Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 4

Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil and Gas

Crystal Ball Oil field Development

Oil Field
Development
Input
Variables
STOIIP
Recovery
Time to
plateau
Well rate
Wells to
drill
Minimum
rate
Discount
factor
Well cost
Facility size
Oil margin
Plateau
ends at
Plateau
rate is

1500.00
42.0
2.00
10.00

Oil Production Profile

mmbbls
%
years
mbd

25
10.00

mbd

10.00

10.00
250.00

$mm
mbd

mmbbls:

2.00

$/bbl

mbd:

Abbreviation
s Used
million barrels
thousand barrels
per day

65.0

% of reserves

$mm:

million dollars

10.0

% of reserves annually

$/bbl:

dollars per barrel

Calculated
values
Reserves
Max
plateau rate
Plateau
rate
Build up
production
Plateau
production
Plateau
ends at
Decline
factor
Production
life
Discounte
d
Reserves
Well Costs
Facilities
Costs
NPV

630.00

mmbbls

172.60

mbd

172.60

mbd

50

70

63.00

mmbbls

100

130

346.50

mmbbls

150

180

years

200

220

250

250

300

270

350

280

7.50
0.2692
18.08

years

379.45

mmbbls

250.00

$mm

250.00

$mm

258.89

$mm

Calculated Production
Profile
Annualize
d
Year

Facilities Costs
Output
(mbd)
Cost ($mm)

Rate
(mbd)

Annual
Productio
n
(mmb)

Objective: maximize 10th percentile

Cumulativ
e
Oil
(mmb)

Cumulativ
e
Discounte
d Oil
(mmb)

57.53

21.00

21.00

21.00

2
3
4
5
6
7

115.07
172.60
172.60
172.60
172.60
172.60

42.00
63.00
63.00
63.00
63.00
63.00

63.00
126.00
189.00
252.00
315.00
378.00

59.18
111.25
158.58
201.61
240.73
276.29

Note: production decline rate


is exponential with the exponent
calculated to produce
remaining reserves.

8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

167.05
132.27
101.06
77.21
58.99
45.07
34.43
26.31
20.10
15.36
11.73
0.83
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

60.97
48.28
36.89
28.18
21.53
16.45
12.57
9.60
7.34
5.61
4.28
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

438.97
487.25
524.14
552.32
573.85
590.30
602.87
612.47
619.81
625.41
629.70
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00
630.00

307.58
330.10
345.74
356.61
364.16
369.40
373.04
375.57
377.32
378.54
379.39
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45
379.45

Fortunately, in our case, the people paying us want our "expert opinions" about
what the possible outcomes are for potential oil field developments. And while
they'd much rather get "good news" from us, they'd much rather have our honest
opinions. Why? Because these projects we're working on in the ultra-deep waters of
the Gulf of Mexico (say 7,500 ft water depth on average) can end up costing
multiple billions of dollars EACH to develop. These could quite literally "make or
break" our company.
The data we have is quite limited, really, and is subject to lots of interpretation by
people like ourselves. So, rather than give just one "most-likely" or "Best Guess"
answer, we really need to be giving management possible RANGES out outcomes.
We typically end up giving what we call a "minimum" answer (greater than a 90%
chance the answer is larger than what we call minimum) and a "maximum" answer
(only a 10% chance the answer is larger than what we call maximum) and a "P50"
answer (equal chance that the answer is less than or greater than what we call
P50).
The thing is, though, the answer we're looking for (ultimately, profitability of the
development of the oil field) is composed of many different things. Things like:
How much oil is in place?
How much of the in place oil will we recover?
At what rates / schedule of production will we recover the oil?
How many wells will it take to recover said oil?
How much will each well cost and how long to drill/complete them?
How much will it cost to build a floating structure and pipelines so the wells can
produce?
And each of those questions, in turn, depends on quite a few parameters that we
only know with varying degrees of uncertainty.
http://www.acousticguitarforum.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-148677.html

oil field development using crystal ball


Crystal Ball Oil field Development
crystal ball oil and gas Triangular Distribution .pdf
http://www.wlu.ca/sbe