DJ ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK -

Majors
Tue Jun 22 19:42:00 EDT 2010
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major
currency pairs today:

Immediate Range Larger Range

USD/JPY 90.30-90.79 89.95-91.10
EUR/USD 1.2241-1.2317 1.2163-1.2353
AUD/USD 0.8700-0.8806 0.8649-0.8832
NZD/USD 0.7014-0.7100 0.7000-0.7119
GBP/USD 1.4752-1.4859 1.4686-1.4936
USD/CHF 1.1032-1.1121 1.0995-1.1137
USD/CAD 1.0223-1.0312 1.0178-1.0337
EUR/JPY 110.86-111.63 110.26-112.45
EUR/GBP 0.8272-0.8325 0.8259-0.8368

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option
strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate as markets await 1815 GMT U.S. FOMC interest rate announcement:
Fed widely expected to keep its key policy rate at record low near zero, market participants will
scrutinize clues from Fed on economic outlook, given many recent U.S. data have been weak.
USD/JPY weighed by selling of yen crosses on inflamed investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge
up 8.72% at 27.05), U.S. stocks losses (DJIA down 1.43%) on surprise 2.2% drop in U.S. May
existing home sales (vs forecast for 5% increase), Richmond Fed report its index of
manufacturing activity slowed to 23 from 26 in May, worries over health of Europe's financial
sector. USD/JPY also undermined by Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields; but losses
tempered by USD demand for import settlements, caution before FOMC announcement due later
today. Data focus: 0600 GMT Japan April revised machine tool orders, 1400 GMT U.S. May
new home sales. USD/JPY daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish,
although latter at oversold; inside-day-range pattern completed yesterday. Support at 90.30
(yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 89.95 (Monday's low), then 89.79 (May 26
low), 89.24 (May 25 low) and 88.98 (May 20 reaction low). Resistance at 90.79 (hourly chart),
then at 91.10 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 91.48 (Monday's high), then
91.82 (June 16 high), 92.11 (June 14 high, near 55-day moving average) and 92.89-92.96 band
(June 4 high-May 18 high).

EUR/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Pair weighed by increased market risk
aversion, worries over euro-zone banking system after Fitch's downgrade of French bank BNP
Paribas on Monday; S&P cautioned about risks faced by Spanish lenders; French bank Credit
Agricole said its Emporiki Bank of Greece unit incurred higher-than-expected loan losses. But
EUR sentiment soothed by better-than-forecast June German Ifo survey (main sentiment index
rose to 101.8 from 101.5 in May, instead of expected fall to 101.0). EUR/USD losses also
tempered by caution before FOMC monetary policy announcement. Data focus: 0610 GMT
German July GfK consumer climate survey, 0730 GMT German June flash PMI, 0800 GMT
Euro-zone June flash PMI. EUR/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics
bearish at overbought. Support at 1.2248-1.2241 band (yesterday's low-Thursday's low); breach
would expose downside to 1.2163 (June 15 low), then 1.2043 (June 11 low) and 1.1954 (June 10
low). Resistance at 1.2317 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 1.2353 (yesterday's
high), then 1.2490 (Monday's high), 1.2672 (May 21 reaction high) and 1.2698 (55-day moving
average).

AUD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by unwinding of long-
AUD carry trades on heightened risk aversion, softer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed
down 1.01 yesterday at 262.68). But AUD/USD losses tempered by Aussie-U.S. yield gap,
caution before U.S. FOMC monetary policy announcement. Focus on China PBOC's USD/CNY
rate setting today & its subsequent trading. "After yesterday's close higher, and ahead of the
weekend's G20 meeting, markets will be looking for another move lower in USD/CNY. If
delivered, this should lead to further gains in Asian and commodity currencies," says BNP
Paribas. AUD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish at overbought.
Support at 0.8700 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 0.8649 (Friday's low), then
0.8580 (June 16-Thursday's lows), 0.8503 (June 15 low) and 0.8422 (June 11 low). Resistance at
0.8806 (hourly chart), then at 0.8832 (yesterday's high) and 0.8859 (Monday's high); breach
would expose upside to 0.8914 (100-day moving average), then 0.8982 (200-day moving
average), psychological 90.00 and 90.26 (May 13 high).

NZD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by unwinding of long-
NZD carry trades on elevated risk aversion, softer commodity prices. But NZD/USD losses
tempered by Kiwi-U.S. yield advantage, caution before U.S. FOMC monetary policy
announcement. NZD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish at
overbought. Support at 0.7014 (Friday's low), then at 0.7000 (100-day moving average); breach
would expose downside to 0.6943 (Thursday's low), then 0.6926 (June 16 low), 0.6883 (June 15
low) and 0.6799 (June 11 low). Resistance at 0.7100 (hourly chat), then at 0.7119 (yesterday's
high); breach would target 0.7152 (Monday's high), then 0.7199 (May 12 high) and 0.7295 (May
10 reaction high).

GBP/USD - to range-trade. Pair undermined by higher market risk aversion; but GBP sentiment
boosted after Fitch called UK government's belt-tightening budget announced yesterday a
"strong statement of intent" that could strengthen confidence in country's AAA credit rating.
Data focus: 0830 GMT June BOE MPC meeting minutes, 1000 GMT UK June CBI distributive
trades survey. GBP/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish at
overbought. Support at 1.4752 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 1.4686
(yesterday's low), then 1.4643 (Thursday's low), 1.4502 (June 11 low), 1.4393 (June 9 low) and
1.4344 (June 8 reaction low). Resistance at 1.4859 (yesterday's high); breach would expose
upside to 1.4936 (Monday's high), then 1.5044-1.5053 band (May 12 high-May 10 high,
matching 100-day moving average) and 1.5125 (previous base set April 28).
USD/CHF - to range-trade. Pair undermined by unwinding of short-CHF carry trades amid
higher risk aversion, CHF purchases on falling EUR/CHF cross (cross hit record low around
1.3580 overnight) after SNB last week signaled further market intervention to halt Swissie's rise
unlikely as deflation no longer a concern; upbeat May Swiss trade data showing exports rose
7.0% for six straight months of increase. But USD/CHF losses tempered by caution before U.S.
FOMC monetary policy announcement. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics
bullish at oversold; inside-day-range pattern completed yesterday. Resistance at 1.1121
(yesterday's high), then at 1.1137 (Monday's high, near 55-day moving average); breach would
expose upside to 1.1246 (previous base set June 16), then 1.1329-1.1339 band (Thursday's high-
June 16 high), 1.1481-1.1488 band (June 15 high-June 14 high) and 1.1546-1.1555 band (June
11 high-June 9 high)). Support at 1.1032 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside
1.0995 (Monday's low), then 1.0938 (100-day moving average), 1.0920 (May 10 reaction low,
near 61.8% Fibonacci correction of 1.0431-1.1730 April 1-June 1 advance) and 1.0898 (previous
cap set Feb. 19).

USD/CAD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Pair underpinned by increased investor risk
aversion, softer commodity & oil prices (July Nymex crude settled down 61 cents yesterday at
$77.21bbl). But USD/CAD gains tempered by caution before U.S. FOMC monetary policy
announcement, expectations BOC will continue to tighten monetary policy gradually in coming
months. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada April retail sales. USD/CAD daily chart mixed as
MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold. Resistance at 1.0312 (Friday's high), then at
1.0337 (Thursday's high) and 1.0360 (June 15 high); breach would target 1.0390 (June 11 high),
then 1.0432 (200-day moving average), 1.0451 (June 10 high) and 1.0517 (June 9 high). Support
at 1.0223 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 1.0178 (yesterday's low), then 1.0133
(Monday's low), 1.0105 (May 13 reaction low), 1.0098 (May 3 low) and 1.0010 (April 29
reaction low).

EUR/JPY - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Cross undermined by unwinding of carry
trades on higher risk aversion, worries over health of Europe's financial sector. Daily chart mixed
as MACD bullish, but stochastics in bearish mode. Support at 110.86 (yesterday's low, matching
June 15 low); breach would expose downside to 110.26 (June 11 low), then 108.94-108.84 band
(June 10 low-June 9 low), 108.32 (June 8 low), 108.06 (9-year low set June 7) and 106.76 (Nov.
8, 2001 reaction low). Resistance at 111.63 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 112.45
(yesterday's high), then 113.41 (Monday's high), 114.16 (June 3 reaction high), 114.40 (May 21
high) and 115.49 (May 18 high).

EUR/GBP - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Cross weighed by worries over health of
euro-zone financial sector, improved GBP sentiment after Fitch's positive comment on UK
emergency budget. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish. Support
at 0.8272 (yesterday's low), then at 0.8259 (June 15 low); breach would expose downside to
0.8206 (19-month low set June 11), then 0.8195 (previous cap set Oct. 24, 2008), psychological
0.8000 and 0.7807 (Oct. 21, 2008 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8325 (hourly chart); breach
would expose upside to 0.8368 (yesterday's high), then 0.8382 (Thursday's high), 0.8419
(previous base set May 27), 0.8532 (55-day moving average) and 0.8547 (May 28 high).
Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow
Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)