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they turn up. And why I cannot accept t h a t my views should be considered to be of a p o l i t i c a l

character. It

arguments which are based on p o l i t i c a l

i s r a t h e r the Halthusian

arguments, i n so f a r as they

presume the maintenance of the present form o f s o c i e t y .

This time my attack was d i r e c t e d against the Club of Rome and the
RIO r e p o r t . Hyrenius i n h i s r e p l y makes i t

a main p o i n t t h a t I ought

to have turned against him as a c o n t r i b u t o r to the Club of Rome i n s t e a d .

To me t h i s d i f f e r e n c e i s w i t h o u t much importance. However, I w i l l

no

doubt i n the f u t u r e remember t h a t Hyrenius i s much more of a Halthusian

than I was aware o f .

THE HUHAN POPULATION MONSTER

by
Norman E.BORLAUG~
Although I have been p r i m a r i l y concerned w i t h a g r i c u l t u r e and food prod u c t i o n , I have, by n e c e s s i t y , developed i n t e r e s t i n the broad f i e l d s
of land use - or misuse - and i n demography.
I f one i s i n v o l v e d i n food p r o d u c t i o n , i t

n a t u r a l l y f o l l o w s t h a t one

must be concerned about the land base upon which we depend f o r food prod u c t i o n . N i n e t y - e i g h t percent of the tonnage of food production, w o r l d wide i n 1975, was produced on the land. Anyone engaged i n attempting
to increase world food production soon comes to r e a l i z e t h a t human misery
r e s u l t i n g from world food shortages and world p o p u l a t i o n growth are p a r t
o f the same problem. In e f f e c t ,

they are two d i f f e r e n t

c o i n . Unless these two i n t e r r e l a t e d

sides of the same

problems and the energy problem are

brought i n t o b e t t e r balance w i t h i n the next several decades, the world

will

become i n c r e a s i n g l y more Chaotic. The s o c i a l ,

cal pressures, and s t r i f e

are b u i l d i n g at d i f f e r e n t

economic and p o l i t i rates i n d i f f e r e n t

c o u n t r i e s of the world, depending upon human population density

and

Excerpted from a paper presented at the Society of American Foresters

N a t i o n a l Convention,October 3,1977.
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growth r a t e , and upon the n a t u r a l resource base t h a t sustains the d i f f e r e n t economies. The poverty i n many of the developing n a t i o n s w i l l
become unbearable. There i s also every l i k e l i h o o d t h a t standards of
living

i n many of the a f f l u e n t nations w i l l

cases r e t r o g r e s s . The t e r r i f y i n g

human p o p u l a t i o n pressures w i l l

v e r s e l y a f f e c t the q u a l i t y of l i f e ,
bald eagle, stork,

stagnate, or even i n some

if

ad-

not the a c t u a l s u r v i v a l of

the

r o b i n , c r o c o d i l e , wildebeest, w o l f , moose, caribou,

lion,

tiger,

elephant, whale, monkey, ape and many other species. In

fact,

world c i v i l i z a t i o n

will

be i n jeopardy.

U n f o r t u n a t e l y , even i n p r i v i l e g e d ,

affluent,

w e l l educated nations

such as the U.S.A., we have r e c e n t l y concerned ourselves unduly with

symptoms by passing new l e g i s l a t i o n ,
panies, i n d i v i d u a l s ,

or f i l i n g

l a w s u i t s a g a i n s t com-

or v a r i o u s government agencies f o r p o l l u t i n g the

environment. Host of these l a w s u i t s j u s t f a t t e n the incomes of lawyers

w i t h o u t s o l v i n g the basic problems. Host of us are e i t h e r a f r a i d t o , o r
are u n w i l l i n g to recognize, c o n f r o n t and e f f e c t i v e l y

f i g h t the under-

l y i n g cause of most of t h i s m a l a i s e . . . t h e Human Population Monster.The

l o n g e r we wait before a t t a c k i n g the primary cause of t h i s problem worldwide - with a serious, i n t e l l i g e n t ,

unemotional, e f f e c t i v e and

humane approach, the fewer of our present species of fauna and f l o r a

will survive.
There is still heated debate about the date man or "near-man" appeared on the planet Earth. Evidence indicates he has been roaming the
earth for at least three million years.
About 12,000 years ago humans discovered agriculture and learned
how to domesticate animals. World population then i$ estimated to have
been approximately 15 million. With a stable food supply, the population
growth rate accelerated. It doubled three times to arrive at a total
of 250 million by the time of Christ. Since the time of Christ, the
first doubling ... to 500 million, occurred in 1,650 years. The second
doubling required only 200 years to arrive at a population of one billion in 1850. That was about the time of the discovery of the nature
and cause of infectious diseases and the dawn of modern medicine...

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which soon began to reduce the death rote. The third doubling of human
population since the time of Christ,

to two biliion, occurred in 1930...

only 80 years after the second doubling. Then sulfa drugs, antibiotics
and improved vaccines were discovered. They reduced deaths spectccularly.
World population doubled again...to four billion p~ople zn 1975.
That took o n l y 45 years and represents an increase of 256_fold - or _
e i g h t (8) doublings since the discovery of a g r i c u l t u r e .
I t i s obvious t h a t the f o o d / p o p u l a t i o n r a t i o and competition between
species i s worsening d r a m a t i c a l l y a~ the mJmbers o f humans increase so
f r i g h t e n i n g l y . And the i n t e r v a l between doublings of human p o p u l a t i o n
continues to shorten. At the c u r r e n t world r a t e of population growth,
population w i l l

double again in the next 37 years, reaching e i g h t b i l l i o n

souls by 2015!
This means t h a t in the next 37 years, world Food and f i b e r production
must be increased more than i t

was ~ncreased i n the 12,C00 year p e r i o d

from the discovery of a g r i c u l t u r e up to 1975. I t also c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e s

the urgency of d e a l i n g e f f e c t i v e l y and humanely with the Human Popul a t i o n Monster.

This is a tremendous undertaking, and of vital importance to the

future of civilization. Failure will plunge the world into economic,
social and political chaos. Can the production of food and fiber be
doubled in the next 37 years? I believe it can, providing world governments give high enough priority and continuing support to agriculture
and forestry.

It cannot be achieved with the miserly and discontinuous

support that has been given to agriculture and forestry during the past
50 years.
We must expand our scientific knowledg e and improve and apply better
technology if we are to make our finite land and water

resources more

productive. This must be done promptly and in an orderly way if we are

to meet growing needs without, at the same time, unnecessarily degrading the environment and crowding many species into extinction.

Producing

more food and fiber, and protecting the environment can, at best, be
only a holding operation while the population monster is being tamed.
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Moreover, we must recognize that in the transition period, unless we

succeed in increasing the production of basic necessities to meet growing human needs, the world will become more and more chaotic. Civilization may collapse.
"Human rights" is a utopian issue and a noble goal to work toward.
But it can never be achieved as long as hundreds of millions of poverty stricken people in the world lack the necessities of life. The"right

to d i s s e n t " doesn't mean much to a person with an empty stomach,

s h i r t l e s s back, a r o o f l e s s d w e l l i n g , the f r u s t r a t i o n s and fear of unemployment and poverty, the lack of education and o p p o r t u n i t y and the
pain, misery and l o n e l i n e s s of sickness w i t h o u t medical care. tty work
has brought me i n t o close contact with such people and I hove come to
believe that all who are born into the world have the moral right to
the basic ingredients for a decent human life. How many should be born

and how f a s t they should come on stage is another matter.

20151

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,--I

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ra 4 . 0 ~-i

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BC

BC

BC

AC

2 000
AC

+ Beginning of Agriculture
~-~ Beginning of Modern Medicine
III Discovery of Modern Drugs
Figure: World Demographic Growth and Food, Fiber and Forest Product Needs.

111