Global & Thailand

Economic Outlook

2017
December 2016

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MAIN THESIS
GDP 2017 3.4% ( 2016 3.1%) Emerging Market (EM)
EM ASEAN-5
, , 2017 Developed
Market (DM)
(1)

Left

8.0

4.8

Right

: IMF World Economic

Outlook,

5.4
3.1

4.0
0.0

20
3.4

10

0
2010
2016
2017
2000
2010
2016
2017
Europe Union United States Japan
ASEAN-5 World
1 GDP (Left, %) GDP GDP (Right, %)
2000

 () GDP Growth 2017 1) 2)

3) FED 4)
5) (Geo-political Tension)

28
24

Tradable Goods

OPEC

( 2)

20
16
12
8
4
0
-4

: IMF World Economic

Outlook,

1990
World

2000
2010
2016
2017
United States Europe Union China Japan
2 (%)

IMF
Inflation Expectations Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
.. 2016 BOJ
(Monetary Base) Quality and Quantity Easing
with Yield Curve Control 28.1
trn
80
BOJ
Yield Curve BOJ
Forward-looking 2.0%
2.0%
Inflation Expectations

FED (Holston et. al., 2016)
FED

Macroprudentials
/ Policy Option

CNBC.com


2017

DM 2017 2
50 bps 1-1.25% FED 2.875 %
2008 DM

DM
(Monetary Policy Normalization)
EM

2017

0.5-1.0%
GDP DM
: IMF World Economic Outlook,

Japan

229.2
EM
Italy
United Europe

132.7
States Union Canada
EM
104.17 85.2 91.5 Germany
71.2
China
Thailand

43.9
44.4
60 Threshold level


3 GDP (%) 2015
( 3)

21

21

( )



Spratly
Exclusive Economic
Zone (EEZ)
(1982)

NATO

( Economic Note 2016 )





2017

(Brexit) Trump

Protectionism

2017

12 ..

26 ..
(Hong Kong Chief
Executive)
25 ..

11 ..

..
..
..
.
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

12 ..
16

26 ..

3 2017

www.trumpstump2016.com

2
0
1
7
E
C
O
N
K
E
Y
P
O
I
N
T
S

United States (US) : 2.2% Turn around

Europe Union (EU) : 3/2016

Japan (JP) : 0.6% 0.5% 2016

China (CH) : Rebalancing

6.5% 6.2%
Thailand (TH) : 3.2% 2017

:
: OPEC

The Federal Reserve (FED) : ..

The European Central Bank (ECB) Bank of Japan (BOJ) :

The Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) : Macroprudential

Policies

Bank of Thailand (BOT) : 1.5% 2017

: (China Hard-landing)
(Geo-political Tension)
2017

U
n
i
t
e
d
S
t
a
t
e
s

Boosted by Fiscal Spending

( .. 16)
4.9 %

2014

( .. 16)
1.6%
Core PCE 1.7%

3 0.8 %

2.0%
FED

GDP 3/2016
2.9% (QoQ saar)

3/2016

2.2% 2017 1.6% 2016

2017

(FED) FED .. 2
2017 Key Highlights Trump
1)
, 2)
, 3)
, 4) , 5)
,
,
(Multilateral Trade Negotiation) TPP (Trans- Pacific Partnership:
) (Bilateral Trade
Negotiation)

2017

ECONOMIC
PROJECTION

GDP
Growth

Core
PCE

Current
Acc Bal

Unemployment

2.2% 1.9% -2.6% 4.7%

J
a
p
a
n

Stable Growth

( .. 16)
3.0% ( 4 4.2%)
( .. 16)
0.1%
( FED )
-0.5%

GDP 3/2016 2.2%

QoQ saar
0.7% QoQ saar

GDP 3/2016

Supplementary Budget GDP

0.4-0.5% GDP

(Supplementary Budget)
0.6% 2017 DM
2017 2016

Turn 2017 2016 2016 (
)

2017

Saving Culture
(Supplementary Budget)
2/2017 BOJ BOJ
(Yield Curve Control)
2.0% 2 BOJ
BOJ
QQE

2017

ECONOMIC
PROJECTION

GDP
Growth

Core
PCE

Current
Acc Bal

Unemployment

0.6% 0.5% 3.5% 3.0%

E
u
r
o
z
o
n
e

Political Risk Looming

( .. 16)
10.0% ( 4
12.1% 2013
11.2%)
( .. 16)
0.5%

2016

GDP 2/2016 3/2016

0.3% (QoQ)


3/2016 (GDP 0.3% QoQ sa)


.. (ECB)
(Tapering)
.. ECB
( .. 2017)

2017

(Anti-establishment)

EU 2017

1:1
Support , ,

2017 2015-2016 1.5% 2017
2016 1.7%

(%)

2017

ECONOMIC
PROJECTION

GDP
Growth

Core
PCE

Current
Acc Bal

Unemployment

1.5% 1.3% 2.9% 9.8%

C
h
i
n
a

Rebalancing Continues

( .. 16)
4.05 %
( .. 16)
2.1%
2
1.2% YoY

GDP 2/2016 3/2016

6.7% (YoY)

(Overcapacity Reduction)

(Economic
Rebalancing)
Overcapacity


PBoC

2017 (Purchasing
Manager Index: PMI)
2017


2017 6.2% 6.7% 2016
6.0%

2017

ECONOMIC
PROJECTION

GDP
Growth

Core
PCE

Current
Acc Bal

Unemployment

6.2% 2.1% 2.5% 4.1%

T
h
a
i
l
a
n
d

Same Old Same Old

( .. 16)
0.87%

( .. 16)
0.6%
0.72%

1/2016

GDP 2/2016 3/2016

3.5% (YoY) 3.2% (YoY)

(3.5% YoY) (6.3%

YoY) Driver 3/2016

2016

3.2% 2017 2016 2015

2.8% 1.5%
1)


, 2)

2017 2016 2015

3.2 3.2
2.8
, 3) GDP
2.9 2.7
2.1
Private Consumption
1.4 1.9 -2.0
Private Investment
2.6 2.8
2.2
Public Consumption
Public Investment
4.7 9.7 29.8
Exports
1.0 -1.4 -5.6
2016 , 4) Imports
1.8 -3.5 -11.3
0.4 Headline Inflation
1.5 0.3 -0.9
(Target at 2.5%+1.5%)
-1.4%

2017

ECONOMIC
PROJECTION

GDP
Growth

Core
PCE

Current
Acc Bal

Unemployment

3.2% 1.5% 6.4% 1.0%