Passes Per Possession: An Eye Opening Metric Don Sicko

Sometimes events happen in such a way as to smack one in the face with a realization of an
obvious premise that one has always known. Witness the following three illustrations:

In a recent high-school game, the head coach and his assistants must have yelled the
instruction, Move the ball at least 100 times. And move the ball, they did. Every time,
the ball was stuck for any reason, the staff hollered the mantra, the ball moved and
something good tended to happen. Honestly, the team in question really is no more than fair
but for their efforts, they beat a better team.

In a recent Sports Illustrated article on the Los Angeles Clippers excellent start to the 201617 season, it was mentioned that they were averaging 306 passes per game, illustrating how
well the Clippers were sharing the ball this season. (The league average is 301.5 and the
Golden St. Warriors average 311 passes a game). As of Dec 15, the Clippers were
averaging 100.5 possessions a game which happens to be a moderate NBA tempo. Simple
math tells us the Clippers are averaging about 3 passes a possession. Simple math also tells
us that to average 3 passes a possession, a team has to have a fairly high number of 4, 5 and
6 pass possessions to counter the no pass and 1 pass possessions that one gets after
turnovers and fast breaks. Quite frankly, five and six pass possessions during a 24 second
shot clock is really moving and sharing the ball. For their efforts, the Clippers are 19-7 on
12-15-16 and they were 15-10 a year ago.

In a mid-November LA Times article, it was mentioned that Lakers Coach Luke Walton on
some nights had his team passing up to 20 more times a game than they did last season,
when they were just about dysfunctional. Up to that point of the season, they were 3-1 in
games where they hit 300 or more passes and of their 5 losses at that point, 4 came with
game pass totals under 300 passes. (By the way, the high school and college equivalents of
300 passes are 201 passes and 250 passes, respectively. In the case of the high school
figure, it doesnt take into account the absence of a shot clock). For their efforts, the Lakers
are 10-18 this year and were 3-21 on the same date last year.

The suggestion here might be one of two options for a coach who already doesnt do so, to try
his hand at counting passes before committing totally.
1. Take an earlier game film and count the number of passes each possession and the
consequence- FG, fouled, good shot, bad shot, turnover. Add up shots for a game total and
assess overall games offensive performance.
2. Have a trusted someone chart passes per possession in your next practice or two and
evaluate the consequences. Establish correlations. Are higher number pass possessions
generally better than lower pass possessions?
Like any stat, passes per possession can be empty if the goal is just the stat. Attacking and
getting good looks is obviously the real goal and number of passes can be a means to an end.

Reflection and Summary After Put into Action JB

As most of you know I am about as big of a football (soccer) enthusiast as I am
basketball so I tend to look at trends in both sports. When I first read this article my first
thoughts were Barcelona, Chelsea, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. When these clubs
possess the ball it is truly beautiful. So I decided to do some research to see if the
hypothesis above held true in football as it did in the NBA.
Interesting enough, the Top 10 passing teams in the world are all in top two spots in their
respective leagues.

The closest statistic I could find for NCAA Mens Division I basketball was assists per
game. Spot on with the top 10 in the football world, all but one of the top 10 teams in
NCAA Division 1 Mens Basketball were ranked in the Top 25.

Last night, before our game, I decided to use our JV team as a guinea pig and chart our
passes per possession and see what the end result was for each. Now youll see from the
first quarter that it was clearly my first time doing this as the system wasnt very effective
when first put into place.
When the second quarter began I decided to use this system. All possessions would be
charted with whole numbers instead of tallies, if the number was underlined, the
possession ended with a turnover. If the number was circled it was a made basket or lead
to free throws and if the number had a F under it, it was a fast break.

Statistical Breakdown/Summary
1st Quarter: We passed the ball 53 times and zero turnovers and finished the quarter +8 in
scoring. (17-9)
2nd Quarter: We passed the ball 48 times. 4/5 possessions where we passed the ball 4 or
more times in a possession we scored or were fouled. On 11 possessions where we
passed the ball 3 or less times we either turned the ball over or did not score. The only
time we scored with 3 or less passes were on two fast breaks. We had 3 turnovers and
finished the quarter -1 in scoring. (28-21)
Half Time: 28-21 101 Passes
3rd Quarter: We passed the ball 48 times. 2/4 possessions where we passed the ball 4 or
more times in a possession we scored or were fouled. On 11 possessions where we
passed the ball 3 or less times we either turned the ball over or did not score. Again the
only times we did score with 3 or less passes were on four fast breaks. We had 8
turnovers and finished the quarter -18 in scoring. (38-49)
4th Quarter: We passed the ball 58 times. 6/6 possessions where we passed the ball 4 or
more times in a possession we either scored or were fouled. 12/12 times where we
passed the ball 3 times or less we either turned the ball over or didnt score. Sticking
with the theme, the only times we did score with 3 or less passes were on three fast
breaks. We had 8 turnovers and finished the quarter -2 in scoring. (57-70)
Final: 57-70 207 passes and 19 turnovers

After reviewing this from last night, it was one of the most eye opening statistical
breakdowns I have ever seen. Shane Battier says that analytics are simply a tool that we
should use to make our teams better and not something that we should rely on. I agree
with him whole heartedly and I believe this may be one of the best tools to use for your
team. In addition, I think I am going to finalize my system as such:
Whole numbers
Circle around the number = a made basket
Underlined number = a turnover
F under the number = a foul
B under the number = a fast break