Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Economic Behavior
The eld of organization, although by nature interdisciplinary, has become increasingly fragmented with limited eorts to integrate and compare the various economic, social, and
business-oriented perspectives. Organization and Economic Behavior is the rst attempt to
present all the basic elements of organization theory and behavior relevant for understanding
and improving economic organization. Anna Grandori oers a dialogue between the diering
approaches with a strong focus on reintegrating sociological, psychological, and economic
contributions with the notion of organization.
This unique volume is clearly written and designed to address a wide audience. It will be an
invaluable resource for students, featuring the following material:
Organization and
Economic Behavior
Anna Grandori
Contents
........................................................................................
Preface
vii
Introduction I
Organization:
Comparing
A Problem, a Discipline
Introduction II
183
Methodological
Mechanisms
212
Part III
Forms of Organization
217
A Definition
of Organization Form
8
Part I
The Actor
A Definition
19
21
54
An Actor with
Multiple Rationalities
253
10
300
11
334
12
84
Organization
Conclusion to Part III
Part II
Coordination Mechanisms
220
of the Actor
Conclusion to Part I
17
9
Introduction to Part I
219
375
Economic
89
412
A Definition
of Coordination
91
Glossary
418
99
Further Reading
432
113
Notes
437
Teams
135
Bibliography
444
Negotiation
156
Index
467
Preface
........................................................................................
This book is a revised version of a volume
originally published in Italian in 1995, now
published both in Italian and in English. It
formalizes an exposition of what I think are
the main tenets of organization science, it is
based on both teaching and research experiences, and it is directed to both students and
scholars, who can read it according to their
dierent interests.
To intermediate/advanced business students it intends to oer a unitary and
problem-solving oriented treatment of the
eld. The challenges of using as few as possible key concepts and of not changing
assumptions implicitly according to the problem at hand, are taken to heart. The need for
exible minds capable of creating suitable
and if necessary new solutions to organizational problems is responded to by focusing
on learning what type of causal relations govern the organizational world rather than on
providing recipes and pre-dened solutions
which are likely to be quite short lived. Active
learning is sustained by case studies, simulations, and exercises; this material can be
adapted, integrated, or substituted easily with
analogues more suitable to particular times
and places. For example, at Bocconi University, where the book has been used on a
large scale in Italy, not only teachers but even
vii
Preface
..................................................................................................................................................
The funds provided by the Italian Ministery of University and Scientic Research
have made this editorial project nancially
feasible. The English translation grew out of
step-wise work: I thank Jene Chaloux and
Bryan Mundell for having produced the rst
English version of the original 1995 Italian
book, and Professor Timothy Keates for having corrected the whole new text after my
revisions.
A special thanks is due to those who have
had a direct individual involvement in the
genesis of the book, in dierent ways. I do
not know if I would ever have undertaken
such a venture without the encouragement and support I received from Andrea
Rugiadini one of the founders of the organizational scientic community in Italy, my
former professor and mentor.
Most of the case study materials in the
book are original and have been produced
specically for the book by colleagues at Bocconi University, at the University of Modena
and Reggio Emilia, and in other universities
Luigi Golzio, Massino Neri, Giuseppe Soda,
Giuseppe Delmestri, Silvia Bagdadli, Roberto Ravagnani, Davide Ravasi, Ferdinando
Pennarola, Massimo Pilati, Francesco
Paoletti as well as by some former students
who graduated with me Federico Mazzoli,
Christian Montermini, Massimiliano Mollona. Authorship is acknowledged in each
box.
Barbara Balbiani secretary at the Bocconis Center of Research on Business Organization contributed with her usual patience
and common sense in handling the most delicate graphical problems.
To what extent so many valuable contributions are successfully integrated into the text
is naturally only my responsibility.
Anna Grandori
March 2000
Introduction I
........................................................................................
PURPOSE OF THE BOOK
..................................................................................................................................................
Introduction I
..................................................................................................................................................
personal teaching, I use as entrances to any of
the treated topics before oering conceptualizations. For reasons of space, however, case
studies and illustrations have been limited to
those that are more specic to the argument
developed in this text. The boxes support a
teaching-oriented use of the book and can be
skipped in many cases by expert readers. However, almost all of them are based on empirical
research, and are not hypothetical situations.
Hence, they also provide some empirical support for the theses expounded, especially in the
less conventional passages.
This book is not meant as exclusive
material for specialists of organization in the
professional sense (such as personnel managers) but is directed to all persons interested
in understanding and reshaping organization
arrangements, in the broader eld of business
administration. It oers more interpretative
and design models than techniques, though,
taking seriously the idea that contemporary
education needs to form exible cultures
minds that are not programmed to act in particular ways, but that are equipped to change
the way of acting. The themes are those that
one could nd anywhere in organized action:
when to set up an authority? when and how to
use groups? how to evaluate and reward work
services? why are some rms big and others
small? what problems might we expect in a
rm organized by divisions? is it better to
make or buy? how can these problems be
governed?
Lastly, the book can be read from the
perspective of any actor participating in
organized systems and not only from a
governance perspective. To that extent, the
book speaks both to people or groups who
are trying to nd strategies to live in organized systems as well as to those who have or
will have the responsibility of governing
larger or smaller systems.
AN EXTENDED DEFINITION OF
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
..................................................................................................................................................
Introduction I
..................................................................................................................................................
shall refer to not to organizations (plural)
but to the organization (singular). And
since we shant speak of organizations as
that which lies within, neither shall we
speak of environments as that which lies
outside and is dened by being excluded
from the organization. Organization appears
to be a way of doing something rather than
one thing. But doing what? Organization as
a way-of-doing requires a predicate:
organization of . . .?
(b): It seems to me that one often speaks of
organization of labor: organization is a
way of working, dividing labor, controlling it,
linking the various tasks.
(d): Hm . . .? Historically speaking, labor
carries the meaning of exaction of energy, of
eort, of human toil. I dont think its the
right predicate . . . its too restrictive. For
instance, there are other resources than
human ones that combine to generate activity.
I think that the combination of dierent
resources to generate valuable activities and
outputs is an organizational problem par
excellence. Wouldnt organization of
resources and activities be better?
(e): In that case, one should also add the
organization of rel-ations, of cooper-ations,
of trans-actions . . .
(C): Well then, lets speak of actions and
relations among persons, groups, rms. But
are we speaking of all the kinds of actions
and relations? Aective life? Enjoyment? The
organization we are speaking of here does not
include the organization of biological systems
or the organization of the life of a couple, or
that of churches. In eect, certain dierences
among disciplines stem precisely from the fact
that one is dealing with the organization of
dierent systems. Some abstract and basic
ideas on the nature of organization as a
special conguration of nodes and relations
may be common to dierent natural and
..................................................................................................................................................
Introduction I
..................................................................................................................................................
respect to the direction we have taken in this
discussion, from organization to actors is
outlined in Figure I.1. In the course of the
book, each part will be enlarged and enriched
with details.
ORGANIZATION OF THE BOOK
..................................................................................................................................................
models, is conducted at a general and conceptual level. The other chapters in Part III
apply the general framework as relevant to
dierent problems and levels of analysis.
Chapters 9 and 10 address the problem at the
micro level of the organization of work;
Chapter 11 at the level of the macrostructure of the rm; and Chapter 12 at the
Introduction II
........................................................................................
This introduction is especially directed to
those who already have a perception of the
eld and may otherwise nd unusual the way
in which the material they know is employed
in the book, or may wonder why some perspectives and ideas are included and some are
not. Students interested in gaining a deeper
understanding of the conceptual texture of
the eld can eventually read it after the book.
FROM UNIVERSAL LAWS TO
CONDITIONAL PROPOSITIONS
..................................................................................................................................................
The eld is, however, broken up by deeper divides. The most serious of these is certainly the
10
Introduction II
..................................................................................................................................................
rational, but only intendedly so. Bounded
rationality theory provided the cognitive
foundations for the development of a relatively autonomous organizational and
behavioral science. However, it has ended by
sharpening unnecessary divisions with its
contrast between absolute and bounded
rationality. For the concept of bounded
rationality is very vast and in certain respects
ambiguous, for two reasons: (1) various components and sub-models were intermingled in
Simons elaborations, from which, in fact, different perspectives have developed; (2) in
Simons original work there was some ambiguity as to whether bounded rationality
should be considered a universal assumption,
rival and alternative to that of economic
optimizing rationality, or a model of decision
behavior contingently albeit frequently
observed outside of the restrictive conditions
required by value maximizing. Unfortunately,
the most common interpretation has been the
rst universalistic one, with the result of
sharpening the divide between economic and
behavioral models of organization, and
between forms of organization based on the
two contrasting models of economic man
and administrative man. These two diculties are resolved in this book as follows.
1 Among the bounds or limits to human
rationality considered by Simon there was not
only the nite computational capacity of the
human brain, considered the most precious
scarce resource that can be allocated to dierent uses, which has become the most widely
used notion of bounded rationality. There
was also the acknowledgment of some more
epistemic problems that echoed and in some
cases anticipated other contributions on the
nature of rationality in general and economic
rationality in particular: the recognition of
the intrinsic fallibility of human judgments
and knowledge, of the models of the world
..................................................................................................................................................
of economics, charged with being less realistic and less predictive of observed economic behaviors, has contributed to creating
what will be considered here an unnecessarily
profound divide. For there is no such thing as
an absolute knowledge or absolute
rationality, to the extent that all human
knowledge is fallible and any form of rationality is bounded (Popper 1935; Russell
1948; Simon 1977). There can be dierent
decision behaviors, or strategies, which treat
information in dierent ways and therefore
are applicable under dierent circumstances
(Grandori 1984). In particular, as von Hayek
(1945) stated with impressive clarity,
decentralized prot-maximizing decisions
based on quantied information condensed
into prices, can be highly ecient under
appropriate circumstances exactly because
this economizes on bounded rationality
(Williamson 1975), rather than because it
realizes some form of global or objective
rationality. In fact, the immensely complex
problem of the coordination of an economy
is thereby decoupled into very simple ones, a
huge amount of information can be neglected, and communication can be avoided
altogether. The most interesting question is,
then, under what circumstances can value
maximizing decision strategies be predicted
and prescribed, and under what circumstances do other strategies become not only
more likely but also more advisable?
James March is perhaps the sole matre
penser in organization who clearly suggested that rationality is polymorphic and
contingent (1978: 604): Calculated rationality . . . is only one of several forms of intelligence, each with claim of legitimacy.
Learned behavior, with its claim to summarize an irretrievable but relevant personal
history, or conventional behavior and rules,
with their claims to capture the intelligence
12
Introduction II
..................................................................................................................................................
empirical regularities to be discovered and
documented, rather than as assumptions on
which theories can be based.
TRANSLATIONS BETWEEN PARADIGMS
..................................................................................................................................................
Introduction II
..................................................................................................................................................
will and redistribute resources to ones own
advantage (Marglin 1974; Francis 1983). In
this sense, a power criterion does make a difference with respect to eciency and fairness
criteria. Supposing that there is no incentive
to impose a solution that can be improved
both for oneself and for others, still one party
(typically because it is much less substitutable
than others) may be able to impose an
arrangement in which it captures all the surplus created by cooperation or exchange and
gives others their minimum acceptable reward
rather than their fair share. These arrangements undoubtedly can exist. However, if and
when this is the diagnosis, scholars of almost
all perspectives would agree that these
arrangements are to be proscribed rather than
prescribed and that remedies should be found.
The point of disagreement is not in the theoretical model whether organization is shaped
by power or eciency but in the substantive
and empirical assessment of whether a particular organizational solution at a particular
time does or does not have eciency and
fairness properties. For example, it has been
harshly debated whether the substitution of
putting-out relations for the integrated factory in the nineteenth century has led to a
more ecient system of production or to the
establishment of a dominance relationship
and the redistribution of surplus to one party.
By an irony of history, the more recent return
to putting-out in many modern mass production industries has raised the same question:
whether the externalization of production,
rather than its internalization, has led to
superior eciency or has merely allowed
large rms to avoid unionization costs and
reappropriate larger surplus shares by
squeezing subcontractors and putter-outers.
Whatever the response may be, it must be
empirical, because these are observational
propositions. And whatever the response may
..................................................................................................................................................
16
Part I
The Actor
........................................................................................
Introduction to Part I
........................................................................................
A theory of the organization of economic
action calls for a model of how human beings
are believed to behave in economic actions. In
fact, the concept of actor is widely used in
organization. But why do we speak of actors
and not more simply of individuals of persons? There is a reason, and it relates to a
basic methodological aspect of a discipline
the elementary unit of analysis.
Economics is very clear in this regard. The
elementary unit of analysis is the individual.
Individuals are in fact the legitimate owners
of interests and rights. These are also deemed
to be the not further divisible units in which
preferences and subjective utilities are
formed. It is the principle of methodological
individualism: every socio-economic formation that is more complex than the individual
must be explained and justied starting from
individuals who are free to order alternatives and states of the world according to
preference, on the basis of the consequences
for their own interests (Schumpeter 1942;
Arrow 1951).
From sociology there have arisen methodological conceptions that are opposed to
methodological individualism. In a famous
essay, Wrong (1961) contrasted the undersocialized view of actors in economics with
an oversocialized conception prevailing in
Part I
The Actor
..................................................................................................................................................
20
Chapter 1
........................................................................................
Two main structural features of actors can
explain economic behavior in so far as it
depends on actors: what they know and are
capable of doing (knowledge and competence) and what they want (their preferences and interests). These two elements
substantiate the identity of an actor the
response to the questions: Who am I? What
can I do? What do I wish to do? whether the
actor is individual or collective. In this
perspective, an entity can be treated as an
actor if it perceives itself as, or acts as if it
were, on a certain matter, a unit of preference
and knowledge.1 Figure 1.1 outlines the
conceptual structure of the chapter.
THE ECONOMIC ACTOR AND THE
STRUCTURE OF KNOWLEDGE
Part 1
The Actor
..................................................................................................................................................
KNOWLEDGE AND COMPETENCE
PREFERENCE
Paradigmatic
Procedural
Substantive-declarative
Framing problems
Generating alternatives and consequences
Assessing probabilities
Learning from experience
CONSEQUENCES
Communication and decision premises
Figure 1.1 Knowledge and preference
Chapter 1
..................................................................................................................................................
of observed phenomena, hypothesize correlations among phenomena, and dene economic problems; and of cognitive schemes
which direct their attention, dening categories of subjects and objects and evaluating
them positively or negatively.
Examples of basic assumptions about economic behavior are: Is the economic
environment an external given, or can it be
modied? Is work a costly activity or is it
benecial for the person who does it? Are
other economic actors potential competitors
or potential partners? (Schein 1985). Why is
this type of knowledge present? Does it have
any positive property? What are its organizational consequences? What are its limits?
Logicians and cognitive scientists have
stressed the technical impossibility or the disproportionate cost of insisting on directly
and knowingly checking all information and
options on which human beings in general,
and economic actors in particular, base their
own conduct. It is sensible to trust teachers,
to rely on past experience, to accept good
rules of thumb. It would be neither convenient nor feasible to start from scratch each
time, rechecking all the information and
assumptions on which inherited knowledge is
based; and if it were attempted, it would
entail enormous risks of error and inferior
performance with respect to other actors
(Bandura 1986). On this basis, a process of
natural selection could even be expected to
occur, in which unreceptive subjects would be
eliminated in economic action while the number of docile ones in the population would
increase (Simon 1990). In this way, a species of economic actors possessing the trait
of docility, or a capacity to accept a cumulated knowledge base, would even be privileged in the competition for survival.
However, each of us, as human beings,
economic actors, and informal scientists in
Part 1
The Actor
..................................................................................................................................................
Box 1.1
Physicians, generals, and
videotapes
How can the knowledge of a particular battle tactic help us to solve a medical problem? Gick and Holyoak conducted important experiments on the eectiveness of
transferring knowledge and models to solve new problems. The following is a wellknown experiment: suppose that you are a doctor and you are dealing with a patient
who has been diagnosed with stomach cancer. It is impossible to operate; however,
there is a kind of radiation that can destroy the tumor if administered at high intensity. Unfortunately the high intensity of the radiation would at the same time destroy
the good organs and tissues aected by the radiation; at a lower intensity, good tissues
would not be damaged but the radiation would not be enough to cure the patient.
How do you cure the patient without damaging the good organs and tissues?
In their experiment, Gick and Holyoak posed this problem to groups of subjects. In
order to provide these groups with source models, they were told dierent versions of
a military incident. A general wants to capture a fort centrally located in a region.
There are several roads that lead to the fort but they are all mined, so although small
groups could go through with few risks, a larger contingent would certainly cause the
mines to explode. However, the general needs all his troops in order to launch the
winning attack against the fort. The dierent versions of the story oer dierent
conclusions. In one version, for example, the general discovers an unguarded road that
leads to the fort and sends all his troops along that route. In another version, the
general divides his troops into several small groups and sends them simultaneously
along all the routes so that they nally meet at the fort.
The subjects in the experiment turned out to be particularly sensitive to the source
model that was presented to them in the form of a military incident. For example, about
75 percent of those who heard the version of the story where the general divides his
troops came up with the correct solution to the medical problem apply low-intensity
radiation to the stomach from several directions, so as to pass only a limited amount of
radiation through each healthy organ. On the other hand, only 10 percent of those
people who were not told about the source model came up with the correct solution. It is
interesting to note that all those who were presented with various versions of the story
tended to develop dierent solutions. For example, those who read the version of the
unattended route tended to suggest solutions based on the identication of an open
passage i.e. the esophagus through which the high-intensity radiation could be given.
The Gick and Holyoak experiment enables us to understand the structure of competence transfer, as well as giving us a language to describe and analyze it. We can use
these initial tools to reconstruct a richer and more complex example that might be
faced by rms on a daily basis. The case of the development of the market for videotapes has gained a lot of attention, because of the disparity of competitive results
among those rms that had rst invested in product research, and the others that
came into the market as technological followers. The video cassette recorder (VCR)
case can be interpreted as a parable on the advantages of arriving late, and on the risks
faced by technological pioneers. However, in light of the concept of knowledge transfer, the case can be interpreted in a very dierent way.
24
Chapter 1
..................................................................................................................................................
The two largest groups of rms that have created the VCR market highlight two
dierent source models concerning innovation processes which led these organizations to focus their eorts very dierently. On the one hand, because of their own
previous experience in radio and television broadcasting, the rst VCR pioneers (RCA
and Ampex) initially concentrated their eorts on high-performance and high-cost
recording tools aimed primarily at the market for technical instruments for television
broadcasting. Later, however, they found themselves unable to reconvert such technologies to products for the large consumer market (primarily owing to manufacturing innovation problems.) On the other hand, the rst followers in the development
process (JVC, Sony, Matsushita) focused their eorts on developing a product aimed
at the mass consumer market. As a result of these dierent objectives (reecting the
dierent routines, competences, and experiences of the rms), RCA and Ampex concentrated their eorts on sporadic research on important technological breakthroughs. JVC, Sony, and Matsushita, instead, continuously focused the process on
developing a product that could be produced cheaply and on market research, owing
to their experience as manufacturers of mass-produced electronics. As a result of
these dierent technological strategies, RCA and Ampex found themselves excluded
from the window of opportunity when it was eectively open during the second
half of 1970.
The VCR case illustrates the sensitivity of strategic decisions of rms on their
competences and accumulated experience (Prahalad and Hamler 1990.) Like the
experimental subjects of Gick and Holyoak, rms have been exposed to dierent
source models and have thus developed dierent representations of the problem to be
solved and dierent behavioral strategies. The future of rms largely depends on their
ability to use their own past intelligently.
Source: Warglien (1990).
Part 1
The Actor
..................................................................................................................................................
Chapter 1
..................................................................................................................................................
Box 1.2
The potter
Imagine observing a potter at work. On the shelves we can admire vases of various
colors and shapes. To produce these pieces, the potters job consists of various steps:
s/he works the clay with the hands in order to obtain a lump, making sure that it is of
the right consistency and has the appropriate degree of moisture; s/he then works the
clay on the wheel to the desired shape, using the hands to correct small imperfections;
in order to create spouts and handles, s/he uses special spatulas and tools; s/he then
puts the vase into the oven for the rst ring, taking care that the temperature is set
correctly and that the vase is at the proper distance from the re. If necessary, s/he res
the vase a second time. S/he then proceeds to decorate the vase, picking and choosing
various colors. The potter evaluates the results obtained during each step of the work;
if the piece is not satisfactory in terms of quality or shape, it is discarded. We label
the potter as having a practical knowledge which allows him/her to feel the quality
of the material that s/he uses, the consistency of the mixture of clay, the
appropriateness of a decoration, and the eects that colors have on the clay. S/he
knows that for dierent kinds of products and shapes, dierent kinds of clay are
necessary, or alternatively that the mixture may change. The potter has a varied
portfolio of models to choose from which can, however, be adapted to various needs
upon request. When s/he works at the wheel, s/he knows what the pressure of his/her
hands should be in shaping a piece and how to allow, with hands and ngers, for any
possible imperfection; s/he also knows how best to synchronize and coordinate the
various steps in such a way as to make the most ecient use of time. S/he is able to
achieve the goal of producing a good piece based on certain design criteria, the
characteristics of the material used, and the kinds of tools utilized. As in the case of
the ski-instructor (see Box 1.3), the potter is an example of someone perfectly in
synchronization with a continuous cycle of actions and steps, in which the material,
the tools, the hand movements, the knowledge, and the actions constitute a single,
consistent system.
Source: Lanzara (1992).
Part 1
The Actor
..................................................................................................................................................
Box 1.3
The ski-instructor
By observing a ski-instructor descending a slope we can evaluate without hesitation the instructors level of ability, and thus we know that we are not dealing
with an amateur. We appreciate the correctness of the instructors position, the
harmony and the uidity of the movements, the smoothness with which the turns
are coordinated, and the way the instructor controls and maneuvers skis and poles
according to the characteristics and the diculty of the slope (steepness, curves,
etc.) We also notice the expert skiers ability to correct any mistakes or react to
dicult moments. What impresses us is the elegance and the spontaneous way in
which such experts ski, as well as their lightness, which makes it all seem eortless.
The skiers practical knowledge what is referred to as knowing how to ski is
in part codied within the sensory-motor skills, in such a way that the skiers
muscle behavior responds instantly and almost automatically to the signs and the
characteristics of the slope. Thus, one could almost say that the skiers behavior
functionally complements the technical characteristics of the tools employed
(skis, poles, booths) and the morphological peculiarities of the slope. However, the
skiers competence also lies in the ability to anticipate what comes next, such as
identifying what the toughest sections of the slope are, evaluating snow conditions,
and choosing the easiest and least dangerous route to descend the hill. It is obvious
that the skier who really knows how to ski must possess an explicit knowledge
about a physical activity called skiing, but the cognitive activity that distinguishes
the competence of the skier is directed at the production of the skill during the
action itself.
Source: Lanzara (1993).
28
Chapter 1
..................................................................................................................................................
Individual and collective competence and
knowledge
The example of sport competence is also
useful in highlighting how competences are
more closely incorporated in actors and have
a larger tacit component with respect to
knowledge: therefore they are less easily
modied and, in order to be transferred, may
require more intense reciprocal interaction
and observation between various subjects.
However, it would be wrong to conclude that
competence (let alone knowledge) is an
exclusive or typical patrimony of the individual. On the contrary, if individual actors
were to develop their competences only on
the basis of direct experience, without taking
advantage of the experience of others, learning processes would be extremely costly, slow,
and boring. In addition to inherited knowledge and competence, many capabilities
develop because the experience of other actors believed to be comparable is observed and
these experiences are imitated or reelaborated (Bandura 1986). This process of
social cognition is fundamental in explaining the ecient development of sophisticated
individual capabilities, which would be
somewhat improbable without the support of
collective capabilities, understood as reciprocal learning networks.
Second, not all types of competences
require the same degree of interaction to be
eectively transferred. For example, skiing
capabilities can be taught fairly smoothly and
even transferred on a competence market.
This is not true for other competences that,
however tacit or explicit, are nonetheless very
personal, particular, and applicable only in a
single environment very specic to a use
or a user (Williamson 1981a; Chapter 8).
Part 1
The Actor
..................................................................................................................................................
The very fact that competences are not easily divisible from the actors possessing them
contributes to creating surpluses of competences with respect to the particular uses
for which the resource was acquired. Competences, and more precisely the possible
combinations and recombinations of competences, are a formidable base of value creation and task design (Chapter 8). Let us call
this dimension a competence generative
potential applicable to both human and
technical resources.
causeeect
The next section will examine how knowledge of these elements can be improved. The
next chapter on decision and motivation processes addresses the problem of what decision
strategy is applicable if uncertainty on some
or all the elements cannot be further reduced.
IMPROVING JUDGMENT UNDER
UNCERTAINTY
Chapter 1
..................................................................................................................................................
possible to make a sort of inventory of the
principal systematic distortions of human
judgment (obviously a limited inventory, not
an exhaustive or absolute one). The term
biases is used because it refers to undesired
eects, optical illusions, and unconscious
errors that, if only they were seen by
decision-makers,
would
be
willingly
corrected.
These corrections cannot and should not
be interpreted as the restoration of an impossible absolute or global rationality. They can
and should be seen as a guide to an improved
use of our inescapably fallible and bounded
rationality, to the capacity for discerning
between good and bad heuristics as a
function of the decision situation, to the
development of capabilities useful in making
judgments under uncertainty, and to improving the quality of decision inputs.
Heuristics
The term heuristics refers to any mental
rule or procedure capable of generating or
nding something that is being sought. In
other words, it is a method of search, which
may be more or less well grounded in experience, more or less structured, and more or less
substantive (prescribing an action) or
procedural (prescribing a method), more or
less tacit or explicit. For example, all of
the following rules indicating how to act or
how to process information are heuristics:
Take an umbrella if you go out when it is
cloudy, or Hit the tennis ball at the highest
point of the parabola after it bounces
(Russo and Schoemaker 1989); when searching, apply the principle of scanning breadth
rst and go in depth next (Newell and
Simon 1976); Look where information is
readily available (Tversky and Kahneman
1974); Lower expectations if it is dicult to
Part 1
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Box 1.4
Framing investment decisions
in information technology
In a research project about the decision processes related to the purchase and introduction of automated information systems, the decision-makers in various rms were
found to dene the problem in at least three ways, depending on the breadth of their
perspective. For some, the problem concerned investing in technologies (equipment,
software, and data elaboration techniques); for others, it included the issue of which
informational sub-systems within the rm could use computerized information
system services (order management, personnel management, general accounting, etc.)
and how they could use those services. In the broadest formulation of the problem,
issues related to information technology investments were considered to be problems
connected to the evolution of the information systems of the rm as a whole; they
therefore had an impact not only on all of the rms activities, but also on the
decisions and motivation of the people. The capacity to dene problems in a wide
rather than a narrow way was found to be related to the level of actors experience in
the decision area; this was consistent with the theoretical proposition that people learn
the consequences of the action and their own preferences (judgments of desirability)
on the basis of experimentation.
Source: Research described in C. De Vecchi and A. Grandori (1983) I processi decisionali dimprese,
Milan: Giur.
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solution, is a fundamental cognitive capability (in scientic activity as well as in decisionmaking). There is a trade-o between eort
and accuracy, and between completeness and
manageability, in the denition and structuring of problems.
Beyond the awareness of these trade-os,
problem-formulation may be improved by the
awareness of some fundamental biases that
can inuence it. Two classes of biases have
shown to be particularly important in framing problems: cognitive dissonance and prospect eects.
Consider the image drawn in Figure 1.2.
What do you see?
The lines that make up the drawing can be
interpreted in two dierent ways. For
example, a curve can be interpreted as a chin
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As among people who speak dierent languages, the diculties diminish as reciprocal
exposition and communication intensity
increase (provided there are no underlying
conicts of interest). Indeed, the investment
in communication channels or intermediaries among actors using dierent mental
schemes and styles is traditionally considered
to be a good antidote to interfunctional and
interpersonal conicts (Lewin 1948; Lawrence and Lorsch 1967) and has been recently
recommended to sustain knowledge transfers
between business units (Grant 1996) or dierent rms in alliances (Lutz 1999).
A second type of antidote is multiplying
the number of frames available to a
decision-maker (Russo and Schoemaker
1989). An open mentality can be acquired
and formed, in this perspective, by broadening individual cognitions and using groups.
Individuals can cultivate additional areas of
interest that dier from their principal elds
of action. They can reduce their degree of
specialization and focalization on particular
tasks and information. All this helps to
reduce the undesirable eects of framing
and of the dierentiation between cognitive
styles. However, it may be dicult for all
this to occur at individual level; and, if it
does, it may remove the desirable eects of
specialization and focalization. As a result,
multiple competences group problemsolving, or the use of third parties with an
intermediate orientation, is often a more
eective antidote than individual polyvalence, especially in unstructured and
important activities (Lawrence and Lorsch
1967; Chapter 11).
Local knowledge
Research is a costly and dicult process.
Therefore, actors might deliberately choose to
limit it, as will be illustrated in the next chapter. Here, instead, the unconscious and spontaneous tendency of mind to orient and
restrict attention in certain directions will be
considered.
Tversky and Kahneman (1974), in their
most inuential and seminal work on the subject, identied three basic heuristics which
tend systematically to restrict and bias the
type of information we tend to consider, by
catching us in a local knowledge trap:
availability, representativeness, and
anchoring.
Availability
Consider the experiment described in Box
1.5. This judgment can be said to be under
uncertainty because subjects do not usually
possess all the relevant information for
expressing an opinion. The usual process for
generating information is then to generate
examples and try to recall instances of the
phenomenon. As a result, the judgment on
which factor is more important turns out to
be inuenced (and biased) by the ease of
retrieval of information. What are the characteristics of easily retrievable information? Not
only the frequency with which one is exposed
to it, but also its salience: its familiarity, vividness, and cognitive and emotional intensity.
In the example in Box 1.5, the vividness of
information derived from journalistic sources
and its frequency biased in favor of impressive deaths systematically bias respondents
judgments on the relative importance of
dierent causes of death. The availability
heuristics can therefore have important consequences on economic action. Insurance
may or may not be bought depending on the
salience of risks. Investments may or may not
be made depending on how close and familiar
the cases of failure and success are; sta
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Box 1.5
An experiment on availability
Lung cancer
Emphysema
Tuberculosis
vs
vs
vs
Car accidents
Murder
Fires
For each set, please select the item that it is believed will cause the most deaths in a
years time. The average percentages of the answers by the people interviewed by
Russo and Schoemaker are shown in Appendix 1.2.
Source: Experiment described in Russo and Schoemaker (1989).
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Box 1.6
An experiment on
representativeness
This is a description of a person made by someone who knows him best: Stefano is
very shy and reserved, always available but showing little interest in people and the
world in general. He is submissive and has a need for order and structure; he is very
detail-oriented.
Question: what would you say the probability is that Stefano is:
a farmer
a salesman
a librarian
a physician
%
%
%
%
Box 1.7
An anchoring experiment
Russo and Schoemaker (1989) asked about 100 managers the following question:
What do you think the prime rate will be in 3 months? The average answer (this
happened in 1983 when prime rate was around 11 percent) was 10.9 percent.
Later, they put the following two questions, in sequence, to another group of managers: Do you think that in a 3 month period the prime rate will be more or less than 8
percent? What do you think it will be? The goal was to verify if the rst question, aimed
at anchoring the managers to 8 percent, would have lowered the estimates compared to
the ones expressed by the anchored group. The average response was 10.5 percent.
The following question was then posed to a third group: Do you think that in a 3
month period the prime rate will be more or less than 14 percent, and what will it be?
The average estimate was 11.2 percent.
Source: Experiment described in Russo and Schoemaker (1989).
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Antidotes
Many aspects of organizational systems and
structures provide a response to these fundamental biases in judgments, and oer tools
for improving the validity and reliability of
the knowledge used in organizational
decision-making. For example:
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variable should fall, and express the probability that the estimates made will fall
within the interval
alternatively, set a level of condence to
reach, say 80 percent, and then estimate
how large a value interval should be in
order that, in eight out of ten cases, the
estimate will be correct.
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Both statistics can be constructed either by
the same person on many estimates, or by
several persons on even a single estimate.
In order to control how well calibrated
the probability estimates are, one can compare the subjective probabilities of being
right, or the subjects degree of condence,
with the observed frequency of correct
responses. The usual outcome of these
experiments is that the average subjective
condence in ones own judgment is far
greater than the frequency of correct answers
(Lichtenstein et al. 1982). For example, in an
experiment that we conducted with MBA
students, they were asked to put in order three
management schools, in terms of the overall
number of course participants on an annual
basis. The average subjective probability of
having given the right order was about 60 percent, whereas the correct ordering was actually produced by only four students out of
120. The reason for such a wide discrepency
can be traced to a combination of distortions,
arising from qualitative information about
schools being more available than quantitative, considering image and fame as
representative of size, regardless of structural factors, such as market structure (for
example, the number of comparable schools
in the national market) and the school strategy (for example, the breadth of the course
portfolio).
Undercondence and self-ecacy
Condence judgments are inescapably
involved in the application of an actors
knowledge and competence in order to reach
certain performances. Possessing competence
does not necessarily mean using it. An
intermediate variable of great importance for
explaining performance dierences, which
plays a role even before expected benets are
Antidotes
The management of self-ecacy and the
antidotes to uncalibrated condence are a
problem of sustaining and correcting learning
processes. Dierent types of learning processes can contribute, depending on the
possibility of direct experience and on the
complexity of the task.
Direct experimentation
Enactive attainments i.e. the direct
experience of ones own success constitute
the most inuential source of information on
eectiveness because they are based on
authentic mastery experiences (Bandura
1986: 399). In fact, it has been empirically
shown that regular access to feedback on
ones own performance is the most systematic
factor in the calibration of probability and
condence judgments (Lichtenstein et al.
1982). Direct feedback is not, however, always
so clear and objective as in the example of the
long jump. In economic activity, the availability of feedback frequently depends on the
potential and capacity of others teachers,
bosses, clients to give it.
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