11/27/2016

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InJapan,world'sgloomiestmillennialsseeafutureofstruggle|TheJapanTimes
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Young Japanese today prefer security and show little of the 'animal spirit' needed to help realize Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe's vision of a 'great entrepreneurial nation,' experts say. | ISTOCK
NATIONAL / SOCIAL ISSUES

InJapan,worldsgloomiestmillennialsseeafutureofstruggle
BY KEIKO UJIKANE
BLOOMBERG

ARTICLE HISTORY NOV 24, 2016

YouthfuloptimismcanbehardtofindinJapan,wheremillennialsrankasthegloomiestofthosein
theworldsbiggesteconomies.

Whileamajorityofyoungadultsinitstradingpartnersseebrightfuturesandsuccessfulcareers
ahead,fewerthan40percentofJapanesedo,makingthemthemostpessimisticin18countries
surveyedbyManpowerGroup.TheyreevenmoredownbeatthanyoungGreeks,whohavesuffered
GreatDepression-likeconditionsandpoliticalupheavalinrecentyears.
SomuchforeffortstoeradicateJapansdeflationarymindset.AsPrimeMinisterShinzoAbetries
toengineeraneconomicrevival,youngJapanesearefarfrombullish.Itsweighingontheeconomy
alreadyandposeschallengesforthefuture.

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InJapan,world'sgloomiestmillennialsseeafutureofstruggle|TheJapanTimes

Japanesemillennialsfaceafutureofpayingtocareforoneoftheworldsmostrapidlygrowing
elderlypopulations,withmorethanathirdofthemlikelyheadedforaseriesoflower-payingdeadendjobsonthelessdesirablesideofthenationsduallabormarket.Thentheresapublicdebt
burdenthatranksamongtheworldsbiggest.
Skepticalthatthenationspensionsystemwillbearoundtotakecareofthem,20-somethingsare
alreadyconcernedaboutlifeafterretirementandscrimpingtosaveforthefuture.Lowand
stagnantpayisforcingmanytodelayorevenforegomarriage,home-buyingandchild-rearing.
About37percentexpecttoworkuntiltheydie,theManpowerGroupsurveyfound.
KoheiIto,24,saidhehasnofaiththatthegovernmentwillfixproblemssuchasthepensionsystem,
whichheworriesisunsustainable.Acollegegraduate,Itoworksinafitnesscenter,andisthinking
aboutmovingoverseastoteachsportstochildrenindevelopingcountries.
IdontthinkJapanesepoliticsisgoingtogetbetter,andIdontthinktheeconomywillgetbetter
either,hesaid.
Preferringsecurity,youngJapaneseshowlittleoftheanimalspiritsneededtohelprealizeAbes
visionofagreatentrepreneurialnation.Youngerworkersaretheleastinclinedtostrikeouton
theirowninmorethanadecade,accordingtoasurveyofrecentlyemployedpeoplebytheJapan
ProductivityCenter.
Millennials,iftheycan,theywanttojoinamajorcompany,saidDaisukeOya,23,whoworksina
cardboardfactoryasamachineoperator.Ifyoucanjoinabigcompanywhenyoureyoung,its
morestable.
Thatkindofthinkingisaverybigconcern,saidRandallJones,headoftheJapan-Koreadeskat
theOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment.HesaidyoungJapanesehavea
fixationonworkingforlargecompaniesorthegovernment.
ChangingsuchattitudesisakeychallengeforJapan,whichrankslowinentrepreneurshipglobally,
anddoingsoisnecessarytodrivetheinnovationandproductivitygrowthneededtosustainrising
livingstandardsasthepopulationshrinks,theOECDsays.Thecountryhasabundantpatentsand
pilesofidlecorporatecash,butitlacksenoughentrepreneurstomakefulluseofthem,Jonessaid.
ManyyoungJapanesehavecastoffthevaluesthatdrovetheirparentsandgrandparentstotoil
awaymuchoftheirlivesinfactoriesandofficesduringthenationspost-warboomyears.Theysay
theyprizeexperiencesoverpossessions,andatworkseekself-fulfillmentandachievementover
careeradvancement.Manysurveysfindthemdescribingthemselvesashappyatleastfornow.

YetformanypeoplelikeOya,thedreamremainsbasicallythesame:astablejobthatpaysenough
moneytogetmarriedandhavechildren.Aftergraduatingfromavocationalhighschool,Oya
landedapositionatametal-workingplant,butthehoursandpayfluctuated,soheleftrecentlyto
workatthecardboardfactory.
Mygirlfriendtoldme,ifthisisallImake,wecantgetmarried,wecanthavechildren,hesaid.
Honestly,itwasprettyshockingtothinkabout.
Manyotheryoungcoupleshavehadthatconversation.Thepercentageofmenandwomenintheir
20swhowanttogetmarriedhasfallensharplyoverthepastthreeyears,to39percentofmenand
59percentofwomen,withmanycitinglowpayasthereason,accordingtoasurveythisyearbythe
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InJapan,world'sgloomiestmillennialsseeafutureofstruggle|TheJapanTimes

MeijiYasudaInstituteofLifeandWellness.
ThesourceofmuchoftheirstrugglesisJapansduallabormarket,whichkeepswagesdownwhile
raisingjobinsecurity.Italsolimitsopportunitiesforemployeestodevelopskills,whichinthelong
termwillhurttheeconomy,accordingtoHiroakiMiyamoto,aUniversityofTokyoassociate
professor.
ButpublicdebtmayprovethebiggesteconomicburdenforJapansmillennials.
TheshareofthedebtforeachJapanesechildunder15stoodat$794,000eachasof2011more
than2timesthatofchildreninItalyandGreece,thetwonext-worstcases,accordingto
BertelsmannStiftung,aGermannonprofitfoundation.Becauseofthat,andadisproportionately
largeshareofsocialspendinggoingtotheelderly,Japanranksastheworldssecond-most
intergenerationallyunjustcountry,itsaid.
YoungJapanesearealreadyrespondinginwaysthataredraggingontheeconomy.Atatimewhen
domesticconsumptionhasstalled,theirsavingsrateisontherise,withthose25-34yearsold
savingalargershareoftheirearningsthananyotheragegroupin2015,UBSsaidinarecentreport,
citinggovernmentdata.
Infact,mostofwhatlittlegrowthinconsumptionJapanhasseenoverthepastdecadehasbeen
drivenbyseniors,offsettingadeclineamongyoungerpeople,UBSsaid.
TheOECDsJonesnotesthatjusttostabilizethedebtatcurrentlevelswouldrequiredifficult
choices,likelyincludingraisingthesalestaxfromthecurrent8percent,whichsitswellbelowthe
OECDaverageofabout20percent,hesaid.Thebulkofthatwillfallontheyoungerpeoplewhowill
bearoundlonger.
Soifyoureaworking-ageperson,youcanseethatthereareheavyburdenscoming,hesaid.
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InJapan,world'sgloomiestmillennialsseeafutureofstruggle|TheJapanTimes

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