12/19/2016

CompetitiveShiaSunniGasPipelinesPolitics?IndianDefenceReview

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CompetitiveShiaSunniGasPipelinesPolitics?
ByBrigAmarCheema
Issue:NetEdition|Date:19Jun,2014
Whencombatsoldiersarefacedwithachemicalattack,themilitarypracticetoexhalepollutedairbefore
donningaprotectivemaskisbyshoutinggasgasgas.ByrepeatingtheGwordmanytimesover,it
appearsthatUSAandherallieshavetakenthefirststep:furtheraction(s)againstAssadsSyriajustifiedor
otherwise,areexpected.
TheSyriaIranIraqGasPipeline,dubbedastheIslamicPipeline,isa$10Billionprojectwhichwasagreed
uponbythethreecountriesinJuly2011.
WhilethewesternnarrativeforinitiatingactionsagainstSyriaisbeingjustifiedasretributionforchemical
attacksperpetuatedbyadiabolicPresidentAssad,thereismorehappeninginandaroundSyriathanwhat
meetstheeye:controlofnaturalgasreserves,itstrade,distributionandthestrategicadvantagesitbestows
arealternativeandcogentreasonsmeritingwesternmilitaryintervention?Historyhasprovedthatthelureof
energyresourcesispowerfulandoilandgasbequeathedtotheIslamicworldhasturnedoutmoreasacurse,
ratherthanaboonforitspeopleIraq,LibyaandthedivisionofSudanarerecentexamplesoftheplunderof
MiddleEasternnationhood.Thisenergyrichregionhasbeenrepeatedlycrushedandmutilatedwithutter
disregardforsocioethnicconcernsforgainingcontrolovertheoilwellsofpower.Theanticipatedattack
onSyriabyanincensedcoalitionofthewillingportendstobethelatestinthisgameofhardballplayedfor
gaininggeopoliticalstrategicadvantage(s).
Sinceitisintendedtoprovideanalternativenarrativeforthefastdevelopingwarlikesituation,abrief
backgroundisrequiredtobeprovided.GeographicallylocatedatthejunctionofthefuelstarvedEuropean
UnionandenergyrichIraqandIran,Syria,byvirtueofherlocationalonehasthepotentialtoplayapivotal
roleinconduitinggassuppliestoEurope.Inaddition,Syrianowhasrecentlystruckgasoffhercoast,the
closesttoEuropefromwhereshecouldnowsupplygasdirectly.Collectively,theseadvantagesmakeSyrias
rolepivotalanddominantinthefuture.Atthesametime,thespectreofdirectsupplysupplementedbythe
gaspipelinefromIranthroughSyriawouldtripthedreamofQatartosupplygastoEuropedirectly.USA,a
strategicpartnerofQatarandSaudiArabiaandbeingthelargestbeneficiaryoftheiroilrevenues,seems
willingtobackherpartnerstoknockoutSyriaandIranfromtheenergyequation.Bydoingso,shewould
concurrentlystymieRussianandChineseattemptstoalterthestatusquofavouringtheUSA,westernpowers
andthenationsoftheSunniMuslimworldasalsofavourherselfandTurkeybyensuringalternativeQatari
gasfortheirjointgaspipelineproject.
EssentiallyanArabnationwith74percentofitspopulationbeingSunniMuslims,theterritoryofSyria,
whichincludedwhatistodaysLebanon,wasmandatedtoFranceasspoilsaftertheFirstWorldWarunder
theTreatyofSevresinturnthiswastheoutcomeofasecretagreement(SykesPicot)brokeredbetween
BritainandFrance.ThisnotonlydampenedArabdemocraticaspirations,despitetheelectionsofMay1919,
thisalsoflewinthefaceoftheAmericanledCraneCommissionwhichwasrequiredtorecommendthe
politicalfutureinaccordancewiththeaspirationsoftheArabpeople:bothwerethrownoutofthewindow
byBritainandFrance.CuttingthestoryoftheSyrianstruggletothebarest,FrancewentontooccupySyria
inJuly1920,thoughittookthemanotherthreeyearstoestablishfullcontroloverSyria.Later,Lebanonwas
carvedoutofSyriatoprovideasafehaventoChristianstheonlystateinthemiddleeastwheretheyarein
majorityovertheMuslims.
AstheworldwaitswithbatedbreathforAmericanTomahawkstoflyacrosstheSyrianbows,itwouldbe
prudenttosurmisethatthesearenotmerelybeingfiredtopunishtheuseofchemicalweapons,butmore
importantlytoserveawarningtoAssadtoscuttlehisambitiousplanstosupplypipedgastoEuropedirectly.
ThestoryofindependentSyriasince1946remainedturbulentasitsoonenteredtheArabwaragainstthe
newlycreatedstateofIsraelin1948,losingapartofthestrategicGolanHeightsinthebargain.Internal
rumblingsresultedinacoupdetatwhichusheredinmilitaryrule,whichwasreplacedbyanotherandthe
thirdin1951.Evenareturnofanational(civil)governmentin1956couldnotbringstabilitytoillustrate,till
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CompetitiveShiaSunniGasPipelinesPolitics?IndianDefenceReview

1956,Syriaalreadyhadtwentynewcabinetsandfourseparateconstitutions.Inordertoovercomeher
securityconcernsaftertheSuezCanalcrisisof1967,SyriasignedapactwiththeSovietUnion,allowingthe
chilloftheColdwartopermeatetheregion.ThisnaturallyalarmedtheTurks(TurkeyhastheSyriancityof
Iskendronunderitsoccupation),andinturn,pushedtheSyriansfurtherintheembraceoftheSovietUnion.
Theimportantpointbeingmadeinthisstoryofunstablenationhoodisthatexternalfactorshavebeenmany
andtheyhaverepeatedlyalteredthecourseofSyrianhistory.
Abriefinterlude(19581961)ofmergerwithEgyptfollowedtakingtheformoftheshortlivedUnitedArab
Republic.TheexperimentfailedafterpowerwasretakenbythemilitaryinDamascus,thistimeunderthe
cloakoftheBaathParty:thepartythathadalsotakenoverinneighbouringIraq.Atthatstagetherewere
talksofaunificationofSyria,EgyptandIraqasasolitaryArabnation,whicheventuallyflounderedafterthe
partylostcontroloverBaghdadin1963.Withinthreeyearstherewasyetanothercoupusheringinthe
SecondBaathgovernment.The1967SixDayWarwithIsraelthatfollowedresultedinweakeningofthe
Syriangovernment,thoughthisdidnotdeterthemtosendinforcesforamisadventureagainstJordanin
supportofthePalestineguerrillasafterthedramaticeventsoftheBlackSeptember.Afterreceivinganother
bloodynose,itwastheturnoftheMinisterofDefence,HafezalAssad,thefatherofthecurrentpresident
belongingtothedominantAlawites(AlawisareaprominentreligiousgroupofShiaMuslims,forming
twelvepercentofthepopulationofSyriawholiveintheLevantwhichislocatedatthecrossroadsof
WesternAsia,EasternMediterraneanandNorthEastAfrica)totakeoverandconsolidatethenationunder
theNationalProgressiveFront,whichundertookaCorrectionistMovementoverthenextthirtyyears.It
wasthelingeringeffectofhisreformistmovementthattransferofpowertothesonfollowinghisdeathin
June2000wassmoothastheSyrianParliamentrelaxedtheminimumlegalagefrom40to34tofacilitate
takingoverbyPresidentBasharalAssad.ThereignofAssad,anarmyphysicianbytraining,hasbeen
relativelylessturbulent,despitetheUSledinvasionofIraqandtheongoingcivilwar.Hehascultivated
amicablerelationswithIrananddespitethecollapseoftheSovietUnion,hasmaintainedcloselinkswith
Moscow.
ComingtowhathasledtowarcloudsrumblingoverSyriaonceagainitsallaboutgasandmore
importantly,theeconomicsconnectedtoit.Environmentfriendlyandlowcostnaturalgashasemergedas
theenergyofchoiceofthefutureandissettoreplacecoalandnuclearpowergeneration,withtheEuropean
Unionbeingthelargestmarket.ThisshifthascoincidedwithmajorgasfindsinQatar,Iran,SyriaandIsrael,
anditisthishappenstanceinenergygeopoliticsthatasablogputitasformingthestringthatbindsIsrael,
TurkeyandQatarintheformofanunholyallianceononeside,andAssadsSyria,Iran,RussiaandChinaon
theother.
instrategicterms,theQatarTurkeypipelineisexceedinglyimportantforEuropeandUSAasEuropecan
befreedfromtheRussiangasstranglehold,agrimrealityoftoday.
AstheworldwaitswithbatedbreathforAmericanTomahawkstoflyacrosstheSyrianbows,itwouldbe
prudenttosurmisethatthesearenotmerelybeingfiredtopunishtheuseofchemicalweapons(rumouredto
beafalseflagoperation),butmoreimportantlytoserveawarningtoAssadtoscuttlehisambitiousplansto
supplypipedgastoEuropedirectly.ItneedstobehighlightedthatthewartodestabilisePresidentAssadhas
beengoingforovertwoyearsandhastakentheformofaSunniUSsponsoredcivilwar.Itisthelackof
successonthisfrontthatUSAisbeingforcedtogoinforthekill.Legitimacyforundertakingtheoperation
isbeingbrokeredtoundertakepunitiveaction(s)underanUNmandateforpurportedcrimescommitted
againsthumanityandthechemicalattackisbeingplayedup.Itwouldberecalledthathysteriaforwaron
Syriahadalsobeenbuiltupin2012thisgotscuttledduetotheactionstakenbyRussiaandChinaworking
intandemthisalsoledtotheresignationofthethenUNSecretaryGeneral,KofiAnnan.
TheSyriaIranIraqGasPipeline,dubbedastheIslamicPipeline,isa$10Billionprojectwhichwasagreed
uponbythethreecountriesinJuly2011.ThisproposestopipegasfromtheParsfieldlocatedinthePersian
Gulf(singlelargestintheworld)toLebanonscoastfromwhereitwouldbesuppliedtotheEuropean
marketsbytheyear2018.SincetheIranianParsgasfieldextendsbeyondthePersianGulf,Qatar,thesecond
claimantoftheworldssecondlargestfieldalsoplanstosupplygasdirectlytoEuropebutthroughan
alternatepipelinethroughTurkeytraversingIraq,butbypassingbothIranandSyria.InTurkeythiswouldbe
linkedwiththeUSbackedNabuccopipeline,carryinggassuppliesfromtheCentralAsianRepublics,adding
tothevalue,sinceitwouldhaveadiversifiedsource.Bothproposalsarethusindirectcompetitionwitheach
otherwhoseleveragemakesthemstrategicsincetheirimpactwouldbefarreachingandwouldincreasewith
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CompetitiveShiaSunniGasPipelinesPolitics?IndianDefenceReview

time.Itisimportanttohighlightthatinstrategicterms,theQatarTurkeypipelineisexceedinglyimportant
forEuropeandUSAasEuropecanbefreedfromtheRussiangasstranglehold,agrimrealityoftoday.On
theotherhand,thepipelinefromIranandSyriawouldremainsomewhatunderRussianinfluenceaswould
bethesupplyofgasthroughtheNabuccolinefromtheCentralAsianRepublics.
USAwhichisnotonlyastrategicpartnerofQatar,hascompulsionssinceherstrategicallyimportantbases
ofCENTCOMarelocatedinQatar
AddingtothecomplexityareissuesrelatedtothesupplyofgasfromEgyptandJordan.PresidentAssadhas
preferredhistieupwithIranoverthatwithEgyptandJordanwhoplannedtosupplygasdirectlytoHomsin
SyriaforEuropeandTurkeythroughtheArabGasPipelinerunningdirectlyfromAqabaviaAmmanin
Jordan.ThislinealreadysuppliesgastoLebanonandIsraelthroughoutletsinSidonandHaifa,thoughthe
linktoHomsinSyriaisstilltobedeveloped.ByprofferinghispreferenceoverEgyptandJordan,both
SunniMuslimstates,PresidentAssadhasplacedhishopeswithShiaIranandthereforethiscompetitionis
projectedasaSunniShiaMusliminternecineconflictandthisisthecolourofthecivilwarraginginSyriato
displacePresidentAssadwithacandidateofchoicefromtheMuslimBrotherhood,preferredbytheSunni
world.Itispertinenttohighlightthatamongstothers,thefightagainstAssad(regimechangebeingthe
unstatedaim)isbeingwagedbyAlQaidajihadisalongwithnumerousfighterssponsoredbySaudiArabia,
Qatarandthewesternworld,includingIsrael.Principles,ifthereareanywhicharefollowedinthereal
worldofenergygeopoliticsandgeostrategyalreadystandcompromised.
Atthisstagethereistherequirementtoinjecttheroleoftheotheraffectedpartywhoisindirectcompetition
withSyriaIsrael.InadditiontothegasthatSyriaistoreceivefromIranforsupplytoEurope,herown
(recentlydiscovered,butunderplayed)QaragasfieldclosetoherborderwithLebanonandneartheRussian
navalportofTartusontheMediterraneancoastisbelievedtobeequalifnotgreaterthanthegasreservesof
QatarbestowingagreatadvantagetoSyria.Aroundthesametime,Israelwhichwastillrecentlyanenergy
deficientnationhitpaydirtbythediscoveryofagiantgasfieldintheoffshoreLevantbasin.BothSyria
andIsraelarethereforenowindirectcompetitionwitheachotherforsupplyofgastoEurope,whichin
practicaltermswouldbecheaperthanthegassourcedfromeitherIranorQatarduetothelowtransportation
costs.Amapishighlightingtheselinksandissues.
Whenviewedinperspective,IsraelandSyriawillbothhavetheeconomicedgeoverIranandQatardueto
reduceddistances,whereasinstrategicterms,theenhancedrolethatSyriacouldplaydirectly,combinedwith
theleverageofIranandRussiaattheexpenseofQatar,TurkeyandIsraelbecomesthecompellingandtime
criticalreasonforthewestandtheSunniworldtonipthethreatbeforeitcandevelop.USAwhichisnot
onlyastrategicpartnerofQatar,hascompulsionssinceherstrategicallyimportantbasesofCENTCOMare
locatedinQatartheseincludetheAirExpeditionaryWingsoftheUSAirForceaswellthatoftheRoyal
AirForce.Naturally,shewouldwishthattheIranSyriainitiativeiseliminatedfromtheequation.Sincethe
thrustofthewesterninitiativeisalsodirectedagainstIran,thisalsoreinforcesSunnidominationoverthe
IslamicworldbytheHouseofSaudovertheShiitesofIran.WhilethebenefitsforIsraelandTurkeyare
obvious,thisalsodilutesRussianinfluenceoverSyria,whileitprovidesanalternativesourceofgasforthe
USNabuccopipeline.AtthesametimethisrestrictsChinesepenetrationinIransenergyinfrastructure.
ThuswhiletheimmediatecasetoactagainstSyriaisloudlymadeoutasretributionforAssadspurported
useofchemicalweaponsagainstthefreedomlovingpeopleofthesponsoredFreeSyrianArmy,thegame
planislargerwithmajorstrategicramificationsbehindtheplannedattacks,itsallaboutgas.
Copyright2016IndianDefenceReview

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