Proceedings of PACAM XII

12th Pan-American Congress of Applied Mechanics

January 02-06, 2012, Port of Spain, Trinidad

PROBABILISTIC MECHANICS OF EXPLOSIVE FRAGMENTATION

Paul Jenkins
Girum Urgessa, gurgessa@gmu.edu, corresponding author
Wondwosen Ali
George Mason University, 4400 University Drive MS 6C1, Fairfax, VA 22030

Abstract. When explosive munitions (such as artillery shells and bombs) detonate, the casing fragments into larger
number of pieces. The fragments produced may have the momentum to perforate and damage structures. The
mechanics of the complex loads produced by these fragmentations requires a description of the fragment size, shape,
and velocity distributions. The ability to forecast the pattern and size of these fragmentations is a very important aspect
of designing structures for penetration effects. This paper presents probabilistic estimation of the properties of highvelocity fragment produced from the metal case of explosively loaded munitions using a computational numerical
model in MATLAB. Since protective structures must be designed to withstand the effect of predicted fragments, the fastrunning numerical model presented in the paper can be utilized in preliminary design in lieu of advanced analysis such
as FEA. The paper includes an example problem where fragment mass distribution and fragment velocity distribution
are determined for a given building subjected to explosively fragmenting munitions.
Keywords: Fragmentation, Explosives, Numerical models
1. INTRODUCTION
Explosively fragmenting munitions produce complex loads on structures. The characterization of these loads
requires a description of the fragment size, shape, and velocity distributions. This paper presents probabilistic
estimation of impact loads by relatively high-velocity fragments produced from the metal case of an explosively loaded
munitions using MATLAB.
Curran (1997) reviews predictive theories and models for explosively fragmenting munitions that produces complex
loads on nearby targets. He also presented correlations of simpler formulae with fragment aspect ratio data obtained
from a scaled explosive experiment. Although the derivation of the formulae was found to be useful, the author
highlights the need to validate the fragmentation equations against additional arena test data for wide range of scales
and material properties.
A technique for predicting performance of explosive fragmentation munitions presented in this work is based on
integrating three-dimensional axisymmetric hydrocode analyses with analyses from a newly developed fragmentation
computer code MOTT. The validation of the MOTT code fragmentation model was accomplished using the existing
munitions arena test data. After having established the crucial parameters of the model, a new explosive fragmentation
munitions was designed and optimized. Upon fabrication of the developed munitions, the performance of the new
charge was tested in a series of small-scale experiments including the flash radiography, the high-speed photography,
and the sawdust fragment recovery. Considering relative simplicity of the model, the accuracy of the MOTT code
predictions is rather remarkable.
Gold et al. (2006) presented a technique for predicting performance of explosive fragmentation munitions based on
integrating three-dimensional hydrocode analyses with a newly developed program called PAFRAG. They validated
their program with test data obtained from small-scale experiments including flash radiography, high-speed
photography and sawdust fragment recovery. The code implements Motts fragment distribution for random variations
in fragment sizes and it did provide reasonable results when compared to test data.
Arnold and Rottenkolber (2008) presented a method for fast data collection of fragmenting shells. They studied
fragmentation behavior of metal casings ranging from thin aluminum alloys to mild steel. Their work sketched a
method for fast data collection of fragmenting shells and was applied to generic casings of warheads. They have
developed an iterative procedure to calculate fragment mass. However, the paper did not provide a development of
fragmentation model suitable for axial fracture.
Wang et al. (2009) formulated a theoretical method for predicting fragment size caused by blast loads based on
fracture mechanics of brittle materials. They developed a finite element model to estimate the material damage,
fragment distribution and ejection velocity. A simplified algorithm is presented in their paper in order to predict
fragment trajectory and launch distance. They have demonstrated how crack growth velocity is related to strain rate;
when the load is applied more rapidly with higher amplitude, a higher level of stress is achieved before flaw

Proceedings of PACAM XII

12th Pan-American Congress of Applied Mechanics

January 02-06, 2012, Port of Spain, Trinidad

coalescence occurs causing fragment dimensions smaller. The study concludes that cumulative fragment sizes generally
follow Weibull probability distribution.
Hutchinson (2009) presented new derivations for solutions of fragmenting casings. The paper highlighted the
tendency of explosive casings to fragment while the pressure of the explosive products within the casing is still high.
The explosive products can then escape through the fragmented casing, taking with them momentum they would
otherwise have had to impart to the casing material. The new sets of equation developed were compared with
experimental data and they show a good fit. The paper did not take into account the partition of energy in the system at
the point of casing failure. The paper also argued that postulating an additional dependency of blast impulse on the ratio
of casing yield stress and explosive gas pressure, the effect of early casing failure can be included in a further new and
more general set of formulae for both cylindrical and spherical charges with fragmenting casings.
2. METHODS
2.1. Fragmentation Analysis
There are several factors to consider when analyzing the effects of a general purpose bomb explosion on given
structure. The explosions ability to penetrate a building, the blast force, and the ground shock are some of the effects
essential in designing hardened structures. The focus of this paper is on explosively fragmenting munitions. When
explosive munitions (such as artillery shells and bombs) detonate, the casing fragments into larger number of pieces.
The fragments produced may have the momentum to perforate and damage structures.
The weight distribution of fragments resulting from a detonation of any evenly distributed explosive in a cylindrical
metal case of uniform thickness is given by

Nm

Wc
e
2M

m
M

(1)

where Wc is the total casing weight, m is the fragment weight and N m is the number of fragments with weight greater
than m, and M is the Motts probability distribution. The Motts distribution, developed by Neville F. Mott during the
height of World War II (Mott, 1947), is dependent on the explosive constant (B x), casing thickness (tc) and casing
diameter (di)

Bx tc

5/3

di

2/3

t
1 c
di

(2)

The initial fragment velocity is determined from the Gurney equation (Hutchinson 2009). For a cylindrical charge
with a uniform casing wall thickness,

VOi

W
WC

(3)

W
1 0.5
WC

where Voi is the initial fragment velocity, and G is the Gurney explosive energy constant, W is the weight of the
explosive and Wc is as defined in eqn. 1.
The explosive constant (Bx) is based on data from tests of each of the known explosive materials, and is used to
calculate the theoretical fragment mass. The Gurney constant is also formulated based on test data, and is used to
calculate the theoretical velocities of each case fragment. Both B x and G are known for most explosive materials.
2.2. Numerical Modeling
A numerical model in MATLAB is developed to predict fragment characteristics of a general purpose bomb
explosion and its potential impact on a given building wall, roof or floor. The forecast include the number of fragments

Proceedings of PACAM XII

12th Pan-American Congress of Applied Mechanics

January 02-06, 2012, Port of Spain, Trinidad

generated, the average mass of each individual fragment and their final velocities as they hit the targeted surface. The
model provides the user the ability to input various characteristics of the bomb and surface target as well as offering
default parameters. The program then calculates the fragment mass characteristics using beta distributions and plots the
forecasts of fragment pattern and velocity distribution.
The program begins by prompting the user to choose the explosive type, bomb type (dimensions), and the bombs
characteristics. An alpha-string identifying the explosive type is used internally in the program to proceed with forward
computation. An error message will appear if the selected explosive type is not in the database. The mass distribution
parameter, which is used to generate random fragment weights, is determined based on the alpha-string identifying the
explosive type, the explosive constant, the average casing thickness and the diameter. Based on the weight distribution
of fragments, Nm , a mathematical upper limit on the total number of fragments, N T, is determined when m = 0.

NT

Wc
2M

(4)

A beta distribution generates a sample of fragment initial velocities. For a selected munitions type there are five
input parameters: length of the casing, average inside diameter of the casing, average casing thickness, casing mass and
the center of gravity of the bomb. Currently, the model can only run one munitions type but it can easily be expanded to
include other munitions in a database format. The model also prompts the user for an explosive weight (We), then
proceeds to calculate the mass distribution parameter (M 0), total number of fragments (NT), ratio of explosive weight to
casing weight (We/Wc), and initial fragment velocity (V0). The user has the option of inputting the location of the
explosive in a simulated room with a default location built internally.
Three dimensional Euclidean space transformation is used to define the range of the beam spray created by the
bomb explosion. This allows a conical range in which random unit vectors are created in order for the model to create
locations of fragments that hit target surfaces, which will in turn be plotted. A beta distribution function is used in the
model to set up the random generation of fragment velocities in accordance with the type of bomb characteristics being
used in the model. This is an important aspect of the model as the random velocities produced will determine the
number of fragments that hit the surface area and in what pattern. Using distribution parameters that best fits the type of
bomb and explosive will ensure a better estimate of the fragment velocities. The number of fragments produced and the
number of target hits are also calculated using a beta distribution and the MATLAB random number generator. The user
can input various aspects of the model such as the room size, and the bomb coordinates within in the room.
In addition to the plots mentioned above, the model produces numerical results of the mass distribution parameter,
initial fragment velocity, number of fragments generated, number of fragments that hit the target, the mean fragment
weight, and the average fragment speed. The model also plots the x and y coordinates of the fragments that hit the
target. In addition, the distribution of fragment velocity versus probability density is provided.
3. RESULTS
A fragmentation analysis is conducted on a 6m x 9m x 4m building subjected to explosive munitions with properties
shown in Tab.1.
Table 1. Input parameters.
Casing length
Casing diameter
Casing thickness
Casing mass
Detonation
Explosive mass

1.54 m
274 mm
10.2 mm
136.5 kg
center of building
87.1 kg

The mass distribution parameter for this example is 0.003 kg with a nominal initial fragment velocity of 1600 m/sec.
Figure 1 shows the predicted fragmentation pattern in the floor of the building. As expected, the fragmentation is
concentrated near the center of the floor. The total number of fragments generated is estimated to be 9200. Figure 2
shows the fragment velocity distribution with the average of the fragment velocities hitting the floor estimated at 852
m/sec.

Proceedings of PACAM XII

12th Pan-American Congress of Applied Mechanics

January 02-06, 2012, Port of Spain, Trinidad

Figure 1. Predicted fragmentation Pattern

Figure 2. Fragment velocity distribution

Proceedings of PACAM XII

12th Pan-American Congress of Applied Mechanics

January 02-06, 2012, Port of Spain, Trinidad

Figure 3 shows the distribution of the fragment sizes. The average fragment weight that hit the floor is 0.0154 kg.
Figure 4 shows fragment loading on the surface in terms of impulse. The total impulse is estimated to be 5 x 104
kg.m/sec.

Figure 3. Fragment size distribution

Figure 4. Fragmentation Impulse

Proceedings of PACAM XII

12th Pan-American Congress of Applied Mechanics

January 02-06, 2012, Port of Spain, Trinidad

5. CONCLUSION
When explosive munitions (such as artillery shells and bombs) detonate, the casing fragments into larger number of
pieces. The fragments produced may have the momentum to perforate and damage structures. The mechanics of the
complex loads produced by these fragmentations requires a description of the fragment size, shape, and velocity
distributions. The ability to forecast the pattern and size of these fragmentations is a very important aspect of designing
structures for penetration effects.
This paper presents probabilistic estimation of the properties of high-velocity fragment produced from the metal
case of explosively loaded munitions using a computational numerical model in MATLAB. Since protective structures
must be designed to withstand the effect of predicted fragments, the fast-running numerical model presented in the
paper can be utilized in preliminary design in lieu of advanced analysis such as FEA. The paper includes an example
problem where fragment mass distribution, fragment velocity distribution, fragment size distribution and total impulse
generated by fragments are determined for a given building subjected to explosively fragmenting munitions.
6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors acknowledge the support provided by Volgenau School of Engineering.
7. REFERENCES
Arnold, W. and Rottenkolber, E., 2008. Fragment Mass Distribution of Metal Cased Explosive Charges, International
Journal of Impact Engineering, Vol. 35, pp. 1393-1398.
Curran, D.R., 1997. Simple Fragment Size and Shape Distribution Formulae for Explosively Fragmenting Munitions,
International Journal of Impact Engineering, Vol. 20, pp. 197-208.
Gold, V.M., Baker, E.L. and Fuchs, B.E., 2006. PAFRAG Modeling of Explosive Fragmentation Munitions
Performance, International Journal of Impact Engineering, Vol. 33, pp. 294-304.
Hutchinson, M.D., 2009. The Escape of Blast from Fragmenting Munitions Casings, International Journal of Impact
Engineering, Vol. 36, pp. 185-192.
MathWorks, 2008. MATLAB The Languauge of Technical Computing, Version 14, MathWorks Inc., Natick, MA.
Mott, N.F., 1947. Fragmentation of Shell Cases, Proceedings of the Royal Society London A, Vol. 189, pp. 300-308.
Wang, M., Hao, H., Ding, Y. and Li, Z. 2009. Prediction of Fragment Size and Ejection Distance of Masonry Wall
under Blast Load using Homogenized Masonry Material Properties, International Journal of Impact Engineering,
Vol. 36, pp. 808-820.