Year

Sales
Fixed Cost
Variable cost
Revenues
Net Cash Flow

1
2
3
270000 249294.0936 262675.8807

8000000000
1458000000 1346188105 1418449756
2700000000 2492940936 2626758807
-8000000000 1242000000 1146752830 1208309051

Year 1 Sales
Fixed Cost
Unit Variable Cost
Car Price
Interest Rate
Std Dev. Of Annual Sales

270000
8000000000
5400
10000
10%
20000

230000
250000
270000

0.25
0.5
0.25

4600
5400

0.5
0.5

6000000000
8000000000

0.5
0.5

4
5
6
7
8
9
293248.3737 284087.0441 295562.5415 280161.9362 301132.1115 299052.7261
1583541218 1534070038 1596037724 1512874455 1626113402 1614884721
2932483737 2840870441 2955625415 2801619362 3011321115 2990527261
1348942519 1306800403 1359587691 1288744906 1385207713 1375642540

10
281891.6439
1522214877
2818916439
1296701562

Total NPV
-124260228.46

Duration
2
0.5

4
0.25

6
0.125

8
0.125

Potential mkt
2 lakhs
Average growth rate
6%

Std Dev

MTR Share Year 1 (triangular dist.)

Min
20%
Mode
40%
Max
50%

No. of buys (normal)

Avg
Std Dev
Truncate (0,50)

Competitors

Interest rate
0
0.8

1%

1
0.2

Life

Year
Potential Mkt
MTR share
Rest
Avg. buys
Var cost
Sales Price
Competitors
Revenue
Total Var cost
Fixed Cost
Cash Flow

NPV

300
-300
201.17

1
2
2 2.1071586258
0.6847591882 0.7582458804
1.3152408118 1.3489127453
10.238353159 11.9678937943
20
21
40
42
1
1
280.4322559071 381.133459023
140.2161279535 190.566729512
140.2161279535 190.566729512

Var Cost (Year 1)

20
25
0.5
0.5
Sales Price (Yr 1)

40

5% annual increase
buys (normal)
10
2

Fixed Cost
300
0.5

400
0.5

12%

3
2.219802114
0.822422744
1.39737937
10.45
22.05
44.1
1
379.1209773
189.5604887

4
5
6
7
8
2.363183
0
0
0
0
0.881519
0
0
0
0
1.481665
0
0
0
0
6.872096 9.506003 12.1372 6.231439 13.50201
23.1525 24.31013 25.52563 26.80191 28.14201
46.305 48.62025 51.05126 53.60383 56.28402
1
1
1
1
2
280.5102
0
0
0
0
140.2551
0
0
0
0

189.5604887 140.2551

Duration
2
1

4
0

6
0

8
0

Potential mkt
2 lakhs
Average growth rate

Std Dev
6%

MTR Share Year 1 (triangular dist.)

Min
Mode
Max

1%

No. of buys (normal)

Avg
Std Dev
Truncate (0,50)

20%
40%
50%

Competitors

Interest rate
0
0.8

1
0.2

Life

Year
Potential Mkt
MTR share
Rest
Avg. buys
Var cost
Sales Price
Competitors
Revenue
Total Var cost
Fixed Cost
Cash Flow

NPV

1
2
0.740146
1.259854
10.46367
20
40
1
309.7855
154.8927

2
2.1001014736
0.7936931961
1.3064082775
13.6503428813
21
42
1
455.0357393302
227.5178696651

400
-400 154.8927

227.5178696651

-80.33

Var Cost (Year 1)

20
25
0.5
0.5
Sales Price (Yr 1)

40

5% annual increase
10
2

Fixed Cost
300
0.5

400
0.5

12%

3
4
5
6
7
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9.17 7.463477 9.574618 7.937185 6.476974 13.20124
22.05 23.1525 24.31013 25.52563 26.80191 28.14201
44.1
46.305 48.62025 51.05126 53.60383 56.28402
1
1
1
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Duration
2
0

4
0.5

6
0.25

8
0.25

Potential mkt
2 lakhs
Average growth rate

Std Dev
6%

MTR Share Year 1 (triangular dist.)

Min
Mode
Max

1%

No. of buys (normal)

Avg
Std Dev
Truncate (0,50)

20%
40%
50%

Competitors

Interest rate
0
0.8

1
0.2

Life

Year
Potential Mkt
MTR share
Rest
Avg. buys
Var cost
Sales Price
Competitors
Revenue
Total Var cost
Fixed Cost
Cash Flow

NPV

400
-400
-37.04

1
2
0.733194
1.266806
6.645797
25
40
1
194.9064
121.8165

2
2.1119123225
0.7892443108
1.3226680117
7.1947481083
26.25
42
1
238.4933885193
149.0583678246

73.0899

89.4350206947

Var Cost (Year 1)

20
25
0.5
0.5
Sales Price (Yr 1)

40

5% annual increase
10
2

Fixed Cost
300
0.5

400
0.5

12%

3
2.255809
0.843022
1.412787
8.51
27.5625
44.1
1
316.3338
197.7086

4
5
6
7
8
2.371885
0
0
0
0
0.900464
0
0
0
0
1.471422
0
0
0
0
14.28732 11.32611 10.23309 11.79114 10.45891
28.94063 30.38766 31.90704 33.50239 35.17751
46.305 48.62025 51.05126 53.60383 56.28402
1
2
2
2
2
595.7239
0
0
0
0
372.3275
0
0
0
0

118.6252 223.3965

Duration
2
0.5

4
0.25

6
0.125

8
0.125

Potential mkt
2 lakhs
Average growth rate

Std Dev
1%

6%

MTR Share Year 1 (triangular dist.)

Min
Mode
Max

No. of buys (normal)

Avg
10
Std Dev
2
Truncate (0,50)

20%
40%
50%

Competitors
0
0.8

Interest rat

12%

2
2.162403
0.659582
1.502821
10.5084
26.25
42
1
291.1081
181.9426

3
2.28106
0.768117
1.512944
12.06
27.5625
44.1
1
408.4506
255.2816

400
-400 60.29952 109.1656

153.169

1
0.2

Life

Year
Potential Mkt
MTR share
Rest
Avg. buys
Var cost
Sales Price
Competitors
Revenue
Total Var cost
Fixed Cost
Cash Flow

NPV

Mean Under Moorthi

-78.41

-70.56944

1
2
0.530596
1.469404
7.57632
25
40
1
160.7987
100.4992

Var Cost (Year 1)

20
25
0.5
0.5
Sales Price (Yr 1)

40

5% annual increase

s (normal)
Fixed Cost
300
0.5

400
0.5

4
5
6
7
8
2.402226
0
0
0
0
0.719235
0
0
0
0
1.682991
0
0
0
0
9.03385 10.90659 10.08954 10.69556 9.314771
28.94063 30.38766 31.90704 33.50239 35.17751
46.305 48.62025 51.05126 53.60383 56.28402
2
2
3
4
4
300.8649
0
0
0
0
188.0406
0
0
0
0
112.8243