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Submission By

Section A
Group 6 Members
Vakul Agarwal
Siddhant Joshi
Ananya Bansal
Bhawana Choudhary
Ayush Singhal

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.


Close

Date
27-Mar-15
20-Mar-15
13-Mar-15
5-Mar-15
28-Feb-15
20-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
6-Feb-15
30-Jan-15
23-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
9-Jan-15
2-Jan-15
31-Dec-14
26-Dec-14
19-Dec-14
12-Dec-14
5-Dec-14
28-Nov-14
21-Nov-14
14-Nov-14
7-Nov-14
31-Oct-14
23-Oct-14
17-Oct-14
10-Oct-14
1-Oct-14
26-Sep-14
19-Sep-14

Expected
'CNX500' Expected Return
-Unit Curr
Return
on
on Stock
Market
3,610.05
3,623.85
3,650.70
3,678.75
3,620.85
3,547.35
3,616.95
3,502.60
3,647.35
3,606.70
3,616.60
3,468.20
3,359.60
3,329.80
3,333.10
3,359.40
3,379.30
3,410.10
3,346.20
3,355.05
3,329.55
3,288.35
3,337.25
3,165.50
2,941.10
2,966.20
2,970.95
3,038.00
3,082.40

6846.6
7028.2
7099.9
7303.35
7239.45
7209.4
7176.2
7029.45
7166.7
7170.25
6961.45
6783
6866.45
6773.65
6674.8
6670.15
6680.55
6937.55
6918.05
6847.3
6785.75
6720.95
6685.75
6463.25
6255.15
6330.35
6398.05
6396.55
6561.65

-0.003808
-0.007355
-0.007625
0.015991
0.02072
-0.019243
0.032647
-0.039686
0.011271
-0.002737
0.042789
0.032325
0.008949
-0.00099
-0.007829
-0.005889
-0.009032
0.019096
-0.002638
0.007659
0.012529
-0.014653
0.054257
0.076298
-0.008462
-0.001599
-0.02207
-0.014404

-0.025839
-0.010099
-0.027857
0.008827
0.004168
0.004626
0.020876
-0.019151
-0.000495
0.029994
0.026308
-0.012153
0.0137
0.014809
0.000697
-0.001557
-0.037045
0.002819
0.010333
0.00907
0.009641
0.005265
0.034425
0.033269
-0.011879
-0.010581
0.000235
-0.025161

12-Sep-14
5-Sep-14
28-Aug-14
22-Aug-14
14-Aug-14
8-Aug-14
1-Aug-14
25-Jul-14
18-Jul-14
11-Jul-14
4-Jul-14

2,971.80
2,880.75
2,784.50
2,754.85
2,666.55
2,622.60
2,586.00
2,509.30
2,524.60
2,504.65
2,642.50

6572.7
6502.3
6360.75
6352.35
6215.65
6072.65
6111.7
6230.45
6184.55
5991.7
6297.6

0.037217
0.031606
0.034566
0.010763
0.033114
0.016758
0.014153
0.030566
-0.00606
0.007965
-0.052167

-0.001681
0.010827
0.022254
0.001322
0.021993
0.023548
-0.006389
-0.01906
0.007422
0.032186
-0.048574

27-Jun-14

2,454.70

20-Jun-14
13-Jun-14
6-Jun-14
30-May-14
23-May-14

2,366.40
2,403.35
2,392.05
2,271.80
2,385.85

6082.1 0.076506 0.035432


6038.6
6057.5
6129.95
5802.85
5923.65

0.037314
-0.015374
0.004724
0.052932
-0.047803

0.007204
-0.00312
-0.011819
0.056369
-0.020393

16-May-14
9-May-14
2-May-14
25-Apr-14
17-Apr-14
11-Apr-14
4-Apr-14
28-Mar-14
22-Mar-14
14-Mar-14

2,152.15
1,974.85
1,883.40
1,956.20
1,951.35
1,935.70
1,927.20
1,931.40
1,872.50
1,738.45

5656
5375.9
5260.95
5328.6
5310.75
5317.7
5234.5
5202.15
5037.5
5011.55

0.108589
0.089779
0.048556
-0.037215
0.002485
0.008085
0.004411
-0.002175
0.031455
0.077109

7-Mar-14
28-Feb-14
21-Feb-14
14-Feb-14
7-Feb-14
31-Jan-14
24-Jan-14
17-Jan-14
10-Jan-14
3-Jan-14
31-Dec-13
27-Dec-13

1,735.05
1,589.00
1,675.60
1,643.40
1,664.95
1,636.25
1,774.25
1,775.20
1,794.10
1,798.60
1,763.90
1,775.05

5033.85
4849.5
4762.75
4677.8
4701.7
4709.15
4836.7
4841.3
4813.95
4850.65
4914.85
4914.7

0.00196 -0.00443
0.091913 0.038014
-0.051683 0.018214
0.019594 0.01816
-0.012943 -0.005083
0.01754 -0.001582
-0.077779 -0.026371
-0.000535 -0.00095
-0.010535 0.005681
-0.002502 -0.007566
0.019672 -0.013062
-0.006282 3.05E-005

20-Dec-13
13-Dec-13
6-Dec-13

1,809.65
1,689.60
1,701.50

4861.65 -0.01912 0.010912


4756.05 0.071052 0.022203
4830.8 -0.006994 -0.015474

29-Nov-13
22-Nov-13
14-Nov-13
8-Nov-13
1-Nov-13

1,676.15
1,640.15
1,612.60
1,580.55
1,636.15

4770.1
4632.45
4670.1
4725.9
4823

0.015124
0.021949
0.017084
0.020278
-0.033982

0.012725
0.029714
-0.008062
-0.011807
-0.020133

25-Oct-13
18-Oct-13
11-Oct-13
4-Oct-13
27-Sep-13
20-Sep-13
13-Sep-13

1,508.70
1,468.75
1,464.00
1,428.50
1,366.95
1,467.25
1,315.90

4693.4
4706.9
4651.8
4516.15
4455.95
4560.1
4450.45

0.084477
0.0272
0.003245
0.024851
0.045027
-0.068359
0.115016

0.027613
-0.002868
0.011845
0.030037
0.01351
-0.022839
0.024638

6-Sep-13

1,288.40

4319.4 0.021344

0.03034

30-Aug-13
23-Aug-13
16-Aug-13
8-Aug-13
2-Aug-13
26-Jul-13
19-Jul-13
12-Jul-13
5-Jul-13

1,243.55
1,293.00
1,325.10
1,385.05
1,337.70
1,375.40
1,451.50
1,447.95
1,554.55

4175.85
4183.65
4224.3
4250.35
4314.95
4507.25
4632.75
4630.95
4535.8

28-Jun-13
21-Jun-13

1,537.75
1,554.65

4510.9 0.010925 0.00552


4420.15 -0.010871 0.020531

0.036066
-0.038244
-0.024225
-0.043284
0.035397
-0.02741
-0.052429
0.002452
-0.068573

0.047321
0.052103
0.02185
-0.012696
0.003361
-0.001307
0.015895
0.006219
0.032685
0.005178

0.034376
-0.001864
-0.009623
-0.006129
-0.014971
-0.042665
-0.02709
0.000389
0.020978

14-Jun-13
7-Jun-13
31-May-13
24-May-13
17-May-13
11-May-13
3-May-13
26-Apr-13
18-Apr-13
12-Apr-13
5-Apr-13
28-Mar-13
22-Mar-13
15-Mar-13
8-Mar-13
1-Mar-13
22-Feb-13
15-Feb-13
8-Feb-13
1-Feb-13
25-Jan-13
18-Jan-13
11-Jan-13
4-Jan-13
31-Dec-12
28-Dec-12
21-Dec-12
14-Dec-12
7-Dec-12
30-Nov-12
23-Nov-12
16-Nov-12
9-Nov-12
2-Nov-12
26-Oct-12
19-Oct-12
12-Oct-12
5-Oct-12
28-Sep-12
21-Sep-12
14-Sep-12
8-Sep-12
31-Aug-12
24-Aug-12
17-Aug-12
10-Aug-12
3-Aug-12
27-Jul-12
20-Jul-12
13-Jul-12
6-Jul-12
29-Jun-12
22-Jun-12
15-Jun-12
8-Jun-12

1,514.15
1,554.90
1,605.60
1,674.90
1,708.70
1,734.65
1,665.40
1,673.15
1,524.60
1,408.45
1,406.30
1,281.20
1,305.55
1,406.70
1,428.95
1,424.40
1,438.40
1,475.05
1,587.70
1,609.70
1,599.45
1,547.45
1,565.25
1,545.45
1,490.05
1,500.40
1,504.90
1,477.25
1,509.95
1,473.85
1,493.30
1,438.10
1,463.40
1,465.90
1,365.70
1,369.25
1,372.05
1,387.70
1,350.60
1,311.75
1,261.10
1,209.20
1,143.30
1,190.30
1,177.55
1,165.80
1,120.85
1,112.95
1,147.50
1,183.95
1,215.50
1,169.75
1,102.10
1,106.80
1,124.05

4525.95
4621.1
4681.45
4685.6
4847.1
4779.75
4659.1
4591.65
4526.8
4352.75
4366.65
4438.35
4404.5
4598.2
4660.65
4499.75
4621.8
4647.25
4682.55
4775.9
4816.45
4844.05
4778.15
4844
4743.45
4738.3
4686.9
4698.8
4724.25
4675.25
4474.15
4451.1
4508.8
4510.25
4480.3
4509.45
4506.15
4547.9
4504.35
4456.15
4348.8
4210.9
4129.9
4226
4223.7
4186.95
4129.05
4028.25
4134.75
4156.75
4224.15
4170.65
4063.75
4047.45
4010.95

0.026748
-0.026207
-0.031577
-0.041376
-0.019781
-0.01496
0.041582
-0.004632
0.097435
0.082467
0.001529
0.097643
-0.018651
-0.071906
-0.015571
0.003194
-0.009733
-0.024847
-0.070952
-0.013667
0.006408
0.033604
-0.011372
0.012812
0.03718
-0.006898
-0.00299
0.018717
-0.021656
0.024494
-0.013025
0.038384
-0.017289
-0.001705
0.073369
-0.002593
-0.002041
-0.011278
0.027469
0.029617
0.040163
0.042921
0.05764
-0.039486
0.010828
0.010079
0.040103
0.007098
-0.030109
-0.030787
-0.025956
0.039111
0.061383
-0.004246
-0.015346

-0.023376
-0.02059
-0.012891
-0.000886
-0.033319
0.014091
0.025896
0.01469
0.014326
0.039986
-0.003183
-0.016155
0.007685
-0.042125
-0.013399
0.035758
-0.026407
-0.005476
-0.007539
-0.019546
-0.008419
-0.005698
0.013792
-0.013594
0.021198
0.001087
0.010967
-0.002533
-0.005387
0.010481
0.044947
0.005178
-0.012797
-0.000321
0.006685
-0.006464
0.000732
-0.00918
0.009668
0.010817
0.024685
0.032748
0.019613
-0.02274
0.000545
0.008777
0.014023
0.025023
-0.025757
-0.005293
-0.015956
0.012828
0.026306
0.004027
0.0091

1-Jun-12
25-May-12
18-May-12
11-May-12
4-May-12
28-Apr-12
20-Apr-12
13-Apr-12
4-Apr-12

1,074.85
1,119.00
1,166.65
1,235.25
1,281.30
1,397.45
1,390.70
1,322.75
1,315.70

3851.95
3910.6
3889.05
3928.25
4050.85
4147.1
4226.35
4169.55
4262.2

0.045774
-0.039455
-0.040843
-0.055535
-0.03594
-0.083116
0.004854
0.05137
0.005358

0.041278
-0.014998
0.005541
-0.009979
-0.030265
-0.023209
-0.018751
0.013623
-0.021738

Beta for 2012-2015


0.15
0.1
f(x) = 1.1398773337x + 0.003464594
0.05
0
-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.02

-0.05
-0.1

Beta
Beta
Beta
Beta

of
of
of
of

1.149
1.123
1.112
1.1399

2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2012-2015

Beta = Covariance(expected return on stock, expected return on


market) /
variance(expected
return on stock)
Beta(from
formula)
1.1399
Beta(from slope of the graph)
1.1399
Risk free rate(Govt. Bond Security of 10yr)
7.59%

Market Risk Premium(given)


Expected return of the stock
Expected return of the stock(in %)

10%
0.1898877334
18.99%

Cost Of Debt
Year
Long Term Debt (in millions)
Interest (in millions)
Risk Premium (for top category)
Risk free rate
tax rate
D/E (debt/equity)
D/D+E
E/D+E
(interest/Long Term Debt)
Cost of Debt
(interest/Long Term Debt)*(1-T)
Cost of Debt (in %age)
((Risk free rate+risk premium)*(1-tax rate))
Expected return of the stock(in %)
WACC in %age (KeWe+KdWd)

Mar 15 (12)
6,662.00
2,178.00
1%
7.59%
30%
0.05
0.0476190476
0.9523809524
32.7
22.9
6.013
18.99

19.18

0.04

0.06

PBIT
Tax+
PBIT(1-T)
Depreciation
Total Current Asset
Total Current Liability
Net Working Capital
Change in Working Capital
Free Cash Flow
((EBIT(1-T)+Depreciation-Change in NWC)

11-Mar
31,338.00
8202
23,136.00
10313
57508
39254
18254

12-Mar
22,014.00
5110
16,904.00
11625
64879
54247
10632
-7622
36,151.00

Annual Growth Rate in Free cash flow (in %age)


Average Growth Rate in Free Cash Flow (in %age)
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
12-Mar
13-Mar
Given
14-Mar
15-Mar
16-Mar
Increase in Free
Cash Flow,
17-Mar
taking avg growth rate
18-Mar

36151
56173
63426
82863
110208
146576
194947

19-Mar
20-Mar
21-Mar

259279
344841
358635

5th year onwards


to Perpetuity at
4% growth rate

..
Perpetuity

Value of Equity =
PV of Cash Flow(firm Value) - Debt(Long Term Debt)
Value of Equity (in Millions)
Value of Equity (in Crores)
Outstanding shares
Outstanding shares (in crores)

1,858,898.06
185889.80625
302080060
30.2

Value Per Share =


Value of Equity/no. of outstanding shares

Value per share


Year
Price Earning (P/E)
Average P/E
EPS
Growth Rate
Average Growth Rate
Expected EPS

Expected Price of the share (2016)

6155
Mar 11

Mar 12
16.2
22.06
77.98

0.1451780844
135

2976

24.37
55.37
-0.28994614

Under Priced Value

3180

12-2015

Beta for 2012-2015


Linear (Beta for 2012-2015)
Linear (Beta for 2012-2015)
0.04

0.06

0.08

13-Mar
31,808.00
5989
25,819.00
18897
59250
60075
-825
-11457

14-Mar
15-Mar
38,344.00 50,742.00
8755
11570
29,589.00 39,172.00
21160
25153
55681
53905
69183
85945
-13502
-32040
-12677
-18538

56,173.00
55.3843600454

63,426.00 82,863.00
12.9118971748 30.64516
33.0
Present Value

Present Value from


5th year to
perpetuity
on 20-mar
2362547

Total PV @ 2015

Mar 13

110207.79
122987.381020305
137248.881319858

0
1
2

153164.131696099
170924.899442701
1171026.97905408

3
4

1865560.06253304

Mar 14
16.44
77.85
0.4059960267

Time Line

Mar 15
21.88
31.41
90.11
0.1574823378

117.79
0.30718

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd


Expecte
Expected d Return
Return On On
Stock
Market
Date
27/03/2015
20/03/2015
13/03/2015
5/3/2015
28/02/2015
20/02/2015
13/02/2015
6/2/2015
30/01/2015
23/01/2015
16/01/2015
9/1/2015
2/1/2015
31/12/2014
26/12/2014
19/12/2014
###
5/12/2014
28/11/2014
21/11/2014
14/11/2014
7/11/2014
31/10/2014
23/10/2014
17/10/2014
###
1/10/2014
26/09/2014
19/09/2014
12/9/2014
5/9/2014
28/08/2014
22/08/2014
14/08/2014
8/8/2014
1/8/2014
25/07/2014
18/07/2014

Close
CNX500'
-Unit
Curr
1,188.50 6846.6
1,165.30 7028.2 0.019909036
1,227.75 7099.9 -0.0508654
1,228.65 7303.35 -0.00073251
1,291.95 7239.45 -0.0489957
1,252.00 7209.4 0.031908946
1,192.55 7176.2 0.049851159
1,149.75 7029.45 0.037225484
1,265.10 7166.7 -0.09117856
1,361.90 7170.25 -0.07107717
1,304.60 6961.45 0.043921509
1,238.20
6783 0.053626232
1,224.65 6866.45 0.011064386
1,234.45 6773.65 -0.00793876
1,255.30 6674.8 -0.01660958
1,222.25 6670.15 0.027040295
1,251.40 6680.55 -0.02329391
1,294.05 6937.55 -0.03295854
1,323.75 6918.05 -0.02243626
1,246.70 6847.3 0.06180316
1,255.85 6785.75 -0.0072859
1,239.10 6720.95 0.013517876
1,306.20 6685.75 -0.05137039
1,263.70 6463.25
0.0336314
1,253.75 6255.15 0.007936191
1,317.40 6330.35 -0.04831486
1,389.65 6398.05 -0.05199151
1,393.45 6396.55 -0.00272704
1,373.55 6561.65 0.014488006
1,389.25 6572.7 -0.01130106
1,408.20 6502.3 -0.0134569
1,407.20 6360.75 0.000710631
1,391.85 6352.35 0.011028487
1,321.85 6215.65 0.052956084
1,229.35 6072.65 0.075243015
1,174.15 6111.7 0.047012733
1,210.60 6230.45 -0.03010904
1,183.65 6184.55 0.022768555

11/7/2014

1,164.35

4/7/2014
27/06/2014
20/06/2014
13/06/2014
6/6/2014

1,230.05 6297.6
1,153.50 6082.1
1,143.95 6038.6
1,228.85 6057.5
1,232.80 6129.95

-0.02584
-0.0101
-0.02786
0.008827
0.004168
0.004626
0.020876
-0.01915
-0.0005
0.029994
0.026308
-0.01215
0.0137
0.014809
0.000697
-0.00156
-0.03704
0.002819
0.010333
0.00907
0.009641
0.005265
0.034425
0.033269
-0.01188
-0.01058
0.000235
-0.02516
-0.00168
0.010827
0.022254
0.001322
0.021993
0.023548
-0.00639
-0.01906
0.007422

5991.7 0.016575772 0.032186


-0.05341246
0.066363242
0.008348267
-0.06908899
-0.00320409

-0.04857
0.035432
0.007204
-0.00312
-0.01182

30/05/2014
23/05/2014
16/05/2014
9/5/2014
2/5/2014
25/04/2014
17/04/2014
11/4/2014
4/4/2014
28/03/2014
22/03/2014

1,235.50
1,159.30
1,114.70
1,102.55
1,057.85
1,070.70
996.95
1,005.50
999
968.25
973.9

5802.85
5923.65
5656
5375.9
5260.95
5328.6
5310.75
5317.7
5234.5
5202.15
5037.5

-0.00218535
0.065729319
0.040010765
0.011019908
0.042255518
-0.01200149
0.073975626
-0.00850323
0.006506507
0.031758327
-0.00580142

0.056369
-0.02039
0.047321
0.052103
0.02185
-0.0127
0.003361
-0.00131
0.015895
0.006219
0.032685

14/03/2014 1,027.00 5011.55 -0.05170399 0.005178


7/3/2014
983.55 5033.85 0.044176707 -0.00443
28/02/2014
974.5 4849.5 0.009286814 0.038014
21/02/2014
930 4762.75 0.047849462 0.018214
14/02/2014
904.4 4677.8 0.028306059 0.01816
7/2/2014
895.55 4701.7 0.009882195 -0.00508
31/01/2014
890.2 4709.15 0.006009885 -0.00158
24/01/2014
884.8 4836.7 0.006103074 -0.02637
17/01/2014
899.55 4841.3 -0.01639709 -0.00095
10/1/2014
874.55 4813.95 0.02858613 0.005681
3/1/2014
900.25 4850.65 -0.02854763 -0.00757
31/12/2013
944.2 4914.85 -0.04654734 -0.01306
27/12/2013
967.15 4914.7 -0.02372951 3.1E-005
20/12/2013
969.8 4861.65 -0.00273252 0.010912

13/12/2013
6/12/2013
29/11/2013
22/11/2013
14/11/2013
8/11/2013
1/11/2013
25/10/2013
18/10/2013
###

950.55 4756.05 0.020251433 0.022203


945.3 4830.8 0.005553792 -0.01547
945.25 4770.1 5.2896E-005 0.012725
936.55 4632.45 0.009289413 0.029714
925.15 4670.1 0.012322326 -0.00806
878.6 4725.9 0.052982017 -0.01181
925.3
4823 -0.05047012 -0.02013
867.75 4693.4 0.066320945 0.027613
882.7 4706.9 -0.01693667 -0.00287
872.5 4651.8 0.011690544 0.011845

4/10/2013
27/09/2013
20/09/2013
13/09/2013
6/9/2013
30/08/2013
23/08/2013
16/08/2013
8/8/2013
2/8/2013
26/07/2013

858.8
844
874.2
830.3
769.45
783.25
813.8
840.1
863.7
854.75
894.85

4516.15
4455.95
4560.1
4450.45
4319.4
4175.85
4183.65
4224.3
4250.35
4314.95
4507.25

0.015952492
0.017535545
-0.03454587
0.052872456
0.079082461
-0.0176189
-0.03753994
-0.0313058
-0.0273243
0.010470898
-0.04481198

0.030037
0.01351
-0.02284
0.024638
0.03034
0.034376
-0.00186
-0.00962
-0.00613
-0.01497
-0.04266

19/07/2013
12/7/2013
5/7/2013
28/06/2013
21/06/2013
14/06/2013
7/6/2013
31/05/2013
24/05/2013
17/05/2013
11/5/2013
3/5/2013
26/04/2013
18/04/2013
12/4/2013
5/4/2013
28/03/2013
22/03/2013
15/03/2013
8/3/2013
1/3/2013
22/02/2013
15/02/2013
8/2/2013
1/2/2013
25/01/2013
18/01/2013
11/1/2013
4/1/2013
31/12/2012
28/12/2012
21/12/2012
14/12/2012
7/12/2012
30/11/2012
23/11/2012
16/11/2012
9/11/2012
2/11/2012
26/10/2012
19/10/2012
###
5/10/2012
28/09/2012
21/09/2012
14/09/2012
8/9/2012
31/08/2012
24/08/2012
17/08/2012
10/8/2012
3/8/2012
27/07/2012

879.25
907.25
971.65
970.6
939.65
949
966.35
967.55
968.1
987.3
967.6
961
889.75
903.9
823.35
837.9
861.3
873.35
927.75
904.2
887.1
895.25
897.95
884.6
886.1
901.5
886
937.9
941.25
931.65
924.6
937.55
952.1
939.2
947
954.05
894.45
909.4
917.45
880.9
823.75
854.2
869
864.7
808.9
777.2
765.25
763.15
761.95
769.35
739.55
684.8
687.45

4632.75
4630.95
4535.8
4510.9
4420.15
4525.95
4621.1
4681.45
4685.6
4847.1
4779.75
4659.1
4591.65
4526.8
4352.75
4366.65
4438.35
4404.5
4598.2
4660.65
4499.75
4621.8
4647.25
4682.55
4775.9
4816.45
4844.05
4778.15
4844
4743.45
4738.3
4686.9
4698.8
4724.25
4675.25
4474.15
4451.1
4508.8
4510.25
4480.3
4509.45
4506.15
4547.9
4504.35
4456.15
4348.8
4210.9
4129.9
4226
4223.7
4186.95
4129.05
4028.25

0.017742394
-0.0308625
-0.06627901
0.001081805
0.032937796
-0.00985248
-0.01795416
-0.00124025
-0.00056812
-0.01944698
0.020359653
0.006867846
0.080078674
-0.01565439
0.097832028
-0.01736484
-0.02716823
-0.01379745
-0.05863649
0.026045123
0.019276294
-0.0091036
-0.00300685
0.015091567
-0.00169281
-0.01708264
0.017494357
-0.05533639
-0.0035591
0.010304299
0.007624919
-0.0138126
-0.01528201
0.013735094
-0.00823654
-0.00738955
0.066633127
-0.01643941
-0.00877432
0.041491656
0.069377845
-0.03564739
-0.01703107
0.004972823
0.068982569
0.040787442
0.015615812
0.002751753
0.001574906
-0.00961851
0.040294774
0.07995035
-0.00385483

-0.02709
0.000389
0.020978
0.00552
0.020531
-0.02338
-0.02059
-0.01289
-0.00089
-0.03332
0.014091
0.025896
0.01469
0.014326
0.039986
-0.00318
-0.01615
0.007685
-0.04213
-0.0134
0.035758
-0.02641
-0.00548
-0.00754
-0.01955
-0.00842
-0.0057
0.013792
-0.01359
0.021198
0.001087
0.010967
-0.00253
-0.00539
0.010481
0.044947
0.005178
-0.0128
-0.00032
0.006685
-0.00646
0.000732
-0.00918
0.009668
0.010817
0.024685
0.032748
0.019613
-0.02274
0.000545
0.008777
0.014023
0.025023

20/07/2012
13/07/2012
6/7/2012
29/06/2012
22/06/2012
15/06/2012
8/6/2012
1/6/2012
25/05/2012
18/05/2012
11/5/2012
4/5/2012
28/04/2012
20/04/2012
13/04/2012
4/4/2012

703.15
719.85
731.55
707.25
697.8
698.45
688.7
645.15
638.3
641.45
655.05
687.05
714.6
726.45
691.85
697.8

4134.75
4156.75
4224.15
4170.65
4063.75
4047.45
4010.95
3851.95
3910.6
3889.05
3928.25
4050.85
4147.1
4226.35
4169.55
4262.2

-0.0223281
-0.02319928
-0.01599344
0.034358431
0.013542562
-0.00093063
0.014157108
0.067503681
0.010731631
-0.00491075
-0.02076177
-0.04657594
-0.03855304
-0.0163122
0.050010841
-0.0085268

-0.02576
-0.00529
-0.01596
0.012828
0.026306
0.004027
0.0091
0.041278
-0.015
0.005541
-0.00998
-0.03027
-0.02321
-0.01875
0.013623
-0.02174

BETA
0.15
0.1

-0.06

0.05
f(x) = 0.7865642988x + 0.0014800697
0
-0.04
-0.02
-0.05 0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.

-0.1
-0.15
Beta
Beta
Beta
Beta

of
of
of
of

2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2012-2015

0.772
0.815
0.7764
0.786564299

BETA = Covariance(expected return on stock, expected


return on market) /
variance(expected return on stock)
Beta(from formula)
Beta(from slope of the graph)
Risk free rate(Govt. Bond Security of 10yr)
Market Risk Premium(given)
Expected return of the stock
Expected return of the stock(in %)

0.786564299
0.786
7.59%
10%
0.15455643
15.46%

Cost Of Debt
Year
Long Term Debt (in millions)
Interest (in millions)
Risk Premium (for top category)
Risk free rate
tax rate
D/E (debt/equity)
D/D+E
E/D+E
(interest/Long Term Debt)

Mar 15
(12)
379,114.60
31,566.90
1%
7.59%
30%
0.22
0.180327869
0.819672131
8.3

Cost of Debt
(interest/Long Term Debt)*(1-T)
Cost of Debt (in %age)
((Risk free rate+risk premium)*(1-tax rate))
Expected return of the stock(in %)
WACC in %age (KeWe+KdWd)

5.8

As, Cost of debt from Interest/Long te


6.013 debt is
15.46 less than 6%, so we will consider
13.72

11-Mar
35,921.00
8,575.10
27,345.90
4,138.60
-1977.3

PBIT
Tax+
PBIT(1-T)
Depreciation
Net Working Capital
Change in Working Capital
Free Cash Flow
((EBIT(1-T)+Depreciation-Change in NWC)

12-Mar
37,686.40
7,270.00
30,416.40
5,761.40
-459
1518.3

13-Mar
46,382.80
10,942.70
35,440.10
7,108.10
2311.9
2770.9

34,659.50

39,777.30
14.7659371889

Annual Growth Rate in Free cash flow (in %age)


Average Growth Rate in Free Cash Flow (in %age)

28.5

Free Cash Flow (in millions)


Given
Increase in Free
Cash Flow,
taking avg growth rate

5th year onwards


to Perpetuity at
4% growth rate

12-Mar
13-Mar
14-Mar
15-Mar
16-Mar
17-Mar
18-Mar

19-Mar
20-Mar
21-Mar

34,659.50
39,777.30
30,609.90
59,323.30
135554
309740
707757
Present Value
from
5th year to
perpetuity
1617224 on 20-mar
3695356
3843171
39376748

..
Perpetuity
Total PV @ 2015

VALUE OF EQUITY =
PV of Cash Flow(firm Value) - Debt(Long Term
Debt)
Value of Equity (in Millions)
Value of Equity (in Crores)
Outstanding shares
Outstanding shares (in crores)

7,728,500
772,850
###
62.1

Value Per Share =


Value of Equity/no. of outstanding shares

12443

Year

Mar 11

Mar 12

Mar 13

Price Earning (P/E)


Average P/E
EPS (annualised) (Unit Curr)
Average EPS
EPS (annualised) (Unit Curr) (2016)
EXPECTED PRICE OF THE SHARE(2016)
UNDER PRICED VALUE

15.99
16.802
43.69
0.063
57.9
972
11471

14.78

15.59

47.16
0.07942321

55.22
0.1709075488

BETA
Linear (BETA)
0.06

0.08

om Interest/Long term

e will consider

14-Mar
46,286.50
6,110.80
40,175.70
8,633.40
20511.1
18199.2

15-Mar
43,831.90
8,477.80
35,354.10
9,749.00
6290.9
-14220.2

30,609.90
59,323.30
-23.04681313 93.8042921
28.5

Present Value Time Line

135554
272371
547281

0
1
2

1099663
2209576
3843171

3
4

8107615

Mar 14

Mar 15

15.84

21.81

61.9
54.44
0.1209706628 -0.12051696

TATA Motors
Close

Date

3/27/2015
3/20/2015
3/13/2015
3/5/2015
2/28/2015
2/20/2015
2/13/2015
2/6/2015
1/30/2015
1/23/2015
1/16/2015
1/9/2015
1/2/2015
###
###
###
###
12/5/2014
###
###
###
11/7/2014
###
###
###
###
10/1/2014
9/26/2014
9/19/2014
9/12/2014
9/5/2014
8/28/2014
8/22/2014
8/14/2014
8/8/2014
8/1/2014
7/25/2014

Expecte
d
'CNX500'
-Unit Curr
Return
on
Stock
529.67 6846.6
541.79 7028.2 -0.02237
552.43 7099.9 -0.01926
564.64 7303.35 -0.02162
587.05 7239.45 -0.03817
573.75 7209.4 0.02318
559.55 7176.2 0.02538
553.66 7029.45 0.01064
578.94 7166.7 -0.04367
582.21 7170.25 -0.00562
520.17 6961.45 0.11927
516.76
6783 0.0066
506.37 6866.45 0.02052
490.29 6773.65 0.0328
480 6674.8 0.02144
480.74 6670.15 -0.00154
494.65 6680.55 -0.02812
519.78 6937.55 -0.04835
527.84 6918.05 -0.01527
525.37 6847.3 0.0047
518.34 6785.75 0.01356
527.69 6720.95 -0.01772
530.16 6685.75 -0.00466
510.18 6463.25 0.03916
470.75 6255.15 0.08376
487.47 6330.35 -0.0343
497.42 6398.05
-0.02
505.68 6396.55 -0.01633
513.39 6561.65 -0.01502
511.71 6572.7 0.00328
500.63 6502.3 0.02213
519.48 6360.75 -0.03629
506.12 6352.35 0.0264
479.46 6215.65 0.0556
428.31 6072.65 0.11942
435.33 6111.7 -0.01613
456.21 6230.45 -0.04577

7/18/2014

470.26 6184.55

7/11/2014

441.22

7/4/2014

464.47

5991.7

Expecte
d
Return
on
Market
-0.02584
-0.0101
-0.02786
0.00883
0.00417
0.00463
0.02088
-0.01915
-0.0005
0.02999
0.02631
-0.01215
0.0137
0.01481
0.0007
-0.00156
-0.03704
0.00282
0.01033
0.00907
0.00964
0.00526
0.03443
0.03327
-0.01188
-0.01058
0.00023
-0.02516
-0.00168
0.01083
0.02225
0.00132
0.02199
0.02355
-0.00639
-0.01906

-0.02988 0.00742

0.06582 0.03219
6297.6 -0.05006 -0.04857

0.1

0.

0.0
f(x) = 1.2148509045x + 0.00
-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

-0.0

-0.

-0.1

-0.

6/27/2014
6/20/2014
6/13/2014
6/6/2014
5/30/2014
5/23/2014
5/16/2014
5/9/2014
5/2/2014
4/25/2014
4/17/2014

427.76
433.4
433.6
434.44
410.65
426.72
445.08
422.96
410.35
418.76
424.55

6082.1
6038.6
6057.5
6129.95
5802.85
5923.65
5656
5375.9
5260.95
5328.6
5310.75

4/11/2014

419.11

5317.7

3/22/2014
3/14/2014
3/7/2014
2/28/2014
2/21/2014
2/14/2014
2/7/2014
1/31/2014
1/24/2014

384.87
389.08
404.76
412.53
392
384.67
356.38
345.84
366.47

5037.5
5011.55
5033.85
4849.5
4762.75
4677.8
4701.7
4709.15
4836.7

1/17/2014

365.78

4841.3

1/10/2014
1/3/2014
###
###
###
###
12/6/2013
###
###

363.11
358.85
372.41
367.95
369.74
366.42
386.75
394.47
370.18

4813.95
4850.65
4914.85
4914.7
4861.65
4756.05
4830.8
4770.1
4632.45

###

382.94

4670.1

11/8/2013
11/1/2013
###
###
###
10/4/2013

380.07 4725.9
380.52
4823
372.26 4693.4
375.62 4706.9
381.21 4651.8
346.34 4516.15

9/27/2013

336.49 4455.95

9/20/2013

334.76

0.08582
-0.01301
-0.00046
-0.00193
0.05793
-0.03766
-0.04125
0.0523
0.03073
-0.02008
-0.01364

0.03543
0.0072
-0.00312
-0.01182
0.05637
-0.02039
0.04732
0.0521
0.02185
-0.0127
0.00336

0.01298 -0.00131
4/4/2014
401.2 5234.5 0.04464 0.01589
3/28/2014 393.08 5202.15 0.02066 0.00622

0.02133
-0.01082
-0.03874
-0.01883
0.05237
0.01906
0.07938
0.03048
-0.05629

0.03268
0.00518
-0.00443
0.03801
0.01821
0.01816
-0.00508
-0.00158
-0.02637

0.00189
0.00735
0.01187
-0.03641
0.01212
-0.00484
0.00906
-0.05257
-0.01957
0.06562

-0.00095
0.00568
-0.00757
-0.01306
3E-005
0.01091
0.0222
-0.01547
0.01273
0.02971

-0.03332
0.00755
-0.00118
0.02219
-0.00895
-0.01466
0.10068

-0.00806
-0.01181
-0.02013
0.02761
-0.00287
0.01184
0.03004

0.02927 0.01351
4560.1 0.00517 -0.02284

9/13/2013
9/6/2013
8/30/2013
8/23/2013
8/16/2013
8/8/2013
8/2/2013
7/26/2013
7/19/2013
7/12/2013
7/5/2013
6/28/2013
6/21/2013
6/14/2013
6/7/2013
5/31/2013
5/24/2013
5/17/2013
5/11/2013
5/3/2013
4/26/2013
4/18/2013
4/12/2013
4/5/2013
3/28/2013
3/22/2013
3/15/2013
3/8/2013
3/1/2013
2/22/2013
2/15/2013
2/8/2013
2/1/2013
1/25/2013
1/18/2013
1/11/2013
1/4/2013
###
###
###
###
12/7/2012
###
###
###
11/9/2012
11/2/2012
###
###

330.51
314.43
296.07
297.76
310.62
275.84
287.37
286.87
291.52
289.4
293.06
278.32
284
293.65
298.7
309.98
285.04
300.13
304.29
282.57
293.16
279.45
272.23
252.49
266.29
267.48
288.01
300.58
285.34
289.79
301.22
282.37
278.66
297.81
325.06
326.89
312.05
309.33
306.76
296.22
289
278.91
270.55
257.74
262.19
277.62
267.18
258.73
266.15

4450.45
4319.4
4175.85
4183.65
4224.3
4250.35
4314.95
4507.25
4632.75
4630.95
4535.8
4510.9
4420.15
4525.95
4621.1
4681.45
4685.6
4847.1
4779.75
4659.1
4591.65
4526.8
4352.75
4366.65
4438.35
4404.5
4598.2
4660.65
4499.75
4621.8
4647.25
4682.55
4775.9
4816.45
4844.05
4778.15
4844
4743.45
4738.3
4686.9
4698.8
4724.25
4675.25
4474.15
4451.1
4508.8
4510.25
4480.3
4509.45

0.01286
0.05114
0.06201
-0.00568
-0.0414
0.12609
-0.04012
0.00174
-0.01595
0.00733
-0.01249
0.05296
-0.02
-0.03286
-0.01691
-0.03639
0.0875
-0.05028
-0.01367
0.07687
-0.03612
0.04906
0.02652
0.07818
-0.05182
-0.00445
-0.07128
-0.04182
0.05341
-0.01536
-0.03795
0.06676
0.01331
-0.0643
-0.08383
-0.0056
0.04756
0.00879
0.00838
0.03558
0.02498
0.03618
0.0309
0.0497
-0.01697
-0.05558
0.03907
0.03266
-0.02788

0.02464
0.03034
0.03438
-0.00186
-0.00962
-0.00613
-0.01497
-0.04266
-0.02709
0.00039
0.02098
0.00552
0.02053
-0.02338
-0.02059
-0.01289
-0.00089
-0.03332
0.01409
0.0259
0.01469
0.01433
0.03999
-0.00318
-0.01615
0.00769
-0.04213
-0.0134
0.03576
-0.02641
-0.00548
-0.00754
-0.01955
-0.00842
-0.0057
0.01379
-0.01359
0.0212
0.00109
0.01097
-0.00253
-0.00539
0.01048
0.04495
0.00518
-0.0128
-0.00032
0.00668
-0.00646

###
10/5/2012
9/28/2012
9/21/2012
9/14/2012
9/8/2012
8/31/2012
8/24/2012
8/17/2012
8/10/2012
8/3/2012
7/27/2012
7/20/2012
7/13/2012
7/6/2012
6/29/2012
6/22/2012
6/15/2012
6/8/2012
6/1/2012
5/25/2012
5/18/2012
5/11/2012
5/4/2012
4/28/2012
4/20/2012
4/13/2012
4/4/2012

268.37
277.57
264.71
272.53
267.43
243.09
231.81
243.44
237.65
229.49
218.61
210.59
221.03
233.45
238.1
239.88
244.48
237.75
236.66
222.17
266.2
257.14
294.34
298.6
309.78
313.29
286.23
275.59

4506.15
4547.9
4504.35
4456.15
4348.8
4210.9
4129.9
4226
4223.7
4186.95
4129.05
4028.25
4134.75
4156.75
4224.15
4170.65
4063.75
4047.45
4010.95
3851.95
3910.6
3889.05
3928.25
4050.85
4147.1
4226.35
4169.55
4262.2

-0.00827
-0.03314
0.04858
-0.02869
0.01907
0.10013
0.04866
-0.04777
0.02436
0.03556
0.04977
0.03808
-0.04723
-0.0532
-0.01953
-0.00742
-0.01882
0.02831
0.00461
0.06522
-0.1654
0.03523
-0.12638
-0.01427
-0.03609
-0.0112
0.09454
0.03861

0.00073
-0.00918
0.00967
0.01082
0.02468
0.03275
0.01961
-0.02274
0.00054
0.00878
0.01402
0.02502
-0.02576
-0.00529
-0.01596
0.01283
0.02631
0.00403
0.0091
0.04128
-0.015
0.00554
-0.00998
-0.03027
-0.02321
-0.01875
0.01362
-0.02174

Beta
0.15
0.1
0.05
f(x) = 1.2148509045x + 0.0012576762

beta

Linear (b

0
-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

-0.05

0.02

0.04

-0.1
-0.15
-0.2
Beta
Beta
Beta
Beta

of
of
of
of

2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2012-2015

1.5244
0.8861
1.2263
1.2149

Beta(from formula)
Beta(from slope of the graph)
Risk free rate(Govt. Bond Security of 10yr)
Market Risk Premium(given)
Expected return of the stock
Expected return of the stock(in %)
Cost Of Debt
Year
Long Term Debt (in millions)
Interest (in millions)
Risk Premium (for top category)
Risk free rate
tax rate
D/E (debt/equity)
D/D+E
E/D+E
(interest/Long Term Debt)
Cost of Debt
(interest/Long Term Debt)*(1-T)
Cost of Debt (in %age)
((Risk free rate+risk premium)*(1-tax rate))
Expected return of the stock(in %)

1.2149
1.2149
7.59%
10%
0.19739
19.74
Mar 15
(12)
200,809.70
16,116.80
3%
7.59%
30%
1.06
0.51456311
0.48543689
8.03
5.6
7.413
19.74

0.06

0.08

WACC in %age (KeWe+KdWd)

PBIT
Tax+
PBIT(1-T)
Depreciation
Net Working Capital
Change in Working Capital
Free Cash Flow
((EBIT(1-T)+Depreciation-Change in NWC)

12.47

11-Mar
35,802.20
3,847.00
31,955.20
13,607.70
-51,888.20

Annual Growth Rate in Free cash flow (in %age)


Average Growth Rate in Free Cash Flow (in %age)

Free Cash Flow (in millions)


Given
Increase in Free
Cash Flow,
taking avg growth rate

5th year onwards


to Perpetuity at
4% growth rate

12-Mar
13-Mar
14-Mar
16-Mar
17-Mar
18-Mar

19-Mar
20-Mar
21-Mar
..
Perpetuity

VALUE OF EQUITY =
PV of Cash Flow(firm Value) - Debt(Long Term
Debt)
Value of Equity (in Millions)
Value of Equity (in Crores)
Outstanding shares
Outstanding shares (in crores)
Value Per Share =
Value of Equity/no. of outstanding shares
VALUE PER SHARE

239,961.85
23996.1851
###
288.7

83

Year
Price Earning (P/E)
Average P/E
EPS (annualised) (Unit Curr)
Average EPS
EPS (annualised) (Unit Curr) (2016)
EXPECTED PRICE OF THE SHARE(2016)
UNDERPRICED VALUE

Mar 11
48.9
209.456
25.51
-0.647
0.3
55
28

Beta

02

beta
Linear (beta)
0.04

0.06

0.08

12-Mar
25,596.50
988.00
24,608.50
16,067.40
-89121
-37,232.80
77,908.70

13-Mar
15,626.90
-1,268.80
16,895.70
18,176.20
-67394
21727
13,344.90

14-Mar
3,273.80
-13,603.20
16,877.00
20,703.00
-63618.8
3775.2
33,804.80

15-Mar
-23,630.40
7,642.30
-31,272.70
26032.2
-38676.3
24942.5
-30183.00

-82.8711042541 153.3162482

-189.28613688

35.2

(in millions)

Present Value Time Line


77,908.70
13,344.90
33,804.80
45704
61792
83543

Present Value from


5th year to
perpetuity
112950 on 20-mar
152708
158816
1627217

45704
54941
66044

0
1
2

79392
95437
99254

3
4

..
Perpetuity
Total PV @ 2015

440772

Mar 12

Mar 13
82.54
3.34
-0.8690709526

Mar 14
Mar 15
384.71
531.13

0.7
0.75
-0.7904191617 0.071428571

0
0
-1

for calculating average growth rate, ignoring the march 15 values, as that
year,
company had huge operating losses, due to which free cash flow came
negative. So, to interpret future cash flows it would be better if average
growth is taken for march,13 and march,14.

Escorts Ltd
Close
expected return on s expected return on market
'CNX500'
-Unit Curr
3/27/2015
125.55 6846.6
3/20/2015
131.4 7028.2
-0.0445205479
-0.0258387638
3/13/2015
140.4 7099.9
-0.0641025641
-0.0100987338
3/5/2015
135.85 7303.35
0.033492823
-0.0278570793
2/28/2015
134.35 7239.45
0.0111648679
0.0088266374
2/20/2015
132.65 7209.4
0.0128156804
0.0041681693
2/13/2015
124.35 7176.2
0.0667470848
0.0046264039
2/6/2015
122.1 7029.45
0.0184275184
0.0208764555
1/30/2015
129.15 7166.7
-0.0545876887
-0.0191510737
1/23/2015
127.15 7170.25
0.0157294534
-0.0004951013
1/16/2015
130.25 6961.45
-0.0238003839
0.0299937513
1/9/2015
126.2
6783
0.0320919176
0.0263084181
1/2/2015
128.25 6866.45
-0.0159844055
-0.0121532961
12/31/2014
128.55 6773.65
-0.0023337223
0.0137001469
12/26/2014
126.2 6674.8
0.0186212361
0.0148094325
12/19/2014
123.15 6670.15
0.0247665449
0.0006971357
12/12/2014
122.95 6680.55
0.0016266775
-0.0015567581
12/5/2014
133.35 6937.55
-0.0779902512
-0.0370447781
11/28/2014
140.1 6918.05
-0.0481798715
0.0028187134
11/21/2014
144.35 6847.3
-0.0294423277
0.0103325398
11/14/2014
146.35 6785.75
-0.0136658695
0.0090704786
11/7/2014
154 6720.95
-0.0496753247
0.0096414941
10/31/2014
169.75 6685.75
-0.0927835052
0.0052649291
10/23/2014
166.35 6463.25
0.0204388338
0.0344254052
10/17/2014
157.35 6255.15
0.0571973308
0.0332685867
10/10/2014
160.45 6330.35
-0.0193206606
-0.01187928
10/1/2014
149.4 6398.05
0.0739625167
-0.010581349
9/26/2014
146.15 6396.55
0.0222374273
0.0002345014
9/19/2014
164.2 6561.65
-0.1099269184
-0.0251613542
9/12/2014
147.75 6572.7
0.1113367174
-0.0016811965
9/5/2014
128.3 6502.3
0.1515978176
0.0108269382
8/28/2014
113.85 6360.75
0.1269213878
0.0222536651
8/22/2014
112.8 6352.35
0.0093085106
0.0013223453
8/14/2014
109.85 6215.65
0.026854802
0.0219928728
8/8/2014
111.1 6072.65
-0.0112511251
0.0235482038
8/1/2014
114.6 6111.7
-0.0305410122
-0.0063893843
7/25/2014
122.85 6230.45
-0.0671550672
-0.0190596185
7/18/2014
123 6184.55
-0.0012195122
0.0074217203
7/11/2014
117.5 5991.7
0.0468085106
0.0321861909
7/4/2014
138.55 6297.6
-0.1519307109
-0.04857406
6/27/2014
135.9 6082.1
0.0194996321
0.035431841
6/20/2014
135.2 6038.6
0.0051775148
0.0072036565
6/13/2014
137.45 6057.5
-0.0163695889
-0.0031200991
6/6/2014
134 6129.95
0.0257462687
-0.0118190197
5/30/2014
124.8 5802.85
0.0737179487
0.0563688532
5/23/2014
129 5923.65
-0.0325581395
-0.0203928321
5/16/2014
117.5
5656
0.0978723404
0.0473214286
Date

5/9/2014

107.45

5375.9

0.0935318753

0.0521029037

5/2/2014

121.7 5260.95

4/25/2014
4/17/2014
4/11/2014
4/4/2014
3/28/2014
3/22/2014
3/14/2014
3/7/2014
2/28/2014
2/21/2014
2/14/2014
2/7/2014
1/31/2014
1/24/2014
1/17/2014

123.8
127.05
133.25
123.2
114.95
116.8
116.95
123.4
115
116.85
109.9
120.2
124.05
119.75
115.7

5328.6
5310.75
5317.7
5234.5
5202.15
5037.5
5011.55
5033.85
4849.5
4762.75
4677.8
4701.7
4709.15
4836.7
4841.3

1/10/2014

119.15 4813.95

1/3/2014
12/31/2013
12/27/2013
12/20/2013
12/13/2013
12/6/2013
11/29/2013
11/22/2013
11/14/2013
11/8/2013
11/1/2013

124.8
137.55
138.8
137.2
120.75
127.7
117.25
115.85
115.7
114.8
103.75

4850.65
4914.85
4914.7
4861.65
4756.05
4830.8
4770.1
4632.45
4670.1
4725.9
4823

10/25/2013

93.25

4693.4

10/18/2013
10/11/2013
10/4/2013
9/27/2013
9/20/2013
9/13/2013

93.8 4706.9
97.05 4651.8
87 4516.15
82.1 4455.95
83.5 4560.1
84.2 4450.45

9/6/2013

84.75

4319.4

8/30/2013
8/23/2013
8/16/2013
8/8/2013
8/2/2013
7/26/2013

82.3
88.9
88.8
69.8
68.2
81.85

4175.85
4183.65
4224.3
4250.35
4314.95
4507.25

7/19/2013

87.55 4632.75

7/12/2013
7/5/2013

85 4630.95
74.2 4535.8

-0.1170912079
-0.0169628433
-0.0255804801
-0.0465290807
0.0815746753
0.0717703349
-0.0158390411
-0.0012825994
-0.0522690438
0.0730434783
-0.0158322636
0.0632393085
-0.0856905158
-0.0310358726
0.035908142
0.0350043215

0.0218496659
-0.0126956424
0.0033611072
-0.001306956
0.0158945458
0.0062185827
0.0326848635
0.0051780387
-0.0044300088
0.0380142283
0.018214267
0.0181602463
-0.0050832678
-0.0015820265
-0.0263712862
-0.000950158

-0.0289550986
0.0056814051
-0.0452724359
-0.0075659963
-0.092693566
-0.0130624536
-0.0090057637 3.0520682849522E-005
0.0116618076
0.0109119332
0.1362318841
0.022203299
-0.0544244323
-0.0154736276
0.0891257996
0.0127251001
0.0120845921
0.029714298
0.0012964564
-0.0080619259
0.0078397213
-0.0118072748
0.1065060241
-0.0201326975

0.1126005362
-0.0058635394
-0.0334878928
0.1155172414
0.059683313
-0.0167664671
-0.0083135392

0.0276132441
-0.0028681298
0.0118448773
0.0300366463
0.0135100259
-0.0228394114
0.024637958

-0.0064896755
0.0297691373
-0.0742407199
0.0011261261
0.2722063037
0.0234604106
-0.1667684789

0.030339862
0.0343762348
-0.0018644007
-0.0096228961
-0.006128907
-0.0149712048
-0.0426645959

-0.0651056539
0.03
0.1455525606

-0.0270897415
0.0003886891
0.0209775563

6/28/2013
6/21/2013
6/14/2013
6/7/2013
5/31/2013
5/24/2013
5/17/2013
5/11/2013
5/3/2013
4/26/2013
4/18/2013
4/12/2013
4/5/2013
3/28/2013
3/22/2013
3/15/2013
3/8/2013
3/1/2013
2/22/2013
2/15/2013
2/8/2013
2/1/2013
1/25/2013
1/18/2013
1/11/2013
1/4/2013
12/31/2012
12/28/2012
12/21/2012
12/14/2012
12/7/2012
11/30/2012
11/23/2012
11/16/2012
11/9/2012
11/2/2012
10/26/2012
10/19/2012
10/12/2012
10/5/2012
9/28/2012
9/21/2012
9/14/2012
9/8/2012
8/31/2012
8/24/2012
8/17/2012
8/10/2012
8/3/2012
7/27/2012
7/20/2012
7/13/2012
7/6/2012

73.6
68.45
70.7
72.45
69.5
59.9
66.75
65.25
61.75
56.4
55.45
53.3
53.25
49.5
51.3
57.6
60.2
59
63.25
63.1
66.6
68.8
66.5
70.5
72.05
75.5
73.95
73.15
69.15
65.8
66.25
66.45
61.2
62.7
64.3
65.65
65.9
67.9
67.9
68.8
63.95
63.3
60.8
62.7
61.15
62.9
64.55
61.4
58.5
56.1
65.9
67.25
71.65

4510.9
4420.15
4525.95
4621.1
4681.45
4685.6
4847.1
4779.75
4659.1
4591.65
4526.8
4352.75
4366.65
4438.35
4404.5
4598.2
4660.65
4499.75
4621.8
4647.25
4682.55
4775.9
4816.45
4844.05
4778.15
4844
4743.45
4738.3
4686.9
4698.8
4724.25
4675.25
4474.15
4451.1
4508.8
4510.25
4480.3
4509.45
4506.15
4547.9
4504.35
4456.15
4348.8
4210.9
4129.9
4226
4223.7
4186.95
4129.05
4028.25
4134.75
4156.75
4224.15

0.0081521739
0.0752373996
-0.031824611
-0.0241545894
0.0424460432
0.1602671119
-0.1026217228
0.0229885057
0.0566801619
0.094858156
0.0171325518
0.0403377111
0.0009389671
0.0757575758
-0.0350877193
-0.109375
-0.0431893688
0.0203389831
-0.0671936759
0.0023771791
-0.0525525526
-0.0319767442
0.0345864662
-0.0567375887
-0.0215128383
-0.0456953642
0.0209601082
0.010936432
0.0578452639
0.0509118541
-0.0067924528
-0.0030097818
0.0857843137
-0.023923445
-0.0248833593
-0.0205635948
-0.0037936267
-0.029455081
0
-0.0130813953
0.0758405004
0.0102685624
0.0411184211
-0.0303030303
0.0253475061
-0.0278219396
-0.0255615802
0.0513029316
0.0495726496
0.0427807487
-0.1487101669
-0.0200743494
-0.0614096301

0.0055199628
0.0205309775
-0.0233763077
-0.0205903356
-0.012891305
-0.0008856923
-0.0333188917
0.0140906951
0.0258955592
0.0146897085
0.0143257931
0.0399862156
-0.0031832183
-0.0161546521
0.0076853218
-0.0421251794
-0.0133994185
0.0357575421
-0.0264074603
-0.005476357
-0.0075386275
-0.0195460541
-0.0084190638
-0.0056977116
0.0137919488
-0.0135941371
0.0211976515
0.0010868877
0.0109667371
-0.0025325615
-0.0053870985
0.010480723
0.0449470849
0.0051784952
-0.0127971966
-0.0003214899
0.0066848202
-0.006464203
0.0007323325
-0.0091800611
0.0096684316
0.010816512
0.0246849706
0.0327483436
0.0196130657
-0.0227401798
0.0005445463
0.0087772722
0.014022596
0.0250232731
-0.0257573009
-0.0052925964
-0.0159558728

6/29/2012
6/22/2012
6/15/2012
6/8/2012
6/1/2012
5/25/2012
5/18/2012
5/11/2012
5/4/2012
4/28/2012
4/20/2012
4/13/2012
4/4/2012

68.55
66.25
64.45
65.6
62.85
64.9
65.35
67.4
69.8
73.5
81.4
74.9
74.5

4170.65
4063.75
4047.45
4010.95
3851.95
3910.6
3889.05
3928.25
4050.85
4147.1
4226.35
4169.55
4262.2

0.0452224654
0.0347169811
0.0279286268
-0.0175304878
0.0437549722
-0.031587057
-0.0068859985
-0.0304154303
-0.0343839542
-0.0503401361
-0.0970515971
0.0867823765
0.0053691275

0.0128277367
0.0263057521
0.004027227
0.0091000885
0.0412777944
-0.0149976986
0.005541199
-0.0099789983
-0.030265253
-0.0232089894
-0.0187514049
0.0136225732
-0.0217376003

beta
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
f(x) = 1.622235543x + 0.000048489
0.05
0
-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

-0.05 0

0.02

0.04

-0.1
-0.15
-0.2

Beta
Beta
Beta
Beta

of
of
of
of

2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2012-2015

1.801
1.6259
1.541
1.622236

Beta = Covariance(expected return on stock, expected return on market) /


Beta(from formula)
1.62223554
Beta(from slope of the graph)
1.622236
Risk free rate(Govt. Bond Security of 10yr)
7.59%
Market Risk Premium(given)
10%
Expected return of the stock
0.23812355
Expected return of the stock(in %)
23.81%

Cost Of Debt
Year
Long Term Debt (in millions)
Interest (in millions)
Risk Premium (for top category)
Risk free rate
tax rate
D/E (debt/equity)
D/D+E
E/D+E
(interest/Long Term Debt)

4,843.80
582.6
3%
7.59%
30%
0.26
0.2063492
0.7936508
12.027747

Cost of Debt
(interest/Long Term Debt)*(1-T)

8.4194228

0.06

Cost of Debt (in %age)


((Risk free rate+risk premium)*(1-tax rate))
Expected return of the stock(in %)

7.413
23.81

WACC in %age (KeWe+KdWd)

20.6

11-Mar
1,563.90
-194.7
1,758.60
379.7
15,800.30
11,917.60
2,114.30

PBIT
Tax+
PBIT(1-T)
Depreciation
Total Current Asset
Total Current Liability
Net Working Capital
Change in Working Capital
Free Cash Flow
((EBIT(1-T)+Depreciation-Change in NWC)
Annual Growth Rate in Free cash flow (in %age)
Average Growth Rate in Free Cash Flow (in %age)
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
Given
Increase in Free
Cash Flow,
taking avg growth rate

5th year onwards


to Perpetuity at
4% growth rate

12-Mar
14-Mar
15-Mar
16-Mar
17-Mar
18-Mar

19-Mar
20-Mar
21-Mar
..
Perpetuity

Value of Equity =
PV of Cash Flow(firm Value) - Debt(Long Term Debt)
Value of Equity (in Millions)
Value of Equity (in Crores)
Outstanding shares
Outstanding shares (in crores)
Value Per Share =
Value of Equity/no. of outstanding shares
Value per share

2,213.12
221.31163
122576878
12.257688

18

Year
Price Earning (P/E)
Average P/E

Earning Per Share (Rs)


Growth Rate in EPS
Average EPS in %age
EPS (annualised) (Unit Curr) (2016)
Expected Price of the share (2016)
OVER Priced Value

Mar 11
6.16
11.7925
11.74
43.925841
9.0144
106
88

beta
Linear (beta)

0.04

0.06

0.08

12-Mar
1,843.90
183.5
1,660.40
484.3
13,840.90
12,023.00
352.40
-1,761.90
3,906.60

14-Mar
3,830.70
275.1
3,555.60
832.2
15,191.80
11,649.50
1,202.30
849.90

15-Mar
1,253.60
-60.46
1,314.06
660.6
14,433.30
10,710.00
1,828.40
626.10

3,537.90
1,348.56
-9.4378743665 -61.8824727
-0.3
Present Value Time Line

3,906.60
3,537.90
1,348.56
944
661
463

943.992
547.9223881
318.0312369

Present Value
from
5th year to
perpetuity
324 on 20-mar
184.5952453
227
107.1448356
236
1420 111.430629
..
Perpetuity
Total PV @ 2015

2213.1163347

0
1
2

3
4

Mar 12

Mar 14
11.33
5.84
-0.5025553663

Mar 15
8.54

21.14

20.53
6.26
2.5154109589 -0.69508037

Eicher Motors Ltd


Date

Close

'CNX500 Expected
Return
on Stock

Expected
Return
on Market

-Unit Cu
27-Mar-15
20-Mar-15
13-Mar-15
5-Mar-15
28-Feb-15
20-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
6-Feb-15
30-Jan-15
23-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
9-Jan-15
2-Jan-15
31-Dec-14
26-Dec-14
19-Dec-14
12-Dec-14
5-Dec-14
28-Nov-14
21-Nov-14
14-Nov-14
7-Nov-14
31-Oct-14
23-Oct-14
17-Oct-14
10-Oct-14
1-Oct-14
26-Sep-14
19-Sep-14
12-Sep-14
5-Sep-14
28-Aug-14
22-Aug-14
14-Aug-14
8-Aug-14
1-Aug-14
25-Jul-14
18-Jul-14

15,490.75
16,017.50
15,912.75
16,001.10
16,255.55
16,362.10
16,267.40
15,587.75
16,275.90
15,145.95
15,349.70
14,738.70
15,081.95
15,075.00
15,124.30
14,621.10
14,036.80
15,213.50
14,518.70
14,512.75
13,992.90
12,675.90
12,772.75
11,890.55
11,334.35
11,270.35
11,801.65
11,356.75
11,634.80
12,023.80
10,829.05
9,755.95
10,014.00
10,024.90
8,477.50
8,408.00
8,586.65
8,565.05

6846.6
7028.2 -0.032885906 -0.0258387638
7099.9 0.0065827717 -0.0100987338
7303.35 -0.0055214954 -0.0278570793
7239.45 -0.0156531154 0.0088266374
7209.4 -0.0065120003 0.0041681693
7176.2 0.0058214589 0.0046264039
7029.45 0.0436015461 0.0208764555
7166.7 -0.042280304 -0.0191510737
7170.25 0.0746041021 -0.0004951013
6961.45 -0.0132738751 0.0299937513
6783 0.0414554879 0.0263084181
6866.45 -0.0227589934 -0.0121532961
6773.65 0.0004610282 0.0137001469
6674.8 -0.003259655 0.0148094325
6670.15 0.0344160152 0.0006971357
6680.55 0.0416262966 -0.0015567581
6937.55 -0.0773457784 -0.0370447781
6918.05 0.0478555243 0.0028187134
6847.3 0.0004099843 0.0103325398
6785.75 0.0371509837 0.0090704786
6720.95 0.1038979481 0.0096414941
6685.75 -0.0075825488 0.0052649291
6463.25 0.074193372 0.0344254052
6255.15 0.0490720685 0.0332685867
6330.35 0.0056786169 -0.01187928
6398.05 -0.0450191287 -0.010581349
6396.55
0.03917494 0.0002345014
6561.65 -0.0238981332 -0.0251613542
6572.7 -0.0323525009 -0.0016811965
6502.3 0.1103282375 0.0108269382
6360.75 0.1099944137 0.0222536651
6352.35 -0.0257689235 0.0013223453
6215.65 -0.0010872926 0.0219928728
6072.65 0.1825302271 0.0235482038
6111.7 0.0082659372 -0.0063893843
6230.45 -0.0208055528 -0.0190596185
6184.55 0.0025218767 0.0074217203

11-Jul-14

8,260.85

5991.7 0.0368242977 0.0321861909

4-Jul-14
27-Jun-14
20-Jun-14
13-Jun-14
6-Jun-14
30-May-14
23-May-14

8,637.85
7,728.90
7,215.75
7,339.35
7,192.85
6,675.45
7,442.85

6297.6 -0.04364512 -0.04857406


6082.1 0.1176040575 0.035431841
6038.6 0.0711152687 0.0072036565
6057.5 -0.0168407284 -0.0031200991
6129.95 0.0203674482 -0.0118190197
5802.85 0.0775078834 0.0563688532
5923.65 -0.1031056652 -0.0203928321

f(x) = 1.0769
-0.06

-0.04

16-May-14
9-May-14
2-May-14
25-Apr-14
17-Apr-14
11-Apr-14
4-Apr-14
28-Mar-14
22-Mar-14

6,346.75
6,478.60
6,248.40
6,107.85
5,870.85
6,105.50
6,049.75
5,832.05
5,718.05

5656 0.1727025643 0.0473214286


5375.9 -0.0203516192 0.0521029037
5260.95 0.0368414314 0.0218496659
5328.6 0.0230113706 -0.0126956424
5310.75 0.0403689415 0.0033611072
5317.7 -0.0384325608 -0.001306956
5234.5 0.0092152568 0.0158945458
5202.15 0.0373282122 0.0062185827
5037.5 0.0199368666 0.0326848635

14-Mar-14
7-Mar-14
28-Feb-14
21-Feb-14
14-Feb-14
7-Feb-14
31-Jan-14
24-Jan-14
17-Jan-14
10-Jan-14
3-Jan-14
31-Dec-13
27-Dec-13
20-Dec-13

5,571.35
5,434.10
5,140.30
4,884.00
4,849.50
4,426.00
4,646.10
4,921.80
4,945.75
5,009.05
4,968.95
4,975.85
4,992.60
5,073.50

5011.55 0.0263311406 0.0051780387


5033.85 0.0252571723 -0.0044300088
4849.5 0.0571561971 0.0380142283
4762.75 0.0524774775 0.018214267
4677.8 0.0071141355 0.0181602463
4701.7 0.0956845911 -0.0050832678
4709.15 -0.0473730656 -0.0015820265
4836.7 -0.0560160917 -0.0263712862
4841.3 -0.0048425416 -0.000950158
4813.95 -0.0126371268 0.0056814051
4850.65 0.0080701154 -0.0075659963
4914.85 -0.0013866978 -0.0130624536
4914.7 -0.0033549653 3.05207E-005
4861.65 -0.0159455997 0.0109119332

13-Dec-13
6-Dec-13
29-Nov-13
22-Nov-13
14-Nov-13
8-Nov-13
1-Nov-13
25-Oct-13
18-Oct-13
11-Oct-13

4,915.25
4,828.75
4,687.30
4,202.00
4,201.80
4,135.95
3,982.80
3,932.45
3,876.80
3,952.45

4756.05 0.0321957174 0.022203299


4830.8 0.0179135387 -0.0154736276
4770.1 0.0301772876 0.0127251001
4632.45 0.1154926226 0.029714298
4670.1 4.75986E-005 -0.0080619259
4725.9 0.0159213724 -0.0118072748
4823 0.0384528472 -0.0201326975
4693.4 0.0128037229 0.0276132441
4706.9 0.0143546224 -0.0028681298
4651.8 -0.0191400271 0.0118448773

4-Oct-13
27-Sep-13
20-Sep-13
13-Sep-13
6-Sep-13
30-Aug-13
23-Aug-13
16-Aug-13
8-Aug-13
2-Aug-13
26-Jul-13
19-Jul-13

3,687.00
3,554.35
3,474.50
3,613.45
3,192.15
3,189.80
3,199.60
3,167.70
3,319.00
3,497.20
3,701.70
3,839.65

4516.15 0.0719962029 0.0300366463


4455.95 0.0373204665 0.0135100259
4560.1 0.022981724 -0.0228394114
4450.45 -0.0384535555 0.024637958
4319.4 0.1319800135 0.030339862
4175.85 0.0007367233 0.0343762348
4183.65 -0.0030628829 -0.0018644007
4224.3 0.0100703981 -0.0096228961
4250.35 -0.0455860199 -0.006128907
4314.95 -0.0509550498 -0.0149712048
4507.25 -0.0552448875 -0.0426645959
4632.75 -0.0359277538 -0.0270897415

12-Jul-13
5-Jul-13
28-Jun-13
21-Jun-13
14-Jun-13
7-Jun-13
31-May-13
24-May-13
17-May-13
11-May-13
3-May-13
26-Apr-13
18-Apr-13
12-Apr-13
5-Apr-13
28-Mar-13
22-Mar-13
15-Mar-13
8-Mar-13
1-Mar-13
22-Feb-13
15-Feb-13
8-Feb-13
1-Feb-13
25-Jan-13
18-Jan-13
11-Jan-13
4-Jan-13
31-Dec-12
28-Dec-12
21-Dec-12
14-Dec-12
7-Dec-12
30-Nov-12
23-Nov-12
16-Nov-12
9-Nov-12
2-Nov-12
26-Oct-12
19-Oct-12
12-Oct-12
5-Oct-12
28-Sep-12
21-Sep-12
14-Sep-12
8-Sep-12
31-Aug-12
24-Aug-12
17-Aug-12
10-Aug-12
3-Aug-12
27-Jul-12
20-Jul-12

3,783.45
3,614.60
3,276.90
3,561.65
3,514.35
3,550.35
3,701.60
3,582.45
3,449.25
3,065.10
3,132.55
2,894.10
2,686.95
2,756.25
2,664.30
2,562.20
2,678.85
2,790.45
2,793.95
2,772.80
2,795.90
2,659.30
2,740.15
2,841.20
2,653.85
2,712.25
2,810.80
2,822.70
2,906.60
2,802.55
2,687.70
2,706.70
2,690.15
2,738.25
2,427.00
2,404.85
2,503.25
2,391.35
2,365.70
2,302.45
2,225.10
2,302.70
2,311.20
2,208.85
2,269.60
2,079.95
2,144.80
2,183.20
2,225.25
2,068.55
1,993.55
1,950.35
1,951.60

4630.95 0.0148541675 0.0003886891


4535.8 0.0467133293 0.0209775563
4510.9 0.1030547163 0.0055199628
4420.15 -0.0799489001 0.0205309775
4525.95 0.0134591034 -0.0233763077
4621.1 -0.0101398454 -0.0205903356
4681.45 -0.0408607089 -0.012891305
4685.6 0.0332593616 -0.0008856923
4847.1 0.0386170907 -0.0333188917
4779.75 0.1253303318 0.0140906951
4659.1 -0.0215319787 0.0258955592
4591.65 0.0823917626 0.0146897085
4526.8 0.0770948473 0.0143257931
4352.75 -0.0251428571 0.0399862156
4366.65 0.0345118793 -0.0031832183
4438.35 0.0398485676 -0.0161546521
4404.5 -0.0435448047 0.0076853218
4598.2 -0.0399935494 -0.0421251794
4660.65 -0.0012527067 -0.0133994185
4499.75 0.0076276688 0.0357575421
4621.8 -0.0082620981 -0.0264074603
4647.25 0.0513669011 -0.005476357
4682.55 -0.029505684 -0.0075386275
4775.9 -0.035565958 -0.0195460541
4816.45 0.0705955499 -0.0084190638
4844.05 -0.0215319384 -0.0056977116
4778.15 -0.0350611925 0.0137919488
4844 -0.0042158217 -0.0135941371
4743.45 -0.0288653409 0.0211976515
4738.3 0.0371269023 0.0010868877
4686.9 0.0427317037 0.0109667371
4698.8 -0.007019618 -0.0025325615
4724.25 0.0061520733 -0.0053870985
4675.25 -0.0175659637 0.010480723
4474.15 0.1282447466 0.0449470849
4451.1 0.0092105537 0.0051784952
4508.8 -0.0393088984 -0.0127971966
4510.25 0.0467936521 -0.0003214899
4480.3 0.0108424568 0.0066848202
4509.45 0.0274707377 -0.006464203
4506.15 0.0347624826 0.0007323325
4547.9 -0.0336995701 -0.0091800611
4504.35 -0.0036777432 0.0096684316
4456.15 0.0463363289 0.010816512
4348.8 -0.0267668312 0.0246849706
4210.9 0.0911800764 0.0327483436
4129.9 -0.0302359194 0.0196130657
4226 -0.0175888604 -0.0227401798
4223.7 -0.0188967532 0.0005445463
4186.95 0.0757535472 0.0087772722
4129.05 0.0376213288 0.014022596
4028.25 0.0221498705 0.0250232731
4134.75 -0.0006405001 -0.0257573009

13-Jul-12
6-Jul-12
29-Jun-12
22-Jun-12
15-Jun-12
8-Jun-12
1-Jun-12
25-May-12
18-May-12
11-May-12
4-May-12
28-Apr-12
20-Apr-12
13-Apr-12
4-Apr-12

1,936.30
2,021.15
1,999.90
2,000.70
2,056.45
2,172.65
2,251.70
2,218.55
2,107.45
2,168.10
2,162.10
2,274.00
2,299.60
2,179.65
2,192.45

4156.75 0.0079016681 -0.0052925964


4224.15 -0.0419810504 -0.0159558728
4170.65 0.0106255313 0.0128277367
4063.75 -0.00039986 0.0263057521
4047.45 -0.0271098252 0.004027227
4010.95 -0.0534830737 0.0091000885
3851.95 -0.0351068082 0.0412777944
3910.6 0.014942192 -0.0149976986
3889.05 0.0527177394 0.005541199
3928.25 -0.0279738019 -0.0099789983
4050.85 0.0027750798 -0.030265253
4147.1 -0.0492084433 -0.0232089894
4226.35 -0.0111323708 -0.0187514049
4169.55 0.0550317712 0.0136225732
4262.2 -0.0058382175 -0.0217376003

BETA
0.2
0.15
0.1
f(x) = 1.0769007773x + 0.0101229876

0.05
0

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

-0.05

0.02

-0.1
-0.15

Beta
Beta
Beta
Beta

of
of
of
of

0.6840492374
0.7936589432
1.5524543847
1.0769

2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2012-2015

Beta(from formula)
Beta(from slope of the graph)
Risk free rate(Govt. Bond Security of 10yr)
Market Risk Premium(given)
Expected return of the stock
Expected return of the stock(in %)

Year
Long Term Debt (in millions)
Interest (in millions)
Risk Premium (for top category)
Risk free rate
tax rate
D/E (debt/equity)
D/D+E
E/D+E
(interest/Long Term Debt)
Cost of Debt
(interest/Long Term Debt)*(1-T)

1.0769007773
1.0769
7.59%
10%
0.18359
18.36%

Cost Of Debt
Mar 15 (12)
0.00
0.00
1%
7.59%
30%
0.22
0
1
0.0
0.0

Cost of Debt (in %age)


((Risk free rate+risk premium)*(1-tax
rate))
Expected return of the stock(in %)
WACC in %age (KeWe+KdWd)

6.013
18.36
18.36

11-Mar
890.60
111.70
778.90
107.90
-646.5

PBIT
Tax+
PBIT(1-T)
Depreciation
Net Working Capital
Change in Working Capital
Free Cash Flow
((EBIT(1-T)+Depreciation-Change in
NWC)
Annual Growth Rate in Free cash flow (in %age)
Average Growth Rate in Free Cash Flow (in %age)

Free Cash Flow (in millions)


Given
12-Mar
13-Mar
14-Mar
15-Mar
Increase in Free
16-Mar
Cash Flow,
17-Mar
taking avg growth rate
18-Mar
19-Mar

20-Mar
21-Mar
..
Perpetuity

5th year onwards


to Perpetuity at
4% growth rate

VALUE OF EQUITY =
PV of Cash Flow(firm Value) Debt(Long Term Debt)
Value of Equity (in Millions)
Value of Equity (in Crores)
Outstanding shares
Outstanding shares (in crores)

6,165,241.19
616524.118805925
27,154,083
2.7154083

Value Per Share =


Value of Equity/no. of outstanding
shares
Year
Price Earning (P/E)
Average P/E

227047

Mar 11
32.08
53.09

EPS (annualised) (Unit Curr)


Average EPS
Expected EPS
EXPECTED PRICE OF THE SHARE(2016)
UNDER PRICED VALUE

46
0.508
300.5
15952
211095

BETA

BETA
Linear (BETA)
0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

12-Mar
1,438.50
172.80
1,265.70
130.20
-802.3
-155.8
1,551.70

13-Mar
1,740.60
290.40
1,450.20
171.50
-1983.6
-1181.3
2,803.00

14-Mar
3,634.20
845.30
2,788.90
304.10
-3441.8
-1458.2
4,551.20

80.640587742

15-Mar
7,997.00
2,391.10
5,605.90
501.60
-5148.4
-1706.6
7,814.10

62.3688904745 71.6931798
71.6

Present Value
1,551.70
2,803.00
4,551.20
7,814.10
21223
57642
156555
425205 Present
Value from
5th year to
perpetuity
on 20-mar
1154856
1201050

Time Line

21223
50670
120973
288821

0
1
2
3

8363859

689556
4993998

Total PV @ 20

6165241

Mar 12
Mar 13
Mar 14
54.96
49.52

75.8

52.82
100.5
0.14826087 0.9026883756

199.25
0.9825870647

08

BETA
Linear (BETA)