UNIVERSITY OF DAR ES SALAAM

Registration No.____________________
Name: ___________________________
Programme: _______________________

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL AND INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING
IE 443: INDUSTRIAL SAFETY AND MAINTENANCE
TEST 1 FOR THE 1st SEMESTER FOR ACADEMIC YEAR 2015/2016
YEAR OF STUDY: 4

MARKING SCHEME
Instructions:
1. This examination paper consists of . Printed pages with questions divided into
two sections Section A (50 marks) and Section B (50 marks)
2. Time Allotted: 90 Minutes
3. Answer all questions in Section A and ANY TWO questions from Section B
4. Do not remove the staples, all work must be done within this question paper in the
space provided, you can also use the back of the page
5. Unauthorized materials and gadgets such as: All types of mobile phones and
accessories as well as other relevant unauthorized materials Are Not Allowed in the
Examination Venues

SECTION A: ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS (50 MARKS)

Question 1:
a)

Describe the following Root Cause Analysis Methods - Change Analysis, Barrier Analysis,
Management Oversight and Risk Tree (MORT) Analysis, and Human Performance Evaluation
(8 marks)

Answer:
Change Analysis - used when the problem is obscure. It is a systematic process that
is generally used for a single occurrence and focuses on elements that have changed
(2 marks)
Barrier Analysis - is a systematic process that can be used to identify physical,
administrative, and procedural barriers or controls that should have prevented the
occurrence (2 marks)
Management Oversight and Risk Tree (MORT) Analysis. MORT and Mini-MORT
are used to identify inadequacies in barriers/controls, specific barrier and support
functions, and management functions. It identifies specific factors relating to an
occurrence and identifies the management factors that permitted these factors to
exist (2 marks)
Human Performance Evaluation - identifies those factors that influence task
performance. The focus of this analysis method is on operability, work environment,
and management factors (2 marks)
b)

What do you understand by the terms Physics of Failure (PoF) and Component derating in
Reliability Analysis (4 marks)

Answer
i.
Physics of Failure (PoF) is a design technique that requires the understanding of the
physical processes of stress, strength and failure at a very detailed level. Then the material
or component can be re-designed to reduce the probability of failure once their physics are
known (2 marks)
ii.
Component derating is a common design technique in which the designer selects
components whose tolerance significantly exceeds the expected stress (e.g. in electrical
systems when one uses a heavier gauge wire that exceeds the normal specification for the
expected electrical current is using component derating) (2 marks)

c)

Compare the term Operational availability and Reliability (6 marks)

Answer
By definition operational availability is the probability that a piece of equipment, when used in
actual operational environment under specified conditions will operate satisfactorily when
called upon. Similarly, reliability is defined as the probability that a system or facility will
function satisfactorily within specified limits for at least a given period of time under certain
operating conditions (2 marks)
The two definitions are both concerned with:
Probability (1 mark)
Specified operating condition (1 mark)
Satisfactory performance (1 mark)

The only difference is that reliability has some limitation on the operating time interval (1 mark)
What do you understand by the term instantaneous failure rate (2 marks)

d)

Answer:
The instantaneous failure rate of equipment is the probability that the equipment will fail in the
next time interval given that it is working at the start of the interval. (2 marks)
e)

Define the following maintenance terms: Inherent Availability, Achieved Availability,

Operational availability (6 marks)

Answer
i.

ii.

iii.

f)

Inherent availability is the probability that a system or equipment, when used under stated
conditions in an ideal support environment (i.e., readily available tools, spares,
maintenance personnel, etc.), will operate satisfactorily at any point in time as required. It
excludes preventive or scheduled maintenance actions, logistics delay time, and
administrative delay time (2 mark)
Achieved availability is the probability that a system or equipment, when used under stated
conditions in an ideal support environment (i.e., readily available tools, spares, personnel,
etc.), will operate satisfactorily at any point in time. This definition is similar to the
definition for Inherent Availability except that preventive (i.e., scheduled) maintenance is
included. It excludes logistics delay time and administrative delay time (2 mark)
Operational availability is defined here as the probability that a piece of equipment, when used
in actual operational environment under specified conditions (production, etc.) will operate
(i.e. do its job) satisfactorily when called upon. (2 mark).
Discuss the error of performance and error of intent as the main causes of failure (5
marks)

Answer
Error of Performance
Errors of performance are consequences of lack of sufficient care or of negligence (1
mark)
Negligence can make someone to misread drawings, to give inadequate specifications, or to
produce defective manufacturing and poor workmanship (1 mark)

Error of Intent
Errors of intent to the large extent involve greed e.g. trying to do some savings by
minimising the application of a certain material in the component without analysing the
consequences (1 mark)
Greed leads to actions usually carried out with a conscious or unconscious denial of full
knowledge of the potential consequences (1 mark)

The one doing this mischief convinces her/himself that his/her actions will not have serious
impacts but mostly end up in catastrophic consequences (1 mark)
g)
Mention 4 disadvantages of Preventive Maintenance (4 marks)
Answer
Disadvantages of Preventive Maintenance are:
Uncertainty in determination of intervals between maintenance work (1 mark)
Over-maintenance problems sometimes occur (1 mark)
Too costly if the frequency of maintenance is high (1 mark)
Some plants fail due to maintenance-induced defects (1 mark)
h)

Describe the 4 elements that defines a reliability of a system (8 marks)

Answer
There are four important elements that describe reliability of a given system: probability, satisfactory
performance, minimum time, and operating conditions specifications:
Probability indicates that reliability says something about the ratio of actual operating time to
the specified period of operation (2 marks)
Satisfactory performance refers to the meeting of certain criteria considered as acceptable
performance by management (2 marks)
The element of time limits the utilisation of the component to the specified period of time (2
marks)
Specified operating conditions refers to the environmental standards such as temperature and
humidity standards required for proper operation of the system (2 marks)
i) What do you understand by the term maintenance strategy? (2 marks)
Answer
A rule that fixes the time of doing a maintenance action, the type of the maintenance action,
and a specific part of a machine to be maintained (2 marks)
OR

A bulk of possible maintenance actions, from a various possible conditions of a piece of

equipment to be maintained and for a given period of time (2 marks)

j) What are the best indicators of Maintainability? (5 marks)

Answer
The best indicators of maintainability are:
MTTR (mean time to repair); (1 mark)
Personnel labour hours; (1 mark)
Maintenance frequencies; (1 mark)
Maintenance costs; and (1 mark)
Volume of related logistic support (1 mark).

SECTION B: ANSWER ANY 2 QUESTIONS FROM THIS SECTION

Question 2: Quantitative Methods (25 marks)
All calculations must be in two decimal places
i)

What do you understand by the term maximum active corrective maintenance time (Mmax)?
(2 marks)

Answer:
Mmax can be defined as that value of maintenance downtime below which a specified percent of all
maintenance actions can be expected to be completed. (2 marks)
ii)

Calculate Mmax at 95% confidence level from the data shown on table 1 and table 2 (5
marks)

Answer:

M max anti log log MCt i Z log MCti

At 95% confidence level Z = 1.65

** log MCti

Tdown
240
180
240
360

log MCti
N
log MCti 2 i 1 N
i 1
N 1

LDT
80
52
65
120

ADT
90
62
55
90

MCti
70
66
120
150
406

Log (MCti) (Log(MCti)2

1.85
3.40
1.82
3.31
2.08
4.32
2.18
4.74
15.77
7.93
(2 marks)

log MCti

log Mct
i

i 1

7.932
15.77
4
log MCti
3
0.13

7.93
1.98
4

(1 marks)

(1 marks)

 M max ant log1.98 1.65 * 0.13

139.48 Minutes
iii)

(1 mark )

Use the data depicted on table 1 and intellectual assumption to calculate the following data if
given that the cycle time was 24,000 minutes:
a) Total Availability A;
(4 marks)
b) Inherent Availability A1;
(5 marks)
c) Achieved availability Aa;
(4 marks)
d) Operational Availability Ao.
(5 marks)

Table 1: Downtime of some selected maintenance activities. Activities number 3, 7, 9 and 14 are
break down maintenance whereas the rest of activities are preventive maintenance.
Maintenance Activity No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14
Td
3
4
4
3
5
6
3
4
4
5
5
8
5
6
[Hours]
LDT
75 120 80 45 100 160 52 44 65 90 155 200 130 120
[Min.]
ADT
65 45 90 35 80 140 62 26 55 90 145 160 59 90
[Min.]
Td is the total downtime that includes both the LDT and ADT.
Table 2: Risks/Upper limit variations
Risk
Confidence
5%
95%
10%
90%
15%
85%
20%
80%

Z
1.65
1.28
1.04
0.84

Upper limit [min.]

65.72
64.89
64.35
63.89

Answer:
i)
Total Availability is given by the following relationship
A = 1- Td/Ttotal
(1 mark)
Total downtime Td = 67 hours
(1 mark)
Total available time = Cycle time = 400 hours
(1 mark)
Therefore A = 1 67/400 =0.832
(1 mark)

ii) Inherent Availability Ai is given by

MTBF
Ai
MTBF MCt

From the information given there are 4 failures in a cycle time of 400 hours

 Failure rate
MTBF

4
400

(1 mark)

400x60
6,000 min
4

(1 mark)

MCt excludesLDT and ADT

MCt3 = 240 (80+90)
MCt7 = 180 (52+62)
MCt9 = 240 (65+55)
MCt14 = 360 (120+90)

= 70
= 66
= 120
= 150

(1 mark)

MCt

Ai

MCt
i 1

70 66 120 150
101.50
4

6000
0.98
6000 101.50

(1 mark)

(1 mark)

iii) Achieved Availability Aa is given by:

MTBM
MTBM M
Where MTBM Mean Time Between Ma int enance.
Aa

includes both preventive and

corrective ma int enance actions

From the information given there are 14 maintenance actions within the 400 hours
MTBM

400x60
1714.29 min
14

(1 mark)

M average time to perform scheduled and unscheduled ma int enance actions .

It excludes ADT and LTD

MCti have already been calculated

MPt1 = 180 (75+65)
MPt2 = 240 (120+45)
MPt4 = 180 (45+35)
MPt5 = 300 (100+80)

= 40
= 75
= 100
= 120

MPt6 = 360 (160+140)

MPt8 = 240 (44+26)
MPt10 =300 (90+90)
MPt11 = 300 (155+145)
MPt12 = 480 (200+160)
MPt13 = 300 (130+59)

Aa

= 60
= 170
= 120
= 00
= 120
= 111

(1 mark)

40 75 70 100 120 60 66 170 120 120 00 120 111 150

94.42 min
14
(1 mark)

1714.29
0.95
1714.29 94.42

(1 mark)

iv) Operational Availability Ao is given by:

Ao

MTTF
MTTF MTTR MWT

(1 mark)

MTTF MTBF
6,000 min

(1 mark)

MTTR MCt
101.50 min

(1 mark)

MWT Mean Waiting Time

Total LDT and ADT

14 Actions

2578
189.50 min
14
6000
Ao
6000 101.5 189.50

(1 mark)

(1 mark)

= 0.95
(1 mark)

Question 3: Quantitative Models in Maintenance (25 marks)

A machine whose current age is 32 years is considered as an old machine, but because of its good
maintenance the machine is As Good as New. During the purchase of the machine it was envisage
that the machine will operate for 10 periods (each period has 4 years), but due to increased number
of its customers and increased demand, the company wants to replace the machine now with a
better machine, which produces more component per hour. The present machine was bought at Tshs

35,000,000/= and it is depreciated by Decline Balance Method (DB Method) of 10% per year (i.e.
deduction of 10% of its remaining value each year). The maintenance cost of the current machine at
1st period was Tshs 200,000/= per period (in 4 yrs), and it has been observed that the maintenance
costs increases by Tshs 100,000/= per period. A new machine can be acquired at a cost that is 5
times the purchase of the current machine, and it is planned that the new machine will also be
depreciated using DB Method of 10 %. The maintenance costs of the new machine is envisaged to
be Tshs 650,000/= in the first period and it will increase by Tshs 150,000/= each period. Calculate
the total discounted cost using appropriate model using the envisage period of the current machine
as the reference point and if the interested rate is 110% of the inflation rate. (N.B.: Currently the
inflation rate if 7%, Salvage value at a particular period is equivalent to the values of the facility at
that period) (25 marks)
Answer:

Number of operating periods during which the

The equipment will be required
Operational period in which replacement is to
take place = 32yrs 4
Salvage value of the present equipment at 8th period
Simply 35,000,000 x (0.9)32

10 (1 mark)

8 (2 mark)

1,201,789 (2 marks)

Long way of Calculation of the Salvage Value of the Current equipment (not
necessary)
Age
Value of
Depreciation
Remaining Value
(Year)
Machine
Amount
at the End of
Period
35,000,000
3,500,000
31,500,000
1
31,500,000
3,150,000
28,350,000
2
28,350,000
2,835,000
25,515,000
3
25,515,000
2,551,500
22,963,500
4
22,963,500
2,296,350
20,667,150
5
20,667,150
2,066,715
18,600,435
6
18,600,435
1,860,044
16,740,392
7
16,740,392
1,674,039
15,066,352
8
15,066,352
1,506,635
13,559,717
9
13,559,717
1,355,972
12,203,745
10
12,203,745
1,220,375
10,983,371
11
10,983,371
1,098,337
9,885,034
12
9,885,034
988,503
8,896,530
13
8,896,530
889,653
8,006,877
14
8,006,877
800,688
7,206,190
15
7,206,190
720,619
6,485,571
16
6,485,571
648,557
5,837,014
17
5,837,014
583,701
5,253,312
18
5,253,312
525,331
4,727,981
19
4,727,981
472,798
4,255,183
20
4,255,183
425,518
3,829,665
21
3,829,665
382,966
3,446,698
22
3,446,698
344,670
3,102,028
23

24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

3,102,028
2,791,825
2,512,643
2,261,379
2,035,241
1,831,717
1,648,545
1,483,690
1,335,321

310,203
279,183
251,264
226,138
203,524
183,172
164,854
148,369
133,532

2,791,826
2,512,643
2,261,379
2,035,241
1,831,717
1,648,545
1,483,690
1,335,321
1,201,789

Acquisition costs of technological improved equipment =

(5 x 35,000,000 /= )
Salvage value of the technological improved
equipment at 8th period
simply 175,000,000 x (0.9)8
=
(2 marks)

Tshs 175,000,000/=
(1 mark)

Tshs75,331,762

Long way of calculating the Salvage Value of Technologically improved equipment

(not necessary)
Age
Value of
Depreciation
Remaining Value
(Year)
Machine
Amount
at the End of
Period
1 175,000,000

17,500,000

157,500,000

2 157,500,000

15,750,000

141,750,000

3 141,750,000

14,175,000

127,575,000

4 127,575,000

12,757,500

114,817,500

5 114,817,500

11,481,750

103,335,750

6 103,335,750

10,333,575

93,002,175

7 93,002,175

9,300,218

83,701,958

8 83,701,958

8,370,196

75,331,762

Interest rate

7.7% (2 mark)

The mathematical model for replacement based on technological improvement is given by:
T

n -T

C(T) = C p.i r + ct, j rT + j + Ar T - ( S p ,T r T + S t,n-T r n )

i

i=1

j=1

(2 marks)

The discounting factor r is given by r = 1/(1+i) =1/(1.077) = 0.9285

(2 mark)

Maintenance Cost of the Current Equipment for the eight periods is given by (2 marks)
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Maintenance
200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000
Cost

The discounted costs for operating the current equipment up to the eight period is given by:
=200,000x(0.9285)+300,000x(0.9285)2+400,000x(0.9285)3+500,000x(0.9285)4+600,000x(0.9285)
5
+700,000x(0.9285)6+800,000(0.9285)7+900,000(0.9285)8
= 2,971,841/=
(2 marks)
Maintenance Costs for the Technological Equipment for Period 9 &10 are given by (2 marks)
Period
9
10
Maintenance Cost
650,000
800,000

The discounted costs for operating the technological improved equipment from the ninth period to
the tenth period is given by:
= 650,000x(0.9285)9+800,000x(0.9285)10
= 714,374/50
(1 mark)
The discounted acquisition cost of the technological improved equipment at the eight period is
given by:
= 175,000,000x(0.9285)8
= 96,670,355/=
(1 mark)
The discounted salvage values of the present equipment at the 8th period and of the technological
improved equipment at the 10th period is given by:
= 1,201,789x(0.9285)8 + 75,331,762x(0.9285)10
= 36,539,308/=
(1 mark)
Therefore, the total discounted cost is given by:
= 2,971,841/=+714,374/50+96,670,355/= - 36,539,308/=
= 63,817,262/=

(2 marks)

Question 4: Failure Analysis (25 marks)

a) Explain the kind of failure rate that are analysed using the following distribution functions:
Normal distribution, exponential distribution, Weibull distribution (6 marks)
Answer:
Normal distribution is used to analyse increasing failure rates,
(2 marks)
while exponential distribution is used to analyse constant failure rates.
(2 marks)
Weibull distribution can be used to analyse increasing, decreasing and constant failure rates
(2 marks)
b) What do you understand by the term instantaneous failure rate (2 marks)

Answer:
The instantaneous failure rate of equipment is the probability that the equipment will fail in the next
time interval given that it is working at the start of the interval. (2 marks)
c) Derive mathematically the instantaneous failure rate of a Weibull distribution function (8
marks)
Answer:
The normal distribution function is given by the following relationship:
t
F(t) 1 exp

The density of Weibull distribution function is given by:

dF (t ) t
f (t )

dt

t
exp

(2 marks)

Instantaneous failure rate is given by:

d
F(t)
f(t)
f(t)
dt
Z(t) =
=
=
R(t)
R(t)
1 - F(t) ,

(2 marks)

therefore:

t
t 1
Z (t )
exp

t
/1 [1 exp

(2 marks)
(

Z(t) =

(2 marks)

d) To determine the total failure rate, one has to consider other causes of failure rate. Mention 4
other factors to be considered during the calculation of the total failure rate (4 marks)
Answer:
To determine the total failure rate, aspects to consider would include: (any 4 out of these)
i)
inherent reliability failure rate
ii)
manufacturing defects
iii)
wear-out rate
iv)
dependent failure rate
v)
operator-induced failure rate
vi)
maintenance-induced failure rate
vii)
equipment damage rate
e) Calculate the instantaneous failure rate at 400 minutes for a machine system with the
following Weibull characteristics shape parameter 3.2, datum parameter 250 minutes, scale
parameter 300 (5 marks).
Answer:

Weibull instantaneous failure rate is given by:

(t ) 1
t
Z (t )
exp

Z (t )

t
1 1 exp

t 1

(1 mark)

3.2400 250
Z (t )
3003.2

3.2 1

2.32
(2 marks)

(2 marks)

List of Basic Formula

Formula Name

Minimization of Total Cost

bt e

Btr 0

it

Exponential Distribution Function

Inherent Availability
Maximum Active Corrective
Maintenance
Operational Availability

Standard Deviation for Corrective

Maintenance

Weibul Distribution Function

(A - S n )

i=1

1 - rn

1 e i tr Tr
n -T

C(T) = C p.i r + ct, j rT + j + Ar T - ( S p ,T r T + S t,n-T r n )

i

i=1

Achieved Availability

dt C tr e itr

Technological Replacement model

C (n)
C(n) = 1 n =
1-r
tr

Maximization of Discounted benefit

C r + r

j=1

MTBM
MTBM M
F (t )1 e t
Aa

Ai

MTBF
MTBF MCt

M max anti log log MCt i Z log MCti

Ao

MTTF
MTTF MTTR MWT

log MCti

log MCti
N
log MCti 2 i 1 N
i 1
N 1

t
F(t)1 exp