20.11.

2016

TheRussianPlotagainstEurope

NOVEMBER17,2016

TheRussianPlotagainstEurope
BYALINAPOLYAKOVA

SupporterspasteaposterofMarineLePen,France'sNationalFrontleader,onawallbeforeapoliticalrallyfor
localelectionsinFrejus,FranceMarch18,2014.REUTERS/EricGaillard/FilePhoto

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RussiasinfluencereachesdeepintoWesternEurope.Francehasamajorfarright,Eurosceptic,andopenlyproRussianpartythatreceivesfundingfromthe
Kremlin.InLondon,BrexitprovidesanopportunityforMoscowtogainatoeholdinBritishpolitics.GermanysformerChancellorGerhardSchrderservesas
chairmanoftheRussianGermanpipelineNordStream.ButtheseexampleshardlyscratchthesurfaceofRussiasactiveinvolvementinEuropesthreegreat
powers.
ThereisnosingleformulaforhowRussiaprojectspowerinEurope,butthegoalofitsTrojanHorsestrategyisthesame:tobuildawebofpoliticalleaders,
parties,andcivilsocietyorganizationsthatwilllegitimizeRussiasaimstodestabilizeEuropeanunityandundermineEuropeanvalues.IntheWest,the
RussiangovernmentcannotrelyonalargeandhighlyconcentratedRussianspeakingminorityasitstargetofinfluenceandlacksthesamehistoricalor
culturallinks.Inthiscontext,theKremlinsdestabilizationtacticshavebeensubtler.ThesearetheconclusionsofanewAtlanticCouncilreport,TheKremlins
TrojanHorses.
Thewebofpoliticalnetworksishiddenandnontransparentbydesign,makingitpurposelydifficulttoexpose.Traceablefinanciallinkswouldinevitablymake
Moscowsenterpriselesseffective:whenostensiblyindependentpoliticalfigurescallforcloserrelationswithRussia,theremovalofsanctions,orcriticizethe
EUandNATO,itlegitimizestheKremlinsworldview.Itisfarlesseffective,fromtheKremlinspointofview,tohavesuchstatementscomefromindividualsor
organizationsknowntobeontheKremlinspayroll.
Sincethe2008economiccrisis,whichprovokedmistrustintheWesterneconomicmodel,theKremlinsawanopportunitytostepupitsinfluenceoperationsin
Europe.RussiahasdevelopedwelldocumentedrelationshipswithantiEU,farrightpoliticalpartiesandleaders.Theirinfluencestrategyistailoredtoeach
countrysculturalandhistoricalcontext.
RussiastwomaininroadsintoFrenchpoliticsarethroughbusinessandpolitics.In2014,NationalFrontreceivedaninemillionEurosloanfromtheMoscow
basedFirstCzechRussianBank.In2016,NationalFrontPresidentMarineLePenaskedRussiaforanadditionaltwentysevenmillionEurosloantoprepare
forthe2017presidentialandparliamentarycampaigns.LePenspartysupportedRussiasannexationofCrimea,andsomeanalystsseetheseloansasquid
proquo.Herpartyfacesnolegalconsequencesforreceivinglargepaymentsfromabankownedbyaforeignpower.Yetprivatebusinessescannotmake
politicaldonationstopartiesthesamerulesshouldapplytoforeigngovernmentsandtheirsubsidiaries.

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Frenchauthoritiesshouldactsoon.BoththeNationalFrontandsomeoftheRepublicansaroundformerFrenchPresidentNicolasSarkozy,whowillcontest
the2017presidentialelection,wantwarmerrelationswithRussia.NextyearselectioncouldchangeFrancesrelationshipwithRussia.
InGermany,RussiausesproKremlinnetworkssuchastheGermanRussianForumandthePetersburgDialog,partiesandpopulistmovementsacrossthe
politicalspectrum,andRussianforeignmediatopushitstalkingpoints.DeeplyintertwinedhistoricalconnectionsmaketheKremlinspointofviewmore
palpabletomainstreampoliticiansandbusinessleaders.RussiasattemptstouseitsconnectionswithbusinessleadersorNGOstopushthroughenergyand
businessprojectsshouldbeexposedinthemediaandbyinvestigativegroups.Tothatend,theGermanintelligenceserviceshouldexamineRussiasfunding
ofpoliticalgroups,mediaoutlets,andcivilsocietyorganizations.
Germanyalsofaceselectionsin2017,andRussiaisahotissue.GermanChancellorAngelaMerkelhasmaintainedunityonEUsanctionsonRussiaandled
effortstobringalastingceasefiretoUkraine.Hercompetitors,theSocialDemocrats(SPD),DieLinke,andAlternativeforGermany,takeissuewithherRussia
policy.LeaderswithintheSPDhaveadvocatedforliftingEUsanctionsonRussia,whilerepresentativesofDieLinkeandAlternativeforGermanyseekto
cultivatetieswithRussia.
TheUKremainsvulnerablebutmoreresistanttotheKremlinsefforts.DuringtheBrexitcampaign,UKIPleaderNigelFaragecriticizedEUsanctionsand
expressedadmirationforPutin.AftertheBrexitvote,UKIPcoulddowellinfutureelectionsandtrytosoftenthecountryshawkishpositiononRussia.Theres
evidencethattheConservativePartyhasreceivedsubstantialdonationswithdirectlinkstoRussia,althoughunderPrimeMinisterTheresaMay,theparty
firmlysupportsNATOandthetransatlanticalliance.JeremyCorbyn,theleaderoftheLabourPartyisopenlywarmtowardRussia,buthisleadershipis
precarious.Moregenerally,numerousthinktanksandculturalorganizationsfollowaproRussialine.TheprobleminLondoniseasytosee:Russiausesnon
transparencyincampaignfinancingandfinancialtransactionstoestablishproRussiangroupsandfunnelpoliticalcontributionsthroughshellorganizations.
ThelawonforeigncontributionsshouldbetightenedandtheElectoralCommissionshouldtakeproactiveenforcementaction.Intelligenceagenciesshouldbe
givenaclearmandatetoinvestigateforeignfundingofpoliticalparties,andpoliticaldonationsfromoutsidetheUKshouldbeforbidden.
TheKremlinsconcertedefforttoestablishnetworksofpoliticalinfluenceisworking.BetheyPutinverstehern,usefulidiots,agentsofinfluence,orTrojan
Horses,theaimisthesame:tocultivateanetworkoforganizationsandindividualsthatsupportRussianeconomicandgeopoliticalinterests,denouncetheEU
andEuropeanintegration,propagateanarrativeofWesterndecline,andvoteagainstEUpoliciesonRussia(mostnotablysanctions)thuslegitimatingthe
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KremlinsmilitaryinterventionisminUkraineandSyria,weakeningtransatlanticinstitutions,andunderminingliberaldemocraticvalues.
TheKremlinsinfluenceoperationsarenotjusttacticalopportunism.Behindthenetworks,thelongtermgoalistoupendtheWesternliberalorderbyturning
Westernvirtuesofopennessandpluralityintovulnerabilitiestobeexploited.Theseeffortswerelongignored,overlooked,ordeniedbyWesternEuropean
countries.ButtheyarenowbearingfruitfortheKremlin.AntiEU,proRussianparties,drivenbydomesticdiscontentbutfannedbyRussiansupport,are
gainingatthepollstheUKhasvotedtoleavetheEUtherefugeecrisis,partiallyfacilitatedbyRussiasmilitaryinterventioninSyria,isdrivingawedge
betweenEuropeannationstatestrustinestablishmentpartiesandmediaisonthedeclineandselfproclaimedilliberalleadersinPolandandHungaryare
forginganantidemocraticpaththatlooksEastratherthanWest.
WesterndemocracieshavenotcometotermswithRussiasincreasinginfluenceintheirpoliticsandsocieties.Thislaginresponsetotheslowlymetastasizing
threatislikelyduetoWesternEuropeanleadersattentionbeingfocusedelsewhere:Europehasbeenmuddlingthroughitsmanycrisesforthelastdecade,
andtheneedtosolveEuropesimmediateproblemstakesprimacyoverincrementallybrewinginfluenceeffortsbyaforeignpower.However,Westernhubris
alsohasaroletoplayEuropeanleadershavebeenreluctanttoadmitthattheworldsoldestdemocraciescanfallpreytoforeigninfluence.Openand
transparentliberaldemocraticinstitutionsaresupposedtobeabulwarkagainstopaquenetworksofinfluence,buttheyarenot.British,French,andGerman
leadersmustcometotermswiththeircountriesvulnerabilitiestoRussianinfluencebeforeitstoolate.
AlinaPolyakovaistheDeputyDirectorattheDinuPatriciuEurasiaCenterandSeniorFellowfortheFutureEuropeInitiativeattheAtlanticCouncil.Shetweets
@alinasphere.SheisacontributortotheAtlanticCouncilsTheKremlinsTrojanHorsesreport,alongwithMarleneLaruelle,StefanMeister,andNeilBarnett,
fromwhichthisarticlehasbeenadapted.
EuropeanUnion
Russia
France
Germany
UnitedKingdom
Original
DinuPatriciuEurasiaCenter
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Ukraine
UkraineAlert
AlinaPolyakova
Copyright2016AtlanticCouncil.
AllRightsReserved.

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