Session 2.

The Current Situation

and Future Outlook for Tourism
in Asia and the Pacific

Ramon Benedicto A. Alampay, Ph.D.

Asian Institute of Management
International Tourism Trends post-2008
Cautious optimism. Particularly in Asia and the Pacific
 International Visitor Arrivals, by Region
(in millions, 2000-2009)

Change 2008-2009
Global: -4.24%
Average Growth Per Year 00-09 Europe: -5.60%
Global: 2.87% Americas: - 4.70%
Asia and Pacific: 5.76% Asia and Pacific: -1.68%

SOURCE: UN WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATON

 “The global recovery has evolved better than expected,
with activity recovering at varying speeds–– tepidly in
many advanced economies but solidly in most emerging
and developing economies… Among advanced
economies, the United States is off to a better start than
Europe and Japan. Among emerging and developing
economies, emerging Asia is in the lead.”

- International Monetary Fund (April 2010)

Average Real GDP Growth (%) in Asia, 2010–11
Overall, the rate of economic
recovery has been better than
expected, though at different
speeds for different countries.

Nevertheless, there still is a

lot of uncertainty in the short-
to mid-term.

• The Greek/euro crisis

• Political unrest in Bangkok
• The new US offensive in
Afghanistan
• etc.
 “...unlike previous major crises such as 9/11 and SARS, the
current downturn does not impact so much on the desire to
travel... Though certainly not immune to economic woes,
tourism has so far resisted the economic downturn
better than other economic sectors, such as
construction, real estate, or car manufacturing.”

- UN World Tourism Organization

Asia-Pacific Region has
been fairly resilient
Greater proportion of intra-regional tourists 
less dependent on long-haul travelers from
Europe and North America.

Growth in regional low-cost carriers has boosted

travel to neighboring countries

Rise of China, India, Korea, and Russia as key

international tourism source markets

Easing of border restrictions around the region

Asia and the Pacific as a Tourism Region
DRIVERS OF GROWTH INDICATORS

Increasing affluence 7.3% annual growth

within region; rate projected to
growing year 2020;
Entry of China, India Global share to rise
& Russia as source from 15% in 1995 to
markets 25% by 2020

Easing of border Increasing intra-

restrictions regional traffic
 Steadily regaining momentum
Upward trend since the last quarter
of 2009

Positive growth for first two months

of 2010, in all regions, led by Asia
and the Pacific (+10%)
Hong Kong: +14%
Macau: +16%
Indonesia: +14%
Singapore: +21%
Vietnam: +36%

Jan-Feb 2010 = 119 million arrivals;

Higher than 2009 figures (112
SOURCE: UN World Tourism Organizaton
million) but still 2% below 2008
numbers
 International Tourism.
Back to growth in 2010

SOURCE: UN WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATON

Asia-Pacific is the Fastest Growing
Tourism Region in the World
Regional Shares of Global Tourism (1950-2009)

Asia-Pacific share has been rising.

1950 = 0.8% of total
2009 = 20.6% of total

SOURCE: UN World Tourism Organizaton and OECD

Over the long-term, intraregional travel in Asia & the
Pacific is expected to continue to grow...

…as will DOMESTIC tourism by Asian residents.

International Tourism 2009/10 forecast

2009 Forecast 2010

World -4% 3% to 4%

Europe -6% 1% to 3%

Asia & the Pacific -2% 5% to 7%

Americas -5% 2% to 4%

Africa +5% 4% to 7%

Middle East -6% 5% to 9%

 Profile of the new tourist
Independent
experienced
technology oriented
demanding = Value for money (quality in
products and service / to deliver what is
“promised”)
more active (complementary activities)
and willing to learn from other cultures
taking shorter but more frequent
vacations throughout the year
environmentally and socially sensitive
New Challenges for Tourism in the 21st Century

ACCESS

TOURISTS DESTINATION

Access in New types of

Increasing volumes
terms of attractions and
of tourists
transport, destinations
Changing profiles of information, Destination
tourists and borders management

More governments, development agencies, and NGOs are

recognizing the potentials (and risks) of tourism for economic
growth, sustainable resource use, and equitable social development.
Thank you very much.