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THE
COST
OF
NOT
HOUSING
BY JOEL KOTKIN
SPONSORED BY
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
Executive Summary
It is a commonplace view that housing does not contribute to the overall
fiscal and economic condition of cities. Recent trendsboth nationally and
here in Californiasuggest that this is not the case. New housing, including
affordable units, provide some direct stimulation through construction jobs,
but also allow people, particularly young families, to stay, work and shop
locally. Lack of affordable housing ultimately drives people, particularly the
entry level and young educated, out of regions where their labor would be
coveted by local companies.
Some in the real estate industry, seeing ever higher prices, do not see a crisis
here. Yet the current real estate bubble is not a durable replacement for
a strong, sustainable economy. Older owners, and land speculators with a
hold on scarce developable parcel, may do well under such conditions, but
draining household finances for rents depresses retail sales, and makes
saving for a home purchase ever more difficult.
The problems are particularly relevant to areas like the Inland Empire and
the Central Valley, whose economies depend on the migration of middle and
working class families seeking more affordable housing. Yet developing such
housescritical to future economic growthhas been greatly constrained
by a regulatory regime that works to reduce housing growth, particularly for
single family houses, in the periphery. The result has been steadily escalating
rents and house prices across the state.
To meet the needs of its increasingly diverse population, and particularly
the next generation, California needs to reform its regulations to more
fully reflect the needs and preferences of its citizens. Once the home of the
peculiarly optimistic California Dream, our state is in danger of becoming a
place good for the wealthy and well-established but offering little to the vast
majority of its citizens who wish to live affordably and comfortably in this
most blessed of states.
I want, and I know all cities want, to create housing where people who work in our
restaurants, who work as first year school teachers, who work in our department
storeswe want them to live in our community. My children cannot afford a house in
Rancho Cucamonga. We need a greater opportunity for housing affordability.
~ L. Dennis Michael, Mayor of Rancho Cucamonga and League of California Cities President
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
FIGURE 1 New
7
Rate per 1,000 Population
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
California
Texas
United States
FIGURE 2 All
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
LA
ty
un
Co
Ora
e
ng
ty
un
Co
er
Riv
e
sid
ty
h
A
ia
co
no
ort A
MS
cis A forn
rdi ty
t W MS ston
r
rnaCoun Fran MS Cali
o
e
u
n
s-F
nB
Ho
Sa
lla
Sa
Da
un
Co
es
a
Tex
ed
nit
t
Sta
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
FIGURE 3 Multi-Family
Building Permits:
2014 California and Comparisons
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
LA
ty
un
Co
nty
ou
eC
ng
Ora
nty
a
SA
rth
ino
sco
rni
Wo SA
nci SA lifo
nM
ard nty
ort M usto
ern Cou n Fra M Ca
F
B
s
n
Ho
Sa
lla
Sa
Da
ou
eC
id
ers
Riv
Building Permits:
2014 California and Comparisons
es
a
Tex
tat
dS
e
nit
FIGURE 4 Single-Family
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
nty
ou
C
LA
Ora
e
ng
ty
un
Co
ers
Riv
nty
h
A
ia
co
no
ort A
MS
cis A forn
rdi ty
t W MS ston
r
rnaCoun Fran MS Cali
o
e
u
n
s-F
nB
Ho
Sa
lla
Sa
Da
ou
C
ide
es
a
Tex
d
ite
t
Sta
Un
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
9
8
Median Multiple
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1970
1980
1985
1990
1995
2001
2005
2010
2015
FIGURE 6 Satisfaction
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
All
Residents
City
Residents
Suburban
Residents
Small Town
Residents
Rural
Residents
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
Derived from
2010 Census, ACS (*2010-4):
City Sector Model 2015 Revision
Earlier Suburb
30.0%
Urban Core:CBD
0.3%
Exurb
13.7%
FIGURE 8 Exurbs
2.5
Emerging Suburb
Mature Suburb
Exurb
Urban Core
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
-0.5
2001-02
2004-05
2007-08
2010-11
2013-14
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Core
Inner Ring
Second ring
Outer Ring
FIGURE 10 California
Emissions: Comparisons
Emission Reduction Goal & Out-Migrant Increase
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
Emissions increases caused
by Net Domestic Migration
from California Versus CARB
2020 Reduction Target from
2000-2004 Levels
(tons of CO2 per annum)
10,000,000
41,714,614
0
-10,000,000
-20,000,000
Metric Tons
-30,000,000
-40,000,000
-42,000,000
-50,000,000
California Air Resources Board and Friedman
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
Impacts on Californias
Young Families
FIGURE 11 Change
30%
25%
20%
Riverside/
San Bernardino
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Atlanta
Dallas/
Ft. Worth
Denver
Houston
San
San Diego Francisco
-10%
-15%
Los Angeles
-20%
FIGURE 12 Age
45.7
30%
24.4
18.6
20%
20.6
17.5
12.9
San Jose
14.0
10%
Responsible communities
provide a range of housing
that meets the needs of the
people working in them, the
children that grow up there
and their grandchildren.
2.2
0%
2.3
CBD
Inner Ring
Earlier Suburb
Later Suburb
Exurb
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
Detached House
81%
Townhouse
8%
FIGURE 14 African-American
Children in MMSAs*
Largest Losses: Ages 5-14: 2000-2010
h,
-W
PA
,O
nd
la
ve
Cle
-IN
I
A
J-P
CA
-N
NY
, IL
k,
urg
go
r
Yo
CA
o,
CA
MI
e,
os
tsb
ica
Pit
Ch
Ne
nJ
Sa
it,
tro
o,
ieg
isc
,C
les
c
ran
nF
nD
De
Sa
Sa
ge
An
-20%
,L
-15%
ns
lea
-10%
s
Lo
-5%
Or
Ne
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
FIGURE 15 Change
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Atlanta
Houston
Dallas-Ft. Worth
San Francisco
Home Ownership
California & High Migration Metropolian Areas
Los Angeles
FIGURE 16 African-American
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Atlanta
DallasFt. Worth
Denver
San
Houston Los Angeles Riverside- San Diego
San Bernardino
Francisco
Home Ownership
California & High Migration Metropolian Areas
San
Jose
FIGURE 17 Asian
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Atlanta
DallasFt. Worth
Denver
San
Houston Los Angeles Riverside- San Diego
San Bernardino
Francisco
San
Jose
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Atlanta
DallasFt. Worth
Denver
San
Houston Los Angeles Riverside- San Diego
San Bernardino
Francisco
San
Jose
FIGURE 19 Change
25%
20%
Riv
Sa ersid
n B eern
ard
ino
15%
10%
5%
-15%
ity
sa
sC
go
Ka
n
Ne
Ch
ica
wY
ork
les
ge
An
Lo
s
Ho
us
ton
ee
uk
Mi
lwa
nv
er
De
e
os
nJ
Sa
n
gto
hin
cis
-5%
-10%
co
0%
Wa
s
Home Ownership
California & High Migration Metropolian Areas
nF
ran
FIGURE 18 Hispanic
Sa
FIGURE 20 Change
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
o
le
rgh
oni
sbu
Ant
Pitt
San
hvil
Nas
ver
Den
ndo
Orla
sto
Hou
tin
Aus
mi
Mia
nd
vela
Cle
ide
ers o
Riv ardin
ern
nB
ttle
Sea
Sa
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
Outside CA
San Jose
San Francisco
Bakersfield
Sacramento
Oakland
Fresno
Orange County
RiversideSan Bernardino
San Diego
Los Angeles
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
By Income Classification
70%
California
60%
Rest of US
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Housing is essential to a
healthy, thriving community.
Businesses make decisions
on where to invest based on
housing costs and the ability
to attract qualified employees.
Lowest Quartile
High Quartile
$350
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Food
Transportation
Health Care
Retirement
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
60%
50%
White-Non-Hispanic
African-American
40%
Asian
Hispanic
30%
20%
10%
0%
California
Central
Valley
Los Angeles
RiversideSan Francisco
San Bernardino Bay Area
~ Mayor Rusty Bailey, on how the City of Riverside strives to be a complete city
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
FIGURE 25 Poverty
in California v. US
Housing Cost Adjusted 2013
30%
25%
Poverty Rate
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
San
Jos
ent
ram
Sac
les
nge
A
Los
sn
Fre
San
go
Die
i
s
nia
ide
sipp
tate
ifor
ers o
dS
ssis
i
e
Riv ardin Cal
t
i
M
Un
ern
nB
isco
nc
Fra
San
Sa
FIGURE 26 Renters
70%
60%
50%
Overcrowding in California:
The Tragic Side of Californias
Shortfall.
40%
10%
30%
20%
0%
nta
Atla
orth
Ft. W
salla
ver
Den
sto
Hou
les
nge
A
Los
San
co
go
ide
Die
ncis
ers o
Fra
Riv ardin San
n
a
n
S
Ber
San
Jos
American Community
Survey 2014 (5 Year)
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
United States
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
The Consequences of
Downward Mobility
Californias high housing prices threaten
to make a state that once epitomized
aspiration into a dead end for many
of its residents. Californias rate of
homeownership has dropped more rapidly
than that of most other states and its rate
of homeownership has fallen well below
the national average, ranking second
lowest in the nation behind only New York.
The ability to own a home is widely
considered by Americans as critical to
being considered middle class.67 The
house remains, even in these more difficult
times, the last great asset of the middle
class. Homes represent only 9.4 percent
of the wealth of the top one percent of the
nations wealthy, but 30 percent for those
in the upper twenty percent and, for the
overall sixty percent of the population in
the middle, 67 percent.68
FIGURE 28 Home
Ownership: 2015
California and High In-Migration States
Census Bureau
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
California
Colorado
Georgia
Texas
FIGURE 29 Share
Edward Wolf
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Top 1%
Top 20%
Middle 60%
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
Affordability: Black
Compared to White Non-Hispanic: 2014
16
14
White-Non-Hispanic
12
African-American
10
8
6
4
2
0
nta
Atla
orth
Ft. W
salla
ver
Den
sto
Hou
co
go
ide
Die
ncis
ers o
Fra
Riv ardin San
n
Sa
ern
nB
les
nge
A
Los
San
Jos
Sa
FIGURE 31 Housing
Affordability: Asian
Compared to White Non-Hispanic: 2014
Median Value/Median Household Income
FIGURE 30 Housing
10
9
White-Non-Hispanic
Asian
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
nta
Atla
orth
Ft. W
salla
ver
Den
sto
Hou
les
nge
A
Los
San
co
go
ide
Die
ncis
ers o
Fra
Riv ardin San
n
a
n
S
Ber
Affordability: Hispanic
Compared to White Non-Hispanic: 2014
San
Jos
FIGURE 32 Housing
14
White-Non-Hispanic
12
Hispanic
10
8
6
4
2
0
nta
Atla
orth
.W
Da
-Ft
llas
ver
Den
sto
Hou
co
go
ide
Die
ncis
ers o
Fra
Riv ardin San
n
Sa
ern
nB
les
nge
A
Los
San
Jos
Sa
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Single Family
Detached
Townhouse
15.1
15%
15.1
16.1
12.1
10%
5%
0%
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
Mixed signals in the U.S. housing market, Global Property Guide, August 15, 2015, http://www.globalpropertyguide.
com/North-America/United-States/Price-History;Pat Mertz Esswein, Miriam Cross and Kaitlin Pitsker, 10 Markets Where
Housing Prices Have Risen the Most, Kiplinger, August 2014, http://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/real-estate/T010S001-12-cities-where-home-prices-have-risen-most/index.html.
endell Cox and Hugh Pavletich, 12th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey (2015: 3rd
W
Quarter), Demographia, 2016, http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf
riston Capps, Im Obsessed With San Franciscos Bunk-Bed Craigslist Ads, CityLab, September 25, 2015, http://www.
K
citylab.com/housing/2015/09/im-obsessed-with-san-franciscos-bunk-bed-craigslist-ads/407281/?utm_source=atlfb;
Wolf Richter, Housing Affordability in San Francisco & Bay Area Plunges; Stock, Interest Rates Could Trigger Epic Bust,
Wolf Street, August 15, 2015,http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/16/housing-affordability-san-francisco-bay-area-plungesstocks-interest-rates-to-trigger-epic-bust/
hristopher Thornberg, Housing a Middle-Class crisis in California, The San Diego Union-Tribune, January 23,
C
2016,http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/jan/23/housing-california-middle-class/.
Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox, The cities doing the most to address the U.S. housing shortage, New Geography, December
18, 2015, http://www.newgeography.com/content/005125-the-cities-doing-the-most-to-address-the-us-housing-shortage
Joel Kotkin, The Cities Doing The Most To Adress the U.S. Housing Shortage, Forbes, December 17, 2015, http://www.
forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2015/12/17/the-cities-doing-the-most-to-address-the-u-s-housing-shortage/.
has Alamo and Brian Uhler, Californias High Housing Costs: Causes and Consequences, Legislative Analysts Office,
C
March 17, 2015, http://www.lao.ca.gov/reports/2015/finance/housing-costs/housing-costs.aspx.
endell Cox, California Declares War on Suburbia, The Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2012, http://www.wsj.com/articles/
W
SB10001424052702303302504577323353434618474.
10
teven Greenhut, California Climate Policies Chilling House Growth, reason.com, December 11, 2015, https://reason.
S
com/archives/2015/12/11/california-climate-policies-chilling-hou.
11
d Braddy, Smart Growth and the New Newspeak, New Geography, April 4, 2012, http://www.newgeography.com/
E
content/002740-smart-growth-and-the-new-newspeak.
12
Combined statistical area (which includes the San Francisco and San Jose metropolitan areas and others).
13
William Fischel, Regulatory Takings, Law, Economics and Politics (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1995).
14
15
Jason Furman, Barriers to Shared Growth: The Case of Land Use Regulation and Economic Rents, The Urban Institute,
November 20, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/page/files/20151120_barriers_shared_growth_
land_use_regulation_and_economic_rents.pdf. (url worked for me Alicia)
16
ustin Williams, Enemies of Progress (Charlottesville, VA: 2008), 57; Peter Gordon and Harry W. Richardson, Critiquing
A
Sprawls Critics, Policy Analysis, No. 365, January 24, 2000, 5, http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/
pa365.pdf.
17
teven Conn, Lets make suburbs into cities: New urbanism, car culture and the future of community, Salon, August 17,
S
2004, http://www.salon.com/2014/08/17/lets_make_suburbs_into_cities_new_urbanism_car_culture_and_the_future_
of_community/.
18
Suburbs Not Most Popular, But Suburbanites Most Content, Pew Research Center, February 26, 2009, http://www.
pewsocialtrends.org/2009/02/26/suburbs-not-most-popular-but-suburbanites-most-content/.
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
19
eter Calthorpe, The Next American Metropolis: Ecology, Community and the American Dream (Princeton, NJ: Princeton
P
University Press, 1993), 18-19.
20
cott A. Hodge and Andrew Lundeen, America Has Become a Nation of Dual-Income Working Couples, Tax Foundation,
S
November 21, 2013, http://taxfoundation.org/blog/america-has-become-nation-dual-income-working-couples.
21
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303749904579576440578771478
22
Zillow Predicts Lack of Affordable Options Will Drive First-Time Buyers to Suburban Markets in 2016, MultifamilyBiz.com,
November 30, 2015, http://www.multifamilybiz.com/News/6593/Zillow_Predicts_Lack_of_Affordable_Options_Will_Dr.
23
24
aul Myors, Rachel OLeary, and Rob Helstroom, Multi Unit Residential Buildings Energy & Peak Demand Study,
P
EnergyAustralia, October 2005, http://www.ausgrid.com.au/Common/Our-network/Demand-management-and-energyefficiency/Energy-use-facts-and-figures/~/media/Files/Network/Demand%20Management/Energy%20use%20
resources/Networks_multi_unit_sumrep_Oct08.pdf.
25
endell Cox, Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policy: From Rhetoric to Reason, New Geography, http://www.newgeography.
W
com/content/0039-greenhouse-gas-reduction-policy-from-rhetoric-reason, also see Wendell Cox, Housing Form in
Australia and Its Impact on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Residential Development Council, October 22, 2007, https://
www.academia.edu/22391768/Housing_form_in_Australia_and_its_impact_on_greenhouse_gas_emissions.
26
Carbon footprint assumptions do not hold true for Halifax, CBC News, April 29, 2013, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/
nova-scotia/carbon-footprint-assumptions-do-not-hold-true-for-halifax-1.1371095.
27
28
hil McKenna, Forget Curbing Suburban Sprawl, MIT Technology Review, September 3, 2009, http://www.
P
technologyreview.com/news/415135/forget-curbing-suburban-sprawl/; Rebecca Alvania and Luwam Yeibio, Increasing
Residential ad Employment Density Could Mean Reductions in Vehicle Travel, Fuel Use, and CO2 emissions, The National
Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, September 1, 2009, http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/
newsitem.aspx?RecordID=12747.
29
hil McKenna, Forget Curbing Suburban Sprawl, MIT Technology Review, September 3, 2009, https://www.
P
technologyreview.com/s/415135/forget-curbing-suburban-sprawl/.
30
Forget Curbing Suburban Sprawl; Witold Rybczyniski, Makeshift Metropolis (New York: Scribner, 2010), 186.
31
Jon Creyts, Anton Derkach, Scott Nyquist, Ken Ostrowski, and Jack Stephenson, Reducing US Greenhouse Gas Emissions:
How Much at What Cost? McKinsey & Company, December 2007, http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/
sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/reducing-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions. ,
32
L loyd Alter, To Go Green, Live Closer to Work, treehugger, October 2, 2007, http://www.treehugger.com/sustainableproduct-design/to-go-green-live-closer-to-work.html; Sharon Bernstein and Francisco Vara-Orta, Near the rails but on the
road, Los Angeles Times, June 30, 2007, http://articles.latimes.com/2007/jun/30/local/me-transit30.
33
avid Friedman and Jennifer Hernandez, California Environmental Quality Act, Greenhouse Gas Regulation and Climate
D
Change, Chapman University Press, 2015, http://www.chapman.edu/wilkinson/_files/GHGfn.pdf.
34
http://www.chapman.edu/wilkinson/_files/searleweb1415.pdf
35
helsea Dulaney, Apartment Rents Rise as Incomes Stagnate, The Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2014, http://www.
C
wsj.com/articles/apartment-rents-rise-as-incomes-stagnate-1404273662 ]; Joel Kotkin, Baby Boomtowns: The U.S.
Cities Attracting the Most Families, September 11, 2014, http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2014/09/11/babyboomtowns-the-u-s-cities-attracting-the-most-families/.
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
36
mily Heffter, Zillows 2016 Forecast: Suburban Living Heats Up, Zillow, November 30, 2015, http://www.zillow.
E
com/blog/zillow-2016-forecast-187561/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=emm-0116_
buzz2016predictions-button; Patrick Clark, The Exact Moment Big Cities Got Too Expensive for Millennials,
BloombergBusiness, July 15, 2015, ttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/the-exact-momentbig-cities-got-too-expensive-for-millennials?utm_source=Mic+Check&utm_campaign=2b200dd408-Thursday_
July_167_15_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_51f2320b33-2b200dd408-285306781.
37
Renting Less Affordable Than Ever Before, While Mortages Remain Affordable, by Historical Standards, Zillow, August
13, 2015, http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=28775&item=137182.
38
lden Baker, U.S. cities left on their own The Globe and Mail (Canada), March 24, 1981; Jenny Thompson, Bright Lights,
A
Big City: Early 1980s New York, The American past: NYC in focus, September 4, 2014, http://americanpast.blogspot.
com/2014/09/bright-lights-big-city-early-1980s-new.html.
39
Z ip codes (zip code tabulation areas) with population densities 7,500 per square mile & above and transit/walk/bicycle
commute shares of 20% and above. See City Sector Model, at http://www.demographia.com/csmcriteria.png and http://
www.newgeography.com/category/story-topics/city-sector-model.
40
endell Cox, Urban Core Millennials? A Matter of Perspective, New Geography, March 6, 2015, http://www.
W
newgeography.com/content/004864-urban-core-millennials-a-matter-perspective.
41
Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends, National Association of Realtors, March 2015, http://www.realtor.
org/sites/default/files/reports/2015/2015-home-buyer-and-seller-generational-trends-2015-03-11.pdf?utm_
source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=21927799&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_12AfxVI9zZ4mSzz8SS75C7_
yXu2vbK_9e9KKi2jd3KYJUdPscTskdIYZplm6sOINV2lWx1JJ4RaFAEtFKfjN0rWEQKg&_hsmi=21927799.
42
. Leanne Lachman and Deborah L. Brett, Gen Y and Housing: What they want and where they want it, Urban Land
M
Institute, 2015, http://uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Gen-Y-and-Housing.pdf.
43
Jed Kolko, Urban Headwinds, Suburban Tailwinds, Trulia, January 22, 2015, http://www.trulia.com/trends/2015/01/
cities-vs-suburbs-jan-2015/.
44
Millennials Will Play a Large Role in Shaping Housing Demand, Reports the Demand Institute, The Conference Board,
September 16, 2014, https://www.conference-board.org/press/pressdetail.cfm?pressid=5278;
45
ick Timiraos, New Housing Headwind Looms as Fewer Renters Can Afford to Own, The Wall Street Journal, June 7,
N
2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-housing-crisis-looms-as-fewer-renters-can-afford-to-own-1433698639?cb=logg
ed0.8265339631128316.
46
Report P-2: Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity and 5-Year Age Groups, 2010-2060, California Department of
Finance, December 2014, http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/projections/P-2/.
47
ark Duell, Census reveals African-American children are leaving large U.S. cities as their young parents head for better
M
life in suburbs, Daily Mail, June 30, 2011, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2009903/African-American-childrenleaving-biggest-U-S-cities-young-parents-head-suburbs.html
48
Calculated from Census data for the African American only population from Census data.
49
http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/blog/2015/12/heres-the-main-reason-toyota-is-moving-from.html
50
51
ue Dremann, Silicon Valleys year: amazing but with perils, Palo Alto Online, February 10, 2016, http://www.
S
paloaltoonline.com/news/2016/02/10/silicon-valleys-year-amazing-but-with-perils.
52
ichey Piiparinen, Jim Russell, and Charlie Post, The Fifth Migration, The Cleveland Foundation, January 20, 2016,
R
https://www.clevelandfoundation.org/2016/01/the-fifth-migration/.
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
53
54
Housing challenges, in State of the Nations Housing 2015, Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, 2015,
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/jchs-sonhr-2015-ch6.pdf.
55
Jack Kleinhenz, How the housing industry affects retail sales and the economic recovery, National Retail Federation,
May 16, 2013, https://nrf.com/news/retail-companies/how-the-housing-industry-affects-retail-sales-and-the-economicrecovery
56
Housing Affordabilitys Impact on Local Government Finance: A Case Study, Colorado Futures Center and The Piton
Foundation, 2014, http://www.piton.org/sites/default/files/HousingAffordabilitysImpactonLocalGovtFinance.pdf.
57
eth Kerstein, Understanding Californias Sales Tax, Legislative Analysts Office, May 5, 2015, http://www.lao.ca.gov/
S
reports/2015/finance/sales-tax/understanding-sales-tax-050615.aspx#Are_Revenues_Growing.3F.
58
adine Ono, Lack of affordable housing in Inland Empire placing bigger economic burden on low-income families,
N
California Economic Summit, September 22, 2015, http://www.caeconomy.org/reporting/entry/lack-of-affordablehousing-in-inland-empire-placing-bigger-economic-burden.
59
https://www.unitedwaysca.org/realcost
60
athleen Short, The Supplemental Poverty Measure: 2013, United States Census Bureau, October 2014, http://www.
K
census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2014/demo/p60-251.pdf.
61
Housing challenges.
62
L.A. has a serious housing crisis and its time for city officials to do something about it, Los Angeles Times, January 11,
2015, http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-affordable-housing-part-1-20150111-story.html.
63
64
cott M. Stringer, NYC Housing Brief, Office of the New York City Comptroller, October 2015, http://comptroller.nyc.gov/
S
wp-content/uploads/documents/Hidden_Households.pdf
65
Cities and Sustainable Infrastructuire. Global Cities Institute, (Toronto, 2015), http://www.cityindicators.org/Deliverables/
Cities%20and%20Sustainable%20Infrastructure%20Policy%20Snapshot%20-%20Web_7-17-2015-956388.pdf
66
lexander Nazaryn, A Young Mayors Fight to Save Los Angeles from Its Gridlocked Self , Newsweek, January 13, 2016,
A
http://www.newsweek.com/2016/01/22/los-angeles-mayor-eric-garcetti-traffic-cars-gridlock-sidewalks-414912.html
67
T om Breen, UConn/Hartford Courant Poll: Middle Class Dream Persists, Though Harder to Attain, UConn Today, February
11, 2013, http://today.uconn.edu/blog/2013/02/uconnhartford-courant-poll-middle-class-dream-persists-though-harderto-attain/.
68
Jordan Weissmann, The Recessions Toll: How Middle Class Wealth Collapsed to a 40-Year Low, The Atlantic, December
4, 2012, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/12/the-recessions-toll-how-middle-class-wealth-collapsedto-a-40-year-low/265743/.
69
John Hunneman, More Inland millennials living with Mom and Dad, The Press Enterprise, December 8, 2014, http://
www.pe.com/articles/percent-755889-young-adults.html.
70
71
aldo Lopez-Aqueres, Joelle Skaga and Tadeusz Kugler, Housing Californias Latino Population in the 21st Century: The
W
Challenge Ahead (Los Angeles, CA: The Tomas Rivera Policy Institute, 2002),http://www.trpi.org/PDFs/housing_ca_
latinos.pdf. Growth controls are compact development policies.
72
eter Gordon and Harry W. Richardson, Critiquing Sprawls Critics, Cato Institute, January 24, 2000, http://object.cato.
P
org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa365.pdf.
Joel Kotkin
2 0 1 6 SYMPOSIUM ON THE
AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
73
atthew Yglesias, the Biggest Thing Blue States Are Screwing Up, Real Clear Policy, August 29, 2014, http://www.
M
realclearpolicy.com/2014/08/29/the_biggest_thing_blue_states_are_screwing_up_21791.html.
74
r. Gerard Mildner, Density at Any Cost, Portland State University, November 2014, http://www.pdx.edu/realestate/
D
sites/www.pdx.edu.realestate/files/Mildner_UGR_article_3.pdf;
75
Jonathan Fearn, Denise Pinkston, and Nicolas Arenson, The Bay Area Housing Crisis: A Developers Perspective, May 8,
2015, http://apps.mtc.ca.gov/meeting_packet_documents/agenda_2404/04_Affordable_Housing_PerspectiveNA.pdf.
76
obert Fishman, Cities After the End of Cities: towards an urban pluralism, Harvard Design Magazine, Winter/Spring
R
1997, 14-15.
77
aul Taylor, Jeffrey Passel, Richard Fry, Richard Morin, Wendy Wang, Gabriel Velasco, and Daniel Dockterman, , The
P
Return of the Multi-Generational Family Household, Pew Research Center, March 18, 2010, http://www.pewsocialtrends.
org/2010/03/18/the-return-of-the-multi-generational-family-household/.
78
Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends, National Association of Realtors, 2015, http://www.realtor.org/reports/
home-buyer-and-seller-generational-trends.
79
L es Christie, The new American household: 3 generations, 1 roof, CNN Money, April 3, 2012, http://money.cnn.
com/2012/04/03/real_estate/multi-generation-households/index.htm.
80
ichard Fry and Jeffrey S. Passel, In Post-Recession Era, Young Adults Drive Continuing Rise in Multi-Generational Living,
R
Pew Research Center, July 17, 2014, http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/07/17/in-post-recession-era-young-adultsdrive-continuing-rise-in-multi-generational-living/.
81
hristopher Palmeri and Frank Bass, Grandma Bunks With Jobless Kids as Multigenerational Homes Surge, Bloomberg
C
Business, August 29, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-08-30/grandma-bunks-with-jobless-kids-asmultigenerational-homes-surge.
82
Frank Lloyd Wright, The Living City (Horizon Press, 1958) 87.
Joel Kotkin