November 2011

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

SCB EIC summary main forecasts

Key indicators
Real GDP growth
Demand-side
Private consumption
Public consumption
Investment (GFCF)
Private investment
Public investment
Supply-side
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
External sector
Export growth excl. gold (USD)
Import growth excl. gold (USD)
Current account
Key rates
Headline inflation
Core inflation
Policy rate (RP-1D) (end period)
THB/USD (period average)
THB/USD (end period)
THB/EUR (end period)
THB/JPY (end period)
THB/CNY (end period)
Oil prices WTI (period average)
Oil prices WTI (end period)
International tourists

% YOY

2010
7.8%

Actual
11Q1 11Q2
3.2%
2.6%

51%
10%
21%
16%
5%

% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY

4.8%
6.4%
9.4%
13.8%
-2.2%

3.3%
1.8%
9.3%
12.6%
-1.4%

2.7%
1.0%
4.1%
8.6%
-9.9%

2.4%
1.1%
3.3%
9.1%
-10.9%

0.3%
4.0%
-4.5%
-7.6%
7.0%

2.1%
1.9%
3.0%
5.6%
-4.7%

3.8%
4.4%
9.1%
10.0%
6.1%

8%
41%
51%

% YOY
% YOY
% YOY

-2.3%
13.9%
5.1%

7.6%
1.7%
3.6%

6.7%
-0.1%
4.5%

-0.9%
3.1%
4.3%

4.0%
-5.7%
-0.7%

4.6%
-0.2%
2.9%

4.0%
4.4%
4.0%

% YOY
% YOY
USD bln

29%
35%
14.8

24%
30%
5.9

25%
24%
1.4

26%
28%
3.4

4%
5%
0.2

19%
21%
10.9

13%
18%
4.7

9%
11%
9.6

7.9%
11.7%
-1.7

% YOY
% YOY
% p.a.
THB/USD
THB/USD
THB/EUR
THB/100JPY
THB/CNY
USD/bbl
USD/bbl
%YOY

3.3%
1.0%
2.00%
31.7
30.1
39.8
36.2
4.5
79.4
89.2
12%

3.0%
1.5%
2.50%
30.5
30.3
42.6
37.2
4.6
93.5
102.8
15%

4.1%
2.4%
3.00%
30.3
30.5
43.9
37.9
4.7
102.2
96.3
52%

4.1%
2.8%
3.50%
30.1
30.4
41.9
39.6
4.8
89.7
85.6
28%

4.6%
3.0%
3.25%
30.8
30.5
40.9
40.2
4.8
94.0
94.0
-22%

4.0%
2.4%
3.25%
30.4
30.0-31.0
40.9
40.2
4.8
94.9
94.0
14%

3.5-4.0%
2.5-3.0%
3.00%
30.3
29.5-30.5
41.4
41.1
4.9
101.8
108.0
5.0%

3.6%

3.5%
2.5%

as of Nov-11

as of Oct-11

2010
Share (%)

Unit

SCB EIC forecast

11Q3 11Q4
2011
2012
3.5% -(2-3)% 1.0-2.0% 4.0-5.0%

Consensus
2012
4.3%

BOT
2012
4.1%

3.6%

3.7%
4.9%

6.7%
8.8%
12.2%

Source: Consensus Economics, Bank of Thailand; SCB EIC forecasts (with updated Q3 actual figures)
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