Journal of Hydrology 481 (2013) 7684

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Journal of Hydrology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol

Analysing the 100 year sea level record of Leixes, Portugal

I.B. Arajo a,, M.S. Bos a, L.C. Bastos a,b, M.M. Cardoso a
a
b

CIIMAR/CIMAR, University of Porto, Rua dos Bragas 289, 4050-123 Porto, Portugal
Astronomical Observatory and DGAOT, Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, Rua do campo Alegre 687, 4169-007 Porto, Portugal

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 10 April 2012
Received in revised form 9 November 2012
Accepted 14 December 2012
Available online 21 December 2012
This manuscript was handled by Peter K.
Kitanidis, Editor-in-Chief, with the
assistance of Souheil M. Ezzedine, Associate
Editor
Keywords:
Long-term sea level
Tides
Gauge

s u m m a r y
A new data set from the tide gauge at Leixes (NorthWest Portugal) has recently been transferred from
its paper format into a digital time series of hourly sea level values. By measuring sea level variations
since 1890, this tide gauge station is one of the few in the world with over 100 yr of digitised hourly
records and the longest for the South West of Europe and Iberian Peninsula. This paper presents the procedures adopted to recover the Leixes sea level data from paper chart records as well as the data quality
control and data editing methodologies. The mean rate of sea level change between 1906 and 2008 is
0.70 0.27 mm yr1, which does not agree with the global mean sea level rise of 12 mm yr1. No evidence for vertical land movement was found and Global Isostatic Adjustment inuence on sea level, at
this location, can be neglected. It is likely that prevailing weather systems in the North Atlantic, especially
in the winter, and local atmospheric pressure, inuence sea levels at Leixes. A further contribution is
found from tides and surges. The evolution of the port cannot be ignored when trying to understand
sea level change.
2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
The understanding of sea level changes has in the past decade
acquired renewed interest in view of climate change research.
The use of historical sea levels to estimate local and global sea level
changes has been invaluable (e.g. Holgate, 2007; Church and
White, 2011). As Colosi and Munk (2006) have pointed out, there
is a large natural variability in sea level which makes it necessary
to have very long time-series to detect secular changes.
Sea level observations have a relatively long history dating back
to the late 17th Century (Woodworth et al., 2011; Wppelmann
et al., 2006). Along the European Atlantic coast, examples of such
stations are Brest (Wppelmann et al., 2006), Amsterdam (van
Veen, 1954), Liverpool (Woodworth, 1999), Stockholm (Ekman,
1988) and Cadiz (Marcos et al., 2011), for which datasets date back
to 1679, 1682, 1768, 1774 and 1880, respectively (c.f. Marcos et al.
(2011) for a summary of long-term records).
Some of these also have the longest continuous hourly readings registered through an automatic recording device composed
of a drum attached to a oat by a system of wires and counterweights. The oat-gauge system in a stilling well enables a tidal
curve to be drawn on a paper chart placed around the drum. It appeared in the 1st half of the 19th Century and was still the dominant tide gauge technology into the 20th Century.

Until recently, the longest sea level record for South-West Europe has been that of Cascais (Antunes and Taborda, 2009), in Portugal (38 410 38.800 N; 9250 5.400 W), for which monthly mean sea
levels exist since 1882 and hourly digitized levels only since
1960. Other Spanish and Portuguese hourly sea level data, prior
to the 60s, are likely to exist in paper format, nevertheless their
digitisation has not been made.
The Leixes Port authority recently brought to our attention that
there were additional long-term sea level records that can be added
to that of Cascais, namely Cantareira in the Douro River (4180 4700 N;
8400 000 W) and Leixes (41110 1200 N; 8420 1700 W), approximately
5 km North of Cantareira (Fig. 1). This led to the digitization of the
Leixes sea level observations that will be discussed herein. The rst
records date back to 1890, making this series the longest hourly-digitized record in the country and Iberian Peninsula. The objective of
this paper is to present this data set and to investigate if it can be
used to study secular sea level changes in the region.
This paper starts by giving an overview of the Port of Leixes, its
history and its tide gauges. This is followed by a description of the
dataset that was digitized and the methodology used in the recovery
of the records, which includes the data quality check (editing). Finally, we present the results and rst interpretation of this record.
2. Historical background
2.1. Evolution of the Leixes Port

Corresponding author. Tel.: +351 22 3401897; fax: +351 22 3390608.

E-mail addresses: iaraujo@ciimar.up.pt (I.B. Arajo), mbos@ciimar.up.pt (M.S.
Bos), lcbastos@fc.up.pt (L.C. Bastos).
0022-1694/$ - see front matter 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.019

The Port of Leixes is located on the northern Portuguese coast

approximately 5 km north of the Douro River mouth. The port

I.B. Arajo et al. / Journal of Hydrology 481 (2013) 7684

77

Fig. 1. Location and diagram of the Port of Leixes and its tide gauge station (shown by the black circle). Dates are given for the main construction works described in
Section 2.

extends from Lea da Palmeira (North) to Matosinhos (South), covering an area of 180 ha, see Fig. 1.
The construction of the port started in 1884 and evolved
throughout the following Century as a result of major land reclamation that substantially altered the original landscape. Sea levels
have been measured from tide gauges at Leixes since 1890 with
very few interruptions despite several severe political and nancial
episodes throughout those years. The history of this port (with
numerous anthropogenic inuences) should therefore be considered alongside to its sea level records.
Construction of the articial port started in July 1884 with the
North (1579 m) Breakwater and the South (1145 m) Breakwater
built with 50 ton granite block foundations on existing beach
rocks. In 1890 a low-rising breakwater added a few metres to the
North breakwater. These structures were mostly concluded in
1892. Construction of a commercial harbour started later in 1914
with a docking berth on the South Breakwater. However, works
were put on hold until 1932 as a result of national political unsettlement and the nancial constrictions of the great recession.
When construction picked up in 1932, increase in shipping activity
and mooring problems (conditioned by increased intensity of
waves) called for new expansion of the Port. This occurred inland
into the Lea estuary (19321940) with Dock 1 and the construction of an extension to the North Breakwater (19321945) to resolve the wave effects within the harbour. From 1956 to the 60s
further expansion took place inland with Dock 2 (0.5 km). Damming at the end of Dock 1 was necessary to avoid salt intrusion
to the (substantial) excavated grounds up the Lea River and adjacent area. This involved the diversion of the course of the Lea River into the harbour, outside Dock 1.
Further expansion included a shing harbour (19651968), a
terminal for tankers and the raising of the height of the breakwater
extension to above submersion level during the 60s. The North
Container Terminal (19741979) and the extension to Dock 2
(19741983), i.e. Dock 4, followed. At the end of the 80s the breakwater was increased and in the 90s the Marina and South Container Terminal were built (Fig. 1). A summary of all the major
constructions in the harbour and change of instrumentation is given in Table 1 and Fig. 1.
2.2. Description of the Leixes tide gauges and datum
The continuous water level measurements at Leixes have been,
and are still made using a oat gauge in a stilling well. The oldest

record found dates back to 1890. The exact location of the gauge up
to the early 1900s is questionable as the only information available
is from the header on the 1890 record, which mentions Leixes
North Breakwater whilst headers in the 1892/3 records mention
Leixes South Breakwater.
Despite not being able to specify the exact location of the tide
gauge on both breakwaters, following historical accounts of the
evolution of the port (Table 1) we estimate that between 1890
and 1892 the gauge would have been sheltered within the North
Breakwater inner port. Reports of constant repair and building
works on the North Breakwater, as a result of regular breaching
by violent storms (in 1887, 1888, 1892), is a plausible explanation
for the transfer of the tide gauge from the North Breakwater to the
South Breakwater (registered in the 1892 record header). This
assumption is based on a clear denition of the South Breakwater
as stated on port plans which should not be confused with the Inner South Pier (also referred to as docking pier or tide gauge pier)
that later lodged the gauge and currently forms part of the North
Container Terminal (seen in Fig. 1).
The location of the gauge between 1894 and 1916 is also uncertain. We have been able to conrm the existence of a tide gauge
hut at the end of the inner south pier from a 1917 photo of a ship
collision with the Inner South Pier. Therefore, it seems reasonable
to assume that the tide gauge hut has remained on the Inner South
Pier since 1917.
The coordinates of the present tide gauge station (at the Northwest end of the North Container Terminal) are 41110 1200 N and
8420 1700 W (black circle in the left panel of Fig. 1). It consists of a
oat gauge in a stilling well connected to an Ott RV20 paper chart
recorder and an Ott Thales digital logger, see Fig. 2.
In 1956 the Portuguese Hydrographic Institute (IH) took over
responsibility for the maintenance of the gauge and for data acquisition, previously overseen by the Geographic and Cadastral Institute (IGC; note that IGC was established in 1926 and changing
name to IPCC (Instituto Portugus de Cartograa e Cadastro) in
1994 and to IGP (Instituto Geogrco Portugus) in 2002). During
this transition (19561958) an Ott V (Bosum MKV) tide gauge was
installed remaining in use until January 1983 (based upon an invoice letter). No reference was found for the gauge used from
1983 to 1992. However, an Ott MTG was installed in 1992, which
was changed for the current gauge in 2004.
IH has a dataset of hourly sea levels extracted from the paper
records. From 1956 until 2000 those hourly levels are referenced
to the local datum, i.e. Zero Hidrogrco de Leixes (ZHL described

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I.B. Arajo et al. / Journal of Hydrology 481 (2013) 7684

Table 1
Relevant milestones in the history of the Port and its tide gauge.
Dates

Events

18841892
19141931
19321940
19321942
19561975
19651968
19741979
19741983
1956/71983
19922004
2004-

Start of Port with construction of the north and south breakwater

Commercial harbour
Dock 1
Extension of the north breakwater
Dock 2
Fishing harbour
Container Terminal
Dock 4
OTT V gauge
OTT MTG gauge
OTT RV gauge/thales digital recorder/stilling well changes

below). From 2000, both analogue readings and higher frequency

6-min digital readings are referenced to the hydrographic zero datum or national chart datum (ZH, described below). The main purpose of acquiring these sea level data has been for the prediction of
tides in the harbour (Reis, 2005).
Ancillary data (metadata), essential in the analysis of sea level
records, usually include levelling and gauge maintenance information as well as other relevant details. Leixes gauge metadata prior
to 1956 was handed over to IH in 1956 (Gonalo Cristomo (IGEO),
personal communication) and IH has continued to compile information which is held in the form of loose records. Future interpretation of Leixes data will benet once a clear compilation of all
existing documents held by IH that report on gauge location, gauge
recorders, maintenance and levelling, as well as other relevant
information, are made available.
Leixes tide gauge station is part of the national tide gauge network. It is also listed as station 791 on the Permanent Service for
Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database (Woodworth and Player, 2003)
from which annual and monthly mean sea level (for 19561995)
can be retrieved with reference to the Hydrographic Zero (ZH).
At Leixes ZH is 2.00 m below the national levelling datum
(Cascais Helmert 38). The latter datum was determined in 1938
by the Mean Sea Level (MSL) estimated from 56 yr (18821938)
of sea level measurements from the Cascais tide gauge.
The tide gauge benchmark (TGBM) at Leixes consists of a
round bronze horizontal plate (letter mark 2BT) emplaced to the

northern side of the tide gauge hut (Fig. 3). It was installed by IH
(19561957) substituting the previous existing N1L plate, used
by IGP. Sea level observations prior to 1956 were referred to datum
established by IGP. To the best of our knowledge, benchmarks Ot1,
Ot2 and N1L were used by IGC while M6 and 2BT, amongst others,
are used by IH (conrmed location of some of the benchmarks used
by IH are shown in Fig. 3).
From 1956 till 2000, sea levels have been measured to the local
chart datum known as the Leixes Hydrographic Zero, ZHL. However, after the installation of the digital gauge both recorders were
set to measure with reference to national chart datum, i.e., ZH. The
relationship between ZHL, ZH and the national levelling datum
(NP), are given in Fig. 3. The local ZHL datum is 0.326 m above
ZH and 1.674 m below NP.
Global Positioning System (GPS) equipment was installed by the
Faculty of Science of the University of Porto in September 2008 but
a longer dataset is needed to derive reliable estimates of vertical
stability of the gauge.
Sousa et al. (2011) used satellite based InSAR (Interforometric
Synthetic Aperture Radar) and Multi-Temporal Techniques (MTI)
to evaluate the stability of the Port of Leixes area. The methodology chosen was based on the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers/Multi-Temporal InSAR (StaMPS/MTI), which combines both
PS and SB methods allowing the identication of scatters that dominate the scattering from the resolution cell (PS) and SlowlyDecorrelating Filtered Phase (SDFP) pixels, identied due to the

Fig. 2. Leixes tide gauge at the end of the Container Terminal pier. The tide gauge shelter harbours a digital (Thales) and a paper recorder. Both are linked to the oat by
wires that connect to the stilling well through an opening on the oor below the recorders. The PVC tube inside the stilling well minimises any breaching of the walls.

I.B. Arajo et al. / Journal of Hydrology 481 (2013) 7684

79

Fig. 3. Reference levels and datum for Leixes tide gauge station.

use of interferograms formed only between images separated by

short time and space baselines (SBs). This was applied to 47 ERS1/2 scenes and 19 Envisat scenes covering the Port of Leixes
and, therefore the tide gauge location, between 1992 and 2007. Results estimated rates of 0.35 mm yr1 (with coherence 0.75) and
0.28 mm yr1 (with 0.71 coherence) in ERS and ASAR, respectively.
Moreover, we have applied a linear t to the Sousa et al. (2011)
MTI results, from which a trend was estimated using ordinary
least-squares and standard errors. An offset in the estimation process was included to allow for the difference in height caused by
using two different satellites (ERS-1/2 before 2002 and Envisat
after 2002). An insignicant 0.20 0.24 mm yr1 was found (offset:
0.60 2.16 mm; nominal bias: 0.74 0.69 mm) for the tide gauge
location suggesting stability of the area of land around the station.

3. Data and methodology

3.1. Sea level dataset digitisation
The gauge records from Leixes are fairly continuous, dating
back to 1890 and with main discontinuities occurring within the
rst three decades. From 2004 onwards the quality of the analogue
record declines as a result of several breakdowns and malfunctions
of the logger. Nevertheless, the available digital recordings post
2004 are able to ensure data continuity and have been used for
the 20042008 period.
The 18902004 paper records were scanned into a digital image
format that insured the legibility of all the details on the paper.
Hourly sea levels were extracted from an image display of the digital paper record using a custom-made software program for this
task. A few adjustments were made according to hand written
notes on the records, most related to Daylight Saving Time (DST)
shifts. Before the 1930s the data seem to have suffered from clock
problems or bad clock adjustments when the paper rolls were
changed each week because the records show clearly a tidal residual that varies from week to week after the predicted tides have

been removed. For that reason it was not always possible to verify
if summer time or wintertime was used.
The hourly data were stored in a database following a few adjustments in time according to hand written notes on the records. This
provided a continuous time set of hourly relative sea levels.
3.2. Data quality and editing
The malfunctioning of a conventional stilling well tide gauge
can cause errors as a result of calibration, datum control, sliding
of the pulley cables, obstructions in the well, and especially with
the older mechanical clockwork timing (IOC, 1985; Pugh, 1987).
Nevertheless, if well maintained it has proven to be a reliable
way of recording sea level.
The repeatability of the operator of the software used to obtain
the hourly levels from the scanned paper rolls was tested by comparing a year of extracted hourly values to a second independent
extraction of the same year. This process was also done with other
years, with 20yr intervals, and the results showed that extracted
hourly levels are reproducible with a standard deviation of 1.03 cm.
The repetitive and time-consuming task of selecting hourly values can be another source of operator error. Any detected outliers
were corrected by comparing each year of hourly digitised sea level
observations with a year of hourly sea levels predictions obtained
from the harmonic analysis of a selected year of data unaffected by
DST adjustments.
After the previous procedures, each year of data (with
P300 days) underwent robust editing following the method of
Arajo and Pugh (2008). Non-tidal residual values, obtained after
a harmonic analysis on each individual calendar year of data, were
scrutinised in 10-day blocks to identify measurement errors above
a threshold level of two standard deviations of the residual variability (below this threshold apparent errors were tolerated). Only
those signals that were clearly errors in the measurements were
adjusted by substituting tidal-residual values by corresponding
low-pass ltered values. A second harmonic tidal analysis was then
performed on the adjusted observed values.

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I.B. Arajo et al. / Journal of Hydrology 481 (2013) 7684

The annual and monthly MSLs obtained after the data quality
check and editing described herein are made available with this
paper and also via the PSMSL database.
3.3. Annual mean sea level and adjustment for air pressure
The whole data set of hourly sea level data was divided into calendar years that were analysed with the TASK-2000 tidal analysis
software (Bell et al., 2000). Annual MSL is one of the results obtained from this analysis. However, a realistic estimate of the errors in an annual mean sea level calculation is necessary to
determine if the changes in MSL from year to year are signicantly
different from zero or if they fall within the measurement noise.
The TASK-2000 software ignores the temporal correlation that exists in the data although this dependency needs to be taken into account to obtain a realistically estimated error for the computed
annual mean values.
The properties of this temporal correlation were computed from
tidal residuals using a simple rst order auto-regressive noise
model (Brockwell and Davis, 2002) and resulted in a mean error
of 9 mm which is 69 times increase of the uncertainty of the estimated annual mean sea level compared to the standard error.
MSL response to atmospheric pressure requires a long-term
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) record to cover the length and
time of the sea level record. Version 2 of the 20th Century Reanalysis data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado,
USA, at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ contains global weather
conditions from the year 1891 to 2008 (Compo et al., 2006,
2011; Whitaker et al., 2004). Monthly pressure reduced to MSLP
values were extracted from the 2  2 global grid for the grid
point closest to Leixes. MSLP from 1906 to 2008 shows no trend.
Correlation between detrended annual MSL and detrended MSLP
resulted 16.32 7.9 mm mbar1 trend, within 1 standard error
from the theoretical inverted barometer effect (10 mm mbar1).
The difference is explained by the effect of winds directly correlated with atmospheric pressure (c.f. Mathers and Woodworth,
2001). This observed relation was used to remove the inuence
of the atmospheric pressure from the annual MSL.
4. Results
4.1. Observed sea level
The standard deviation in the observed sea level variations, for
each year of the observed (hourly) sea levels, Fig. 4, is clearly affected by the 18.6yr nodal cycle with an amplitude of 3.2%
(25.9 mm). This is within the 3.7% nodal modulation of the semidiurnal Equilibrium Tide.
A regression model using least squares was t to the observed
sea levels (Fig. 4). A 0.02 mm yr1 decrease is found in the standard
deviation when the nodal cycle is removed. The t residuals (levelt) are given in Fig. 4. Arajo (2006) applied an identical t to the
observed sea level standard deviation from stations along the English Channel, France, Spain and Portugal. Negative trends were
found for Vigo (0.12 mm yr1) and Brest (0.04 mm yr1), consistent with increase in M2 and S2 tidal amplitudes. Positive trends
where found for Newlyn, Santander and Cascais.
4.2. MSL
The estimated annual MSL values together with their corrected
error bars are shown in Fig. 5. The years earlier than 1906 have
been discarded because within each year there was less that 82%
of days with observations (<300 days). A 5 yr moving average is
also shown to visualise the long term changes in MSL more clearly.

Fig. 4. Observed sea level standard deviation (SL STD) with a 18.6 nodal cycle t
(top); and corresponding t residual series (bottom).

Relative MSL over the period of 19062008 has decreased at

an average rate of 0.70 mm yr1 0.27 mm yr1. This result contradicts both global and regional MSL estimates. Negative rates
in MSL have only been reported in Northern Europe (Scandinavia) where Glacial Isotactic Adjustment (GIA) are responsible
for the vertical component of land movement which in turn affect MSL.
The ICE-5G (VM2 L90) model (version 1.3) for PSMSL Leixes
tide gauge site (http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/~peltier/
data.php, 13th August 2012) predicts an average present-day rate
of vertical motion of the solid earth due to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) of 0.23 mm yr1, whilst the predicted present-day
average rate of sea-level rise due to GIA is 0.20 mm yr1 (Peltier,
2004). The GIA inuence on sea level is within the standard error of
the estimated MSL trend for this site and has, therefore, been
neglected.
Long-term trend estimates are known to be affected by the variability in the decadal estimates. Holgate (2007) found different
decadal rates of change during the 50s with highest negative rates
centred in 1964.
Leixes averaged annual MSL and standard deviation estimated
over 10 yr periods conrm that higher decadal MSL averages are
found prior 1970, with the exception of a low decadal average in
1950s (Fig. 5). MSL trends have therefore been estimated
considering:
(i) the 50 yr of data prior and post IH responsibility for the
gauge, i.e. 19061955 and 19562008;
(ii) the period in which the decadal average MSL and standard
deviation decreased, i.e. 19702003/08;
(iii) the 19562003 period, as to avoid any bias introduced by
the 0.326 m levelling adjustment of the digitized levels (ZH
to ZHL) and the changes to the stilling well, both included
in the 20042008 data.
No statistical signicant trends have been found.
Whilst changes in sea levels can occur over different time
scale (e.g. decadal) coherence is expected between neighboring
tide gauge stations at which the regional dynamics (steric and
meteorological) is expected to be similar. Leixes does not show
correlation with neighboring Lagos and Cascais stations in Portugal, nor to Northern Iberian stations (Vigo, Coruna,
Santander).

I.B. Arajo et al. / Journal of Hydrology 481 (2013) 7684

Fig. 5. Annual mean sea level (above ZHL) based on 19062008 hourly sea levels
with a 5yr moving average line.

4.3. Tides
The amplitude and phase of the main tidal constituents were
obtained by harmonic analysis performed on the hourly levels for
each calendar year. Their mean and respective standard deviations
are given in Table 2. Although MSL results are given for 19062008,
those for tides are only shown from 1933, as a result of, for instance, an unexplained 22 (44 min) phase shift in the semi-diurnal lunar component. Note that timing problems do not have a
large effect on the annual mean sea level because they will tend
to average out over the year.
Tides are dominated by M2 with mean amplitude and phase lag
of 104.15 0.68 cm and 74.4 0.9 (relative to local time (UTC)),
respectively. Yearly variability is illustrated in M2, S2 and Sa plots
in Fig. 6. Annual variation of mean sea level, as represented by
Sa, has an average amplitude of 5.21 cm. M2, S2, K2, K1 and O1 results are consistent with those obtained by Reis (2005) from a harmonic analysis of a year of data (31 December 2002 to 30
December 2003).
From the mid 50s, small trends are mostly found in S2 with a very
small amplitude decrease (0.01 0.00 cm yr1) alongside a small
increase in phase (0.1 0.0 yr1). M2 phase lag also increases by
an identical amount but no trends have been found in amplitude.
These trends are inuenced by instrumentation changes from
1992 that increase M2 and S2 amplitudes by 1 cm and 0.1 cm,
respectively, and phase lag by 1.5. The increase in phase is clearly
pronounced after sea level measurements are made inside the PVC
tube installed in the stilling well. If the data after 1992 is disregarded, then M2 and S2 amplitudes decrease by 0.04 0.01 cm yr1
and 0.02 0.00 cm yr1, respectively. Decreases in M2 amplitudes
have also been reported for Brest (Cartwright, 1972; Simon, 1982).
4.4. Extreme sea levels
Reduced annual percentiles of observed sea levels, obtained by
removing the annual median level from each annual percentile,
Table 2
Mean (19332008) amplitude and phase, and their standard deviation (STD), for the
main (>1 cm) tidal constituents at Leixes.

Sa
Ssa
MSf
Mf
Q1
O1
S1
K1
N2
M2
L2
S2
K2

Mean amplitude (cm)

STD

Mean phase ()

STD

5.21
4.54
1.29
1.38
1.93
6.28
1.26
6.92
22.23
104.15
2.42
36.64
10.38

3.08
2.25
0.69
0.94
0.24
0.18
0.48
0.15
0.27
0.68
0.37
0.30
0.22

239.9
146.5
169.3
189.9
266.5
317.2
138.6
58.7
56.0
74.4
89.8
102.2
99.4

67.4
105.5
108.2
86.8
6.9
1.5
159.7
1.0
1.1
0.9
7.8
1.1
1.5

81

were analysed to determine changes in the frequency of measured

sea levels. The reduced level gives a measure of the percentile level
of a year relative to MSL, i.e. by reducing these levels it is possible
to understand if the forcing in the extremes is common to MSL.
Moreover, it removes issues regarding vertical land movement
and datum uncertainties (Woodworth and Blackman, 2004).
The 99.9, 99 and 95 percentile and the 0.1, 1 and 5 percentile
correspond to the highest and lowest sea levels, respectively. Results for 99 and 95 percentile will be particularly interesting as
they take into account >8 h of data (in a year), which will be less
prone to errors.
The interannual variability in all reduced percentile levels is
inuenced by a small nodal modulation (18.6 yr). These levels do
not have similar time dependence to the median. The higher observed sea level levels, within the 99 and 95 percentile, decrease
at 0.09 mm yr1, over the 19062008 period (Table 3). In the reduced levels the decrease is only signicant in the 95 percentile
(0.02 0.01 cm yr1). This reduction is accompanied by an increase
in the reduced 5-percentile (0.03 0.01 cm yr1) over the same
period (Table 3). These results show a decreasing tendency in the
maximum and minimum extreme sea levels.
Non-tidal percentiles were also estimated (Table 3) to be able to
gain further insight into the forcing of these percentile levels disregarding the tidal component. For this we followed identical procedure to Woodworth and Blackman (2004), in which a time series
was obtained by subtracting tidal percentile values from the 99
percentile observed values, both reduced. The difference obtained
(not shown herein) was different from zero. The large sea level variability found at this site is translated in these results suggesting
tides are less of a contributing factor than weather or other oceanic
forcing.
The higher percentile levels in the non-tidal signal have negative trends for the 95 and 99-percentiles and positive trends in
all lower percentiles (Table 3), this can contribute to the decrease
found in the non-tidal residual standard deviations.
4.5. Atmospheric inuences
In addition to the inverted barometer effect on MSL, regional
climatic patterns should also be considered. In the North Atlantic,
sea level is strongly inuence by the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO) (Woolf et al., Wakelin et al., 2003), which is taken as a measure of air pressure gradient and winds affecting Europe. The different phases of the NAO are known to inuence atmospheric
and oceanic heat content, precipitation, salinity and river runoff
(Hurrell and Deser, 2009; Otero et al., 2010; Trigo et al., 2004), contributing towards sea level change via changes in mass and
volume.
The Principal Component (PC) based NAO time series consists of
the leading series of Empirial Ortogonal Functions (EOFs) of annual
Sea Level Pressure (SLP). Winter (DecemberMarch) NAO anomalies, were obtained from the Climate Analysis Section, NCAR, Boulder, USA, (Hurrell et al., 2003), accessed 1-1-2012. The annual MSL
and winter (DJFM) MSL values measure the sensitivity of sea level
to the annual and winter NAO index measured with the assumption that sea level is a linear function of the NAO index. The NAO
action during the winter period accounts for more than 1/3 of
the total variance of Sea Level Pressure (SLP).
There is a 0.4 correlation between (detrended) winter sea levels and winter NAO index (24.9 10.6 mm change in level per
unit winter NAO index).
The negative sensitivity to the NAO index found at Leixes is in
agreement with results from the northern Iberian stations (Woolf
et al., 2003; Fenoglio-Marc et al., 2005). According to Woolf et al.
(2003) in southern Europe, sea level is lower during NAO-positive
years with values for the northern Spanish coast ranging between

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I.B. Arajo et al. / Journal of Hydrology 481 (2013) 7684

Fig. 6. Amplitude (in cm) and phase (in degrees) of M2 and S2 (main semi-diurnal) tidal constituents and annual solar constituent (Sa).

Table 3
Trends in observed sea level and non-tidal percentiles and their reduced trends. Statistically signicant trends are highlighted in bold italics.
Percentile

Observed sea level trend

(cm yr1)

Reduced sea level trend

(cm yr1)

Non-tidal residual sea level trend

(cm yr1)

Reduced non-tidal residual level trends

(cm yr1)

99.9
99
95
5
1
0.1

0.13 0.05
0.09 0.04
0.09 0.03
0.03 0.03
0.06 0.04
0.06 0.05

0.06 0.04
0.02 0.02
0.02 0.01
0.03 0.01
0.01 0.02
0.01 0.03

0.05 0.04
0.04 0.02
0.02 0.01
0.03 0.01
0.05 0.02
0.07 0.03

0.34 0.32
0.79 0.55
2.10 1.16
3.10 1.21
1.43 0.59
1.01 0.42

20 and 60 mm/unit NAO index. This negative response was also

found between annual non-tidal residual levels and the NAO index
(4.73 1.42 mm per NAO index).
5. Discussion
Analysis of this long-term sea level record has revealed an
unexpected decrease in MSL that is contrary to the consistent regional trend pattern of over 2 mm yr1 found by Marcos et al.
(2005) for North Iberian stations, during the second half of the
20th Century. Wppelmann and Marcos (2012) investigated the
importance of the non-climatic contribution of vertical land movement to observed rates of sea level change. After removing that
contribution a sea level rise, in excess of 3.4 mm yr1 (for the past
70 yr), was re-estimated for the northern Iberian coast. Non-climatic contributions have an increasing effect in MSL rates in this
region, however, it is important to note that the period analysed
is short compared to the analysis presented herein.

GIA inuences on sea level have been neglected on the basis

that for this site the predicted average is within the standard error
of the estimated MSL trend. Other local vertical land movement, for
instance from land drainage, have also been neglected following
InSAR data that support the stability of the site.
MSL includes contributions from tides and surges and are affected by changes in atmospheric pressure, wind, density and/or
oceanic/atmospheric circulation. Over the years the tidal amplitude and phase-lag have changed in the Leixes harbour. Correlation between tides and sea level are found when the entire data
series is analysed. During 19062008 M2 decreases with increases
in MSL and non-tidal variations (Section 4.4) at a rate of 0.04 0.01
and 0.20 0.07, respectively, though correlations are weak (<0.4).
Change in MSL affects sea level directly but also modies the
tide by changing the water depth. Depth increases give longer tidal
wavelength hence affecting the tidal pattern with variations in the
tidal levels. Increases in tidal amplitude and decreases in phase in
single inlet systems have also been related to a decrease in bottom

I.B. Arajo et al. / Journal of Hydrology 481 (2013) 7684

friction, changes in bathymetry and to other non-linear effects

(Arajo et al., 2008). Dredging activity can increase depth and
inuence bed roughness, therefore altering bottom friction. The
Port of Leixes can be considered as an enclosed bay with a direct
opening to the ocean with dimension and bottom friction changes
as a result of continued dredging, excavation and construction
work.
In this sense, observed changes in tidal amplitude and phase
were investigated using a barotropic depth integrated tide model,
following Egbert et al. (1994) on a 10  10 m grid for the area.
The bathymetry was assumed constant inside each individual dock
(refer to Fig. 1), while outside the harbour depth smoothly increases with increasing distance from the coast. The open ocean
boundary was forced with the global ocean tide model FES2004
(Lyard et al., 2006) and both a linear and a quasi-linearised quadratic function (Kabbaj and Le Provost, 1980) were implemented
for bottom friction.
Using this model, the effect of the evolution of the harbour (i.e.,
the construction of the docks 14) on the M2 tide, was determined.
In addition to using different harbour geometries, the depth in the
various docks was varied between 2 and 10 m as was the value of
the bottom friction coefcient. For the latter it was important to
use the quasi-linearised bottom friction law because it uses the
Chevy coefcient for which the range is well known and therefore
allows a good estimation of its effect. Neither the geometry of the
harbour, the change in depth or bottom friction generated changes
in the tidal amplitude larger than 0.1 mm nor did they cause significant changes in the phase lag.
The assumption so far has considered a constant density inside
the harbour. However, if water run-off from the river Lea is significant and/or if fresh water discharges from the Douro River reach
the Port, than this assumption no longer holds. Fresh water in
the harbour forced by saline tides outside the harbour will alter
the tidal amplitude observed at the tide gauge. A more elaborate
tide model covering the dynamics of the shelf plus harbour is required to fully understand the changes documented herein.
Though interesting, this is beyond the scope of this study and is
also a limited exercise in view of the scarce (local) data available
to validate such a model.
Meteorologically induced trends for the Northern Iberian station, estimated by Marcos et al. (2005), suggested that in this region the meteorological forcing slightly slows sea-level rise,
whilst the thermosteric effect is seen as responsible for the positive
trends. Approximately 1/3 of difference between stations is attributed to spatial differences in the meteorological forcing.
The series of sea levels obtained after removing the MSL and predicted tide levels from the observed sea levels is dened here as the
non-tidal residual, also known as meteorological surge. Non-tidal
residual standard deviations have decreased by 0.16 0.06 mm yr1
and 0.32 0.12 mm yr1, during 19062008 and 19562008,
respectively. This reduction can be interpreted as a decrease in errors in the sea level observations or a decrease in meteorological
surge inuences on sea level. Assuming that the editing described
in Section 3.2 eliminated most errors then storm surges would be
inuencing the decrease in observed sea levels.
The decreasing tendency for the higher non-tidal percentile levels to decrease while lower percentiles increased (Table 3) is in
agreement with the decrease found in the non-tidal residual standard deviations. Results from the extreme level analysis suggest
that tides contribute less to the changes found in sea level than
weather or other oceanic forcing. The NAO index and inverse
barometer have shown that prevailing weather patterns and atmospheric pressure contribute towards some of the sea level
variability.
Local/regional and seasonal changes in the oceanic circulation
induced by winds and/or upper ocean density gradients may also

83

be contributing to sea level change. Although the contribution

from thermohaline changes induced by poleward ow of warm
saltier water from the south; nearshore circulation related to local
freshwater outows (Douro plume) and Ekman effect (upwelling/
downwelling) may help understand the results obtained herein,
this goes beyond the scope of the present study. Further research,
is needed to understand how sea level is being affected as a result
of steric and mass changes inuenced by changes in the local
atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. Wind setup and tide surge
interactions should also be assessed.
The Leixes series exemplies how interannual and longer variations of sea level can have large effect on trends computed even
from long series. Although this record was long enough to determine long-term trends in sea level, the underlying interannual
and some longer variations are not fully understood to reassure
correct trend estimates. Although the use of the current (available)
data from Leixes is not recommended for long-term (secular)
trend studies, this does not undermine the validity of these data
for climate prediction or seismic, tsunami and coastal studies, taking into account the points stressed throughout this paper.
This rst analysis of the Leixes record is limited by the current
knowledge involving the tide gauge station. Future use of this data
series will benet from any ancillary information brought to light,
specially documenting the gauge location, characteristics and datum. Additionally, relevant information might also be achieved
by digitising the nearby equally long dataset from the nearby Cantareira tide gauge, located at the mouth of the Douro (5 km). The
direct comparison between Cantareira and Leixes records may
contribute to the understanding of the variability found in the later. For shorter and more recent time-scales a cross check is possible between Leixes and Viana do Castelo dastasets (56 km North
of Leixes).
6. Conclusions
Historical sea level (18902004) from paper records of the Leixes tide gauge have been recovered.
MSL between 1906 and 2008 has decreased by 0.70
0.27 mm yr1. This result is neither consistent with the global
mean sea level trend nor with regional neighbouring stations. On
the assumption that the data was not inuenced by vertical land
movement and datum shifts that would affect MSL, we analysed
the contribution of atmospheric forcing and possible changes to
the tides as a result of the signicant changes that occurred to
the Leixes Port.
The NAO index and inverse barometer have shown that prevailing weather patterns and atmospheric pressure contribute to the
sea level variability at this site.
The evolution of the port construction works and changes to the
gauge and stilling contribute to a reduction in the observed sea level standard deviation between 1956 and 2008. Signicant interannual/decadal variability in annual mean sea levels after 1992 is
also probably associated with the changes to the gauge (in the last
decades) and a change to the stilling well (2004). GIA rates and vertical land displacement estimates for this site are not signicant.
The decrease in MSL is believed to be inuenced by: (i) prevailing weather systems in the North Atlantic, especially in the winter,
and local atmospheric pressure; (ii) by a decrease in observed level
standard deviation; and (iii) changes to the gauge and stilling well,
which have reduced the noise in the readings. Furthermore, the
evolution of the port cannot be ignored when trying to understand
sea level change.
Though beyond the scope of this work, further understanding
and quantication of how sea level is affected by steric and mass
changes inuenced by changes in the local and North Atlantic
atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, is needed.

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I.B. Arajo et al. / Journal of Hydrology 481 (2013) 7684

The recovery of this dataset and its analysis has been useful in
documenting the potential sources of errors in the observed sea
levels. Although we do not recommend that all the present (available) data from Leixes be used in long-term (secular) trend studies, these data are of great interest to climate, seismic and tsunami
studies. They should be used taking into account the points
stressed throughout this paper.
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to the Port authority - Associao dos Portos do
Douro e Leixes (APDL) and Eng. Brogueira for their interest and
nancing of the project which enabled the recovery of this historical dataset. We would like to thank Eng. Miguel Lzaro (APDL), Dr.
Joana Reis (Portuguese Hydrographic Ofce) and Eng. Gonalo
Cristomo (IGEO), for assisting with questions regarding the tide
gauge; Eng. Carol Bos for developing the digitization software; Prof.
Philip Woodworth and an anonymous reviewer for their valuable
comments which have helped improve this manuscript.
Support for the 20th Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Ofce of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment
(DOE INCITE) program, and Ofce of Biological and Environmental
Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration Climate Program Ofce.
This work has received support from FTC- Fundao para a
Cincia e Tencologia under PesT-C/MAR/LA0015/2011.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found, in
the online version, at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.
12.019.
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