Chapter 10 Public Opinion and Political Socialization
10.1 Roots of Public Opinion Research
-public opinion what the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time -Walter Lippman Public Opinion (1922) prompted growth of polling - Literary Digest pioneer in use of straw poll (unscientific survey used to gauge public opinion -wrongly predicted that Republican Landon would beat FDR (1936) -three errors: -drew its sample from telephone directories and lists of automobile owners, which oversampled the upper middle class/wealthy -timing: mailed questionnaires early, in September -self-selection : only highly motivated individuals mailed back the cards (22%) -Gallup correctly predicted 1936 election -American National Election Studies (ANES) established 1952, funded by natl govt => conduct surveys before and after midterm and presidential elections (long-term studies of electorate)
10.2 Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion Polls
-push polls a poll that tries to push a certain viewpoint - the intent of push polls is to give respondents some negative or even untruthful information about a candidates opponent so that they will move away from that candidate and twds the one paying for the poll -do not even record results because they are irrelevant -population entire group of people whose attitudes a researcher wishes to measure -random sampling -most use stratified sampling based on census data -divide the population into several sampling regions -randomly select subgroups to sample in proportion to the total natl population -most common method of contact => telephone polls -random-digit dialing survey -pollsters are exempt from fedl and state do-not-call lists because poll taking is a form of constitutionally protected speech
-tracking polls continuous surveys that enable a campaign or
news organization to chart a candidates daily rise or fall in support -in person interviews unintended influence of pollster may lead to interviewer bias -exit polls polls conducted as voters leave selected polling places on Election Day -series of demographic + issue questions to provide independent assessment of why voters supported particular candidates 10.3 Shortcomings of Polling -margin of error -limited respondent options (yes/no) may not accurately reflect the temperature of the public (spectrum, not just positive/negative) -difficulty measuring intensity of feeling about particular issues -lack of interest in political issues => esp. wrt foreign policy 10.4 Forming Political Opinions -political socialization the process through which individuals acquire their political beliefs and values -gender -women hold more liberal attitudes than men abt social issues -more negative views abt war/military intervention than men -race and ethnicity -age -religion -political knowledge ad political participation have a reciprocal effect on one another => an increase in one will increase the other -women have less political knowledge in general than men 10.5 Toward Reform: The effect of Public Opinion on Politics -policy makers respond intently to the often mercurial changes in citizens opinions Chapter 11 Political Parties 11.1 Roots of the Two Party System
11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6
-political party an organized group with shared goals and
ideals that joins together to run candidates for office and exercise political and electoral power -3 separate but related entities 1) office holders who organize themselves and pursue policy objectives under a party label (governmental party) 2) the workers and activists who make up the partys formal organization structure (organizational party) 3) the voters who consider themselves allied or associated with the party (electorate) The Organization of American Political Parties Activities of American Political Parties Party Identification in the Electorate Minor Parties in the American Two-Party System Toward Reform: United or Divided?