DUKE CONSULTING CLUB

UNC UTILITY DATA ANALYSIS

- Divyajeet Siag
- Saket Agrawal
- Sai Aditya Kolluru
- Sreeram Dhurjati Bhargav
- Yijun

Duke Consulting Club, Durham, NC

BACKGROUND
Duke Consulting Team was provided past 2-year utility data (electric, steam, chilled water,
water) from 20 UNC buildings. The goal of the project was to present the trends of successful
energy reductions and/or increases in energy usage for individual buildings by analyzing the
data. The results of this analysis will help to identify the actions that can help achieve significant
energy reduction for UNC buildings.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
The primary factor that affect the utility usage within a building are external factors like
temperature, humidity etc. Seasonal factors also have a large impact on the utilities, with a
significant increase in demand during the college months and decrease in demand during the
holiday months. Considering these factors, we based our analysis to understand the correlation
of utility consumption with respect to change in weather conditions and seasonality factors.

INSIGHTS
CARONILA HALL AND GARDEN HALL
The overall regression coefficient (0.31) for the entire 24 months Utility Data vs HDD for Carolina
Hall Steam was low (Exhibit 1). On analysis, we observed that one trend from Jan 14 to
Nov 14 showed a good regression coefficient value of 0.937 (Exhibit 2). Based on this trend, we
built a model to predict the annual consumption for the year 2015 (based on the actual HDD for
2015). On comparing the Actual Vs Predicted Consumption, the actual value exceeded our
predicted value by over 19% (Exhibit 3), which presents a case for further investigation into the
steam utility for Carolina Hall. Potential annual savings is around $6000.
Similarly, for Garden Hall Electric utility actual value exceeded predicted value by 6% (Exhibit
4,5 and 6), having a potential annual savings of around $1300.

STEELE BUILDING, SOUTH BUILDING, ADMINISTRATIVE BUILDINGS

While analyzing data for Steele Building, South Building, Administrative Office Building, General
Admin Building, we noticed that Administrative Office Building only had electric connection and
was devoid on steam and chilled water. Similarly, General Admin Building did not have steam
supply but had two meters for chilled water and electricity.
While analyzing the trend over a two-year period, we noticed that most of the buildings had a
good regression coefficient of more than .93 (Exhibit 7) except for the chilled water metered data
in South Building, which had a correlation factor of .83 (Exhibit 8). Although this is reasonable,
we checked if there was a change in trend over the 2 year for the building. However, most of the
difference in correlation was coming from 3 outliers, the effect of change was negligible.
McIver Dormitory:
For Chilled water system, the overall trend for 24 months had an r-squared value of 0.74 (Exhibit
01). Within that data, a single trend was found from January 2014 to April 2015 with r-squared
value of 0.90 (Exhibit 02).
Upon comparison, we found that approximately $1818 could have been saved in 2015. The
excess consumption was in the months ranging from May-15 to December-15. (Exhibit 03).
Similar methodology was followed for Steam system. The overall trend for 24 months had an rsquared value of 0.86 (Exhibit 04). Within that data, a single trend was found from January 2014
to September 2015 with r-squared value of 0.91 (Exhibit 05).
Upon estimating the annual consumption using the 5 years average HDD value of 3326 and
comparing it with the annual consumption of 2015, we found that approximately $2279 could
have been saved in 2015. The excess consumption was in the months ranging from October-15
to December-15. (Exhibit 06).
Ruffin Dormitory:

For Chilled water system, two trends were observed having r-squared value of 0.91 (1st trend:
January-14 to May-14) (Exhibit 07) and 0.94 (2nd trend: September-14 to December-15) (Exhibit
08). One noticeable aspect that was found for the trend from January-14 to May-14 was that
units billed for the months of January, February, March and April-14 was 0. We found that this
skewed the trend and we feel that the same cannot be used to estimate the consumption of
subsequent months.
Upon estimating the annual consumption of 2015 using the 2nd trend parameters and comparing
with the actual consumption of 2015, we found that the building consumed approximately 2558
units less (Exhibit 09). We conclude that the either of the two trend found are not a good
representation of the data and the settings needs to be looked into.
For Steam system, the overall trend for 24 months had an r-squared value of 0.84 (Exhibit 10).
Within that data, a single trend was found from January 2014 to September 2015 with r-squared
value of 0.91 (Exhibit 11).
Upon estimating the annual consumption using the 5 years average HDD value of 3326 and
comparing it with the annual consumption of 2015, we found that approximately $16.05 could
have been saved in 2015. The excess consumption was in the months ranging from October-15
to December-15. (Exhibit 12).

Exhibit 1 Carolina Hall Trend for 24 months

Exhibit 2 Carolina Hall Trend Jan 14 to Nov 14

Exhibit 3 Carolina Hall Annual difference and savings calculation

Exhibit 4 Garden Hall Trend for 24 months

Exhibit 5 Garden Hall Trend Jan 14 to Dec 14

Exhibit 6 Garden Hall Possible saving in units and dollars

Exhibit 7 Steele Building Jan- 14 to Feb 15

Exhibit 8 South Building Trend for 24 months

McIver Dormitory
For Chilled water system, the overall trend for 24 months had an r-squared value of 0.74
(Exhibit 01). Within that data, a single trend was found from January 2014 to April 2015 with rsquared value of 0.90 (Exhibit 02).
Upon comparison, we found that approximately $1818 could have been saved in 2015. The
excess consumption was in the months ranging from May-15 to December-15. (Exhibit 03).
Similar methodology was followed for Steam system. The overall trend for 24 months had an rsquared value of 0.86 (Exhibit 04). Within that data, a single trend was found from January
2014 to September 2015 with r-squared value of 0.91 (Exhibit 05).
Upon estimating the annual consumption using the 5 years average HDD value of 3326 and
comparing it with the annual consumption of 2015, we found that approximately $2279 could
have been saved in 2015. The excess consumption was in the months ranging from October15 to December-15. (Exhibit 06).
Ruffin Dormitory
For Chilled water system, two trends were observed having r-squared value of 0.91 (1st trend:
January-14 to May-14) (Exhibit 07) and 0.94 (2nd trend: September-14 to December-15)
(Exhibit 08). One noticeable aspect that was found for the trend from January-14 to May-14
was that units billed for the months of January, February, March and April-14 was 0. We found
that this skewed the trend and we feel that the same cannot be used to estimate the
consumption of subsequent months.
Upon estimating the annual consumption of 2015 using the 2nd trend parameters and
comparing with the actual consumption of 2015, we found that the building consumed
approximately 2558 units less (Exhibit 09). We conclude that the either of the two trend found
are not a good representation of the data and the settings needs to be looked into.
For Steam system, the overall trend for 24 months had an r-squared value of 0.84 (Exhibit 10).
Within that data, a single trend was found from January 2014 to September 2015 with rsquared value of 0.91 (Exhibit 11).
Upon estimating the annual consumption using the 5 years average HDD value of 3326 and
comparing it with the annual consumption of 2015, we found that approximately $16.05 could
have been saved in 2015. The excess consumption was in the months ranging from October15 to December-15. (Exhibit 12).

Cobb Dormitory
For Chilled water system, two trends were observed having r-squared value of 0.90 (1st trend:
January-14 to Dec-14) (Exhibit 13) and 0.90 (2nd trend: February-15 to September-15) (Exhibit
14). The months January-14, October, November and December -15 were found as outliers
and did not conform to either of the trends.
Considering the average CDD data of 5101 and estimating the possible annual consumptions
using the parameters of both the trends, we find that we can save approximately $ 2752
annually if we follow 2nd trend (Exhibit-15).
For Steam system, the overall trend for 24 months had an r-squared value of 0.65 (Exhibit 16).
Within that data, a single trend was found from June 2014 to December 2014 and February
2015 to September 2015 with r-squared value of 0.91 (Exhibit 17). The months of January,
February, March, April and May in 2014, January 2015 were outliers and did not conform to
the trend nor did they have any trend of their own.
Upon estimating the annual consumption using the 5 years average HDD value of 3326 and
comparing it with the annual consumption of 2015, we found that approximately $4292 could
have been saved in 2015. The excess consumption was in the months ranging from October15 to December-15. (Exhibit 18).
Woollen Gym
For Steam system, the overall trend for 24 months had an r-squared value of 0.86 (Exhibit 19).
Within that data, a single trend was found from January 2014 to October 2015 with r-squared
value of 0.90 (Exhibit 20).
Upon estimating the annual consumption using the 5 years average HDD value of 3326 and
comparing it with the annual consumption of 2015, we found that approximately $16336 could
have been saved in 2015. The excess consumption was in the months ranging from November
and December-15. (Exhibit 21).
Note: For Chilled water systems, the price considered was 0.09$/t/hr and for steam systems,
the price considered was 11.24$/t/hr.

Exhibit 1: Mciver Dormitory: Chilled Water

Exhibit 2:

Exhibit 3:

10

Exhibit 4: Mciver Dormitory: Steam

Exhibit 5:

Exhibit 6:

11

Ruffin Dormitory: Chilled Water

Exhibit 7:

Exhibit 8:

Exhibit 9:

12

Ruffin Dormitory: Steam

Exhibit 10:

Exhibit 11:

Exhibit 12:

13

Cobb Dormitory: Chilled Water

Exhibit 13:

Exhibit 14:

Exhibit 15:
14

Exhibit 16: Cobb Dormitory: Steam:

15

Exhibit 17:

Exhibit 18:

Woollen Gym: Steam:

16

Exhibit 19:

Exhibit 20:

Exhibit 21:

17