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Abstract
These are my Lecture Notes for a course in Continuous Time Finance
which I taught in the Summer term 2003 at the University of Kaiserslautern. I am aware that the notes are not yet free of error and the
manuscrip needs further improvement. I am happy about any comment on the notes. Please send your comments via e-mail to ce16@standrews.ac.uk.
Working Version
March 27, 2007
Contents
1 Stochastic Processes in Continuous Time
1.1 Filtrations and Stochastic Processes . . . .
1.2 Special Classes of Stochastic Processes . . .
1.3 Brownian Motion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4 Black and Scholes Financial Market Model
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85
85
93
95
100
5 Portfolio Optimization
105
5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
5.2 The Martingale Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
5.3 The stochastic Control Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Introduction
Mathematical Finance is the mathematical theory of financial markets.
It tries to develop theoretical models, that can be used by practitioners to evaluate certain data from real financial markets. A model
cannot be right or wrong, it can only be good or bad ( for practical use
). Even bad models can be good for theoretical insight.
Content of the lecture :
Introduction to continuous time financial market models.
We will give precise mathematical definitions, what we do understand
under a financial market, until this let us think of a financial market as
some place where people can buy or sell financial derivatives.
During the lecture we will give various examples for financial derivatives. The following definition has been taken from [Hull] :
A financial derivative is a financial contract, whose value at expire is
determined by the prices of the underlying financial assets ( here we
mean Stocks and Bonds ).
We will treat options, futures, forwards, bonds etc. It is not necessary
to have financial background.
Chapter 1
Stochastic Processes in
Continuous Time
Given the present, the price St of a certain stock at some future time t
is not known. We cannot look into the future. Hence we consider this
price as a random variable. In fact we have a whole family of random
variables St , for every future time t. Lets assume, that the random
variables St are defined on a complete probability space (, F, P), now
it is time 0 , 0 t < and the -algebra F contains all possible information. Choosing sub -algebras Ft F containing all the information
up to time t, it is natural to assume that St is Ft measurable, that is
the stock price St at time t only depends on the past, not on the future.
We say that (St )t[0,) is Ft adapted and that St is a stochastic process. Throughout this chapter we assume that (, F, P) is a complete
probability space. If X is a topological space, then we think of X as a
measurable space with its associated Borel -algebra which we denote
as B(X).
(1.1)
stochastic process.
Working with stochastic processes the following space is of fundamental importance :
(Rn )I := M ap(I, Rn ) = { : I Rn } (1.2)
i.e. the maps from I to Rn . For any t I we have the so called evaluation map
evt : (Rn )I Rn
7 (t)
Definition 1.1.4. The -algebra on (Rn )I
cyl := (evs |s I)
generated by the evaluation maps is called the -algebra of Borel
cylinder sets.
Ft := cyl,t := (evs |s I, s t)
defines a filtration of cyl . Whenever we consider (Rn )I as a measurable space, we consider it together with this -algebra and this filtration.
The space (Rn )I has some important subspaces :
C(I, Rn ) := { : I Rn | is continuous }
(1.3)
C (I, Rn ) := { : I Rn | is left-continuous }
(1.5)
(1.6)
Give examples for the fact, that in general the inverse implication
does not hold. But :
Exercise 1.1.3. If in addition to the assumptions of Definition 1.1.7
we assume that (Xt , Ft )tI and (Yt , Gt )tI are continuous and (Yt , Gt )tI
is a modification of (Xt , Ft )tI , then (Xt , Ft )tI and (Yt , Gt )tI are indistinguishable. How can the last two conditions be relaxed such that the
implication still holds ?
The last two definitions in this section concern the underlying filtrations.
Definition 1.1.8. A filtration (Ft )tI is called right-continuous if
\
Ft = Ft+ :=
Fs . (1.7)
sI,s>t
It is called left-continuous if
[
Ft = Ft :=
Fs .
(1.8)
sI,s<t
1 2 : R
(1 2 )() = min(1 (), 2 ())
is a stopping time with respect to the filtration (Ft Gt )tI .
Given a stochastic process and a stopping time we can define a new
stochastic process by stopping the old one. In case the stopping time
is finite, we can define a new random variable. The definitions are as
follows :
Definition 1.2.3. Let (Xt , Ft )tI be a stochastic process and a stopping time with respect to (Ft )tI . Then we define a new stochastic process (Xt )tI with respect to the same filtration (Ft )tI as
Xt () =
Xt () , t ()
X () () , t > ()
(1.10)
(1.14)
(1.16)
(1.18)
Sometimes the Markov property (1.16) is referred to as the elementary Markov property, in contrast to the strong Markov property which
will be defined in a later section. So far, if we just say Markov we
mean (1.16). Markov processes will arise naturally as the solutions of
certain stochastic differential equations. Also Exercise 1.2.1 provides
examples for Markov processes.
Besides martingales and Markov processes there is another class of
processes which will occur from time to time in this text. It is the class
of simple processes. This class is not so important for its own, but is
important since its construction is simple and many other processes
can be achieved as limits of processes from this class. Because of the
simple construction, they are called simple processes.
Definition 1.2.7. An n-dimensional stochastic process (Xt , Ft )t[0,T ] is
called simple with respect to the filtration (Ft )t[0,T ] if there exist 0 =
t0 < t1 < ... < Tm = T and i : Rn such that 0 is F0 , i is Fti1 and
Xt () = 0 () 1{0} +
m
X
i=1
i () 1(ti1 ,ti ] , t, .
(1.19)
Definition 1.3.1. Let (Wt , Ft )t[0,) be an R-valued continuous stochastic process on (, F, P). Then (Wt , Ft )t[0,) is called a standard Brownian motion if
1. W0 = 0 a.s.
2. Wt Ws N (0, t s)
3. Wt Ws independent of Fs .
An Rn valued process Wt is called an n-dimensional Brownian motion with initial value x Rn if
Wt = x + (Wt1 , ..., Wtn ), t [0, )
where Wti are independent standard Brownian motions.
It is not true that given a complete probability space (, F, P), there
exists a standard Brownian motion or even an n-dimensional Brownian
motion on this probability space, sometimes the underlying probability
space (, F, P) is just too small. Nevertheless the following is true :
Proposition 1.3.1. There is a complete probability space (, F, P) such
that there exists a standard Brownian motion (Wt , Ft )t[0,) on (, F, P).
15
Xt = eWt 2 t .
Then (Xt , Ft )t[0,) is a ( continuous ) martingale.
In the following we will take a closer look at the canonical continuous representation (evtW )t[0,) of any standard Brownian motion W (
see page 6 ) defined on (C([0, ), R), cyl , PW ). The measure P W is called
the Wiener measure. Sometimes the Brownian motion W is also called
Wiener process, hence the notation W .
For t > 0 consider the density functions ( also called Gaussian kernels )
of the standard normal distributions N (0, t) defined on R as
p(t, x) =
x2
1
e 2t
2t
A1
p(t1 , x1 )dx1
A2
Am
One proof of the existence of Brownian motion goes like this : Use
the definition in Proposition 1.3.2 to define a measure on ((Rn )[0,) , cyl ).
For this one needs the Daniell/Kolmogorov extension theorem ( [Karatzas/Shreve],
page 50 ). The result is a measure PW and a process on ((Rn )[0,) , cyl , PW )
which is given by evaluation and satisfies all the conditions in Definition 1.3.1 except the continuity. Then one uses the Kolomogorov/Centsov
theorem ( [Karatzas/Shreve], page 53 ) to show that this process has a
continuous modification. This leads to a Brownian motion Wt .
Exercise 1.3.2. Prove Proposition 1.3.2. Hint : Consider the joint density of (Wt0 , Wt1 Wt0 , ..., Wtm Wtm1 ) of any standard Brownian motion
W and use the density transformation formula ( Theorem 11.4. in the
Probability Theory Lecture) applied on the transformation g(x1 , ..., xm ) :=
(x1 , x1 + x2 , ..., x1 + x2 + ... + xm ).
(1.20)
(1.21)
(1.22)
(1.23)
(1.24)
Also we assume once we know the stock price Ss1 at some time s > 0
the future development St1 for t > s does not depend on the stock prices
Su1 for u < s before s. This translates to
wt ws is independent of wu , u < s.
(1.25)
18
2 )t+W
The model of a financial market consisting of one bond and one stock
modeled as in equations (1.18) and (1.24) together with the appropriate
set of trading strategies is called the standard Black-Scholes model.
The valuation formula for Europeans call options in this model is called
the Black-Scholes formula and was finally awarded with the NobelPrize in economics in 1997 for Merton and Scholes ( Black was already
dead at this time ).
1
19
Chapter 2
Financial Market Theory
In this section we will introduce into the theory of financial markets.
The treatment here is as general as possible. At the end of this chapter we will consider the standard Black-Scholes model and derive the
Black-Scholes formula for the valuation of an European call option.
Throughout this chapter (, F, P) denotes a complete probability space
and I = [0, T ] for T > 0.
20
(2.1)
consisting of
1. an Rn+1 valued stochastic process (Xt , Ft ) defined on (, F, P), such
that (Ft )tI satisfies the usual conditions and F0 = (, , P
null-sets)
2. a set which consists of Rm+1 valued stochastic processes (t )tI
adapted to the same filtration (Ft )tI .
The components Xt0 , ..., Xtm of Xt are called tradeable components,
the components Xtm+1 , ..., Xtn are called nontradeable. We denote the
tradeable part of Xt with Xttr = (Xt0 , ..., Xtm ). The elements of are
called trading strategies.
The interpretation of Definition 2.1.1 is as follows : We think of
the tradeable components as the evolution in time of assets which are
traded at the financial market ( for example stocks or other financial
derivatives ) and of the nontradeable components as additional ( nontradeable ! ) parameter, describing the market. The set is to be
interpreted as the set of allowed trading strategies. Sometimes is
also called the portfolio process. For a trading strategy the i-th
component it denotes the amount of units of the i-th financial derivative owned by the trader at time t. In some cases we will assume that
carries some algebraic or topological structure, for example vector
space ( cone ), topological vector space, L2 -process etc. We will specify this structure, when we really need it. The assumption on the 0-th
filtration F0 makes sure, that any F0 measurable random variable on
(, F) is constant almost sure. This describes the situation that at time
t = 0 we know completely whats going on.
Definition 2.1.2. Let Mm,n = ((Xt , Ft )tI , ) be a financial market and
let = (t )tI be a trading strategy, then we define the corresponding value process as
21
Vt () = t Xttr =
m
X
it Xti .
(2.2)
i=0
(2.3)
The numeraire is called a market numeraire if there exists a trading strategy such that (Nt )tI and (Vt ())tI are indistinguishable.
Given a numeraire (Nt )tI we denote with
t := Xt .
X
Nt
(2.4)
2.2 Arbitrage
In a financial market a risk free opportunity to make money is called
an arbitrage. In our setting :
Definition 2.2.1. An arbitrage in a financial market Mm,n = ((Xt , Ft )tI , )
is a trading strategy such that
V0 ()
= 0 almost sure
VT ()
0 almost sure
0 c
1
m
23
24
Making more assumptions on the vector space of trading strategies, one can indeed prove, that the two value processes Vt () and Vt ()
are indistinguishable.
|g|dP < .
(2.6)
To establish the connection between martingale measures and arbitrage, we must restrict ourself to a special class of trading strategies
which is from the real world financial market point of view very natural. Let us assume that at time t0 a trader enters a market ( only
consisting of tradeable assets ) and buys assets according to t0 . Then
the worth of his portfolio at time t0 is
Vt0 () = t0 Xt0 .
Now he chooses not to change anything with his portfolio until time t1 .
Then his portfolio at time t1 still consists of t0 and hence has worth
Vt1 () = t0 Xt1 .
(2.7)
(2.8)
Since he only used the money from Vt1 () and didnt consume any of
the money the two values from ( 2.7 ) and ( 2.8 ) must coincide. Hence
we have
26
(t1 t0 ) Xt1 = 0,
(2.9)
(2.10)
=
(d) X
X
Z(t)
=
dX
k
X
i=0
k
X
i=0
ttr
(ti+1 ti ) X
i+1
ttr X
ttr ).
ti (X
i+1
i
Zl (t)
= 0 a.s .
(d) X
(2.11)
or equivalently since
t = V0 () +
Vt () = t X
k1
X
i=0
= V0 () +
ttr t X
ttr )
(ti+1 X
i
i+1
i
X
Z(t)
V0 () + lim
Zn (t)
+
(d) X
X
Z(t)
= Vt () a.s .
dX
dX,
(2.12)
Zl (t)
= Vt () a.s .
dX
(2.13)
Zl (t)
j | gj .
j dX
(2.14)
Proposition 2.3.1. Let be a strictly self financing trading strategy in a financial market Mm,n = ((Xt , Ft )tI , ) and P P(M), then
the discounted value process Vt () follows a local P -martingale.
28
tj X
tj |Fs ) = EP (t j EP (X
tj X
tj |Ft ) |Fs ) = 0.
EP (tij (X
i
i+1
i
i
i+1
|
{z i
}
=0
This implies
29
EP (
Zl (s,t)
Zl (s)
EP (
Zl (s)
Since
Zl (t)
j |Fs ) = 0, l.
j dX
j |Fs ) =
j dX
Zl (s)
j , l.
j dX
P
j j
j j
j = P
j dX
we conclude
Zl (s) dX +
Zl (s,t) dX
EP (
Zl (t)
j |Fs ) =
j dX
Zl (s)
j , l.
j dX
Building the limit on both sides for l it follows again from the
dominated convergence theorem and the strictly self financing condition that
Though the self financing and strictly self financing condition seems
to be very natural, it is however not so easy to determine whether a
trading strategy is self financing ( strictly self financing ) or
not. The following Exercise shows that in the case of simple trading
strategies this is much easier.
Exercise 2.3.1. Let Mm,n = ((Xt , Ft )t[0,T ] , ) be a financial market
such that only consists of simple processes ( see Definition 1.2.7 ).
P
Show that if is given as t () = 0 ()1{0} + m
i=1 i ()1(ti1 ,ti ] , t,
and a partition 0 = t0 < t1 < ... < tm = T , then is strictly self financing
if and only if
30
(ti+1 ti ) Xttri+1 = 0 i,
To use the strictly self financing condition effectively, we have to
introduce more notation.
Definition 2.3.4. Let Mm,n = ((Xt , Ft )tI , ) be a financial market. A
trading strategy is called tame if there exists c R such that
Vt () c P-almost sure. We denote the set of tame trading strategies in
with t .
The following Theorem shows us the first relation between arbitrage and martingale measures.
Theorem 2.3.1. Let Mm,n = ((Xt , Ft )tI , ) be a financial market and
P(Mm,n ) 6= .Then the financial market Mm,n
s,t = ((Xt , Ft )tI , s t ) is
arbitrage free. Here s t denotes the trading strategies in which
are strictly self financing and tame.
Proof. Let s t such that V0 () = 0 and VT () 0 almost sure.
Let P P(Mm,n ) 6= . Since is strictly self financing it follows from
Proposition 2.3.1 that Vt () follows a local P martingale. Since is
tame and hence Vt () is bounded from below, it follows from Exercise
1.2.6 that Vt () follows a supermartingale. Therefore we have
EP (VT ()) = EP (VT ()|F0 ) V0 () = 0
Hence, since also VT () 0 almost sure we have VT () = 0 almost
sure. This then implies that P{VT () > 0} = 0 and Mm,n
s,t is arbitrage
free.
Example 2.3.1. Martingale Measure for the Black-Scholes Market Let M1,1 = ((Xt , Ft )t[0,T ] , ) be the standard Black-Scholes model
with an arbitrary set of trading strategies modeled on the underlying
probability space (, F, P) such that the numeraire Xt0 = ert represents
1 2
a bank account and Xt1 = e(b 2 )t+Wt the price of a stock. We define a
new probability measure P on (, F) as follows : For any A F let
31
P (A) := EP (ZT 1A ) =
ZT 1A
(2.15)
1 2
32
Proof. From the assumptions and the definition of admissibility it follow that there exist P1 , P2 P(Mm,n ) such that Vt () follows a P1 martingale and Vt () follows a P2 martingale. Because of the strictly self
financing condition and tameness Vt () also follows a P1 supermartingale. Hence
Vt () = EP1 (VT ()|Ft ) = EP1 (VT ()|Ft ) Vt () a.s.
Interchanging the roles of and in the argumentation above completes the proof.
weeks from now for todays price, lets call this price K. Let ST denote
the price of the meat at time T = 3 weeks . Then if ST K you save
ST K Euro. If ST < K then you buy meat at the ( spot ) price in three
weeks and save nothing. Since the price ST is not known you consider
this price as a random variable ST (). The money you save can also be
considered as a random variable via
g() =
ST () K,
0,
if ST K
if ST < K
(2.16)
So g can be thought of some random payment in the future. Something like this is mathematically known as a contingent claim.
Definition 2.4.1. Let Mm,n = ((Xt , Ft )tI , ) be a financial market. A
contingent claim g is an FT -measurable random variable, such that
g 0 a.s. , > 1 s.t. E(g ) < .
In the example above the intention to buy the call on meat was
something like an insurance against the risk that the price of meat
increases. This kind of behavior is called Hedging. Maybe some other
people do not want to give a grill party, but are interested in some profit
by trading in the meat market. They could act as follows. They buy the
call on meat and hope that the meat price increases. Then at time T
they buy the meat from the butcher at price K and sell it immediately
back to the butcher at the price ST and earn ST K. This kind of behavior is called Speculation.
Our aim in the next section will be to define the right prices for such
contingent claim but before let us consider some types of contingent
claims traded at financial markets with at least two tradeable assets
(Xt1 ) and (Xt2 ). We have :
35
Xt1 dt K)+
38
39
still both prices are fair. Nevertheless the question arises, which of
the equivalent martingale measures one should use to price contingent claims. Further research into this direction needs more advanced
methods in functional analysis and topology then presented here.
A different method to price contingent claims is directly related to
hedging strategies.
Definition 2.6.5. let g be a contingent claim in a financial market
Mm,n = ((Xt , Ft )tI , ). We define the Hedging Price of g as
hedge = inf {x R| hedge a s.t. V0 () = x}
and the Super Hedging Price as
shedge = inf {x R| super hedge a s.t. V0 () = x}
The hedging price tells us exactly the minimum investment at time
0 to get the pay out g at time T . This seems to be a quite reasonable
procedure to price contingent claims. The question how these prices
are related to martingale measures and whether they are fair or not
will be answered by the following proposition and corollary.
Proposition 2.6.1. If g is a contingent claim in Mm,n = ((Xt , Ft )tI , )
and a a hedge for g, then the discounted value process Vt () is a
fair price process for g. Furthermore we have
Vt () Xt0 EP ((XT0 )1 g), P P(Mm,n ).
Proof. We have g = VT () a.s. Since is admissible, there exists P
P(Mm,n ) such that VT () is a P martingale. Hence
Vt () = Xt0 Vt () = Xt0 EP (VT ()|Ft )
P (A) := EP (ZT 1A ) =
ZT 1A
1 2
P are equivalent measures. Let us now show that the process defined
by
Wt := Wt t, t
(2.17)
P (Wt Ws x) = EP (1{Wt Ws x} Zt )
1 2
(ts)
|Fs )Zs )
1 2
(ts)
) EP (Zs )
| {z }
=1
R x+(ts)
=
|{z}
z=y(ts)
Rx
1 2
1
ey 2 (ts)
2(ts)
1 2
1
ez+ 2 (ts)
2(ts)
43
y2
e 2(ts) dy
(z+(ts))2
2(ts)
dz
z2
1
p
e 2(ts) dy.
2(t s)
Xt1 = S0 e(b 2
2 )t+W
Using Theorem 2.6.1 we can compute a fair price for this option as
=(I)
44
We denote
ln( SK0 ) + (r + 21 2 )T
.
d1 :=
T
an by substitution of y =
xT
T
(2.18)
we get
Z
y2
1
e 2 dy
2
d1
= S0 (d1 ),
(I) = S0
(II) = e
ln( SK0 ) (r 12 2 )T
WT
K P {
}
T
T
{z
}
|
d1 + T
Since
WT
45
C(S0 , K, ) = S0 (d1 ) erT K (d1 T )
S
ln( K0 )+(r+ 21 2 )T
.
T
X1 K
T
g() =
2K XT1
if
XT1 K
if K XT1 2K
if 2K XT1 3K
if
3K XT1
(2.19)
46
St = S0 e(b 2 )t+Wt ,
where the coefficients b and are assumed to be constants. is
called the volatility of the stock. Let us consider the fair price of a
European Call option given by Theorem 2.7.1 as
(2.20)
(2.21)
for . Using this volatility for the computation in ( 2.24 ) for exactly
this option then of course gives the right ( real world price ). The fundamental problem though is, that when solving ( 2.27 ) in praxis, for
different strike prices K, in general one gets different values for . So
we have = (K). This in fact contradicts the assumption made by the
Black-Scholes model that is considered to be constant. (K) is called
the implied volatility, the graph of (K) is often called volatility smile
for its typical shape. There are various methods to improve the BlackScholes model, and we will learn about some of them in the remaining
of this lecture.
47
Chapter 3
Stochastic Integration
P
tr and P dX
tr for certain
In section 2.3 we defined the sums Z dX
Z
partitions and assumed some kind of convergence of these sums when
|Z| 0. We now want to make this concept more precise. The concept
is called stochastic Integration.
3.1 Semi-martingales
Let us first consider a generalization of the notion of a simple processes.
Definition 3.1.1. An n-dimensional stochastic process (Xt , Ft )t[0,T ] is
called simple predictable if there exist a finite sequence of stopping
times
0 = T0 T1 ... Tm = T
with respect to the filtration (Ft )t[0,T ] and i : Rn such that
|i | < a.s., i is FTi measurable and
Xt () = 0 () 1{0} +
m
X
i=1
Xk
/X
: sup{|Xtk () Xt ()||(, t) I} 0 as k
Y ()
X()
and in this case as before we define X+ := (Xt+ )tI .We define the
corresponding jump processes as
Y := Y Y , X := X+ X.
We can now define, what a semi-martingale is.
Definition 3.1.3. A process Y is called a total semi-martingale if Y
is rcll, (Ft )tI adapted and the map
Z
n
X
i=1
i (YTi+1 YTi )
/X
X k dY
49
XdY .
In the definition above Y was assumed to be R-valued. Most definitions in this chapter correspond to the one-dimensional case but can
be generalized to the n-dimensional case without taking serious effort.
For example an n-dimensional semi-martingale is a Rn vector valued
stochastic process whose components are semi-martingales.
Remark 3.1.1.
1. S is a vector space.
R
2. XdY is bilinear as a function of the integrand X and the integrator Y .
Rt
Rt
3. 0 XdY is Ft measurable and ( 0 XdY )tI is an (Ft ) adapted rcll
stochastic process.
4. S = S(P) actually depends on P, but if Q << P then Z k
Q
/Z
5. S = S((Ft )) also depends on the filtration, but if (Gt ) is a subfiltration of (Ft ) and Y is also (Gt )-adapted, then Y is also a semimartingale with respect to (Gt ), since every elementary process with
respect to (Gt ) is also one with respect to (Ft ).
The following elementary properties of the stochastic integral ( for
elementary processes with respect to a semi-martingale ) are left as an
exercise.
Exercise 3.1.1. Let Y = (Yt )tI be a semi-martingale defined on a
complete probability space (, F, P) with given filtration (Ft )tI and let
X, X 1 , X 2 be elementary processes. Show :
50
1.
Rt
Rt
0
X 1 dY
Rt
0
X 2 dY
Rt
5. If X is bounded and Y is a martingale, then ( 0 XdY )tI is also a
martingale.
The next propositions will give us various examples of semi-martingales.
Proposition 3.1.1. Let Y = (Yt )tI be an rcll (Ft )tI adapted process
s.t. t and a.s. we have
Z
X
|dYs |() := sup{
|Yti+1 Yti | : Z(t) : 0 = t0 < t1 ... < tm = t} <
Z(t)
XdY t | = |0 Y0t +
If X k
tions,
|0 ||Y0t |
sup
(,t)I
/ X then X k X
n
X
i=1
i (YTti+1 YTti )|
n
X
i=1
|i ||YTti+1 YTti |
|dYs |)
51
(X k X)dY t | > )
Z t
k
|dY t |) > ) = 0
lim P( sup |Xt () Xt ()|)| (|Y0 | +
n
(,t)I
{z0
}
|
{z
} |
<
a.s.
0 as k0
that for any > 0 we have lim P(|
n
P(|
XdY | ) P(|
P(|
lim P(|
XdY | , Sn = ) + P(|
Now let X k
XdY | , Sn < )
/ X i.e. X k X
(X X)dY | )
lim P(|
|
52
/ 0 . Then n
The statement of the proposition now follows from limn P(Sn <
) = limn P(Tn t) = 0.
Definition 3.1.4. Let Y = (Yt )tI be a martingale. We say Y is a
R
1. L2 (P)-martingale if t EP (Yt2 ) = Yt2 dP <
R
2. L2 (P )-martingale if EP (Y ) = I Y 2 d(P ) <
i=0
( sup
( sup
(,t)I
(,t)I
53
X k dY t
X k dY t
L2 (P)
XdY .
XdY
Hence Yt is an L2loc (P)-martingale and by Proposition 3.1.3 this implies that Y is a semi-martingale.
54
55
t I : sup0st |Xsk Xs |
/0
Xk
ucp
/X
The following proposition shows that we can get any lcrl process as
an ucp limit of elementary processes.
Proposition 3.2.1. Let X be an lcrl adapted process. Then there exists
ucp
/X .
a sequence X k of elementary processes, such that X k
Proof. As before we define an increasing sequence of stopping times as
n := inf{t : |Xt | n}.
We have limn n = and hence
=0
0st
z }| {
Xs | ) lim P( sup |Xsn Xs | )
n
0sn
|
{z
}
=0
n st
lim P(n t) = 0
ucp
0 := 0, n+1
:= inf{t|t > n and |Zt Zn | > } n.
Z :=
X
n=0
Zn 1[n ,n+1
)
56
|Zt Zt | a.s. t I
and hence that Z Z uniformly and bounded 0. We define an
lcrl process Z as
Z := X0 1{0} +
X
n=0
Zn 1(n ,n+1
].
X := X0 1{0} +
k
X
n=0
1/k
Clearly X k E and for k > t we have Xsk = Zs 0 s t. Hence
we get
0st
1/k
ucp
/X .
ucp
Rt
/(
XdY )tI .
X k dY | }
P( sup |
0st
X dY | ) = P( sup |
0st
= P( sup |
0st
= P( sup |
0st
k s
Z0 s
Z0
X k dY | )
X k 1[0,k ] dY | )
X k 1[0,k ] dY s | ) 0 as k .
| {z }
E
/0
R
E
/ 0 ( t X k dY ) ucp
/ 0 . Now let X k ucp / 0
This shows that X k
tI
0
with X k E. Let > 0, > 0, t > 0. It follows from above that there exRs
ists > 0 s.t. whenever sup(,t)I |Xt ()| we have P(sup0st | 0 XdY | >
) < /2. Define stopping times
k := inf{s : |Xsk | > }.
We define
k := X k 1[0, ] 1{ >0} .
X
k
k
k E and sup(,t)I |X
tk ()| . If k t then
Then X
sup |
0st
k dY | = sup |
X
0st
X k dY |.
Hence we have
P( sup |
0st
s
k
X dY | > ) P( sup |
0st
s
0
58
trary adapted lcrl process X as a limit of integrals of elementary processes. The following lemma shows that this limit indeed exists.
Lemma 3.2.1. Let X n E be a sequence of elementary processes s.t.
R
ucp
/ X where X is lcrl adapted. Then t the sequence t X n dY
Xn
0
converges in probability.
Rt
Proof. Applying Lemma 15.3 Prob. Theory, we have to show that 0 X n dY
is a Cauchy-sequence in probability. For this let > 0, > 0. For any
> 0 and m, n N we have
P(|
X dY X dY | > ) P(|
+ P( sup
0st
0st
|Xsm
Xsn |
> )
Furthermore, since X n
find n0 N s.t.
ucp
n
/ X sup
0st |X X|
/ 0 we can
Since
{ sup |Xsn Xsm | > } { sup |Xsn Xs | > /2} { sup |Xsm Xs | > /2}
0st
0st
0st
we have m, n n0
59
P( sup |Xsn Xsm | > ) P( sup |Xsn Xs | > /2) + P( sup |Xsm Xs | > /2)
0st
0st
0st
< /4 + /4 = /2.
Hence m, n n0 we have
P(|
t
m
X dY
X n dY | > ) < /2 + /2 = ,
Rt
0
X n dY is indeed a Cauchy-sequence
XdY := P lim
k
X k dY
0
ucp
W dW
/X
where W is a Brownian-motion. For this we will make use of the following lemma.
Lemma 3.2.2. Let Zn : 0 = tn0 < ... < tnkn = t be a sequence of partitions
such that limn |Zn | = 0 then
X
i
Proof. Define X n :=
i (Wti+1
n
Xn t =
(Wtni+1 Wtni )2
X
i
/t.
we have
Wtni+1 Wtni
pn
G with G N (0, 1).
ti+1 tni
Gi (G2 1)(tni+1 tni ).
X
X
E((X n t)2 ) = E((
Gi )2 ) =
E(G2i )
i
= E((G 1)
X
i
(tni+1 tni )2 )
E((G 1) ) |Zn | t 0 as n
|
{z
} |{z}
<
This implies X n
L2 (P)
/t.
R
Let us return to our example W dW . We know that W S and
also that W is continuous, in particular lcrl. Hence this integral is well
61
defined. Let us take a sequence of partitions Zn : 0 = tn0 < ... < tnkn <
s.t. limn |Zn | = 0 and limn tnkn = . We define
X n :=
X
i
ucp
/W .
We compute
Z
X n dW =
X
i
1X
1X t
(Wttni+1 + Wttni )(Wttni+1 Wttni )
(Wtni+1 Wttni )(Wttni+1 Wttni )
2 i |
{z
} 2 i
=(Wttn
i+1
)2 (Wttn )2
i
1 2
1X
=
Wtnk t
(Wtni+1 t Wtni t )2
2 | {zn } 2 i
|
{z
}
Wt2
t ( Lemma 3.2.2 )
(3.2)
This result is under some aspect very interesting and shows very
good how stochastic integration is different from ordinary integration,
R
where we have xdx = 21 x2 . The additional term 21 t comes from
Lemma 3.2.2 and may surprise those, who prefer deterministic thinking. We will later see that from the probabilistic point of view, its existence is very natural. Let us now state ( without proof ) some properties
of the stochastic integral.
Proposition 3.2.3. Let X be an adapted lcrl process and Y S. Then
R
R
1. For any stopping time we have 0 XdY = 0 X 1[0, ] dY =
R
R
means integration over the whole parameter
XdY
where
0
0
set I.
62
R
2. ( XdY )s = Xs (Y )s , hence if Y is a continuous semi-martingale,
R
then XdY is a continuous process.
3.
XdY
A = {|X() = X(),
Y () = Y ()}.
Then
XdY and
5. Associativity :
above we have
Y coincide on A.
Xd
as
XdY is itself a semi-martingale and with X
Xd
XdY =
XXdY.
The following proposition is a generalization of statement (5) in Exercise 3.1.1. in case Y is an L2loc (P)-martingale.
Proposition 3.2.4. Let Y be an L2loc (P)-martingale and X adapted and
R
lcrl. Then XdY is also an L2loc (P)-martingale.
c2 E((Ytk
nk +1
63
i+1
)2 ) c2 E(t2 )
where the last two inequalities are implied by Exercise 3.1.2 and
Rt
the Jensen inequality. Hence the sequence 0 X k dY is bounded in L2 (P)
and so is uniformly integrable. Hence by Exercise 1 Sheet 7 we have
Z t
lim E( X k dY |Fs )
k
Z s0
= lim
X k dY
k 0
Z s
=
XdY
Z t
E( XdY |Fs ) =
0
Xin (Y i+1 Y i )
64
ucp
X dY .
X dY
Y dX.
(3.3)
[X] := [X, X] = X 2
X dX. (3.4)
(3.5)
i (X
n
i+1
X i )(Y i+1 Y i )
ucp
/ [X, Y ] .
(3.7)
(X 2 )kn =
Pkn 1
i=0
(X 2 )i+1 (X 2 )i
ucp
/ X2 .
(3.8)
i+1
n
X i )
i Xi (X
ucp
X dY
(3.9)
i+1
X i )2
i (X
ucp
/ X2 2
X dY = [X] .
In the sum above, any summand is positive and the greater the
index t in [X]t the more summands are involved in the sum. Hence it
is clear that the process [X] is increasing a.s. and in particular of finite
variation on compacts. That it is adapted follows immediately from the
definition and the corresponding properties of the stochastic integral.
X dX = X X.
Hence
66
(X)2 = (X X )2
= X 2 2XX + X2
= X 2 X2 + 2X (X X)
= (X 2 ) 2X X
and
[X] = (X ) 2
X dX = (X)2 .
(X)s
0st
67
(3.11)
([X])s
0st
(X)2s
0st
= [X]t X02
(X)2s .
0<st
Exercise 3.3.2. Show that any rcll process of finite variation on compacts is pure quadratic jump.
Corollary 3.3.1. Let (Wt )t[0,) be a Brownian motion. Then (Wt ) is
of infinite variation on compacts. More generally any continuous semimartingale s.t. [X] is not constant a.s. is of infinite variation on compacts.
R
Proof. By definition X 2 [X] = 2 X dX and from Corollary 3.2.1 it
follows that this is a local martingale. We follow from Proposition 3.2.3
that
X dX = X X 0.
= [X X , X X ]
[X]
= [X , X ] 2
[X , X ]
| {z }
+[X , X ]
=[X,X] =[X ]
= [X] [X] = 0,
0 and hence X
which together with Lemma 3.3.1 implies that X
constant on [, ] [0, ).
Proposition 3.3.5. Let X, Y be L2loc (P) martingales. Then [X, Y ] is the
unique adapted rcll process A of finite variation on compacts, s.t.
69
1. XY A is a local martingale.
2. A = XY and A0 = X0 Y0 .
Proof. It follows from Proposition 3.3.1 that [X, Y ] is of finite variation
on compacts and adapted. Let us now show that [X, Y ] indeed satisfies
conditions (1.) and (2.) above. By definition
[X, Y ] = XY
X dY
Y dX,
and it follows from Proposition 3.2.4 that XY [X, Y ] is a local martingale. Hence condition (1.) is satisfied. It follows from Proposition
3.3.2 that (2) is also satisfied. Now choose A = [X, Y ] and suppose B is
another process satisfying the conditions from above. Then the process
A B = (XY B) (XY A) is a local martingale and
(A B) = A B = XY XY = 0.
Hence A B is a continuous local martingale with (A B)0 = A0
B0 = 0. Since A B is of finite variation on compacts it follows from
Exercise 3.3.2 that [A B] = 0.It then follows from Lemma 3.3.1 that
A B 0, hence A = B, which shows the uniqueness part in the
proposition.
The proposition above can be quite useful in determining the process [X, Y ].
Exercise 3.3.4. Let X be an L2 (P)-martingale, then E(Xt2 ) = E([X]t ).
The next two propositions show how to compute the quadratic variation between two stochastic Integrals. We will omit the proofs. They
can be found in the book [Protter].
Proposition 3.3.6. Let Y1 , Y2 S and X1 , X2 be lcrl adapted processes.
Then
70
Z
Z
Z
[ X1 dY1 , X2 dY2 ] =
X1 X2 d[Y1 , Y2 ]
Proof. [Protter], page 68.
Proposition 3.3.7. Let Z be rcll adapted and X, Y S. Let Zn : 0
0n ... knn be a sequence of random partitions tending to the identity,
then
P
i+1
n
X i )(Y i+1 Y i )
i Zi (X
ucp
Z d[X, Y ] .
St = e(b 2
2 )t+W
71
1
f (Y )dY +
2
f (Yt ) = f (Y0 ) +
f (Y )d[Y ]c
0
0
X
+
(f (Ys ) f (Ys ) f (Ys )(Y )s ).
0<st
1
f (Y ) dY +
2
f (Y )d[Y ].
f (Yt ) f (Y0 ) =
=
+
kX
n 1
i=0
kX
n 1
i=0
kX
n 1
i=0
n ) f (Y n )
(f (Yi+1
i
n
f (Yin )(Yi+1
Yin )
n
f (Yin )(Yi+1
Yin )2 +
kX
n 1
n , Y n ).
R(Yi+1
i
i=0
72
Pkn 1
i=0
Pkn 1
i=0
n
f (Yin )(Yi+1
Yin )
n
f (Yin )(Yi+1
Yin )2
R(Y
n
i+1
i=0
, Y )| sup r(|Y
in
n
i+1
Rt
0
1
2
Furthermore we have
kX
n 1
Rt
0
Y |)
in
f (Y )dY
f (Y )d[Y ]
kX
n 1
i=0
n
(Yi+1
Yin )2 ,
where the second expression on the right side converges in probability to [Y ]t . For each fixed the path s 7 Ys () is continuous
and hence uniformly continuous on the compact interval [0, t]. Since
n
n
limn supi |i+1
in | = 0 this implies limn supi |Yi+1
Yin | = 0 and
hence using the properties of the function r
n
lim sup r(|Yi+1
Yin |) = 0.
Pkn
i=0
n , Y n )|
R(Yi+1
i
/0.
1 t X 2
i
f (Yt ) = f (Y0 ) +
f (Y )dY +
f (Y )d[Y i , Y j ]c
i
i xj
x
2
x
0 i=1
0 i,j=1
n
X
f (Ys )(Y )s ).
+
(f (Ys ) f (Ys )
xi
i=1
0<st
73
X dY
:=
1
X dY + [X, Y ]c .
2
f (Y ) dY +
0st
f : R2 R
(x, y) 7 ex 2 y
d(
Z
1
1
1
) = Zd(
)+
dZ + d[Z,
].
E(X)
E(X)
E(X)
E(X)
1
E(X)
75
1
1
1
) = (E(X))1 dX + E(X)1 d[X] + E(X)1 d[X]
E(X)
2
2
1
= E(X) (dX + d[X]).
Z
d(
) = E(X)1 (ZdX + Zd[X] + |{z}
dZ d[Z, X] = 0.
| {z }
E(X)
d(
=ZdX
=Zd[X]
1
1
dE(Y ) = dZ = dX
E(Y )
Z
76
N t = Mt
X
1
1
d[Z, M ]s
( )s (Z)s )(M )s
Zs
Z
0st
(X)s (Y )s .
0<st
X
i
(X
n
i+1
in
X )(Y
n
i+1
in
n
i+1
in
) sup |Y
Y | |dX| 0
i
|
{z
} | {z }
<
0 continuity !
X
i
77
(3.12)
n
We can assume that between in and i+1
X and Y jump at most one
time. Then
X
X
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
(X i+1 X i )(Y c,i+1 Y c,i ) =
(X i+1 X i )(Y i+1 Y i
i
X
n
n
n
n
(X i+1 X i )(Y i+1 Y i
n
in <si+1
X
i
(X i+1 X i )
|P
{z
}
n <s n (X)s )
i
i+1
{z
(Y )s )
n
in <si+1
P
0<st (X)s (Y )s
which shows that the expression on the left side in (3.12) also converges to [X, Y ]c and hence [X, Y c ] = [X, Y ]c .
dQ
Mr dQ =
Mr
dQ =
dP
A
A
Mr Zr dP.
Hence we have
Mt dQ =
Ms dQ
Mt Zt dP =
78
Ms Zs dP
(Y )s )
which implies
EQ (Mt |Fs ) = Ms EP (Mt Zt |Fs ) = Ms Zs .
Z dM +
M dZ
(3.13)
(3.14)
1
d[Z, M ] +
Z
1
1
[Z, M ]d( ) + [[Z, M ], ].
Z
Z
let us define
:=
N
1
[Z, M ]d( ).
Z
(3.15)
We have
1
[Z, M ]t
Zt
=
=
|{z}
Lemma 3.5.1
FV
z }| {
1
t + [[Z, M ], 1 ]t
d[Z, M ]s + N
Z
Z
Z s
X
1
1
t +
d[Z, M ]s + N
( )s [Z, M ]s .
Zs
Z | {z }
0st
(Z)s )(M )s
79
t + Mt
N
= Mt
X
1
1
t
d[Z, M ]s N
( )s (Z)s )(M )s
Zs
Z
0st
X
1
1
d[Z, M ]s
( )s (Z)s )(M )s
Zs
Z
0st
X
1
1
d[Z, M ]s +
( )s (Z)s )(M )s
Zs
Z
0st
Remark 3.5.1. If in the setting of the Girsanov Theorem either the local
martingale part M under P or the density process Z is continuous, then
N]
N = M [Z,
where Z =
1
dZ
Z
= Z.
satisfies E(Z)
The Girsanov Theorem tells you, how you can decompose a semimartingale in its local martingale part and its finite variation part after
a change of measure. The following proposition shows how to apply the
Girsanov Theorem effectively in the Brownian motion setting. In fact
this proposition is also sometimes called the Girsanov Theorem.
Proposition 3.5.1. Let W be a d-dimensional Brownian motion on
(, F, P) with respect to the filtration (Ft ). Let H be a lcrl adapted dR
dimensional process such that the local martingale E( HdW ) is in
fact a martingale, then the process defined by
80
Xt := Wt +
Hs ds
1
d[Z, W ]s
Zs
Zs Hs d[W, W ]s =
Zs Hs ds.
0
Rt
This implies that Xt = Wt + 0 Hs ds = Nt is a continuous local marRt
tingale under Q. Since 0 Hs ds is of finite variation on compacts we
have [X]t = [W ]t = t and the proposition follows from the Levy characterization of Brownian motion.
Z
+ (E(
|dAs |2 ))1/2 .
dY (X, X) := (E(
Z
1/2
s ||dAs |2 ))1/2 .
|Xs X
dY
XdY ) ) = ||
XdY ||H2
Z
= E(
Xt2 d[Y ]t ).
XdY is a martingale. It
Z
XdY ) ) = E(lim[ XdY ]t )
t
Z t
= E(lim
Xs d[Y ]s )
t
0
Z
= E(
Xs d[Y ]s )
2
83
Y =
XdW.
84
Chapter 4
Explicit Financial Market
Models
In this chapter we give explicit models for financial markets. Of course
we can only present some of the large variety of financial models, but
we try to give at least some example for any class of market model, such
there is generalized Black Scholes, diffusion type stochastic volatility
and markets with jump components. Throughout the whole chapter
the triple (, F, P) stands for a complete probability space.
85
Xt0
Xti
Z t
= exp( rs ds)
0
X0i exp(
(bis
X
1X 2
2
ij,s )ds +
ij,s
dWsj ) , i {1, .., n}
2 j=1
j=1
Here (rt ), (bt ) and (t ) are scalar resp. vector resp. matrix valued
predictable ( with respect to the filtration (F)t ) stochastic processes
which are pathwise bounded. We do further assume that there exists a
constant K > 0 such that ||t x|| K||x|| for all x Rm . This property
is often called uniform coercitivity. using the Ito-formula we can write
the price-processes in differential form :
dXt0 = Xt0 rt dt
dXti
X0i
(bit dt
m
X
j=1
2
ij,t
dWtj ) , i {1, .., n}.
i = X i (X 0 )1
Application of the Integration by parts formula on X
t
t
t
gives
t0 = 0
dX
ti = X
0i ((bit rt ) +
dX
m
X
j=1
2
ij,t
dWtj ) , i {1, .., n}.
RT i
0
(t Xti )2 dt < a.s.
|
|dt
<
and
t
0
0
RtP
= dX
self-financing
2. Vt () = t Xt = 0 ni=1 it dXti d( X)
1.
RT
|Ft ) denote
market. Assume that P P(MgenBS ) and let Zt := EP ( dP
dP
the corresponding density process. Clearly Z is a strictly positive martingale with respect to the Brownian filtration, hence by Theorem 3.7.1
0 1 is a martingale in any case but for X
i for 1 i n
continuous. X
to be a local martingale under P , it follows from the Girsanov theorem
( Theorem 3.5.1 and Remark 3.5.1 ) that we must have
i X
0 = M i [Z,
M i]
X
(4.1)
i = X
0i + M i + Ai is the decomposition of X into initial
where X
value, local martingale part and finite variation part under the meaR
sure P ( see Theorem 3.6.1 (3) ) and Z = Z1 dZ. Since Z is also a local
martingale with respect to the Brownian filtration, by Theorem 3.7.1 (
Martingale Representation Theorem ) there must be an m-dimensional
predictable process such that
dZ = dW =
m
X
j dW j .
(4.2)
j=1
m
X
j=1
i as
which we can use to compute dX
87
ij,t tj dt
(4.3)
m
m
X
X
j
j
i
i
dXt = Xt (
ij,t t dWt
ij,t tj dt).
j=1
(4.4)
j=1
Since the decomposition into initial value, local martingale part and
finite variation part is unique by comparison with the expression for
i on the previous page we must have bit rt = Pm sigmaij,t tj for
dX
j=1
1 i n. Using vector notation we can write this as
t t = rt bt a.s t [0, T ]
where rt = (rt , ..., rt )T is the vector which has rt in any component.
| {z }
m
T (b r) 6= 0
on A, where r denotes the vector with all entries equal to r. Let us
define a new process i as
i :=
1
sgn(T (b r)) i 1A for i = 1, .., n
i
Xt
89
d(Vt ()) =
n
X
ti
ti dX
i=1
n
X
ti ((bit
ti X
i=1
= 1A
n
X
i=1
rt )dt +
m
X
ij,t dWtj )
j=1
X
1 i i
((b
r
)dt
+
sgn( (b r))t i X
ij,t dWtj )
t
t
t
Xt
j=1
i
n
n
X
X
(
it ij,t ) dWtj
j=1
| i=1 {z
=( T )j =0 on A
Rt
Rt
Clearly Vt () = 0 dVs () = 0 1A |T (b r)|dt 0 for all 0 t T
E(VT ()) = E(
1A |Tt (bt rt )|dt
Z 0
=
1A |Tt (bt rt )|d( P) > 0.
[0,T ]
= Wt
s ds
ti = X
ti
dX
ij,t dWtj .
j=1
RT
0
rt dt
g) < .
(4.5)
RT
RT
0
rt dt
g|Ft ).
(4.6)
It follows from Theorem 3.7.1 that there exists a predictable Rn valued stochastic process H such that
g =
H dW.
(4.7)
(4.8)
s := Hs
s1
is
n
X
k=1
1
Hsk
ki,s
, 1 i n.
(4.9)
Then we have
n
X
si
is dX
i=1
n
X
is
j=1
i=1
n
X
n X
n
X
Hsk
j=1 k=1
n
X
i dWsj
X
| s{zij,s}
ij,s
n
X
1
(
ij,s ) dWsj
ki,s
| i=1 {z
=kj
Hsj dWsj = d
gs .
j=1
P
j . We show that = (0 , 1 , ..., n ) is a
we define 0s := gs nj=1 js X
s
self-financing trading-strategy. We have
t = (
Vt () = t X
gt
n
X
j=1
tj ) 1 +
jt X
n
X
tj = gt
jt X
j=1
n
X
i=1
t.
ti = t dX
it dX
|{z}
0 =0
dX
t
RT
VT () = VT () XT0 = gT e
rt dt
= EP (g e
RT
0
rt dt
RT
|FT ) e
rt dt
= g.
92
2 0t
t :=
1 <tT
3 <tT
with probability 1
with probability 1/2
with probability 1/2
:=
X01
Z t
Z
Z
1 t 2
exp( s dWs
ds) = E( dW )t .
2 0 s
0
93
PF W = PFTW
T
P (T = 1) = p
P (T = 3) = 1 p
R
for any 0 < p < 1 then P P and P P(M) ( E( dW ) remains a
martingale under P . It is not hard to show, that the value p determines
the martingale measure uniquely and hence that
P(M)
= (0, 1)
where the right hand side denotes the open interval. Since martingale measures exist, the market above is arbitrage free. Is it complete
? For this, let us consider the contingent claim g = T . Since (t ) is also
a martingale with respect to P ( easy exercise ! ) we have
t = E(g|Ft ).
Assume now that g could be hedged, i.e. there would exist
such that T XT = T . Since must be self-financing we have t Xt =
Rt
dXs and this is a martingale under P. Hence
0 s
t Xt = E(T XT |Ft ) = E(g|Ft ) = t .
R
Since ( dWs )s = s (W )s 0 we have that (Xt ) is continuous.
94
R
Hence (t Xt ) = ( s dXs )s = s (X)s 0 and t Xt = t is continuous with respect to t. This is a contradiction, since t jumps at time
. Hence such a trading strategy can not exist and M is not complete. From a rational point of view, the non-completeness is caused by
the extra randomness induced by the volatility and the fact, that this
randomness cannot be traded. The same situation occurs in the more
elaborate stochastic volatility models in the next section.
Exercise 4.2.1. Study how the different values of p determine different
values for the fair price of a European call option.
: Bt
Stock
: St
Volatility
: t
where the Bond and the Stock is tradeable, but the volatility is not.
For the trading strategies we assume the same conditions as in section
4.1. To make this model more precise, we assume
Bt = exp(rt)
St
Z t
Z t
Z t
1 2
1
= S0 exp( (b t )dt + a
t dWt + a a
t dWt2 )
2
0
0
0
(4.10)
Clearly the coefficients of 1.) and 2.) satisfy the assumptions in Theorem 4.3.1 (1) and (4) corresponds exactly to the second case of Theorem
4.3.1. The theorem cannot be applied to equation 3.) however, since the
96
S = M [M, Z]
s dWs ]t
dP
{P |
dP
= E(
dW) s.t.
rb
= a s1 + as2 }.
t
Under the assumption that we have chosen an equivalent martingale measure for our stochastic volatility model, let us now discuss,
97
how to compute fair prices, when there is no closed form solution for
the volatility process. The keywords are approximation and simulation. To solve the stochastic differential equation we first approximate
its solution in the same way as in the case of ordinary differential equation ( Euler method ) and then simulate the approximated solution and
use the Monte Carlo method to compute an approximation of the fair
price of a contingent claim. The approximation procedure we discuss
here is called the stochastic Euler scheme. This is the easiest approximation scheme. For more elaborate schemes see [?]. Assume now that
X is given as the solution of
dXt = (Xt )dt + Xt dWt , X0 = s, t [0, T ].
Let us assume that N >> 1 so that :=
T
N
<< 1. Then
t+
t
t+
N (0,)
where the second factor on the right side of the second equation is
a standard normally distributed with expectation zero and variance
distributed random variable. Hence we get
X(n+1) Xn + (Xn ) + (Xn )(W(n+1) Wn ).
We use this relationship to implement a recursive scheme. Define
0N
X
:=
N
(n+1)
X
:=
x
N
N
N
n
n
n
X
+ (X
) + (X
)Zn
Zn i.i.d N (0, )
n
1, .., N.
98
t i N
N
N
tN := X
i
i
X
+
(X(i+1) X
).
In any way, this procedure gives us a sequence of stochastic pro N that can easily be simulated on the computer. We would
cesses X
N X in some sense ( a.s., ucp, in
wish, that if N we have X
probability for the final value...). The following Theorem tells us more.
Theorem 4.3.3. Under the assumptions of Theorem 4.3.1 we have
N |) K
E(|XT X
T
1
N
N L / XT . We speak of strong
for some constant K > 0. Therefore X
T
convergence of order 1/2. Furthermore for each function g : R R of
polynomial growth rate and only finitely many discontinuities, we have
TN )) K 1
E(g(XT )) E(g(X
N
for some other constant K > 0. In this case we speak of weak convergence of order 1.
We do not give a proof of this theorem. Clearly we think of g from
above as a contingent claim. Given a stochastic volatility model on
begins by simulation of the process (t ) which results in a process (
t ).
This process is then used in a second simulation for the stock price
process :
N
i Zi
Si+1
:= SiN + SiN r + SiN
where Zi i.i.d N (0, ) and independent from the first Zn used for
99
ng(STN,i )
n i=1
is a good approximation for the fair price of g. This method can also
be used to price options in the standard Black Scholes model ( which by
the way is a stochastic volatility model with dt = 0, t to compute
fair prices for options where there is no closed form solution available.
A good practical exercise is :
Exercise 4.3.1. Check the quality of the Monte Carlo method by applying it to the standard Black Scholes model and the European call option
and compare the result to the explicit solution of section 2.7.
In general the quality of this method depends very much on the
underlying model and on the smoothness of the pay-out function g.
101
Bt
St
Xt =
Bond
Stock
Bt 1
St = S0 exp(bNt t)
where b, > 0 and (Nt ) is a Poisson process with intensity . For the
set of trading strategies we suppose the same conditions as in section
4.1. We call this market model MP oisson . As for any market model,
we are interested whether it is arbitrage free or not. To answer this
question we define a process Y as
Yt := (exp(b)1 )Nt t).
This process is also rcll, has finite variation on compacts and therefore satisfies [Y ]c = 0. We have ( see Def. 3.4.2 )
E(Y )t = eYt
(1 + (Y )s ) exp((Y )s )
0<st
(exp(b)1)Nt
= e
et
0<st
dP
NT
= e( ) T.
dP
.
Proof. [?], page 246.
Let us now define := /(exp(b) 1) and define P with respect
to this as in Theorem 4.4.1. Then under P (Nt ) is a Poisson process with intensity . Hence it follows from Exercise 4.4.1. that
(Nt t)t[0,T ] is a P martingale. Since Yt = (exp(b) 1)Nt t =
(exp(b) 1)(Nt t) it follows that also Y is a martingale under P
= X is a martingale under P . Hence
and as mentioned before that X
P P(MP oisson ) and MP oisson is arbitrage free. One can also show
that MP oisson is complete. For this one needs some kind of martingale representation theorem for Poisson processes ( we leave this out ).
Also P(MP oisson ) = {P }. Let us now consider a European call option
g = (ST K)+ in MP oisson where K denotes the strike price. For the fair
price we have
= EP (g)
= EP ((S0 exp(bNT T ) K)+ )
X
1 n
( T ) (S0 exp(bn T ) K)+ .
=
n!
n=0
The following exercise is very interesting. It should be solved by
experimenting on the computer.
Exercise 4.4.2. In the standard Black/Scholes model take parameters
S0 = 10, = 0.4,r = 0.025 and T = 5. Compute the fair price of a
103
European call with strike price K = 10 with the formula in section 2.7.
What parameters , b and should one take to get approximately the
same price for the same option in the Poisson market model. Then look
what happens if you slightly change K.
The pure Poisson market model is not of practical use but good to
demonstrate the general concept. Nevertheless it is sometimes used in
combination with the standard Black-Scholes model.
104
Chapter 5
Portfolio Optimization
5.1 Introduction
Consider a financial market M. Up to now we were mainly concerned
in questions like how to characterize arbitrage freeness, completeness
and how to compute fair prices for contingent claims. A different question is how to choose a trading strategy that in some sense performs
in an optimal way. Optimality will be defined via a so called utility
function U which may depend on the terminal wealth of the portfolio
but also on possible consumption. It is clearly that a greater terminal
wealth should have a greater utility, but the utility function should also
pay respect to the fact that trading in financial markets bears risks.
Also different traders may use different utility functions corresponding to their individual attitude towards risk. However there are some
quite general rules :
1. more money is always better ( has a greater utility ) U is monotonically increasing
2. if your wealth is 1000 Euro your individual increase in utility from
gaining another 1000 Euro is much bigger than if your wealth
would be 1000000 Euro ( change in utility can be understood as
what effect has the gain on your life ) U (x) is monotonically
decreasing
105
ct dt < P a.s..
RT
Remark 5.1.1. (ct ) models the consumption-rate, 0 ct dt the money the
trader takes from the market for consumption over the time interval
[0, t].
We do now consider pairs (, c) consisting of a trading strategy
which satisfy the conditions 1.) and 2.) in section 4.1 ( page 74 ) and a
consumption strategy c where condition 3.) in section 4.1. is replaced
by the following self-financing condition :
dVt () = t dXt ct dt.
Since consumption takes place over the whole time interval [0, T ] we
must allow a utility function also to depend on a time parameter.
Definition 5.1.2.
1. U : (0, ) R is called a utility function if it
is strictly concave, C 1 and U (0) := limx0 U (x) = as well as
U () := limx U (x) = 0.
106
(,c)A (x)
J(x, , c)
RT
0
rt dt
g) = x,
= (1 , ..., k ) Rk
k
X
j
f (x )
g (x) = 0 i = 1, ..., n
j
s.t.
xi
x
i
j=1
(x , ) is a zero of L where
Rt
0
rs ds
EP (
dP
|Ft )
dP
RT
= x EP (e 0 rt dt g) = 0.
The second equation says exactly, that and hedging strategy ofg
satisfies V0 () = x. Since U2 : (0, ) (0, ) is bijective ( strictly
decreasing and surjective ), we can define
109
g := (U2 )1 (HT ).
Obviously g solves the first equation from above. Substituting this
in the second equation we get
x E(HT (U2 )1 (HT )) = 0.
{z
}
|
(5.1)
=:()
(0) := lim () =
0
(0) :=
lim () = 0.
(5.2)
g actually stands for a random variable and g
is not defined. Also
it is not clear at all,if the Lagrange multiplier methods works in this
context. The computations above are just formal computations which
lead us to the right solution. We will later see and proof, that g is indeed
the solution of problem 1. From now on we also consider the case c 6= 0.
We define
g.
RT
rs ds
)) <
}
112
= J(x, , 0)
where we have used that under the risk neutral measure P the
discounted value process VT ()) is a martingale. Hence J(x, , 0)
J(x, , 0) and the theorem is proven.
For computations it is sometimes advantageous to consider the so
called portfolio process.
Definition 5.2.1. Let (, c) be a self-financing pair consisting of a tradingstrategy and a consumption process c s.t. Vt () > 0 a.s. for all t [0, T ].
Define
n
X
it Xti
1 = 1
V ()
i=1 t
P
Vt () ni=1 it Xti
=
Vt ()
0 0
t Xt
=
Vt ()
which shows that t also carries information about the 0th asset.
Assume now that (, c) is a self-financing pair. Then
113
dVt () =
n
X
it dXti ct dt
0t
Xt0 rt dt
i=1
n
X
it Xti (Bti dt
j=1
i=1
= (1
= (1
t 1)Vt ()rt dt
n
X
1)Vt ()rt dt +
+
n
X
ij,t dWtj ) ct dt
i
Vt () : t
i=1
Vt ()t bt dt
(bit dt
n
X
j=1
ij,t dWtj ) ct dt
Vt ()tT t dWt
ct dt.
(,c)A (x)
J(x, , c)
U2 (x) =
1
x
1
.
x
1
x
1
1
)=
y HT
y
x
VT ( )HT = x.
HT
dHt = d(e
Rt
0
rs ds
E(
dW)t )
= Ht t dWt Ht rt dt
d[V ( ), H]t = Ht Vt ( )t t t dt
= Ht Vt ( )t (bt rt )dt.
= Ht Vt ( )(t t )dWt .
Using the assumption in section 4.1 on , r and one can easily
show, that the last expression is not only a local martingale but a martingale under P.Therefore we have that
Ht Vt ( ) = E(HT VT ( )|Ft )
= E(x|Ft )
= x.
In particular the process (Ht Vt ( ) is deterministic which implies
that
116
t t = 0.
The last equation is equivalent to
t = (t )1 t
which has to be valid for all t [0, t]. This strategy is the portfolio
process of the optimal trading strategy. For the standard Black-Scholes
model where b, r and are constant one gets
br
2
which is constant in time. Note that since the prices of the assets
change over time, this doesnt mean that the optimal trading strategy
is also constant. In fact it is highly non constant and the trader has to
rearrange his portfolio at any time. Unfortunately there is no general
method to find the optimal portfolio. Under some assumptions there
are methods from Malliavin Calculus ( Clark-Ocone formula ) which
may be used to compute the optimal portfolio process. These methods
wont be considered in this course. We will discuss a method, which is
more elementary, but needs more assumptions.
t =
Proposition 5.2.2. Let x > 0, (y) < for all y > 0 and g , c be
the optimal terminal wealth resp. consumption as in Theorem 5.2.1.
Assume there exists f C 1,2 ([0, T ] Rd ) s.t. f (0) = x and
Z T
1
Hs cs ds + HT g |Ft ) = f (t, Wt1 , ..., Wtd )
E(
Ht
t
then the optimal portfolio process has the following form
t =
1
( )1 x f (t, Wt1 , ..., Wtn ).
Vt ( , c )
117
Z T
Z t
f
1
Vt ()
Z t
((rs + s (bs rs ))Vs ( , c ) cs ds)
= x+
|{z}
0
(W E)
Vs ( , c )s s dWs .
It then follows from the uniqueness of the martingale part ( Theorem 3.6.1 ) that
x f (t, Wt1 , ..., Wtn ) = Vs ( , c )s s
which implies that
s =
1
(s )1 x f (t, Wt1 , ..., Wtn ).
Vs ( , c )
118
(5.3)
uA(t0 ,x)
Z
J(t0 , x, u) = E(
t0
(5.4)
(t, x, u) := (r + u
1 (b r))x u2
(t, x, u) := xu
1
and the upper index u in Vtu indicates the dependence of the solution
on the control u. The portfolio optimization problem corresponds to the
stochastic optimal control problem via
Z
J(t, x, u) := E(
Rd closed
: Q0 U Rn
: Q0 U Rnm
(, , u), (, , u) C 1 (Q0 ) u
|| || + || || C
t
x
|| || + || || C
t
x
||(t, x, u)|| + ||(t, x, u)|| C(1 + ||x|| + ||u||)
Furthermore we need the following definitions :
120
O :=
Rn or
n-dim manifold with C 3 boundary, embedded in Rn
Q := [t0 , t1 ) O
Q := [t0 , t1 ] O
:= inf{t t0 |(t, Xt ) Q}
The value function corresponding to the stochastic optimal control problem is defined as follows :
V (t, x) :=
inf
uA(t,x)
J(t, x, u) (t, x) Q.
Then
where Q = ([t0 , t1 ) O) ({t1 } O).
121
G(s, x), x
G(s, x), x
2. let us := u (s, x, G(s, x), s
2 G(s, x))
be the outcome of step 1.), then solve
U1 (t, c) :=
U2 (x) =
1 t
e c
1
x
2
1
{ u1 u1 x2 2 V (t, x)
x
u1 [1 ,2 ]d ,u2 [0,) 2
max
for given 0 < 1 < 2 < . In the first step we compute the minimum in () with L = U1 , = U2 ( for the transition of minima to
maxima ). For this we build the partial derivatives with respect to u1
and u2 and setting them equal to zero gives :
u1t = ( )1 (b r)
u2t = (et
V (t, x)
x
2
x2 V (t, x)
V (t, x) 1 .
x
(5.5)
(5.6)
( V (t, x))2
1
0 = (b r) ( )1 (b r) x
V (t, x)
+
r
2
x
V
(t,
x)
2
x
t
+
V (t, x) 1 e 1
+ V (t, x).
x
t
To solve the last equation we make the following separation approach :
1
V (t, x) = f (t) x
f (T ) = 1 (terminal condition) .
Substituting this in the previous equation we get
123
1
0 = [ (b r) ( )1 (b r) 1 1 + r] f (t)
2
t
1 1
e (f (t)) 1 + f (t).
+
Let us define
1
1
a1 := (b r) ( )1 (b r)
+r
2
1
t
1 1
a2 (t) :=
e .
g (t) =
g(T ) = 1.
a1
a2 (t)
g(t)
1
1
g(t) = e 1 (T t) +
a1
a1
a1
1
(e 1 T e 1 t ) e 1 (T t) .
(a1 )
124
t =
1
( )1 (b r)
1
1
ct = (et f (t)) 1 Vt ( , c ).
The term Vt ( , c ) is the value process corresponding to the pair
( , c ). The definition is not recursive as it looks like, since substituting ( , c ) as above in (WE) determines a wealth process uniquely. The
third step is now to check, that all the assumption for a application of
the HJB theorem are satisfied. This is a very good exercise.
125
Bibliography
[Bingham/Kiesel] Risk neutral Valuation
[Delbaen/Schachermayer] A general version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing.
[Karatzas/Shreve] Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus
[Hackenbroch/Thalmaier] Stochastische Analysis
[Hull] Options,Futures and other Derivatives
[Korn1] Optionsbewertung und Portfoliooptimierung
[Korn2] Optimal Portfolios
[Korn3] Option Pricing and Portfolio Optimization
[Protter] Stochastic Integration and Stochastic Differential Equations
[Stricker] Arbitrage et loi de martingales
126