Visualising Success 141208165352 Conversion Gate02

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.
11
Visualizing
Success
Using Positive Risk Diagrams to
Achieve Business Objectives
The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.
It started with disaster
Piper Alpha platform The North Sea

1988
and ended in success

Satellite View
Zoom 300%
Full View
T&E product
development and
marketing
Director of T&E
RPQ phase 2
delivery
Business
Leader for T&E
2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11
with a revolutionary method for

managers
consultants and
entrepreneurs
to analyse and achieve all business objectives

by overcoming uncertainty with simplicity

VISUALIZING
UNCERTAINTY
NEGATIVE OR DOWNSIDE RISK
Modelling bad events
Minimising negative outcomes
Cause
Cause
RESISTANCE
Bad
Event
Cause
POSITIVE OR UPSIDE RISK

Modelling good events
Maximising positive outcomes
Effect
Condition
Effect
Condition
Effect
Condition
Bowtie Diagram
MOMENTUM
Good
Event
Benefit
Benefit
Benefit
Moar Diagram
The theory and origins of these diagrams will be explained in the following pages
You will now be shown a new, free and highly

effective business improvement tool, currently known
as the New Method of positive risk modelling.
It requires only 10 minutes to learn, yet within hours the

Method will have transformed your organisations ability to
analyse, communicate and achieve all of its key objectives.
Manage a small project

using a single diagram
Risk environment
descriptor
Risk Environment
Owner
Goal or target
descriptor
Goal Owner
T&E product
development and
marketing
Director of T&E
RPQ phase 2
delivery
Business
Leader for T&E
Comprehensively visualize any objective

Condition for
delivery
Condition for
delivery
Condition for
delivery
Benefit
Project
Delivery
Benefit
Disbenefit
Initiate and scope a project
Update
management
in seconds
You will discover how to:
ENDORSEMENTS
VP Enterprise Risk at a major West
Coast USA university: Wonderful
Visualizing Success presentation
on LinkedIn!! May I please have a
copy of the presentation to share
with some of my Administration
and Finance colleagues?
Since launch in 2015
Principal Consultant at RPS

Energy:
I really enjoyed reading your
very informative and well
thought out presentation.
Thanks very much for sharing
this in a public forum.
Head of Business Solutions and Engagement

Management Services for a major UK
consultancy: As someone who has spent his
entire PM career always balancing the upside of
risk mgmt with the traditional down side mgmt
...it was refreshing to see someone with exactly
the same thought process but having described
it in such a structured and methodical way.
MD of Business Intelligence at a
large American healthcare company:
we are starting a consulting
practice to help our clients manage
their critical functions better. I have
been trying to envision a means of
communicating what you call positive
risk in a simple paradigm and believe
you have done a masterful job.
Head of Strategic Development at the UK's leading

consumer rights organisation:
I recently came across your visualising success document
online and was very impressed. I think that this could be
something that I could use in time (assuming I could get
internal stakeholders across the idea).
WARNING!
words ahead
You are about to view a presentation containing intuitive
diagrams and graphics. It also contains just enough words
to present a basic theory with supporting evidence.
If you dislike wordy presentations this could be a good time

to
, although your patience may be rewarded.
GLOSSARY
The following pages introduce

some new and unfamiliar terms
positive risk
a management perspective focusing upon the uncertainty of desired outcomes
New Method
a quick and simple process for creating positive risk models
Moar Diagram
the graphical representation of a positive risk model: the visualization of success
Satellite View
the high level representation of a Moar Diagram, designed for senior management
ECRM
Event Centred Risk Modelling: a new paradigm offering two vital management tools
Designing Success
The New Method creates simple, data-rich models of goal-focused activities,
such as business strategies, project delivery and the pursuit of targets.
The graphical presentation
of these models, known as
Moar Diagrams, increase
the probabilities of success
by capturing the whole
upside environment,
enabling real-time
management and
communication of plans,
actions, risks and progress.
Migrating all Group

offices to the same
finance system
(Maconomy)
Finance Director
Subsidiary
Company
migrated to
Maconomy
successfully
IT Manager
A slightly larger version of this diagram is shown in a

later slide. For greater clarity, download the PDF file
or request the PowerPoint Show from the author.
Moar Diagrams illustrate the solutions to

two fundamental business problems:
1. How to navigate successfully towards
goals or targets and
2. How to maximise the benefits we expect
those goals and targets to deliver.
Paradoxically, the origins of this technique may be traced back to one
of the worlds worst industrial accidents, more than 25 years ago.
ISO 31000 (the international risk management standard)

defines risk as the effect of uncertainty on objectives.
Therefore, the probability of a risk event is always >0 and
<1 (because probabilities of zero and one are both
certainties).
So the probability of a risk event is always a positive number
The Theory
The Theory
Now consider the classic risk equation:
Risk = Probability x Outcome

If probability is always a positive number, Risk
must be negative when the outcome is negative.
This is the traditional domain of risk management.
So Risk will become positive if the outcome is positive.
Presumably, these are the outcomes we want. If so, how
do we achieve and maximise these positive outcomes?
The Theory
Traditional risk management

is focused upon negative
outcomes, such as financial
loss, technical failures and
human casualties the events
we try to avoid.
This is negative risk

(or downside risk)
However, positive risk (or

upside risk) is concerned with
success, profits and victories
the events we want to
happen.
Is this something we can

understand better by modelling?
The Theory
Origins of the New Method

In response to the 1988 Piper
Alpha disaster, the oil industry
focused intensively upon the
management of negative risk.
Royal Dutch Shell developed

Bowtie diagrams into highly
effective analytical tools.
Bowtie diagrams are now used in most hazardous industries
Bowtie Diagrams: Core Components

The event we
need to avoid
The negative
consequences
Cause
Cause
Cause
Effect
Bad
Event
Effect
Controls
Risk is influenced by the current performance of controls: Good
Effect
Moderate
Poor
Controls are implemented to prevent the event or to mitigate its effects
Causes or
threats
Two of the many reasons why Bowtie diagrams have been successful:
1) The diagrams are both
convenient decision-making
tools and suitable for
sharing (without
modification) with nonspecialist stakeholders.
Key learning
from the
Bowtie
method:
2) Controls deployed after

an event (i.e. for mitigation
or recovery purposes) are
given the same visibility as
those deployed for the
events prevention.
The probability of a bad event may be reduced by pro-active,

pre-emptive risk management. (This is well understood.)
More importantly, the occurrence of an event does not imply
the inevitability of its expected consequences. These
consequences are determined by post-event management.
So, Bowtie modelling is a proven method

for visualizing negative risk environments.
Visualizing Success
This presentation reveals how the Bowtie method has
been successfully adapted to visualize positive risk in
any commercial, organisational or personal context.
This transformation was undertaken in 2013-14 by
PJ Moar with assistance from professionals in the
business consulting and risk management sectors.
Moar Diagrams: Core Components

The event we want
to happen (the goal)
The positive
outcomes
Benefit
Condition
Condition
Condition
Good
Event
Benefit
Benefit
Drivers
Risk is influenced by the current performance of drivers: Good
Moderate
Poor
Drivers enable progress towards the goal and benefit maximisation
The set of conditions

for achieving a goal
Positive and Negative Risk: The Key Differentiators

Negative risk management uses controls to avoid unwanted events or to mitigate their effects.
Controls are managed resources such as people, technologies, assets and procedures.
Positive risk management uses drivers to achieve desired events and to maximise their
benefits. Drivers are managed resources such as people, technologies, assets and procedures.
These two perspectives are compared in the table below:
Type of Modelling
Risk Event
Tool
Negative
(downside)
Positive
(upside)
Bowtie
method
New
Method
Visualization
Technique
Origins
Bowtie diagrams
1980s
Moar Diagrams
Satellite Views
Applicable Sectors
All - especially the
hazardous industries
All especially
corporate management
2013-14
and the management
consulting industry
Recommended
Software Tools
BowtieXP by CGE Risk
No commercial
products available
Contact the author for

prototype solutions
What is a Condition?
Each Condition is a high level sub-deliverable or
part-deliverable of the objective. Examples:
Condition
Infrastructure built
Funds secured
Marketing campaign designed
Condition
Typically between 2 and 8 Conditions are identified
in each model.
Condition
Each condition is necessary, but not sufficient to achieve the goal.
All conditions must be satisfied to ensure success.
Examples: 3 applications of the New Method

Some conditions
for achieving the goal
Goal, target or
project deliverable
Technical infrastructure implemented
Business
transition to
new finance
system
Users trained
All functionality tested successfully
Funds for acquisition secured
Target company selected
Agreement of the Board obtained
Warehouse stock optimised
Marketing campaign designed
Delivery logistics contracted
Acquire
company in
new market
Successful
launch of online
retail site
Drivers are located here
Some benefits from

achieving the goal
Report financial data in real time
Reduce errors
Enable 24x7 access for all users
Sell products via acquisitions brand
Reduce back-office costs
Halt advance of major competitor
Enable shift to global markets
Gain access to younger demographic
Improve shareholder confidence
What is a Driver?
A driver is any type of resource, capability,
process or action directed (by management)
towards achieving a specific objective.
The modeller uses

experience and
judgement to identify
and describe each driver
The following are all examples of drivers:

The application of a procedure
An internal or external communication
A documentation task
A technical solution
The analysis of data
A training programme
Moar Diagram: full version including positive effectors and disbenefits

Condition
Risk environment
descriptor
Benefit
Condition
Goal
Benefit
Condition
Disbenefit
Positive
effector
Any factor likely to significantly support the

performance of a driver is known as a positive
effector (PE). Each PE is advanced by a driver.
If any significant negative consequences

(disbenefits) are identified, they are added
to the model and mitigated by controls.
Projects
Successful delivery is the goal
Subsequent benefits are expected
Initiating or Scoping Major Projects

SENIOR LEADERSHIP INTEREST
PROJECT MANAGER FOCUS
PROJECT SPONSOR FOCUS
THE PROJECT TASKS
THE BUSINESS CASE
Condition for
delivery
Condition for
delivery
Benefit
Project
Delivery
Benefit
Here, most drivers and controls are shown without

colour, indicating activities which have not started.
Disbenefit
Condition for
delivery
The Moar Diagram is a rapid and effective workshop

tool for project initiation and scoping.
Managing Small or Non-Complex Projects

SENIOR MANAGEMENT INTEREST
PROJECT MANAGER FOCUS
PROJECT SPONSOR FOCUS
THE PROJECT TASKS
THE BUSINESS CASE
Benefit
Condition for
delivery
Project
Delivery
Benefit
Condition for
delivery
Completed tasks are marked black.

Drivers scheduled to start in the future remain white.
Green indicates on-schedule and on-budget.
Disbenefit
Condition for
delivery
A small project may be managed using only the

diagram and shared in real-time
with other stakeholders.
A Project Management Revolution?
As illustrated in the
previous diagrams,
the business case
remains in focus
throughout the
project lifecycle.
Does this improved

visibility increase
the probability of
project success?
From Theory to Practice

SYMBOLS
A necessary
condition
A positive
effector
An expected
benefit
An expected
disbenefit
COSTS
Risk
environment
descriptor
Goal or
target
The relative cost of a driver or

control is indicated by red bars.
Driver
descriptor
Control
descriptor
Low
Moderate
High
SIZE AND COLOUR INDICATORS

The theoretical or assumed effectiveness
of a driver/control is indicated by its width.
The current performance/status of a driver or control

(i.e. representing its uncertainty) is indicated by a colour.
Poor
Weak
Non-Essential
Moderate
Desirable
Strong
Essential
Moderate
Future Start
Good
Unknown
Completed Task
Diagram Exemplar
This diagram contains at least one example of each component characteristic

Risk environment
descriptor
Risk Environment
Owner
Goal or target
descriptor
Goal Owner
All
ownership
is clearly assigned
Real-World Example:
A small business project
T&E product
development and
marketing
A single Moar Diagram

simultaneously
communicates the
objective, the scope,
the plan, business
benefits, costs, staff
responsibilities, current
progress and risks.
Director of T&E
RPQ phase 2
delivery
Business
Leader for T&E
For greater clarity, download the

PDF file or request the PowerPoint
Show from the author.
Another Real-World Example:

Migrating all Group
offices to the same
finance system
(Maconomy)
Finance Director
Project to achieve
the financial
integration of a
subsidiary business.
Regular maintenance of a single diagram is sufficient to keep a

small project on track and demonstrate progress to sponsors.
For greater clarity, download the PDF file or request the PowerPoint Show from the author.
Subsidiary
Company
migrated to
Maconomy
successfully
IT Manager
A small finance project
Theoretical Example:
This acquisition scenario

features some positive
effectors (grey symbols).
Many post-acquisition drivers
must remain dormant (white)
until the deal is signed and
confidentiality ends.
For greater clarity, download the PDF file or request the PowerPoint Show from the author.
Strategic
business growth
and development
Business Leader
Acquire target
company in new
geographical
market
Head of
Acquisitions
A Strategic Business Acquisition
DREAD THE RED
Red symbols are used to represent under-performance, negative

outcomes and costs. A preponderance of red should attract the attention
of management.
An expected
disbenefit
Underperforming
driver
Underperforming
control
A negative
outcome
High cost
controls and drivers
Diagram colours and symbols have been designed to communicate the

status of a positive risk environment in seconds.

https://maildr.moar.com/owa
Satellite Views
for Senior Management
The Satellite View is a high level
representation of a Moar Diagram.
All text and non-essential detail is
excluded.
This enables the current status of a

risk environment (such as a project)
to be reviewed in seconds.
Software Options
This type of positive risk modelling is not
currently supported by a dedicated software
tool. However, an adapted version of
BowtieXP (by CGE) has been developed.
Risk environment
descriptor
Risk Environment
Owner
Goal or target
descriptor
Goal Owner
Contact the author for more information.

Software developers creating tools for the
New Method will receive free support and
advice from the author, upon request.
Until software becomes available, try

using custom sticky notes or Excel
A New Method for
Visualizing Success
Click the document to view

and/or download a free guide to
the Method (via Slideshare)
For high quality diagrams use graphical tools, such as MS PowerPoint or Visio
Workshop Techniques
and Outputs
2015 PJ Moar
peter.moar@gmail.com
version 3.11
Event Centred Risk Modelling

VISUALIZING
UNCERTAINTY
NEGATIVE OR DOWNSIDE RISK
Modelling bad events
Minimising negative outcomes
Cause
Cause
RESISTANCE
Bad
Event
Cause
Bowtie Diagram
POSITIVE OR UPSIDE RISK

Modelling good events
Maximising positive outcomes
Effect
Condition
Effect
Condition
Effect
Condition
MOMENTUM
Good
Event
Benefit
Benefit
Benefit
Moar Diagram
The ECRM paradigm delivers two powerful management tools
ECRM models are sufficiently

versatile to be used in the
management of our own lives!
Personal
Models
SUMMARY
The New Method of positive risk modelling aims to maximise the probability of successful
outcomes in goal-focused environments.
Data acquired via the Method is visualized as Moar Diagrams.

Each Diagram identifies an objective and its expected benefits; it clarifies the ownership of
drivers and controls, using colours and shapes to highlight both costs and performance risk.
Satellite Views offer senior management an informative, high level insight to the contents
of a Moar Diagram.
Project initiation or scoping using the Method becomes a fast, outcome-focused activity.
Small projects may be managed and communicated through a single Moar Diagram.
A new analytical paradigm has emerged: Event Centred Risk Modelling (ECRM).
Acknowledgements
The following business and risk management professionals kindly offered objective
and constructive feedback during the development of this new tool:
Richard Popplestone, Principal Consultant, Risktec Solutions Ltd

Pete Radcliffe, Independent Management Consultant, Ferryhouse Consulting Ltd
Paul Banford, Bioscience IP Ltd
The team at CGE Risk, with special thanks to Ben Keetlaer
Vicky Billingham, Business Leader for Training & Education, Risktec Solutions Ltd.
FEEDBACK
Your comments and criticisms will be very welcome.

Please write to: peter.moar@gmail.com
Anticipating Your Questions

Question: The New Method incorporates positive effectors which improve the performance of drivers. Why are
there no negative effectors?
Answer: Negative effectors have been trialled. Intuitively, they are useful. However, the New Method is designed to
mirror the Bowtie method. The latter incorporates only one type of effector, known as an Escalation Factor.
Therefore, in order to mirror the Bowtie method only one type of effector has been adopted for the New Method.
During testing it was found that every negative effector upon a driver could, in fact, be re-written in the form of a
positive effector. Try it. It does work! For this reason, there are currently no negative effectors on a Moar Diagram.
Question: Is a condition equivalent to a requirement?
Answer: For many users of the New Method the term condition will be synonymous with requirement. However,
requirement has a specific meaning in professional project management, so to avoid confusion it has not been used
in this presentation, nor is it mentioned in the accompanying guide to the New Method.
Question: Is the New Method conducive to quantification?
Answer: The New Method is broadly qualitative (as is the Bowtie method). However, attempts have been made to
quantify Bowties, so similar attention will probably be given to models created by the New Method. Please publish or
share any attempts to do this.
Anticipating Your Questions - continued

Question: Should drivers be listed in chronological order, from left to right?
Answer: This is not essential, although it is intuitive to do it this way. The modeller can choose between using the
order of expected start date or completion date. Chronology does not affect the overall purpose and value of a Moar
Diagram, which is primarily concerned with providing a visualization of risk and a reference point for stakeholders.
Question: Have you considered applying Event Centred Risk Modelling to lifecycle analysis?
Answer: This is a good idea and something which could be developed. It should be easy to indicate the points on
each lifecycle diagram where either Bowtie modelling or the New Method can be successfully applied. For example,
the New Method helps with project initiation and scoping, whereas the Bowtie method may be used during the
design phase of a project. We could also look at product lifecycles, asset lifecycles and change lifecycles.
Question: I am confused about the relationship between positive risk and opportunity risk?
Answer: You are not alone! This presentation has attempted to clearly define positive risk and contrast it with
negative risk, which seems quite easy. However, risk management theorists often use the phrases positive risk and
opportunity risk interchangeably, which implies synonymity, although they frequently discuss opportunity within the
context of negative outcomes (e.g. the opportunity for one outcome to be less negative than another). This is a
confusing area of risk management theory and has been purposely avoided within this presentation.
Anticipating Your Questions - continued

Question: Why is it called the New Method? Is there a more meaningful or memorable name?
Answer: The naming of this technique has been problematic. It is inappropriate to call it either Positive Risk
Modelling (too generic) or Bowtie Modelling (closely associated with safety risk management). Fortunately, this
new method is not under the control of any authority. It is in the public domain and unprotected by patents, trade
marks or design rights. Its further development will be determined by personal preferences and professional
consensus. Users of the technique may adopt any name they choose.
Question: Have you considered applying this technique to Professor Erik Hollnagels risk management paradigm
known as Safety-2?
Answer: According to Hollnagel, the conventional approach to safety risk management focuses on unwanted events
and outcomes. This paradigm is known as Safety-1. Hollnagel argues that we can improve safety through a focus
upon desired events and outcomes. This positive mindset is referred to as Safety-2. Surely, it is reasonable to
assume that if the Bowtie method is effective in supporting Safety-1, then the New Method will support Safety-2.
However, Professor Hollnagel has kindly confirmed in writing that his theory cannot be represented by the type of
linear method of analysis shown here.
About the Author

PJ Moar is a management consultant specialising
in business technologies, product innovation,
entrepreneurship and risk management. Peter is
based in the UK with substantial international
experience in many sectors.
Will your organisation benefit from the visualization of risk environments?
If so, contact Peter now to arrange your first ECRM workshops:
p.moar@moar.com
http://uk.linkedin.com/in/pmoar
Moar Ltd is a UK registered company No. 08281339
UK VAT Registration No. 152323738
Share the Benefits

Moar Diagrams are free to employ in any commercial or non-commercial context.
However, you are encouraged to share some of their benefits by supporting or
promoting one of the following international organisations:
Mines Advisory Group (MAG)
Working in more than 40 countries since 1989, MAG saves lives and builds futures by
reclaiming land contaminated with the remnants of conflict, such as landmines, cluster
munitions, bombs, shells and mortars. Please donate here:
http://www.maginternational.org/get-involved/donate
Challenges Worldwide (CWW)

Operating in some of the worlds poorest economies, CWW enables entrepreneurs and
enterprises to improve their skills and grow businesses, generating income and
sustainable economic growth. Visit CWW here:
http://www.challengesworldwide.org/
Thanks
The ECRM paradigm offers a unique commercial opportunity for software developers.
One simple modelling tool could supply four large markets:
Management consulting
Corporate management
Project management
Risk management
many millions of professional users worldwide.

Contact the author for free support in the development, testing and marketing of a
commercial ECRM application.
The Software Challenge
Moar Diagrams
A revolution in business modelling?
Visualizing Success
The End
This presentation may be freely distributed and shared. However, no part may be sold or published
without the authors express permission. Please contact Peter Moar: peter.moar@gmail.com
Version Control: This is version 3.11, which may not be the latest. The latest version will be found on
Slideshare, accessible via this shortened link: http://tinyurl.com/Viz-Success

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2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.

The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

It started with disaster

Piper Alpha platform The North Sea

and ended in success

The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

with a revolutionary method for

to analyse and achieve all business objectives

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

by overcoming uncertainty with simplicity

POSITIVE OR UPSIDE RISK

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

You will now be shown a new, free and highly

It requires only 10 minutes to learn, yet within hours the

Manage a small project

Comprehensively visualize any objective

Initiate and scope a project

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.

You will discover how to:

Since launch in 2015

Principal Consultant at RPS

Head of Business Solutions and Engagement

Head of Strategic Development at the UK's leading

If you dislike wordy presentations this could be a good time

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

The following pages introduce

a management perspective focusing upon the uncertainty of desired outcomes

a quick and simple process for creating positive risk models

the graphical representation of a positive risk model: the visualization of success

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Migrating all Group

A slightly larger version of this diagram is shown in a

Moar Diagrams illustrate the solutions to

ISO 31000 (the international risk management standard)

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Now consider the classic risk equation:

Risk = Probability x Outcome

Traditional risk management

This is negative risk

However, positive risk (or

Is this something we can

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Origins of the New Method

Royal Dutch Shell developed

Bowtie Diagrams: Core Components

Risk is influenced by the current performance of controls: Good

Controls are implemented to prevent the event or to mitigate its effects

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

2) Controls deployed after

The probability of a bad event may be reduced by pro-active,

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

So, Bowtie modelling is a proven method

Moar Diagrams: Core Components

Risk is influenced by the current performance of drivers: Good

Drivers enable progress towards the goal and benefit maximisation

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

The set of conditions

Positive and Negative Risk: The Key Differentiators

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11

Contact the author for

2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11