DJ European Forex Technicals

Tue Jun 29 02:21:00 EDT 2010

DJ European Forex Technicals: Fresh 19-

Month Lows For EUR/GBP
By Francis Bray
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:

Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF

Spot 0500 GMT 1.2269 88.77 1.5097 1.0856

3 Day Trend Bearish Bearish Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish
200 day ma 1.3411 91.87 1.5409 1.0847
3rd Resistance 1.2382 89.78 1.5225 1.1000
2nd Resistance 1.2345 89.47 1.5173 1.0938
1st Resistance 1.2296 89.22 1.5127 1.0900
Pivot* 1.2313 89.30 1.5084 1.1036
1st Support 1.2209 88.54 1.5066 1.0817
2nd Support 1.2167 87.95 1.5009 1.0791
3rd Support 1.2150 87.36 1.4934 1.0732

Intraday EUR/USD: Monday's sharp setback off 1.2398 keeps last week's bearish hanging man
candle the dominant force, and support at 1.2254 has just been breached. The immediate target is
to test the June 23 low at 1.2209, as a break below there would extend the setback off the June 21
reaction high at 1.2490 towards the 1.2150 support area. A push above the 1.2296 symmetrical
triangle high on the 60-minute chart is required to provide temporary respite, but corrective
strength is limited while 1.2345 caps.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.

Intraday USD/JPY: Significant bear pressure has emerged Tuesday to force a break below 89.06
into fresh seven-week lows, as the focus lies on meeting the downwave equality target at 88.54.
Failure to keep this area intact would prompt further weakness towards the May 6 reaction low at
87.95, and worsen the wider outlook as 85.85 becomes a slightly longer-term target. Near-term
pivotal resistance at 89.22 provides the limit for corrective upside.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.

Intraday GBP/USD: Met another upside target on its way to Monday's peak at 1.5127, and is
consolidating just below there as near-term bulls pause for breath. Support lies at 1.5066 to
cushion corrective weakness, and renewed bull pressure on 1.5127 would threaten further gains
towards the 1.5168/73 resistance area. A key resistance cluster lies in the 1.5225 area, which is
likely to limit the current short-term recovery. Near-term pivotal support lies at 1.5009, and only
below there would concern bulls.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.

Intraday USD/CHF: Bounces off significant support at 1.0817 Monday, and is looking to tackle
resistance in the 1.0900 area. 1.0817 marks 50% retracement of the 0.9916/1.1730 advance, and
also a seven-month bull trendline, suggesting a break above 1.0900 is likely. This would open
projected targets at 1.0938 and the 1.1000 level. Only a sustained break below 1.0817 would
extend the short-term bear trend towards 1.0732.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.

Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD

Spot 0542 GMT 0.8125 108.80 1.3308 0.8652

3 Day Trend Bearish Bearish Bearish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8701 123.21 1.4508 0.8768
3rd Resistance 0.8272 109.87 1.3393 0.8758
2nd Resistance 0.8244 109.43 1.3364 0.8720
1st Resistance 0.8204 109.16 1.3337 0.8675
Pivot* 0.8161 110.04 1.3403 0.8735
1st Support 0.8119 108.06 1.3290 0.8595
2nd Support 0.8083 106.90 1.3187 0.8512
3rd Support 0.8000 105.53 1.3157 0.8500

Intraday EUR/GBP: Monday's weakness extends the setback off last Friday's high at 0.8272 to
force a break below 0.8180 into fresh 19-month lows, and the 0.8119 downside target is the
immediate focus. Failure to limit the setback here would see the 1.618 downside extension target
at 0.8083 come into view. Corrective gains should be limited to the 0.8204 area.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.

Intraday EUR/JPY: Tuesday's break into fresh near-term lows below 109.53 has damaged the
potential inverse head-and-shoulders base pattern on the daily chart, as the 2010 low at 108.06 is
being threatened. Having left a symmetrical triangle behind on the 60-minute chart, the main
threat is for a break below 108.06, creating scope for further weakness into fresh eight-and-a-half
year lows towards 106.90. Only a break above 109.87 would question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.

Intraday EUR/CHF: Another push into all-time lows Tuesday following the push below 1.3329,
and there is little in the way of projected support until the downwave equality target at 1.3187. A
1.618 extension target lies below there at 1.3157, and these are the last line of defence for the
1.3000 level. Regaining ground above 1.3364 is required to question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Extends the setback off Monday's high at 0.8775 as last Friday's low at
0.8595 becomes the focus. Last week's bearish hanging man candle suggests a break below
0.8595 is likely, exposing short-term pivotal support at 0.8500. Regaining ground above 0.8720
is required to question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.

Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow
Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)