Sri Lanka: The Rajapaksas Rise Again

Disillusionment with the Sirisena regime is running high, giving

the Rajapaksa clan a chance to reclaim lost glory.

Sri Lanka's former President Mahinda Rajapaksa (C) waves at his

supporters at the end of the five-day protest march against the
incumbent government in Sri Lanka (August 1, 2016).Image
Credit: REUTERS/Dinuka Liyanawatte
Were not the same guys who used to tell you various things and
then forget about it three days later We want the world to know
that were differentthat were going to do what we say were
doing.

Harsha de Silva, Sri Lankas deputy minister of foreign

affairs, to National Geographic (November 2016)
By SinhaRaja Tammita-Delgoda-January 20, 2017

Politics is shaped by
leaders ability to deliver. It is all about doing and achieving,
doing what you say what you say you are going to do, to
paraphrase Dr. Harsha de Silva, Sri Lankas current deputy
minister of foreign affairs. It is not about good intentions; it is
about getting results. It is not about pleasing outsiders; ultimately
it is about keeping your own people happy, satisfying their
aspirations, reassuring them, protecting them, and advancing
their interests. This is the fundamental truth that is beginning to
dawn on Sri Lankas body politic.
Led by President Maithripala Sirisena, Prime Minister Ranil
Wickremesinghe, and former President Chandrika Bandaranaike
Kumaratunga, the ruling UNP-SLFP coalition government has now
been in power for two years. This government was welcomed,
even celebrated abroad, earning glowing praise from the United
States, the European Union, India, and the Western media for its
good intentions and heartfelt commitments to human rights,
minority concerns, democracy, and transparency. At home,
however, these plaudits have failed to resonate and the
administrations achievements are the subject of fierce debate.
There is now a deep groundswell of dissatisfaction, discontent,
and disillusionment with the present, combined with deep unease
about the future.
Two years ago everyone I met said they had voted for a change,
for Yahapalanaya [the catchphrase of the Sirisena campaign], for
this good governance government. Now I can hardly find anyone

who says that they did. People are asking, what kind of change
have we got?
So said Sisira, who has been a bus driver for the last 15 years.
Although he is from the deep south, from Rajapaksa country, he
had voted against the previous president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, in
the last two elections.
Now look! I wish I had never done it. Nothing is happening!
Sisira laments. Two years later they are still saying it is Mr.
Mahindas fault. Development? What development? The only
things they are doing are the things that he started.
As recently as a year ago, social media was obsessed with the
misdeeds of the Rajapaksas. Since then the focus has changed. It
is no longer about the Rajapaksas. Instead, discussion are full of
the shortcomings of Yahapalanaya and its leaders, and their
inability to deliver the good governance (a loose translation of
yahapalanaya) they had promised.
The themes which dominate the Sinhala media and social media
are particularly revealing of popular perception. This narrative
sees an administration conducting witch hunts, exhuming dead
bodies, locking up and then releasing Rajapaksas, reprimanding
Buddhist monks for keeping elephants, attacking disabled soldiers
while releasing convicted terrorists, welcoming former terrorist
organizations, and praising former terrorist leaders.
The sight of distinguished soldiers and service commanders, men
esteemed throughout the country as war heroes, being regularly
dragged into court and sometimes kept in cells has become a
familiar spectacle. Recently both the former Navy commander

and the former army commander found themselves confronted

with allegations of fraud, corruption, and abuse of power. In the
public mind this seems to have become a feature of
Yahapalanaya, a feature so politically damaging that Sirisena
found himself forced to repudiate the actions taken by the Bribery
and Corruption Commission.
One of the rallying cries of the new government was
reconciliation. This now threatens to boomerang back into its
face. Despite the overtures which have been made, all the signs
suggest that neither the Tamil diaspora nor influential parts of the
Tamil community in the north have renounced the language of
separatism. Toward the end of November 2016 hundreds gathered
to celebrate the birth anniversary of slain terrorist leader
Velupillai Prabhakaran, founder of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (the LTTE).
This was despite the governments warning that action would be
taken against anyone trying to take part in the event. The month
before, there had been a series of sword attacks by former LTTE
cadres on policemen and security officials. This was said to be in
retaliation for a shooting incident where two Tamil youths were
killed by police. Earlier still, in July, ten students had to be
hospitalized and the Jaffna University closed after violence broke
out during induction ceremonies. The incident was said to be
sparked by the use of Sinhala cultural rituals during the ceremony.
Many Sinhala are also uneasy at the tone and nature of
statements by Tamil leaders. While placating voters in the north,
the signal they send throughout the rest of the country is very
different. On the eve of the new year, the UNP found itself having
to disavow a statement by its state minister for child affairs,
Vijayakala Maheswaran, who praised the leadership of
Prabhakaran, before reiterating the benefits of the good

governance government: Compared to all of our presidents

none could hold a candle to Prabhakarans leadership.
Taken together, these events have fueled public perceptions
among the Sinhala majority that separatism is alive and well and
that the Sirisena administration is acquiescent, if not compliant.
Reconciliation ultimately means that the bringing together of
opposing factions or communities, to ensure lasting stability and
harmony. Yet there is little evidence that the gap between the
Sinhala majority and the Tamil minority in the north is being
bridged; if anything, it appears that the rift is widening.
In the current discourse, animal welfare has also become an
emotive political issue. Under the new government, numerous
campaigns have sprung up against the use of elephants
in peraheras (Buddhist religious processions).The elephant has
been part of Buddhist culture and tradition for millennia and these
campaigns have stirred up strong feelings. Pressure from activists
has also led to Buddhist monks being reprimanded for allegedly
ill-treating elephants. While English social media highlights the
rescue of elephants from malnourishment and ill treatment,
Sinhala social media perceives an onslaught against time-honored
traditions by foreigners and non-Buddhists. The result is to stoke
widespread murmurings and deep suspicion, once again
intensifying the fissures in Sri Lankan society.
These suspicions were voiced by no less a figure than the High
Priest of Gangaramaya, the most influential Buddhist temple in
Colombo. Speaking on the eve of Colombos spectacular Navam
Perahera, the Venerable Galaboda Gnanissara warned of the
threat to Buddhism: I can see that some powerful groups which
are spending dollars and talking about cruelty to animals are
slowly winning. Let us all join hands to rescue this country from
the NGOs.

What makes these words so significant is that the prelate is a

stalwart of the United National Party, with longstanding ties
to Ranil Wickremesinghe and his family.
The new constitution proposed by the UNP has tended to intensify
these fears and misgivings. Although lauded by civil society
figures, Western governments, and foreign commentators, it has
only heightened the abiding suspicion among Sinhala that the
government intends to do away with the central place which
Buddhism has occupied in Sri Lankas society for over 2,000
years.
On the third day of the new year, the Reconciliation Task Force
appointed by Prime Minister Wickremesinghe presented its final
report to former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga
in the presence of External Affairs Minister Mangala
Samaraweera. The Task Force was set up in 2016 to inquire into
the events of the civil war and to seek accountability, truth,
reparations for the victims. From the very beginning, the nature
and composition of this Task Force came in for intense domestic
criticism. Dominated by foreign-funded NGO and minority
activists, the Task Force has been condemned for being one-sided
and deeply unrepresentative. It is significant that both the prime
minister and president chose to absent themselves from the final
ceremony, because its conclusions could be a ticking time bomb.
The Report calls for Special Courts and a Special Prosecutors
office, with foreign participation as judges and prosecutors.
Sri Lankas army has never been seen as a voting bloc. As a result
its political potential has never been fully analyzed. Although now
trimmed to some 160,000 personnel, in 2010, shortly after the
end of the war, the Sri Lanka armed forces had 200,000 men on

active duty, between 20,000-40,000 reservists, and 18,000

national guardsmen, comprising nearly 250,000 in total.
Combined with extended families, social and kinship groups, this
could amount to as many as a million voters drawn from every
part of the country. Overwhelmingly Sinhala and overwhelmingly
Buddhist, it represents a silent block of highly trained, educated,
and politically conscious voters, with ties and connections into
every walk of society. The idea that this section of society could
now be held accountable by foreign judges and prosecutors is
inflammatory and potentially explosive. For Sirisena and
Wickremesinghe, it is an electoral disaster waiting to happen.
Politically, all these actions could be deeply counter-productive.
They will not win votes; they only will lose them. For good or for
ill, the UNP as the principal driver in the government will receive
the greatest share of the blame. In striving to please its
international backers and satisfy its urban and minority
constituencies, the UNP could alienate a large part of its
traditional support base.
Despite wholehearted support from minorities, the support of a
substantial segment of the majority was a critical factor in the
downfall of Mahinda Rajapaksa and the rise of the Yahapalanaya
government. In the 2015 presidential election, statistics show
that 40.96 percent of the Sinhalese community voted for Sirisena
and the UNP bloc. This percentage proved crucial, giving the
floating voter a vital say in electorates across the country. The
last two elections saw large chunks of Rajapaksas constituency
drift away; some did not even vote. There is the danger of the
same thing happening to the UNP. The signs suggest that the
floating voter has now well and truly crossed back and is biding
his time.

Overhanging all of this is the spectacular and massive corruption

of the Central Bank Bond scandal, which has dogged every step
the government has taken. Rumored to have cost the country
between 35-45 billion rupees ($233-$300 million), the greatest
loss of all has been trust and confidence. In one fell swoop, the
scandal has undermined the governments stand on corruption
and transparency, depriving it of one of its principal weapons
against the Rajapaksas. The fact that this has cost the country as
much as any of the financial crimes perpetuated by the
previous regime has been well and truly driven home. Just as
damaging, the man held responsible, former Central Bank
Governor Arjuna Mahendran, was handpicked by the prime
minister, who then defended by him until the very end.
Although Sirisena is now frequently attacked for appearing weak
and ineffective, it is widely accepted that he is a son of the soil,
relatable to the average voter. Wickremesinghe, in contrast, born,
bred, and educated in Colombo, has never shaken off the
perception that somehow he doesnt quite connect with ordinary
Sri Lankans. This has left him vulnerable to recurrent accusations
that he is the pawn of foreign interests, a man who does not have
the national interest at heart.
This perception has not been helped by his plans for an
economic union with India, especially south India. In October
2016 Mineka Wickramasingha, former Chairman of Ceylon Biscuits
Limited, warned of the dangers of the Economic and Technology
Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) with India. One of the first Sri
Lankan companies to set up a manufacturing business in India,
Ceylon Biscuits was forced to close down its operations in India
due to the hidden taxes, tariff barriers and administrative
opposition that it encountered.

They cannot buy our quality goods thus there is a huge trade
imbalance, Wickramasingha said.
Today, the government seems to be doing what India exactly
wants. If India asks the government to turn left, it will act
accordingly The government must be loyal to its people, not to
foreigners.
A pioneering entrepreneur and a highly respected figure in Sri
Lankan business circles,
Wickramasinghas comments reflect a deep-seated unease.
Pillars of the business community are now quite open in their
dissatisfaction with the current government. They point to several
factors, the lack of direction and consistency, coupled with a
crippling failure to deliver, compounded by an even more
crippling perception of being ineffective.
In the last three years of the Rajapaksa regime, economic growth
was high, ranging from 7- 8.5 percent. Since then the momentum
has been mostly downward, and the best that Sri Lanka can hope
for in 2017 would be about 4.5 percent. The country is struggling
to cope with the massive debt incurred by the previous regime
and there is mounting pressure for the rupee to depreciate
against the dollar. Without sufficient foreign exchange reserves,
Sri Lanka may not be able to avoid a massive depreciation of the
rupee and the runaway inflation that could go with it. Coupled
with all the other factors at play, it will only fuel the deepening
discontent.
The underlying currents are very clear: the SirisenaWickremesinghe administration has been unable to drive its
advantage home. With the stream of accusations, interrogations,
inquiries and arrests, it has only succeeded in generating
sympathy, resurrecting a damaged and discredited dynasty.

Despite all the dents of the last two years, Mahinda Rajapaksas
charisma and political appeal continues to endure. However,
under the constitution, he cannot return as president. Plus, his
legacy has also been tarnished by failure.
The silent figure in the equation is the former presidents brother,
Gotabaya Rajapaksa. His Facebook page, entitled New Hopes
Rising, looks to the future and hints at a new dawn. A powerful
political force, in the public mind Gotabaya Rajapaksa represents
achievement and doing, a man who will do what he says he is
going to do, to paraphrase de Silva once again.
In the Sri Lankan heartland, people are waiting for a change.
Towards the end of 2014, the Rajapaksas were the past. Now they
could be the future.
A historian and academic, Dr. SinhaRaja Tammita-Delgoda is an
authority on the art and culture of Sri Lanka. One of the few noncombatants to have been allowed in the war zone during the final
stages of the Eelam War, his work has been featured in the
national and international press and in military journals. He has
lectured in the U.K., United States, Canada and India.
Posted by Thavam