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Outline
Predicting Future PV
Motivation
Methods
Summary/Conclusion
PV-Caused Issues
http://www.ceati.com/projects/publications/publication-details/?pid=50%2F124
Todays PV Deployment
Residences with PV
Future PV
Could be like this?
Uniform Distribution of PV
Future PV
or like this?
PV Close to Substation
10
Future PV
or perhaps like this?
11
14
15
16
Installations History
10
0
8
10
11
Years
12
13
14
17
18
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
8
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
Years
19
20
General Idea
1.
2.
3.
4.
21
Number of Future PV
PV Panels Allocation
500
Installations History
Installation Prediction by Extrapolation
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
8
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
Years
22
Sectionalize Feeder
Area 1
Area 3
Area 4
Area 2
Area 5
23
Count Existing PV
Area 1
PVs: 4
Area 3
PVs: 3
Area 4
PVs: 1
Area 2
PVs: 3
Area 5
PVs: 0
24
Determine Probabilities
Area 1
PVs: 4
P: 25%
Area 3
PVs: 3
P:22%
Area 4
PVs: 1
P:17%
Area 2
PVs: 3
P: 22%
Area 5
PVs: 0
P:14%
25
Allocate Future PV
PV Panels Allocation Prediction
100
100
Sub-D1
Sub-D2
Sub-D3
Sub-D4
Sub-D5
80
70
60
Run 1
50
40
30
20
10
0
15
Sub-D1
Sub-D2
Sub-D3
Sub-D4
Sub-D5
90
80
70
Run 2
60
50
40
30
20
10
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
0
15
35
Years
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
90
80
Run 3
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15
16
24
25
Years
100
90
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Years
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
26
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Years
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
2015
2018
2021
2025
2029
2033
33
Stochastic PV allocation
Considers all possible outcomes.
Probability can be calculated for each possible outcome.
Monte Carlo runs consider changing allocation
probabilities after each calculation step.
34
Summary / Conclusion
Occurrence of PV-caused issues depends on
Number of PVs
Locations of PVs
35
Discussion
Content
Data sources and acquisition
Smart Meter and Sensor Data
18.07.2016
18.07.2016
10
11
12
14
15
16
17
18
18.07.2016
Q(U)
Qmax,ind
Q(U)
undervoltage
UQmin
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
overvoltage
1
1.01
1.02
UQmax
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07 U [p.u]
Qmax,cap
19
18.07.2016
U PV System
U
Submeter
U
Grid
Meter Household
PV System
Grid
Meter Household
a)
b)
Meter_Q_eff_1
Submeter_Q_eff_1
Meter_Q_eff_2
Submeter_Q_eff_2
2000
Meter_Q_eff_3
Submeter_Q_eff_3
Meter_Q_eff_1
Submeter_Q_eff_1
Meter_Q_eff_3
Submeter_Q_eff_3
1500
1500
1000
500
y = 259,37x - 61820
y = 296,29x - 69098
y = 243,89x - 56357
y = 167,11x - 38297
1000
y = 264,89x - 63102
y = 235,56x - 56216
500
0
230
-500
Meter_Q_eff_2
Submeter_Q_eff_2
232
234
236
238
Voltage [V]
240
242
230
244
-500
232
234
236
238
240
242
244
Voltage [V]
Q(U) control characteristic for a three phase inverter reconstructed with linear regression. The measurements for the validation
have to be filtered according to specific criteria out of the point cloud to identify the gradient of the characteristic.
20
18.07.2016
21
18.07.2016
22
18.07.2016
Methodology
Based on observations, e.g., 1s RMS voltages (PSSA - Power SnapShot
Analysis)
Correlations between observations of single meters based on Spearman
rank correlation coefficient
=
(()())
=
1
18.07.2016
Phase 2
Phase 3
Correlations of voltages per single phase of all meters for ca. 400 measurements (SnapShots)
24
18.07.2016
U Phase 2-3
U Phase 3-1
Correlations of voltage differences between two phases of all meters for ca. 400 measurements (SnapShots)
25
18.07.2016
Voltage drop diagram of a network with for feeders for a single SnapShop
26
18.07.2016
1 3 6
1 + 3 6
4
4
4
1
+ 2
+ 3
= 4
4
4 2
(1 + 2
+ 3
)
Correlations of modified unsymmetry factor k of all meters for ca. 400 measurements (SnapShots)
27
18.07.2016
()
(, ) =
28
=1
( )2
18.07.2016
Distances of correlations of each observation are shown as pseudo time series. Clustering of correlations in 5
clusters b) Hierarchy of clusters visualized as dendrogram
29
18.07.2016
Slack em ulat or
V
Tra fo s t a ti o n _ 0 8 5 7 2 _ L I TTRI NG_ HS
V
~
V
~
V
~
STRANG1 _ 0 8 5 7 2 0 1
STRANG3 _ 0 8 5 7 2 0 3
STRANG4 _ 0 8 5 7 2 0 4
STRANG2 _ 0 8 5 7 2 0 2
315810_AYY_4x150
543302/ 543303_XAY2Y_4x150
31790_AYY_4x150
3 1 5 8 0 5 a _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5
KK6 6 7 6 6
KK4 9 8 7 4
DA3 6 9 1 8
315828_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16
KK6 6 7 7 1
315791_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16
60241136
510502_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16
60241147
315811_AYY_4x150
60241149
315827_AYY_4x95
315792_XAY2Y_4x150
510500/ 543304_XAY2Y_4x150
keine AM - I D_XY2Y_4x16
510501_XAY2Y_4x50
315777_YY_4x16
3 1 5 8 0 5 b _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5
3035197
4412703
3035182
PV_PBNR_3. 22kWp[ 1]
315826_XAY2Y_4x50
60241128
PV_PBNR_4. 7kWp[ 1]
60817295
KK4 9 8 8 3
315821_AYY_4x50
60241126
60241151
KK4109128
543305_XAY2Y_4x50
543307_XAY2Y 4x150
60241150
3035184
3035193
4414524
3035249
M U3 8 1 8 0 2 3 2 6
keine AM - I D/ 315800_XAY2Y_4x150
315793_XAY2Y_4x50
PV_PBNR_9. 87kWp[ 3]
M U5 6 0 1 9 2 7 1
3035248
60241148
DA3 6 9 2 0 _ 6 0 2 4 1 1 4 1
315812_AYY 4x95
315822_AYY_4x95
315825_XAY2Y_4x50
3034906
PV _ P B N R_ 4 .6 kW p[ 1] (1 ..
60241137
KK6 6 7 6 7
3035186
4292717
3035183
PV _ P B N R _9 .6 6 kW p[ 3] (3 ..
3 1 5 8 0 5 c _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5
3035170
P V _P B N R _ 1 4 .2 6 kW p [3 ]
3035194
543308_XAY2Y_4x50
315813_XAY2Y_4x150
PV_PBNR_9. 6kWp[ 3]
KK6 6 7 7 0
KK6 6 7 6 8
KM A3 6 9 0 7 _ 6 0 2 4 1 1 4 4
315814_XAY2Y 4x150
60241127
60241152
KK1 0 4 6 6 1
M A3 6 9 2 1
315823_XAY2Y_4x50
60241129
3035180
M U5 6 0 2 1 7 0 5
315820_XAY2Y_4x50
315824_XAY2Y_4x50
3 1 5 7 9 4 _ A l_ 4 x5 0
3035185
510504_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16
510503_XAY2Y_4x50
PV _ P B N R_ 9 .6 6 kW p [3 ](..
PV _ P B N R_ 9 .6 kW p[ 3] (1 ..
3 1 5 8 0 5 d _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5 A56046050
3035162
315815_AYY_4x150
3035164
PV_PBNR_9. 66kWp[ 3]
PV _ P B N R_ 9 .8 7 kW p [3 ](..
60241130
60241132
3035190
3035198
DA3 6 9 0 8
KK6 6 7 6 9
315816_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16
315819_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16
60241135
60241134
3035163
4416159
315818_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16
315817_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16
60241131
60241133
3035172
3035187
60241146
KM A3 6 9 1 2
M A3 6 9 2 2
3035199
3035179
3 1 5 7 9 5 a _ A 2 Y _ 4 x5 0
3035176
3 1 5 8 0 1 a _ A l_ 4 x5 0
A56057846
3 1 5 8 0 1 d _ A l_ 4 x5 0
3 1 5 8 0 5 e _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5
3035196
M A3 6 9 1 5
DA3 6 9 0 9
DA3 6 9 1 3
M A3 6 9 2 3
3 1 5 8 0 1 b _ A l_ 4 x5 0
3 1 5 7 9 5 b _ A 2 Y _ 4 x5 0
3 1 5 8 0 1 e _ A l_ 4 x5 0
315805f _A2Y_4x95
DA3 6 9 1 6
DA3 6 9 1 0 _ 6 0 2 4 1 1 4 3
60241145
DA3 6 9 2 4 _ 6 0 2 4 1 1 4 0
3035181
3 1 5 7 9 6 a _ A l_ 4 x5 0
3035175
3035191
3035254
3 1 5 8 0 1 c _ A l_ 4 x5 0
PV _ P B N R_ 9 .6 6 kW p [3 ](..
3 1 5 8 0 5 g _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5
PV_PBNR_4. 6kWp[ 1]
M A3 0 9 8 9 5
DA3 6 9 1 7
M A3 6 9 2 5
3 1 5 7 9 6 b _ A l_ 4 x5 0
3 1 5 8 0 5 h _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5 A56043169
M A3 0 9 8 9 4
M A3 6 9 2 6
3 1 5 7 9 6 c _ A l_ 4 x5 0
315805i_A2Y_4x95
KM A3 6 9 1 1
315797_YY_4x16
M A3 6 9 2 7
60241142
A56050556
315805j_A2Y_4x95
3035192
PV_PBNR_9. 89kWp[ 3]
M A3 6 9 2 8
3 1 5 8 0 5 k_ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5
M A3 6 9 2 9
315805l_A2Y_4x95
DA3 6 9 3 0 _ 6 0 2 4 1 1 3 9
3035178
315805m _A2Y_4x95
PV_PBNR_11. 5kWp[ 3]
M A3 6 9 3 1
3 1 5 8 0 5 n _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5
M A3 6 9 3 2
3 1 5 8 0 5 o _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5
M A3 6 9 3 3
3 1 5 8 0 5 p _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5 A5604388
DA3 6 9 3 4 _ 6 0 2 4 1 1 3 8
3035174
PV_PBNR_4. 8kWp[ 1]
18.07.2016
31
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all snapshots
32
18/07/2016
one snapshot
33
18/07/2016
Visualization for of relations of number of voltage unbalance events (color and width of
edges) which are occuring at the same time at meters (color and size of nodes).
34
18/07/2016
Visualizations of the number of voltage unbalance events at the same time (color of edges) related to other
meters. Note that the isolated events on the bottom are happening unrelated to all other events in the network.
35
18/07/2016
Visualizations of the number of voltage unbalance events at the same time (color of edges) related to other
meters. Note that the isolated events on the bottom are happening unrelated to all other events in the network.
36
18/07/2016
Interpretation
Frequent event is a slight
unbalance (asym_3v_voltage)
Singe phase infeed causes no
unbalance
High voltage independent
from other events
Relation of events which happen at the same moment in time, for individual meters.
Events of high_single_voltage_253v are independent from feed-in and asymmetry events.
37
18/07/2016
Peak 4kW
reactive power
Interpretation
Frequent event is a slight
unbalance (asym_3v_voltage)
Singe phase infeed causes no
unbalance
High voltage independent
from other events
Asymmetric 1000W
reactive power
Asymmetric 600W
reactive power
Relation of events which happen at the same moment in time, for individual meters.
Events of high_single_voltage_253v are independent from feed-in and asymmetry events.
38
18/07/2016
39
Conclusion
Discovery and exploration
Open source ecosystem (R, python/anaconda, Java, PostGRES, )
Commercial solutions operationalize methods
Visualisation and Interactivity
40
Faculty Resident
Clouds
Few
Clouds
Variability Index:
t = 15 min 58 sec
Control Logic
Load-Flow
Control Logic
Load-Flow
10
Z
S
11
Segment
Zs = 3/23
Vs = 1.05
Iin
Z1 = 1/31
Z2 = 3/47
S2 = 1/19
Z3 = 1/71
Vin
Iout
Vout
S1 = 1/7
Se = 1/17
12
Load-flow is solved for the full model to obtain inputoutput voltage and current measurements.
Segment
0.277691 Iin
Iout 0.058589
1.013779 Vin
Vout 1.003996
13
Segment
0.277691 Iin
Iout 0.058589
1.013779 Vin
Vout 1.003996
14
Segment
Z = 0.035230
S = 0.219977
15
16
17
0
50 kA (sc)
Vsrc
1
0.15 mi.
2
0.175 mi.
66.7 kVA
50.0 kVA
3
0.2 mi.
4
0.125 mi.
33.3 kVA
100 kVA
5
0.225 mi.
6
0.125 mi.
142 kVA
167 kVA
18
The model was simplified by induction using the oneload constant-power topology.
Segment
Iin
Iout
0
50 kA (sc)
Vsrc
Vin
Vout
Z
S
167 kVA
19
Mean
0.009734 %
Minimum
0.000417 %
Maximum
0.011667 %
20
Mean
0.082798 %
Minimum
0.000000 %
Maximum
0.315417 %