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1

Predicting Future PV Deployment


On Distribution Feeder
Jens Schoene & Bikash Poudel, EnerNex
July 2016

Outline
Predicting Future PV
Motivation
Methods
Summary/Conclusion

Motivation for Predicting Future PV

Predicting PV-Caused Effects

PV-Caused Issues
http://www.ceati.com/projects/publications/publication-details/?pid=50%2F124

PV Caused Issues Depend On


Feeder
Characteristics
PV System Size
PV Penetration
Level
PV Allocation
within Feeder
Subject of Todays Presentation

Todays PV Deployment

Residences with PV

Future PV
Could be like this?

Uniform Distribution of PV

Future PV
or like this?

PV Close to Substation

10

Future PV
or perhaps like this?

PV Far Away from Substation

11

Clustering likely due to


economic factors: high-income households are
more likely to purchase PV.
locational factors: clear areas (no shading by
for instance large trees) more likely to receive PV.
peer effect.

Peer Effect: Neighbors without PV

Peer Effect: Neighbors with PV

14

Methods for Predicting Future PV


How Many PVs?
Where will they be located?

15

How Many PVs?

16

Step #1: Determine Trend using Historical Data


First Choice: Use PV installation history of feeder.
PV Panels Allocation
12

Number of Rooftop Panels

Installations History

10

0
8

10

11

Years

12

13

14

17

Installation History may not be available


Second Choice: Use DOE data

Source: SunShot Factsheet 2015, Department of Energy

18

Step #2: Extrapolate


PV Panels Allocation
500
Installations History
Installation Prediction by Extrapolation

Number of Rooftop Panels

450
400
350
300
250
200
150

Quadratic Fit, y = ax2+bx+c

100
50
0
8

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

Years

19

Where will the PV be located?

20

General Idea
1.
2.
3.
4.

Determine number of future PV


Sectionalize feeder
Count existing PV in each section
Calculate probability of each section receiving future
PV, based on how many PVs are already there.
5. Allocate Future PV based on these probabilities.

21

Number of Future PV
PV Panels Allocation
500
Installations History
Installation Prediction by Extrapolation

Number of Rooftop Panels

450
400
350
300
250

Six more PVs predicted


for next year.

200
150
100
50
0
8

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

Years

22

Sectionalize Feeder
Area 1

Area 3

Area 4

Area 2
Area 5

23

Count Existing PV
Area 1
PVs: 4

Area 3
PVs: 3

Area 4
PVs: 1

Area 2
PVs: 3

Area 5
PVs: 0

24

Determine Probabilities
Area 1
PVs: 4
P: 25%

Area 3
PVs: 3
P:22%
Area 4
PVs: 1
P:17%

Area 2
PVs: 3
P: 22%

Area 5
PVs: 0
P:14%

25

Allocate Future PV
PV Panels Allocation Prediction

PV Panels Allocation Prediction

100

100
Sub-D1
Sub-D2
Sub-D3
Sub-D4
Sub-D5

Number of Rooftop Panels

80
70
60

Run 1

50
40
30
20
10
0
15

Sub-D1
Sub-D2
Sub-D3
Sub-D4
Sub-D5

90
80
70

Run 2

60
50
40
30
20
10

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

0
15

35

Years

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

PV Panels Allocation Prediction


Sub-D1
Sub-D2
Sub-D3
Sub-D4
Sub-D5

90
80

Run 3

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15

16

24

25

Years

100

Number of Rooftop Panels

Number of Rooftop Panels

90

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Years

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

26

Possible PV Allocations for Area 1


Similar graphs for other four areas
PV Panels Allocation for Sub-Division 1
100

Number of Rooftop Panels

90
80
70
60
50
40
30

Stochastic (Monte Carlo)


Deterministic (Extrapolation)

20
10
0
15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Years

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

2015

2018

2021

2025

2029

2033

33

Deterministic vs. Stochastic


Deterministic PV allocation
Provides only one outcome.
Most likely outcome, but will probably not happen
(because there are many other probable outcomes).

Stochastic PV allocation
Considers all possible outcomes.
Probability can be calculated for each possible outcome.
Monte Carlo runs consider changing allocation
probabilities after each calculation step.

34

Summary / Conclusion
Occurrence of PV-caused issues depends on
Number of PVs
Locations of PVs

Determine number of PVs by extrapolating


historical trends.
Determine PV locations by sectionalizing
feeder and allocating future PV based on
probabilities determined from existing PV.

35

Discussion

Data-driven methods for distribution system


planning and operation based on stochastic
smart meter measurement data.
Panel Session: Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of
Distribution Systems/Microgrids
IEEE PES General Meeting, Boston, 2016
Matthias Stifter Austrian Institute of Technology

Content
Data sources and acquisition
Smart Meter and Sensor Data

Examples of data-driven methods


Voltage dependency of loads
Load characteristics with renewables
Validation of inverter control characteristics
Topology assignment based on correlations
Unsymmetry discovery

Data sources and acquisition

A. Abart, B. Bletterie, D. Burnier, M. Stifter, H. Brunner, A. Lugmaier, and A. Schenk,


Power SnapShot Analysis: A New Method for Analyzing Low Voltage Grids Using a
Smart Metering System, CIRED, 2011.
A. Einfalt, A. Lugmaier, F. Kupzog, and H. Brunner, Control strategies for smart low
voltage grids - The project DG DemoNet Smart LV Grid, CIRED 2012

Data sources and acquisition


Sensor data
1 sec time series of 3 phases (Power Quality measurement devices)
2-3 min asynch and sync measurements (Grid Monitoring Devices)

Smart meter data


15 min averaged load profiles
1 sec stochastic synchronized measurements

Power Snap Shot Analysis Method (PSSA)


Full determined network state with synchronized measurements
Synchronized measurements per meter: 1 sec-RMS of V, I, P, Q per phase
10 most interesting snapshots out of 900 seconds are selected
> 100 Million snapshots for 40 networks

Voltage drop diagram of one feeder for one snapshot

18.07.2016

Voltages displayed on the geographical map (GIS)

Online/Real-time Voltage Measurements


Express Grid Data Access (EGDA)

2/5 min mean actual values


Update every 2-3 minutes

LV Dashboard showing Transformer voltages and tap


position, as well as voltage measurements from the grid

18.07.2016

Voltage dependency of loads

J. Marchgraber, E. Xypolytou, I. Lupandina, W. Gawlik, M. Stifter, Measurement-based


determination of static load models in a low voltage grid, ISGT Europe 2016

Voltage dependency of loads


Determining parameters of an exponential load model at the
LV side of a transformers
1 second resolution data over a year
Clustered for ToD, weekdays and seasons
Analysed with parallel database and MapReduce

10

Voltage dependency of loads


Behavior of the active power of a load during a voltage step
(black line no voltage dependency, red line voltage dependency)

11

Voltage dependency of loads


Histogram of dU (consecutive voltage
measurements)

Hypotethical measurements of a ZIP


model with a0, a1 and a2 to be 1/3

12

Voltage dependency of loads


active power as well as voltage for all
events of the first hour of the day with
the measurement values before and
after the event

14

Load characteristics with renewables

B. Mysore, M. Stifter, P. Zehetbauer, Methodology for creating Composite Standard Load


Profiles based on Real Load Profile Analysis, ISGT Europe 2016

15

Load characteristics with renewables


Standard Load Profiles for households (H0) are changing due to behavior,
devices (e.g. heat pump) and renewables
15 min average load profile data

16

Load characteristics with renewables


Analysis of impact from PV on household load

17

Load characteristics with renewables


Analysis of impact from PV on household load

Validation of inverter voltage


control characteristics

18

18.07.2016

Validation of inverter voltage control


characteristics
Voltage dependent control of reactive power Q(U)
Stochastic 1 sec samples (preserve privacy), supported by many meters

Q(U)

Qmax,ind
Q(U)
undervoltage

UQmin
0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

overvoltage
1

1.01

1.02

UQmax
1.03

1.04

1.05

1.06

1.07 U [p.u]

Qmax,cap

Q(U) characteristic with deadband and overvoltage injection limitation

19

18.07.2016

Q(U) control characteristic for a single phase inverter


reconstructed with voltage and reactive power measurements with
1 second values (PSSA). Note: Deviations because of differing
parameters of the control characteristic.

Validation of inverter voltage control


characteristics
Only sum measurement available at household level
Submeter

U PV System
U

Submeter
U
Grid

Meter Household

PV System

Grid

Meter Household

a)

b)

Filter of points on curve and linear/polynomial regression


2000

Meter_Q_eff_1
Submeter_Q_eff_1

Meter_Q_eff_2
Submeter_Q_eff_2

2000

Meter_Q_eff_3
Submeter_Q_eff_3

Meter_Q_eff_1
Submeter_Q_eff_1

Reactive Power [VAr]

Reactive Power [VAr]

Meter_Q_eff_3
Submeter_Q_eff_3

1500

1500

1000

500

y = 259,37x - 61820

y = 296,29x - 69098
y = 243,89x - 56357
y = 167,11x - 38297
1000

y = 264,89x - 63102
y = 235,56x - 56216
500

0
230
-500

Meter_Q_eff_2
Submeter_Q_eff_2

232

234

236

238

Voltage [V]

240

242

230

244
-500

232

234

236

238

240

242

244

Voltage [V]

Q(U) control characteristic for a three phase inverter reconstructed with linear regression. The measurements for the validation
have to be filtered according to specific criteria out of the point cloud to identify the gradient of the characteristic.

20

18.07.2016

Validation of inverter voltage control


characteristics
Visualisation for
one network

Projects ISOLVES and iNIS


(Source: Andreas Abart, Netz
Obersterreich and AIT)

21

18.07.2016

Topology assignment based


on correlations between meters
K. Diwold, M. Stifter, P. Zehetbauer, Network and Feeder Assignment of Smart
Meters based on Communication and Measurement Data, IEEE EDST 2015

22

18.07.2016

Methodology
Based on observations, e.g., 1s RMS voltages (PSSA - Power SnapShot
Analysis)
Correlations between observations of single meters based on Spearman
rank correlation coefficient
=

(()())

Correlation coefficient matrix


11

=
1

Pivot matrix for ordering (reorder row/column)


=
23

18.07.2016

Voltage Correlations between Meters (1)


Correlation coefficients of voltages per phase of all meters
Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3

Correlations of voltages per single phase of all meters for ca. 400 measurements (SnapShots)

24

18.07.2016

Voltage Correlations between Meters (2)


Correlation coefficients of voltage differences of two phases of all
meters
U Phase 1-2

U Phase 2-3

U Phase 3-1

Correlations of voltage differences between two phases of all meters for ca. 400 measurements (SnapShots)

25

18.07.2016

Voltage Correlations between Meters (3)


Unsymmetry
is distinct on a feeder
different between measurements (SnapShots)

Voltage drop diagram of a network with for feeders for a single SnapShop
26

18.07.2016

Voltage Correlations between Meters (4)


Correlation coefficients of modified unsymmetry factor of all meters
Modified Unsymmetry Factor k

1 3 6
1 + 3 6

4
4
4
1
+ 2
+ 3
= 4
4
4 2
(1 + 2
+ 3
)

Correlations of modified unsymmetry factor k of all meters for ca. 400 measurements (SnapShots)

27

18.07.2016

Assignment within feeders (1)


Hierarchical clustering based on Correlations of unsymmetry coefficient
Scaling of the correlation matrix (to compare clusters)
Correlations of voltages between single meters based on Spearman rank
order correlation
=

()

Calculation of distance matrix (Euclidean norm) of correlations

(, ) =

28

=1

( )2

18.07.2016

Assignment within feeders (2)


Visualisation of clusters as pseudo time series and dendrogram for a
network with 5 feeders

Distances of correlations of each observation are shown as pseudo time series. Clustering of correlations in 5
clusters b) Hierarchy of clusters visualized as dendrogram

29

18.07.2016

Assignment within feeders (3)


Comparision of network topology and clustering results:
Low voltage networks with 4 feeders
30_kV_Net z

Slack em ulat or

V
Tra fo s t a ti o n _ 0 8 5 7 2 _ L I TTRI NG_ HS

V
~

LS/ TR Schalt er _STRANG 1

V
~

UL3N aus PSS

ON_ 0 8 5 7 2 _ L ITTRI NG_ NS-Ve rt e il e r

UL2N aus PSS

UL1N aus PSS

O N_Traf o_19654_160kVA_30. 1/ 0. 42_kV

V
~

LS/ TR Schalt er _STRANG 3

LS/ TR Schalt er _STRANG 4

LS/ TR Schalt er _STRANG 2

STRANG1 _ 0 8 5 7 2 0 1

STRANG3 _ 0 8 5 7 2 0 3

STRANG4 _ 0 8 5 7 2 0 4

STRANG2 _ 0 8 5 7 2 0 2

315810_AYY_4x150

543302/ 543303_XAY2Y_4x150

31790_AYY_4x150
3 1 5 8 0 5 a _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5

KK6 6 7 6 6

KK4 9 8 7 4
DA3 6 9 1 8

315828_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16

KK6 6 7 7 1

315791_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16

60241136

510502_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16

60241147
315811_AYY_4x150

60241149

315827_AYY_4x95

315792_XAY2Y_4x150

510500/ 543304_XAY2Y_4x150

keine AM - I D_XY2Y_4x16

510501_XAY2Y_4x50

315777_YY_4x16

3 1 5 8 0 5 b _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5
3035197

4412703

3035182

PV_PBNR_3. 22kWp[ 1]

315826_XAY2Y_4x50

60241128

PV_PBNR_4. 7kWp[ 1]

60817295

KK4 9 8 8 3

315821_AYY_4x50

60241126

60241151

KK4109128
543305_XAY2Y_4x50
543307_XAY2Y 4x150

60241150
3035184

3035193

4414524

3035249

M U3 8 1 8 0 2 3 2 6

keine AM - I D/ 315800_XAY2Y_4x150

315793_XAY2Y_4x50
PV_PBNR_9. 87kWp[ 3]

M U5 6 0 1 9 2 7 1
3035248

60241148

DA3 6 9 2 0 _ 6 0 2 4 1 1 4 1
315812_AYY 4x95

315822_AYY_4x95

315825_XAY2Y_4x50

3034906

PV _ P B N R_ 4 .6 kW p[ 1] (1 ..

60241137

KK6 6 7 6 7

3035186

4292717

3035183

PV _ P B N R _9 .6 6 kW p[ 3] (3 ..

3 1 5 8 0 5 c _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5

3035170

P V _P B N R _ 1 4 .2 6 kW p [3 ]

3035194

543308_XAY2Y_4x50

315813_XAY2Y_4x150
PV_PBNR_9. 6kWp[ 3]

KK6 6 7 7 0

KK6 6 7 6 8

KM A3 6 9 0 7 _ 6 0 2 4 1 1 4 4
315814_XAY2Y 4x150

60241127

60241152

KK1 0 4 6 6 1

M A3 6 9 2 1

315823_XAY2Y_4x50

60241129
3035180

M U5 6 0 2 1 7 0 5

315820_XAY2Y_4x50

315824_XAY2Y_4x50

3 1 5 7 9 4 _ A l_ 4 x5 0

3035185
510504_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16

510503_XAY2Y_4x50

PV _ P B N R_ 9 .6 6 kW p [3 ](..

PV _ P B N R_ 9 .6 kW p[ 3] (1 ..

3 1 5 8 0 5 d _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5 A56046050
3035162

315815_AYY_4x150

3035164

PV_PBNR_9. 66kWp[ 3]

PV _ P B N R_ 9 .8 7 kW p [3 ](..

60241130

60241132

3035190

3035198

DA3 6 9 0 8

KK6 6 7 6 9
315816_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16

315819_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16

60241135

60241134

3035163

4416159

315818_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16

315817_HA_f rd_Cu_4x16

60241131

60241133

3035172

3035187

60241146

KM A3 6 9 1 2

M A3 6 9 2 2

3035199

3035179
3 1 5 7 9 5 a _ A 2 Y _ 4 x5 0

3035176
3 1 5 8 0 1 a _ A l_ 4 x5 0

A56057846

3 1 5 8 0 1 d _ A l_ 4 x5 0

3 1 5 8 0 5 e _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5
3035196

M A3 6 9 1 5

DA3 6 9 0 9

DA3 6 9 1 3

M A3 6 9 2 3

3 1 5 8 0 1 b _ A l_ 4 x5 0

3 1 5 7 9 5 b _ A 2 Y _ 4 x5 0

3 1 5 8 0 1 e _ A l_ 4 x5 0

315805f _A2Y_4x95

DA3 6 9 1 6

DA3 6 9 1 0 _ 6 0 2 4 1 1 4 3

60241145

DA3 6 9 2 4 _ 6 0 2 4 1 1 4 0
3035181
3 1 5 7 9 6 a _ A l_ 4 x5 0
3035175

3035191

3035254
3 1 5 8 0 1 c _ A l_ 4 x5 0

PV _ P B N R_ 9 .6 6 kW p [3 ](..

3 1 5 8 0 5 g _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5
PV_PBNR_4. 6kWp[ 1]

M A3 0 9 8 9 5

DA3 6 9 1 7

M A3 6 9 2 5

3 1 5 7 9 6 b _ A l_ 4 x5 0
3 1 5 8 0 5 h _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5 A56043169

M A3 0 9 8 9 4
M A3 6 9 2 6

3 1 5 7 9 6 c _ A l_ 4 x5 0
315805i_A2Y_4x95

KM A3 6 9 1 1
315797_YY_4x16

M A3 6 9 2 7

60241142
A56050556
315805j_A2Y_4x95
3035192
PV_PBNR_9. 89kWp[ 3]

M A3 6 9 2 8

3 1 5 8 0 5 k_ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5

M A3 6 9 2 9

315805l_A2Y_4x95

DA3 6 9 3 0 _ 6 0 2 4 1 1 3 9

3035178
315805m _A2Y_4x95
PV_PBNR_11. 5kWp[ 3]

M A3 6 9 3 1

3 1 5 8 0 5 n _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5

M A3 6 9 3 2

3 1 5 8 0 5 o _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5

M A3 6 9 3 3

3 1 5 8 0 5 p _ A 2 Y _ 4 x9 5 A5604388

DA3 6 9 3 4 _ 6 0 2 4 1 1 3 8

3035174
PV_PBNR_4. 8kWp[ 1]

a) Network topology and b) hierarchical clustering (ca. 400 observations)


30

18.07.2016

Unsymmetry detection from data

31

18/07/2016

Unsymmetry detection from data


Voltage histogram per phase for one network

all snapshots

Histogram of the voltages per phase on one snapshot showing strong


asymmetric voltages. Note: the vertical dashed line marks the trigger of this
snapshot (determined by the lowest voltage of all of the three phases).

32

18/07/2016

Unsymmetry detection from data


Voltage histogram per phase for one network

one snapshot

Histogram of the voltages per phase on one snapshot showing strong


asymmetric voltages. Note: the vertical dashed line marks the trigger of this
snapshot (determined by the lowest voltage of all of the three phases).

33

18/07/2016

Analysis of unsymmetric events


Interactive visualisation of
unsymmetry events
Connection relates events at
same time but not same
event
Visualisation using
Collaborative Filtering und
Affinity Graph

Visualization for of relations of number of voltage unbalance events (color and width of
edges) which are occuring at the same time at meters (color and size of nodes).

34

18/07/2016

Detection of isolated unsymmetry events


Same event connecting meters for all snapshots
Event = strong asymmetry between voltages
Visualisation with Collaborative Filtering und Affinity Graph

Visualizations of the number of voltage unbalance events at the same time (color of edges) related to other
meters. Note that the isolated events on the bottom are happening unrelated to all other events in the network.

35

18/07/2016

Detection of isolated unsymmetry events


Same event connecting meters for all snapshots
Event = strong asymmetry between voltages
Visualisation with Collaborative Filtering und Affinity Graph

Visualizations of the number of voltage unbalance events at the same time (color of edges) related to other
meters. Note that the isolated events on the bottom are happening unrelated to all other events in the network.

36

18/07/2016

Interactive Analysis of Events and Relations


Definition of events, e.g.
total power,
single infeed of active or
reactive power,
unbalance

Single phase feed-in

Interpretation
Frequent event is a slight
unbalance (asym_3v_voltage)
Singe phase infeed causes no
unbalance
High voltage independent
from other events
Relation of events which happen at the same moment in time, for individual meters.
Events of high_single_voltage_253v are independent from feed-in and asymmetry events.

37

18/07/2016

Interactive Analysis of Events and Relations


Asymmetric 200W
reactive power

Definition of events, e.g.


total power,
single infeed of active or
reactive power,
unbalance

Single phase feed-in

Peak 4kW
reactive power

Interpretation
Frequent event is a slight
unbalance (asym_3v_voltage)
Singe phase infeed causes no
unbalance
High voltage independent
from other events

Asymmetric 1000W
reactive power

Asymmetric 600W
reactive power

Relation of events which happen at the same moment in time, for individual meters.
Events of high_single_voltage_253v are independent from feed-in and asymmetry events.

38

18/07/2016

39

Conclusion
Discovery and exploration
Open source ecosystem (R, python/anaconda, Java, PostGRES, )
Commercial solutions operationalize methods
Visualisation and Interactivity

Data Analysis Process


Data scientist and domain experts
Data Analytic Sprints Agile cycles of analysis

Data and Sources


Smart Meters can do much more than daily energy consumption (or
15 min aggregated profile)
A lot of data is produces can be discarded or aggregated
Quality is hard to achieve Courage to use incomplete data

40

AIT Austrian Institute of Technology


your ingenious partner
Matthias Stifter
Energy Department
Electric Energy Systems
AIT Austrian Institute of Technology
Giefinggasse 2 | 1210 Vienna | Austria
T +43(0) 50550-6673 | M +43(0) 664 81 57 944 | F +43(0) 50550-6613
matthias.stifter@ait.ac.at | http://www.ait.ac.at

Analysis of Stochastic Solar Generation Behavior on


Distribution Systems

PES General Meeting, Boston, MA


July 18, 2016
Thomas E. McDermott, tem42@pitt.edu
Andrew P. Reiman, apr28@pitt.edu

Pitt and Duquesne Light monitored PV output


variability at multiple sites, on a 1-second time scale.

Faculty Resident

Power quality monitors were used to collect data.

EATON SITE - 1,000 KW

BEITLER SITE 217 KW

Beitler PV Current for June 29th through July 5th

Clouds

Few
Clouds

Beitler July 4th and 5th Friday and Saturday

Variability Index:

The delay between even times at different sites can be


calculated.
Eaton Site: 14:29:58

Time Offset 0:03:10

Beitler Site: 14:10:50

t = 15 min 58 sec

Distance: ~24 miles

Is there a useable correlation between solar output and


building electrical load?

Quasi-Static Time-Series simulation with highresolution data is an alternative to Monte-Carlo


stochastic/probabilistic load-flow simulation.
Time-Series

Control Logic
Load-Flow

Reducing the complexity of the load-flow problem


decreases the computational burden of QSTS
exponentially.
Time-Series

Control Logic
Load-Flow

10

Transfer functions for this one-load constant-power


topology can be derived using KVL and KCL.

Z
S

11

A process of induction can be used to simplify a


segment with a constant-power one-load topology.

Segment

Zs = 3/23

Vs = 1.05

Iin

Z1 = 1/31

Z2 = 3/47

S2 = 1/19
Z3 = 1/71

Vin

Iout

Vout
S1 = 1/7

Se = 1/17

12

Load-flow is solved for the full model to obtain inputoutput voltage and current measurements.

Segment

0.277691 Iin

Iout 0.058589

1.013779 Vin

Vout 1.003996

13

Transfer equations for the simplified topology are used


to obtain the characteristic parameters Z and S.

Segment

0.277691 Iin

Iout 0.058589

1.013779 Vin

Vout 1.003996

14

The result is a simplified segment with a series


impedance and a single constant-power load.

Segment

Z = 0.035230

S = 0.219977

15

Baseline load-flow solutions of the full system can be


used to compare different simplification methods.

16

Constant-power approximation usually performs


better than constant-current.

17

A case study was performed using this circuit from


problem 3.3 in Kerstings Distribution System
Modeling and Analysis.

0
50 kA (sc)

Vsrc

1
0.15 mi.

2
0.175 mi.

66.7 kVA

50.0 kVA

3
0.2 mi.

4
0.125 mi.

33.3 kVA

100 kVA

5
0.225 mi.

6
0.125 mi.

142 kVA

167 kVA

18

The model was simplified by induction using the oneload constant-power topology.

Segment
Iin

Iout

0
50 kA (sc)

Vsrc

Vin

Vout

Z
S

167 kVA

19

The simplified model performed very well when a


global load shape was implemented.

Mean

0.009734 %

Minimum

0.000417 %

Maximum

0.011667 %

20

The results were still acceptable with separate


internal and external load shapes.

Mean

0.082798 %

Minimum

0.000000 %

Maximum

0.315417 %

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