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Reading:

3.1

Distributed Lags

Distributed lags deal with the current and lagged effects of an independent variable

on the dependent variable. That is:

yt = + 0 xt + 1 xt1 + 2 xt2 + . . . + et

=+

i xti + et

i=0

The immediate effect is 0 (AKA impact multiplier);

The long-run effect over all future periods is

tiplier);

The mean lag is

i=1

ii

P

j=0

i=1

iwi

The problem with the above model: an infinite number of coefficients. Two

feasible approaches are:

Assume i = 0 for i > some finite number.

Assume that i can be written as a function of a finite number of parameters

for all i = 1 to .

3.2

the coefficients of the current and lagged values of x, but we need to decide on p.

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Jonathan Yoder. All rights reserved

t-tests are usually not good for selecting lag length because lagged values of x

are likely to be highly correlated with current values. i.e. t-tests will have low

power.

Two better approaches, both based on the assumption that you know some

upper bound P for the lag length:

2 or minimizes the Akaike Info.

Choose the lag length p P that maximizes R

0

Criterion (AIC) = ln eTe + 2p

T .

Start with high P and do F-tests for joint significance of i . Successively drop

lags. Stop dropping lags as soon as Ho : i = 0i is rejected.

Both methods tend to overfit (leave too many lags in), so high significance

levels should be used for the F-test (e.g. = .01).

3.3

Two models, the Adaptive Expectations Model and the Partial Adjustment

Model have been used a great deal in the literature. They are two specific models

that imply a specific form of infinite distributed lag effects called Geometric lags.

3.3.1

Suppose the current value of the independent variables determines the desired value

or goal for the dependent variable:

yt = + xt + t ,

but only a fixed fraction of desired adjustment is accomplished in one period (it

takes time to build factories, restock diminished inventories, change institutional

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Jonathan Yoder. All rights reserved

|| < 1.

rearrange:

yt = (1 )1 (1 L)yt

replace yt with the r.h.s. above and rearrange:

(1 L)yt = (1 )( + xt + t )

yt = (1 ) + (1 )xt + yt1 + (1 )t

t + yt1 + t

=

+ x

OLS is consistent and efficient.

3.3.2

expectations change. Example: When input decisions (supply decisions) are based

on expected future prices.

yt = + xt+1 + wt + t

xt+1 = xt + (1 )xt

xt is the expected value for xt evaluated at time t 1, and 0 < < 1. The second

equation implies that the change in expectations from t 1 to t is proportional to

the difference between the actual value of x in period t and last periods expectation

about xt .

1. Rearrange the second equation to get xt+1 =

Page 93 WSU Econometrics II

(1)

(1L) xt .

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1

xt + wt + t

1 L

X

= + (1 )

i xti + wt + t

yt = +

i=0

= + zt () + wt + t ,

= (1 )

Greene p. 568.) Briefly,

1. Constructed a variable zt () that satisfies zt () = xt + zt1 . Use z1 () =

x1 (1 ).

2. pick a set of s in (0,1), calculate z()s, include it as one of the variables in

separate OLS regressions.

that minimizes SSE.

3. Choose

4. Use computer search and/or optimization routines to do this.

Note that the disturbances satisfy the CLRM assumptions, and if they are i.i.d.

normal, this recursive process (that minimizes SSE) is also Maximum Likelihood).

The autoregressive form is

yt = +

(1 )

xt + t

(1 L)

t + w

t + yt1 + ut

yt =

+ x

discussed above, you could also use Instrumental Variables approach (replace yt1 )

Page 94 WSU Econometrics II

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Jonathan Yoder. All rights reserved

3.4

The geometric lag is very restrictive regarding the relative impact of different

lagged values of x.

Unrestricted lags truncate and eat up DF.

the ARDL is a more general form that can accommodate and approximate a huge

array of functional forms. An ARDL(p, r) is defined as

yt = +

p

X

i yti +

r

X

i=1

j xtj + t ,

i.i.d t

j=0

C(L)yt = + B(L)xt + t ,

where

C(L) = 1 1 L 2 L2 p Lp and

B(L) = 0 + 1 L + 2 L2 + + r Lr

3.4.1

Estimation

yt = yt1 + t

yt =

yt1 =

X

t

=

i ti

1 L

i=0

i ti

i=1

So, yt1 is a function of t1 and all previous disturbances. The CLRM assumption

of E[0 X] = 0 holds if is i.i.d. (in this case X is lag y), because yt1 is not

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function of past disturbances, then Cov[yt1 , t ] 6= 0. OLS Biased, inconsistent.

Show for yourself that Cov[yt1 , t ] 6= 0 for a model with one lagged dependent variable on the right and an AR(1) disturbance

3.4.2

generally is

Pr

B(1)

i i

P

i =

Long Run multiplier =

= A(1) =

p

C(1)

1

i i

i=0

where A(L) =

B(L)

C(L) .

y =

B1 (1)

B2 (1)

Bk (1)

+

X1 +

X2 + +

Xk

C(1)

C(1)

C(1)

C(1)

where y and X

0

(L)

The Mean Lag is AA(L)

.

L=1

3.4.3

Consider an ARDL(2,1):

(0 + 1 L)

xt + t

(1 1 L 2 L2 )

B(L)

=

+

xt + t

C(L)

yt =

+

=

+ A(L)xt + t

=

+

i xt1 + t

i=0

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Jonathan Yoder. All rights reserved

to calculate i .

A(L)C(L) = B(L)

(0 + 1 L + 2 L2 + . . . )(1 1 L 2 L2 ) = (0 + 1 L)

(0 0 1 L0 2 L2 )+(1 L1 1 L2 1 2 L3 )+(2 L2 2 1 L3 2 2 L4 )+ = 0 +1 L

L0 :

0 = 0

L1 :

0 1 + 1 = 1

L2 :

0 2 1 1 + 2 = 0

L3 :

1 2 2 1 + 3 = 0

i and i .

0 = 0

1 = 1 + 0 1

= 1 + 0 1

2 = 0 2 + 1 1

= 0 2 + (1 + 0 1 )1

3 = 1 2 + 2 1

= etc.

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3.4.4

Consider an ARDL(2,1):

yT +1 |yT = 1 yT + 2 yT 1 + 0 xT +1 + T +1

= 0 xT +1 + T +1 ,

where

xT +1 = yT

0

yT 1

xT +1

Var[e1 |T ] = E[0T +1 T +1 ]

= x0T +1 2 (X0 X)1 xT +1 + 2

0

2

0

1

\

Var[e

xT +1 + s2 .

1 |T ] = xT +1 s (X X)

\

Var[e

1 |T ].

Assume that T +1 is the only source of uncertainty.

yT +1

T +1

yT 0

=

+0

y

0

T 1

..

..

.

.

0

p1

0

..

.

p yT

T +1

0

yT 1

0 yT 2 +

0

.

..

..

.

0

yT p

T +1 =

T +1 + CyT + T +1

y

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Jonathan Yoder. All rights reserved

where

T +1 = + 0 xT +1 + + r xT +1r is known with certainty (so forecasts are

conditional on xT +1 ).

Cov[T +1 ] = E[(

yT +1 yT +1 )(

yT +1 yT +1 )0 ] =

0

.

..

where j = 1

2 0

0

= jj ,

.. . .

.

.

0

2 .

Note:

The forecast errors T +i are included above for intuition about the forecast

variance. When calculating the point estimates y

of zero.

For T+2:

T +2 =

T +2 + CyT +1 + T +2

y

T +2 + C(

T +1 + CyT + T +1 ) + T +2

=

T +2 + C

T +1 + C2 yT + (CT +1 + T +2 )

=

Cov[CT +1 + T +2 )] = 2 (Cjj0 C0 + jj0 )

and Var[

yT +2 ] is the upper left element of 2 (Cjj0 C0 + jj0 ).

For F periods out

(normalize T to T = 0):

F

X

F = CF y0 +

y

F (f 1) + F (f 1) ]

Cf 1 [

f =1

"

Var[

yF ] =

jj +

F

1

X

#

i

i 0

[C ]jj [C ]

i=1

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Jonathan Yoder. All rights reserved

Example: ARDL(2,1):

T +1 1

yT +1

+

=

1

0

yT

2 yT

yT 1

0

where

T +1 =

+ 0 xT +1 + 1 xT . Remember, for calculating forecasts, T +1 = 0.

3.4.5

An AR(1) model

yt = xt + vt ;

vt = vt1 + t

can be written as

yt = yt1 + xt xt1 + t

which is an ARDL(1,1) with a restriction on the coefficient on xt1 .

AR(p) as a restricted ARDL(p,p):

yt = xt + vt ,

where vt = 1 vt1 + + p vtp + t

vt R(L) = t .

yt = xt +

t

R(L)

R(L)yt = R(L)xt + t

C(L)yt = B(L)xt + t for C(L) = B(L).

Implications

1. Any AR(p) disturbance in a static model can be interpreted as a restricted

version of an ARDL(p,p).

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of unaccounted-for ARDL process (i.e. a misspecified model).

E.g. an ARDL(2,2)model is

1 + 1 0 0

f (b) =

=

2 + 2 0

0

CFRs using characteristic roots.

ing the specification of ARDL models is based on the roots of the Lag operator

polynomials.

C(L) = (1 1 L 2 L2 )

B(L) = 0 (1 1 L 2 L2 )

= (1 1 L)(1 2 L)

= 0 (1 1 L)(1 2 L)

where i and i are characteristics roots (note, we just arbitrarily changed the signs

of 1 , 2 ). Then the ARDL(2,2) can be written as

or

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The model becomes an AR(1):

(1 2 L)yt = (1 2 L)0 xt + ut

where ut =

t

1L

1. The ARDL(2,2) has a white noise error, can be estimated consistently with

OLS.

2. The restricted model has a lagged dep. var and and AR(1) OLS is inconsistent.

Two possible approaches:

1. Estimate the unrestricted version (ARDL(p,r)); inefficient because the restriction is not imposed, but consistent.

2. Use IV with an instrument for the lagged dep. vars on right hand side; perhaps, for e.g., yt1 from a regression of yt on xt ...xtp .

Question:

3.4.6

ARDL(1,1):

subtract yt1 :

add,subt. 0 xt1 :

yt = + yt1 + 0 xt + 1 xt1 + t

yt = + ( 1)yt1 + 0 xt + 1 xt1 + t

yt = + ( 1)yt1 + 0 xt + (0 + 1 )xt1 + t

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1

1

to get

yt = + 0 xt + ( 1)(yt1 xt1 ) + t ,

, where

B(1)

C(1)

where =

0 + 1

1

=

B(1)

.

C(1)

correction model, or more precisely, the error correction form of the ARDL(1,1)

model. One more step:

yt = 0 xt + [yt1 (

+ xt1 )] + t

where

=

= 1

and = ( 1). yt is comprised of two components (plus

equilibrium-error correction. To see this, note that in equilibrium yt = yt1 = y,

and xt = xt1 = x

, so yt = 0 and xt = 0. Then the ECM is

0 = [yt1 (

+ xt1 )],

so

y =

+

x

Therefore, yt1 (

+ xt1 ) represents deviation from the equilibrium relationship

y=

+ x. 1 = ( 1) is the marginal impact of this deviation on yt .

Estimation: Assuming stationarity of y, all parameter of the ECM can be calculated based on estimates from the original ARDL(1,1) model. Alternatively, all

parameters of the ARDL(1,1) model can be calculated with the parameters from

the alternative specification

yt = 0 + 1 xt + 2 yt1 + 3 xt1 + t

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The results will be identical. Covariances can be calculated using the Delta method

if necessary. You could also estimate the ECM model parameters directly via nonlinear least squares.

3.5

Cointegration

integrated to the highest order of the variables.

If any of the variables are I(d) with d > 0, then many or all parameter

estimates and associated t statistics may be biased. Consider the regression

yt = x0t + t . If x and y are integrated of different orders, then t = y x0t

will not be stationary.

The exception: if two or more of the series are integrated of the same order

drifting or trending at the same rate then we may be able to find a linear

combination of the variables that are I(0).

If so, we can consistently estimate parameters and use standard inference

statistics without having to difference or de-trend the variables.

3.5.1

and ut are uncorrelated white noise errors. Both y1 and y2 are I(1), because their

first difference is stationary. Now consider the error process from a relationship

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between y1 on y2 :

yit = y2t + t

y1t

= 1

y2t

t = y1t y2t

= (3t + ut ) (t + vt )

= (3 )t + (ut vt )

This is a linear combination of two I(1) variables, and so would in most cases

be I(1), and the variance if t would explode as t increases (i.e. not stationary).

However, if = 3, then the t is I(0) stationary, implying that y1 and y2

are cointegrated: integrated of the same order.

1 = 1 3 (or any multiple of it) is called a cointegrating vector

of y1t and y2t .

3.5.2

yt = 0 wt + yt1 + 0 xt + 1 xt1 + t

can be written as

yt = 0 wt + 0 xt + (yt1 xt1 ) + t

yt = 0 zt + 0 xt + zt + t

Page 105 WSU Econometrics II

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If y and x are I(1), and wt are I(0), then is I(0) if zt = yt1 xt1 is

I(0).

Because is a function of the ARDL(1,1) parameters, a cointegrating relationship between the unrestricted ARDL parameters must hold for to be

stationary.

If such a relationship DOES hold, then will be stationary and we can estimate both the ARDL(1,1) form and the ECM form in a standard fashion

(OLS, NLS, with standard sampling distributions for the parameter estimates)

WITHOUT having to difference all the data.

If a cointegrating relationship does NOT hold, then the disturbance process

is not covariance stationary, and therefore the parameter estimates are not

covariance stationary, which means their sampling distributions are not stationary.

Note that when there is a cointegrating relationship, the regression above:

yt = 0 wt + 0 xt + zt + t

Generally: If an ARDL(p,r) can be reparameterized as an ECM model with I(0)

variables, then the parameters on those I(0) variables can be estimated consistently

with OLS applied to the original ARDL(p,q) model, and the t-statistics on these parameter estimates are asymptotically standard normal. If in a reformulated (ECM)

regression only a subset of the parameters are associated with I(0) variables, this

subset of parameter estimates have standard sampling distributions. The others

dont.

The next question: How do we know if a cointegrating relationship exists between the two variables?

Page 106 WSU Econometrics II

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3.5.3

and a multiple equation approach. We begin with the single equation approach and

discuss the multiple equation approach in the context of VARs.

(or I(0)) in the context of then the errors in a regression of one on the others

will be associated with a disturbance series that is I(0) . The Engle-Granger

cointegration test Proceed as follows:

Calculate a DF test statistic based on the errors from your hypothesized

regression: That is, run the regression

t = t1 +vt , and calculate

se(

) .

This test statistic does not have the same distribution as the usual DF test

statistic. You need to compare it to a different set of critical values developed

by Davidson and MacKinnon (1993) (Not shown in Greene).

If a unit root is not rejected, then no cointegration and inference relating to

model parameters based on that model is suspect.

Differencing of one thing or another is likely called for.

3.6

Usefulness of the VAR framework:

Forecasting

Testing Granger Causality

characterizing the time path of effects of shocks (impulse response).

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For two endogenous variables and known lag-length of p = 2, the VAR is a

two=equation model structured as:

y2t = 2 + 121 y1t1 + 122 y2t1 + 221 y1t2 + 222 y2t2 + 2t

or

y1t 1 111

= +

y2t

2

121

112 y1t1 211

+

122

y2t1

221

212 y1t2 1t

+

222

y2t2

2t

or

yt = + 1 yt1 + 2 yt2 + t

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Where jml is the coefficient for the j th lag in the mth equation on the lth endogenous

variable.

Estimation: VARs are systems of regression equations with interrelated errors, so

SUR seems appropriate. However, because there are no cross-equation restrictions,

SUR is mathematically equivalent to OLS equation by equation.

3.6.1

Granger Causality

yt = yt1 + xt1 + t

Generally, if xt1 adds information to yt in addition to that added by yt1 , x

Granger causes y.

Granger causality of x on y is absent when f (yt |yt1 , xt1 , xt2 , ) = f (yt |yt1 );

lagged values of x add no additional information.

This is a statistical relationship it does not imply causation in any sense

more general than this.

Example 19.8 (Greene), but extended to a VAR(2,2) here: increased oil prices have

0

preceded all but one recession since WWII. Let yt = GNP OIL PRICE .

GNP

t

1 1

= +

P OILt

2

1

2 GNPt1 3

+

2

P OILt1

3

4 GNPt2 1t

+

4

P OILt2

2t

otherwise it does.

testing for GC:

first the restricted and unrestricted regressions of the first equation (GNP) alone; no

Page 109 WSU Econometrics II

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need to estimate the second equation for this test. Test stat distributed 2 (J = 2).

3.6.2

Impulse response functions track the effect of a single shock (from one or more

disturbance terms i ) on equilibrium values of y on the time path of y after the

shock.

y1t 1 111

= +

y2t

2

121

212 y1t2 1t

+

2t

222

y2t2

112 y1t1 211

+

122

y2t1

221

or

yt = + 1 yt1 + + p ytp + vt

(mx1)

(mx1)

(mxm) (mx1)

(mxm) (mx1)

(mx1)

For forecasting we can use the same Kalman filter arrangement as with the ARDL

Pp

model before: Recast the general model yt = + i i yti + vt as

yt1 0 I

. =.+ .

. . .

. . .

ytp+1

0

0

yt

0

..

.

0

yt2 0

. + .

0 .. ..

ytp

0

0

yt1

or

t =

+ (L)yt + vt .

y

let (L) = 1 L + 2 L2 , so that yt = + 1 yt1 + 2 yt2 + t can be written

as

yt = + (L)yt + vt .

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[I (L)]yt = + vt

yt = [I (L)]1 ( + vt )

1

= [I (L)]

i vti

+

y

i vti

+ [I (L)]1 vt

y

eigenvalues must be less than one in absolute value (i.e. the moduli), whether or

not the eigenvalue(s) are real or complex. Note, the modulus of a complex number

h + vi is R = h2 + v 2 .

What we are interested in is how a one-time shock flows through to the yi,t+j . In

general, a set of impulse response function and its covariance matrix is calculated

as

T +s = y

+ s vT

y

T +s =

s1

X

i ( 0 )i

i=0

Example: Suppose a first order VAR with = 0 for both equations in.

y1t 0.008

=

y2t

0.232

0.461 y1t1 v1t

+ ;

0.297 y2t1

v2t

1 .5

= Cov[v1t , v2t ] =

.5 2

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Now, suppose a one unit change in v2t at t=0, such that v20 = 1. Then

y10 0

=

1

y20

0.461

y

0.008

0.461

y

10

11

=

=

0.297

0.232 0.297 y20

y21

2

y

0.008

0.461

y

0.008

0.461

y

0.141

12

11

10

=

=

=

y22

0.232 0.297 y21

0.232 0.297

y20

0.195

The covariance estimate for the two-period ahead impulse response is

1 .5 0.008

2 =

+

.5 2

0.232

0

0.461 1 .5 0.008 0.461

0.297 .5 2

0.232 0.297

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3.6.3

VAR can be applied to a set of nonstationary variables are and cointegrated (see

Davidson and Mackinnon section 14.5).

Consider the VAR with g endogenous variables Yt :

Yt = Xt B +

p+1

X

Yti i + Ut

i=1

where Yt are I(1), Xt are assumed I(0) deterministic variables, and B and i are

matrices of parameters to be estimated. This VAR can be reparameterized as

Yt = Xt B + Yt1 +

p

X

Yti i + Ut

i=1

Pp+1

i=1

i Ig . This

If the original variables Y are I(1) and the deterministic variables X are I(0),

then the rank r q of is equal to the number of cointegrating vectors. If r = 0,

there are no cointegrating vectors. r = g implies that all Y are stationary.

Note that the estimated value of will always be full rank (unless there is

perfect collinearity in the data to begin with, but then you wouldnt be able to run

a regression in the first place). The question is: can we test where our estimates

suggest one or more cointegrating vectors.

3.6.4

(Greene uses M ) in a VAR with I(0) variables, there can be up to g-1 cointegrating

vectors.

The Johansen test seems to be the most popular method for testing for cointegrating vectors in VARs. We will not go into detail about estimation, but there is

Page 113 WSU Econometrics II

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1. We need to the number r of linearly independent cointegrating vectors embedded in . This is done with successive tests of Ho : there are r or fewer

cointegrating vectors, versus Ha : there are more than r cointegrating vectors

(up to g).

2. For each r starting with zero, a trace statistic or max statistic is calculated,

depending on the approach. These statistics are asymptotically 2 [g r]. Big

statistic reject Ho , and move on to next r. When statistics<critical value,

accept null.

Note that r > 1 implies more than one possible long-run relationship represented by a number of possible parameterizations. This is similar to the case of

an overidentified structural equation. Indeed, a VAR is in effect a reduced form of

a dynamic structural equation. To identify which cointegrating relationship holds

requires out-of-sample structural information (as in structural models themselves).

3.6.5

Structural VARs

yt = + yt1 + t

where = 1 , = 1 , t = 1 vt , and Cov[t ] = [ 1 ] [ 1 ]0 .

Thus, we are simply back to simultaneous equation systems, but with the issues of

dynamics and simultaneity combined.

Example: Suppose that

1

=

21

Page 114 WSU Econometrics II

12

.

1

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Then we have a dynamic simultaneous equations problem, with all the lagged

dep. vars. being predetermined and therefore, for our purposes, exogenous.

Hsiao (1997) shows that if you have nonstationarity but cointegrating relationships in your model, then 2SLS and 3SLS can proceed as usual to address endogeneity.

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