Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Unifaced series: The early notes of the Bank of Bengal were printed only on one side and were issued as one gold mohur and
in denominations of Rs. 100, Rs. 250, Rs. 500, etc.
Commerce series: Later notes had a vignette representing an allegorical female figure personifying 'commerce'. The notes
were printed on both sides. On the obverse the name of the bank and the denominations were printed in three scripts, viz.,
{Urdu, Bengali and Devanagari}. On the reverse of such notes was printed a cartouche with ornamentation carrying the name
of the Bank.
Brittania series: By late 19th century, the motif 'commerce' was replaced by 'Britannia'. The new banknotes had more
features to prevent forgery.
Victoria portrait series: The first set of British India notes were the 'Victoria Portrait' series issued in denominations of 10,
20, 50, 100 and 1000. These were unifaced, carried two language panels. The security features incorporated the watermark,
the printed signature and the registration of the notes.
Underprint series: The unifaced Underprint series was introduced in 1867 as the Victoria Portrait series was withdrawn in
the wake of a spate of forgeries. These notes were issued in denominations of Rs 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and 10000.
George V series: A series carrying the portrait of George V were introduced in 1923, and was continued as an integral
feature of all paper money issues of British India. These notes were issued in denominations of Rs 1, 2, 5, 10, 50, 100,
1000, 10,000.
The Reserve Bank of India was formally inaugurated on Monday, April 1, 1935 with its Central Office at Calcutta. Section 22 of the
RBI Act, 1934, empowered it to continue issuing Government of India notes until its own notes were ready for issue. The bank issued
the first five rupee note bearing the portrait of George VI in 1938. This was followed by Rs. 10 in February, Rs 100 in March and Rs
1,000 and Rs 10,000 in June 1938. The first Reserve Bank issues were signed by the second Governor, Sir James Taylor. In August
1940, the one-rupee note was reintroduced as a wartime measure, as a Government note with the status of a rupee coin. During the
war, the Japanese produced high-quality forgeries of the Indian currency. This necessitated a change in the watermark. The profile
portrait of George VI was changed to his full frontal portrait. The security thread was introduced for the first time in India. The
George VI series continued till 1947 and thereafter as a frozen series till 1950 when post-independence notes were issued.
[edit] Republic of India issues
After Independence of India, the government brought out the new design Re. 1 note in 1949. Initially it was felt that the King's portrait
be replaced by a portrait of Mahatma Gandhi. Finally however, the Lion Capital of Asoka was chosen. The new design of notes were
largely along earlier lines. In 1953, Hindi was displayed prominently on the new notes. The economic crisis in late 1960s led to a
reduction in the size of notes in 1967. High denomination notes, like Rs. 10,000 notes were demonetised in 1978.
The "Mahatma Gandhi Series" was introduced in 1996. Prominent new features included a changed watermark, windowed security
thread, latent image and intaglio features for the visually handicapped.
[edit] Rupee coinage since the British period
Main articles: Indian coinage, British Indian coins, and Modern Indian coins
The British settlements in Western India, South India, and the Eastern Province of Bengal (Calcutta) independently developed
different coinages in consonance with the local acceptability of the coins for the purposes of trade.
1 Paisa coupon issued by Sayla state One rupee, Queen Victoria series, 1862 Half anna (2 paisa) coin; an anna = 4 paisa, George VI
series, 1945
The coins of Bengal were developed in the Mughal style and those of Madras mostly in a South Indian style. The English coins of
Western India developed along Mughal as well as English patterns. It was only in 1717 AD that the English obtained permission from
the Emperor Farrukh Siyar to coin Mughal money at the Bombay mint. The British gold coins were termed Carolina, the silver coins
Anglina, the copper coins Cupperoon and tin coins Tinny. By the early 1830, the English had become the dominant power in India.
The Coinage Act of 1835 provided for uniform coinage throughout India. The new coins had the effigy of William IV on the obverse
and the value on the reverse in English and Persian. The coins issued after 1840 bore the portrait of Queen Victoria. The first coinage
under the crown was issued in 1862 and in 1877 Queen Victoria assumed the title the Empress of India.
The 1911 accession to the throne of the King-Emperor George V led to the famous "pig rupee". On the coin the King appeared
wearing the chain of the Order of the Indian Elephant. Through poor engraving the elephant looked very much like a pig. The Muslim
population was enraged and the image had to be quickly redesigned.
Acute shortage of silver during the First World War, led to the introduction of paper currency of One Rupee and Two and a half
Rupees. The silver coins of smaller denominations were issued in cupro-nickel. The compulsion of the Second World War led to
experiments in coinage where the standard rupee was replaced by the "Quaternary Silver Alloy". The Quaternary Silver coins were
issued from 1940. In 1947 these were replaced by pure Nickel coins.
Immediately after independence, the British coinage was continued. The Monetary System remained unchanged at One Rupee
consisting of 64 pice, or 192 pies.
The "Anna Series" was introduced on 15 August 1950. this was the first coinage of Republic of India. The King's Portrait was
replaced by the Asoka's Lion Capital. A corn sheaf replaced the Tiger on the one Rupee coin. The monetary system was retained with
one Rupee consisting of 16 Annas. The 1955 Indian Coinage (Amendment) Act, that came into force with effect from 1 April 1957,
introduced a "Decimal series". The rupee was now divided into 100 'Paisa' instead of 16 Annas or 64 Pice.
With high inflation in the sixties, small denomination coins which were made of bronze, nickel-brass, cupro-nickel, and AluminiumBronze were gradually minted in Aluminium. This change commenced with the introduction of the new hexagonal 3 paise coin. A
twenty paise coin was introduced in 1968 but did not gain much popularity.
Over a period of time, cost benefit considerations led to the gradual discontinuance of 1, 2 and 3 paise coins in the seventies; Stainless
steel coinage of 10, 25 and 50 paise, was introduced in 1988 and of one rupee in 1992. The very considerable costs of managing note
issues of Re 1, Rs 2, and Rs 5 led to the gradual coinisation of these denominations in the 1990s.
[edit] Other issues
Main articles: Pakistani rupee, French Indian rupee, Portuguese Indian Rupia, and Gulf rupee
Pakistani issues: After independence, Pakistan adopted the Pakistani Rupee to fund the nation. Today, the notes feature the
father of the nation, Jinnah.
Jammu and Kashmir issues: Maharaja Rambir Singh introduced paper money on watermarked paper in 1877. The notes
were not very popular and were in circulation for a very short period. The notes carried the 'Sun' motif of the Dogra family.
Hyderabad issues: The Government of Hyderabad had made several efforts to organise private bankers to set up a banking
company which could issue paper money. The British, however resisted the attempts of Indian princely states to issue paper
currency. The acute shortage of silver during the First World War and the contributions of Hyderabad State to the British war
effort led them to accept, in 1918, paper currency in denominations of Rs.10/- and Rs.100/- issued under the Hyderabad
Currency Act. The currency was designated the Osmania Sicca (OS). Rupee One and Rupees Five notes were issued
subsequently in 1919 and Rupees One Thousand notes were issued in 1926. After the setting up of the India Currency Notes
Press at Nasik, Hyderabad notes came to be printed there.
Burma issues: Burma separated from India in 1938; however, the Reserve Bank of India acted as Banker to the Government
of Burma and was responsible for note issue in terms of the Burma Monetary Arrangements Order, 1937. In May 1938 the
Bank issued Burma notes which were not legal tender in India.
Indo-French issues: The French Indian rupee (FIR) was introduced by France's Bank of Indochina in French colonies of
India.
Indo-Portuguese issues : The Portuguese Indian Rupia was the currency of Portuguese India until 1959. It was divisible into
16 Tangas or 960 Reis. In 1959, the currency was changed to the Portuguese Indian Escudo, at the rate of 1 Rupia for 6
Escudos.
Persian Gulf issues: For many years in the early and mid-20th century, the Indian rupee was the official currency in several
areas that were controlled by the British and governed from India; areas such as East Africa, Southern Arabia and the Persian
Gulf. The rupees used in the Persian Gulf had been bought by the Gulf states from the Reserve Bank of India, who held the
sterling reserves by which the rupees had originally been purchased. However, Indian rupees were being smuggled from
India to the states of the Persian Gulf in exchange for gold. It was estimated in 1959 that the total amount of gold in private
hands in India was about $US1.75 to 2 billionroughly two thirds of the value of paper money in circulation. While it was
legal to own and to trade in gold within India, it was illegal to import or export gold. The Gulf Rupee, also known as the
Persian Gulf Rupee (XPGR), was introduced by the Indian government as a replacement for the Indian Rupee for circulation
exclusively outside the country with the Reserve Bank of India Amendment Act, 1 May 1959. After India devalued the rupee
on 6 June 1966, those countries still using it - Oman, Qatar and what is now the United Arab Emirates (known as the Trucial
States until 1971) - replaced the Gulf Rupee with their own currencies. Kuwait and Bahrain had already done so in 1961 and
1965 respectively.
Emergency issues, Princely states: During the 1940s, when mints were occupied for use in the war, an acute scarcity of
small coins was felt throughout India. Princely states in Western India like Balvan, Bikaner, Bundi, Gondal, Indergadh,
Junagadh, Jasdan, Kutch Mengni, Muli, Morvi, Mangrol, Nawanagar, Nawalgarh Palitana, Rajkot, Sailana, Sayla,
Vithalgadh, issued "Cash Coupons" to meet the shortage.
Hyderabad state OS Rs. 100 issu ..Five rupees, 1922..Portuguese Indian 1 rupee, 1924..French Indian 1 rupee, 1938..George
VI profile portrait, RBI, 1937
George VI profile portrait changed to frontal portrait, RBI, 1943..Two rupees, Republic of India
[edit] The fall of the Rupee
Price of silver Rate of exchange: 187172 to 189293
Price of silver (in
Rupee exchange rate
Period
pence per Troy
(in pence)
ounce)
18711872 60
23
18751876 56
21
18791880 51
20
18831884 50
19
18871888 44
18
18901891 47 11/16
18
18911892 45
16
18921893 39
15
Source: B.E. Dadachanji. History of Indian Currency and
Exchange, 3rd enlarged ed. (Bombay: D.B. Taraporevala
Sons & Co, 1934), p. 15.
After its victory in the Franco-Prussian War (187071), Germany extracted a huge indemnity from France of 200,000,000, and then
moved to join Britain on a gold standard for currency. France, the U.S. and other industrialising countries followed Germany in
adopting a gold standard throughout the 1870s. At the same time, other countries, such as Japan, which did not have the necessary
access to gold or those, such as India, which were subject to imperial policies that determined that they did not move to a gold
standard, remained mostly on a silver standard. A huge divide between silver-based and gold-based economies resulted. The worst
affected were economies with silver standard that traded mainly with economies with gold standard. With discovery of more and more
silver reserves, those currencies based on gold continued to rise in value and those based on silver were declining due to
demonetization of silver. For India which carried out most of its trade with gold based countries, especially Britain, the impact of this
shift was profound. As the price of silver continued to fall, so too did the exchange value of the rupee, when measured against pound
sterling.
coins of that period also mentioned their value in terms of the rupee to avoid confusion and cheating. For example, the one paisa coin
carried the text "One hundredth of a Rupee" in Hindi.
[edit] 1966 Economic crisis
Since 1950, India ran continued trade deficits that increased in magnitude in the 1960s. Furthermore, the Government of India had a
budget deficit problem and could not borrow money from abroad or from the private corporate sector, due to that sectors negative
savings rate. As a result, the government issued bonds to the RBI, which increased the money supply, leading to inflation. In 1966,
foreign aid, which was hitherto a key factor in preventing devaluation of the rupee was finally cut off and India was told it had to
liberalise its restrictions on trade before foreign aid would again materialise. The response was the politically unpopular step of
devaluation accompanied by liberalisation. Furthermore, The Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 led the US and other countries friendly
towards Pakistan to withdraw foreign aid to India, which further necessitated devaluation. Defence spending in 1965/1966 was
24.06% of total expenditure, the highest it has been in the period from 1965 to 1989 (Foundations, pp 195). The second factor is the
drought of 1965/1966. The sharp rise in prices in this period, which led to devaluation, was often blamed on the drought by
government.
At the end of 1969, the Indian Rupee was trading at around 13 British Pence. A decade later, by 1979, it was trading at around 6
British Pence. Finally by the end of 1989, the Indian Rupee had plunged to an all-time low of 3 British Pence. This triggered the onset
of a wave of irreversible liberalisation reforms away from populist measures.
[edit] 1991 Economic crisis
In 1991, India still had a fixed exchange rate system, where the rupee was pegged to the value of a basket of currencies of major
trading partners. India started having balance of payments problems since 1985, and by the end of 1990, it found itself in serious
economic trouble. The government was close to default and its foreign exchange reserves had dried up to the point that India could
barely finance three weeks worth of imports. As in 1966, India faced high inflation and large government budget deficits. This led the
government to devalue the rupee.
At the end of 1999, the Indian Rupee was devalued considerably.
[edit] Revaluation
In the period 20002007, the Rupee stopped declining and stabilized ranging between 1 USD = INR 4448. In recent times, the Indian
Rupee had begun to gain value and by 2007 traded around 39 Rs to 1 US dollar , on sustained foreign investment flows into the
country. This posed problems for major exporters and BPO firms located in the country. The trend has reversed lately with the 2008
world financial crisis. The changes in the relative value of the rupee has reflected that of most currencies, e.g. the British Pound,
which had gained value against the dollar and then has lost value again with the recession of 2008.
[edit] Valuation history
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2006
2007 (Oct)
2008 (June)
2008 (October)
2009 (October)
2010 (January 22)
2011 (April)
2011 (September 21)
2011 (November 17)
2011 (November 24)
2011 (December 15)
7.576
8.409
7.887
12.369
17.504
32.427
45.000
48.336
38.48
42.51
48.88
46.37
46.21
44.17
48.24
50.97
52.11
53.65
(tka) in Assamese
(taka) in Bengali
(rupiyo) in Gujarati,
(rupay) in Hindi
(rpyi) in Kannada and Tulu,
(rp) in Malayalam.
(rupaye) in Marathi,
(rupi) in Punjabi,
(rpyakam) in Sanskrit
(rbi) in Tamil,
(rpyi) in Telugu,
ni (haipur) Urdu
However, in Assam Valley, West Bengal, Tripura, Mizoram and Orissa, the Indian rupee is officially known by names derived from
the word
(Tanka) which means money.[4] Thus, the rupee is called
(tka) in Assamese,
(Taka) in Bengali and
(Tanka) in Oriya. The amount and the word "rupee" is accordingly written on Indian banknotes in 15 Indian languages.[5]
[edit] Symbol
On 5 March 2009, the Indian government announced a controversial contest to create a sign for the Indian rupee. [6][7] During the 2010
Union Budget, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee mentioned that the proposed sign would reflect and capture the Indian ethos and
culture.[8] Five signs created by Nondita Correa-Mehrotra, Hitesh Padmashali, Shibin KK, Shahrukh J Irani, and D Udaya Kumar [9][10]
had been short-listed[10] from around 3331 responses received and one of them was to be finalized at the Union Council of Ministers of
India meeting held on 24 June 2010.[11] The decision was deferred by a request of the Finance Minister,[8] and it was decided when
they met again on 15 July 2010,[12] and selected the symbol created by D. Udaya Kumar son of N. Dharmalingam, a former DMK
MLA.[13]
The selection process was challenged under the Right to Information Act in the Delhi High Court. The petitioner, Rakesh Kumar, who
was a participant in the competition, described the process as "full of discrepancies" and "flawed", and named the Finance Ministry
and the chairman of Indian Rupee Symbol Selection Committee as respondents. [14]
On 26 November 2010, the Delhi High single bench Court dismissed the writ petition, stating there was no justifiable ground for the
stated allegations.[15] But on March 31, 2011, Chief Justice and Justice Sanjiv Khanna of Delhi High Court in their judgment court
allowed RTI activist Rakesh Kumar Singh to file PIL against Indian Rupee symbol selection process.
According to Guideline No. 5 of the contest process, submitted symbols were required to be "in the Indian National Language Script
or a visual representation". It has been argued that this violates the Constitution of India, because that does not specify any particular
Indian Language Script as the Indian National Language Script.[16]
[edit] Numeral system
Main article: Indian numbering system
Although based on the decimal system is unlike western cultures; after a thousand the next major figure is not a million (thousand x
thousand) but a lakh (hundred x thousand) or 1,00,000; after this the next is not a billion (thousand x thousand x thousand)[going by
American English definition], but a crore (hundred x hundred x thousand) or 1,00,00,000 in numerical form. Therefore in Indian
English, values greater than or equal to hundred thousand Indian rupees are spoken of, written and counted in terms of lakhs (one lakh
= hundred thousand), and crores (one crore = ten million).
For example, the amount 3,25,84,729.25 is read as three crore(s), twenty-five lakh(s), eighty-four thousand, seven hundred and
twenty-nine rupees and twenty-five paise. The use of million or billion, as is standard in American or British English, is not common
and sometimes cause confusion to the ill informed and can lead to mis-translations and consequential problems.
[edit] History
Historically, the rupee, derived from the Sanskrit word raupya, which means silver, was a silver coin. This had severe consequences in
the nineteenth century, when the strongest economies in the world were on the gold standard. The discovery of vast quantities of silver
in the U.S. and various European colonies resulted in a decline in the relative value of silver to gold. Suddenly the standard currency
of India could not buy as much from the outside world. This event was known as "the fall of the rupee".
India was not affected by the imperial order-in-council of 1825 that attempted to introduce the British sterling coinage to the British
colonies. British India at that time was controlled by the British East India Company. The silver rupee continued as the currency of
India throughout the entire period of the British Raj and beyond. In 1835, British India set itself firmly upon a mono-metallic silver
standard based on the rupee. His decision was influenced by a letter, written in the year 1805, by Lord Liverpool that extolled the
virtues of mono-metallism.
Following the Indian Mutiny in 1857, the British government took direct control of British India. Since 1851, gold sovereigns were
being produced in large numbers at the Royal Mint branch in Sydney, New South Wales. In the year 1864 in an attempt to make the
British gold sovereign become the 'imperial coin', the treasuries in Bombay and Calcutta were instructed to receive gold sovereigns.
These gold sovereigns however never left the vaults. As was realized in the previous decade in Canada and the next year in Hong
Kong, existing habits are hard to replace. Just as the British government had finally given up any hopes of replacing the rupee in India
with the pound sterling, it simultaneously realized, and for the same reasons, that they could not easily replace the silver dollar in the
Straits Settlements with the Indian rupee, as had been the desire of the British East India Company.
Since the great silver crisis of 1873, a growing number of nations had been adopting the gold standard, however the Indian currency
system maintained its silver-standard tradition, which remained until it was replaced by a basket of commodities and currencies in the
late twentieth century.[citation needed]
The Indian rupee replaced the Danish Indian rupee in 1845, the French Indian rupee in 1954 and the Portuguese Indian escudo in
1961. Following independence in 1947, the Indian rupee replaced all the currencies of the previously autonomous states. Some of
these states had issued rupees equal to those issued by the British (such as the Travancore rupee). Other currencies included the
Hyderabad rupee and the Kutch kori. Nominal value during British rule, and the first decade of independence:
In 1957, decimalisation occurred and the rupee was divided into 100 naye paise (Hindi for "new paise"). In 1964, the initial "naye"
was dropped. Many still refer to 25, 50 and 75 paise as 4, 8 and 12 annas respectively, not unlike the usage of "bit" in American
English for dollar.
The One Rupee Banknote..The two-rupee banknote..French Indian 1 rupee (1938)..One rupee Obverse
[edit] The rupee on the East African coast and South Arabia
In East Africa, Arabia, and Mesopotamia the Rupee and its subsidiary coinage was current at various times. The usage of the Rupee in
East Africa extended from Somalia in the north, to as far south as Natal. In Mozambique the British India rupees were overstamped,
and in Kenya the British East Africa Company minted the rupee and its fractions as well as pice. The rise in the price of silver
immediately after the First World War caused the rupee to rise in value to two shillings sterling. In 1920 in British East Africa, the
opportunity was then taken to introduce a new florin coin, hence bringing the currency into line with sterling. Shortly after that, the
Florin was split into two East African shillings. This assimilation to sterling did not however happen in British India itself. In Somalia
the Italian colonial authority minted 'rupia' to exactly the same standard, and called the pice 'besa'.
India's first coins after independence were issued in 1950. They were 1 pice, , 1 and 2 annas, , and 1 rupee denominations. The
sizes and compositions were the same as the final Regal issues, except for the 1 pice, which was bronze but not holed.
[edit] Independent issues, decimal, 1957The first decimal issues of India consisted of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25 & 50 naye paise, as well as 1 rupee. The 1 naya paisa was bronze, the 2, 5
& 10 naye paise were cupro-nickel & the 25 & 50 naye paise & 1 rupee were nickel. In 1964, the word naya(e) was removed from all
the coins. Between 1964 & 1967, aluminum 1, 2, 3, 5 & 10 paise were introduced. In 1968, nickel-brass 20 paise were introduced,
replaced by aluminum coins in 1982. Between 1972 & 1975, cupro-nickel replaced nickel in the 25 & 50 paise as well as the 1 rupee.
In 1982, cupro-nickel 2 rupees coins were introduced. In 1988, stainless steel 10, 25 & 50 paise were introduced, followed by 1 & 5
rupee coins in 1992. Recently 5 Rupee coins made from Brass are being minted by RBI
Between 2005 & 2008, new, lighter 50 paise, 1, 2 & 5 rupee coins were introduced, all struck in ferritic stainless steel. The move was
prompted by the melting down of older coins whose face value was less than their scrap value.
The coins commonly in circulation are 1, 2, 5 & 10 rupees. Although they remain valid, paise coins have become increasingly rare in
regular usage.
The Indian Government has decided to phase out all paise coins.
The coins are minted at the four locations of the India Government Mint. Note the 1, 2 & 5 rupee coins have been minted since
independence. Coins minted with the "Hand Picture" are 2005 onwards.
[edit] Special coins
After independence, RBI minted coins having imprint of Indian statesman, historical and religious figures.
[edit] British India, 18611947
In 1861, the Government of India introduced its first paper money, 10 rupee in 1864, 5 rupees in 1872, 10,000 rupees in 1899, 100
rupees in 1900, 50 rupees in 1905, 500 rupees in 1907 and 1000 rupees in 1909. In 1917, 1 and 2 rupees notes were introduced. The
Reserve Bank of India began note production in 1938, issuing 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, 1000 and 10000 rupee notes, while the Government
continued to issue 1 rupee notes.
[edit] Independent issues since 1949
After independence, new designs were introduced to remove the portrait of the King. The government continued to issue the 1 rupee
note, while the Reserve Bank issued other denominations, including the 5000 and 10,000 rupee notes introduced in 1949. In the 1970s,
20 and 50 rupee notes were introduced but denominations higher than 100 rupees were demonetized in 1978. In 1987, the 500 rupee
note was introduced, followed by the 1000 rupees in 2000. 1 Rupee and 2 rupees notes were discontinued in 1995. 5 Rupees note will
be discontinued shortly. Conisation of notes till Rs. 20 is being planned.
In September 2009, the Reserve Bank of India decided to introduce polymer notes (polymer banknote) on a trial basis. Initially, 100
crore (1 billion) pieces of 10 denomination notes will be introduced.[19] According to the Reserve Bank officials, the polymer notes
will have an average lifespan of 5 years (4 times the regular Indian bank notes) and will be difficult to counterfeit. They would also be
cleaner than the regular notes.
[edit] Currently circulating notes
The design of banknotes is approved by the Central Government on the recommendations of the Central Board of the Reserve Bank of
India.[1] Currency notes are printed at the Currency Note Press, Nashik, Bank Note Press, Dewas, Bharatiya Note Mudra Nigam (P)
Limited presses at Salboni and Mysore and at the Watermark Paper Manufacturing Mill, Hoshangabad.
The current series of banknotes, which began in 1996, is called the Mahatma Gandhi series. At present, banknotes are issued in the
denominations of 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 500 and 1000. Printing of 5 notes which had stopped earlier restarted in 2009.
ATMs usually give out 100, 500, and 1000 notes. The Zero rupee note is not an official government issue but a symbol of protest
and it is printed and distributed by an NGO in India.
[edit] Languages
Each banknote has its amount written in 15 languages. On the obverse side, the denomination is written in English and Hindi. On the
reverse of each note is a language panel that displays the denomination of the note in 15 of the 22 official languages of India. The
languages are displayed in the alphabetical order. The languages included on the panel are Assamese, Bengali, Gujarati, Kannada,
Kashmiri, Konkani, Malayalam, Marathi, Nepali, Oriya, Punjabi, Sanskrit, Tamil, Telugu and Urdu.
[edit] Security features
The main security features of the current banknotes are listed below:
[edit] Convertibility
Most traded currencies by value
Currency distribution of global foreign exchange market turnover [21]
ISO 4217 code % daily share
Rank Currency
(Symbol)
(April 2010)
1
United States dollar USD ($)
84.9%
2
Euro
EUR ()
39.1%
Japanese yen
Pound sterling
Australian dollar
JPY ()
19.0%
GBP ()
AUD ($)
12.9%
7.6%
CHF (Fr)
6.4%
Swiss franc
Canadian dollar
CAD ($)
5.3%
HKD ($)
2.4%
SEK (kr)
2.2%
10
Swedish krona
New Zealand dollar
NZD ($)
1.6%
11
KRW ()
1.5%
12
Singapore dollar
SGD ($)
1.4%
13
NOK (kr)
1.3%
14
Norwegian krone
Mexican peso
MXN ($)
1.3%
15
Indian rupee
INR ( )
0.9%
4
5
6
Other
12.2%
Total[22]
200%
Officially, the Indian rupee has a market determined exchange rate. However, the RBI trades actively in the USD/INR currency
market to impact effective exchange rates. Thus, the currency regime in place for the Indian rupee with respect to the US dollar is a de
facto controlled exchange rate. This is sometimes called a "managed float". Other rates such as the EUR/INR and INR/JPY have
volatilities that are typical of floating exchange rates.[23] It should be noted, however, that unlike China, successive administrations
(through RBI, the central bank) have not followed a policy of pegging the INR to a specific foreign currency at a particular exchange
rate. RBI intervention in currency markets is solely to deliver low volatility in the exchange rates, and not to take a view on the rate or
direction of the Indian rupee in relation to other currencies.[24]
Also affecting convertibility is a series of customs regulations restricting the import and export of rupees. Legally, foreign nationals
are forbidden from importing or exporting rupees, while Indian nationals can import and export only up to 5000 rupees at a time, and
the possession of 500 and 1000 rupee notes in Nepal is prohibited.
RBI also exercises a system of capital controls in addition to the intervention (through active trading) in the currency markets. On the
current account, there are no currency conversion restrictions hindering buying or selling foreign exchange (though trade barriers do
exist). On the capital account, foreign institutional investors have convertibility to bring money in and out of the country and buy
securities (subject to certain quantitative restrictions). Local firms are able to take capital out of the country in order to expand
globally. But local households are restricted in their ability to do global diversification. However, owing to an enormous expansion of
the current account and the capital account, India is increasingly moving towards de facto full convertibility.
There is some confusion regarding the interchange of the currency with gold, but the system that India follows is that money cannot be
exchanged for gold, in any circumstances or any situation. Money cannot be changed into gold by the RBI. This is because it will
become difficult to handle it. India follows the same principle as Great Britain and America.
Chronology
1991 - India began to lift restrictions on its currency. A series of reforms remove restrictions on current account transactions
including trade, interest payments & remittances and on some capital assets-based transactions. Liberalized Exchange Rate
Management System (LERMS), a dual exchange rate system, introduced a partial convertibility of the Rupee in March
1992.[25]
1997 - A panel set up to explore capital account convertibility recommended India move towards full convertibility by 2000,
but timetable abandoned in the wake of the 1997-98 East Asian financial crisis.
2006 - The Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, asks the Finance Minister and the Reserve Bank of India to prepare a road
map for moving towards capital account convertibility. "The "Fuller Capital Account Convertibility Report"". 2006-07-31.
http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/72250.pdf. Retrieved 2009-01-23.
code 1996
2000
2004
2006
2009
2010
2011
U.S. dollar
52.170
6
Euro*
65.698
7
Pound sterling
83.632
9
Swiss franc
57.352
5
53.975
9
41.273
7
Devaluation means officially lowering the value of currency in terms of foreign currencies. There is a difference between devaluation
and exchange depreciation. Devaluation is the result of official government action. Depreciation or decline in the rate of exchange of
one currency in terms of another is due to market forces. Substantially devaluation and depreciation both refer to the reduction of
international currency in terms of foreign currencies. When the rupee was delinked from the dollar and floated against a basket of
currencies on Jan 8, 1982, the rupee parity stood rupees 9.90 to a dollar. The State Bank of Pakistan since then has devalued the
rupee a number of times. The rupee spot buying rate to dollar as on 1.6.2000 stands at rupees 54.
There could be many motives of the devaluation. It stimulates exports of commodities. It restricts import demand for goods and
services. It helps in creating a favourable balance of payments. Almost all the countries of the world have devalued their currencies
at one time or the other with a view to achieving certain economic objectives. During the great depression of 1930 devaluation was
carried by most countries of the world for the objecting of correcting over-valuation of currencies.
Indian Rupee Depreciation against the US Dollar - Your Questions Answered
In the previous post "Is the Indian Currency Rupee Depreciation against the US Dollar Good or Bad?" we had taken a look at the
reason why the Indian Rupee is getting beat up by the US Dollar in terms of value and why is the rupee going down so drastically.
However, after the post, you might've had some questions about the whole phenomenon. Some readers posted their questions as
comments.
Below are some questions that might arise in your minds about the Depreciation of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar. Have tried
to answer them as best I could. Do, drop a comment if you arent satisfied with the answer :-)
Thanks to Manish & Anonymous for the questions. I have included your questions too in the list below. Here we go!!!
1. Why is the Rupee Depreciating So Badly?
Because of many factors that are occurring in a simultaneous fashion. The crucial ones are:
1. Due to Risk Aversion on the part of Currency Investors, the Demand for the US Dollar has gone up world over
2. Uncertain Economic Situation around the globe
3. FIIs turning Net-Sellers and withdrawing funds from the Indian Market
2. In 2008, we saw a similar/drastic Rupee Devaluation against the USD. Is the current scenario similar?
Well, not really. Last time around, the devaluation was driven mainly by rise in Oil Prices. The price of oil reached USD 147 per
barrel and was one of the key contributing factors. However, Risk Aversion was also a part which affected the value of the Indian
Rupee.
Though the effect is the same, the combination of causes is different. Risk Aversion is the common culprit if you want to identify the
common cause
3. Has the Risk Aversion among the Investor Public changed when we compare the times in 2008 to now?
The concept of Risk Aversion is the same irrespective of what timeframe you are talking about. But, the current situation is much
more riskier & pronounced than what was in 2007-08. Back then, the problem was localized to debt problems (loans & mortgages) in
USA and had only a ripple effect across the globe. Right now, the problem is more profound and markets world-over are in a crisis
and some countries are on the verge of Default. So, people are much more risk averse than what they were in 2008 and hence the
situation is much worse than during the mortgage economic crisis.
4. How long do you think this economic crisis is going to last?
Well, frankly speaking I dont know speaking optimistically maybe a year or so. But, as more and more data comes out regarding
the mess that the world economies have pushed themselves into, the timeline gets blurred. Practically speaking, nothing major can
happen in short term (3 to 6 months). Any recovery can be felt or realized only after a year or so of sustained efforts from
governments world over.
5. Could the Reserve Bank done anything to protect the value of the Indian Rupee?
Yes, the RBI could have taken steps to protect the value of the Indian Rupee. But, unfortunately they did not. That is why Rupee is
dangling at over Rs. 52 per US Dollar.
6. Why didnt the RBI do anything?
The Central Bank of any country is entrusted with the responsibility of protecting the value of its home currency. They usually kick
into action when they suspect any speculative attack on their currency by external forces (Intentional attempts to devalue a countrys
currency)
In this case, the devaluation of the Indian Rupee was not due to some intentional attempt by anyone. It was due to the global economic
scenario and any steps they take might backfire if the global economic situation worsens.
The RBI just let the economy take its course with the exchange rate between US Dollar and Indian Rupee because there was no foul
play suspected.
A point to note here is that, the RBI is closely monitoring the situation and may intervene if they feel the depreciation is too much.
7. What can the RBI do to curb the depreciation of the Indian Rupee?
They can sell US Dollars. Last time around when there was such a problem, the RBI sold US dollars worth nearly 18 billion. This time
around, they would have to cough up an even larger number to prevent the depreciation. Most importantly, this will be only
temporary. The RBI selling dollars alone cannot fight the global dynamic risk and hence will not have any long term effect on the
exchange rate. That is exactly why the RBI isnt doing anything explicit to protect the rupee value.
8. What do you think the Indian Rupee will value against the US Dollar by next year (2012)?
Maybe around 46 or 47 Indian Rupees per US Dollar. To substantiate my claim, if the economic scenario recovers, there will be a lot
of FII inflow of funds into India that will give a lot of strength to the Indian Rupee. And hence, it should come down below the 50
rupee mark and settle down between 46 to 48 Indian Rupees per US dollar.
9. Will all IT companys post stellar profits due to the Rupee going down?
No. Not really. IT companys in India have the concept of Hedging their foreign exchange income. They usually hedge against a
particular value and project earnings/profit numbers for the subsequent quarters. So, the profit they make due to this rupee
depreciation may not be as stellar as one might expect, but nonetheless, IT Majors will most probably post impressive numbers this
quarter.
10. Will the Indian Rupee depreciate further against the US Dollar?
Maybe This is not something that we can predict right away. But, by the look of things it looks like it may go up by another one or
two rupees. Maybe 53 or 54 is realistic and possible.
11. If investors take out their investment from European countries to invest in US, would it have any effect on the exchange
rate of rupee?
Not much. US Dollar investments made in India only will affect the exchange value between US Dollar and Indian Rupee. US Dollar
investment in Europe will not affect the exchange rate in India
This article explores the reason behind the rupee value depreciation, how RBI trying to defend the rupee value and how it is going to
affect the industries. I come up with this article after the readers request to understand the currency war on recent days. If you have
any thoughts, please post it in the comments section. Subscribe to our future articles here.
How currency value is determined?
We are not going deep dive into economic terms to understand the currency value fluctuation. There are many
factors to decide the currencies values but that could be very difficult for the common man to understand the theory. Here I will put it
in the simple words why the currency value is often fluctuated. A currency will tend to become more valuable when its demand is
higher than supply. A currency will tend to become less valuable when its demand is less than supply. It is the basic theory. We need
to understand in the global economy terms, when the currency will have more demand and when it will have less demand.
Remember that exchange rates are expressed as a comparison of two currencies. It is always relative and can be measured
between two countries. Interest rates, Inflation and exchange rates are highly related. Reserve bank change the interest rates to
control the Inflation and exchange rates.
We can take our real time example of stock market investment to understand the above principle. As we know that, our stock market
is dominated by the overseas investors (outside India), because of the our growing economy and industrial development. When our
economy is doing well and market is performing better than other countries, overseas investors would invest heavily on our market.
How they would put it in our market?. They will sell or convert to our currency and invest in India. It is clear that when more investors
coming to India, the demand for the currency will be very high. Our rupee value will be increased against dollar. In the same way,
when they are pulling out of market, demand for the rupee will be decreased and value is depreciated.
Here I am talking only about the dollar, because it is the global currency and most of the countries trading using the dollar as trade
reserve currency. The above example is given to explain it in simple words, the demand for a currency would come in the different
way. When we are importing from other countries, we should have the currency of that country to pay for the trade. The value for the
currency is fluctuated on real time.
If a currency is free-floating, its exchange rate is allowed to vary against that of other currencies and is determined by the market
forces of supply and demand. Exchange rates for such currencies are likely to change almost constantly on financial markets, mainly
by banks, around the world. A movable or adjustable peg system is a system of fixed exchange rates, but with a provision for the
devaluation of a currency. For example, between 1994 and 2005, the Chinese yuan renminbi (CNY, ) was pegged to the United
States dollar at 8.2768 to $1.
Why RBI intervene on Currency valuation?
In the last week we have seen RBI has acted to stop the erosion of rupee value against the dollar currency. What it did was sold the
dollar currency in the market to increase the value of rupee. But, it is very difficult for the Reserve Bank of a country to adjust the
value of the currency, the long term solution would be fix the problem in economy and bring the inflation into control. You would
wonder why RBI has to intervene on currency value decrease or increase. Note that, RBI would not allow currency to be higher after
certain level because of the exports would get affected like IT companies would suffer if the rupee get appreciated against the dollar.
India is heavily depend on the import of raw materials and Oil for its industrial development. In the decreasing rupee scenario, the
outgo of money will be much higher. This would affect the expenses for the companies who imports raw materials for their
factory and all the Oil Marketing Companies (OMC) will incur heavy payment to import the Oil. Now you would have
understood why the Petrol prices have been increase in the last fortnight. If you look into the news papers, the reason said by our
finance minister was the depreciation of rupee value against dollar.
Major Factors Influencing the Currency Value
In the above section, I have explained in the simple words to make a common man understand the currency fluctuations. This sections
write down few economic conditions when the currency value will be under pressure.The following are the three major factors
influencing the changes in the currency values. There are many other factors too, but we are not talking about all the factors in this
section.
Inflation
o As a general rule, a country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising currency value, as its
purchasing power increases relative to other currencies (What is Inflation?).
Interest Rates
o A higher interest rates offer good returns compare to other countries. It will result in the foreign capital come into
the country. Lower interest rates decrease the currency value. Note that interest rates has the close relation with
interest rates. The currency value would not be affected only based on the interest, it is impacted based on the
other conditions like inflation or economic situation.
Summary
I hope this article would have given an idea about the rupee depreciation and the reason why the currency is changed. But, there are
hundreds of parameters to decide a currency value and politics also there to manipulate the own currency which China has done for a
long time. The above are the very basic idea on currency value and how it is affected. If you have any thoughts, please post ti in the
comments section.
MUMBAI: The Indian rupee reversed all intraday gains to close steady on Tuesday as traders pared some long-dollar positions after
an RBI deputy said more steps would be taken, if needed, to bring stability to the domestic forex market.
The rupee closed at 52.87/88 to the dollar, little changed from Monday's level of 52.88/90, after touching the day's low of 53.09
earlier.
"Gokarn mentioned the RBI has other weapons in its arsenal to use in the foreign exchange market, which means the central bank is
willing to take additional steps to arrest the rupee's fall," said a trader with a foreign bank, indicating a knee-jerk recovery in the rupee
was inevitable.
Last Thursday, the central bank reduced net overnight open position limit of banks to curb excessive volatility and shore up the rupee,
which had hit an all-time low of 54.30.
Following the Reserve Bank of India's curbs on trading, volumes in the dollar-rupee onshore spot market have fallen sharply from the
usual $2 billion to $3 billion, traders said.
"It has become a completely flow-driven market," said a senior foreign exchange dealer with a private-sector bank.
"Dollar demand is there as people like importers have no other option but to buy. But this buying too is on a very gingerly pace due to
worries of more sledgehammer actions from the RBI," the forex dealer said.
To offset the impact of trading curbs and attract dollar inflows, the central bank has removed interest rate ceiling on non-resident
external rupee deposits and allowed micro-finance institutions to raise up to $10 million through external commercial borrowings.
"Despite the announcement of remedial measures to curb depreciation, rupee is likely to remain under pressure in the short-to-medium
term due to cyclical, structural, and global headwinds," said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at YES Bank in a research note.
Rao expects rupee to be around 53 against the dollar at the end of the current fiscal year, but appreciate to 46 by the end of calendar
year 2012.
Earlier in the day, K.C. Chakrabarty, another deputy governor of the central bank, said there was no reason for the rupee to not
weaken, given the country's large deficit and other weak macroeconomic fundamentals.
The offshore non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) indicated further weakness, with the one-month rupee NDFs at around 53.34.
The one-month onshore forward dollar premium were at 38.25 points, up from 37.5 on Monday, while the three-month premium was
at 100.5 from 98. The one-year premium
was at 272 from 267.25. In the currency futures market, the most-traded near-month dollar-rupee contracts on the National Stock
Exchange ended at 53.0375, and at 53.0425 on both the MCX-SX and the United Stock Exchange. Total volume was at $3.73 billion.
With euro getting stronger as well it's not just US imports that are affected. V N Dalmia of Dalmia Continental, which imports olive
oil, pasta and olives, says since his consignments come mainly from the Mediterranean, the appreciation of the euro has been a huge
inflator. "We haven't increased the prices of olive oil yet, but a price rise of about 10% will affect the market when the products reach
in January," he said.
"Last month we increased the price of pasta and that has reached the consumer now. We haven't implemented a price hike for table
olives, but with the euro showing no signs of decline we won't be able to hold out much longer." Apart from retail food products,
restaurants are struggling to keep menu cards steady and complain some raw material prices have doubled. Take the sushi section, for
example. Delhi's Sushiya is coping with a hike of seaweed (nori) from Rs 550 to Rs 850 per kg, Japanese rice from Rs 120 to Rs 240,
fresh Norwegian salmon from Rs 900 to Rs 1,500, and wasabi from Rs 650 per kg to Rs 1,300. "Although our margins have reduced,
we are in a wait and watch situation because increasing prices will just mean bad business. If we do revise prices again, the hike will
be about 25%," says Mike, manager of Sushiya.
Others are coping with the rise of black cod from Rs 1,700 to Rs 2,800 per kg, scallops from Rs 1,200 to Rs 2,000, salmon from Rs
2,200 to Rs 2,800, Camembert cheese from under Rs 1,000 per kg to Rs 1,700. Parents funding their kid's overseas will have to write
bigger rupee cheques. "Due to the devaluation of the rupee in comparison to the pound, my family will end up paying a lot extra," says
Krittika Singh, an MBA student at Cardiff University. She still has two of three instalments left for tuition and rent. But despite this,
parents are left with no choice. They just hope it's all worthwhile. "The fall of the rupee has made an already expensive education even
more expensive and while it is a strain on the resources, I just hope that my daughter gets a good job by the end of this," says
Anuradha Gupta, whose daughter studies at Wharton University.
Chennai-based marketing professional T Raghavan took $50,000 as a 15-year loan for doing an MBA in the US almost a decade ago.
"Till last month, my EMI was around Rs 18,000. But this may move up to Rs 21,500 from next month and that outflow is nearly onefifth of my salary," he said.
Prices of books are also hit. Harpreet Singh, manager at a branch of Full Circle in New Delhi, says that they follow a fixed exchange
rate given to them by the National Book Trust every month. While it was Rs 50.20 against the US dollar and Rs 79.50 per British
pound in October, the rate for December is Rs 53.50 per dollar and Rs 84.80 per pound. Amit Vig, head of retail operations, Om Book
Shop, says: "Since November, the price of The Secret has gone up from Rs 690 to Rs 789, Baby and Child Care from Rs 280 to Rs
322, and Every Business is a Growth Business from Rs 467 to Rs 535."
"Risk appetite will obviously collapse and gradually the currency crisis is likely to take the shape of a balance of payments crisis,"
Nitsure said.
Worries about India have spiked in tandem with concern over Europe. UBS hosted a client conference call about India on November
29, which it announced with an email headlined "India explodes." Deutsche Bank sent out a report on November 24 entitled, "India's
time of reckoning."
"Suddenly everything seems to be coming to a head in India," UBS wrote. "Growth is disappearing, the rupee is in disarray, and
inflation is stuck at near-record levels. Investor sentiment has gone from cautious to outright scared."
India's current account deficit swelled to $14.1 billion in its fiscal first quarter, nearly triple the previous quarter's tally. The full-year
gap is expected to be around $54 billion.
Its fiscal deficit hit $58.7 billion in the April-to-October period. The government in February projected a deficit equal to 4.6 percent of
gross domestic product for the fiscal year ending in March 2012, although the finance minister said on Friday that it would be difficult
to hit that target.
India relies heavily on portfolio inflows -- foreign purchases of shares and bonds -- as a means of covering its current account gap.
Those flows are fickle.
Foreign portfolio investors have sold a net $50 million worth of equities so far in 2011 , in sharp contrast to the $29 billion they
invested in 2010, data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India's website showed. In November alone, foreign funds pulled
$661 million out of Indian stocks.
"The Indian economy is one of the most vulnerable to liquidity shocks in the region, not helped the least by deficits in its key
balances," said Radhika Rao, an economist with Forecast PTE in Singapore.
WHERE IS THE RBI?
The drop in portfolio inflows and the hefty current account and fiscal deficits have been a key factor behind the rupee's decline.
The RBI appears to have intervened in mid-November to try to slow the decline. Between October 28 and November 25, reserves
dropped by $16 billion to $304 billion, yet the currency still fell by 7 percent over that period.
Trading in rupee offshore forward contracts show traders are betting on the rupee declining a further 1.7 percent over the next three
months, and 4.5 percent in a year.
Many economists argue the RBI has been too timid, and deserves part of the blame for the rupee's weakness.
A deputy governor said on Saturday that the central bank would use "all available instruments" to stem a downward spiral.
Other officials have insisted the RBI should avoid "undue" intervention, especially when the currency depreciation is caused by
external forces, a message economist Rajeev Malik says could backfire.
"The biggest mistake RBI has made is that it has almost given an open invitation to speculators to short the rupee," said Malik, who is
with CLSA in Singapore.
"It is really bizarre for any central bank to openly keep on saying that it will not intervene when there is already pressure on the
currency to weaken and globally things are so uncertain."
Contrast that with Indonesia, which burned through 8 percent of its foreign exchange reserves in a single month in September to
defend the rupiah from a global bout of market volatility.
The rupiah has weakened in recent weeks after Bank Indonesia twice lowered interest rates. RBI, however, has been among the most
hawkish central banks in the world, raising rates 13 times since early 2010. Normally, higher interest rates boost currencies, so the
rupee's weakness is all the more significant.
KEEPING POWDER DRY
If the RBI decides to step in more aggressively, its manoeuvring room is more limited than its reserves tally would suggest.
After covering the current account deficit, short-term debt and foreign investment flows, there would be less than $20 billion left over.
J. Moses Harding, head of market and economic research at Indusind Bank in Mumbai, said the RBI's immediate concern would be
arresting the spread of currency woes into the money market.
India's banking system already borrows more than $19 billion from the central bank to meet reserve requirements, so if the RBI moved
to prop up the rupee, it would drain more liquidity out of an already tight market.
Companies make quarterly advance tax payments around mid-December, which puts an added strain on liquidity.
In addition, a glut of foreign currency convertible bonds, issued when the rupee was much higher, falls due in the first quarter. They
include a $1 billion Reliance Communications bond.
The bonds are too expensive at current levels to be converted into stock and the sharp depreciation of the rupee will leave issuers with
a heavy redemption bill.
The central bank could boost liquidity by cutting the cash reserve ratio, the proportion of deposits banks must set aside with the central
bank as cash. Talk of a cut has circulated in Indian markets in recent days, although some economists argue that such a move could
stoke already hot inflation.
"It would be extremely difficult for RBI and the government to arrest simultaneous downward pressures from equity, currency and
money markets while struggling to address low growth and high inflation issues," Harding said.
That argues in favor of RBI keeping its ammunition dry in case conditions worsen. If India is indeed heading for a 1991-style balance
of payments crisis, those reserves would be vital.
Back then, India rapidly depleted its reserves, forcing a currency devaluation.
But the risk is that RBI will wait too long to act.
"While it is important for RBI to not shed its FX reserves unnecessarily, the approach of allowing such a massive pace of slide in the
rupee could backfire," CLSA's Malik said.
Facts about RBI, govt moves to shore up rupee
REUTERS - The Reserve Bank of India and the government have taken steps to support the rupee, which has been hit by slowing
economic growth, worsening government finances and a widening trade deficit.
The rupee slumped to a record low of 54.30 to the dollar last Thursday, down about a fifth from its year-high in July. It has since
pulled back and was trading at 52.70 around midday on Wednesday.
Following is a summary of the measures initiated by the RBI and the government:
MARKET INTERVENTION
The RBI sold dollars and bought rupees in September and October, according to data from the central bank, which does not set an
official target for the rupee and only steps in to smooth volatility. Traders said the RBI has intervened multiple times in the FX market
over the past month, including on December 15.
OVERSEAS BORROWING BY MICRO LENDERS
December 19: The RBI allowed microfinance institutions to raise up to $10 million during a financial year through external
commercial borrowings for permitted end-uses.
DEREGULATION OF INTEREST RATES ON NON-RESIDENT DEPOSITS
December 16: The RBI allowed banks to set interest rates on non-resident external rupee deposits and ordinary non-resident accounts
to help attract more capital inflows.
CUTS FX TRADING LIMITS
December 15: Reduced the net overnight open position limit of authorised dealers in the foreign exchange market, lowering the
capacity of market participants to take trading positions.
OVERSEAS BORROWING RULES FOR COMPANIES EASED
November 23: Raised the ceiling on interest rates that companies can pay on foreign loans, provided the funds are brought into India
immediately.
FOREIGN INVESTMENT LIMITS IN GOVT, CORPORATE DEBT RAISED
November 17: The government increased the ceiling on foreign institutional investment in government and corporate debt by $5
billion each.
Will Indian markets bounce back?
Some time during the market crash of 1929, which led to the Great Depression, Groucho Marx said, "Some people I know lost
millions. I was luckier, I lost two hundred and forty thousand dollars. I would have lost more, but that was all the money I had."
Thousands of Indian traders trapped in this bear market will share Groucho's sentiments. Many have left the market, bruised by a
4,500-point fall in the benchmark Sensex from January to December. People, mostly day traders, who bet with money lent by their
brokers, have lost the most, struggling in many cases to pay back the loans in a falling market. And now, one of the biggest India
bulls, CLSA's Chris Wood, has turned bearish. He calls last Friday's flash crash after the RBI held rates unchanged, 'ominous'. Wood is
nervous about many things: the government's paralysis, infighting among ministers, its large social programmes, persistent inflation
and the rupee's weakness. He also frets that farmers might stop paying back loans in anticipation of a rural loan waiver of the kind
we saw in 2008.
Many of Wood's fears are rational, but on Wednesday, the markets surprised everyone, including doomsayers, by snapping back.
Both the major indices gained more than 3% and the rupee also strengthened. The Sensex rose over 500 points in a single trading
session. So, what changed? Overnight, the government hasn't become more efficient or decisive, though a lot of legislative work is
being done in the winter session of Parliament. All parties have something different to say on the Lokpal and Anna will fast, come
what may. None of this explains the market's bounce back. What could, is a renewed movement of overseas capital into markets on
the back of some cheer in the US. This year-end could actually signal a happy new year ahead.
22 Dec, 2011, 05.44AM IST, ET Bureau
The rupee, which advanced yesterday, is down today versus the US dollar.The euro has softened after the ECBs maiden three-year
lending program failed to alleviate concerns about the regions debt crisis.
The rupee fell in early trade on Thursday as doubts about solving the eurozone debt crisis heightened the prospect of foreign funds
outflows from riskier assets.
* At 9:01 a.m. (0331 GMT), the rupee was at 52.85 to the dollar from Wednesdays close of 52.49/50. It is seen moving in a 52.50 to
53.00 range, traders said.
* The euro was on the defensive against the dollar in Asia, having shed all the weeks gains as investors doubted a massive 489 billion
euro tender by the European Central Bank would solve the EU debt crisis.
* Traders said they were watching the Reserve Bank of India for measures to shore up the currency.
Indian Rupee Fell by 24 paise to a 32-month Low of Rs. 50.91 against the US Dollar
Current Affairs Week: 14 Nov 2011 To 20 Nov 2011
The Indian rupee fell by 24 paise to a fresh 32-month low of Rs. 50.91 against the US dollar on 16 November amid depreciation of the
euro due to the deepening European debt crisis. Persistent dollar demand from banks and importers and a weak opening in the equity
market put temendous pressure on the Indian rupee.
The rupee is currently the worst-performing Asian currency, weakening by more than 13% from its strongest point in late July 2011.
Trade deficit and fiscal issues are the other factors that have impacted rupee depreciation.
The Indian rupee breached the Rs 51 per US dollar-level after a 32-month gap on good dollar demand from banks and importers in
view of the strong dollar overseas.
The rupee resumed lower at Rs 50.90/91 per dollar on the Interbank Foreign Exchange, as against 15 Novembers close of Rs
50.67/68 per dollar, and dropped further to a 32-month low of 51.01 per dollar before quoting at Rs 50.88/90 per dollar.
The rupee had last touched Rs 51.20 per dollar on 31 March 2009.
rupee Hit Three Month Low
The rupee on 19 May 2010 closed 46.36/37 against the dollar which is a three month low. It also marked the biggest single-day fall in
more than 14 months. Dollar registered a huge demand at the forex market and this demand was in tune with the gains overseas amid a
sharp fall in the euro. The dollar is found gaining against euro in a situation where the Euro zone crisis spreading across the globe.
Germany banned short-selling in government bonds and ten other instruments alongside the EUs decision to rein in hedge funds and
PE funds.
Rupee Hit 15 Month Low
The Indian rupee on 1 June 2010 hit the biggest single day fall in 15 months when it crashed by 80 paise against US dollar. The rupee
closed at 47.16/17 marking a fall of 1.73 per cent. The rupee depreciated to Rs 68.69 against the British pound sterling. It also
declined against the euro to Rs. 57.39/41.
CURRENCY TRACKER
Trends in Dollar
Indian rupee depreciated by 18.5 per cent against US Dollar from the same week of the previous year and the rupee-dollar pair closed
at 53.8 on 14th December, 2011 highest in recent past. From the previous week it depreciated by 4.7 per cent.
Among the major supplier countries under the review in table below almost all currencies depreciated against dollar except for
Chinese Yuan (-4.3). Highest depreciation was registered by the Turkish Lira (23.6) followed by Indian Rupee (18.5), Bangladesh
Taka (8.9 per cent), Vietnamese dong (7.6 per cent) Pakistan rupee (3.1 per cent), Sri Lanka rupee (1.8), South Korean won (0.2)and
Hong Kong dollar (0.1 per cent) (see below table).
Trends in Euro
On 14th December, 2011 Indian rupee closed at 71.2 with depreciation of 18.4 per cent against euro on the same day of the previous
year. From the previous week Indian rupee appreciated by 3.3 per cent from Rs. 69 to Rs. 71.2.
All the countries mentioned in the table below have experienced depreciation against Euro from 30th November 2010 to 30th
November 2011 except for Chinese yuan, Hong Kong dollar, and Sri Lanka rupee which has appreciated from the previous year.
Depreciation of currencies against euro was led by Indian rupee (15.5per cent) followed by Bangladesh taka (8.8 per cent),
Vietnamese dong (7.4 per cent), Pakistan rupee (4.4 per cent), South Korean won (0.1).
Exporters
Importers
Foreign investors
Exports from India are of handicrafts, gems, jewelry, textiles, ready-made garments, industrial machinery, leather products, chemicals
and related products. Since the 1990s, India is the worlds largest processor of diamonds. The mentioned export items contribute
substantially to foreign receipts. During the periods when the dollar was moving high against the rupee, exporters stood to gain, when
$1 = Rs. 48, was getting them Rs. 4800 for every $100. Since the beginning of the year 2007, rupee appreciated by about 10%. With
its value of rupee Rs. 39.35 = $1 as on 16 Nov 2007, for every $100, exporters would get only Rs. 3935. This difference is towing
away the profit margins of exporters and BPO service providers alike.
Imports to India are of petroleum products, capital goods, chemicals, dyes, plastics, pharmaceuticals, iron and steel, uncut precious
stones, fertilizers, pulp paper etc. With the same scenario as given for export, if we analyze - an importer is paying Rs. 3935 now
instead of Rs. 4800 paid during yester years for every $100. This gain on FX is likely to create savings in cost, which could be passed
on to consumers, thereby contributing to control inflation
Foreign investment into India is also contributing well to dollar depreciation against dollar. With the recent liberalized norms on
foreign investment policy like Foreign investment of up to 51% equity limit in high priority industries; foreigners & NRIs are
allowed to repatriate their profits and capital with exception for Indian nationals who were allowed to do so only under special
circumstances; allowing free usage of export earnings to exporters, made foreign investment in India very attractive. It is this
favorable atmosphere which made FX reserve surplus in US dollar and helped rupee to appreciate
Conclusively, appreciation and depreciation of rupee cannot certainly be taken as beneficial to the Indian economy in general. On one
hand the rupee appreciation will affect exporters, BPOs, etc., on the other, rupee depreciation will affect importers. So now it depends
on what the future has to reveal for, how effectively the central bank can balance the FX rates with little impact to the relative areas of
FX usage. Can the Dollar remain king or not, is no longer a million dollar question, but a million Rupee question!
explain the impact of the rupee-dollar exchange rate on inflation, economic growth, and competitiveness of Indian industry.
Answers (1)
1.
The USA economy is slowly recovering from economic downturn and hence dollar gets weaker against all curriences. This results in
Rupee getting stronger and hence export oriented Indian companies may face a loss due to currency fluctuation. On the other hand
as dollar gets weaker OIL IMPORT Bill gets reduced as we have to pay lessor for our imports. Also many BLUE CHIP international
Indian companies borrow dollars to get Foreign exchange fluctuation benefit. The other side effect of Rupee getting stronger against
dollar is HUGE FII inflows in Indian sharemarket and bondmarket. This is also known as "dollar carry trade" i.e. buy in $ now and then
sell off after dollar gets weaker so as to receive more dollars on sale proceeds converted from Rs to $. As a result of heavy inflows
sharemarket rises sharply and other markets like Real estate and Bullion market also rises as profits booked from sharemarket is
blocked in other markets. Economy grows rapidly due to huge capital inflows and ...more
Fluctuations in Indias Rupee Rate and its Economic Impact
Posted on December 5, 2011 by India Briefing
Dec. 5 After depreciating to a record low of 52.73 against the U.S. dollar on November 22, the Indian rupee (INR) rose in value to
51.206 per dollar on Friday to complete the currencys first weekly advance since October.
The Indian rupee is under great stress as overseas investors are paring their exposure to Asias third-largest economy amid
international uncertainty and mounting worries over the domestic economy.
On November 21 alone, overseas funds sold more than US$500 million worth of Indian-listed shares over the five trading sessions,
reducing net inflows for 2011 to under US$300 million a tiny sum compared with the record investments of more than US$29
billion experienced in 2010. The rupee has lost more than 10 percent of its value this year, making it one of the worst performing
currencies in Asia.
The rupees modest 2.1 percent advance against the dollar last week occurred as six monetary authorities, led by the U.S. Federal
Reserve, agreed to lower the interest rate on dollar-liquidity swap lines.
The premium banks pay to borrow dollars overnight from central banks will fall by half a percentage point to 50 basis points, the Fed
said. It coordinated the move with the European Central Bank and monetary authorities in Canada, Switzerland, Japan and the U.K.
Sentiment has improved slightly after the central banks actions, Vikas Babu, a Mumbai-based currency trader at state-owned
Andhra Bank, told Bloomberg News. This is unlikely to last long as only the symptoms of the crisis are being tackled, and I expect
dollar-buying to resume soon.
The exchange rate of the Indian rupee is dependent upon the market conditions. Though, in order to sustain effective exchange rates,
the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively trades in the US$/INR currency market. The RBI also intervenes in the currency markets to
maintain low volatility in exchange rates and remove excess liquidity from the economy. The rupee is pegged by the Bhutanese
ngultrum at par and with the Nepali rupee at INR1 to NPR1.6.
India has a managed floating exchange rate system. This means that the Indian government intervenes only if the exchange rate gets
out of hand by increasing or reducing the money supply as the circumstances demand.
Impact on economy
Rupee appreciation makes imports cheaper and exports more expensive. According to intelligence reports by the Associated
Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India, sectors like petroleum and petroleum products, drugs and pharmaceuticals and
engineering goods which have import inputs of as much as 77 percent, 19 percent and 21 percent, respectively will gain if the
rupee appreciates. They would have to pay less for the imported raw materials which would increase their profit margins.
Likewise, a depreciating rupee makes exports cheaper and imports expensive. So, it is good news for industries such as IT, textiles,
hotels and tourism which generate income mainly from exporting their products or services. Rupee depreciation makes Indian goods
and services cheaper for overseas buyers, thus leading to increases in demand and higher revenue generation. The foreign tourists
would find it cost effective to come to India, therefore increasing the business of hotel, tours and travel companies.
Indias IT sector is dependent on foreign clients, especially the United States, for more than 70 percent of its revenue. When an IT
company gets a project from a client, it pre-decides on the length of the contract and the cost of the project. The contracts with U.S.
clients are usually quoted in U.S. dollar terms. So, the fluctuation in the exchange rate can bring about a considerable difference in the
performance of a company.
Some companies undertake a range of measures like hedging exchange risks using forwards and futures contracts. This helps in
mitigating some of the losses due to exchange rate fluctuations, but none-the-less the impact is substantial.
The exchange rate is a significant tool that can be used to examine many key industries; with fluctuations potentially having a serious
impact on the economy, industries, companies, and foreign investors. Rupee appreciation is generally helpful for industries which rely
closely on imported inputs while depreciation of the rupee is welcome news for industries which are exporting a majority of their
products.
USDINR - Indian Rupee Exchange rate
The Indian Rupee exchange rate depreciated 0.45 percent against the US Dollar during the last month. During the last 12
months, the Indian Rupee exchange rate depreciated 14.67 percent against the US Dollar. Historically, from 1973 until 2011
the USDINR exchange averaged 30.34 reaching an historical high of 53.72 in December of 2011 and a record low of 7.19 in
March of 1973. The Indian Rupee spot exchange rate specifies how much one currency, the USD, is currently worth in terms
of the other, the INR. While the Indian Rupee spot exchange rate is quoted and exchanged in the same day, the Indian Rupee
forward rate is quoted today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date. This page includes: USDINR - Indian
Rupee Exchange rate, historical data and news.
India Exports
India exports were worth 19870 Million USD in October of 2011. Exports amount to 22% of Indias GDP. Gems and jewelry
constitute the single largest export item, accounting for 16 percent of exports. India is also leading exporter of textile goods,
engineering goods, chemicals, leather manufactures and services. Indias main export partners are European Union, United
States, United Arab Emirates and China. This page includes: India Exports chart, historical data and news.
6/27/2011
Monday
44.94757
INR
USD INR rate for 6/27/2011
6/28/2011
Tuesday
44.91756
INR
6/29/2011
Wednesday
44.76439
INR
6/30/2011
Thursday
44.61000
INR
7/1/2011
Friday
44.50674
INR
7/2/2011
Saturday
44.63018
INR
7/3/2011
Sunday
44.53807
INR
7/4/2011
Monday
44.37208
INR
7/5/2011
Tuesday
44.34769
INR
7/6/2011
Wednesday
44.39508
INR
7/7/2011
Thursday
44.32728
INR
7/8/2011
Friday
44.31611
INR
7/9/2011
Saturday
44.31456
INR
7/10/2011
Sunday
44.53050
INR
7/11/2011
Monday
44.31358
INR
7/12/2011
Tuesday
44.59474
INR
7/13/2011
Wednesday
44.32354
INR
7/14/2011
Thursday
44.38907
INR
7/15/2011
Friday
44.42674
INR
7/16/2011
Saturday
44.51257
INR
7/17/2011
Sunday
44.60237
INR
7/18/2011
Monday
44.48084
INR
7/19/2011
Tuesday
44.40088
INR
7/20/2011
Wednesday
44.37034
INR
7/21/2011
Thursday
44.21299
INR
7/22/2011
Friday
44.34864
INR
7/23/2011
Saturday
44.33320
INR
7/24/2011
Sunday
44.23483
INR
7/25/2011
Monday
44.31905
INR
7/26/2011
Tuesday
44.03776
INR
7/27/2011
Wednesday
43.97961
INR
7/28/2011
Thursday
43.97648
INR
7/29/2011
Friday
44.04264
INR
7/30/2011
Saturday
44.25031
INR
7/31/2011
Sunday
44.30088
INR
8/1/2011
Monday
43.90557
INR
8/2/2011
Tuesday
44.39731
INR
8/3/2011
Wednesday
44.19077
INR
8/4/2011
Thursday
44.77243
INR
8/5/2011
Friday
44.34883
INR
8/6/2011
Saturday
44.74041
INR
8/7/2011
Sunday
44.07080
INR
8/8/2011
Monday
45.23742
INR
8/9/2011
Tuesday
44.74193
INR
8/10/2011
Wednesday
45.40172
INR
8/11/2011
Thursday
45.19490
INR
8/12/2011
Friday
45.36936
INR
8/13/2011
Saturday
45.40050
INR
8/14/2011
Sunday
45.31100
INR
8/15/2011
Monday
45.24012
INR
8/16/2011
Tuesday
45.29689
INR
8/17/2011
Wednesday
45.32495
INR
8/18/2011
Thursday
45.65572
INR
8/19/2011
Friday
45.65971
INR
8/20/2011
Saturday
45.67046
INR
8/21/2011
Sunday
45.76846
INR
8/22/2011
Monday
45.65931
INR
8/23/2011
Tuesday
45.50757
INR
8/24/2011
Wednesday
45.96703
INR
8/25/2011
Thursday
46.05559
INR
8/26/2011
Friday
46.08732
INR
8/27/2011
Saturday
46.27533
INR
8/28/2011
Sunday
46.18033
INR
8/29/2011
Monday
45.84987
INR
8/30/2011
Tuesday
45.90782
INR
8/31/2011
Wednesday
45.73942
INR
9/1/2011
Thursday
45.73780
INR
9/2/2011
Friday
45.68990
INR
9/3/2011
Saturday
45.76001
INR
9/4/2011
Sunday
45.88473
INR
9/5/2011
Monday
46.02647
INR
9/6/2011
Tuesday
46.03035
INR
9/7/2011
Wednesday
46.07942
INR
9/8/2011
Thursday
46.32952
INR
9/9/2011
Friday
46.52999
INR
9/10/2011
Saturday
46.52999
INR
9/11/2011
Sunday
46.88550
INR
9/12/2011
Monday
47.02243
INR
9/13/2011
Tuesday
47.58922
INR
9/14/2011
Wednesday
47.63587
INR
9/15/2011
Thursday
47.57075
INR
9/16/2011
Friday
47.16004
INR
9/17/2011
Saturday
47.19766
INR
9/18/2011
Sunday
47.59932
INR
9/19/2011
Monday
47.57442
INR
9/20/2011
Tuesday
47.94810
INR
9/21/2011
Wednesday
48.55760
INR
9/22/2011
Thursday
49.43860
INR
9/23/2011
Friday
49.40745
INR
9/24/2011
Saturday
49.29930
INR
9/25/2011
Sunday
49.30294
INR
9/26/2011
Monday
49.17649
INR
9/27/2011
Tuesday
48.86321
INR
9/28/2011
Wednesday
48.85427
INR
9/29/2011
Thursday
48.91409
INR
9/30/2011
Friday
49.08606
INR
10/1/2011
Saturday
49.06773
INR
10/2/2011
Sunday
49.25088
INR
10/3/2011
Monday
49.13010
INR
10/4/2011
Tuesday
49.14355
INR
10/5/2011
Wednesday
49.14988
INR
10/6/2011
Thursday
49.07957
INR
10/7/2011
Friday
49.03308
INR
10/8/2011
Saturday
48.99645
INR
10/9/2011
Sunday
49.32645
INR
10/10/2011
Monday
48.98790
INR
10/11/2011
Tuesday
49.26672
INR
10/12/2011
Wednesday
49.02224
INR
10/13/2011
Thursday
49.07663
INR
10/14/2011
Friday
48.81610
INR
10/15/2011
Saturday
48.89899
INR
10/16/2011
Sunday
48.82941
INR
10/17/2011
Monday
49.00157
INR
10/18/2011
Tuesday
49.41463
INR
10/19/2011
Wednesday
48.99201
INR
10/20/2011
Thursday
49.86644
INR
10/21/2011
Friday
49.73409
INR
10/22/2011
Saturday
49.82413
INR
10/23/2011
Sunday
49.83527
INR
10/24/2011
Monday
49.57149
INR
10/25/2011
Tuesday
49.41525
INR
10/26/2011
Wednesday
49.42014
INR
10/27/2011
Thursday
49.90059
INR
10/28/2011
Friday
48.64256
INR
10/29/2011
Saturday
48.64428
INR
10/30/2011
Sunday
48.62559
INR
10/31/2011
Monday
48.92986
INR
11/1/2011
Tuesday
49.20694
INR
11/2/2011
Wednesday
49.05455
INR
11/3/2011
Thursday
48.96949
INR
11/4/2011
Friday
48.98206
INR
11/5/2011
Saturday
49.15369
INR
11/6/2011
Sunday
48.90168
INR
11/7/2011
Monday
48.97139
INR
11/8/2011
Tuesday
49.36145
INR
11/9/2011
Wednesday
50.33608
INR
11/10/2011
Thursday
50.01561
INR
11/11/2011
Friday
49.79382
INR
11/12/2011
Saturday
49.68902
INR
11/13/2011
Sunday
49.92906
INR
11/14/2011
Monday
50.37549
INR
11/15/2011
Tuesday
50.62995
INR
11/16/2011
Wednesday
50.85562
INR
11/17/2011
Thursday
51.15367
INR
11/18/2011
Friday
51.21479
INR
11/19/2011
Saturday
51.23373
INR
11/20/2011
Sunday
51.21062
INR
11/21/2011
Monday
52.23203
INR
11/22/2011
Tuesday
52.42020
INR
11/23/2011
Wednesday
52.26147
INR
11/24/2011
Thursday
52.04751
INR
11/25/2011
Friday
52.25168
INR
11/26/2011
Saturday
52.23590
INR
11/27/2011
Sunday
51.93921
INR
11/28/2011
Monday
52.17676
INR
11/29/2011
Tuesday
51.94733
INR
11/30/2011
Wednesday
51.79985
INR
12/1/2011
Thursday
51.44980
INR
12/2/2011
Friday
51.08083
INR
12/3/2011
Saturday
51.47143
INR
12/4/2011
Sunday
51.02178
INR
12/5/2011
Monday
51.22051
INR
12/6/2011
Tuesday
51.23186
INR
12/7/2011
Wednesday
51.59139
INR
12/8/2011
Thursday
51.63588
INR
12/9/2011
Friday
51.88413
INR
12/10/2011
Saturday
51.87551
INR
12/11/2011
Sunday
51.89298
INR
12/12/2011
Monday
52.76280
INR
12/13/2011
Tuesday
53.12095
INR
12/14/2011
Wednesday
53.71472
INR
12/15/2011
Thursday
53.21575
INR
12/16/2011
Friday
52.35790
INR
12/17/2011
Saturday
52.35590
INR
12/18/2011
Sunday
52.55796
INR
12/19/2011
Monday
52.77564
INR
12/20/2011
Tuesday
52.73639
INR
12/21/2011
Wednesday
52.37480
INR
12/22/2011
Thursday
52.51255
INR
52.71288
INR
12/23/2011
Friday
min = 43.9056 (August 1)
avg = 47.9410
max = 53.7147 (December 14)
It is not the first time for Indian Rupee. In 2008, Indian Rupee faced the devaluation because of oil prices.
Anna Hajare, Mamata Banaerjee and other unknow factors not allowing two Economist brains Pranab
Mukherjee and Manmohan Singh to concentrate on Market values.
Not only the current political situation is responsible for depreciation in 2011 but also there are some external
factors.
This is the combine effect.
Withdrawal of FIIs
Foreign institutional investors withdrawal from domestic economy is the one big reason for this depreciation.
The Greece Crisis and its rescue package made investor to think about their investments. Changes in the finance
minister and political leaders (in EURO-ZONE) is also a factor.
Strengthening of Dollars
The Euro-Zone crisis has weakened the Euro significantly against the US Dollar. In other words dollar is getting
stronger in the world markets. Obviously the investors are considering US as safe place to invest in. The major
areas are Gold, greeback and treasury.
Indian Politics
Number of Indian scams distracted governments concentration away from Economy. All these scams make the
bad image of India in the global market.
Mr Manmohan Singh may be willing to implement good things for economical reform. But the real power
woman Sonia Gandhi do not wish for open economy system.
That is what the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor D Subbarao would like everyone to be on while
discussing the sharp rupee depreciation against the US greenback. The Indian rupee has been mauled nearly 20
per cent in the last one year. And the downslide is unstoppable. The rupee closed at 52.22 against the dollar on
Tuesday, the second week of December 2011. Why the dramatic slide? Subbarao isn't the only one in the hot
seat.
Some trigger happy commentators are quick to fire the central bank for not selling dollars from its foreign
exchange reserves kitty of $300 billion, an action that could have cushioned the rupee's plunge. But that's easier
said than done. There are far reaching implications of a forex sale that can outweigh the expected gains (Read:
Why is the rupee falling?). Remember, India had foreign exchange reserves of just $10 billion exactly two
decades ago when Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar's coalition government was at the centre and Yashwant
Sinha was the finance minister. Thanks to FII inflows into Indian equity markets, the foreign exchange reserves
have grown big time since the early 90s. But a big chunk of the reserves actually started flowing from the early
2000 period when foreign institutional investor (FIIs) started investing dollars in the Indian market. The rupee,
too, appreciated big time to 38-39 levels in early 2008.
So what's pulling the rupee down now? Clearly, dollar inflows - especially short-term hot inflows into the
Indian equity market - are vanishing fast because of global troubles and high valuations of Indian companies.
The RBI Governor will surely rest his case on the lack of focus in terms of attracting longer term foreign direct
investments into India. Past governments were never able to pull their act together enough to attract more stable
dollar inflows through the FDI route. Whatever little FDI that comes into India is also on the decline from $40
billion in 2008 to $25 billion in 2010. That amount is peanuts compared with neighbouring China. China, which
unlike India has no sectoral limits for FDI, pocketed $185 billion in 2010. The Chinese FDI inflows were
always well over $100 billion annually in the past. China runs a trade surplus and the currency is also inherently
quite strong, though they peg it at a fixed rate to the dollar. India could have attracted FDI inflows had it relaxed
foreign investments in retail, insurance, pension, defence, aviation and a host of other sectors. Some of these
reforms have been pending for nearly a decade. Call it a last minute desperate measure or a larger reform
exercise, the move to allow FDI in multi-brand retail brands last fortnight also fell flat because of stiff
opposition from UPA allies and opposition parties.
There are also softer measures - besides the FDI cap - that need attention from the government, say some
experts.
"There is also a perception issue," says Frank Richter, chairman of Horasis, a Zurich-based global business
community forum. Frank, who met BT in a one-to-one meeting recently, highlighted issues like corruption,
bureaucracy, regulations, delays in land acquisition and environmental issues as obstacles to global
investors.
"India needs a stronger export focus," advises Richter, who worked in China and Japan for well over a decade.
"FDI will only make Indian companies more competitive in the global marketplace," he adds. If Indian
companies have to adapt to more competition at home, they'll be better placed in the global market. China is a
great example of allowing foreigners in all sectors and then competing with them head on.
The strength of a currency always reflects the demand and supply of dollars in the market. India historically
runs a huge current account deficit (more imports than exports, meaning more dollars are going out of the
country than are coming in). So be it a trade window or an investment window, dollars are in short supply. The
FIIs are also pulling out dollars from the Indian stock market to shift to other attractive destinations.
Today, the way the rupee is slipping, the central bank is as helpless as the corporate sector (with exposure in
forex debt, imported raw materials etc). So if the rupee breaches the $55 mark against the US dollar, don't
blame the RBI Governor alone. There are other bigger culprits roaming scot free!
Rupee Woes
Rupee falls 13 per cent in three months on domestic, global cues
After staying in a band of Rs 44 to Rs 46 for most part of 2010 and 2011, the rupee has
been on a relentless slide vis-a-vis the dollar since the last couple of months. In the last
3 months alone, the rupee has depreciated by 13 per cent, falling from the level of Rs
45 in August 2011 to Rs 51 as of 16 November 2011.
According to Alex Mathews, head of research, Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services,
the sell-off in equities, dollar purchases by oil marketing companies and fears over the
deepening European crisis is boosting demand for the safe haven US dollar from
investors globally, which has added to the rupee's woes.
The fall has not been unique to the rupee alone; it was seen in other emerging markets (EMs) as well, possibly reflecting
global risk aversion. "However, of late, while many EM currencies recovered from their recent lows, the rupee continued
to exhibit weakness, possibly reflecting the deterioration in India's macroeconomic indicators," says Vikas Khemani,
president and head (wholesale capital markets), Edelweiss Financial Services.
The rupee is facing headwinds arising from both domestic and global factors. The
widening current account deficit (CAD) and the deteriorating portfolio inflows
seem to be adding to the rupee's woes. Compared with an inflow of $30 billion in
the year 2010, foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows have been more or less
flat to negative this year.
The Reserve Bank of India can take measures such as selling the dollar in the
market or increasing interest rates, which could make the rupee appreciate.
However, analysts do not expect the RBI is to intervene.
Currently, the rupee is pretty close to its 32-month low against the dollar,
witnessed in March 2009, which was about Rs 52.1. Once the rupee crosses this
zone, it could be in an uncharted territory. "If this level is breached, the rupee could slide to Rs 52.41; else, it could
remain in the region of Rs 51.93 in the short term," says Mathews.
"Over the medium term, if the event risk recedes on account of some solution emerging from Europe or the domestic
macroeconomic situation improves, the rupee may appreciate. However, we don't see it regaining the Rs 44-45 levels in
a hurry," says Khemani.