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UnderstandingPakistanssubmarineplans

TheType032Qingclasssubmarine,atechnologydemonstratorandevaluationplatforminusebythe
People'sLiberationArmyNavy(PLAN).

DailyViews

BilalKhanOct31,2016

UNDERSTANDINGPAKISTANS
SUBMARINEPLANS
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SHARES

ThePakistanNavyhasnotbeenparticularlyvocalaboutitsrecentlyinkedsubmarinepurchase
fromChina.Infact,eventhoughitiswidelyspeculatedthatPakistanssubmarineswillbe
derivedfromtheS20,whichisChinaShipbuilding&OffshoreInternationalCo.Ltd(CSOC)
ssoleexportdesign,noofficialdetailshavebeenprovidedaboutthemodeland
configurationofPakistansforthcomingsubmarines.
Ingeneral,itisapparentthatthePakistanNavysprimarymission,especiallyconsidering
Pakistanslimitedfinancialresources,istodefendthecountryscoastlineandshore
basedeconomicanddefenceassets.Inotherwords,thePakistanNavysprimarymissionis
antiaccessandareadenial(A2/AD).Forsubmarines,A2/ADmissionswouldinvolveloitering
inlittoralwatersinanticipationofincomingenemywarships.
Stealthi.e.lowacoustic(sound)andinfrared(heat)detectabilityandendurance
arecriticalattributesforbuildingasuccessfulsubsurfaceA2/ADforce.Theprospectofwell
embeddedsubsurfacethreatscapableoffracturingthehullofahighvaluewarshipwould
deteranenemynavalforcefromattemptinganentryontoPakistanscoastline.Granted,
Indiasfocusneednotgothatfar,interdictingPakistanssealinesofcommunication
(SLOC)anddenyingitaccesstotradewouldbesufficienttoinducepressure,butthatdoesnot
meanPakistanshouldletupfromdefendingitsportcitiesandshipyard(s).
InPakistanscontext,theaddedrealityofcostandavailabilitymustbeconsideredaswell.
Therearetwoaspectstothisissue:First,thelowercostofChinesesubmarineshasenabledthe
PakistanNavytooptforalargernumberofshipsincomparisontowhatitcould(andwasinthe
processto)procurefromtheWest(e.g.ThyssenKruppMarineSystemsType214).The
pushforquantityoverpedigreeindicatesthePakistanNavysdesiretoorientitsnaval
staturetounderwaterwarfare.Second,alargerfleetenablesPakistantomaintainahigh
availabilityrateofusablesubmarines.Thestationingofone,twooreventhreesubmarinesfor
resupplies,repairs,oracrewswitchwouldnotimpairtheNavyfrommaintainingasizablesub
surfaceforcetoprotectPakistanslittoralwaters.
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UnderstandingPakistanssubmarineplans

Basedontheabove,onecanconcludethattheenablersofasoundA2/ADstrategyreston
affordabilityandavailability.Thesearecrucialpillars,especiallyifoneistothinkabout
Pakistanssubmarinestrategyinthecontextofthecountrysdeterrencegoals.Yes,
Pakistanhasbeenintendingtobuildasecondstriketriad,soaseabaseddeterrencelegistobe
expected.However,itwoulddisingenuoustoautomaticallyassumethatthisdeterrenceleg
wouldbebuiltusinganuclearpoweredsubmarine.
EvenifoneweretobegenerousintheirassumptionsaboutPakistansabilitytosecurea
serviceableminiaturizedreactor,therearerealtechnologydrawbacksthatneedtobeaddressed.
First,thenuclearpropulsioncompetencyavailableoutsideoftraditionalnuclearpowered
submarine(SSN)usersisnotatalevelwheretheseshipsarequietenoughforsupporting
A2/ADoperations.Second,ifPakistanweretodeployanuclearreactoratsea,itwouldbe
naturaltoassumethatitsfirstseveraliterationswouldhavetoundergogradualsafetyand
qualityimprovement.Inotherwords,issuchamachineevenserviceableforwar?Itisimportant
tounderstandthatevenwiththebasetechnologicalcapabilitiesandtalent,developmenttakes
time,especiallywhenundertakenaloneorwithatbestonepartner.Thiswouldbea
generallyunreadyandvulnerablehighvalueasset,somethingPakistancannotafford.
Intandemwithserviceabilityandvulnerability,thequestionofcostisalsoafactor.Withlimited
financialresources,thearmedforcesarelefttoprioritizebetweenmultiplepivotalprograms.
ThisissueisstarkerfortheNavy,whichmakesduewithanevensmallerpoolofresourcesin
comparisontotheArmyandAirForce.ResourcesgoingintoanSSNareresourcesnotgoing
intotheconventionalA2/ADsubmarinefleet,andwiththelatterdirectlypivotalto
safeguardingtwoportcitiesandnavalindustryinfrastructure,itisdifficulttoseehowan
infantileSSNprogramwoulddistracttheNavy.Infact,theNavyitselfhasotherkeyprioritiesas
well(afterbuildingastrongconventionalsubmarineforce),suchasasurfacefleettomanage
theSLOCsandguardPakistansexclusiveeconomiczone.Thepragmaticcourseistoput
SSNaspirationstothebackburner.
Whileoneshouldexpectpragmatisminthesubmarineprogram,oneshouldalsoexpectthe
PakistanNavytomaintainaforwardlookingdisposition.Forexample,acommonconclusion
withtherecentpurchasefromChinaisthatPakistansnewsubmarineswoulduseStirling
airindependentpropulsion(AIP)technology.However,theadoptionofStirlingAIPwouldnot
alignwithPakistansreality,whichisthatitsmaritimeassetsoperateinwarmwater
environments.AIPsystemsdependentonmovingcomponents,suchasStirling,create
vibration,andvibrationsi.e.noise(i.e.acoustics)travelfasterinwarmwaterthanthey
doincoldwater.ItisdifficulttofathomthatPakistanwouldheavilyinvestinanAIPsubmarine,
onlytoendupwithasolutionthatdoesnotsupportitsA2/ADneedsintermsofstealth.
Inthisrespect,itwouldbenaturaltoseePakistanpursueafuelcellbasedAIPsolution.Infact,
itwouldbewisetoinvestinadesignthatdoeswelltocategoricallyreducedependenceon
movingparts(tohelpwithlowacousticdetectability).Yes,thenavalindustryismoving
towardsfuelcellAIP,butapushtoadvanceinthisrespectisnotanadvancementfor
advancementssake.Therearegenuinelycriticalfunctionalneedsatstakeinthisrespect,
especiallyintermsofenablingtheNavytopossessanoptimalA2/ADforce.
Ontheotherhand,thecallforaverticallaunchsystem(VLS)oughttobetakenwithmore
nuance.Yes,VLSisbeneficialinthatthesecanisterscanbededicatedtoantishipandland
attackcruisemissiles,whichinturnwouldfreetorpedotubes.Itwouldalsohelpreducethe
presenceofmovingparts,especiallyincriticalmomentswhereamunitionisbeingreadiedfor
use.Tobefair,ChinahasbeendevelopinguponsubsurfaceVLSapplicationsoverthepast
decade(atleast),hence,thenotionofitmakingittoPakistansfuturesubmarinesis
plausible,thoughitisalsounlikely.
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UnderstandingPakistanssubmarineplans

TheadoptionofVLSonPakistansfuturesubmarineswoulddependonwhethertheadded
costofhavingitissufficientlyoffsetbythebenefit.Ultimately,thePakistanNavyneedsquiet
conventionalsubmarinestofractureintrudingenemyhulls.Granted,onecouldarguethatthe
strategicelementcouldfactorinfavourofVLS,butthiscanbeachievedbysporting
sufficientlylargetorpedotubes(tohouselandattackcruisemissiles).Thisisnotanelegant
solution,butcarryingthecountrysstrategicumbrellaisnottheprimaryobjectiveofthese
submarines,rather,theprimarygoalistoprotectPakistanscoastlines.Itwouldbea
welcomesighttoseeVLSincorporatedintothedesign,butitisnotsomethingthatshouldbe
takenforgranted,especiallyasthedefactoconfiguration.

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