AmBank FXDaily

24 January 2017

AmBank Research

Investors pile into safe-haven assets as dollar weakens

MYR to fluctuate in the range of 4.4400-4.4650 against US dollar
Key watch: (i) ECB Praet speech (ii) Japan Mfg PMI Preliminary, and (iii) US Mfg PMI
Preliminary

INDICATIVE MAJOR CURRENCIES

USD/JPY
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
USD/CNY
USD/MYR
JPY/MYR
EUR/MYR
AUD/MYR
GBP/MYR
SGD/MYR

As at

Mid-price

24 Jan 2017

as at 8.02am

112.71
1.0765
0.7584
6.8537
4.4400
3.9393
4.7616
3.3520
5.5163
3.1260

112.93
1.0756
0.7579
6.8537
4.4338
3.9265
4.7687
3.3606
5.5475
3.1265

Expected Range for Today

One-year

Low

High

Low

High

112.52
1.0575
0.7398
6.8334
4.4140
3.9068
4.7487
3.3410
5.5267
3.1069

113.93
1.0936
0.7760
6.8740
4.4535
3.9462
4.7887
3.3802
5.5682
3.1460

99.02
1.0341
0.6919
6.4528
3.8442
3.4064
4.3625
2.8912
5.0400
2.8497

121.69
1.1616
0.7835
6.9649
4.5002
4.1877
4.7915
3.3771
6.1574
3.1474

Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

Key Highlights:-

TODAYS EVENTS
C

Events

Prd

Surv

EU

ECB Praet speech

JP

Mfg PMI

Jan P

US

Mfg PMI

Jan P

54.5

Global DXY Index extended drop to 100.16 on Monday from the previous
100.74 as US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said an excessively strong dollar
could have a negative short-term effect on the economy. The dollar touched a
new low of 99.991 after his remarks. USDJPYR settled at 112.71 from the
previous 114.62 as US Treasury yields extend drop. UST 10-year dropped -2.8%
to 2.3971 while UST 5-year dropped -3.8% to 1.8634. GBPUSD climbed to 5week high to 1.2535 on Monday as investors pile into safe-haven assets as
unease over Trump weakens dollar. Gold rallied to a 2-month high, up by
approximately +1.2% to $1,219.81 as traders attempted to digest Trumps
protectionist tone struck during his inauguration speech. Crude oil traded at
$52.96 whereas Brent oil dipped -0.3% to $55.32 per barrel.

Malaysia USDMYR ended higher in tandem with Asian currencies as investors

look for concrete details of the US Presidents fiscal policies. The ringgit was up
0.16% to the US dollar at 4.4400 from the previous close of 4.4470. The 5-year
MGS yield dropped by -1.84% to 3.62 while the 10-year MGS yield dropped by 1.68% to 4.14. Besides that, the 5-year CDS declined marginally by -0.12% to
130.51. Crude palm oil for third-month delivery fell RM5 to RM3,096 per
tonne.

Key Watch (i) ECB Chief Economist, Peter Praet speech (ii) Japan
Manufacturing PMI for January preliminary (prior: 52.4) and, (iii) US
Manufacturing PMI for January preliminary is projected at 54.5 (prior: 54.3).

Technical Outlook RSI reading which continued to stay high within the
overbought zone suggests the support level will be at 4.4400 while the
narrowing positive gap in MACD sets the resistance level at 4.4650.

Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

Major currencies against MYR

Focus of the day :

Note: (-) denotes stronger RM
respective currencies.
Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

against

Singapore Inflation on an upward trend

For further details, please read our Economic report issued 24 January 2017.

1
Kindly refer to the last page of this publication for important disclosures

24 January 2017

AmBank Research

AmBank Group, Global Markets

Corporate Client Group (CCG)

Institutional Client Group (ICG)

+603-2059 8700/8600
hor-li-ching@ambankgroup.com

+603-2059 8690

Azli Bin Abdul Jamil

azli-abd-jamil@ambankgroup.com

Jacqueline E. Rodrigues

jacqueline-r@ambankgroup.com

Ho Su Farn

ho-su-farn@ambankgroup.com

Lewis Albert Singh Hans

lewis-albert@ambankgroup.com

Melisa Lim Giok Ling

melisa-lim@ambankgroup.com

AmBank Research
Anthony Dass
Chief Economist/Head

anthony-dass@ambankgroup.com

Nur Saffiah Abdul Rahman

FX Analyst

saffiah-rahman@ambankgroup.com

Ummi Kalsom Yaacub

Research Assistant

ummi-kalsom-yaacub@ambankgroup.com

2
Kindly refer to the last page of this publication for important disclosures

77

24 January 2017

AmBank Research
DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER
This document is strictly confidential and is issued by AmBank (M) Berhad (AmBank) on the basis that it is only for the
information of the particular person to whom it was provided. This document may not be copied, reproduced, distributed
or published by any recipient for any purpose unless AmBanks prior written consent is obtained.
This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy
any securities, foreign exchange or other product. In providing this report AmBank is not making any recommendation to
buy any securities or other product and the information provided should not be taken as investment advice. It has been
prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. AmBank has no
obligation to update its opinion or the information in this report and AmBank recommends that you independently
evaluate particular investments and strategies and seek the advice of a financial adviser prior to entering into any
transaction. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on your individual circumstances and
objectives.
The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that AmBank believes are reliable, but while all reasonable
care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it
is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates included in this report
constitute our views as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Members of the AmBank Group, AmBank Group affiliates and each of their directors, officers employees and agents
(Relevant Persons) may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities or other
products are mentioned herein, may from time to time have a position in or related to the securities or products
mentioned herein and may trade or otherwise effect transactions for their own account or the accounts of customers. You
should assume that the Relevant Persons may provide or may seek investment banking or other services to or from the
companies in which have an interest in the securities or products discussed / covered in this report or previous reports by
AmBank. You should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential
conflicts of interest.
AmBank is not acting as your advisor and does not owe any fiduciary duties to you in connection with this report and no
reliance may be placed on AmBank and the Relevant Persons may from time to time have a material interest in any such
securities or products. You should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among the things, may give rise to real or
potential conflicts of interest.
AmBank is not acting as your advisor and does not owe any fiduciary duties to you in connection with this report and no
reliance may be placed on AmBank for advice or recommendations of any sort. Nothing in this report shall constitute legal,
accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any transaction or investment is appropriate for you taking into account
your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs, or otherwise constitutes any such advice to you.
AmBank makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the accuracy of the information or
fitness for any particular purpose and does not accept any liability (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or
consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) for any use you or your advisors make of the contents of this report or
for any loss that may arise from the use of this report or reliance by any person upon such information or opinions
provided in the report.
This report has been prepared by the analysts of AmBank Markets. Facts and views presented in this report may not reflect
the views of or information known to other business units within AmBank Group.
This information herein is not intended to constitute research as it is defined by applicable laws. This report is not
directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any
locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to
law or regulation.
The information provided in this document has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable. AmBank (M)
Bhd does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, and does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from
the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinion. Such information or opinions are subject to change
without notice, are for general information only and is not intended as an offer to sell or a recommendation/ solicitation to
buy any securities, foreign exchange or other product.

3
Kindly refer to the last page of this publication for important disclosures

77