AmBank FXDaily

25 January 2017

AmBank Research

Dollar firmed as investors assess economic policy outlook under new US administration
MYR to fluctuate in the range of 4.4400-4.4650 against US dollar
Key watch: (i) Japan trade balance

INDICATIVE MAJOR CURRENCIES

As at

Mid-price

25 Jan 2017

as at 8.02am

USD/JPY
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
USD/CNY
USD/MYR
JPY/MYR
EUR/MYR
AUD/MYR
GBP/MYR
SGD/MYR

113.79
1.0731
0.7582
6.8590
4.4360
3.8987
4.7677
3.3576
5.5423
3.1261

113.93
1.0729
0.7594
6.8590
4.4353
3.8932
4.7579
3.3678
5.5575
3.1216

Expected Range for Today

One-year

Low

High

Low

High

113.52
1.0548
0.7413
6.8375
4.4150
3.8731
4.7373
3.3478
5.5363
3.1017

114.93
1.0909
0.7774
6.8805
4.4555
3.9133
4.7785
3.3878
5.5787
3.1415

99.02
1.0341
0.6974
6.4528
3.8442
3.4064
4.3625
2.8912
5.0400
2.8497

121.69
1.1616
0.7835
6.9649
4.5002
4.1877
4.7915
3.3771
6.1574
3.1474

Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

Key Highlights:-

TODAYS EVENTS
C
JP

Events
Trade balance

Prd
Dec

Surv

Global DXY Index rose +0.12% to 100.28 on Tuesday as the dollar gained some
lift from rising US Treasury (UST) yields while US stocks rose to their highs for
the day. 10-year UST increased +2.84% to 2.4652 while the S&P Index registered
a high of 2,280.07 on Tuesday. JPY weakened to 113.79 from the previous
112.71 against USD as the greenback extends recovery from overnight, aided by
rise in UST yields. Meanwhile, EURUSD fell -0.32% to close at 1.0731. GBPUSD
plunged from 1.2533 to 1.2438 after UK Brexit Secretary said there will be no
second referendum after the nations Supreme Court decided that the Brexit
process requires a Parliament vote. However, the currency rebounded to close
at 1.2520. Gold retreats from 2-month high and fell -0.77% to $1,208.94 as the
rise in UST yields curbed demand for the alternative asset. Oil price was slightly
lower at $55.44 from its previous $55.23. Oil price direction remains uncertain
as the recovery in drilling and well completions may accelerate stockpile glut
without a corresponding adjustment in demand or exports.

Malaysia USDMYR ended higher at RM4.4360 from its previous RM4.4400, in

line with the performance of Asian currencies. The demand for the greenback
was dampened by worries over US Presidents protectionist trade stance as it
withdraws from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. . The 5-year
MGS yield dropped by -0.39% to 3.61 while the 10-year MGS yield dropped by 0.34% to 4.13. Besides that, the 5-year CDS increased marginally by +0.10% to
130.63.

Key Watch (i) Japans December trade balance is projected to be at 270B

(prior: 153B)

Technical Outlook RSI reading which continued to stay high within the
overbought zone suggests the support level will be at 4.4400 while the
narrowing positive gap in MACD sets the resistance level at 4.4650.

270B

Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

Major currencies against MYR

Note: (-) denotes stronger RM against respective

currencies.
Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

1
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25 January 2017

AmBank Research

AmBank Group, Global Markets

Corporate Client Group (CCG)

Institutional Client Group (ICG)

+603-2059 8700/8600
hor-li-ching@ambankgroup.com

+603-2059 8690

Azli Bin Abdul Jamil

azli-abd-jamil@ambankgroup.com

Jacqueline E. Rodrigues

jacqueline-r@ambankgroup.com

Ho Su Farn

ho-su-farn@ambankgroup.com

Lewis Albert Singh Hans

lewis-albert@ambankgroup.com

Melisa Lim Giok Ling

melisa-lim@ambankgroup.com

AmBank Research
Anthony Dass
Chief Economist/Head

anthony-dass@ambankgroup.com

Nur Saffiah Abdul Rahman

FX Analyst

saffiah-rahman@ambankgroup.com

Ummi Kalsom Yaacub

Research Assistant

ummi-kalsom-yaacub@ambankgroup.com

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77

25 January 2017

AmBank Research
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