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Singapore Petroleum Co
Bloomberg: SPC SP | Reuters: SPCS.SI
9 . 50 214
8 . 50 194 cheap valuation, (ii) strong 2Q08 results should be near
7 . 50 174 term share price catalyst, (iii) attractive dividend yield of
6 . 50 154
5 . 50 134
10%, and (iv) 30% upside to our revised target price.
4 . 50 114
3 . 50 94
2 . 50 74
Relevance: The counter is trading at only 6.0x 2008 PE and
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
4.2x EV/EBITDA vs regional peers’ (ex-Japan) 8.7x 2008 PE
Singapore Petroleum Co ( LHS ) Relative FSSTI INDEX ( RHS )
and 5.7x EV/EBITDA. We upgrade SPC to BUY from Hold.
Apr
Oct
Jan
Feb
Jun
Aug
Sep
Dec
Jul
May
Nov
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Company Focus
Singapore Petroleum Co
Page 2
Company Focus
Singapore Petroleum Co
Sales 1,925 1,975 2,239 2,629 2,714 3,249 8,767 14,125 12,935
E&P 10 13 18 105 94 153 145 455 501
Refining 1,915 1,962 2,221 2,524 2,620 3,096 8,261.6 13,670 12,434
Operating profit 117 194 106 158 120 225 575 723 732
E&P 5 8 7 32 38 66 52 244 295
Refining 112 186 99 126 82 159 523 479 437
Net profit 112 179 100 117 98 177 508 546 562
Note: *DBS Vickers estimate
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
Peers comparison
Market PE P/BV EV/EBITDA Div Yield ROA ROE
Cap (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%)
BB Ticker Name US$m 08F 09F 08F 09F 08F 09F 08F 08F 08F
SPC SP Equity SINGAPORE PETROLEUM CO LTD** 2,385 6.0 5.8 1.6 1.4 4.2 3.8 10.0 12.1 28.6
TOP TB Equity THAI OIL PCL** 3,583 6.5 7.8 1.5 1.4 4.5 4.5 7.8 12.7 25.3
PTTAR TB Equity PTT AROMATICS & REFINING ** 2,266 9.0 6.8 1.2 1.1 6.2 4.7 7.3 6.6 13.0
IRPC TB Equity IRPC PCL 2,776 7.9 8.0 0.9 0.9 6.8 6.9 5.0 9.3 12.5
BCP TB Equity BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PCL 413 14.0 5.4 0.6 0.6 8.5 3.7 2.8 2.8 5.0
SHELL MK Equity SHELL REFINING CO (F.O.M.) 991 10.6 11.3 1.5 1.5 6.8 7.0 5.2 11.6 26.3
CTX AU Equity CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED 3,743 11.1 10.7 1.3 1.2 5.9 5.7 4.6 7.4 13.8
BPCL IN Equity BHARAT PETROLEUM* 2,390 5.8 5.3 0.7 0.7 3.9 35.0 4.7 4.6 12.6
HPCL IN Equity HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM* 1,548 5.4 4.9 0.6 0.6 4.6 4.0 6.2 3.7 12.4
IOCL IN Equity INDIAN OIL CORP* 10,160 6.5 6.5 1.0 1.0 4.7 4.4 4.3 5.7 14.2
010950 KS Equity S-OIL CORPORATION 7,874 10.2 10.3 2.1 1.9 4.9 5.2 7.4 8.6 20.3
096770 KS Equity SK ENERGY CO LTD 10,208 11.1 9.4 1.6 1.4 7.6 7.2 1.7 6.7 15.7
5001 JP Equity NIPPON OIL CORP* 10,142 14.8 13.7 0.8 0.7 7.3 7.3 2.3 2.2 5.3
5002 JP Equity SHOWA SHELL SEKIYU KK 3,959 12.5 16.7 1.2 1.1 8.0 8.7 3.2 2.0 5.4
5007 JP Equity COSMO OIL* 3,495 13.3 15.8 0.8 0.8 9.1 8.2 1.8 4.9 5.5
Regional average 9.6 9.2 1.2 1.1 6.2 7.8 5.0 6.7 14.4
Regional average (ex-Japan) 8.7 7.7 1.2 1.1 5.7 7.7 5.6 7.6 16.6
FTO US Equity FRONTIER OIL 2,846 9.7 7.9 2.4 1.9 5.1 4.5 0.8 16.7 30.6
SUN US Equity SUNOCO 4,835 11.8 8.2 1.8 1.6 5.3 4.2 2.9 2.1 26.5
VLO US Equity VALERO ENERGY 23,968 8.3 6.9 1.2 1.1 4.7 4.2 1.1 4.9 18.1
TSO US Equity TESORO 3,264 13.8 6.9 1.0 0.9 5.8 4.2 1.7 3.0 18.7
U.S. average 10.9 7.5 1.6 1.4 5.2 4.3 1.6 6.7 23.5
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Company Focus
Singapore Petroleum Co
Turnover 8,574 8,767 14,125 12,935 Net Fixed Assets 958 1,334 1,377 1,417
Cost of Goods Sold (8,072) (8,020) (13,244) (12,039) Invts in Associates & JVs 141 127 139 151
Gross Profit 502 747 881 896 Other LT Assets 60 83 83 83
Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (152) (172) (158) (163) Cash & ST Invts 429 483 592 852
Operating Profit 349 575 723 732 Other Current Assets 1,552 2,281 2,559 2,345
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 18 0 0 Total Assets 3,140 4,308 4,750 4,848
Associates & JV Inc 11 14 12 12
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (22) (25) (35) (33) ST Debt 444 837 837 837
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Other Current Liab 1,015 1,522 1,727 1,591
Pre-tax Profit 338 581 700 711 LT Debt 0 0 0 0
Tax (54) (73) (154) (149) Other LT Liabilities 111 159 159 159
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Shareholder’s Equity 1,570 1,790 2,027 2,261
Net Profit 285 508 546 562 Total Cap. & Liab. 3,140 4,308 4,750 4,848
Net Profit before Except. 285 508 546 562
EBITDA 416 698 842 855 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 537 759 832 755
Net Cash/(Debt) (15) (354) (245) 15
Sales Gth (%) 14.7 2.2 61.1 (8.4)
EBITDA Gth (%) (17.2) 67.6 20.6 1.5
Opg Profit Gth (%) (21.7) 64.7 25.7 1.3
Net Profit Gth (%) (29.5) 78.7 7.4 2.9
Effective Tax Rate (%) 15.9 12.6 22.0 21.0
Cash Flow Statement (S$ m) Rates & Ratio
FY Dec 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F FY Dec 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Pre-Tax Profit 338 581 700 711 Gross Margins (%) 5.9 8.5 6.2 6.9
Dep. & Amort. 56 91 107 110 Opg Profit Margin (%) 4.1 6.6 5.1 5.7
Tax Paid (20) (42) (80) (154) Net Profit Margin (%) 3.3 5.8 3.9 4.3
Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (11) (14) (12) (12) ROAE (%) 19.0 30.3 28.6 26.2
Chg in Wkg.Cap. (52) (273) (147) 82 ROA (%) 9.3 13.7 12.1 11.7
Other Operating CF 64 22 0 0 ROCE (%) 18.6 27.0 25.5 25.5
Net Operating CF 375 365 568 738 Div Payout Ratio (%) 63.2 60.8 60.0 60.0
Capital Exp.(net) (66) (408) (150) (150) Net Interest Cover (x) 15.8 22.8 20.8 22.1
Other Invts.(net) 0 (15) 0 0 Asset Turnover (x) 2.8 2.4 3.1 2.7
Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 35 0 0 Debtors Turn (avg days) 37.2 49.0 35.8 38.2
Div from Assoc & JV 9 11 0 0 Creditors Turn (avg days) 40.3 54.2 41.0 45.1
Other Investing CF (4) 7 0 0 Inventory Turn (avg days) 25.5 32.7 27.9 32.6
Net Investing CF (62) (369) (150) (150) Current Ratio (x) 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3
Div Paid (165) (284) (309) (328) Quick Ratio (x) 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9
Chg in Gross Debt 51 393 0 0 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.0 0.2 0.1 CASH
Capital Issues 5 1 0 0 Capex to Debt (%) 14.9 48.7 17.9 17.9
Other Financing CF (37) (52) 0 0 N. Cash/(Debt)PS (S cts) (2.9) (68.8) (47.4) 3.0
Net Financing CF (147) 58 (309) (328) Opg CFPS (S cts) 82.9 124.2 138.8 127.0
Net Cashflow 166 54 109 260 Free CFPS (S cts) 59.8 (8.2) 81.1 113.9
Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (S$ m) Segmental Breakdown
FY Dec 2Q2007 3Q2007 4Q2007 1Q2008 FY Dec 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
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Company Focus
Singapore Petroleum Co
DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (0-15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, 0-10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
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(DBSR GO). For access, please contact your DBSV salesperson.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This document is published by DBS Vickers Research (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVR"), a direct wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities
(Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVS") and an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd ("DBSVH"). [This report is intended
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The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty as to its
accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation.
Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of
judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. DBSVR accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential
loss arising from any use of this document or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an
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affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. DBSVR,
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies
and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation
was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of 11 Jun 2008, the analyst and
his / her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report
(“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities, directorships and trustee positions).
1. DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries do not have a proprietary position in the securities
recommended in this report as of 9 Jun 2008.
2. DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA"), a U.S.-registered
broker-dealer, may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject
company as of 11 Jun 2008.
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Company Focus
Singapore Petroleum Co
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