PERIODOS

MENSUAL
ALFA

0.3

PERIODOS
MENSUALE DEMANDA
S
3
16
4
18
5
20
6
12
7
16
8
20
9
TOTAL
ALFA

PRONOSTICO
16
16
16.6
17.62
15.934
15.9538
17.16766

0.5

PERIODOS
MENSUALE DEMANDA
S
3
16
4
18
5
20
6
12
7
16
8
20
9
TOTAL

PRONOSTICO
16
16
17
18.5
15.25
15.625
17.8125

D-P

A (D-P)

0
2
3.4
-5.62
0.066
4.0462
-17.16766

0
0.6
1.02
-1.686
0.0198
1.21386
-5.150298

D-P

A (D-P)

0
2
3
-6.5
0.75
4.375
-17.8125

0
1
1.5
-3.25
0.375
2.1875
-8.90625

P=P+A(D(D-P)^2
P)
16
0
16.6
4
17.62
11.56
15.934
31.5844
15.9538
0.004356
17.16766 16.3717344
12.017362 294.72855
358.24904

P=P+A(D(D-P)^2
P)
16
0
17
4
18.5
9
15.25
42.25
15.625
0.5625
17.8125
19.140625
8.90625
317.285156
392.23828

ALFA

0.2

PERIODOS
PRONOSTI
MENSUALE DEMANDA
CO
S
3
150
150
4
180
150
5
200
156
6
120
164.8
7
140
155.84
TOTAL
152.67
ALFA

0
30
44
-44.8
-15.84

0.25

PERIODOS
PRONOSTI
MENSUALE DEMANDA
CO
S
3
150
150
4
180
150
5
200
157.5
6
120
168.13
7
140
156.09
TOTAL
152.07
ALFA

D-P

D-P
0
30
42.5
-48.13
-16.09

0.36

PERIODOS
PRONOSTI
MENSUALE DEMANDA
CO
S
3
150
150
4
180
150
5
200
160.8
6
120
174.91
7
140
155.14
TOTAL
149.69

D-P
0
30
39.2
-54.91
-15.14

A (D-P)
0
6
8.8
-8.96
-3.17

A (D-P)
0
7.5
10.625
-12.03
-4.02

A (D-P)
0
10.8
14.11
-19.77
-5.45

P=P+A(DP)
150
156
164.8
155.84
152.67

P=P+A(DP)
150
157.5
168.13
156.09
152.07

P=P+A(DP)
150
160.8
174.91
155.14
149.69

(D-P)^2
0
900
1936
2007.04
250.9
5093.95

(D-P)^2
0
900
1806.25
2316.02
259.01
5281.27

(D-P)^2
0
900
1536.64
3015.33
229.3
5681.30

PERIODOS
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003

Y
VENTA (MILES)
85
89
92
95
93
98
99.999
102.285
104.570
106.856
109.141
111.427
113.712
1299.99

X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

XY
85
178
276
380
465
588
699.99
818.28
941.13
1068.56
1200.55
1337.12
1478.26

X^2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
169
819

VENTA (MILES)
100
95

f(x) = 2.2857142857x + 84
R = 0.8791208791

90
85
80
75
1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1994

1995