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CONSUMER MARKETS

The global gems and jewellery industry


Vision 2015: Transforming for Growth

A GJEPCKPMG report

Executive summary
The gems and jewellery industry is extremely global in nature-given
the geographic dispersion of the value chain - from mining of
gold, diamonds, and platinum in Africa, Canada, Australia, and
Russia to polishing and jewellery manufacturing in India, China,
and Turkey, and retailing in the U.S., European Union, Japan, and
the emerging markets of China and India.
As one of the most traditional industries, it has witnessed
sweeping changes since the beginning of this millennium. Supply
sources have become fragmented, raw material prices have shot
up, and consumers have become more demanding and less loyal
than ever before. Regulators are cautious and consumer activism
is on the rise. These pressures have driven changes that are more
intense and lasting than any witnessed in the previous 50 years.
In the absence of a comprehensive global view of the current and
likely future state of the industry, players indulge in selective future
gazing. Given the leadership role of Gem and Jewellery Export
Promotion Council (GJEPC) of India in the development of the
industry, it was considered appropriate to initiate a study to take stock of the
current challenges and predict a future for the industry. KPMG, a global network
of professional services firms, which has done extensive work in the industry
joined in and over the last six months, teams from both organisations conducted a
study of the global industry.
The study focusess on understanding the current size and scale of the value
chain, identifying trends that will have an impact on the future, predicting the
likely state of the industry by 2015, recommending initiatives, and developing a
roadmap for various players given the expected changes in the environment.
Apart from interviews with major industry leaders to gather insights, the study
used quantitative modelling techniques to estimate changes in the size and structure
of the industry.
The report is limited to the precious jewellery segment of the industry, covering
the entire jewellery value chain and its three main elements diamonds, gold,
and platinum, which constitute 95 per cent of the industry in terms of value.
Silver, coloured gemstones, and palladium have been covered partially.

Industry size, segments, and historical growth


The size of the global gems and jewellery industry is estimated at 146 billion U.S.
dollars (USD) at retail prices in 2005. The industry has grown at an average
Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.2 per cent since 2000.
Growth in industry segments

CAGR
200

(2000-2005)

146

160

5.2%

USD billion

136
120

113

111

2000

2001

118

124

80

40

0
2002

2003

2004

2005

Figure 1: Global jewellery sales (2000-2005), USD billion


Source: KPMG analysis

Diamond-studded jewellery is the largest segment of this industry (2005 sales


estimated at USD 69 billion); it has grown at a CAGR of 5 per cent over the last
five years. The plain gold jewellery segment is a close second with total retail
sales of USD 60.7 billion in 2005. Over the last five years, this segment has
grown the fastest (at a CAGR of 5.5 per cent), a direct result of the rise in gold
prices (CAGR of close to 13 per cent since 2001).
Market share of various jewellery segments
Plain platinum Others
jewellery
5.0%
6.2%

Diamond
Jewellery
47.2%
Plain gold
jewellery
41.6%

Figure 2: Retail mix of various jewellery segments (2005)


Source: KPMG analysis

Eight key world markets


Rest of the
World
23.7%

China
8.9%
India
8.3%
Italy
5.0%
Japan
8.3%
Turkey
2.9%

US
30.8%

Middle East
8.9%
UK
3.1%

Figure 3: Geographic share of the global


jewellery consumption (2005)
Source: KPMG analysis

Sale of jewellery is concentrated in eight key world markets, which corner more
than three fourth of the worlds sales. The U.S. is the world's largest market for
jewellery and accounted for an estimated 31 per cent of world jewellery sales in
2005. India and China are the emerging centres of jewellery consumption and
have steadily increased their share of the pie to 8.3 per cent and 8.9 per cent,
respectively (2005)
Value addition at the two ends of the value chain is the highest, with intermediate
segments adding relatively lower value (29 per cent in diamond cutting and polishing
and 32 per cent in jewellery manufacturing).
The global gems and jewellery value chain (2005)
0

20

Diamond rough production

12.7

Diamond mine sales

0.5

Diamond rough trade

40

60

USD billion
80

100

120

140

160

1.7

CPD output

4.4

Polished diamond inventory

(2.4)

Polished diamond trade

0.7

Polished diamond at wholesale


prices
Precious metals

17.6
40.6

Jewellery
fabrication/wholesale

20.6

Jewellery retail

67.2

World jewellery sales

146

Figure 4: The global gems and jewellery value chain (2005)


Source: KPMG analysis

Key trends and likely scenarios


Various socio-economic and political forces are driving the pace of change in the
gems and jewellery industry. These forces have given rise to a number of visible
trends (described in Figure 5) in each segment of the jewellery value chain:

Sourcing: This segment has witnessed an increased fragmentation of rough


diamond supply, emergence of new mines, local beneficiation movement in
mining countries and a bull-run in precious metal prices. Competition and
overcapacity in polishing and high debt levels have placed intense financial
pressure on most players in traditional processing centres.

Jewellery fabrication: Accelerating fashion cycles, relative factor costs


between manufacturing and consuming nations, and volatile metal prices
have fuelled a drive towards moving fabrication to low cost countries.

Diamond supply controlled by


few having high bargaining power
Steady supply of diamonds
emergence of new mines,
mining companies
Local beneficiation in
African countries

Jewellery retail: Increasing consumer sophistication, dwindling investmentdriven purchases, and competition from other luxury goods are influencing
the quantum and pattern of jewellery consumption in markets across the
world. Stagnation in key jewellery markets and retail organisation in emerging
markets are continuously altering the geographic distribution of jewellery
consumption. Increased consumer consciousness about issues around
origin/source of product' and 'labour conditions in manufacturing countries'
adds to the complexity.
Competition and overcapacity
in traditional centres
Israel and Belgium
losing market share
Traditional centres finding
rough procurement difficult

SOURCES OF PRECIOUS STONES AND METALS

Shrinking margins

Stagnating demand in
the U.S. the largest
market

Shortening fashion
cycles

Emerging consumption
centres linked with
economic growth

JEWELLERY FABRICATION JEWELLERY RETAIL


Consumer demand
for quality,
hallmarking gaining
importance

Diamond
mining
Increasing
rough prices
Declining
market share
of large
diamond
marketing
companies

Gemstone
processing

Coloured
gemstone
mining

Creation of store
and product
brands
Jewellery design
& fabrication

Gold
mining

Platinum
mining

Ore processing
& scrap
recovery

Jewellery
retail
Jewellery s
declining value
proposition

Bullion
trading

Recovery of
silver

High cost of financing


stock due to volatile
prices

Gold price bull run

High and volatile


platinum prices

High debt levels in


traditional centres
Technological
developments reducing
labour and skill intensity

Figure 5: Snapshot of key trends impacting the industry


Source: KPMG research

Intense competition in
the export markets

Changing retail
channels
Competition from
other luxury items
increasing
Increasing consumer
sophistication
Aggressive marketing to
boost demand

KPMG used the scenario analysis method for forecasting and modelling the
impact of each of these trends on the future of the industry. Based on trends
distilled from an analysis of current events and expectations of industry experts,
eight scenarios were identified as likely to cause a significant disruption to the
industry equilibrium.
The eight key scenarios that are likely to impact the industry are:
1. Mining countries encourage local beneficiation and capture a share of the
polishing industry.
2. Supply sources get fragmented and rough supply increases.
3. Consolidation occurs across the jewellery value chain.
4. Existing centres of the industry lose out in favour of new ones.
5. Substitutes such as synthetic diamonds and non-precious metals capture a
share of the precious jewellery market.
6. Demand for plain gold jewellery declines.
7. Large emerging retail markets such as China and India organise and
consolidate.
8. Jewellery loses out to competing luxury goods.
The effect of all the scenarios was estimated by building an economic model and
evaluating sensitivity of industry size and structure to the forces of change first
independently, to each scenario, and later, collectively with assigned probabilities.

Future of the global jewellery industry


Based on the collective impact of the eight scenarios identified, projections were
made about the most likely industry end state. What follows are seven key
conclusions about the size, state, and structure of the industry in 2010 and 2015.
Sluggish world jewellery sales
CAGR
280

(2000-2005)

230

240

185

USD billion

200
160

146

120
80
40
0
2005

2010

2015

Figure 6: Projected global jewellery sales


(2010, 2015), USD billion

4.6%

Global jewellery sales growth will be sluggish, and will see emergence of
new markets
Global jewellery sales will grow at 4.6 per cent year-on-year to touch USD 185
billion in 2010 and USD 230 billion in 2015. Palladium is expected to establish
itself as an alternative metal for jewellery fabrication, while gold and diamond
jewellery will continue to dominate the market together, accounting for about 82
per cent. Diamond jewellery will be the slowest growing segment at a CAGR of
3.3 per cent.
Growth in the industry will be slow as compared to that expected in other luxury
goods categories such as watches, perfumes, etc. For example, luxury apparel, a
USD 100 billion market today, is expected to grow at 10-15 per cent over the
next seven years1.

Source: Global market review of luxury apparel - forecasts to 2012, Just - Style (2006)

Projected share of industry segments and key consumption markets


China
13%

Plain Palladium
Others
jewellery
5%
6%
Plain platinum
jewellery
7%

RoW
28%
India
12%

Diamond
jewellery
41%

Italy
3%
Japan
4%
Turkey
3%
US
26%

Plain gold
jewellery
41%

Figure 7: Projected share of various jewellery


segments (2015)
Source: KPMG analysis

UK
2%

Middle East
9%

Figure 8: Projected share of key markets for


jewellery consumption (2015)
Source: KPMG analysis

China and India together will emerge as a market equivalent to the U.S.market by
2015. The Middle East will surface as another large market, accounting for close
to 9 per cent of the global jewellery sales in 2015.
Jewellery fabrication will feel the pressure of sluggish demand and will
move to new centres
Global jewellery fabrication output will grow at a CAGR of 5.1 per cent to reach
USD 95 billion by 2015. China and India will be the new centres for the fabrication
of studded jewellery, as the U.S.'s share will decline. Turkey will take over a
significant share of the gold jewellery fabrication market from Italy.
Value addition in diamond processing stage of the pipeline will increase
significantly
Cutting and polishing of diamond (CPD) centres will be the primary beneficiaries
of the fall in rough prices and value addition in polishing will increase from
29.3 per cent in 2005 to 34.1 per cent in 2015. They will also benefit from an
increased flow of diamond rough through the trade channel (a low margin route),
which would imply that rough prices being paid by CPD players will see a
downward trend.
The jewellery pipeline will see consolidation
Shrinking margins and increasing debt levels in the industry will force the
diamond industry to consolidate. This consolidation will have the maximum
impact on the diamond-processing segment of the value chain. Smaller players
will be acquired or will go out of business, and the following will emerge:

Handful of large integrated gems and jewellery players

High volume polishers

Niche polishers

Mass jewellery fabricators

Niche jewellery fabricators

Several retail formats

The structure of the diamond-processing industry will change considerably


This segment of the value chain will see changes in rough allocation to countries,
emergence of strong players, and weaker ones exiting the market.
India's share of the processing pie will drop from 57 per cent today to around 49
per cent (in value terms) by 2015. China will emerge as a strong player with 21.3
per cent of the diamond processing share. By 2015, around 9 per cent of the
world's diamonds, in volume terms, will be processed locally by mining countries,
with Angola, Namibia, and Botswana emerging as profitable CPD centres in Africa.
Projected structure of the global diamond processing industry

South Africa
5.5%
Namibia
1.5%

Russia
7.1%

US
1.4% Angola
3.2%

Israel
4.7%

Belgium
0.7%
Botswana
5.3%
China
21.3%

India
49.3%
Figure 9: Projected share of world diamond rough for processing (2015), in value terms
Source: KPMG analysis

Fragmentation of supply sources and slow diamond jewellery growth will


make the rough diamond industry more demand sensitive
Changes in demand-supply dynamics will decrease the ability of mining companies
to push rough at any price. Rough supply will become more fragmented. The
share of centralised distribution will decrease from the current 55 per cent to
less than 40 per cent (in value terms) and rough sold through traders will
increase to account for 45 per cent of total rough. As more rough is channelled
through traders and sold directly by mining companies, the industry will become
more competitive, leading to a drop in the value addition in diamond trading from
the present 12.9 per cent to 11.6 per cent in 2010 and 9.9 per cent in 2015.

Demand-supply trends will also exert a downward pressure on rough prices,


which would fall by 15-20 per cent to ensure the sustainability of the downstream
industry.
A number of distinct business models will emerge along the value chain by 2015
By 2015, the industry will witness the emergence of six-seven large conglomerates
with presence across the jewellery value chain. These large conglomerates will
be the industry leaders of tomorrow.
In addition to this, players in each part of the industry vaue chain will evolve into
business models (described in Figure 10) which will enable them to remain
competitive in the changed industry scenario.
Structure of the industry in 2015

Integrated Industry Majors


Multi-product
Retailers
(Global and
National)
Jewellery
Brands
Large Mining Companies
Mass
Jewellery
Fabricators

Relative
scale of
operation

Niche CPD
players

Pure Play
Rough
Traders

Sourcing

Upstream
Figure 10: Sustainable business models of the future (2015)
Source: KPMG analysis

Regional Jewellery
Chains

Backward Integrated Retailers

High Volume CPD Players

Mining

MNC Jewellery
Chains
National Jewellery
Retailers

Niche
Jewellery
Fabricators

Junior Mining
Companies

e-tailers

Diamond
Processing

Value Chain

Local Jeweler/ Independents

Jewellery
Fabrication

Jewellery
Retail

Downstream

Aspirational view of the future


While a modelling of the realistic case showcases the most likely turn of events,
history is witness to collective action changing industry fortunes. We believe that
if the actions recommended in this report are undertaken, the industry has the
potential to grow beyond USD 230 billion.

Jewellery sales could reach USD 280


billion by 2015
300
Aspirational case

USD billion

Realistic case

50
billion

200

100

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 11: Projected potential jewellery sales


(2015), USD billion
Source: KPMG analysis

We have estimated the range of impact to be around USD 50 billion, taking the
industry size to USD 280 billion by 2015. In such a situation, the industry would
be growing at a CAGR of 6.7 per cent, an increment of 2.1 per cent over the
realistic case. At this rate, the industry would be growing faster than the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and would be claiming a share of the market
from other luxury goods.
Diamond and plain gold jewellery (product segments) and India and China (markets)
will contribute the bulk of this incremental growth. This additional growth will
also have a salutary impact on other parameters of industry health e.g. inventory
levels (will decrease from 19 per cent to 7.5 per cent).
In order to realise this vision, stakeholders must come together, overcoming
internal differences and competitive issues, to undertake certain actions.
Capturing the industry potential segments and markets

Turkey
9%

Plain palladium
Others
jewellery
5%
Plain platinum 5%

Others
5%

US
35%

Middle East
9%

jewellery
1%

USD 50
billion

USD 50
billion

Diamond
jewellery
46%

Plain gold
jewellery
43%

India
17%

China
25%

Figure 12: Contributing markets to additional


growth of USD 50 biilion
Source: KPMG analysis

Figure 13: Contributing product segments to


additional growth of USD 50 billion
Source: KPMG analysis

Action programmes for the industry


To realise its potential by 2015, the industry would have to focus on growing
demand for jewellery as a category and strengthening industry-level and
enterprise-level capabilities. These programmes need to be initiated within the
next 12-18 months for its benefits to be realised over the next 10 years.

Agenda for realising industry potential

Strategic
Capabilities

rprise c apab
ente
iliti
ild
es
Bu

Operational
Capabilities

Grow the
jewellery
market

rprise c apab
iliti
ente
es
ild
Bu

Financial
Capabilities

Supporting
Capabilities

Figure 14: Action plan for the industry


Source: KPMG analysis

Develop demand for jewellery as a category


The biggest threat that the jewellery industry faces is from other luxury goods
industries. The industry needs to get together and defend itself against this
onslaught. If jewellery as a category can outgrow other luxury goods industries,
the benefits would be enjoyed by all constituents of the industry just as the problems
of low demand growth will be shared by all. Several initiatives will have to be
undertaken to foster the growth of jewellery as a category.

10

Promote jewellery as a category instead of distinct metals and stones:


While individual promotion organisations (World Gold Council, DTC, Rio Tinto
Diamonds, Platinum Guild International, etc.) have done a great deal to
sustain the demand for jewellery at its current level, much more can be
achieved if these agencies were to act collectively. We recommend the
formation of World Jewellery Federation, a nodal body comprising various
segments of the industry which will promoting jewellery as a category.

Identify new product and consumer segments: Unlike other luxury goods,
the target segments and value proposition of jewellery have remained
relatively unchanged. We believe it is time for the industry to think creatively
and target new customer segments and address newer needs. This
extension is an absolute necessity for guarding against stagnating sales.

Manage the portfolio of markets: Like any enterprise, an industry needs to


have a portfolio of markets markets that provide scale (large volumes, slow
growth), markets that provide growth (smaller volumes growing rapidly), and
markets with high potential for growth and volumes. For this the industry
needs to -

Re-establish value proposition in developed markets: Stagnation in


developed markets must be dealt with through aggressive marketing
and brand development, product and service innovation, and reaching
out to untapped consumer segments.
Maximise potential of emerging markets: Attractive emerging markets
like India and China suffer from lack of organisation, disparate trade
practices, and extreme fragmentation. Industry bodies need to work
with governments in these countries to modernise and transform
these markets. Several segments within these markets remain
untapped by large modern players due to lack of local knowledge or
absence of scale.
Identify markets of the future: We believe there are several other
markets like Russia, and Brazil, which are likely to be high-growth
economies and as such have the potential for jewellery consumption.
Such markets need to be uncovered through trade delegation visits,
conscious efforts by industry-promotion bodies, and bilateral
discussions between local governments and governments of
jewellery-manufacturing countries.

Strengthen industry-level capabilities


If the industry is to compete with the more glamorous, well-entrenched, and
significantly researched luxury goods industry, players will have to come together
to improve the general health of the sector. Increased transparency,
professionalising, lowering of financing costs and attracting high quality talent are
the needs of the hour.

Enhance image of the industry in the eyes of governments, regulators,


and consumers: The traditional image of the industry poses a barrier for
growth which is compounded by allegations of conflict diamonds, suspected
links with money laundering, and lack of transparency. The industry needs to
recognise this as a challenge and work towards eliminating such
allegations/suspicions wherever possible and containing the problem where
elimination is not possible.
Q

Publish information: Publishing as much data and information as


possible about the industry is one sure way of making the industry
visible to analysts and external stakeholders and alleviating doubts. At
present, data is available on mining (most countries) and retail (only
the U.S.), unlike other industries where industry bodies or players
themselves regularly put out information in the public domain for the
benefit of external stakeholders.

11

Promote transparency in business: Industry leaders, governments, and


industry organisations need to take it upon themselves to promote
greater transparency in all parts of the value chain. Some markets and
some parts of the value chain are notorious for the extent of off - the book transactions. Consequently, they depend on trusted family
members for handling the business, which constrains the ability to
grow, which in turn lowers the willingness to become transparent.

Professionalise and transform family-owned businesses: The bulk of the


industry comprises family-owned businesses, with the promoters and family
members playing hands-on/operational roles. To grow, individual enterprises
need to transform into professionally managed corporations that are listed on
stock exchanges, are widely held, guided by visionary founders, managed by
professional managers, and that subscribe to the contemporary standards of
corporate governance.

Attract talent from luxury goods industries: Nearly all the talent in the
industry today is home grown. There has been little infusion of talent, either
of young professionals at the entry stage or lateral entrants from other
industries. We believe the industry can benefit significantly by attracting
talent from other luxury goods industries. They can strengthen the branding,
marketing, and retail experience capabilities and help the industry garner a
greater share of discretionary spends.

Reduce the cost of financing: High-value raw materials have made the
industry capital intensive, and low transparency has led to a premium on
financing. Thus, while funds have been forthcoming, they are not at the most
economical rates. Further, with relatively few players accessing the capital
markets and modern financial products (compared to other industries), the
overall cost of financing has remained high. The industry can reduce this cost
and improve access to funds if individual players embrace transparency and
go public.

Players to select strategic position and enhance individual capabilities


The changes that the industry is likely to face in the coming years should be
looked upon both as challenges and opportunities. Over the next few years,
players that develop multiple capabilities to manage growth will flourish.

12

Compete on one of the four strategic positions: The fast-unfolding future


holds several challenges for the industry, but at the same time provides an
opportunity to morph into players with sustainable business models. In the
future, industry players will have to choose one of the following four strategic
positions to survive and build sustainable competitive advantage:

Big brother (presence across the value chain): Players with presence
across various segments of the value chain will function as a portfolio
of businesses, allowing them end - to - end visibility of the supply
chain, providing natural risk mitigation, and access to global talent.
Volume player (large scale operations in a single segment): Depth in a
particular segment of the value chain will allow players to compete
with others on the back of economies of scale. These high-volume
players will enjoy greater bargaining power, and their focus on one
segment will allow them to develop processes and systems that are
operationally the most efficient.
Specialist (possession of skills): Players that choose to compete on
skill will have to develop specialized expertise in various areas of
business - organizational flexibility, product design and development,
business operations, and the use of technology. The premium that
their goods will fetch will allow these players to employ the best talent
in the industry.
Straddler (presence in adjacent segments): In comparison to players
present only in one segment, these players would have the ability to
shuffle resources between the two segments in which they are
present, as well as hedge their risk and garner greater margins.

Critical capabilities for segments: Although the capabilities required by a


player will be dependent on future strategic position and business model, a
dominating presence in one segment of the value chain will force it to master
certain skills.
Q

Mining: Wide-spread exploration, mining, and possible mergers and


acquisitions are expected to place tremendous pressures on the
availability of capital in this segment of the value chain. Therefore, the
ability to raise capital at low costs will be crucial for players in this
segment.
Sourcing and processing: This is the segment that is likely to be at the
heart of the shakeout in the industry. Several players will acquire scale
through the inorganic-growth route. Managing mergers, acquisitions
and alliances will, therefore, be one capability that players in this
segment must possess.
Jewellery fabrication: With the bulk of jewellery manufacture
relocating to low-cost countries, players will be looking to squeeze out
maximum margins in this segment. Therefore, operational planning,
(including demand forecasting, supply chain optimisation, and
distribution planning) will be a critical capability for players in this
segment.

13

Jewellery retail: With the reorganisation of the retail markets of India


and China and increasing consumer sophistication, jewellery retailers
will be competing with luxury goods for greater footfalls and
consumers' share of the wallet. Consequently, skills to brand and
market jewellery will be of utmost importance to these retailers.

Way forward
So far the industry has grown due to the intrinsic attraction of its product, the
sporadic marketing push by some incumbents, and the entrepreneurial skills of
individuals. However, the threat posed by luxury goods, changing consumer
habits, industry's opaque and transactional mode of operation, and various socioeconomic and political forces are fast changing the environment the industry
operates in. Growth of the industry (and of individual players) is dependent on
their successful reinvention of the category, substantial infusion of capital and
talent, and adaptability to change.

14

www.in.kpmg.com
KPMG in India

The Gem and Jewellery Export


Promotion Council of India

Contact Us:
KPMG

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email: dsanwalka@kpmg.com
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Tel: +91 80 41866800
e-mail: ajaym@kpmg.com
GJEPC
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e-Mail: chairman@gjepcincia.com

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2006 KPMG, an Indian partnership and a member

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