National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook

National Interagency Fire Center

Predictive Services

Issued: July 1, 2010

Next Issue: August 2, 2010

Wildland Fire Outlook – July through October 2010

The July, and August through October, 2010 significant fire potential outlooks are shown below. The
primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

• Grassland Fuels: Abundant new fine fuel growth across the northern Great Basin, Northwest
and Northern Rockies is expected to lead to active grassland fires during periods of hot, dry
and windy conditions.

• Drought: Drought conditions continue to persist over portions of Alaska and the leeward side
of the Hawaiian Islands elevating fire potential.

• Southwest Monsoon: Moisture associated with the monsoon is expected to gradually move
northwestward from New Mexico throughout the month of July, and temper fire potential
across much of the Southwest by mid-July.

• Tropical Activity: Predicted wet conditions combined with an expected active tropical
season in the Atlantic will likely lead to lower fire potential across portions of the southeastern
states.

Note: Significant fire potential is defined as the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require mobilization of additional
resources from outside the area in which the fire situation originates.
Past Weather and Drought
June was colder than normal over the Northwest and Northern Rockies and warmer than normal in
the East. Precipitation over the last 30 and 90 days are shown below. Drought is forecast to persist
across portions of Alaska, the Northern Rockies, western Wyoming, the western Great Basin,
northern California, and the leeward side of the Hawaiian Islands. Alaska temperatures were near
normal for June although the month began with much above normal temperatures. Precipitation was
near normal throughout the central interior and slightly drier than normal in the north.

www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/monitoring/drought/ www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/
 Weather and Climate Outlooks
El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions are currently neutral. La Niña conditions are likely to develop
by late summer into early fall. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s monthly and
seasonal outlooks reflect a combination of neutral/La Niña impacts, soil moisture conditions, the latest
numerical weather model output (out to 14 days) and long-term climate trends.

A = Above normal, B = Below normal, N = Normal, EC = Equal Chances of Above/Below/Normal.

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif
Area Discussions
Alaska: Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for portions of the central and eastern
interior for July, then transitioning to normal for the remainder of the outlook period. Normal
significant fire potential is expected elsewhere. Persistent drought over Alaska for the past 11 months
has contributed to lower than normal fuel moisture levels. This combined with anticipated warmer
than normal conditions for July across the eastern two-thirds of Alaska, will lead to elevated fire
potential. The August through October forecast call for a shift in the weather pattern which should
produce more normal temperatures and precipitation. Therefore, fire activity is anticipated to become
closer to normal as summer progresses into fall.

Southwest: Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for portions of western and central
Arizona until the monsoon fully arrives, which is expected two to three weeks into the month of July.
Normal significant fire potential is forecast elsewhere for the remainder of the time period. The month
of July will begin with cooler than normal temperatures across the western one-half to one-third of the
region with near normal temperatures further east. This pattern should weaken a week or two into
July with a general shift to the monsoonal weather pattern with periods of warmer than normal
temperatures. Normal to above normal precipitation is expected across approximately the
southeastern one-third of the Area during at least the first week or so of the month. Most areas
further north and west will experience below normal to normal precipitation in early July. Moisture will
eventually head further northwest by around the 10th-20th of July allowing the monsoonal moisture to
finally invade areas across the northwestern one-half to one-third of Arizona, decreasing fire potential
to near normal. Some dry and mixed lightning outbreaks across the aforementioned areas are likely
ahead of this eventual imminent moisture surge. The latter portions of the summer thunderstorm
season will likely turn out drier than average across the majority of the region. This trend, combined
with likely warmer than normal temperatures could lead to a slight uptick in initial attack across some
areas of the region.

Northern Rockies: Normal significant fire potential is expected through October except for below
normal potential in northern Idaho and western Montana through mid-July. A very cool and wet spring
has delayed and shortened the fire season in the mountains, which is now expected to begin in late
July or August. At the lower elevations, fine fuel loading is well above normal and should cure out
during July. Once fine fuels cure, active grassland fires are likely during periods of hot, dry and windy
conditions. It should be noted that lightning tends to be somewhat above normal in the Northern
Rockies during La Niña summers. Overall, a short but active fire season is expected in August and
September. Fire season usually begins to diminish during late September and October.

Great Basin: Significant fire potential is expected to be normal through October except below normal
in July over northern Nevada and the higher elevations of Utah and Idaho. A cool, wet spring has led
to abundant fine fuels across much of the Area and has also delayed curing. Northern Nevada will
see periodic low pressure troughs and associated cooling, thus will see below normal fire potential in
early July with more normal potential by the end of the month. Going into July, fuel moisture readings
are higher than usual over the forests of Idaho and Utah, influencing below normal potential for most
of July with normal fire potential returning by the end of the month. At the lower elevations, fine fuel
loading is above normal (especially across the north) and should cure out during July. Once fine fuels
cure, active grassland fires are likely during periods of hot, dry and windy conditions. The August
through October period should see near normal fire potential across the Area.

Northwest: Normal significant fire potential is forecast for the Northwest except for below normal fire
potential in the Cascades and northeast Oregon during July. The Pacific Northwest was unusually
cool and wet in May and June. Surges of cool, wet weather should continue through early July with
warmer and drier weather for late July through September. At the lower elevations, fine fuel loading is
above normal and should cure out during July. Once fine fuels cure, active grassland fires are likely
during periods of hot, dry and windy conditions. Similar to the Northern Rockies, the Northwest tends
to see more lightning than normal but the vast majority of these storms are wet.
California and Hawaii: Normal significant fire potential in California is forecast through October
except for below normal potential along the central coast and over the southern Sierra. The leeward
side of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to see above normal significant fire potential through
October. June was wetter than normal over the northwest portions of California with very little rainfall
elsewhere in the state. June was also cooler than normal over most of the state. Fuels in northern
California are drying and curing at a normal rate. In the northern valleys and foothills below about
2500 feet, the abundant grasses and herbaceous fuels are now cured. The brush experienced good
growth in the spring. There are reports of grasses growing to 4 feet or higher. At the higher
elevations, the grass and herbaceous fuel loadings are also higher than normal with very good
continuity. By the end of July, these fuels should be cured or at least much drier at elevations up to
about 8000 feet. The below normal fire potential along the central coast is due to a deep marine layer
expected to persist through much of the summer, while a heavy winter snowpack should help the
southern Sierra fire potential remain below normal this summer. Drought is expected to continue
through the summer over the leeward side of the Hawaiian Islands.

Rocky Mountain: Normal significant fire potential is forecast through October except below normal in
far western Wyoming in July. Above normal rainfall occurred in early June, followed by drier weather
across Colorado and to a lesser extent across Wyoming during the last half of the month. Fuel
dryness is near normal for most of Colorado with the driest fuels in western Colorado and along the
Front Range. Fuel moistures are generally higher than normal in Wyoming and across the rest of the
Area. Short durations of fire activity are expected this summer, but overall, fire potential should be
near normal across the Area.

Eastern Area: Significant fire potential is expected to be normal through October. Precipitation
increased significantly across the northern Great Lakes through the month of June. Much of this area
had been in long-term drought leading into the summer of 2010. With the increased precipitation
events, drought conditions have begun to ease and this has led to fire potential returning to near
normal. However, short-term weather trends such as warm, windy days will be the main predictor of
fire potential across these areas through the summer.

Southern Area: Significant fire potential is forecast to be normal through October except for below
normal potential across portions of the Southeast due to moisture associated with tropical activity.
Increased humidity and summer thundershowers should alleviate fire potential across much of the
Area. Some areas could short-term elevated fire potential during prolonged dry periods.
 Historic and Predicted Wildland Fires and Acres Burned Data
Based on data reported Year-to-Date in 2010, nationally there were 75 percent of the average
numbers of fires burning approximately 76 percent of the average acres. Nationally, as of June 30, the
10 year average number of fires is 39,951 and the 10 year average acres burned is 1,954,779. The
following table displays 10 year historical, current and predicted information pertaining to fire statistics.
JUN 30, 2010 Average Projection for Average Historical Historical
Reported reported July Reported Low Year High Year
Year-To-Date for July YTD+Forecast YTD JUL YTD JUL of YTD JUL of
30 30 Low 30 High
ALASKA
Fires 466 105 603 407 267 2006 523 1999
Acres 913,271 762,187 1,980,333 1,116,342 56,481 2008 4,431,391 2004
NORTHWEST
Fires 207 1,118 878 1,741 1,073 2005 2,162 2001
Acres 840 163,525 66,250 186,303 12,853 2009 419,537 2002
NORTH OPS
Fires 854 1,010 1,561 2,239 1,235 2005 2,987 2008
Acres 10,221 75,932 55,780 112,673 15,814 2005 745,422 2008
SOUTH OPS
Fires 1,235 812 1,885 2,526 1,881 2001 3,161 2002
Acres 16,596 68,341 64,435 107,055 21,496 2008 302,495 2008
NORTHERN ROCKIES
Fires 483 800 963 1,677 894 2005 2,213 2000
Acres 4,102 115,720 50,390 138,855 21,428 2009 521,782 2006
EAST BASIN
Fires 260 826 838 1,268 816 2008 1,666 2001
Acres 30,636 312,781 218,304 368,503 19,817 2009 1,463,478 2007
WEST BASIN
Fires 71 312 290 541 300 2008 791 2006
Acres 109 195,694 117,525 301,087 14,933 2003 987,743 2005
SOUTHWEST
Fires 1,320 1,214 2,291 3,273 2,253 2008 5,035 2006
Acres 145,084 110,425 238,945 450,677 50,368 2001 925,086 2002
ROCKY MOUNTAIN
Fires 597 866 1,203 1,712 1,305 2004 2,834 2006
Acres 25,055 38,580 55,919 126,140 19,244 2001 479,992 2002
EASTERN AREA
Fires 8,560 867 9,427 9,769 7,153 2004 12,530 2009
Acres 85,019 5,799 90,818 103,006 48,199 2008 173,506 2003
SOUTHERN AREA
Fires 15,760 2,681 17,368 27,356 11,277 2003 40,193 2006
Acres 255,750 76,732 294,116 898,227 193,465 2003 2,335,375 2006
NATIONALLY
Fires 29,813 10,612 37,307 52,509 35,987 2003 70,948 2006
Acres 1,486,683 1,925,714 3,232,815 3,908,867 1,531,121 2001 5,614,770 2006

Prepared July 1, 2010 by the National Interagency Coordination Center Predictive Services Staff. The information
above was obtained primarily from Incident Management Situation Reports from 2000-2009, however some
inaccuracies and inconsistencies have been corrected. Therefore, the data may not reflect other historic records and
should not be considered for official statistical purposes.

Note: This national outlook and some geographic area assessments are currently available at the NICC and GACC
websites. The GACC websites can also be accessed though the NICC webpage at:
http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm