Sample Lesson Plan for Teachers

Title: How lucky are you?

Level: Form 6 or 7 (AS level)

Domain: Introduction to three typical discrete probability distributions

(Bernoulli, binomial, and geometric)

Learning Objectives:
1. To learn the definitions of Bernoulli, binomial, and geometric distributions
2. To know the basic properties (shape, mean, and variance) of the three discrete distributions
3. To understand the inter-relationship among the three distributions

Prerequisite Knowledge for Students:

1. Classification and presentation of data
2. Basic definition and properties of discrete probability distributions

Preparation:
1. If this lesson is to be conducted in classroom without Internet access, you can place 4 orange
coloureded (marked lucky) and 6 white coloured (unmarked) table-tennis balls in an opaque
bag for later use. Alternatively, you can use similar number of cartoon cards or any favorite
subjects.
2. If Internet access is available in your lesson, try to use the simulation program (provided by
StatNet) a few times for the colour balls drawing process.

Motivation:

1. Discuss with students about the coin-tossing experiments (with demonstrations):

- a coin is tossed once and observe whether the outcome is head or tail [Bernoulli]
- a coin is tossed 5 times and observe the number of heads obtained [Binomial]
- count the number of tosses until the first head is obtained [Geometric]

2 Emphasize the following properties:

- each trial has only two outcomes: success (says head) or failure (says tail)
- the repeated trials are independent
- the probability of a success (p) remains constant from trial to trial
[p = for an unbiased or balanced coin]
Main Task:

1. Explain the following procedures to students:

1.1 Each student picks 5 colour balls randomly from the computer simulation program
provided by StatNet. (Or, a student can randomly draw 5 colour balls with replacement
from an oblique bag that contains 4 orange and 6 white balls, mix the balls before each
draw, then pass the bag to another student to continue the process).

1.2 Each student should record the exact colour sequence of the 5 balls: O orange, W -
white
e.g. W1W2O3W4O5

2. Introduce the definitions of random variables to students (and tell students to observe the values
of C, X, and T for each draw):

C represents the colour of the first ball drawn: c = 0 (for white) or 1 (for orange)
X represents the number of orange balls obtained: x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
T represents the number of draws until the first orange ball is obtained: t = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
(if all 5 balls are white, then t = 6+)

[ For the example shown in step 1.2 above: C = 0, X = 2, T = 3 ]

3. Ask students to repeat steps 1 and 2 for at least thirty times. They should make 10 draws first
and then another 10 and so on in order to visualize the formulation of the final distribution.

4. Ask students to fill in the frequency column for X .

5. Teach students to construct the corresponding bar chart using a spreadsheet program such as
Excel (optional).

6. Ask students to complete the relative frequency column for X [ probability distribution for X]

7. Ask students to compare their results with those obtained from the simulation program.

8. Ask students to compute the mean and variance for X (a binomial random variable).
Here are the ideal results for X ~ Bin (5, 0.4)
Exercise:

Repeat tasks 4 to 7 for variables C (a Bernoulli random variable)

and T (a geometric random variable), they can ignore the case when t = 6+.

Ideal results for C ~ Ber (0.4) Ideal results for T ~ Geo (0.4)

Enrichment:

1. Ask students to find out any analogies in the following situations:

- a sample survey conducted to predict voter preference for a particular candidate.

- a new company wants to know the fraction of home that use Internet for shopping.
- a teacher is interested in the percentage of students who pass the course.
- a new drug is effective or ineffective when administered to a patient.
- a manufactured item selected from a production line is defective or non-defective.
- with each contact, either a salesperson will consummate a sale or no sale will result.
[Each subject sampled is analogous to the toss of an unbalanced or biased coin, p .
Each of these trials has two possible outcomes: success or failure.]

2. Challenging Tasks

- Ask students why those are the results for C, X, and T. [Hint: p = 0.4]
- Derive and explain the probability functions for the three variables. [Check with textbook.]
- Introduce the case of sampling without replacement [Hypergeometric distribution]

Remarks: It would be better if the lesson can be conducted in the Computer Room so that each
student can obtain the results promptly.