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s u sta i n a b i l i t y
Can We
Feed the World
Sustain
the planet?
A five-step global plan could double food production by 2050
while greatly reducing environmental damage
By Jonathan A. Foley
in brief
The world must solve three food problems simultane- goals: stop agriculture from consuming more tropical A system for certifying foods based on how well each
ously: end hunger, double food production by 2050, and land, boost the productivity of farms that have the low- one delivers nutrition and food security and limits envi-
do both while drastically reducing agricultures damage est yields, raise the efficiency of water and fertilizer use ronmental and social costs would help the public
to the environment. worldwide, reduce per capita meat consumption and choose products that push agriculture in a more sus-
Five solutions, pursued together, can achieve these reduce waste in food production and distribution. tainable direction.
Type of None
Agriculture
Another deterrent to growing more food is the cost in dam- nutrition: coastal fishing grounds. Fertilizer certainly has been a
age to the environment, which is already extensive. Only our use key ingredient of the green revolution that has helped feed the
of energy, with its profound impacts on climate and ocean acidi- world, but when nearly half the fertilizer we apply runs off rather
fication, rivals the sheer magnitude of agricultures environmen- than nourishes crops, we clearly can do better.
tal insults. Our research team estimates that agriculture has al- Agriculture is also the largest single source of greenhouse
ready cleared or radically transformed 70 percent of the worlds gas emissions from society, collectively accounting for about 35
prehistoric grasslands, 50 percent of the savannas, 45 percent of percent of the carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide we re-
the temperate deciduous forests and 25 percent of the tropical lease. That is more than the emissions from worldwide trans-
forests. Since the last ice age, nothing has disrupted ecosystems portation (including all cars, trucks and planes) or electricity
more. Agricultures physical footprint is nearly 60 times that of generation. The energy used to grow, process and transport
the worlds pavements and buildings. food is a concern, but the vast majority of emissions come from
Maps courtesy of James Gerber, Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota
Freshwater is another casualty. Humans use an astounding tropical deforestation, methane released from animals and rice
4,000 cubic kilometers of water per year, mostly withdrawn paddies, and nitrous oxide from overfertilized soils.
from rivers and aquifers. Irrigation accounts for 70 percent of
the draw. If we count only consumptive water usewater that is Five Solutions
used and not returned to the watershedirrigation climbs to 80 modern agriculture has been an incredibly positive force in the
or 90 percent of the total. As a result, many large rivers such as world, but we can no longer ignore its dwindling ability to ex-
the Colorado have diminished flows, some have dried up alto- pand or the mounting environmental harm it imposes. Previous
gether, and many places have rapidly declining water tables, in- approaches to solving food and environmental issues were often
cluding regions of the U.S. and India. at odds. We could boost food production by clearing more land
Water is not only disappearing, it is being contaminated. Fer- or using more water and chemicals, but only at a cost to the envi-
tilizers, herbicides and pesticides are being spread at incredible ronment. Or we could restore ecosystems by taking farmland out
levels and are found in nearly every ecosystem. The flows of nitro- of cultivation, but only by reducing food production. This either-
gen and phosphorus through the environment have more than or approach is no longer acceptable. We need truly integrated
doubled since 1960, causing widespread water pollution and solutions.
enormous hypoxic dead zones at the mouths of the worlds ma- After many months of research and deliberationbased on
jor rivers. Ironically, fertilizer runoff from farmlandin the name analysis of newly generated global agricultural and environmen-
of growing more foodcompromises another crucial source of tal dataour international team has settled on a five-point plan
source-intensive foods such as meat and dairycould make a Global Consequences of Land Use. Jonathan A. Foley et al. in Science, Vol. 309, pages
big difference. 570574; July 22, 2005.
Enough: Why the Worlds Poorest Starve in an Age of Plenty. Roger Thurow and Scott
Kilman. Public Affairs, 2010.
Moving toward a Networked Food System
Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People. H. Charles J. Godfray et al. in
in principle, our five-point strategy can address many food secu- Science, Vol. 327, pages 812818; February 12, 2010.
rity and environmental challenges. Together the steps could in- SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN ONLINE
crease the worlds food availability by 100 to 180 percent, while For more maps showing how food production can increase while environmental
significantly lowering greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity harm can decrease, see www.ScientificAmerican.com/nov2011/foley
losses, water use and water pollution.