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|TheDiplomat
By Hu Bo
April 01, 2016
Inthepastyear,theUnitedStateshasincreasinglybeguntoflexitsmilitary
muscleintheSouthChinaSea.OnMay20,2015,aU.S.NavyP8APoseidon,a
surveillanceandsubmarinehuntingaircraft,flewovertheairspaceofislands
andreefswhereChinawasconductingconstructionactivities.Afterthat,the
UnitedStatesbeganrepeatedlyhypingthatitwouldcarryoutfreedomof
navigationoperations(FONOP)neartheNanshaIslands(alsoknownasthe
SpratlyIslands).Todate,Washingtonhasopenlyadmittedthatitconducted
twoFONOPsintheSouthChinaSea.OnOctober27,2015,theU.S.Navysent
theUSSLassen,aguidedmissiledestroyer,tothewaterswithin12nautical
milesofZhubiReef(SubiReef)amongtheNanshaIslandsonJanuary30,
2016,theUSSCurtisWilbur,anotherguidedmissiledestroyer,intrudedinto
the12nauticalmileterritorialwatersoftheZhongjianIsland(knownasTriton
Island)oftheXishaIslands(theParacelIslands).Inaddition,theU.S.military
hassentstrategicweapons,includingaB52bomberandtheUSSJohn
Stennisaircraftcarrierstrikegroup,toperformpatrolmissionsintheSouth
ChinaSearegion,inabidtoshowoffastrongU.S.presenceintheregion.
WithregardtotheU.S.militaryoperationsintheSouthChinaSea,thereare
twosharplydifferentviewsinChina.Thosewhoareoptimisticbelievethatthe
U.S.maneuversintheSouthChinaSeamakenosenseatall,becausetheycould
nothinderChinasislandandreefconstructionactivitiesthere.Butthe
pessimistssaythattheU.S.militaryoperationsrepresentconsiderablemilitary
pressureonChina.IfChinadoesnotcompromise,theU.S.militarywould
continuetoelevateitsconfrontations,andthereemergesapossibilitythat
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ChinaandtheUnitedStatesmightengageinmilitaryconflictsintheSouth
ChinaSea.
Therearereasonsforbothschoolsofthought.WhiletheoptimistsseetheU.S.
militaryoperationsasbravado,thepessimistsseetheriskofaspiraling
escalationinthesituation.Thesetwoviews,however,failtotakethewhole
pictureintoconsiderationandfailtoseetheessenceoftheissue.
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Byanalyzingthesituation,itseasytofigureoutthattheU.S.operationsinthe
SouthChinaSeaarenothingbutonepoliticalordiplomaticshowafteranother.
TheUnitedStatesknowsbestofallthatitcouldnotdirectlyobstructChinas
sovereignactivitiesintheSouthChinaSea,sowhatithasattemptedtodoisto
increaseChinascostsforsuchsovereigntydefendingactivitiesthrough
military,political,diplomatic,andmediatools,soastoputChinainadifficult
andembarrassingsituationdiplomatically.Nodoubt,themediaalwayspays
closeattentiontomilitaryfaceoffsorconflicts,butinreality,warisnot
imminent.TheU.S.militaryoperationscould,nodoubt,bemeanttobea
deterrent,buttheyprimarilyserveastoolsforaccomplishingWashingtons
politicalanddiplomaticgoals,alongwithdiplomaticandmediamaneuvers.
OnthefreedomofnavigationoperationsintheSouthChinaSea,theUnited
StateshasalwaysclaimedthattheFONOPsarenodifferentfromsuch
operationsinotherregionsacrosstheworld,andtheUnitedStatesappliesa
unifiedcodeofconducttoallofsuchoperations.SomeChinesemediareports
andexpertsseemtohaveboughttheU.S.argument,sayingthatthemain
motivesoftheU.S.militaryintheregionaretochallengeChinasexcessive
maritimeclaimsandthatitsnotworthmakingatempestinateacupoversuch
operations.
ButtherecentU.S.militaryoperationsintheSouthChinaSeawere
extraordinary.EvenbythestandardsandtraditionoftheU.S.Navy,these
FONOPswereallconductedinahighprofilemanner,andlookedlike
challengesChinasterritorialclaims.ItistruethattheUnitedStatesconducts
dozensofFONOPseachyearallovertheworld,buttheoperationsareusually
carriedoutinaquietandlowkeymanner,withdetailsabouttheseoperations
keptsecret.ItsrecentFONOPsintheSouthChinaSea,however,were
exceptionallyhighprofile.TheU.S.militaryevendeliberatelydisclosed
specificsabouttheoperationstothemedia,andencouragedthemassmediato
sensationalizeandhypeitsoperationssoastodirectglobalattentiontothe
FONOPs.
Withthedeploymentofadvancedweaponrycoupledwithextensivemedia
coverage,theU.S.militaryhasputonashowsimilartoaHollywood
blockbuster.ThegeneralpublicandpoliticalforcesinboththeUnitedStates
andChinaalsogotinvolved,andthemilitaryoperationshaveevolvedinto
politicalissuesinbothcountries.IntheUnitedStates,theWhiteHouseandthe
PentagontriedtocreateacrisisatmospherewithasenseofaloomingChina
threat,andattemptedtopolishastrongimagefortheU.S.militaryin
safeguardingitsnationalinterests.
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AndasforChina,theUnitedStatescould,throughswayingtheChinesepublic
opinion,exertitsinfluenceonChinasdomesticpoliticalprocess.Ithadthe
intentionofgettingagrowingnumberofChineseinvolvedindebatingChinas
policiesontheSouthChinaSea,andofobstructingChinaseliteclassfrom
reachingconsensusontheSouthChinaSeaissue.TheFONOPoperationsby
theU.S.military,viewedbymanyinChinaasaninsult,werealsomeantto
underminetheauthorityoftheChinesegovernmentandleadership,andcreate
extradifficultiesfortheChinesegovernment.
FortheUnitedStates,suchoperationsareusefuldiplomatictools,servingits
goalsbykillingtwobirdswithonestone.Ontheonehand,theycouldexert
pressureonChina,andontheotherhand,theywouldalsohelpappeaseU.S.
alliesandpartnersintheregion,suchasthePhilippinesandVietnam.
ThepoliticizationoftheU.S.operationsintheSouthChinaSeaisalsointended
totestChinaspolicies.TheUnitedStatesoftenblamesChinaforconducting
activitiesthatitclaimsthreatenpeace,andforexpandingthegrayareas
betweenpeaceandwar.Infact,suchstatementscouldbemoreappropriately
usedtodescribetheSouthChinaSeapoliciesoftheU.S.military.Itfirstarrived
attheNanshaIslands,andthensailedtotheXishaIslandsitfirstoperatedin
whatitclaimedtobewaterssurroundingalowtideelevation,andthen
conductedaFONOPinundisputedterritorialwaters.Incarryingoutthe
FONOPsintheSouthChinaSea,theUnitedStatesclearlyfollowedacautious
approachoftakingonestepfirsttotesttheresponsebeforemakingthenext
move.Intermsofrhetoric,theU.S.militarywasalwaysinhightoneinspecific
operations,however,ittriedtobecautiousandkeepthingslowprofile.Thisis
aclearcutstrategyoftestingChinasresponseandpolicybottomline.
InthefaceofU.S.militaryoperationsintheSouthChinaSea,Chinanaturally
shouldbepreparedmilitarily.Duetothecomplexityandpoliticizedtrendofthe
U.S.militaryoperations,ChinashouldlookbeyondtheseFONOPs,andshould
fullyrealizethepoliticalmotivesandimpact.Chinashouldadoptandapplyall
optionstocounterandexposethetrapssetbytheU.S.throughsuchmilitary
operations.
HuBoisaResearchFellowattheInstituteofOceanResearchofPeking
University.
ThearticleoriginallyappearedonChinaUSFocusandisreprintedwithkind
permission.
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