GSD RAPv4 / HRRR v3 Status Dec 2016

Steve Weygandt, John Brown, Curtis Alexander, Stan Benjamin

NOAA ESRL GSD for FAA AWRP MDE

1. Introduction

This report summarizes the status of work toward the RAPv4 / HRRRv3, which is tentatively
scheduled for NCEP operational implementation early in calendar year 2018 (Q2FY18), with a
code handoff to EMC scheduled for June 2017. Following the NCEP operational
implementation of RAPv3 / HRRRv2 in August 2016, ESRL GSD began transferring
enhancements into the GSD real-time experimental RAP / HRRR system. These enhancements
include a variety items in both the model formulation (physics especially) and data assimilation,
as summarized in Table 1. These changes have first been tested in individual cases, then in
retrospective runs of a few days to two weeks, before inclusion in the GSD parallel RAP and
HRRR, where final evaluation occurs. A first set of data assimilation changes (indicated in red
in Table 1) was made around 15 Oct. 2016. A second set of mostly physics changes was made
around 15 Dec. 2016 (indicated in purple in Table 1). Additional planned changes are indicated
in blue in Table 1.
Table 1. Updated list with status of upgrades for GSD real-time experimental RAP4 / HRRR3 system.
Items indicated in purple are the model and physics changes introduced on 15 Dec. 2016. Items in red
were previously introduced and items indicate in blue are still to be introduced.
2. Impacts from changes

Within the first set of data assimilation changes, the most prominent upgrade was an increase in
the weighting of the ensemble portion of the hybrid ensemble-3DVAR analysis covariance from
.75 to ,85 (relative to the isotropic 3DVAR portion). These ensemble weights come from the 80
member global ensemble, and increased used of them has been a significant factor in increased
RAP (and HRRR skill).

A second set of more extensive changes was made in mid-December, with upgrades being the
switch to a hybrid vertical coordinate (sigma transitioning to pressure aloft) and enhancements to
the MYNN PBL scheme, Smirnova LSM scheme, and Thompson microphysics scheme. A key
upgrade in this change bundle was the new WRF-ARW hybrid vertical coordinate, in which the
sigma vertical coordinate transitions to a purely pressure coordinate at upper-levels. This change
was described in the November monthly report and was implemented to reduce the excitation of
excessive terrain-induced noise (an issue noted by the turbulence PDT). While this enhancement
has resulted in general improvement in temperature and relative humidity forecasts, we have
noted some degradation of wind forecasts in the 150-400hpa layer in the form larger wind RMS
errors and a high bias in wind speed, particularly in the HRRR. We have determined that this
150-400mb degradation in wind skill is likely related to introduction of the hybrid coordinate.
We did not see this in earlier retrospective experiment comparisons with and without the hybrid
vertical coordinate, probably because these were warm-season retrospective runs with the RAP
(where the negative impact is less) when jet-level winds and mountain-wave activity was much
less than in winter. It appears that the quieter forecasts, especially for vertical motion, that result
from the hybrid coordinate, are not removing as much momentum from the upper level jet as was
the case with the original pure sigma coordinate due to reduction in both horizontal and vertical
mixing, resulting in the high-speed bias. Discussions with NCAR have suggested some possible
remedies for this situation, including possible introduction of gravity-wave drag. While we are
confident that a solution to this jet-level wind issue will be found, allowing use this new hybrid
vertical coordinate in both the RAPv4 and HRRRv3 (and Alaskan HRRR), we have temporarily
remove this upgrade from the GSD RAPv4, while we further investigate refinements to this
upgrade in coordination with NCAR.

Verification statistics that illustrate the impact of the various changes can be seen in Fig. 1, which
show vertical profiles of the GSD vs. NCEP RAP upper-level wind RMS errors (vs. rawinsondes)
for four different periods. The status of the RAP systems for the different periods, as well as the
dates of key changes, is indicated below (before Fig. 1). It is important to note that while the mid-
December 2016 GSD RAPv4 prototype change package also included changes to the physics
schemes, our investigation indicates the hybrid vertical coordinate is the likely cause for the
tropopause wind issues.
 RED BLUE

1) 1 July 20 Aug 2016 NCEP operational GSD real-time

RAPv2 RAPv3

23 August 2016: NCEP operational implementation of RAPv3 / HRRRv2

2) 1 Sept 10 Oct 2016 NCEP operational GSD real-time
RAPv3 RAPv3 (no changes
from NCEP yet)

~15 October 2016: Data assimilation (DA) upgrade package to GSD RAPv4 / HRRRv3
3) 1 Nov 30 Nov 2016 NCEP operational GSD real-time
RAPv3 RAPv3 (with DA
changes)

~15 December 2016: Model upgrade package to GSD RAPv4 / HRRRv3

4) 25 Dec 15 Jan 2016 NCEP operational GSD real-time
RAPv3 RAPv3 (with DA
and model changes)

Fig. 1. Upper-level verification (RMS errors for wind) against rawinsondes for different NCEP RAP
versions (red) and GSD experimental real-time RAP versions (blue) 6-h forecasts, from different
verification periods illustrating various upgrades. Error bars are shown and are larger for the shorter
duration comparison time-periods.
Fig. 2 illustrates the higher wind speed bias near the tropopause for the GSD RAPV4 prototype
(blue) compared to the NCEP operational RAPv3 (red). This bias difference is an aspect of the
issue hybrid coordinate issue.

Fig. 2. Upper-level verification (bias errors for wind) against rawinsondes for GSD experimental real-
time RAPv4 prototype versions (blue)before and after the hybrid vertical coordinate upgrade (left and
right) vs. the NCEP RAPv3 (red) for 6-h forecasts. Error bars are shown and are larger for the shorter
duration comparison time-periods.

It is important to note that hybrid vertical coordinate upgrade did not adversely affect the
temperature and relative humidity forecasts from the RAP and HRRR and contributed to small
improvements. Fig. 3 shows the profile of upper-level temperature RMS errors before and after
the 15 Dec. 2016 GSD RAPv4 change bundle.

Fig. 3. Upper-level temperature RMS errors against rawinsondes for GSD experimental real-time RAPv4
prototype versions (blue) before and after the hybrid vertical coordinate upgrade (left and right) vs. the
NCEP RAPv3 (red) for 6-h forecasts. Error bars are also shown.
A similar comparison for relative humidity forecasts from the RAP is shown in Fug. 4, indicating
statistically significant improvement in upper-level relative humidity RMS errors, following the
mid-December GSD real-time experimental RAP model upgrade package. It is important to note
that in addition to the hybrid vertical coordinate, that upgrade package also included changes to
the MYNN PBL scheme, Smirnova LSM, and the Thompson microphysics scheme.

Fig. 4. Upper-level relative humidity RMS errors against rawinsondes for GSD experimental real-time
RAPv4 prototype versions (blue) before and after the hybrid vertical coordinate upgrade (left and right)
vs. the NCEP RAPv3 (red) for 6-h forecasts. Error bars are also shown.

Evaluation of a variety of other verification statistics (not shown) indicates the following aspects
to the current (as of late Dec. 2016) GSD real-time experimental prototype RAPv4 / HRRRv3
system: the diurnal bias cycle for surface temperature and dewpoint is reduced (improvement)
and HRRR precipitation forecasts are slightly better for the HRRRv3 compared to HRRRv2
(slight better CSI for all threshold and reduction of the high bias). One area that merits further
examination is a pattern of low bias (and reduced skill) for HRRR low ceiling forecasts since the
mid-December GSD upgrade package (statistics not shown). Preliminary investigation suggests
this is related to the model physics upgrades and evaluation is continuing to find a more exact
cause and a solution.

4. Summary

This report provides a summary of the data assimilation and model enhancement work toward
the RAPv4 / HRRRv3 planned for operational implementation in 2018. Fall 2016 progress has
been good, despite the detection of a few areas where upgrades are degrading GSD forecast
performance. The most significant issue is the hybrid vertical coordinate for which that upgrade
is being temporarily removed from the GSD RAP and HRRR, pending further evaluation.
Overall, we remain on schedule for finalizing all upgrades for a June 2017 code handoff to EMC.