King Saud University, Petroleum Engineering Department, P.O.

Box 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia

Forecasting the Future Production Performance for Depletion Drive Reservoirs

Using a New Spreadsheet Program
Dr. Ahmed A. Gawish
Abstract
Many methods are used for forecasting original hydrocarbon (H.C.) in place. Material
balance equation (MBE) provides performance of the reservoirs as a function of average
reservoir pressure. Combining the two concepts of (MBE) and Darcy's equation would
enable to predict the future production performance of reservoir as a function of time.
The future performance of reservoir is forecasted in the two stages: the first one is to
predict cumulative hydrocarbon (H.C.) production as a function of declining reservoir
pressure, and the second stage of prediction is the time-production phase. A spreadsheet
program is designed to calculate the parameters that indicate the reservoir future
production performance.. Our program is easy, fast, and accurate. The output from our
program includes charts and tables.
Introduction
MBE in its various mathematical forms is designed to provide estimates of the initial
H.C. in place, water influx (We), and size of gas cap (m). Using MBE to predict the
reservoir future performance requires two relations. The first is the equation of producing
(instantaneous) gas-oil ratio, and the second relation is the equation for relating saturation
to cumulative oil production. There are four methodologies that are used to estimate the
future reservoir performance. These are Tracy's, Muskat's, Schilthuis's and Tamer's.
The time required for production can be calculated by applying the inflow performance
relation (IPR) in conjunction with the MBE. Also the time can be estimated by using a
combination between the MBE, IPR, and a vertical lift performance (VLP) or at the
minimum bottom hole flowing pressure. (Pwf). .

Literature Bac~round
Kenneth W. et al described a computer model for production forecasting of oil and gas.
It was developed and used to select the ratio of gas to oil produced by each gas-oil
separator pressure(GOSP) in a series of oil fields in order to maximize/minimize either
the gas or the oil production. The model is easy to construct and to adjust to changing
conditions; and the response is instantaneous.
Chester R.2 used the plotting of the true ultimate oil recovery against time on a semi-
logarithmicscale. A clear 41- year downwardlineartrend emerges.The gravity-drainage
mechanismis one of the most efficient ways of producing an oil field. Unfortunately,
most oil fields can't be produced economicallyunder free-fallgravity alone becausethe
effective oil permeability is too low, the oil viscosity is too high or the dip of the
formation is too small. An engineer must calculate gravity-drainage recovery as a
.

function of time. In 1978 Herman Dykstra3 studied and broadened the application of
Cardwell and Person's method of predicting oil recovery under free-fall gravity drainage
recovery, and he is expanded the account for residual oil saturation.
Kabir et al4 used an analytical approach for forecasting oil well's rate behavior rapidly for
a well of any orientation (vertical or horizontal) and located it in various drainage
configurations.
Differentmaterial-balancemethods, and the communicatingreservoir model (CRi are
used. The model is able to estimate the reservoir size much more accurately than the

(354)
. T.." (.;t-r) .r..P'i,,-\,. .4J.r,!IJ 41.,...,.s::JI
L..~I .,t.., ~I 'i)J-II 'i.rA1'}j11
conventional p/z- plot method. The (CR) model can be implemented with a simple
spreadsheet program.
A new correlation was developed that can be used to predict miscible or near-miscible
residual oil saturation6,7, (Sorrn),for a wide range of injected gases compositions, crude
oils, temperature, and pressure conditions. The correlation is based on the representation
of the chemical and physical properties of the crude oil and the injected gas through
solubility parameters (8). The advantage of this approach is that it has the characteristics
of both the injected gas and crude oil included in the correlation, in contrast to
correlations based solely on the properties of the injected gas.
This empirical correlation should have utility in screening studies as a simple means to
forecast residual oil saturations as measured in coreflood tests. The correlation can be
used to predict roughly the effects of changes in pressure, temperature, or injected gas
composition on residual oil saturation.
Instantaneous Gas-Oil Ratio (GaR):
The Produced gas-oil ratio (GOR) at any particular time is the ratio of standard cubic feet
of total gas being produced at any time to the stock-tank barrels of oil being produced at
that same time.
f.Jo/3o
()
Krg
GOR = Rso + I
K,o f.Jg/3g
There are three types of gas-oil ratios, instantaneous GOR, solution GOR, (Rs), and
cumulative GOR, Rp where:
G
R =-L 2
P NP
N,
.'. Gp = J
0
(GOR)dN p 3

The incremental cumulative gas produced,

N"
t!Gp =
N"
J(GOR)dN p 4
Between NPI and NP2,the above equation can be approximate to:

uA G -- GORl+GOR2 (N P I - N P2') or
p 2
t!Gp = (GOR)avg.t!Np
:. Gp = "J)GOR)avg.t!Np 5

The reservoir fluids saturation equations

The saturation of reservoir fluids (oil, gas, and water) in the reservoir is defined as the
volume of the fluid divided by the pore volume of reservoir.
NfJ .
S . = -.!!!... and
01 P.V.
(355)
'I' . . 'I" (,J-.1"::"'-)./..PI' '\ - \ 'I" '4 J.r.!'J 4",...,s:J\ ~J.:J,\ <J \j.\ <.i).rJ1 <.i.;.all ) j!.1
so; = 1- S,.; Then,
S =(N-Np)*Po 6
0 NPoi
I-S,.;
Sg =1-So -S,.; 7

From Equation (1)

:. Krg = (GOR - R,)(/-lgPg) 8

Kro /-loPo

K
And then plotting the -..!! versus Sg on a semi-log paper to find slope (a) and the
Kro
intercept (b).

Kg = a * e b*S, 9
Ko

The equation gives a straight line on a semilog plot has a slope (b) and an intercept (a).
The reservoir PVT data must be available in order to predict the primary recovery
performance of a depletion-drive reservoir in terms of Npand Gp. These data are:
. Initial oil-in-place (N).
. Hydrocarbon PVT.
. Initial fluid saturations.
. RelativepermeabilityData.
All The techniques that are used to predict the future performance of a reservoir are based
on combining the appropriate MBE, with the instantaneous GOR using a proper
saturation equation. The calculations are repeated at a series of assumed reservoir
pressure drops. There are several techniques that were specificalIy developed to predict

..
the performance of the solution-gas-drive reservoirs inc1uding7,8:
Tracy's method,
.

.. Muskat's method,
Tamer's method,
Schilthuis's.

Tracy's method is only one, that we will study through this research.
The methodoIo!!V of Tracv's :
Tracy's suggests that the general MBE can be rearranged and expressed in terms of
two functions ofPVT variables for depletion drive reservoir without water influx:
N =N p cI>0 + Gp cI>g 10
where:

cI> = Po- RsPg II

0 (Po-PO;}+(RSi-Rs)Pg

(356)
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<J 1-1
r.i).rJ1 r.i~I ) j.I.\
 = f3g 12
- 13 . ) + (R . - R )13
<I>
g (130 01 Sf S g

M1 =1- (N; <I>+ G; <I>g) ----------------

0 13
p <I>0 + (GOR)avg <I>g

D.Gp = (GOR) ovgM1 p 14

Tracy suggested the following alternative technique for solving equation (13):
1- Select an average reservoir pressure
2- Calculate the values of the PVT functions <I>0 and <I>g.

3- Estimate the GOR at assumed reservoir pressure from PVT data.

4- Calculate the average instantaneous GOR
GOR = GORassum.+ Rso) . 15
2
5- Calculate the incremental oil production,1Np from equation (13).
6- Calculate cumulative oil production (Np).

Np =N; +D.Np 16

7- Calculate the oil and gas saturations at selected average reservoir pressure by using
equations (6, and 7).
K
8- Obtain relative permeability ratio --'!.. at Sg.
Kro
9- Calculate the instantaneous GOR from equation (1).
10- Compare the estimated GOR in step (3) with the calculated GOR in step (9). If the
values are within acceptable tolerance, proceed to next step. If not within the
tolerance, set the estimated GOR equal to the calculated GOR and repeat the
calculation from step (2).
11- Calculate the cumulative gas production.

Gp =G;+D.Np(GOR)ovg ---- --17

12- Since results of the calculations are based on 1 STB of oil initially in place, a final
check on the accuracy of the prediction should be made on the MBE, or:

(357)
T . .,. (.Y-.r-)./..Pi" - ,,. '4 J~'J 1,o",.,s:J,
~, .,;.r'~' <.;JrJl <.;.J""'11
.}jil
 N p ct> 0 + Gp ct>g =1:t tolerance 18

13- Repeat the calculation from step (I).

Reservoir Performance relatioe: to Time

With the average reservoir pressure within the interval, the Vogel correlation in equation
(19)8 or any other two phase correlations can be used for the calculation of the well
(IPR). Combination with (VLP) will lead to the well production rate. Finally production
rate and cumulative production versus time can be established.
2

~ = 1- 0.2 Pwf - 0.8 Pwf 19

Qornax[ ( P, ) ( P, ) ]

Qrnax=. KohP 0.472r 20

1. 8* 141.2 /3oPo[In !..+S]
rw

The following methodology can be employed to correlate the predicted cumulative field
production with time (t):

1- Plot the predicted cumulative oil production Np as a function of average reservoir

pressure (P).
2- Construct the IPR curve for each well in the field at the initial average reservoir
pressure pO.Calculate the oil flow rate of the entire field by taking the summation
of the flow rates (composite IPR).
3- Using the minimum bottom-hole flowing pressure (Pwf)min,determine the total
field flow rate (Qoh.
4- Select a future average reservoir pressure (P) and determine the future IPR for
each well in field.
5- Using the minimum (Pwf),determine the field total oil flow rate (Qoh.
6- Calculate the time (~t) required for the incremental oil production ~Np during the
first pressure drop interval, Le. from (po) to (P), by:

M= ~ p 21
(Qo)T
7- Repeat the above steps and calculate the total time to reach an average reservoir
pressure (P) by:

t=LM ~ 22

Spreadsheet Program

(358)
y . .,. (.:r..r->i.r.pi \ 'I - \,. .4).,;:,11) ""'1.".,,SJ1 ~ ..,...~I 'i )~I
:L..J.:.>I 'i.roll } j!.1
The spreadsheet program consists of three files: a data file, a program file, and a output
file.
I-Data in File
The data file contains PVT properties such as oil formation volume factor, gas formation
volume factor, solution gas oil ratio, and oil and gas viscosity as function in reservoir
pressure. Also oil and gas relative permeability data, reservoir permeability for oil,
reservoir thickness, reservoir drainage radius, well bore radius are available for reservoir.
All these data are shown in appendices (A, B, and C)
2-Program File
The program file includes all calculations. These calculations include <poand <pgat each
pressure value from equations 11 and 12. Increment oil and gas production are found
from equations 13 and 14 and its cumulative, (Np and Gp) are calculated by using
equation 16 and 17. Calculate the oil saturation from equation 6 and also gas saturation
from equation 7. The relative permeability for oil and gas is calculated as a straight line
to determine the slope and intercept. Calculate the Ravfrom equation 1. The final check
on the accuracy of the prediction is calculated by using equation 18. We use an alteration
method to find the right assuming gas oil ratio. It can be made easy in our program.
3-Data output
The data comes out from our program. Can be summarized in many relations as:
The oil and gas relative permeability,
The average gas oil ratio (Rav)and solution gas oil ratio (R.),
The oil and gas produce (Npand Gp) for each reservoir forecasting pressure,
Inflow relationship (IPR) at future reservoir pressure,
The rate of oil production (Qo) and oil produced (Np) at future times are available in our
program also.
A table for all the results is also available in our program. Our program is easy for
forecasting the future production performance of a depleted reservoir.

Table (1) The Results of The Program.

GORass. P o 9 R <1>0 <1>g GOR"... <iNp Np

SCF{STB PSI BBljSTB BBljSCF SCF{STB dimensionless

STB{5CF SCF{STB *N, STB *N, STB
840 4350 1.43 0.00069 840 840
840 4150 1.42 0.00071 820 199.47619 0.1690476 830 0.002943031 0.002943
770 3950 1.395 0.00074 770 49.119048 0.0440476 770 0.009006309 0.0119493
4153 3750 1.38 0.00078 730 22.642458 0.0217877 2441.5 0.006924333 0.0188737
5367 3550 1.36 0.00081 680 13.577181 0.0135906 3023.5 0.007070887 0.0259446
6672 3352 1.345 0.00085 640 9.4235294 0.01 3656 0;0060654 0.03201

Continuos Table (1)

So S9 1101119 GOR".L <iGp Gp R Np'<I>o+Gp'C1>9

Fraction Fraction Ratio Ratio SCF{STB SCF 5CF SCF{STB STB

840

(359)
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f,pi \' - \ T''4 J.r:JIJ;.,;1"..,SJ1
~.u.1 .J ~I ~).rJ1 ~rUl j. j1.1
 840
0.6930592 0.0069408 0.0089032 53 830 2.442716 2.442716 830 1
0.6747073 0.0252927 0.0126316 56 770 6.9348577 9.3775737 770 1
0.6627748 0.0372252 0.0158574 61 2441.3775 16.904912 26.282485 2441.3775 0.999981516
0.6484621 0.0515379 0.0208309 67 3023.3452 21.377732 47.660217 3023.3452 0.999985129
0.637316519 0.062683481 0.025761236 74 3656.489189 22. 17807009 69.83828694 3656.489189 1.000029671

Results and Discussion

The oil and Gas relative permeability
Fig. (1) shows the relation between the ratio of gas and oil relative permeability on a semi
log-scale against gas saturation as straight line we found the slope of the line equal 19.06
and intercept equal 0.00783. The results are used in the program to calculate (Rav).

The solution 2as oil ratio and avera2e 2as oil ratio

Fig. (2) shows the relation between solution gas oil ratio (Rs) and the average gas oil ratio
Ravcalculated against reservoir pressure. The Ravis increasing to a maximum value of
about 3656 SCF/STB at reservoir pressure 3352 psia.

The Oil and Gas Recoverv

The amount of hydrocarbon can be recovered at any forecasting reservoir pressure and
can be easily calculated as shown in Fig. (3). The total amount of oil and gas (Np and Gp)
recovered will increase with the decreasing reservoir pressure. From our program we can
know the amount of oil and gas production in the future. So the design of surface
facilities to handle the productions becomes more suitable and economical. Also may be
the reservoir needs an artificial lift or second recovery by water flooding or gas injection,
to keep the reservoir pressure constant, or to compensate the pressure drop due to
production.
Inflow Performance Relationship (lPR)
The IPR describes the two phase flow in porous medium by using Vogel equation at any
average reservoir pressure. The IPR is established by plotting the gross flow rate at
different values of bottom hole flowing pressure. All IPR curves are parallel to each
other. The well potential decreases with the decrease in reservoir pressure. The intercept
IPR curves with y-axis gave the average reservoir pressure. The results are shown in Fig.
~ .

Forecastin2 Production Rate

The minimum bottom hole flowing pressure is enough to lift the hydrocarbon from the
bottom of the well to the surface facilities (flow line and separators). AT this minimum
bottom hole flowing pressure we can draw a horizontal line parallel to x-axis. This line
will cross the different IPR's then go down to x-axis and find the value of gross flow rate.

(360)
y . .,. (.:tr).;!pI \ '\- \,. <4J.r.IIJ 4~1 L...I:AI
~ ..,...~I <,?
).rJ1 <,?
~\ .} j11
After the forecasting of the gross flow rate becomes known, and water cut is available,
then the forecasting oil flow rate becomes known. See Fig. (4).
Forecastin!! oroduction and recoverv at any future reservoir time
The time required (~T) for the increment oil recovery (~p) during the first pressure drop
interval from 4350 to 4150 is equal to (10 day).Repeat the above steps and calculate the
total time(t)to reach an average reservoir pressure equal to 3352 psia, we found that it is
equal to (335.23 day), see fig. (5).
Conclusions
I-We designed a spreadsheet computer program to calculate the forecasting oil
production by Tracy method.
2- Our program can work easily, fast, and accurately.
3- Our program can easily respond to the changes in all data as in appendices (A, B,
andC), like the relative permeability data, formation volume factors for oil and gas,
solution gas, and reservoir properties, for producing tables and charts, which can be used
to forecast oil production for any data to depletion drive reservoir by Tracy method.
4- Combination between material balance equation (Tracy method) and the two phase
flow through porous medium (Vogel equation), we can easily to find the right
forecasting oil production rate.

References:
1 - Kenneth W., Saad A. Turaiki, and Abraham S. AI-Mishari :(A Computer Model for
Production Forecasting of Oil and Gas) SPE paper 12230.
2 - Chester R. :(Forecasting Ultimate Oil Recovery) SPE paper 4261.
Techniques to Decline Analysis and Forecasting of Gas Wells) SPE paper 16936.
3 - Herman Dykstra: (The prediction of Oil Recovery by Gravity Drainage) SPE
paper 6548.
4 - Kabir,C.S., Ainley, C.M., and Brown, DR :(An Analytic Simulator for Rapid
Forecasting Rate Behavior of Oil Wells) SPE Paper 36725.
5 - David A. Payne: (Material-Balance Calculations in Tight-Gas Reservoirs: The Pitfalls
of P/zPlots and a More Accurate Technique) SPE Paper 38702.
6 - Lange, E.A. :(Correlation and Prediction of Residual Oil Saturation for Gas-Injected-
Enhanced Oil-Recovery Processes) SPE paper 35425.
7- Tarek Ahmed :(Reservoir Engineering Handbook) Gulf Publishing Company,
Houston, Texas, 2000
8 - MJ. Economides,A. D. Hill, and C.E.-Economides:(petroleum Production System),
1994.

Appendix (A)

PVT Data

P, psia 60, BBUSTB 6e. BBUSCF Rs, SCF/STB

4350 1.43 0.00069 840
4150 1.42 0.00071 820
3950 1.395 0.00074 770

(361)
T. .,. (,j!.r-J./.P! "-,,. '4h.r.lIJ",~I 4..~\ ~ ..,...~\'iJrI' roll .}j1\
 3750 1.38 0.00078 730
3550 1.36 0.00081 680
3352 1.345 0.00085 640

Appendix (B)
Relative permeability Data

s?; KIK,
0.1 19000
0.15 340.1
0.20 50.71
0.25 13.0245
0.30 4.2507
0.35 1.5665
0.40 0.6104
0.45 0.2406
0.50 0.0928
0.55 0.0333
0.60 0.0105
0.65 0.00266
0.70 0.000428
0.75 0.00002224
0.80 0

Appendix (C)
Reservoir Data

K.,md 13
h,ft 115
R.,ft 1490
R,.,ft 0.328
o, cp 1.7
N,STB 4 *10"
Skin, (S) 0

(362)
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Gas Saturation

Fig.(1) SemiLog Plot of Gas_Oil Relative Permeability Ratio vs. Gas Saturation
 4000 ---.._-

-II- Rav --+- Rso a,

3500 ''1-,

~
3000 1-...,
'1'
to ~
l-
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,---,-
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4600 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 300JI S--
.
Reservoir Pressure, psi
>-

Fig. (2) Produced and Solution Gas Oil Ratios vs. Pressure
 0.04 .._------- ----.------- 80
-.- Np
~
-GP "1.,
0.03
70
1
60 1
0.03 u.. ~,
U
VI
....... *
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Z ~._- -.- -.----- -,.-- --------- ~ '-:I'
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Reservoir Pressure, psi

Fig. (3) Oil and Gas Recovery vs. Reservoir Pressure

 5000 --.---.--
-+- 4350

4500

4000
' .-
.-..-----.

..._---_.
-8-4150

-
-6- 3950
3750
,
.;::;,
''1.,

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-e- 3352 ~
l 3500 ...-.--
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2500 un._..
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t:
~ 1500 ..I

~--.:,
1000
:f,
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500 ~
.
...
0'-
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Flow Rate (q), bbl/day

Fig. (4) The Relation Between Flow Rate and Bottom Hole Flowing Pressure for
different forecasting Pressures
 -.. ..---.----. 0.09
1400 -a,
''1,
-c-0.08 1,
----- -- ...n-.----... -------- ':'j'
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0
Ir. 400
- --- -..-----.. u ~: 0.03 !
0 -
~'
I
(5 0.02 1 ==

~..-
,
200

0
.~~--~-- 1: ..~- -- J Np!N
--1- 0
0.01
ff
~
S-
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 >-
0
Farecasting Time, day

Fig. (5) The Oil Recovery Factor and Oil Production Rate vs. Forecasting Time