The Tenth East Asia Pacific Conference

on Structural Engineering and

Construction
Bangkok, Thailand
3 5 August 2006

Applicability of Risk Management

Techniques to Emergency Management

George Jergeas PhD, PEng

University of Calgary
Schulich School of Engineering
Civil Engineering
 Agenda

Objectives
Emergency
Emergency management
Approach and Analysis
PM approach
Summary and findings
 Objectives

To develop an understanding of how an

emergency parallels a non-emergency project

Determine what aspects of PM could be more

strongly incorporated to an emergency
situation

To develop an understanding of how risk

management pertains to emergency response
organizations
 Emergency
Any unplanned event that can cause deaths or
significant injuries to the public at large. (FEMA2003)
A situation that puts the lives and property at significant risk.
Can shut down business, disrupt operations, cause physical or
environmental damage, or threaten an organizations financial
standing or public image.
Fire, flood, hurricane, tornado, earthquake, communications
or power failure, civil disturbance, terrorism, explosions or
wars.
Necessitate a coordinated response by multiple public
authorities in order to preserve lives and reduce public
and private property losses.
 Emergency Management
Efforts undertaken by public or private organization to deal with an
emergency situation.

1. Emergency Preparation
All steps taken to prepare for eventual materialization of emergency
situations.
Preparedness and emergency planning, coordination and communications,
contingency planning, public information and media relations.

2. Emergency Response
All activities taken to immediately secure lives and property when an
emergency situation materializes.
Time is the most valuable and limited resource

3. Emergency Recovery
All activities taken (cleanup, reconstruction, counseling, etc.) in order to
return to a state of normalcy after the emergency has occurred.
 Approach and Analysis

Review of PM and emergency literature

Survey of practitioners in the area of

emergency
City of Kelowna
Nova Scotia Emergency Measures Organization
Alberta Municipal Affairs Disaster Services
West Jet
Elk Vally Coal
 PMI Project Management Knowledge
Areas
1. Integration Management
2. Scope Management
3. Time Management
4. Cost Management
5. Quality Management
6. Human Resource Management
7. Communication Management
8. Risk Management
9. Procurement Management
 Risk Management

1. Identify the Risks

2. Assess the Risks

3. Prioritize the Risks

4. Develop Appropriate Risk Responses

5. Monitor & Control Risks

 1. Identify the Risks
External risks are risks whose occurrence the project
team cannot control.
Acts of God risks such as hurricanes, earthquakes, or floods

Internal risks are risks whose occurrence the project

team can control.
An ineffective subcontractor due to a flawed selection process
 2. Assess the Risks
To accurately assess a risk, you need to identify three
components of the risk:

the impact on the project (i.e., what business or

project objectives will be jeopardized?),
for example - a cost overrun

the likelihood or probability that the risk will occur,

for example a HIGH likelihood or an 80% probability
of overrunning

the root cause of the risk,

for example having no cost control procedures
 2. Assess the Risks
The Risk Identification Table is a useful tool for making a qualitative
assessment of those risks identified on a project.

Description of Risk Likelihood of Potential

(project objective that is Occurrence Impact
jeopardized and root cause) (High,Med,Low) (H,M,L)
1. Cost overrun because of
design changes during H H
execution
2. Schedule delay waiting for
material to be shipped from L H
fabricator
3. Schedule delay waiting for
critical welders to become M H
available
 3. Prioritize the Risks
The Risk Response Table helps to prioritize risks as to which require
the development of risk responses.

Must
High Perhaps Respond Respond!
Impact on Project

Respond

Med Perhaps Probably Respond

Respond Respond

Probably Perhaps Perhaps

Low Accept Respond Respond

Low Med High

Likelihood of Occurrence
 4. Develop Risk Responses
Avoidance: try a different approach
Transference: share risk and liability with
insurers, partners, contractors, suppliers, etc.
Mitigation: reduce the probability of
occurrence and/or the impact on the project
Acceptance: project budget contingency can
cover small risks. Larger risks might call for a
specific Contingency Plan
 5. Monitor & Control Risks

Apply risk responses as needed

Are they effective?
Is follow-up action required?

Watch for new or emerging risks

Has a risk trigger occurred?
Do you need a new response plan?
 Summery and Findings
Emergency response resembles a project- particularly in its handling of
integration, human resources and communication management.
Emergency response projects are divided into
Emergency preparation, Emergency response and Emergency recovery
Emergency response deviates from the conventional project characteristics in two
major ways.
First, the unknown element of an emergency makes it impossible to develop a highly
detailed plan
The uncertainty of their arrival
The magnitude of their impact

Second, the urgency associated with an emergency response means that cost and quality
management cannot be given the same focus as in a typical conventional project.

Less attention to quantitative techniques for risk assessment.

Emergency response is an Extreme Project

Flexibility to respond in an effective, coordinated way
Bias towards time and away from quality and cost
Emergency Recovery is a traditional Project
Can benefit most from the lessons and formal application of project management
techniques.
 Recommendations
Several preliminary recommendations regarding risk management:

Training is highly valued component of emergency management.

Risk is mitigated via training of personnel and regular maintenance of
emergency response equipment.
Efforts should be directed at conducting integrated training sessions
to ensure optimum team building and interface management occur
During the response phase, there is little time to perform a full
scale risk analysis, but the most prevalent risks are addressed as
they are presented.
More formal assessments of the project risk can be made in the
recovery phase of the project.

Closure of an emergency project should include a complete

debrief, with input from all stakeholders.
The data collected may be used to form a better emergency model or
enhance an existing one.
 Acknowledgement

My students effort in ENCI/SGMA 691 team

assignment is acknowledged:
Jason Chew,
Lisa Hugo,
Chris Langmead,
Jeremy Link,
Michael Pablo, and
Robert Power