PENGAMBILAN

KEPUTUSAN DALAM
KEHUTANAN

Oleh:
Hari Kaskoyo, Ph.D
Magister Ilmu Kehutanan
Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Lampung
 Pendahuluan
Pengambilan Keputusan: everyday,
everytime maybe everywhere.

menikah or Beli buku or

bekerja ??? nonton ???

belajar or
Tanam jati or pacaran ???
jabon ??? Investasi or
menabung
???
 Why is decision making hard

Complexity Selanjutnya:
Uncertainty Bagaimana
Multiple seharusnya TEORI
objectives sebuah PENGAMBILAN
Different keputusan KEPUTUSAN
perspectives diambil menjadi
faktor penting
 Pengambilan Keputusan
Keputusan : memilih dari setidaknya dua
alternatif yg berbeda.
Decision making can be considered from
at least two points of view:
it can be analyzed, how the decisions should
be made in order to obtain best results
(prescriptive approach), or,
it can be analyzed, how people actually do
decisions without help (descriptive approach)
(e.g. von Winterfeldt and Edwards 1986).
Decision Making : Scientific and Art
Pengambilan keputusan sbg Ilmu
(Scientific):
Aktivitas pengambilan keputusan
dilakukan dengan pendekatan sistematis,
teratur dan terarah.
Pendekatan ilmiah dengan menggunakan
teknik-teknik pengambilan keputusan atas
dasar perhitungan matematis dan statistik.
Kajian pengambilan keputusan dapat
dipelajari.
Decision Making : Scientific and Art
Pengambilan keputusan sbg Seni (Art):
Aktivitas pengambilan keputusan selalu
dihadapkan pada karakteristik yg unik dr faktor
internal dan eksternal, diantaranya:
Internal: struktur institusi/org, budaya.
Eksternal: masyarakat, kondisi ekonomi
daerah/negara, sosial politik.
Karakteristik decision maker: personality, kecerdasan,
pengalaman, preferensi thd masalah, feeling/intuisi.
Kajian pengambilan keputusan tidak dapat
dipelajari.
Teori Pengambilan Keputusan :
Definisi
Ilmu dan Seni pemilihan alternatif solusi
atau alternatif tindakan dari sejumlah
alternatif solusi dan tindakan guna
menyelesaikan masalah
Teori Pengambilan Keputusan :
Fungsi
Pemahaman secara komprehensif
terhadap masalah, pemberian kerangka
berfikir secara sistematis, membimbing
dalam penerapan teknik-teknik
pengambilan keputusan dan
meningkatkan kualitas keputusan.
 Komponen pengambilan
keputusan
Tujuan-tujuan (objectives).
Keterbatasan/kelangkaan (scarcity).
Ketidak pastian (uncertainty).
Alternatif2 pilihan (a list of alternatives).
Nilai manfaat (benefit) dari setiap pilihan.
Trade off dari setiap pilihan.
Model pengambilan keputusan
Insentif-insentif yang mendasari
pengambilan keputusan
Menurut Lubis (1996) ada 4 insentif, yaitu:
Insentif Ekonomis, meliputi variabel2 ekonomi:
fluktuasi harga, akses pasar, modal (material,
tenaga kerja, waktu), keb ekonomi rumah tangga.
Insentif Ekologis, meliputi: porositas tanah, topografi
lahan, perilaku tanaman.
Insentif Sosial, meliputi: status sosial dan
hubungan-hubungan sosial.
Insentif Kultural, meliputi: pengetahuan,
kepercayaan, dan nilai-nilai terkait dlm pengelolaan
lahan hutan.
 Model-model dalam
pengambilan keputusan
Models are abstract representations of the
real world that are useful for purposes of
thinking, forecasting, and decision making.
Models may be very informal, mostly
intuitive, and supported by experience and
information that is not put together in any
systematic manner.
 Contoh-contoh model dlm
kehutanan
Peta
Persamaan volume tegakan
Persamaan pertumbuhan
Dll
 Kondisi dan metode
pengambilan keputusan
Kondisi pasti: teknik program linear, metode
simpleks, analisa jaringan kerja (CPM/PERT).
Kondisi beresiko: nilai harapan (expected value),
nilai kesempatan yg hilang (opportunity loss
value), nilai harapan informasi sempurna
(expected value of perfect information).
Kondisi tidak pasti: kriteria maximax, kriteria
maximin, kriteria laplace, kriteria regret, teorema
bayes, kriteria realism, decision tree.
Kondisi konflik: teori permainan.
 Pengambilan keputusan dalam
kondisi pasti
Program Linear: can be defined as a
method to allocate limited resources (land,
people, trees, time, or money) to
competing activities in an optimal manner.
 Contoh 1
About 40 ha of the land he owns are covered
with red pine plantations. The other 50 ha
contain mixed northern hardwoods. Having kept
a very good record of his time, he figures that
since he bought these woods he has spent
approximately 800 days managing the red pine
and 1500 days on the hardwoods. The total
revenue from his forest during the same period
was $36,000 from the red pine land and $60,000
from the northern hardwoods.
 Formulasi masalah 1
Tujuan:
o Maximize Z = $ of revenues per year
Decision variables are:
o X1 = the number of hectares of red pine to
manage
o X2 = the number of hectares of northern
hardwoods to manage
 Formulasi masalah 1
Fungsi tujuan : Max Z = 90 X1 + 120 X2
($/y) ($/ha/y)(ha) ($/ha/y)(ha)

Kendala lahan :
o X1 40 ha of red pine
o X2 50 ha of northern hardwoods
Kendala waktu :
o 2 X1 + 3 X2 180
(d/ha/y)(ha) (d/ha/y)(ha) (d/y)
Kendala non negatif :
o X1 0 dan X2 0
 Formulasi masalah 1
Max Z = 90X1 + 120X2
Subject to :
o X1 40
o X2 50
o 2X1 + 3X2 180
o X1, X2 0
 Penggunaan dengan Microsoft
Excel 2010
Buka aplikasi Microsoft Excel, kemudian
klik File, klik Option.
Pada Excel Option, klik Add-Ins, pilih
Solver Add-Ins, klik Go
Pada Add-Ins, centang Analysis ToolPak,
ToolPak-VBA dan Solver Add-In, klik Ok.
Solver siap digunakan
Masalah 1
Masalah 1
Masalah 1
Masalah 1
 Contoh 2
This story deals with a pulp mill operating in a small town
in Maine. The pulp mill makes mechanical and chemical
pulp. Unfortunately, it also pollutes the river in which it
spills its spent waters. This has created enough turmoil
to change the management of the mill completely.
 Contoh 2
The previous owners felt that it would be too costly to
reduce the pollution problem. They decided to sell. The
mill has been bought back by the employees and local
businesses, who now own the mill as a cooperative. The
new owners have several objectives. One is to keep at
least 300 people employed at the mill. Another is to
generate at least $40,000 of revenue per day. They
estimate that this will be enough to pay operating
expenses and yield a return that will keep the mill
competitive in the long run. Within these limits,
everything possible should be done to minimize
pollution.
 Contoh 2
A bright forester who has already provided shrewd
solutions to complex wood procurement problems is
asked to suggest an operating strategy for the mill that
will meet all these objectives simultaneously and in the
best possible way. She feels that it could be done by
linear programming. Towards this end, she has put
together the following data:
 Contoh 2
Both chemical and mechanical pulp require the labor of
one worker for about 1 day, or 1 workday (wd), per ton
produced.
The chemical pulp sells at some $200 per ton, the
mechanical pulp at $100.
Pollution is measured by the biological oxygen demand
(BOD). One ton of mechanical pulp produces 1 unit of
BOD, 1 ton of chemical pulp produces 1.5 units.
The maximum capacity of the mill to make mechanical
pulp is 300 tons per day; for chemical pulp it is 200 tons
per day. The two manufacturing processes are
independent; that is, the mechanical pulp line cannot be
used to make chemical pulp, and vice versa.
 Contoh 2
Given this, our forester has found that the management
objectives and the technical and financial data could be
put together into a linear program. Next we show how
she did it.
 Formulasi Masalah 2
???
 Bab 4
CONVERTING SOUTHERN HARDWOODS TO PINE
In this example we shall study a linear programming model, originally
proposed by Curtis (1962), to manage the very simple forest
represented in Figure 4.1(a). There are only two compartments on this
forest, labeled 1 and 2. Compartment 1 has an area of 120 ha,
compartment 2 has 180 ha. Southern hardwoods of low quality
currently cover the two compartments. However, they are on distinct
soils, and timber grows better in compartment 1 than in compartment 2.
One objective of the owner of this property is to convert the entire area
to a pine plantation during a period of 15 years. The forest created at
the end of this period should be regulated, with a rotation age of 15
years. That is to say, one-third of the forest should be covered with
trees 05 years old, a third with trees 610 years old, and another third
with trees 1115 years old. This would lead to a pattern of age classes
like that shown in Figure 4.1(b). Note, however, that the age classes do
not have to be contiguous.
 Bab 4

Kompartemen 1
100 ha
120 ha
pine
hardwood

100 ha
Kompartemen 2 pine
100 ha
180 ha
pine
hardwood
 Bab 4
Luas kompartemen atau lahan dan hasil
penebangan (dlm tons) per periode.
 Bab 4
Variabel keputusan : Xij
Di mana : i adalah kompartemen/lahan
j adalah periode penanaman
Kendala :
X11 + X12 + X13 = 120
X21 + X22 + X23 = 180
X11 + X21 = 100
X12 + X22 = 100
X13 + X23 = 100
 Bab 4
Fungsi tujuan :
Max Z = 16X11 + 23X12 + 33X13 + 24X21 +
32X22 + 45X23
Bab 4
Bab 4
Bab 4
Bab 4
 Contoh Masalah 3
Amir mempunyai industri kecil meubel yang
memproduksi 2 jenis produk kerajinan berupa
patung dan gantungan kunci. Amir mempergunakan
bahan baku berupa kayu kayu papan dari jati dan
kayu papan campuran yang masing-masing tersedia
sebanyak 8 dan 5 satuan.
Untuk membuat sebuah patung memerlukan bahan
kayu jati dan campuran masing-masing sebanyak 2
dan 1 unit, sedangkan untuk membuat sebuah
gantungan kunci diperlukan kayu jati dan kayu
campuran masing-masing sebanyak 3 dan 2 unit.
 Contoh Masalah 3
Jika harga sebuah patung dan gantungan kunci
masing-masing seharga Rp 15.000,- dan Rp
10.000,-, berapakah patung dan gantungan kunci
tersebut harus diproduksi agar keuntungannya
maksimum?
Tuliskan modelnya!
 Contoh Masalah 4
Pimpinan perusahaan kayu memutuskan untuk
memproduksi kursi biasa, kursi eksekutif dan meja
eksekutif. Untuk hal tersebut diperlukan bahan
mentah (m3), waktu mesin dalam memproses (jam)
dan waktu tenaga kerja (jam) serta masing-masing
tersedia sebanyak 300 m3, 120 jam mesin dan 90
jam tenaga kerja.
Untuk membuat masing-masing sebuah kursi biasa,
kursi eksekutif dan meja eksekutif diperlukan bahan
mentah, waktu mesin dan waktu tenaga kerja
seperti tercantum pada tabel berikut ini:
 Contoh Masalah 4
Produk Bahan mentah Waktu mesin Tenaga kerja
(m3) (jam) (jam)
Kursi biasa 10 3 2
Kursi eksekutif 12 5 4
Meja eksekutif 20 6 5

Bila harga kursi biasa, kursi eksekutif dan meja

eksekutif masing-masing adalah Rp 120 rb, Rp
140 rb dan Rp 200 rb maka berapakah produksi
masing-masing produk tersebut agar
keuntungannya maksimal?
 Tugas Presentasi
Kelompok 1 Bab 10
Kelompok 2 Bab 11
Kelompok 3 bab 12
Kelompok 4 bab 13
Kelompok 5 bab 5
Kelompok 6 bab 6