APPENDICES

Appendix 1
Single Exponential Smoothing
0.2 0.6 Batu gerinda B
Perio Dema F, e, e, MAD, MAD, MSE, MSE, MAPE, MAPE,
F, 0.2
d nd 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6
112 112
- -
1 0 90
45 112 112 112 112 12544 12544 0 0
2 0 72 18 -72 -18 72 18 5138 321 0 0
3 140 85 91 55 49 55 49 2987 2385 39 35
4 105 89 99 16 6 16 6 247 31 15 5
5 130 97 118 33 12 33 12 1061 149 25 9
6 150 108 137 42 13 42 13 1769 166 28 9
7 153 117 147 36 6 36 6 1300 40 24 4
8 147 123 147 24 0 24 0 578 0 16 0
9 0 98 59 -98 -59 98 59 9676 3451 0 0
10 102 99 85 3 17 3 17 8 299 3 17
11 120 103 106 17 14 17 14 280 199 14 12
12 294 141 219 153 75 153 75 23281 5662 52 26
Average 55 32 4906 2104 18 10

56
 Batu gerinda B
400 Demand
Ft (0.2)
200
Amount Ft (0.6)
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

0.2 0.6 Batu gerinda C

Perio Dema F, e, e, MAD, MAD, MSE, MSE, MAPE, MAPE,
F, 0.2
d nd 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6
125 125
- -
1 0 100
50 125 125 125 125 15625 15625 0 0
2 150 110 110 40 40 40 40 1600 1600 27 27
3 60 100 80 -40 -20 40 20 1600 400 67 33
4 140 108 116 32 24 32 24 1024 576 23 17
5 190 124 160 66 30 66 30 4303 876 35 16
6 150 130 154 20 -4 20 4 419 17 14 3
7 110 126 128 -16 -18 16 18 244 312 14 16
8 160 132 147 28 13 28 13 757 167 17 8
-
9 0 106
59 106 -59 106 59 11235 3461 0 0
10 120 109 96 11 24 11 24 126 599 9 20
11 180 123 146 57 34 57 34 3245 1142 32 19
12 240 146 202 94 38 94 38 8756 1407 39 16
Average 53 36 4078 2182 23 15

57
 Batu gerinda c
300
Demand
200 Ft (0.2)
Amount 100 Ft (0.6)
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

0.2 0.6 Bearing, Ball

Perio Dema F, e, e, MAD, MAD, MSE, MSE, MAPE, MAPE,
F, 0.2
d nd 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6
178 178
1 160 174 167 -18 -18 18 18 324 324 11 11
2 120 164 139 -44 -19 44 19 1894 356 36 16
-
3 0 131
56 131 -56 131 56 17113 3086 0 0
4 110 127 88 -17 22 17 22 277 474 15 20
5 330 167 233 163 97 163 97 26464 9353 49 29
6 450 224 363 226 87 226 87 51140 7514 50 19
- -
7 58 191
180 133 122 133 122 17606 14915 229 211
8 290 211 246 79 44 79 44 6312 1932 27 15
-
9 0 168
98 168 -98 168 98 28372 9687 0 0
10 200 175 159 25 41 25 41 637 1651 13 20

58
 11 280 196 232 84 48 84 48 7089 2328 30 17
12 140 185 177 -45 -37 45 37 1993 1347 32 26
Average 94 57 13269 4414 41 32

Bearing, Ball
600
Demand
400 Ft (0.2)
Amount 200 Ft (0.6)
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

0.2 0.6 Conveyor A

Perio Dema F, e, e, MAD, MAD, MSE, MSE, MAPE, MAPE,
F, 0.2
d nd 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6
76 76
1 0 61 30 -76 -76 76 76 5776 5776 0 0
2 50 59 42 -9 8 9 8 75 61 17 16
3 90 65 71 25 19 25 19 629 366 28 21
4 0 52 28 -52 -28 52 28 2697 803 0 0
5 66 55 51 11 15 11 15 127 227 17 23
6 95 63 77 32 18 32 18 1037 311 34 19
7 140 78 115 62 25 62 25 3815 627 44 18
8 110 85 112 25 -2 25 2 646 4 23 2
9 135 95 126 40 9 40 9 1626 85 30 7

59
 10 0 76 50 -76 -50 76 50 5736 2532 0 0
11 0 61 20 -61 -20 61 20 3671 405 0 0
12 220 92 140 128 80 128 80 16264 6392 58 36
Average 50 29 3508 1466 21 12

Conveyor A
300 Demand
200 Ft (0.2)
Amount 100 Ft (0.6)
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

0.2 0.6 Conveyor B

Perio Dema F, e, e, MAD, MAD, MSE, MSE, MAPE, MAPE,
F, 0.2
d nd 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6
25 25
1 0 20 10 -25 -25 25 25 625 625 0 0
2 0 16 4 -16 -4 16 4 256 16 0 0
3 30 19 20 11 10 11 10 125 108 37 35
4 40 23 32 17 8 17 8 288 67 42 20
5 25 23 28 2 -3 2 3 2 7 6 11
6 15 22 20 -7 -5 7 5 46 26 45 34
7 14 20 16 -6 -2 6 2 38 6 44 17
8 18 20 17 -2 1 2 1 3 0 10 3

60
 9 13 18 15 -5 -2 5 2 29 3 42 13
10 0 15 6 -15 -6 15 6 217 35 0 0
11 0 12 2 -12 -2 12 2 139 6 0 0
12 145 38 88 107 57 107 57 11358 3255 74 39
Average 19 10 1094 346 25 14

Conveyor B
200 Demand
Ft (0.2)
100
Amount Ft (0.6)
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

0.2 0.6 Pressure indicator A

Perio Dema F, e, e, MAD, MAD, MSE, MSE, MAPE, MAPE,
F, 0.2
d nd 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6
3 3
1 0 2 1 -3 -3 3 3 9 9 0 0
2 0 2 0 -2 0 2 0 4 0 0 0
3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 29 34
4 7 3 5 4 2 4 2 15 4 56 29
5 1 3 3 -2 -2 2 2 3 3 169 160
6 2 3 2 -1 0 1 0 0 0 27 12

61
 7 0 2 1 -2 -1 2 1 4 1 0 0
8 0 2 0 -2 0 2 0 3 0 0 0
9 10 3 6 7 4 7 4 45 15 67 39
10 0 3 2 -3 -2 3 2 7 6 0 0
11 0 2 1 -2 -1 2 1 4 1 0 0
12 12 4 8 8 4 8 4 63 19 66 37
Average 3 2 13 5 34 26

Pressure indicatoe A
15
Demand
10 Ft (0.2)
Amount 5 Ft (0.6)

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

0.2 0.6 Pressure indicator B

Perio Dema F, e, e, MAD, MAD, MSE, MSE, MAPE, MAPE,
F, 0.2
d nd 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6
2 2
1 0 2 1 -2 -2 2 2 4 4 0 0
2 5 2 3 3 2 3 2 7 3 54 34
3 0 2 1 -2 -1 2 1 3 2 0 0
4 1 2 1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 66 13
5 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0

62
 6 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 22
7 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
8 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
9 6 2 4 4 2 4 2 17 6 69 39
10 0 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 2 2 0 0
11 0 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 0 0 0
12 8 3 5 5 3 5 3 30 9 68 37
Average 2 1 6 2 24 12

Pressure indicator B
10 Demand
Ft (0.2)
5
Amount Ft (0.6)
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

0.2 0.6 Valve, Powered

Perio Dema F, e, e, MAD, MAD, MSE, MSE, MAPE, MAPE,
F, 0.2
d nd 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6
2 2
1 0 2 1 -2 -2 2 2 4 4 0 0
2 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0
3 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0

63
 4 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
5 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
6 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 73 40
Average 1 0 1 0 6 3

Valve, Powered
2.5
2 Demand
1.5 Ft (0.2)
Amount 1 Ft (0.6)
0.5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

0.2 0.6 V-belt

Perio Dema F, e, e, MAD, MAD, MSE, MSE, MAPE, MAPE,
F, 0.2
d nd 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6
2 2
1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

64
 2 0 2 1 -2 -1 2 1 3 1 0 0
3 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0
4 6 2 4 4 2 4 2 14 5 63 38
5 0 2 1 -2 -1 2 1 3 2 0 0
6 0 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 2 0 0 0
7 4 2 3 2 1 2 1 4 2 52 34
8 0 2 1 -2 -1 2 1 2 1 0 0
9 7 3 5 4 2 4 2 19 6 62 34
10 0 2 2 -2 -2 2 2 4 3 0 0
11 0 2 1 -2 -1 2 1 3 1 0 0
12 5 2 3 3 2 3 2 7 3 53 34
Average 2 1 5 2 19 12

V-belt
15
10 Demand

Amount Ft (0.2)
5
Ft (0.6)
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Appendix 2
Crostons Method
Period Demand Gt Zt () Pt Ft e, 0.2 MAD, MSE, MAPE,
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

65
 0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 1 0.00 0.20 0 0 0 0 0
3 140 1 28.00 0.36 0 140 140 19600 100
4 105 1 43.40 0.49 78 27 27 741 26
5 130 1 60.72 0.59 89 41 41 1686 32
6 150 1 78.58 0.67 103 47 47 2224 31
7 153 1 93.46 0.74 117 36 36 1305 24
8 147 1 104.17 0.79 127 20 20 413 14
9 0 2 83.33 1.03 132 -132 132 17374 0
10 102 1 87.07 1.03 81 21 21 452 21
11 120 1 93.65 1.02 85 35 35 1233 29
12 294 1 133.72 1.02 92 202 202 40900 69
Average 36.56 58.53 7160.83 28.78

Batu gerinda B
400
300 Demand
200 Ft
Amount
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Period Demand Gt Zt () Pt Ft e, 0.2 MAD, MSE, MAPE,

(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

66
 0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 150 1 30.00 0.20 0 150 150 22500 100
3 60 1 36.00 0.36 150 -90 90 8100 150
4 140 1 56.80 0.49 100 40 40 1600 29
5 190 1 83.44 0.59 116 74 74 5418 39
6 150 1 96.75 0.67 141 9 9 75 6
7 110 1 99.40 0.74 144 -34 34 1150 31
8 160 1 111.52 0.79 135 25 25 639 16
9 0 2 89.22 1.03 141 -141 141 19914 0
10 120 1 95.37 1.03 86 34 34 1127 28
11 180 1 112.30 1.02 93 87 87 7573 48
12 240 1 137.84 1.02 110 130 130 16892 54
Average 23.59 67.76 7082.33 41.68

Bearing, ball
300

200 Demand

Amount Ft
100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Period Demand Gt Zt () Pt Ft e, 0.2 MAD, MSE, MAPE,

67
 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 160 1 32 0.20 160 0 0 0 0
2 120 1 49.60 0.36 160 -40 40 1600 33
3 0 2 39.68 0.69 138 -138 138 18983 0
4 110 1 53.74 0.75 58 52 52 2738 48
5 330 1 109.00 0.80 72 258 258 66760 78
6 450 1 177.20 0.84 136 314 314 98477 70
7 58 1 153.36 0.87 211 -153 153 23373 264
8 290 1 180.69 0.90 176 114 114 13036 39
9 0 2 144.55 1.12 201 -201 201 40506 0
10 200 1 155.64 1.09 129 71 71 5003 35
11 280 1 180.51 1.08 142 138 138 18991 49
12 140 1 172.41 1.06 168 -28 28 774 20
24186.7
Average 32.29 125.58 3 53.03

Conveyor A
600
400 Demand

Amount 200 Ft

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

68
 Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 50 1 10.00 0.20 0 50 50 2500 100
3 90 1 26.00 0.36 50 40 40 1600 44
72.2222
0 2
4 20.80 0.69 2 -72 72 5216 0
30.2325
66 1
5 29.84 0.75 6 36 36 1279 54
39.7654
95 1
6 42.87 0.80 6 55 55 3051 58
53.5685
140 1
7 62.30 0.84 7 86 86 7470 62
74.1412
110 1
8 71.84 0.87 1 36 36 1286 33
82.3637
135 1
9 84.47 0.90 8 53 53 2771 39
94.0898
0 2
10 67.58 1.12 5 -94 94 8853 0
60.4325
0 3
11 54.06 1.49 7 -60 60 3652 0
12 220 1 87.25 1.40 36.1717 184 184 33793 84
Average 26.08 63.88 5955.91 39.47

69
 Conveyor B
300
200 Demand

Amount 100 Ft

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 1 0.00 0.20 0 0 0 0 0
3 30 1 6.00 0.36 0 30 30 900 100
4 40 1 12.80 0.49 17 23 23 544 58
5 25 1 15.24 0.59 26 -1 1 2 5
6 15 1 15.19 0.67 26 -11 11 117 72
7 14 1 14.95 0.74 23 -9 9 74 61
8 18 1 15.56 0.79 20 -2 2 5 13
9 13 1 15.05 0.83 20 -7 7 45 51
10 0 2 12.04 1.07 18 -18 18 327 0
11 0 3 9.63 1.45 11 -11 11 128 0
12 145 1 36.71 1.36 7 138 138 19146 95
Average 11.06 20.89 1773.95 38.02

70
 Pressure indicator A
200
150 Demand
100 Ft
Amount
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 1 0.00 0.20 0 0 0 0 0
3 3 1 0.60 0.36 0 3 3 9 100
4 7 1 1.88 0.49 2 5 5 28 76
5 1 1 1.70 0.59 4 -3 3 8 285
6 2 1 1.76 0.67 3 -1 1 1 44
7 0 2 1.41 0.94 3 -3 3 7 0
8 0 3 1.13 1.35 2 -2 2 2 0
9 10 1 2.90 1.28 1 9 9 84 92
10 0 2 2.32 1.42 2 -2 2 5 0
11 0 3 1.86 1.74 2 -2 2 3 0
12 12 1 3.89 1.59 1 11 11 120 91

71
 Average 1.39 3.35 22.23 57.37

Pressure indicator B
15
10 Demand

Amount Ft
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 5 1 1.00 0.20 0 5 5 25 100
3 0 2 0.80 0.56 5 -5 5 25 0
4 1 1 0.84 0.65 1 0 0 0 43
5 0 2 0.67 0.92 1 -1 1 2 0
6 1 1 0.74 0.93 1 0 0 0 27
7 0 2 0.59 1.15 1 -1 1 1 0
8 0 3 0.47 1.52 1 -1 1 0 0
9 6 1 1.58 1.41 0 6 6 32 95
10 0 2 1.26 1.53 1 -1 1 1 0

72
 11 0 3 1.01 1.83 1 -1 1 1 0
12 8 1 2.41 1.66 1 7 7 55 93
Average 0.70 2.36 11.88 29.80

Pressure indicator C
10
8
Demand
6
Amount 4 Ft
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 1 0.00 0.20 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 2 0.00 0.56 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 3 0.00 1.05 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 4 0.00 1.64 0 0 0 0 0
6 0 5 0.00 2.31 0 0 0 0 0
7 0 6 0.00 3.05 0 0 0 0 0
8 0 7 0.00 3.84 0 0 0 0 0
9 0 8 0.00 4.67 0 0 0 0 0

73
 10 0 9 0.00 5.54 0 0 0 0 0
11 0 10 0.00 6.43 0 0 0 0 0
12 2 1 0.40 5.34 0 2 2 4 100
Average 0.17 0.17 0.33 8.33

Valve, powered
3
Demand
2
Amount 1 Ft

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 2 1 0.4 0.20 0 2 2 4 100
2 0 2 0.32 0.56 2 -2 2 4 0
3 0 3 0.26 1.05 1 -1 1 0 0
4 6 1 1.40 1.04 0 6 6 33 96
5 0 2 1.12 1.23 1 -1 1 2 0
6 0 3 0.90 1.58 1 -1 1 1 0
7 4 1 1.52 1.47 1 3 3 12 86
8 0 2 1.22 1.57 1 -1 1 1 0

74
 9 7 1 2.37 1.46 1 6 6 39 89
10 0 2 1.90 1.57 2 -2 2 3 0
11 0 3 1.52 1.85 1 -1 1 1 0
12 5 1 2.21 1.68 1 4 4 17 84
Average 1.07 2.53 9.78 37.86

V-belt
10
Demand
5 Ft
Amount
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Appendix 3
Syntetos-Boylon Approximation
Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Zt/Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 1 0 0.20 0 0 0 0 0 0
77.7777
140 1
3 28 0.36 8 0 140 140 19600 1
4 105 1 43.4 0.49 89 70 35 35 1225 0
5 130 1 60.72 0.59 103 80 50 50 2496 0

75
 6 150 1 78.576 0.67 117 93 57 57 3299 0
7 153 1 93.4608 0.74 127 105 48 48 2286 0
104.168
147 1
8 6 0.79 132 114 33 33 1089 0
83.3349
0 2
9 1 1.03 81 119 -119 119 14073 0
87.0679
102 1
10 3 1.03 85 73 29 29 861 0
93.6543
120 1
11 4 1.02 92 76 44 44 1902 0
133.723
294 1
12 5 1.02 132 83 211 211 44696 1
Average 44.08 63.85 7627.27 0.33

Batu gerinda B
400
Demand
200 Ft
Amount
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Zt/Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 150 1 30 0.20 150 0 150 150 22500 100

76
 3 60 1 36 0.36 100 135 -75 75 5625 125
4 140 1 56.8 0.49 116 90 50 50 2500 36
5 190 1 83.44 0.59 141 105 85 85 7267 45
6 150 1 96.752 0.67 144 127 23 23 520 0
7 110 1 99.4016 0.74 135 130 -20 20 381 0
8 160 1 111.5213 0.79 141 121 39 39 1502 24
89.2170
0 2
9 2 1.03 86 127 -127 127 16130 0
95.3736
120 1
10 2 1.03 93 78 42 42 1782 0
11 180 1 112.2989 1.02 110 84 96 96 9278 54
137.839
240 1
12 1 1.02 136 99 141 141 19874 59
Average 33.73 70.65 7279.82 36.84

Batu gerinda C
300
250
200 Demand
150 Ft
Amount
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Period Demand Gt Zt () Pt Zt/Pt Ft e, 0.2 MAD, MSE, MAPE,

77
 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 160 1 32 0.00 0 0 160 160 25600 0
2 120 1 49.6 0.20 248 0 120 120 14400 100
70.8571
0 2
3 39.68 0.56 4 223 -223 223 49818 0
4 110 1 53.744 0.65 83 64 46 46 2137 42
108.995
330 1
5 2 0.72 152 75 255 255 65206 77
177.196
450 1
6 2 0.77 229 137 313 313 98253 0
153.356
58 1
7 9 0.82 187 206 -148 148 21860 0
180.685
290 1
8 5 0.86 211 168 122 122 14795 42
144.548
0 2
9 4 1.08 133 190 -190 190 36105 0
155.638
200 1
10 7 1.07 146 120 80 80 6410 0
11 280 1 180.511 1.05 171 131 149 149 22144 53
172.408
140 1
12 8 1.04 165 154 -14 14 199 10
29743.9
Average 55.86 151.73 4 27.05

78
 Bearing, Ball
500
400
Demand
300
Amount 200 Ft
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Zt/Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 50 1 10 0.20 50 0 50 50 2500 100
72.2222
90 1
3 26 0.36 2 45 45 45 2025 50
4 0 2 20.8 0.69 30 65 -65 65 4225 0
5 66 1 29.84 0.75 40 27 39 39 1505 59
6 95 1 42.872 0.80 54 36 59 59 3506 0
7 140 1 62.2976 0.84 74 48 92 92 8425 0
71.8380
110 1
8 8 0.87 82 67 43 43 1873 39
84.4704
135 1
9 6 0.90 94 74 61 61 3705 45
67.5763
0 2
10 7 1.12 60 85 -85 85 7171 0
11 0 3 54.0611 1.49 36 54 -54 54 2958 0

79
 87.2488
220 1
12 8 1.40 63 33 187 187 35136 85
Average 31.03 65.04 6085.72 31.53

Conveyor A
250
200
Demand
150
Amount 100 Ft
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Zt/Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 1 0 0.20 0 0 0 0 0 0
16.6666
30 1
3 6 0.36 7 0 30 30 900 100
4 40 1 12.8 0.49 26 15 25 25 625 63
5 25 1 15.24 0.59 26 24 1 1 2 6
6 15 1 15.192 0.67 23 23 -8 8 68 0
7 14 1 14.9536 0.74 20 20 -6 6 40 0
15.5628
18 1
8 8 0.79 20 18 0 0 0 1

80
 9 13 1 15.0503 0.83 18 18 -5 5 22 36
12.0402
0 2
10 4 1.07 11 16 -16 16 265 0
9.63219
0 3
11 5 1.45 7 10 -10 10 103 0
36.7057
145 1
12 6 1.36 27 6 139 139 19330 96
Average 12.45 20.12 1779.62 25.14

Conveyor B
200
150 Demand
100 Ft
Amount
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Zt/Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 1 0 0.20 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.66666
3 1
3 0.6 0.36 7 0 3 3 9 100

81
 4 7 1 1.88 0.49 4 2 6 6 30 79
5 1 1 1.704 0.59 3 3 -2 2 6 247
6 2 1 1.7632 0.67 3 3 -1 1 0 0
7 0 2 1.41056 0.94 2 2 -2 2 6 0
1.12844
0 3
8 8 1.35 1 1 -1 1 2 0
2.90275
10 1
9 8 1.28 2 1 9 9 86 92
2.32220
0 2
10 7 1.42 2 2 -2 2 4 0
1.85776
0 3
11 5 1.74 1 1 -1 1 2 0
3.88621
12 1
12 2 1.59 2 1 11 11 122 92
Average 1.54 3.26 22.23 50.81

Pressure indicator A
15

10 Demand

Amount Ft
5

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Period Demand Gt Zt () Pt Zt/Pt Ft e, 0.2 MAD, MSE, MAPE,

82
 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 5 1 1 0.20 5 0 5 5 25 100
1.42857
0 2
3 0.8 0.56 1 5 -5 5 20 0
4 1 1 0.84 0.65 1 1 0 0 0 29
5 0 2 0.672 0.92 1 1 -1 1 1 0
6 1 1 0.7376 0.93 1 1 0 0 0 0
7 0 2 0.59008 1.15 1 1 -1 1 1 0
0.47206
0 3
8 4 1.52 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.57765
6 1
9 1 1.41 1 0 6 6 33 95
1.26212
0 2
10 1 1.53 1 1 -1 1 1 0
1.00969
0 3
11 7 1.83 1 1 -1 1 1 0
2.40775
8 1
12 7 1.66 1 0 8 8 56 94
Average 0.81 2.29 11.51 26.47

83
 Pressure indicator B
10
Demand
5 Ft
Amount

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Zt/Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 1 0 0.20 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 2 0 0.56 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 3 0 1.05 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 4 0 1.64 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 0 5 0 2.31 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 0 6 0 3.05 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 0 7 0 3.84 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 0 8 0 4.67 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 9 0 5.54 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 0 10 0 6.43 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 2 1 0.4 5.34 0 0 2 2 4 100
Average 0.17 0.17 0.33 8.33

84
 Valve, Powered
2.5
2
Demand
1.5
Amount Ft
1
0.5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
Period

Zt ()
Period Demand MAD, MSE, MAPE,
Gt 0.2 Pt Zt/Pt Ft e, 0.2
(t) (Xt) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1 2 1 0.4 0.00 0 2 2 4 0
2 0 2 0.32 0.40 0.8 0 0 0 0 0
0.27826
0 3
3 0.256 0.92 1 1 -1 1 1 0
4 6 1 1.4048 0.94 2 0 6 6 33 96
5 0 2 1.12384 1.15 1 1 -1 1 2 0
0.89907
0 3
6 2 1.52 1 1 -1 1 1 0
1.51925
4 1
7 8 1.42 1 1 3 3 12 0
1.21540
0 2
8 6 1.53 1 1 -1 1 1 0
9 7 1 2.37232 1.43 2 1 6 6 40 90

85
 5
10 0 2 1.89786 1.54 1 1 -1 1 2 0
1.51828
0 3
11 8 1.83 1 1 -1 1 1 0
12 5 1 2.21463 1.67 1 1 4 4 18 85
Average 1.27 2.36 9.52 22.56

V-belt
8
6 Demand
4 Ft
Amount
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

86