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EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE

Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0017
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa Social de Descuento 7%
Inversin Total 141,653,333
Valor Actual de la Inversin 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 37,596,013
TIR 11.5%
B/C 1.45
Tiempo de Recupero (aos) 14 anos y 10 meses
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE

Anlisis de Sensibilidad
Tiempo de Recupero
VARIACION INVERSION COEFICIENTE VPL TIR B/C
(anos)
0% 1.00 37,596,013 11.5% 1.45 14 anos y 10 meses

+10% 1.10 29,149,524 10.2% 1.31 17 anos y 3 meses

+20% 1.20 20,703,034 9.1% 1.20 19 anos y 11 meses

+30% 1.30 12,256,545 8.2% 1.11 23 anos y 2 meses

+40% 1.40 3,810,055 7.3% 1.03 27 anos

Tiempo de Recupero
VARIACION O&M COEFICIENTE VPL TIR B/C
(anos)
-10% 0.90 41,179,431 11.9% 1.49 14 anos y 2 meses

0% 1.00 37,596,013 11.5% 1.45 14 anos y 10 meses

+10% 1.10 34,012,595 11.1% 1.40 15 anos y 6 meses

+20% 1.20 30,429,178 10.7% 1.36 16 anos y 3 meses

+30% 1.30 26,845,760 10.3% 1.32 17 anos y 1 mes

Tiempo de Recupero
VARIACION CANTIDAD (POP) COEFICIENTE VPL TIR B/C
(anos)
+10% 1.10 48,943,531 12.8% 1.58 13 anos

0% 1.00 37,596,013 11.5% 1.45 14 anos y 10 meses

-10% 0.90 25,389,923 10.1% 1.30 17 anos y 6 meses

-20% 0.80 13,183,832 8.7% 1.16 21 anos y 4 meses

-30% 0.70 977,741 7.1% 1.01 28 anos y 2 meses

Tiempo de Recupero
VARIACION PRECIO COEFICIENTE VPL TIR B/C
(anos)
-10% 0.90 45,548,695 12.4% 1.54 13 anos y 7 meses

0% 1.00 37,596,013 11.5% 1.45 14 anos y 10 meses

+10% 1.10 29,643,332 10.6% 1.35 16 anos y 5 meses

+20% 1.20 21,690,651 9.7% 1.26 18 anos y 5 meses

+30% 1.30 13,737,970 8.7% 1.16 21 anos y 2 meses


Demanda de Agua Potable - Adutor Alto Oeste
0.0045
1; 0.0042
0.0040

0.0035

0.0030
R/h/da

0.0025

0.0020
2; 0
0.0015

0.0010
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1

L/h/da
Demanda (l/h/d) Linear (Demanda (l/h/d))
Alto Oeste

2; 0.0017

80 90 100 110

Demanda (l/h/d))
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0017
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 29,149,524
TIR 10.2%
B/C 1.31
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 17 anos y 3 meses

Perodo Ano Inversin Inversin s/sensibilidad

0 2008 23,066,343 25,372,977


1 2009 56,047,826 61,652,609
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 29,702,439
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 9,571,031
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 126,299,055

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.11766
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07536
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.19302

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.07666
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.11766

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.07536


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.19302
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q
59.17 (0.0025) 75.7736
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial
59.17 (0.0025) 46.1900
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final
59.17 (0.0025) 105.3572

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85
pozo 0.90 6.80
busca 4.38 82.25
compra 7.25 7.10
total 13.27 100.00

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85
pozo 0.90 6.80

compra 7.25 7.10


total 8.89 17.75

Tasa de
Valor actual VAC I Valor Actual
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
Inversin s/sensibilidad O&M
poblacional

23,066,343 25,372,977 134,601


52,381,146 57,619,260 136,832 1.7%
139,021 1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633
141,247 1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113
143,510 1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505
145,813 1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559
148,154 1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173
150,425 1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022
152,732 1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395
155,077 1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828
157,460 1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576
12,828,559 14,111,415 159,882 1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636
162,228 1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804
164,610 1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148
167,029 1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707
169,485 1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045
171,979 1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010
174,395 1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850
176,847 1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214
179,334 1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122
181,858 1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305
2,101,390 2,311,529 184,420 1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032
186,916 1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640
189,448 1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631
192,015 1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600
194,618 1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272
197,259 1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648
199,818 1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217
202,413 1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792
205,042 1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597
207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 953,448
90,377,438 99,415,182 174,825,846 64,444,521
la Demanda (en el arco)
Promedio P Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.0029 0.78 (0.87) -0.8992
la Demanda (SSP)
P inicial Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.0042 1.28 (0.61) -2.1155
la Demanda (SCP)
P final Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.0017 0.56 (1.53) -0.3659

Por litro
2.85 0.03 0.00003
6.12 0.06 0.00006
360.26 3.60 0.00360
51.48 0.51 0.00051
420.70 4.21 0.00421

(excluyendo Compra)
Por litro
0.22 0.16 0.0002
0.38 0.34 0.0003

0.40 2.90 0.0029


1.00 3.41 0.0034

Beneficio
Demanda (R/h/d)
Demanda Demanda Demanda Demanda
(m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - SC (m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
Total 0.1930
1,213,245 1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32 63.88
2,004,340 3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28 104.89
2,029,997 3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27 104.86
2,056,066 3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23 104.75
2,082,554 3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19 104.63
2,109,470 3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15 104.52
2,136,822 3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16 104.54
2,163,262 3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17 104.57
2,190,111 3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21 104.68
2,217,376 3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25 104.79
2,256,596 3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34 105.04
2,300,627 3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52 105.53
2,316,688 3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53 105.57
2,335,275 4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56 105.65
2,356,468 4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61 105.78
2,380,345 4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63 105.82
2,422,941 4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70 106.03
2,469,140 4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80 106.31
2,497,983 4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80 106.30
2,527,243 4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80 106.30
2,556,928 4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80 106.29
2,587,044 4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77 106.23
2,623,595 4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79 106.27
2,658,670 4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81 106.33
2,702,295 4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87 106.49
2,734,930 4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87 106.49
2,764,043 4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84 106.40
2,789,729 4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79 106.26
2,802,411 5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67 105.95
2,815,083 5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56 105.64
2,827,770 5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46 105.36
73,929,046 127,376,205 201,305,250
Beneficio por ano
(R/ano) VA Beneficio por VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
ano (R/ano) Beneficio Recupero (anos)
70.45
(25,372,977)
(61,652,609)
9,794,333 8,554,750 9,794,333 8,554,750 1
9,951,144 8,123,097 9,951,144 16,677,847 2
10,110,623 7,713,346 10,110,623 24,391,193 3
10,272,823 7,324,381 10,272,823 31,715,573 4
10,437,798 6,955,145 10,437,798 38,670,719 5
10,597,778 6,599,763 10,597,778 45,270,482 6
10,760,344 6,262,618 10,760,344 51,533,100 7
10,925,547 5,942,773 10,925,547 57,475,874 8
11,093,435 5,639,340 11,093,435 63,115,214 9
11,264,061 5,351,474 (18,438,378) 68,466,688 10
11,429,333 5,074,761 11,429,333 73,541,449 11
11,597,150 4,812,405 11,597,150 78,353,853 12
11,767,556 4,563,661 11,767,556 82,917,514 13
11,940,599 4,327,823 11,940,599 87,245,337 14
12,116,327 4,104,219 12,116,327 91,349,556 15
12,286,533 3,889,602 12,286,533 95,239,158 16
12,459,239 3,686,239 12,459,239 98,925,397 17
12,634,487 3,493,541 12,634,487 102,418,938 18
12,812,322 3,310,947 12,812,322 105,729,886 19
12,992,788 3,137,928 3,421,757 108,867,814 20
13,168,663 2,972,341 13,168,663 111,840,154 21
13,347,013 2,815,511 13,347,013 114,655,665 22
13,527,877 2,666,975 13,527,877 117,322,640 23
13,711,299 2,526,296 13,711,299 119,848,936 24
13,897,319 2,393,056 13,897,319 122,241,992 25
14,077,654 2,265,522 14,077,654 124,507,514 26
14,260,413 2,144,798 14,260,413 126,652,311 27
14,445,634 2,030,519 14,445,634 128,682,830 28
14,633,355 1,922,342 14,633,355 130,605,172 29
352,313,445 130,605,172 29,149,524 130,605,172 29
VPL 29,149,524
TIR 10.2%
B/C 1.31
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 17 anos y 3 meses
98,925,397 1
99,216,525 2
99,507,654 3
99,798,782 4
100,089,911 5
100,381,039 6
100,672,168 7
100,963,296 8
101,254,424 9
101,545,553 10
101,836,681 11
102,418,938 12
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0017
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 20,703,034
TIR 9.1%
B/C 1.20
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 19 anos y 11 meses

Perodo Ano Inversin Inversin s/sensibilidad

0 2008 23,066,343 27,679,612


1 2009 56,047,826 67,257,391
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 32,402,660
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 10,441,124
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 137,780,788

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.11766
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07536
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.19302

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.07666
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.11766

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.07536


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.19302
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q
59.17 (0.0025) 75.7736
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial
59.17 (0.0025) 46.1900
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final
59.17 (0.0025) 105.3572

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85
pozo 0.90 6.80
busca 4.38 82.25
compra 7.25 7.10
total 13.27 100.00

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85
pozo 0.90 6.80

compra 7.25 7.10


total 8.89 17.75

Tasa de
Valor actual VAC I Valor Actual
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
Inversin s/sensibilidad O&M
poblacional

23,066,343 27,679,612 134,601


52,381,146 62,857,375 136,832 1.7%
139,021 1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633
141,247 1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113
143,510 1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505
145,813 1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559
148,154 1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173
150,425 1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022
152,732 1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395
155,077 1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828
157,460 1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576
12,828,559 15,394,271 159,882 1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636
162,228 1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804
164,610 1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148
167,029 1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707
169,485 1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045
171,979 1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010
174,395 1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850
176,847 1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214
179,334 1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122
181,858 1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305
2,101,390 2,521,668 184,420 1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032
186,916 1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640
189,448 1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631
192,015 1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600
194,618 1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272
197,259 1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648
199,818 1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217
202,413 1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792
205,042 1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597
207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 953,448
90,377,438 108,452,925 174,825,846 64,444,521
la Demanda (en el arco)
Promedio P Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.0029 0.78 (0.87) -0.8992
la Demanda (SSP)
P inicial Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.0042 1.28 (0.61) -2.1155
la Demanda (SCP)
P final Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.0017 0.56 (1.53) -0.3659

Por litro
2.85 0.03 0.00003
6.12 0.06 0.00006
360.26 3.60 0.00360
51.48 0.51 0.00051
420.70 4.21 0.00421

(excluyendo Compra)
Por litro
0.22 0.16 0.0002
0.38 0.34 0.0003

0.40 2.90 0.0029


1.00 3.41 0.0034

Beneficio
Demanda (R/h/d)
Demanda Demanda Demanda Demanda
(m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - SC (m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
Total 0.1930
1,213,245 1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32 63.88
2,004,340 3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28 104.89
2,029,997 3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27 104.86
2,056,066 3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23 104.75
2,082,554 3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19 104.63
2,109,470 3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15 104.52
2,136,822 3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16 104.54
2,163,262 3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17 104.57
2,190,111 3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21 104.68
2,217,376 3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25 104.79
2,256,596 3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34 105.04
2,300,627 3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52 105.53
2,316,688 3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53 105.57
2,335,275 4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56 105.65
2,356,468 4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61 105.78
2,380,345 4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63 105.82
2,422,941 4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70 106.03
2,469,140 4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80 106.31
2,497,983 4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80 106.30
2,527,243 4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80 106.30
2,556,928 4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80 106.29
2,587,044 4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77 106.23
2,623,595 4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79 106.27
2,658,670 4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81 106.33
2,702,295 4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87 106.49
2,734,930 4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87 106.49
2,764,043 4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84 106.40
2,789,729 4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79 106.26
2,802,411 5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67 105.95
2,815,083 5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56 105.64
2,827,770 5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46 105.36
73,929,046 127,376,205 201,305,250
Beneficio por ano
(R/ano) VA Beneficio por VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
ano (R/ano) Beneficio Recupero (anos)
70.45
(27,679,612)
(67,257,391)
9,794,333 8,554,750 9,794,333 8,554,750 1
9,951,144 8,123,097 9,951,144 16,677,847 2
10,110,623 7,713,346 10,110,623 24,391,193 3
10,272,823 7,324,381 10,272,823 31,715,573 4
10,437,798 6,955,145 10,437,798 38,670,719 5
10,597,778 6,599,763 10,597,778 45,270,482 6
10,760,344 6,262,618 10,760,344 51,533,100 7
10,925,547 5,942,773 10,925,547 57,475,874 8
11,093,435 5,639,340 11,093,435 63,115,214 9
11,264,061 5,351,474 (21,138,599) 68,466,688 10
11,429,333 5,074,761 11,429,333 73,541,449 11
11,597,150 4,812,405 11,597,150 78,353,853 12
11,767,556 4,563,661 11,767,556 82,917,514 13
11,940,599 4,327,823 11,940,599 87,245,337 14
12,116,327 4,104,219 12,116,327 91,349,556 15
12,286,533 3,889,602 12,286,533 95,239,158 16
12,459,239 3,686,239 12,459,239 98,925,397 17
12,634,487 3,493,541 12,634,487 102,418,938 18
12,812,322 3,310,947 12,812,322 105,729,886 19
12,992,788 3,137,928 2,551,663 108,867,814 20
13,168,663 2,972,341 13,168,663 111,840,154 21
13,347,013 2,815,511 13,347,013 114,655,665 22
13,527,877 2,666,975 13,527,877 117,322,640 23
13,711,299 2,526,296 13,711,299 119,848,936 24
13,897,319 2,393,056 13,897,319 122,241,992 25
14,077,654 2,265,522 14,077,654 124,507,514 26
14,260,413 2,144,798 14,260,413 126,652,311 27
14,445,634 2,030,519 14,445,634 128,682,830 28
14,633,355 1,922,342 14,633,355 130,605,172 29
352,313,445 130,605,172 20,703,034 130,605,172 29
VPL 20,703,034
TIR 9.1%
B/C 1.20
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 19 anos y 11 meses
105,729,886 1
105,991,380 2
106,282,508 3
106,573,636 4
106,864,765 5
107,155,893 6
107,447,022 7
107,738,150 8
108,029,278 9
108,320,407 10
108,611,535 11
108,867,814 12
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0017
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 12,256,545
TIR 8.2%
B/C 1.11
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 23 anos y 2 meses

Perodo Ano Inversin Inversin s/sensibilidad

0 2008 23,066,343 29,986,246


1 2009 56,047,826 72,862,174
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 35,102,882
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 11,311,218
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 149,262,520

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.11766
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07536
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.19302

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.07666
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.11766

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.07536


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.19302
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q
59.17 (0.0025) 75.7736
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial
59.17 (0.0025) 46.1900
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final
59.17 (0.0025) 105.3572

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85
pozo 0.90 6.80
busca 4.38 82.25
compra 7.25 7.10
total 13.27 100.00

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85
pozo 0.90 6.80

compra 7.25 7.10


total 8.89 17.75

Tasa de
Valor actual VAC I Valor Actual
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
Inversin s/sensibilidad O&M
poblacional

23,066,343 29,986,246 134,601


52,381,146 68,095,490 136,832 1.7%
139,021 1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633
141,247 1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113
143,510 1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505
145,813 1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559
148,154 1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173
150,425 1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022
152,732 1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395
155,077 1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828
157,460 1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576
12,828,559 16,677,126 159,882 1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636
162,228 1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804
164,610 1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148
167,029 1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707
169,485 1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045
171,979 1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010
174,395 1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850
176,847 1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214
179,334 1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122
181,858 1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305
2,101,390 2,731,807 184,420 1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032
186,916 1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640
189,448 1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631
192,015 1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600
194,618 1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272
197,259 1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648
199,818 1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217
202,413 1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792
205,042 1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597
207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 953,448
90,377,438 117,490,669 174,825,846 64,444,521
la Demanda (en el arco)
Promedio P Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.0029 0.78 (0.87) -0.8992
la Demanda (SSP)
P inicial Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.0042 1.28 (0.61) -2.1155
la Demanda (SCP)
P final Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.0017 0.56 (1.53) -0.3659

Por litro
2.85 0.03 0.00003
6.12 0.06 0.00006
360.26 3.60 0.00360
51.48 0.51 0.00051
420.70 4.21 0.00421

(excluyendo Compra)
Por litro
0.22 0.16 0.0002
0.38 0.34 0.0003

0.40 2.90 0.0029


1.00 3.41 0.0034

Beneficio
Demanda (R/h/d)
Demanda Demanda Demanda Demanda
(m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - SC (m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
Total 0.1930
1,213,245 1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32 63.88
2,004,340 3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28 104.89
2,029,997 3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27 104.86
2,056,066 3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23 104.75
2,082,554 3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19 104.63
2,109,470 3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15 104.52
2,136,822 3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16 104.54
2,163,262 3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17 104.57
2,190,111 3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21 104.68
2,217,376 3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25 104.79
2,256,596 3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34 105.04
2,300,627 3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52 105.53
2,316,688 3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53 105.57
2,335,275 4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56 105.65
2,356,468 4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61 105.78
2,380,345 4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63 105.82
2,422,941 4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70 106.03
2,469,140 4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80 106.31
2,497,983 4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80 106.30
2,527,243 4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80 106.30
2,556,928 4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80 106.29
2,587,044 4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77 106.23
2,623,595 4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79 106.27
2,658,670 4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81 106.33
2,702,295 4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87 106.49
2,734,930 4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87 106.49
2,764,043 4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84 106.40
2,789,729 4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79 106.26
2,802,411 5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67 105.95
2,815,083 5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56 105.64
2,827,770 5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46 105.36
73,929,046 127,376,205 201,305,250
Beneficio por ano
(R/ano) VA Beneficio por VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
ano (R/ano) Beneficio Recupero (anos)
70.45
(29,986,246)
(72,862,174)
9,794,333 8,554,750 9,794,333 8,554,750 1
9,951,144 8,123,097 9,951,144 16,677,847 2
10,110,623 7,713,346 10,110,623 24,391,193 3
10,272,823 7,324,381 10,272,823 31,715,573 4
10,437,798 6,955,145 10,437,798 38,670,719 5
10,597,778 6,599,763 10,597,778 45,270,482 6
10,760,344 6,262,618 10,760,344 51,533,100 7
10,925,547 5,942,773 10,925,547 57,475,874 8
11,093,435 5,639,340 11,093,435 63,115,214 9
11,264,061 5,351,474 (23,838,821) 68,466,688 10
11,429,333 5,074,761 11,429,333 73,541,449 11
11,597,150 4,812,405 11,597,150 78,353,853 12
11,767,556 4,563,661 11,767,556 82,917,514 13
11,940,599 4,327,823 11,940,599 87,245,337 14
12,116,327 4,104,219 12,116,327 91,349,556 15
12,286,533 3,889,602 12,286,533 95,239,158 16
12,459,239 3,686,239 12,459,239 98,925,397 17
12,634,487 3,493,541 12,634,487 102,418,938 18
12,812,322 3,310,947 12,812,322 105,729,886 19
12,992,788 3,137,928 1,681,569 108,867,814 20
13,168,663 2,972,341 13,168,663 111,840,154 21
13,347,013 2,815,511 13,347,013 114,655,665 22
13,527,877 2,666,975 13,527,877 117,322,640 23
13,711,299 2,526,296 13,711,299 119,848,936 24
13,897,319 2,393,056 13,897,319 122,241,992 25
14,077,654 2,265,522 14,077,654 124,507,514 26
14,260,413 2,144,798 14,260,413 126,652,311 27
14,445,634 2,030,519 14,445,634 128,682,830 28
14,633,355 1,922,342 14,633,355 130,605,172 29
352,313,445 130,605,172 12,256,545 130,605,172 29
VPL 12,256,545
TIR 8.2%
B/C 1.11
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 23 anos y 2 meses
117,322,640 1
117,584,134 2
117,875,263 3
118,166,391 4
118,457,520 5
118,748,648 6
119,039,776 7
119,330,905 8
119,622,033 9
119,913,162 10
120,204,290 11
119,848,936 12
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0017
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 3,810,055
TIR 7.3%
B/C 1.03
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 27 anos

Perodo Ano Inversin Inversin s/sensibilidad

0 2008 23,066,343 32,292,880


1 2009 56,047,826 78,466,956
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 37,803,104
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 12,181,312
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 160,744,252

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.11766
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07536
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.19302

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.07666
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.11766

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.07536


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.19302
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q
59.17 (0.0025) 75.7736
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial
59.17 (0.0025) 46.1900
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final
59.17 (0.0025) 105.3572

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85
pozo 0.90 6.80
busca 4.38 82.25
compra 7.25 7.10
total 13.27 100.00

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85
pozo 0.90 6.80

compra 7.25 7.10


total 8.89 17.75

Tasa de
Valor actual VAC I Valor Actual
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
Inversin s/sensibilidad O&M
poblacional

23,066,343 32,292,880 134,601


52,381,146 73,333,604 136,832 1.7%
139,021 1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633
141,247 1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113
143,510 1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505
145,813 1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559
148,154 1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173
150,425 1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022
152,732 1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395
155,077 1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828
157,460 1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576
12,828,559 17,959,982 159,882 1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636
162,228 1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804
164,610 1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148
167,029 1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707
169,485 1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045
171,979 1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010
174,395 1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850
176,847 1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214
179,334 1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122
181,858 1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305
2,101,390 2,941,946 184,420 1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032
186,916 1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640
189,448 1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631
192,015 1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600
194,618 1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272
197,259 1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648
199,818 1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217
202,413 1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792
205,042 1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597
207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 953,448
90,377,438 126,528,413 174,825,846 64,444,521
la Demanda (en el arco)
Promedio P Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.0029 0.78 (0.87) -0.8992
la Demanda (SSP)
P inicial Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.0042 1.28 (0.61) -2.1155
la Demanda (SCP)
P final Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.0017 0.56 (1.53) -0.3659

Por litro
2.85 0.03 0.00003
6.12 0.06 0.00006
360.26 3.60 0.00360
51.48 0.51 0.00051
420.70 4.21 0.00421

(excluyendo Compra)
Por litro
0.22 0.16 0.0002
0.38 0.34 0.0003

0.40 2.90 0.0029


1.00 3.41 0.0034

Beneficio
Demanda (R/h/d)
Demanda Demanda Demanda Demanda
(m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - SC (m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
Total 0.1930
1,213,245 1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32 63.88
2,004,340 3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28 104.89
2,029,997 3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27 104.86
2,056,066 3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23 104.75
2,082,554 3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19 104.63
2,109,470 3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15 104.52
2,136,822 3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16 104.54
2,163,262 3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17 104.57
2,190,111 3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21 104.68
2,217,376 3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25 104.79
2,256,596 3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34 105.04
2,300,627 3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52 105.53
2,316,688 3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53 105.57
2,335,275 4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56 105.65
2,356,468 4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61 105.78
2,380,345 4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63 105.82
2,422,941 4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70 106.03
2,469,140 4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80 106.31
2,497,983 4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80 106.30
2,527,243 4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80 106.30
2,556,928 4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80 106.29
2,587,044 4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77 106.23
2,623,595 4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79 106.27
2,658,670 4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81 106.33
2,702,295 4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87 106.49
2,734,930 4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87 106.49
2,764,043 4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84 106.40
2,789,729 4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79 106.26
2,802,411 5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67 105.95
2,815,083 5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56 105.64
2,827,770 5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46 105.36
73,929,046 127,376,205 201,305,250
Beneficio por ano
(R/ano) VA Beneficio por VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
ano (R/ano) Beneficio Recupero (anos)
70.45
(32,292,880)
(78,466,956)
9,794,333 8,554,750 9,794,333 8,554,750 1
9,951,144 8,123,097 9,951,144 16,677,847 2
10,110,623 7,713,346 10,110,623 24,391,193 3
10,272,823 7,324,381 10,272,823 31,715,573 4
10,437,798 6,955,145 10,437,798 38,670,719 5
10,597,778 6,599,763 10,597,778 45,270,482 6
10,760,344 6,262,618 10,760,344 51,533,100 7
10,925,547 5,942,773 10,925,547 57,475,874 8
11,093,435 5,639,340 11,093,435 63,115,214 9
11,264,061 5,351,474 (26,539,043) 68,466,688 10
11,429,333 5,074,761 11,429,333 73,541,449 11
11,597,150 4,812,405 11,597,150 78,353,853 12
11,767,556 4,563,661 11,767,556 82,917,514 13
11,940,599 4,327,823 11,940,599 87,245,337 14
12,116,327 4,104,219 12,116,327 91,349,556 15
12,286,533 3,889,602 12,286,533 95,239,158 16
12,459,239 3,686,239 12,459,239 98,925,397 17
12,634,487 3,493,541 12,634,487 102,418,938 18
12,812,322 3,310,947 12,812,322 105,729,886 19
12,992,788 3,137,928 811,476 108,867,814 20
13,168,663 2,972,341 13,168,663 111,840,154 21
13,347,013 2,815,511 13,347,013 114,655,665 22
13,527,877 2,666,975 13,527,877 117,322,640 23
13,711,299 2,526,296 13,711,299 119,848,936 24
13,897,319 2,393,056 13,897,319 122,241,992 25
14,077,654 2,265,522 14,077,654 124,507,514 26
14,260,413 2,144,798 14,260,413 126,652,311 27
14,445,634 2,030,519 14,445,634 128,682,830 28
14,633,355 1,922,342 14,633,355 130,605,172 29
352,313,445 130,605,172 3,810,055 130,605,172 29
VPL 3,810,055
TIR 7.3%
B/C 1.03
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 27 anos
126,652,311 1
126,913,805 2
127,204,934 3
127,496,062 4
127,787,191 5
128,078,319 6
128,369,448 7
128,660,576 8
128,951,704 9
129,242,833 10
129,533,961 11
128,682,830 12
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0016
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,375,929

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0016

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 41,179,431
TIR 11.9%
B/C 1.49
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 14 anos y 2 meses

Valor actual
Perodo Ano Inversin
Inversin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.12112
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07757
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.19869

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.07321
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.12112

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.07757


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.19869
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P
59.17 (0.0026) 75.7736 0.0029
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial P inicial
59.17 (0.0026) 46.1900 0.0042
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final P final
59.17 (0.0026) 105.3572 0.0016

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48
total 13.27 100.00 420.70

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40


total 8.89 17.75 1.00

Tasa de
O&M Valor Actual Demanda
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
s/sensibilidad O&M (m3/a]no) - SC
poblacional

134,601 1,213,245
136,832 1.7% 2,004,340
139,021 1.6% 5,019,966 4,517,970 4,384,633 2,029,997
141,247 1.6% 5,038,740 4,534,866 4,113,113 2,056,066
143,510 1.6% 5,040,672 4,536,605 3,845,505 2,082,554
145,813 1.6% 5,078,022 4,570,220 3,620,559 2,109,470
148,154 1.6% 5,117,750 4,605,975 3,410,173 2,136,822
150,425 1.5% 5,156,200 4,640,580 3,211,022 2,163,262
152,732 1.5% 5,196,473 4,676,826 3,024,395 2,190,111
155,077 1.5% 5,237,453 4,713,708 2,848,828 2,217,376
157,460 1.5% 5,280,968 4,752,871 2,684,576 2,256,596
159,882 1.5% 5,328,718 4,795,846 2,531,636 2,300,627
162,228 1.5% 5,368,782 4,831,904 2,383,804 2,316,688
164,610 1.5% 5,709,279 5,138,351 2,369,148 2,335,275
167,029 1.5% 5,751,954 5,176,758 2,230,707 2,356,468
169,485 1.5% 5,794,090 5,214,681 2,100,045 2,380,345
171,979 1.5% 5,839,411 5,255,470 1,978,010 2,422,941
174,395 1.4% 5,884,398 5,295,959 1,862,850 2,469,140
176,847 1.4% 5,925,743 5,333,169 1,753,214 2,497,983
179,334 1.4% 5,967,712 5,370,941 1,650,122 2,527,243
181,858 1.4% 6,595,123 5,935,611 1,704,305 2,556,928
184,420 1.4% 6,637,456 5,973,710 1,603,032 2,587,044
186,916 1.4% 6,923,124 6,230,812 1,562,640 2,623,595
189,448 1.4% 6,966,828 6,270,145 1,469,631 2,658,670
192,015 1.4% 7,013,057 6,311,751 1,382,600 2,702,295
194,618 1.4% 7,057,139 6,351,425 1,300,272 2,734,930
197,259 1.4% 7,100,347 6,390,313 1,222,648 2,764,043
199,818 1.3% 7,141,085 6,426,977 1,149,217 2,789,729
202,413 1.3% 7,179,364 6,461,428 1,079,792 2,802,411
205,042 1.3% 7,218,101 6,496,291 1,014,597 2,815,083
207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 6,532,100 953,448 2,827,770
174,825,846 157,343,262 64,444,521 73,929,046
Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.78 (0.91) -0.8624

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


1.28 (0.62) -2.0552

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


0.56 (1.65) -0.3394

Por litro
0.03 0.00003
0.06 0.00006
3.60 0.00360
0.51 0.00051
4.21 0.00421

Por litro
0.16 0.0002
0.34 0.0003

2.90 0.0029
3.41 0.0034

Beneficio Beneficio por ano


Demanda (R/h/d) (R/ano)
Demanda Demanda Demanda
(m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
Total 0.1987 72.52
1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32 63.88
3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28 104.89
3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27 104.86 10,081,871
3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23 104.75 10,243,286
3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19 104.63 10,407,446
3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15 104.52 10,574,408
3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16 104.54 10,744,227
3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17 104.57 10,908,903
3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21 104.68 11,076,242
3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25 104.79 11,246,295
3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34 105.04 11,419,112
3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52 105.53 11,594,747
3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53 105.57 11,764,871
4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56 105.65 11,937,614
4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61 105.78 12,113,023
4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63 105.82 12,291,147
4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70 106.03 12,472,033
4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80 106.31 12,647,237
4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80 106.30 12,825,013
4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80 106.30 13,005,406
4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80 106.29 13,188,461
4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77 106.23 13,374,225
4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79 106.27 13,555,263
4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81 106.33 13,738,849
4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87 106.49 13,925,024
4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87 106.49 14,113,830
4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84 106.40 14,305,312
4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79 106.26 14,490,941
5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67 105.95 14,679,065
5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56 105.64 14,869,723
5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46 105.36 15,062,956
127,376,205 201,305,250 362,656,530
VPL
TIR
B/C
Tiempo de Recupero (anos)
VA Beneficio por VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
ano (R/ano) Beneficio Recupero (anos)

(23,066,343)
(56,047,826)
8,805,897 10,081,871 8,805,897 1
8,361,572 10,243,286 17,167,469 2
7,939,791 10,407,446 25,107,260 3
7,539,407 10,574,408 32,646,667 4
7,159,332 10,744,227 39,805,999 5
6,793,517 10,908,903 46,599,516 6
6,446,474 11,076,242 53,045,989 7
6,117,239 11,246,295 59,163,229 8
5,804,898 11,419,112 64,968,126 9
5,508,581 (15,407,470) 70,476,707 10
5,223,744 11,764,871 75,700,450 11
4,953,686 11,937,614 80,654,136 12
4,697,639 12,113,023 85,351,775 13
4,454,877 12,291,147 89,806,652 14 89,806,652
4,224,709 12,472,033 94,031,362 15 90,158,712
4,003,791 12,647,237 98,035,153 16 90,510,771
3,794,459 12,825,013 101,829,611 17 90,862,830
3,596,103 13,005,406 105,425,714 18 91,214,889
3,408,149 13,188,461 108,833,863 19 91,566,948
3,230,050 4,673,288 112,063,914 20 91,919,007
3,059,601 13,555,263 115,123,515 21 92,271,066
2,898,167 13,738,849 118,021,683 22 92,623,125
2,745,271 13,925,024 120,766,954 23 92,975,184
2,600,462 14,113,830 123,367,416 24 93,327,243
2,463,310 14,305,312 125,830,726 25 94,031,362
2,332,032 14,490,941 128,162,758 26
2,207,764 14,679,065 130,370,522 27
2,090,130 14,869,723 132,460,652 28
1,978,777 15,062,956 134,439,429 29
134,439,429 41,179,431 134,439,429 29
41,179,431
11.9%
1.49
de Recupero (anos) 14 anos y 2 meses
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0017
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 6,570,580

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 34,012,595
TIR 11.1%
B/C 1.40
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 15 anos y 6 meses

Valor actual
Perodo Ano Inversin
Inversin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.11421
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07315
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.18735

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.08011
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.11421

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.07315


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.18735
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P
59.17 (0.0025) 75.7736 0.0030
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial P inicial
59.17 (0.0025) 46.1900 0.0042
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final P final
59.17 (0.0025) 105.3572 0.0017

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48
total 13.27 100.00 420.70

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40


total 8.89 17.75 1.00

Tasa de
O&M Valor Actual Demanda
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
s/sensibilidad O&M (m3/a]no) - SC
poblacional

134,601 1,213,245
136,832 1.7% 2,004,340
139,021 1.6% 5,019,966 5,521,963 4,384,633 2,029,997
141,247 1.6% 5,038,740 5,542,614 4,113,113 2,056,066
143,510 1.6% 5,040,672 5,544,740 3,845,505 2,082,554
145,813 1.6% 5,078,022 5,585,824 3,620,559 2,109,470
148,154 1.6% 5,117,750 5,629,525 3,410,173 2,136,822
150,425 1.5% 5,156,200 5,671,819 3,211,022 2,163,262
152,732 1.5% 5,196,473 5,716,121 3,024,395 2,190,111
155,077 1.5% 5,237,453 5,761,199 2,848,828 2,217,376
157,460 1.5% 5,280,968 5,809,065 2,684,576 2,256,596
159,882 1.5% 5,328,718 5,861,590 2,531,636 2,300,627
162,228 1.5% 5,368,782 5,905,661 2,383,804 2,316,688
164,610 1.5% 5,709,279 6,280,207 2,369,148 2,335,275
167,029 1.5% 5,751,954 6,327,149 2,230,707 2,356,468
169,485 1.5% 5,794,090 6,373,499 2,100,045 2,380,345
171,979 1.5% 5,839,411 6,423,352 1,978,010 2,422,941
174,395 1.4% 5,884,398 6,472,838 1,862,850 2,469,140
176,847 1.4% 5,925,743 6,518,318 1,753,214 2,497,983
179,334 1.4% 5,967,712 6,564,483 1,650,122 2,527,243
181,858 1.4% 6,595,123 7,254,636 1,704,305 2,556,928
184,420 1.4% 6,637,456 7,301,201 1,603,032 2,587,044
186,916 1.4% 6,923,124 7,615,437 1,562,640 2,623,595
189,448 1.4% 6,966,828 7,663,510 1,469,631 2,658,670
192,015 1.4% 7,013,057 7,714,363 1,382,600 2,702,295
194,618 1.4% 7,057,139 7,762,853 1,300,272 2,734,930
197,259 1.4% 7,100,347 7,810,382 1,222,648 2,764,043
199,818 1.3% 7,141,085 7,855,194 1,149,217 2,789,729
202,413 1.3% 7,179,364 7,897,301 1,079,792 2,802,411
205,042 1.3% 7,218,101 7,939,912 1,014,597 2,815,083
207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 7,983,677 953,448 2,827,770
174,825,846 192,308,431 64,444,521 73,929,046
Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.78 (0.83) -0.9382

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


1.28 (0.59) -2.1795

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


0.56 (1.43) -0.3939

Por litro
0.03 0.00003
0.06 0.00006
3.60 0.00360
0.51 0.00051
4.21 0.00421

Por litro
0.16 0.0002
0.34 0.0003

2.90 0.0029
3.41 0.0034

Beneficio Beneficio por ano


Demanda (R/h/d) (R/ano)
Demanda Demanda Demanda
(m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
Total 0.1874 68.38
1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32 63.88
3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28 104.89
3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27 104.86 9,506,794
3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23 104.75 9,659,002
3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19 104.63 9,813,799
3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15 104.52 9,971,237
3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16 104.54 10,131,369
3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17 104.57 10,286,652
3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21 104.68 10,444,446
3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25 104.79 10,604,799
3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34 105.04 10,767,758
3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52 105.53 10,933,375
3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53 105.57 11,093,795
4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56 105.65 11,256,685
4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61 105.78 11,422,088
4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63 105.82 11,590,051
4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70 106.03 11,760,620
4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80 106.31 11,925,830
4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80 106.30 12,093,466
4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80 106.30 12,263,569
4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80 106.29 12,436,183
4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77 106.23 12,611,350
4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79 106.27 12,782,062
4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81 106.33 12,955,176
4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87 106.49 13,130,731
4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87 106.49 13,308,768
4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84 106.40 13,489,327
4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79 106.26 13,664,368
5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67 105.95 13,841,761
5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56 105.64 14,021,544
5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46 105.36 14,203,755
127,376,205 201,305,250 341,970,361
VPL
TIR
B/C
Tiempo de Recupero (anos)
VA Beneficio por VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
ano (R/ano) Beneficio Recupero (anos)

(23,066,343)
(56,047,826)
8,303,602 9,506,794 8,303,602 1
7,884,623 9,659,002 16,188,225 2
7,486,900 9,813,799 23,675,125 3
7,109,354 9,971,237 30,784,479 4
6,750,959 10,131,369 37,535,438 5
6,406,010 10,286,652 43,941,448 6
6,078,763 10,444,446 50,020,211 7
5,768,308 10,604,799 55,788,519 8
5,473,782 10,767,758 61,262,301 9
5,194,368 (16,068,842) 66,456,669 10
4,925,778 11,093,795 71,382,447 11
4,671,124 11,256,685 76,053,571 12
4,429,683 11,422,088 80,483,253 13
4,200,768 11,590,051 84,684,021 14
3,983,729 11,760,620 88,667,750 15 88,667,750
3,775,412 11,925,830 92,443,163 16 88,999,728
3,578,020 12,093,466 96,021,183 17 89,331,705
3,390,979 12,263,569 99,412,162 18 89,663,683
3,213,746 12,436,183 102,625,908 19 89,995,660
3,045,806 3,910,413 105,671,714 20 90,327,637
2,885,080 12,782,062 108,556,793 21 90,659,615
2,732,854 12,955,176 111,289,647 22 90,991,592
2,588,679 13,130,731 113,878,327 23 91,323,570
2,452,130 13,308,768 116,330,456 24 91,655,547
2,322,801 13,489,327 118,653,258 25 91,987,524
2,199,012 13,664,368 120,852,269 26 92,443,163
2,081,832 13,841,761 122,934,101 27
1,970,908 14,021,544 124,905,009 28
1,865,906 14,203,755 126,770,915 29
126,770,915 34,012,595 126,770,915 29
34,012,595
11.1%
1.40
de Recupero (anos) 15 anos y 6 meses
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0018
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 7,167,906

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0018

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 30,429,178
TIR 10.7%
B/C 1.36
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 16 anos y 3 meses

Valor actual
Perodo Ano Inversin
Inversin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.11075
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07093
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.18169

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.08357
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.11075

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.07093


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.18169
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P
59.17 (0.0024) 75.7736 0.0030
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial P inicial
59.17 (0.0024) 46.1900 0.0042
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final P final
59.17 (0.0024) 105.3572 0.0018

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48
total 13.27 100.00 420.70

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40


total 8.89 17.75 1.00

Tasa de
O&M Valor Actual Demanda
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
s/sensibilidad O&M (m3/a]no) - SC
poblacional

134,601 1,213,245
136,832 1.7% 2,004,340
139,021 1.6% 5,019,966 6,023,959 4,384,633 2,029,997
141,247 1.6% 5,038,740 6,046,488 4,113,113 2,056,066
143,510 1.6% 5,040,672 6,048,807 3,845,505 2,082,554
145,813 1.6% 5,078,022 6,093,626 3,620,559 2,109,470
148,154 1.6% 5,117,750 6,141,300 3,410,173 2,136,822
150,425 1.5% 5,156,200 6,187,439 3,211,022 2,163,262
152,732 1.5% 5,196,473 6,235,768 3,024,395 2,190,111
155,077 1.5% 5,237,453 6,284,944 2,848,828 2,217,376
157,460 1.5% 5,280,968 6,337,162 2,684,576 2,256,596
159,882 1.5% 5,328,718 6,394,462 2,531,636 2,300,627
162,228 1.5% 5,368,782 6,442,539 2,383,804 2,316,688
164,610 1.5% 5,709,279 6,851,135 2,369,148 2,335,275
167,029 1.5% 5,751,954 6,902,345 2,230,707 2,356,468
169,485 1.5% 5,794,090 6,952,908 2,100,045 2,380,345
171,979 1.5% 5,839,411 7,007,293 1,978,010 2,422,941
174,395 1.4% 5,884,398 7,061,278 1,862,850 2,469,140
176,847 1.4% 5,925,743 7,110,892 1,753,214 2,497,983
179,334 1.4% 5,967,712 7,161,254 1,650,122 2,527,243
181,858 1.4% 6,595,123 7,914,148 1,704,305 2,556,928
184,420 1.4% 6,637,456 7,964,947 1,603,032 2,587,044
186,916 1.4% 6,923,124 8,307,749 1,562,640 2,623,595
189,448 1.4% 6,966,828 8,360,193 1,469,631 2,658,670
192,015 1.4% 7,013,057 8,415,668 1,382,600 2,702,295
194,618 1.4% 7,057,139 8,468,567 1,300,272 2,734,930
197,259 1.4% 7,100,347 8,520,417 1,222,648 2,764,043
199,818 1.3% 7,141,085 8,569,302 1,149,217 2,789,729
202,413 1.3% 7,179,364 8,615,237 1,079,792 2,802,411
205,042 1.3% 7,218,101 8,661,722 1,014,597 2,815,083
207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 8,709,466 953,448 2,827,770
174,825,846 209,791,015 64,444,521 73,929,046
Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.78 (0.80) -0.9796

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


1.28 (0.57) -2.2475

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


0.56 (1.33) -0.4237

Por litro
0.03 0.00003
0.06 0.00006
3.60 0.00360
0.51 0.00051
4.21 0.00421

Por litro
0.16 0.0002
0.34 0.0003

2.90 0.0029
3.41 0.0034

Beneficio Beneficio por ano


Demanda (R/h/d) (R/ano)
Demanda Demanda Demanda
(m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
Total 0.1817 66.32
1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32 63.88
3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28 104.89
3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27 104.86 9,219,256
3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23 104.75 9,366,860
3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19 104.63 9,516,975
3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15 104.52 9,669,651
3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16 104.54 9,824,940
3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17 104.57 9,975,527
3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21 104.68 10,128,548
3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25 104.79 10,284,051
3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34 105.04 10,442,082
3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52 105.53 10,602,689
3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53 105.57 10,758,257
4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56 105.65 10,916,220
4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61 105.78 11,076,621
4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63 105.82 11,239,504
4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70 106.03 11,404,914
4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80 106.31 11,565,127
4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80 106.30 11,727,692
4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80 106.30 11,892,650
4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80 106.29 12,060,043
4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77 106.23 12,229,913
4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79 106.27 12,395,462
4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81 106.33 12,563,339
4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87 106.49 12,733,585
4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87 106.49 12,906,237
4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84 106.40 13,081,335
4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79 106.26 13,251,081
5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67 105.95 13,423,109
5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56 105.64 13,597,455
5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46 105.36 13,774,154
127,376,205 201,305,250 331,627,276
VPL
TIR
B/C
Tiempo de Recupero (anos)
VA Beneficio por VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
ano (R/ano) Beneficio Recupero (anos)

(23,066,343)
(56,047,826)
8,052,455 9,219,256 8,052,455 1
7,646,148 9,366,860 15,698,603 2
7,260,455 9,516,975 22,959,058 3
6,894,328 9,669,651 29,853,386 4
6,546,772 9,824,940 36,400,158 5
6,212,257 9,975,527 42,612,415 6
5,894,907 10,128,548 48,507,322 7
5,593,842 10,284,051 54,101,164 8
5,308,225 10,442,082 59,409,389 9
5,037,261 (16,399,528) 64,446,650 10
4,776,795 10,758,257 69,223,445 11
4,529,843 10,916,220 73,753,288 12
4,295,705 11,076,621 78,048,992 13
4,073,713 11,239,504 82,122,706 14
3,863,239 11,404,914 85,985,945 15
3,661,223 11,565,127 89,647,168 16 89,647,168
3,469,801 11,727,692 93,116,968 17 89,969,104
3,288,417 11,892,650 96,405,385 18 90,291,041
3,116,544 12,060,043 99,521,930 19 90,612,977
2,953,684 3,528,976 102,475,614 20 90,934,914
2,797,819 12,395,462 105,273,433 21 91,256,850
2,650,197 12,563,339 107,923,630 22 91,578,787
2,510,383 12,733,585 110,434,013 23 91,900,724
2,377,964 12,906,237 112,811,977 24 92,222,660
2,252,547 13,081,335 115,064,524 25 92,544,597
2,132,501 13,251,081 117,197,025 26 92,866,533
2,018,865 13,423,109 119,215,890 27 93,116,968
1,911,297 13,597,455 121,127,187 28
1,809,471 13,774,154 122,936,658 29
122,936,658 30,429,178 122,936,658 29
30,429,178
10.7%
1.36
de Recupero (anos) 16 anos y 3 meses
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0019
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 7,765,231

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0019

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 26,845,760
TIR 10.3%
B/C 1.32
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 17 anos y 1 mes

Valor actual
Perodo Ano Inversin
Inversin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.10730
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.06872
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.17602

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.08702
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.10730

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.06872


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.17602
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P
59.17 (0.0023) 75.7736 0.0030
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial P inicial
59.17 (0.0023) 46.1900 0.0042
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final P final
59.17 (0.0023) 105.3572 0.0019

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48
total 13.27 100.00 420.70

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40


total 8.89 17.75 1.00

Tasa de
O&M Valor Actual Demanda
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
s/sensibilidad O&M (m3/a]no) - SC
poblacional

134,601 1,213,245
136,832 1.7% 2,004,340
139,021 1.6% 5,019,966 6,525,956 4,384,633 2,029,997
141,247 1.6% 5,038,740 6,550,362 4,113,113 2,056,066
143,510 1.6% 5,040,672 6,552,874 3,845,505 2,082,554
145,813 1.6% 5,078,022 6,601,428 3,620,559 2,109,470
148,154 1.6% 5,117,750 6,653,075 3,410,173 2,136,822
150,425 1.5% 5,156,200 6,703,059 3,211,022 2,163,262
152,732 1.5% 5,196,473 6,755,415 3,024,395 2,190,111
155,077 1.5% 5,237,453 6,808,689 2,848,828 2,217,376
157,460 1.5% 5,280,968 6,865,258 2,684,576 2,256,596
159,882 1.5% 5,328,718 6,927,334 2,531,636 2,300,627
162,228 1.5% 5,368,782 6,979,417 2,383,804 2,316,688
164,610 1.5% 5,709,279 7,422,063 2,369,148 2,335,275
167,029 1.5% 5,751,954 7,477,540 2,230,707 2,356,468
169,485 1.5% 5,794,090 7,532,317 2,100,045 2,380,345
171,979 1.5% 5,839,411 7,591,234 1,978,010 2,422,941
174,395 1.4% 5,884,398 7,649,718 1,862,850 2,469,140
176,847 1.4% 5,925,743 7,703,466 1,753,214 2,497,983
179,334 1.4% 5,967,712 7,758,026 1,650,122 2,527,243
181,858 1.4% 6,595,123 8,573,660 1,704,305 2,556,928
184,420 1.4% 6,637,456 8,628,692 1,603,032 2,587,044
186,916 1.4% 6,923,124 9,000,062 1,562,640 2,623,595
189,448 1.4% 6,966,828 9,056,876 1,469,631 2,658,670
192,015 1.4% 7,013,057 9,116,974 1,382,600 2,702,295
194,618 1.4% 7,057,139 9,174,281 1,300,272 2,734,930
197,259 1.4% 7,100,347 9,230,452 1,222,648 2,764,043
199,818 1.3% 7,141,085 9,283,411 1,149,217 2,789,729
202,413 1.3% 7,179,364 9,333,174 1,079,792 2,802,411
205,042 1.3% 7,218,101 9,383,532 1,014,597 2,815,083
207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 9,435,255 953,448 2,827,770
174,825,846 227,273,600 64,444,521 73,929,046
Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.78 (0.76) -1.0237

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


1.28 (0.55) -2.3199

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


0.56 (1.23) -0.4555

Por litro
0.03 0.00003
0.06 0.00006
3.60 0.00360
0.51 0.00051
4.21 0.00421

Por litro
0.16 0.0002
0.34 0.0003

2.90 0.0029
3.41 0.0034

Beneficio Beneficio por ano


Demanda (R/h/d) (R/ano)
Demanda Demanda Demanda
(m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
Total 0.1760 64.25
1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32 63.88
3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28 104.89
3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27 104.86 8,931,718
3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23 104.75 9,074,718
3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19 104.63 9,220,151
3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15 104.52 9,368,066
3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16 104.54 9,518,511
3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17 104.57 9,664,401
3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21 104.68 9,812,650
3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25 104.79 9,963,303
3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34 105.04 10,116,405
3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52 105.53 10,272,003
3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53 105.57 10,422,719
4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56 105.65 10,575,755
4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61 105.78 10,731,154
4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63 105.82 10,888,956
4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70 106.03 11,049,207
4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80 106.31 11,204,423
4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80 106.30 11,361,918
4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80 106.30 11,521,732
4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80 106.29 11,683,904
4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77 106.23 11,848,476
4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79 106.27 12,008,861
4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81 106.33 12,171,503
4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87 106.49 12,336,439
4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87 106.49 12,503,706
4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84 106.40 12,673,343
4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79 106.26 12,837,795
5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67 105.95 13,004,458
5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56 105.64 13,173,365
5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46 105.36 13,344,554
127,376,205 201,305,250 321,284,192
VPL
TIR
B/C
Tiempo de Recupero (anos)
VA Beneficio por VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
ano (R/ano) Beneficio Recupero (anos)

(23,066,343)
(56,047,826)
7,801,308 8,931,718 7,801,308 1
7,407,673 9,074,718 15,208,981 2
7,034,009 9,220,151 22,242,990 3
6,679,301 9,368,066 28,922,292 4
6,342,586 9,518,511 35,264,878 5
6,018,503 9,664,401 41,283,381 6
5,711,052 9,812,650 46,994,433 7
5,419,376 9,963,303 52,413,809 8
5,142,667 10,116,405 57,556,476 9
4,880,155 (16,730,214) 62,436,631 10
4,627,812 10,422,719 67,064,443 11
4,388,563 10,575,755 71,453,005 12
4,161,726 10,731,154 75,614,731 13
3,946,659 10,888,956 79,561,390 14
3,742,749 11,049,207 83,304,139 15
3,547,033 11,204,423 86,851,173 16
3,361,582 11,361,918 90,212,754 17 90,212,754
3,185,855 11,521,732 93,398,609 18 90,524,650
3,019,343 11,683,904 96,417,952 19 90,836,546
2,861,562 3,147,539 99,279,514 20 91,148,441
2,710,558 12,008,861 101,990,072 21 91,460,337
2,567,541 12,171,503 104,557,612 22 91,772,233
2,432,087 12,336,439 106,989,700 23 92,084,129
2,303,797 12,503,706 109,293,497 24 92,396,024
2,182,293 12,673,343 111,475,790 25 92,707,920
2,065,991 12,837,795 113,541,781 26 93,019,816
1,955,899 13,004,458 115,497,680 27 93,331,711
1,851,685 13,173,365 117,349,365 28 93,398,609
1,753,036 13,344,554 119,102,401 29
119,102,401 26,845,760 119,102,401 29
26,845,760
10.3%
1.32
de Recupero (anos) 17 anos y 1 mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0017
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 48,943,531
TIR 12.8%
B/C 1.58
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 13 anos

Valor actual
Perodo Ano Inversin
Inversin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.11766
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07536
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.19302

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.07666
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.11766

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.07536


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.19302
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P
59.17 (0.0025) 75.7736 0.0029
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial P inicial
59.17 (0.0025) 46.1900 0.0042
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final P final
59.17 (0.0025) 105.3572 0.0017

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48
total 13.27 100.00 420.70

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40


total 8.89 17.75 1.00

Tasa de
Poblacin Valor Actual Demanda
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
s/sensibilidad O&M (m3/a]no) - SC
poblacional

134,601 148,061 1,213,245


136,832 150,515 1.7% 2,004,340
139,021 152,923 1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633 2,029,997
141,247 155,371 1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113 2,056,066
143,510 157,861 1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505 2,082,554
145,813 160,394 1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559 2,109,470
148,154 162,970 1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173 2,136,822
150,425 165,468 1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022 2,163,262
152,732 168,006 1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395 2,190,111
155,077 170,585 1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828 2,217,376
157,460 173,206 1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576 2,256,596
159,882 175,870 1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636 2,300,627
162,228 178,451 1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804 2,316,688
164,610 181,071 1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148 2,335,275
167,029 183,732 1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707 2,356,468
169,485 186,434 1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045 2,380,345
171,979 189,177 1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010 2,422,941
174,395 191,835 1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850 2,469,140
176,847 194,531 1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214 2,497,983
179,334 197,268 1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122 2,527,243
181,858 200,044 1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305 2,556,928
184,420 202,862 1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032 2,587,044
186,916 205,608 1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640 2,623,595
189,448 207,706 1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631 2,658,670
192,015 207,706 1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600 2,702,295
194,618 207,706 1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272 2,734,930
197,259 207,706 1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648 2,764,043
199,818 207,706 1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217 2,789,729
202,413 207,706 1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792 2,802,411
205,042 207,706 1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597 2,815,083
207,706 207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 953,448 2,827,770
174,825,846 64,444,521 73,929,046
Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.78 (0.87) -0.8992

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


1.28 (0.61) -2.1155

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


0.56 (1.53) -0.3659

Por litro
0.03 0.00003
0.06 0.00006
3.60 0.00360
0.51 0.00051
4.21 0.00421

Por litro
0.16 0.0002
0.34 0.0003

2.90 0.0029
3.41 0.0034

Beneficio Beneficio por ano


Demanda (R/h/d) (R/ano)
Demanda Demanda Demanda
(m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
Total 0.1930 70.45
1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32 63.88
3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28 104.89
3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27 104.86 10,773,766
3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23 104.75 10,946,258
3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19 104.63 11,121,685
3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15 104.52 11,300,105
3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16 104.54 11,481,578
3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17 104.57 11,657,555
3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21 104.68 11,836,379
3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25 104.79 12,018,101
3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34 105.04 12,202,779
3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52 105.53 12,390,467
3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53 105.57 12,572,267
4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56 105.65 12,756,865
4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61 105.78 12,944,311
4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63 105.82 13,134,659
4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70 106.03 13,327,959
4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80 106.31 13,515,187
4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80 106.30 13,705,163
4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80 106.30 13,897,936
4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80 106.29 14,093,554
4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77 106.23 14,292,066
4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79 106.27 14,485,529
4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81 106.33 14,633,355
4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87 106.49 14,633,355
4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87 106.49 14,633,355
4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84 106.40 14,633,355
4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79 106.26 14,633,355
5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67 105.95 14,633,355
5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56 105.64 14,633,355
5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46 105.36 14,633,355
127,376,205 201,305,250 381,521,011
VPL
TIR
B/C
Tiempo de Recupero (anos)
VA Beneficio por VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
ano (R/ano) Beneficio Recupero (anos)

(23,066,343)
(56,047,826)
9,410,224 10,773,766 9,410,224 1
8,935,407 10,946,258 18,345,632 2
8,484,680 11,121,685 26,830,312 3
8,056,819 11,300,105 34,887,130 4
7,650,660 11,481,578 42,537,790 5
7,259,740 11,657,555 49,797,530 6
6,888,880 11,836,379 56,686,410 7
6,537,051 12,018,101 63,223,461 8
6,203,274 12,202,779 69,426,735 9
5,886,622 (14,611,750) 75,313,357 10
5,582,237 12,572,267 80,895,593 11
5,293,645 12,756,865 86,189,239 12 86,189,239
5,020,027 12,944,311 91,209,266 13 86,565,459
4,760,605 13,134,659 95,969,871 14 86,941,679
4,514,641 13,327,959 100,484,512 15 87,317,899
4,278,562 13,515,187 104,763,074 16 87,694,119
4,054,863 13,705,163 108,817,937 17 88,070,339
3,842,895 13,897,936 112,660,832 18 88,446,559
3,642,042 14,093,554 116,302,874 19 88,822,779
3,451,721 5,591,129 119,754,595 20 89,198,999
3,269,575 14,485,529 123,024,170 21 89,575,219
3,086,861 14,633,355 126,111,030 22 89,951,439
2,884,917 14,633,355 128,995,947 23 91,209,266
2,696,184 14,633,355 131,692,131 24
2,519,798 14,633,355 134,211,928 25
2,354,951 14,633,355 136,566,880 26
2,200,889 14,633,355 138,767,769 27
2,056,906 14,633,355 140,824,674 28
1,922,342 14,633,355 142,747,016 29
142,747,016 48,943,531 142,747,016 29
48,943,531
12.8%
1.58
de Recupero (anos) 13 anos
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0017
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 25,389,923
TIR 10.1%
B/C 1.30
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 17 anos y 6 meses

Valor actual
Perodo Ano Inversin
Inversin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.11766
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07536
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.19302

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.07666
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.11766

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.07536


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.19302
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P
59.17 (0.0025) 75.7736 0.0029
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial P inicial
59.17 (0.0025) 46.1900 0.0042
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final P final
59.17 (0.0025) 105.3572 0.0017

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48
total 13.27 100.00 420.70

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40


total 8.89 17.75 1.00

Tasa de
Poblacin Valor Actual Demanda
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
s/sensibilidad O&M (m3/a]no) - SC
poblacional

134,601 121,141 1,213,245


136,832 123,149 1.7% 2,004,340
139,021 125,119 1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633 2,029,997
141,247 127,122 1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113 2,056,066
143,510 129,159 1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505 2,082,554
145,813 131,231 1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559 2,109,470
148,154 133,339 1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173 2,136,822
150,425 135,383 1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022 2,163,262
152,732 137,459 1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395 2,190,111
155,077 139,570 1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828 2,217,376
157,460 141,714 1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576 2,256,596
159,882 143,894 1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636 2,300,627
162,228 146,005 1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804 2,316,688
164,610 148,149 1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148 2,335,275
167,029 150,326 1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707 2,356,468
169,485 152,537 1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045 2,380,345
171,979 154,781 1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010 2,422,941
174,395 156,956 1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850 2,469,140
176,847 159,162 1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214 2,497,983
179,334 161,401 1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122 2,527,243
181,858 163,672 1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305 2,556,928
184,420 165,978 1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032 2,587,044
186,916 168,225 1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640 2,623,595
189,448 170,503 1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631 2,658,670
192,015 172,813 1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600 2,702,295
194,618 175,157 1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272 2,734,930
197,259 177,533 1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648 2,764,043
199,818 179,837 1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217 2,789,729
202,413 182,171 1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792 2,802,411
205,042 184,537 1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597 2,815,083
207,706 186,935 1.3% 7,257,888 953,448 2,827,770
174,825,846 64,444,521 73,929,046
Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.78 (0.87) -0.8992

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


1.28 (0.61) -2.1155

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


0.56 (1.53) -0.3659

Por litro
0.03 0.00003
0.06 0.00006
3.60 0.00360
0.51 0.00051
4.21 0.00421

Por litro
0.16 0.0002
0.34 0.0003

2.90 0.0029
3.41 0.0034

Beneficio Beneficio por ano


Demanda (R/h/d) (R/ano)
Demanda Demanda Demanda
(m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
Total 0.1930 70.45
1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32 63.88
3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28 104.89
3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27 104.86 8,814,899
3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23 104.75 8,956,029
3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19 104.63 9,099,560
3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15 104.52 9,245,540
3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16 104.54 9,394,018
3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17 104.57 9,538,000
3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21 104.68 9,684,310
3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25 104.79 9,832,992
3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34 105.04 9,984,092
3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52 105.53 10,137,655
3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53 105.57 10,286,400
4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56 105.65 10,437,435
4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61 105.78 10,590,800
4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63 105.82 10,746,539
4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70 106.03 10,904,694
4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80 106.31 11,057,880
4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80 106.30 11,213,315
4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80 106.30 11,371,039
4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80 106.29 11,531,090
4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77 106.23 11,693,509
4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79 106.27 11,851,797
4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81 106.33 12,012,311
4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87 106.49 12,175,090
4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87 106.49 12,340,169
4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84 106.40 12,507,588
4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79 106.26 12,669,889
5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67 105.95 12,834,372
5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56 105.64 13,001,070
5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46 105.36 13,170,020
127,376,205 201,305,250 317,082,101
VPL
TIR
B/C
Tiempo de Recupero (anos)
VA Beneficio por VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
ano (R/ano) Beneficio Recupero (anos)

(23,066,343)
(56,047,826)
7,699,275 8,814,899 7,699,275 1
7,310,788 8,956,029 15,010,062 2
6,942,011 9,099,560 21,952,073 3
6,591,943 9,245,540 28,544,016 4
6,259,631 9,394,018 34,803,647 5
5,939,787 9,538,000 40,743,434 6
5,636,356 9,684,310 46,379,790 7
5,348,496 9,832,992 51,728,286 8
5,075,406 9,984,092 56,803,692 9
4,816,327 (16,864,562) 61,620,019 10
4,567,285 10,286,400 66,187,304 11
4,331,164 10,437,435 70,518,468 12
4,107,295 10,590,800 74,625,763 13
3,895,040 10,746,539 78,520,803 14
3,693,797 10,904,694 82,214,600 15
3,500,642 11,057,880 85,715,242 16
3,317,615 11,213,315 89,032,857 17 89,032,857
3,144,187 11,371,039 92,177,044 18 89,340,674
2,979,853 11,531,090 95,156,897 19 89,648,490
2,824,135 2,992,572 97,981,032 20 89,956,307
2,675,107 11,851,797 100,656,139 21 90,264,123
2,533,960 12,012,311 103,190,099 22 90,571,939
2,400,278 12,175,090 105,590,376 23 90,879,756
2,273,666 12,340,169 107,864,042 24 91,187,572
2,153,750 12,507,588 110,017,792 25 91,495,389
2,038,970 12,669,889 112,056,762 26 91,803,205
1,930,318 12,834,372 113,987,080 27 92,111,022
1,827,467 13,001,070 115,814,547 28 92,177,044
1,730,108 13,170,020 117,544,655 29
117,544,655 25,389,923 117,544,655 29
25,389,923
10.1%
1.30
de Recupero (anos) 17 anos y 6 meses
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0017
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 13,183,832
TIR 8.7%
B/C 1.16
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 21 anos y 4 meses

Valor actual
Perodo Ano Inversin
Inversin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.11766
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07536
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.19302

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.07666
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.11766

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.07536


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.19302
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P
59.17 (0.0025) 75.7736 0.0029
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial P inicial
59.17 (0.0025) 46.1900 0.0042
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final P final
59.17 (0.0025) 105.3572 0.0017

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48
total 13.27 100.00 420.70

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40


total 8.89 17.75 1.00

Tasa de
Poblacin Valor Actual Demanda
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
s/sensibilidad O&M (m3/a]no) - SC
poblacional

134,601 107,681 1,213,245


136,832 109,466 1.7% 2,004,340
139,021 111,217 1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633 2,029,997
141,247 112,997 1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113 2,056,066
143,510 114,808 1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505 2,082,554
145,813 116,650 1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559 2,109,470
148,154 118,523 1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173 2,136,822
150,425 120,340 1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022 2,163,262
152,732 122,186 1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395 2,190,111
155,077 124,062 1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828 2,217,376
157,460 125,968 1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576 2,256,596
159,882 127,906 1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636 2,300,627
162,228 129,783 1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804 2,316,688
164,610 131,688 1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148 2,335,275
167,029 133,623 1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707 2,356,468
169,485 135,588 1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045 2,380,345
171,979 137,583 1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010 2,422,941
174,395 139,516 1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850 2,469,140
176,847 141,477 1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214 2,497,983
179,334 143,467 1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122 2,527,243
181,858 145,487 1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305 2,556,928
184,420 147,536 1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032 2,587,044
186,916 149,533 1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640 2,623,595
189,448 151,558 1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631 2,658,670
192,015 153,612 1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600 2,702,295
194,618 155,695 1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272 2,734,930
197,259 157,807 1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648 2,764,043
199,818 159,855 1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217 2,789,729
202,413 161,930 1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792 2,802,411
205,042 164,033 1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597 2,815,083
207,706 166,165 1.3% 7,257,888 953,448 2,827,770
174,825,846 64,444,521 73,929,046
Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.78 (0.87) -0.8992

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


1.28 (0.61) -2.1155

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


0.56 (1.53) -0.3659

Por litro
0.03 0.00003
0.06 0.00006
3.60 0.00360
0.51 0.00051
4.21 0.00421

Por litro
0.16 0.0002
0.34 0.0003

2.90 0.0029
3.41 0.0034

Beneficio Beneficio por ano


Demanda (R/h/d) (R/ano)
Demanda Demanda Demanda
(m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
Total 0.1930 70.45
1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32 63.88
3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28 104.89
3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27 104.86 7,835,466
3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23 104.75 7,960,915
3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19 104.63 8,088,498
3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15 104.52 8,218,258
3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16 104.54 8,350,238
3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17 104.57 8,478,222
3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21 104.68 8,608,275
3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25 104.79 8,740,437
3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34 105.04 8,874,748
3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52 105.53 9,011,249
3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53 105.57 9,143,467
4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56 105.65 9,277,720
4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61 105.78 9,414,045
4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63 105.82 9,552,479
4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70 106.03 9,693,061
4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80 106.31 9,829,227
4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80 106.30 9,967,391
4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80 106.30 10,107,590
4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80 106.29 10,249,857
4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77 106.23 10,394,230
4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79 106.27 10,534,930
4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81 106.33 10,677,610
4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87 106.49 10,822,302
4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87 106.49 10,969,039
4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84 106.40 11,117,856
4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79 106.26 11,262,123
5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67 105.95 11,408,330
5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56 105.64 11,556,507
5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46 105.36 11,706,684
127,376,205 201,305,250 281,850,756
VPL
TIR
B/C
Tiempo de Recupero (anos)
VA Beneficio por VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
ano (R/ano) Beneficio Recupero (anos)

(23,066,343)
(56,047,826)
6,843,800 7,835,466 6,843,800 1
6,498,478 7,960,915 13,342,278 2
6,170,676 8,088,498 19,512,954 3
5,859,504 8,218,258 25,372,459 4
5,564,116 8,350,238 30,936,575 5
5,279,811 8,478,222 36,216,386 6
5,010,095 8,608,275 41,226,480 7
4,754,219 8,740,437 45,980,699 8
4,511,472 8,874,748 50,492,171 9
4,281,179 (17,990,968) 54,773,350 10
4,059,809 9,143,467 58,833,159 11
3,849,924 9,277,720 62,683,083 12
3,650,929 9,414,045 66,334,011 13
3,462,258 9,552,479 69,796,270 14
3,283,375 9,693,061 73,079,645 15
3,111,681 9,829,227 76,191,326 16
2,948,991 9,967,391 79,140,318 17
2,794,833 10,107,590 81,935,150 18
2,648,758 10,249,857 84,583,908 19
2,510,343 1,693,293 87,094,251 20
2,377,872 10,534,930 89,472,123 21 89,472,123
2,252,409 10,677,610 91,724,532 22 89,745,738
2,133,580 10,822,302 93,858,112 23 90,019,353
2,021,036 10,969,039 95,879,149 24 90,292,967
1,914,445 11,117,856 97,793,593 25 90,566,582
1,812,418 11,262,123 99,606,011 26 90,840,196
1,715,838 11,408,330 101,321,849 27 91,113,811
1,624,415 11,556,507 102,946,264 28 91,387,426
1,537,873 11,706,684 104,484,138 29 91,661,040
104,484,138 13,183,832 104,484,138 29 91,934,655
13,183,832 92,208,269
8.7% 91,724,532
1.16
de Recupero (anos) 21 anos y 4 meses
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0017
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 977,741
TIR 7.1%
B/C 1.01
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 28 anos y 2 meses

Valor actual
Perodo Ano Inversin
Inversin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.11766
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07536
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.19302

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.07666
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.11766

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.07536


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.19302
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P
59.17 (0.0025) 75.7736 0.0029
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial P inicial
59.17 (0.0025) 46.1900 0.0042
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final P final
59.17 (0.0025) 105.3572 0.0017

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48
total 13.27 100.00 420.70

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40


total 8.89 17.75 1.00

Tasa de
Poblacin Valor Actual Demanda
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
s/sensibilidad O&M (m3/a]no) - SC
poblacional

134,601 94,221 1,213,245


136,832 95,783 1.7% 2,004,340
139,021 97,315 1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633 2,029,997
141,247 98,873 1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113 2,056,066
143,510 100,457 1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505 2,082,554
145,813 102,069 1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559 2,109,470
148,154 103,708 1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173 2,136,822
150,425 105,298 1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022 2,163,262
152,732 106,913 1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395 2,190,111
155,077 108,554 1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828 2,217,376
157,460 110,222 1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576 2,256,596
159,882 111,918 1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636 2,300,627
162,228 113,560 1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804 2,316,688
164,610 115,227 1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148 2,335,275
167,029 116,920 1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707 2,356,468
169,485 118,640 1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045 2,380,345
171,979 120,386 1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010 2,422,941
174,395 122,077 1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850 2,469,140
176,847 123,793 1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214 2,497,983
179,334 125,534 1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122 2,527,243
181,858 127,301 1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305 2,556,928
184,420 129,094 1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032 2,587,044
186,916 130,841 1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640 2,623,595
189,448 132,613 1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631 2,658,670
192,015 134,410 1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600 2,702,295
194,618 136,233 1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272 2,734,930
197,259 138,081 1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648 2,764,043
199,818 139,873 1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217 2,789,729
202,413 141,689 1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792 2,802,411
205,042 143,529 1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597 2,815,083
207,706 145,394 1.3% 7,257,888 953,448 2,827,770
174,825,846 64,444,521 73,929,046
Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
0.78 (0.87) -0.8992

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


1.28 (0.61) -2.1155

Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad


0.56 (1.53) -0.3659

Por litro
0.03 0.00003
0.06 0.00006
3.60 0.00360
0.51 0.00051
4.21 0.00421

Por litro
0.16 0.0002
0.34 0.0003

2.90 0.0029
3.41 0.0034

Beneficio Beneficio por ano


Demanda (R/h/d) (R/ano)
Demanda Demanda Demanda
(m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
Total 0.1930 70.45
1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32 63.88
3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28 104.89
3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27 104.86 6,856,033
3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23 104.75 6,965,801
3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19 104.63 7,077,436
3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15 104.52 7,190,976
3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16 104.54 7,306,459
3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17 104.57 7,418,444
3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21 104.68 7,532,241
3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25 104.79 7,647,883
3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34 105.04 7,765,405
3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52 105.53 7,884,843
3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53 105.57 8,000,533
4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56 105.65 8,118,005
4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61 105.78 8,237,289
4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63 105.82 8,358,419
4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70 106.03 8,481,429
4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80 106.31 8,600,573
4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80 106.30 8,721,467
4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80 106.30 8,844,141
4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80 106.29 8,968,625
4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77 106.23 9,094,951
4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79 106.27 9,218,064
4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81 106.33 9,342,909
4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87 106.49 9,469,514
4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87 106.49 9,597,909
4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84 106.40 9,728,124
4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79 106.26 9,854,358
5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67 105.95 9,982,289
5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56 105.64 10,111,944
5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46 105.36 10,243,349
127,376,205 201,305,250 246,619,412
VPL
TIR
B/C
Tiempo de Recupero (anos)
VA Beneficio por VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
ano (R/ano) Beneficio Recupero (anos)

(23,066,343)
(56,047,826)
5,988,325 6,856,033 5,988,325 1
5,686,168 6,965,801 11,674,493 2
5,399,342 7,077,436 17,073,835 3
5,127,066 7,190,976 22,200,901 4
4,868,602 7,306,459 27,069,503 5
4,619,834 7,418,444 31,689,337 6
4,383,833 7,532,241 36,073,170 7
4,159,941 7,647,883 40,233,112 8
3,947,538 7,765,405 44,180,650 9
3,746,032 (19,117,374) 47,926,681 10
3,552,332 8,000,533 51,479,014 11
3,368,683 8,118,005 54,847,697 12
3,194,563 8,237,289 58,042,260 13
3,029,476 8,358,419 61,071,736 14
2,872,953 8,481,429 63,944,689 15
2,722,721 8,600,573 66,667,410 16
2,580,368 8,721,467 69,247,778 17
2,445,479 8,844,141 71,693,257 18
2,317,663 8,968,625 74,010,920 19
2,196,550 394,014 76,207,470 20
2,080,638 9,218,064 78,288,108 21
1,970,857 9,342,909 80,258,966 22
1,866,883 9,469,514 82,125,848 23
1,768,407 9,597,909 83,894,255 24
1,675,139 9,728,124 85,569,394 25
1,585,865 9,854,358 87,155,260 26
1,501,358 9,982,289 88,656,618 27
1,421,363 10,111,944 90,077,981 28 90,077,981
1,345,639 10,243,349 91,423,620 29 90,317,394
91,423,620 977,741 91,423,620 29 90,556,807
977,741 90,796,220
7.1% 91,035,632
1.01 91,275,045
de Recupero (anos) 28 anos y 2 meses 91,514,458
91,753,871
91,993,283
92,232,696
92,472,109
91,423,620
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0015
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 45,548,695
TIR 12.4%
B/C 1.54
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 13 anos y 7 meses

Valor actual
Perodo Ano Inversin
Inversin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.12533
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.08027
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.20560

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.06899
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.12533

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.08027


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.20560
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P Var Q/ Q
59.17 (0.0027) 75.7736 0.0029 0.78
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial P inicial Var Q/ Q
59.17 (0.0027) 46.1900 0.0042 1.28
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final P final Var Q/ Q
59.17 (0.0027) 105.3572 0.0015 0.56

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85 0.03
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12 0.06
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26 3.60
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48 0.51
total 13.27 100.00 420.70 4.21

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22 0.16
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38 0.34

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40 2.90


total 8.89 17.75 1.00 3.41

Tasa de
Valor Actual Demanda Demanda
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
O&M (m3/a]no) - SC (m3/ano) - PF
poblacional

134,601 1,213,245 1,925,382


136,832 1.7% 2,004,340 3,234,124
139,021 1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633 2,029,997 3,290,937
141,247 1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113 2,056,066 3,344,212
143,510 1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505 2,082,554 3,398,320
145,813 1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559 2,109,470 3,453,276
148,154 1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173 2,136,822 3,516,398
150,425 1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022 2,163,262 3,577,921
152,732 1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395 2,190,111 3,645,414
155,077 1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828 2,217,376 3,714,177
157,460 1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576 2,256,596 3,780,286
159,882 1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636 2,300,627 3,857,957
162,228 1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804 2,316,688 3,934,463
164,610 1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148 2,335,275 4,012,604
167,029 1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707 2,356,468 4,092,423
169,485 1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045 2,380,345 4,166,049
171,979 1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010 2,422,941 4,232,971
174,395 1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850 2,469,140 4,297,949
176,847 1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214 2,497,983 4,363,882
179,334 1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122 2,527,243 4,430,787
181,858 1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305 2,556,928 4,498,680
184,420 1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032 2,587,044 4,563,484
186,916 1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640 2,623,595 4,626,617
189,448 1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631 2,658,670 4,693,572
192,015 1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600 2,702,295 4,761,321
194,618 1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272 2,734,930 4,829,873
197,259 1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648 2,764,043 4,897,052
199,818 1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217 2,789,729 4,960,351
202,413 1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792 2,802,411 5,025,227
205,042 1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597 2,815,083 5,090,849
207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 953,448 2,827,770 5,159,643
174,825,846 64,444,521 73,929,046 127,376,205
Var P/ P Elasticidad
(0.95) -0.8203

Var P/ P Elasticidad
(0.64) -1.9861

Var P/ P Elasticidad
(1.82) -0.3092

Por litro
0.00003
0.00006
0.00360
0.00051
0.00421

Por litro
0.0002
0.0003

0.0029
0.0034

Beneficio Beneficio por ano


Demanda (R/h/d) (R/ano)
Demanda Demanda VA Beneficio por
(m3/ano) -
(m3/h/ano) (l/h/da) ano (R/ano)
Total 0.2056 75.04
3,138,628 23.32 63.88
5,238,464 38.28 104.89
5,320,934 38.27 104.86 10,432,467 9,112,120
5,400,278 38.23 104.75 10,599,494 8,652,345
5,480,874 38.19 104.63 10,769,364 8,215,896
5,562,746 38.15 104.52 10,942,132 7,801,589
5,653,220 38.16 104.54 11,117,856 7,408,297
5,741,183 38.17 104.57 11,288,259 7,029,760
5,835,525 38.21 104.68 11,461,417 6,670,649
5,931,554 38.25 104.79 11,637,383 6,329,965
6,036,882 38.34 105.04 11,816,210 6,006,762
6,158,584 38.52 105.53 11,997,953 5,700,141
6,251,151 38.53 105.57 12,173,993 5,405,398
6,347,880 38.56 105.65 12,352,743 5,125,949
6,448,891 38.61 105.78 12,534,252 4,860,999
6,546,394 38.63 105.82 12,718,569 4,609,795
6,655,912 38.70 106.03 12,905,746 4,371,623
6,767,089 38.80 106.31 13,087,043 4,143,023
6,861,865 38.80 106.30 13,271,001 3,926,410
6,958,030 38.80 106.30 13,457,667 3,721,157
7,055,608 38.80 106.29 13,647,088 3,526,667
7,150,528 38.77 106.23 13,839,312 3,342,375
7,250,212 38.79 106.27 14,026,646 3,165,999
7,352,242 38.81 106.33 14,216,616 2,998,951
7,463,616 38.87 106.49 14,409,264 2,840,738
7,564,803 38.87 106.49 14,604,636 2,690,892
7,661,096 38.84 106.40 14,802,777 2,548,971
7,750,080 38.79 106.26 14,994,861 2,413,129
7,827,638 38.67 105.95 15,189,527 2,284,538
7,905,932 38.56 105.64 15,386,816 2,162,814
7,987,414 38.46 105.36 15,586,768 2,047,589
201,305,250 375,267,858 139,114,541
VPL
TIR
B/C
Tiempo de Recupero (anos)
VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
Beneficio Recupero (anos)

(23,066,343)
(56,047,826)
10,432,467 9,112,120 1
10,599,494 17,764,465 2
10,769,364 25,980,361 3
10,942,132 33,781,950 4
11,117,856 41,190,247 5
11,288,259 48,220,007 6
11,461,417 54,890,656 7
11,637,383 61,220,621 8
11,816,210 67,227,383 9
(15,004,264) 72,927,524 10
12,173,993 78,332,923 11
12,352,743 83,458,872 12
12,534,252 88,319,871 13 88,319,871 1
12,718,569 92,929,666 14 88,684,173 2
12,905,746 97,301,289 15 89,048,475 3
13,087,043 101,444,311 16 89,412,777 4
13,271,001 105,370,721 17 89,777,079 5
13,457,667 109,091,878 18 90,141,380 6
13,647,088 112,618,545 19 90,505,682 7
5,138,375 115,960,920 20 90,869,984 8
14,026,646 119,126,919 21 91,234,286 9
14,216,616 122,125,870 22 91,598,588 10
14,409,264 124,966,607 23 91,962,890 11
14,604,636 127,657,500 24 92,929,666 12
14,802,777 130,206,471 25 97,301,289 12
14,994,861 132,619,600 26
15,189,527 134,904,138 27
15,386,816 137,066,952 28
15,586,768 139,114,541 29
45,548,695 139,114,541 29
45,548,695
12.4%
1.54
13 anos y 7 meses
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0018
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 29,643,332
TIR 10.6%
B/C 1.35
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 16 anos y 5 meses

Valor actual
Perodo Ano Inversin
Inversin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.10999
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07045
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.18044

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.08433
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.10999

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.07045


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.18044
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P Var Q/ Q
59.17 (0.0024) 75.7736 0.0030 0.78
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial P inicial Var Q/ Q
59.17 (0.0024) 46.1900 0.0042 1.28
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final P final Var Q/ Q
59.17 (0.0024) 105.3572 0.0018 0.56

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85 0.03
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12 0.06
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26 3.60
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48 0.51
total 13.27 100.00 420.70 4.21

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22 0.16
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38 0.34

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40 2.90


total 8.89 17.75 1.00 3.41

Tasa de
Valor Actual Demanda Demanda
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
O&M (m3/a]no) - SC (m3/ano) - PF
poblacional

134,601 1,213,245 1,925,382


136,832 1.7% 2,004,340 3,234,124
139,021 1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633 2,029,997 3,290,937
141,247 1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113 2,056,066 3,344,212
143,510 1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505 2,082,554 3,398,320
145,813 1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559 2,109,470 3,453,276
148,154 1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173 2,136,822 3,516,398
150,425 1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022 2,163,262 3,577,921
152,732 1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395 2,190,111 3,645,414
155,077 1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828 2,217,376 3,714,177
157,460 1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576 2,256,596 3,780,286
159,882 1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636 2,300,627 3,857,957
162,228 1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804 2,316,688 3,934,463
164,610 1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148 2,335,275 4,012,604
167,029 1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707 2,356,468 4,092,423
169,485 1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045 2,380,345 4,166,049
171,979 1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010 2,422,941 4,232,971
174,395 1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850 2,469,140 4,297,949
176,847 1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214 2,497,983 4,363,882
179,334 1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122 2,527,243 4,430,787
181,858 1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305 2,556,928 4,498,680
184,420 1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032 2,587,044 4,563,484
186,916 1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640 2,623,595 4,626,617
189,448 1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631 2,658,670 4,693,572
192,015 1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600 2,702,295 4,761,321
194,618 1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272 2,734,930 4,829,873
197,259 1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648 2,764,043 4,897,052
199,818 1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217 2,789,729 4,960,351
202,413 1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792 2,802,411 5,025,227
205,042 1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597 2,815,083 5,090,849
207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 953,448 2,827,770 5,159,643
174,825,846 64,444,521 73,929,046 127,376,205
Var P/ P Elasticidad
(0.79) -0.9890

Var P/ P Elasticidad
(0.57) -2.2630

Var P/ P Elasticidad
(1.30) -0.4305

Por litro
0.00003
0.00006
0.00360
0.00051
0.00421

Por litro
0.0002
0.0003

0.0029
0.0034

Beneficio Beneficio por ano


Demanda (R/h/d) (R/ano)
Demanda Demanda VA Beneficio por
(m3/ano) -
(m3/h/ano) (l/h/da) ano (R/ano)
Total 0.1804 65.86
3,138,628 23.32 63.88
5,238,464 38.28 104.89
5,320,934 38.27 104.86 9,156,199 7,997,379
5,400,278 38.23 104.75 9,302,793 7,593,850
5,480,874 38.19 104.63 9,451,881 7,210,795
5,562,746 38.15 104.52 9,603,513 6,847,172
5,653,220 38.16 104.54 9,757,740 6,501,994
5,741,183 38.17 104.57 9,907,297 6,169,766
5,835,525 38.21 104.68 10,059,271 5,854,588
5,931,554 38.25 104.79 10,213,710 5,555,582
6,036,882 38.34 105.04 10,370,660 5,271,918
6,158,584 38.52 105.53 10,530,169 5,002,808
6,251,151 38.53 105.57 10,684,674 4,744,123
6,347,880 38.56 105.65 10,841,556 4,498,860
6,448,891 38.61 105.78 11,000,860 4,266,323
6,546,394 38.63 105.82 11,162,629 4,045,850
6,655,912 38.70 106.03 11,326,907 3,836,815
6,767,089 38.80 106.31 11,486,024 3,636,181
6,861,865 38.80 106.30 11,647,478 3,446,068
6,958,030 38.80 106.30 11,811,308 3,265,925
7,055,608 38.80 106.29 11,977,556 3,095,228
7,150,528 38.77 106.23 12,146,263 2,933,482
7,250,212 38.79 106.27 12,310,680 2,778,683
7,352,242 38.81 106.33 12,477,410 2,632,071
7,463,616 38.87 106.49 12,646,490 2,493,213
7,564,803 38.87 106.49 12,817,961 2,361,699
7,661,096 38.84 106.40 12,991,862 2,237,140
7,750,080 38.79 106.26 13,160,447 2,117,916
7,827,638 38.67 105.95 13,331,299 2,005,057
7,905,932 38.56 105.64 13,504,452 1,898,224
7,987,414 38.46 105.36 13,679,943 1,797,095
201,305,250 329,359,032 122,095,803
VPL
TIR
B/C
Tiempo de Recupero (anos)
VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
Beneficio Recupero (anos)

(23,066,343)
(56,047,826)
9,156,199 7,997,379 1
9,302,793 15,591,229 2
9,451,881 22,802,024 3
9,603,513 29,649,196 4
9,757,740 36,151,190 5
9,907,297 42,320,957 6
10,059,271 48,175,544 7
10,213,710 53,731,126 8
10,370,660 59,003,044 9
(16,472,048) 64,005,851 10
10,684,674 68,749,974 11
10,841,556 73,248,835 12
11,000,860 77,515,158 13
11,162,629 81,561,008 14
11,326,907 85,397,823 15
11,486,024 89,034,004 16 89,034,004 1
11,647,478 92,480,073 17 89,353,739 2
11,811,308 95,745,998 18 89,673,474 3
11,977,556 98,841,226 19 89,993,208 4
3,445,326 101,774,707 20 90,312,943 5
12,310,680 104,553,390 21 90,632,677 6
12,477,410 107,185,460 22 90,952,412 7
12,646,490 109,678,673 23 91,272,147 8
12,817,961 112,040,372 24 91,591,881 9
12,991,862 114,277,512 25 91,911,616 10
13,160,447 116,395,428 26 92,231,350 11
13,331,299 118,400,485 27 92,480,073 12
13,504,452 120,298,709 28 95,745,998 12
13,679,943 122,095,803 29
29,643,332 122,095,803 29
29,643,332
10.6%
1.35
16 anos y 5 meses
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0020
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 21,690,651
TIR 9.7%
B/C 1.26
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 18 anos y 5 meses

Valor actual
Perodo Ano Inversin
Inversin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.10233
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.06554
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.16787

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.09199
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.10233

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.06554


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.16787
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P Var Q/ Q
59.17 (0.0022) 75.7736 0.0031 0.78
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial P inicial Var Q/ Q
59.17 (0.0022) 46.1900 0.0042 1.28
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final P final Var Q/ Q
59.17 (0.0022) 105.3572 0.0020 0.56

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85 0.03
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12 0.06
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26 3.60
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48 0.51
total 13.27 100.00 420.70 4.21

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22 0.16
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38 0.34

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40 2.90


total 8.89 17.75 1.00 3.41

Tasa de
Valor Actual Demanda Demanda
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
O&M (m3/a]no) - SC (m3/ano) - PF
poblacional

134,601 1,213,245 1,925,382


136,832 1.7% 2,004,340 3,234,124
139,021 1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633 2,029,997 3,290,937
141,247 1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113 2,056,066 3,344,212
143,510 1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505 2,082,554 3,398,320
145,813 1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559 2,109,470 3,453,276
148,154 1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173 2,136,822 3,516,398
150,425 1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022 2,163,262 3,577,921
152,732 1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395 2,190,111 3,645,414
155,077 1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828 2,217,376 3,714,177
157,460 1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576 2,256,596 3,780,286
159,882 1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636 2,300,627 3,857,957
162,228 1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804 2,316,688 3,934,463
164,610 1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148 2,335,275 4,012,604
167,029 1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707 2,356,468 4,092,423
169,485 1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045 2,380,345 4,166,049
171,979 1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010 2,422,941 4,232,971
174,395 1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850 2,469,140 4,297,949
176,847 1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214 2,497,983 4,363,882
179,334 1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122 2,527,243 4,430,787
181,858 1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305 2,556,928 4,498,680
184,420 1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032 2,587,044 4,563,484
186,916 1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640 2,623,595 4,626,617
189,448 1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631 2,658,670 4,693,572
192,015 1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600 2,702,295 4,761,321
194,618 1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272 2,734,930 4,829,873
197,259 1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648 2,764,043 4,897,052
199,818 1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217 2,789,729 4,960,351
202,413 1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792 2,802,411 5,025,227
205,042 1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597 2,815,083 5,090,849
207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 953,448 2,827,770 5,159,643
174,825,846 64,444,521 73,929,046 127,376,205
Var P/ P Elasticidad
(0.71) -1.0924

Var P/ P Elasticidad
(0.53) -2.4325

Var P/ P Elasticidad
(1.11) -0.5049

Por litro
0.00003
0.00006
0.00360
0.00051
0.00421

Por litro
0.0002
0.0003

0.0029
0.0034

Beneficio Beneficio por ano


Demanda (R/h/d) (R/ano)
Demanda Demanda VA Beneficio por
(m3/ano) -
(m3/h/ano) (l/h/da) ano (R/ano)
Total 0.1679 61.27
3,138,628 23.32 63.88
5,238,464 38.28 104.89
5,320,934 38.27 104.86 8,518,065 7,440,008
5,400,278 38.23 104.75 8,654,442 7,064,603
5,480,874 38.19 104.63 8,793,140 6,708,244
5,562,746 38.15 104.52 8,934,204 6,369,964
5,653,220 38.16 104.54 9,077,682 6,048,843
5,741,183 38.17 104.57 9,216,815 5,739,769
5,835,525 38.21 104.68 9,358,199 5,446,557
5,931,554 38.25 104.79 9,501,874 5,168,390
6,036,882 38.34 105.04 9,647,886 4,904,496
6,158,584 38.52 105.53 9,796,278 4,654,141
6,251,151 38.53 105.57 9,940,014 4,413,485
6,347,880 38.56 105.65 10,085,963 4,185,316
6,448,891 38.61 105.78 10,234,164 3,968,985
6,546,394 38.63 105.82 10,384,658 3,763,878
6,655,912 38.70 106.03 10,537,487 3,569,412
6,767,089 38.80 106.31 10,685,515 3,382,760
6,861,865 38.80 106.30 10,835,716 3,205,897
6,958,030 38.80 106.30 10,988,128 3,038,309
7,055,608 38.80 106.29 11,142,790 2,879,509
7,150,528 38.77 106.23 11,299,739 2,729,035
7,250,212 38.79 106.27 11,452,697 2,585,024
7,352,242 38.81 106.33 11,607,806 2,448,631
7,463,616 38.87 106.49 11,765,103 2,319,450
7,564,803 38.87 106.49 11,924,624 2,197,102
7,661,096 38.84 106.40 12,086,405 2,081,224
7,750,080 38.79 106.26 12,243,241 1,970,309
7,827,638 38.67 105.95 12,402,185 1,865,316
7,905,932 38.56 105.64 12,563,270 1,765,929
7,987,414 38.46 105.36 12,726,530 1,671,848
201,305,250 306,404,619 113,586,434
VPL
TIR
B/C
Tiempo de Recupero (anos)
VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
Beneficio Recupero (anos)

(23,066,343)
(56,047,826)
8,518,065 7,440,008 1
8,654,442 14,504,611 2
8,793,140 21,212,855 3
8,934,204 27,582,819 4
9,077,682 33,631,662 5
9,216,815 39,371,432 6
9,358,199 44,817,988 7
9,501,874 49,986,378 8
9,647,886 54,890,874 9
(17,205,939) 59,545,015 10
9,940,014 63,958,500 11
10,085,963 68,143,816 12
10,234,164 72,112,801 13
10,384,658 75,876,679 14
10,537,487 79,446,091 15
10,685,515 82,828,851 16
10,835,716 86,034,748 17
10,988,128 89,073,057 18 89,073,057 1
11,142,790 91,952,566 19 89,370,508 2
2,598,802 94,681,601 20 89,667,959 3
11,452,697 97,266,625 21 89,965,410 4
11,607,806 99,715,256 22 90,262,861 5
11,765,103 102,034,706 23 90,560,312 6
11,924,624 104,231,808 24 90,857,763 7
12,086,405 106,313,033 25 91,155,214 8
12,243,241 108,283,342 26 91,452,665 9
12,402,185 110,148,658 27 91,750,116 10
12,563,270 111,914,587 28 92,047,567 11
12,726,530 113,586,434 29 91,952,566 12
21,690,651 113,586,434 29 94,681,601 12
21,690,651
9.7%
1.26
18 anos y 5 meses
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
SSP SCP
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0022
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC I 90,377,438

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 7,283,193
Media Geomtrica CO&M 5,973,255

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

CAE por litro SCP 0.0017

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 13,737,970
TIR 8.7%
B/C 1.16
Tiempo de Recupero (anos) 21 anos y 2 meses

Valor actual
Perodo Ano Inversin
Inversin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146
2 2010
3 2011
4 2012
5 2013
6 2014
7 2015
8 2016
9 2017
10 2018
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559
12 2020
13 2021
14 2022
15 2023
16 2024
17 2025
18 2026
19 2027
20 2028
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390
22 2030
23 2031
24 2032
25 2033
26 2034
27 2035
28 2036
29 2037
30 2038
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Mtodo 1
Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.09466
Excedente (R/h/d) 0.06063
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.15529

Mtodo 2
Costos SSP (R/h/d) 0.19432
Costos SCP (R/h/d) p/cantidad inicial 0.09966
DIFERENCIAL DE COSTOS (SSP-SCP) 0.09466

Excedente del Consumidor (R/h/d) 0.06063


BENEFICIO NETO SOCIAL (R/h/d) 0.15529
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (en el arco)
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P Var Q/ Q
59.17 (0.0020) 75.7736 0.0032 0.78
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SSP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q inicial P inicial Var Q/ Q
59.17 (0.0020) 46.1900 0.0042 1.28
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda (SCP)
Variacin Q Variacin P Q final P final Var Q/ Q
59.17 (0.0020) 105.3572 0.0022 0.56

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85 0.03
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12 0.06
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26 3.60
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48 0.51
total 13.27 100.00 420.70 4.21

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto (excluyendo Compra)


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22 0.16
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38 0.34

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40 2.90


total 8.89 17.75 1.00 3.41

Tasa de
Valor Actual Demanda Demanda
Poblacin crecimiento O&M
O&M (m3/a]no) - SC (m3/ano) - PF
poblacional

134,601 1,213,245 1,925,382


136,832 1.7% 2,004,340 3,234,124
139,021 1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633 2,029,997 3,290,937
141,247 1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113 2,056,066 3,344,212
143,510 1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505 2,082,554 3,398,320
145,813 1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559 2,109,470 3,453,276
148,154 1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173 2,136,822 3,516,398
150,425 1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022 2,163,262 3,577,921
152,732 1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395 2,190,111 3,645,414
155,077 1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828 2,217,376 3,714,177
157,460 1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576 2,256,596 3,780,286
159,882 1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636 2,300,627 3,857,957
162,228 1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804 2,316,688 3,934,463
164,610 1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148 2,335,275 4,012,604
167,029 1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707 2,356,468 4,092,423
169,485 1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045 2,380,345 4,166,049
171,979 1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010 2,422,941 4,232,971
174,395 1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850 2,469,140 4,297,949
176,847 1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214 2,497,983 4,363,882
179,334 1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122 2,527,243 4,430,787
181,858 1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305 2,556,928 4,498,680
184,420 1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032 2,587,044 4,563,484
186,916 1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640 2,623,595 4,626,617
189,448 1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631 2,658,670 4,693,572
192,015 1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600 2,702,295 4,761,321
194,618 1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272 2,734,930 4,829,873
197,259 1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648 2,764,043 4,897,052
199,818 1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217 2,789,729 4,960,351
202,413 1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792 2,802,411 5,025,227
205,042 1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597 2,815,083 5,090,849
207,706 1.3% 7,257,888 953,448 2,827,770 5,159,643
174,825,846 64,444,521 73,929,046 127,376,205
Var P/ P Elasticidad
(0.64) -1.2125

Var P/ P Elasticidad
(0.49) -2.6295

Var P/ P Elasticidad
(0.95) -0.5912

Por litro
0.00003
0.00006
0.00360
0.00051
0.00421

Por litro
0.0002
0.0003

0.0029
0.0034

Beneficio Beneficio por ano


Demanda (R/h/d) (R/ano)
Demanda Demanda VA Beneficio por
(m3/ano) -
(m3/h/ano) (l/h/da) ano (R/ano)
Total 0.1553 56.68
3,138,628 23.32 63.88
5,238,464 38.28 104.89
5,320,934 38.27 104.86 7,879,931 6,882,637
5,400,278 38.23 104.75 8,006,092 6,535,356
5,480,874 38.19 104.63 8,134,399 6,205,694
5,562,746 38.15 104.52 8,264,895 5,892,756
5,653,220 38.16 104.54 8,397,624 5,595,692
5,741,183 38.17 104.57 8,526,334 5,309,773
5,835,525 38.21 104.68 8,657,126 5,038,526
5,931,554 38.25 104.79 8,790,038 4,781,198
6,036,882 38.34 105.04 8,925,111 4,537,074
6,158,584 38.52 105.53 9,062,386 4,305,474
6,251,151 38.53 105.57 9,195,354 4,082,847
6,347,880 38.56 105.65 9,330,369 3,871,771
6,448,891 38.61 105.78 9,467,468 3,671,647
6,546,394 38.63 105.82 9,606,688 3,481,906
6,655,912 38.70 106.03 9,748,068 3,302,008
6,767,089 38.80 106.31 9,885,006 3,129,340
6,861,865 38.80 106.30 10,023,954 2,965,726
6,958,030 38.80 106.30 10,164,949 2,810,693
7,055,608 38.80 106.29 10,308,024 2,663,789
7,150,528 38.77 106.23 10,453,215 2,524,588
7,250,212 38.79 106.27 10,594,714 2,391,366
7,352,242 38.81 106.33 10,738,203 2,265,191
7,463,616 38.87 106.49 10,883,716 2,145,688
7,564,803 38.87 106.49 11,031,286 2,032,505
7,661,096 38.84 106.40 11,180,947 1,925,309
7,750,080 38.79 106.26 11,326,034 1,822,703
7,827,638 38.67 105.95 11,473,070 1,725,575
7,905,932 38.56 105.64 11,622,088 1,633,633
7,987,414 38.46 105.36 11,773,117 1,546,600
201,305,250 283,450,206 105,077,065
VPL
TIR
B/C
Tiempo de Recupero (anos)
VA Acumulado Tiempo de
Beneficio Neto
Beneficio Recupero (anos)

(23,066,343)
(56,047,826)
7,879,931 6,882,637 1
8,006,092 13,417,993 2
8,134,399 19,623,686 3
8,264,895 25,516,442 4
8,397,624 31,112,134 5
8,526,334 36,421,907 6
8,657,126 41,460,433 7
8,790,038 46,241,631 8
8,925,111 50,778,704 9
(17,939,831) 55,084,179 10
9,195,354 59,167,026 11
9,330,369 63,038,797 12
9,467,468 66,710,444 13
9,606,688 70,192,350 14
9,748,068 73,494,358 15
9,885,006 76,623,698 16
10,023,954 79,589,424 17
10,164,949 82,400,117 18
10,308,024 85,063,906 19
1,752,278 87,588,494 20
10,594,714 89,979,861 21 89,979,861 1
10,738,203 92,245,051 22 90,255,028 2
10,883,716 94,390,739 23 90,530,196 3
11,031,286 96,423,245 24 90,805,363 4
11,180,947 98,348,554 25 91,080,530 5
11,326,034 100,171,256 26 91,355,697 6
11,473,070 101,896,832 27 91,630,865 7
11,622,088 103,530,465 28 91,906,032 8
11,773,117 105,077,065 29 92,181,199 9
13,737,970 105,077,065 29 92,456,367 10
13,737,970 92,731,534 11
8.7% 92,245,051 12
1.16 94,390,739 12
21 anos y 2 meses
Demanda (l/h/d) - 2006 46.19
Costo (l/h/d) - 2006 0.0604
Oferta (l/h/d) - 2036 76.10
Costo (l/h/d) - 2006 0.0023
Costos de la situacin sin proyecto
R/m3
tiempo 30 Carros pipa 0.74
tasa de inters 0.07 pozo 0.90
Costo Total 141,653,333 busca 4.38
VAC 108,352,342 compra 7.25
total 13.27
Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I+O&M)
FRC 0.08059
CAE 8,731,726
CAE por litro CP 0.0023

Dotacin 2036 (M3/ano) 3,745,853


Dotacin 2036 (l/ano) 3,745,853,370

tasa de
Ano Inversin VAC I Poblacin
crecimiento
0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343 94,356
1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146 95,928 1.7%
2 2010 97,373 1.5%
3 2011 98,846 1.5%
4 2012 100,347 1.5%
5 2013 101,877 1.5%
6 2014 103,436 1.5%
7 2015 104,868 1.4%
8 2016 106,324 1.4%
9 2017 107,806 1.4%
10 2018 109,313 1.4%
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559 110,847 1.4%
12 2020 112,252 1.3%
13 2021 113,680 1.3%
14 2022 115,130 1.3%
15 2023 116,603 1.3%
16 2024 118,100 1.3%
17 2025 119,471 1.2%
18 2026 120,862 1.2%
19 2027 122,273 1.2%
20 2028 123,704 1.2%
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390 125,156 1.2%
22 2030 126,489 1.1%
23 2031 127,839 1.1%
24 2032 129,208 1.1%
25 2033 130,594 1.1%
26 2034 131,999 1.1%
27 2035 133,422 1.1%
28 2036 134,865 1.1%
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

COSTO SIN PROYECTO (R/l/h/d): 2.791908


COSTO CON PROYECTO (R/l/h/d): 0.177381
EXCEDENTE NETO (R/l/h/d) 0.868947 29.91 0.058113
BENEFICIO NETO POR ANO (R/l/h/d) 3.483474

Economa de recursos (R/l/h/d) 2.684238


Costo incremental (R/l/h/d) 0.069711
Excedente (R/l/h/d) 0.868947
BENEFICIO NETO POR ANO (R/l/h/d) 3.483474
in sin proyecto
Peso relativo Por litro R/m3
3.85 2.85 0.03 0.00003 Carros pipa 0.74
6.80 6.12 0.06 0.00006 pozo 0.90
82.25 360.26 3.60 0.00360
7.10 51.48 0.51 0.00051 compra 7.25
100.00 420.70 4.21 0.00421 total 8.89

Demanda SP
Demanda SP
2007
2007 (m3/ano)
(m3/h/ano)
Demanda Demanda Demanda
O&M VAC O&M
(m3/ano) (m3/h/ano) (l/h/da) 355,491 32.36
1,856,429 19.67 53.90
1,893,044 19.73 54.07
1,582,180 1,381,938 1,926,794 19.79 54.21
1,570,276 1,281,813 1,961,262 19.84 54.36
1,574,373 1,201,082 1,996,465 19.90 54.51
1,578,558 1,125,490 2,032,420 19.95 54.66
1,582,833 1,054,709 2,069,146 20.00 54.81
1,586,769 988,160 2,102,958 20.05 54.94
1,590,781 925,849 2,137,427 20.10 55.08
1,594,871 867,504 2,172,566 20.15 55.21
1,599,041 812,871 2,208,390 20.20 55.35
1,603,292 761,713 2,244,915 20.25 55.49
1,607,197 713,615 2,278,460 20.30 55.61
1,611,171 668,579 2,312,598 20.34 55.73
1,615,215 626,408 2,347,341 20.39 55.86
1,619,330 586,920 2,382,700 20.43 55.98
1,623,520 549,942 2,418,689 20.48 56.11
1,627,364 515,182 2,451,719 20.52 56.22
1,631,271 482,634 2,485,281 20.56 56.34
1,635,240 452,158 2,519,384 20.60 56.45
1,639,274 423,620 2,554,038 20.65 56.57
1,643,373 396,896 2,589,253 20.69 56.68
1,647,145 371,782 2,621,662 20.73 56.78
1,650,973 348,268 2,654,546 20.76 56.89
1,654,857 326,249 2,687,913 20.80 56.99
1,658,798 305,632 2,721,772 20.84 57.10
1,662,797 286,326 2,756,129 20.88 57.21
1,666,855 268,248 2,790,994 20.92 57.31
1,670,973 251,318 2,826,374 20.96 57.42
43,728,328 17,974,904

1.737893 0.868947
Peso relativo Por litro
3.85 22% 2.85 0.00
6.80 38% 6.12 0.01

7.10 40% 51.48 0.05


17.75 100% 60.44 0.06

Oferta
Demanda SP Oferta 2006 Oferta Oferta
2006
2007 (l/h/ano) (m3/ano) 2006 (l/d) 2006 (l/h/d)
(m3/d)
Oferta
Oferta (l/d) Oferta (l/h/d)
88.65 (m3/dia) 562,489 1,541 1,541,067 140.26
8,413 8,413,266 89.17
7,924 7,923,839 82.60
7,493 7,492,737 76.95
7,121 7,121,376 72.05
7,249 7,249,198 72.24
7,380 7,379,753 72.44
7,513 7,513,106 72.64
7,636 7,635,878 72.81
7,761 7,761,033 72.99
7,889 7,888,624 73.17
8,019 8,018,703 73.36
8,151 8,151,326 73.54
8,273 8,273,127 73.70
8,397 8,397,082 73.87
8,523 8,523,234 74.03
8,652 8,651,626 74.20
8,782 8,782,302 74.36
8,902 8,902,235 74.51
9,024 9,024,099 74.66
9,148 9,147,927 74.82
9,274 9,273,757 74.97
9,402 9,401,622 75.12
9,519 9,519,299 75.26
9,639 9,638,702 75.40
9,760 9,759,860 75.54
9,883 9,882,800 75.68
10,008 10,007,552 75.82
10,134 10,134,146 75.96
10,263 10,262,612 76.10
Beneficio Neto
por ano (R/l/h/d)

3.4835
2006 2038
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0033
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto

Horizonte 30 Carros pipa


Tasa de inters 7% pozo
Costo Total 141,653,333 busca
VAC 154,821,959 compra
total
Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I+O&M)
FRC 0.08059
CAE 12,476,545 Carros pipa
CAE por litro CP 0.0033 pozo

Dotacin 2036 (M3/ano) 3,745,853 compra


Dotacin 2036 (l/ano) 3,745,853,370 total

Ano Inversin VAC I Poblacin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343 134,601


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146 136,832
2 2010 139,021
3 2011 141,247
4 2012 143,510
5 2013 145,813
6 2014 148,154
7 2015 150,425
8 2016 152,732
9 2017 155,077
10 2018 157,460
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559 159,882
12 2020 162,228
13 2021 164,610
14 2022 167,029
15 2023 169,485
16 2024 171,979
17 2025 174,395
18 2026 176,847
19 2027 179,334
20 2028 181,858
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390 184,420
22 2030 186,916
23 2031 189,448
24 2032 192,015
25 2033 194,618
26 2034 197,259
27 2035 199,818
28 2036 202,413
29 2037 205,042
30 2038 207,706
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.04047


Excedente (R/h/d) 0.02592
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.06639
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
59.17 (0.0009) 75.7736 0.0038 0.78 (0.23) -3.3586

tos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo Por litro
0.74 3.85 2.85 0.03 0.00003
0.90 6.80 6.12 0.06 0.00006
4.38 82.25 360.26 3.60 0.00360
7.25 7.10 51.48 0.51 0.00051
13.27 100.00 420.70 4.21 0.00421

R/m3 Peso relativo Por litro


0.74 3.85 0.22 0.16 0.0002
0.90 6.80 0.38 0.34 0.0003

7.25 7.10 0.40 2.90 0.0029


8.89 17.75 1.00 3.41 0.0034

Demanda
tasa de Demanda Demanda Demanda
O&M VAC O&M (m3/ano) -
crecimiento (m3/ano) - SC (m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano)
Total
1,213,245 1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32
1.7% 2,004,340 3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28
1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633 2,029,997 3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27
1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113 2,056,066 3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23
1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505 2,082,554 3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19
1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559 2,109,470 3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15
1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173 2,136,822 3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16
1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022 2,163,262 3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17
1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395 2,190,111 3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21
1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828 2,217,376 3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25
1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576 2,256,596 3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34
1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636 2,300,627 3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52
1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804 2,316,688 3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53
1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148 2,335,275 4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56
1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707 2,356,468 4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61
1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045 2,380,345 4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63
1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010 2,422,941 4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70
1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850 2,469,140 4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80
1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214 2,497,983 4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80
1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122 2,527,243 4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80
1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305 2,556,928 4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80
1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032 2,587,044 4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77
1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640 2,623,595 4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79
1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631 2,658,670 4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81
1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600 2,702,295 4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87
1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272 2,734,930 4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87
1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648 2,764,043 4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84
1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217 2,789,729 4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79
1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792 2,802,411 5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67
1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597 2,815,083 5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56
1.3% 7,257,888 953,448 2,827,770 5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46
174,825,846 64,444,521 73,929,046 127,376,205 201,305,250
Beneficio Neto Beneficio Neto por
(R/h/d) ano (R/ano)

Demanda Oferta
Oferta (l/d) Oferta (l/h/d) 0.0664 24.23
(l/h/da) (m3/dia)
63.88 8,413 8,413,266 62.51
104.89 7,924 7,923,839 57.91
104.86 7,493 7,492,737 53.90 3,369,055
104.75 7,121 7,121,376 50.42 3,422,995
104.63 7,249 7,249,198 50.51 3,477,853
104.52 7,380 7,379,753 50.61 3,533,646
104.54 7,513 7,513,106 50.71 3,590,394
104.57 7,636 7,635,878 50.76 3,645,424
104.68 7,761 7,761,033 50.81 3,701,344
104.79 7,889 7,888,624 50.87 3,758,170
105.04 8,019 8,018,703 50.93 3,815,921
105.53 8,151 8,151,326 50.98 3,874,612
105.57 8,273 8,273,127 51.00 3,931,463
105.65 8,397 8,397,082 51.01 3,989,188
105.78 8,523 8,523,234 51.03 4,047,805
105.82 8,652 8,651,626 51.05 4,107,328
106.03 8,782 8,782,302 51.07 4,167,775
106.31 8,902 8,902,235 51.05 4,226,323
106.30 9,024 9,024,099 51.03 4,285,730
106.30 9,148 9,147,927 51.01 4,346,012
106.29 9,274 9,273,757 50.99 4,407,183
106.23 9,402 9,401,622 50.98 4,469,260
106.27 9,519 9,519,299 50.93 4,529,758
106.33 9,639 9,638,702 50.88 4,591,106
106.49 9,760 9,759,860 50.83 4,653,320
106.49 9,883 9,882,800 50.78 4,716,414
106.40 10,008 10,007,552 50.73 4,780,401
106.26 10,134 10,134,146 50.72 4,842,433
105.95 10,263 10,262,612 50.70 4,905,298
105.64 10,263 10,262,612 50.05 4,969,010
105.36 10,263 10,262,612 49.41 5,033,583
121,188,804
VA BN

2,942,663
2,794,184
2,653,237
2,519,441
2,392,431
2,270,187
2,154,216
2,044,196
1,939,821
1,840,800
1,745,617
1,655,371
1,569,808
1,488,685
1,411,770
1,337,946
1,267,993
1,201,708
1,138,900
1,079,385
1,022,426
968,480
917,386
868,995
823,163
779,294
737,768
698,458
661,247
44,925,576
2006 2038
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0016
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto

Horizonte 30 Carros pipa


Tasa de inters 7% pozo
Costo Total 141,653,333 busca
VAC 154,821,959 compra
total
Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I+O&M)
FRC 0.08059
CAE 12,476,545 Carros pipa
CAE por litro CP 0.0016 pozo

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414 compra


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620 total

Ano Inversin VAC I Poblacin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343 134,601


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146 136,832
2 2010 139,021
3 2011 141,247
4 2012 143,510
5 2013 145,813
6 2014 148,154
7 2015 150,425
8 2016 152,732
9 2017 155,077
10 2018 157,460
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559 159,882
12 2020 162,228
13 2021 164,610
14 2022 167,029
15 2023 169,485
16 2024 171,979
17 2025 174,395
18 2026 176,847
19 2027 179,334
20 2028 181,858
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390 184,420
22 2030 186,916
23 2031 189,448
24 2032 192,015
25 2033 194,618
26 2034 197,259
27 2035 199,818
28 2036 202,413
29 2037 205,042
30 2038 207,706
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.12217


Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07825
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.20042
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
59.17 (0.0026) 75.7736 0.0029 0.78 (0.92) -0.8516

tos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo Por litro
0.74 3.85 2.85 0.03 0.00003
0.90 6.80 6.12 0.06 0.00006
4.38 82.25 360.26 3.60 0.00360
7.25 7.10 51.48 0.51 0.00051
13.27 100.00 420.70 4.21 0.00421

R/m3 Peso relativo Por litro


0.74 3.85 0.22 0.16 0.0002
0.90 6.80 0.38 0.34 0.0003

7.25 7.10 0.40 2.90 0.0029


8.89 17.75 1.00 3.41 0.0034

Demanda
tasa de Demanda Demanda Demanda
O&M VAC O&M (m3/ano) -
crecimiento (m3/ano) - SC (m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano)
Total
1,213,245 1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32
1.7% 2,004,340 3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28
1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633 2,029,997 3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27
1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113 2,056,066 3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23
1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505 2,082,554 3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19
1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559 2,109,470 3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15
1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173 2,136,822 3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16
1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022 2,163,262 3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17
1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395 2,190,111 3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21
1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828 2,217,376 3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25
1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576 2,256,596 3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34
1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636 2,300,627 3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52
1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804 2,316,688 3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53
1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148 2,335,275 4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56
1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707 2,356,468 4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61
1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045 2,380,345 4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63
1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010 2,422,941 4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70
1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850 2,469,140 4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80
1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214 2,497,983 4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80
1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122 2,527,243 4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80
1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305 2,556,928 4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80
1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032 2,587,044 4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77
1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640 2,623,595 4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79
1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631 2,658,670 4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81
1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600 2,702,295 4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87
1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272 2,734,930 4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87
1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648 2,764,043 4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84
1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217 2,789,729 4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79
1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792 2,802,411 5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67
1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597 2,815,083 5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56
1.3% 7,257,888 953,448 2,827,770 5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46
174,825,846 64,444,521 73,929,046 127,376,205 201,305,250
Beneficio Neto Beneficio Neto por
(R/h/d) ano (R/ano)

Demanda
0.2004 73.15 VA BN
(l/h/da)
63.88
104.89
104.86 10,169,759 8,882,662
104.75 10,332,581 8,434,464
104.63 10,498,173 8,009,006
104.52 10,666,590 7,605,131
104.54 10,837,889 7,221,743
104.57 11,004,001 6,852,739
104.68 11,172,799 6,502,671
104.79 11,344,334 6,170,566
105.04 11,518,658 5,855,501
105.53 11,695,824 5,556,602
105.57 11,867,431 5,269,281
105.65 12,041,680 4,996,869
105.78 12,218,618 4,738,591
105.82 12,398,294 4,493,712
106.03 12,580,758 4,261,538
106.31 12,757,488 4,038,694
106.30 12,936,814 3,827,537
106.30 13,118,780 3,627,452
106.29 13,303,431 3,437,859
106.23 13,490,814 3,258,208
106.27 13,673,431 3,086,273
106.33 13,858,617 2,923,432
106.49 14,046,414 2,769,203
106.49 14,236,867 2,623,131
106.40 14,430,018 2,484,784
106.26 14,617,265 2,352,362
105.95 14,807,029 2,227,010
105.64 14,999,349 2,108,351
105.36 15,194,266 1,996,027
365,817,972 135,611,399
2006 2038
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0016
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto

Horizonte 30 Carros pipa


Tasa de inters 7% pozo
Costo Total 141,653,333 busca
VAC 154,821,959 compra
total
Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I+O&M)
FRC 0.08059
CAE 12,476,545 Carros pipa
CAE por litro CP 0.0016 pozo

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414 compra


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620 total

VPL 135,611,399

Ano Inversin VAC I Poblacin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343 134,601


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146 136,832
2 2010 139,021
3 2011 141,247
4 2012 143,510
5 2013 145,813
6 2014 148,154
7 2015 150,425
8 2016 152,732
9 2017 155,077
10 2018 157,460
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559 159,882
12 2020 162,228
13 2021 164,610
14 2022 167,029
15 2023 169,485
16 2024 171,979
17 2025 174,395
18 2026 176,847
19 2027 179,334
20 2028 181,858
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390 184,420
22 2030 186,916
23 2031 189,448
24 2032 192,015
25 2033 194,618
26 2034 197,259
27 2035 199,818
28 2036 202,413
29 2037 205,042
30 2038 207,706
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.12217


Excedente (R/h/d) 0.07825
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.20042
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P Var Q/ Q Var P/ P Elasticidad
59.17 (0.0026) 75.7736 0.0029 0.78 (0.92) -0.8516

tos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo Por litro
0.74 3.85 2.85 0.03 0.00003
0.90 6.80 6.12 0.06 0.00006
4.38 82.25 360.26 3.60 0.00360
7.25 7.10 51.48 0.51 0.00051
13.27 100.00 420.70 4.21 0.00421

R/m3 Peso relativo Por litro


0.74 3.85 0.22 0.16 0.0002
0.90 6.80 0.38 0.34 0.0003

7.25 7.10 0.40 2.90 0.0029


8.89 17.75 1.00 3.41 0.0034

Demanda
tasa de Demanda Demanda Demanda
O&M VAC O&M (m3/ano) -
crecimiento (m3/ano) - SC (m3/ano) - PF (m3/h/ano)
Total
1,213,245 1,925,382 3,138,628 23.32
1.7% 2,004,340 3,234,124 5,238,464 38.28
1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633 2,029,997 3,290,937 5,320,934 38.27
1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113 2,056,066 3,344,212 5,400,278 38.23
1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505 2,082,554 3,398,320 5,480,874 38.19
1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559 2,109,470 3,453,276 5,562,746 38.15
1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173 2,136,822 3,516,398 5,653,220 38.16
1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022 2,163,262 3,577,921 5,741,183 38.17
1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395 2,190,111 3,645,414 5,835,525 38.21
1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828 2,217,376 3,714,177 5,931,554 38.25
1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576 2,256,596 3,780,286 6,036,882 38.34
1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636 2,300,627 3,857,957 6,158,584 38.52
1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804 2,316,688 3,934,463 6,251,151 38.53
1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148 2,335,275 4,012,604 6,347,880 38.56
1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707 2,356,468 4,092,423 6,448,891 38.61
1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045 2,380,345 4,166,049 6,546,394 38.63
1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010 2,422,941 4,232,971 6,655,912 38.70
1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850 2,469,140 4,297,949 6,767,089 38.80
1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214 2,497,983 4,363,882 6,861,865 38.80
1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122 2,527,243 4,430,787 6,958,030 38.80
1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305 2,556,928 4,498,680 7,055,608 38.80
1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032 2,587,044 4,563,484 7,150,528 38.77
1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640 2,623,595 4,626,617 7,250,212 38.79
1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631 2,658,670 4,693,572 7,352,242 38.81
1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600 2,702,295 4,761,321 7,463,616 38.87
1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272 2,734,930 4,829,873 7,564,803 38.87
1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648 2,764,043 4,897,052 7,661,096 38.84
1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217 2,789,729 4,960,351 7,750,080 38.79
1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792 2,802,411 5,025,227 7,827,638 38.67
1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597 2,815,083 5,090,849 7,905,932 38.56
1.3% 7,257,888 953,448 2,827,770 5,159,643 7,987,414 38.46
174,825,846 64,444,521 73,929,046 127,376,205 201,305,250
Beneficio Neto Beneficio Neto por
(R/h/d) ano (R/ano)

Demanda
0.2004 73.15 BN
(l/h/da)
63.88 (23,066,343)
104.89 (56,047,826)
104.86 10,169,759 5,149,793
104.75 10,332,581 5,293,841
104.63 10,498,173 5,457,501
104.52 10,666,590 5,588,568
104.54 10,837,889 5,720,139
104.57 11,004,001 5,847,802
104.68 11,172,799 5,976,326
104.79 11,344,334 6,106,881
105.04 11,518,658 6,237,690
105.53 11,695,824 (20,635,112)
105.57 11,867,431 6,498,649
105.65 12,041,680 6,332,401
105.78 12,218,618 6,466,664
105.82 12,398,294 6,604,204
106.03 12,580,758 6,741,347
106.31 12,757,488 6,873,090
106.30 12,936,814 7,011,071
106.30 13,118,780 7,151,068
106.29 13,303,431 6,708,308
106.23 13,490,814 (1,847,578)
106.27 13,673,431 6,750,307
106.33 13,858,617 6,891,789
106.49 14,046,414 7,033,358
106.49 14,236,867 7,179,727
106.40 14,430,018 7,329,670
106.26 14,617,265 7,476,180
105.95 14,807,029 7,627,665
105.64 14,999,349 7,781,248
105.36 15,194,266 7,936,378
365,817,972 (17,953,794)
VA BN

8,882,662
8,434,464
8,009,006
7,605,131
7,221,743
6,852,739
6,502,671
6,170,566
5,855,501
5,556,602
5,269,281
4,996,869
4,738,591
4,493,712
4,261,538
4,038,694
3,827,537
3,627,452
3,437,859
3,258,208
3,086,273
2,923,432
2,769,203
2,623,131
2,484,784
2,352,362
2,227,010
2,108,351
1,996,027
135,611,399
EVALUACION ECONOMICA ADUTOR ALTO OESTE
Puntos de la Demanda
2006 2038
Costo (l/h/d) 0.0042 0.0007
Demanda (l/h/d) 46.19 105.36

Datos
Horizonte 30
Tasa de inters 7%
Costo Total 141,653,333
VAC 64,444,521

Clculo del Costo Anual Equivalente (I+O&M)


FRC 0.08059
CAE 5,193,352
CAE por litro CP 0.0007

Demanda 2038 (M3/ano) 7,987,414


Demanda 2038 (l/ano) 7,987,413,620

Indicadores de Rentabilidad
VPL 25,738,839
TIR 10.1%

Perodo Ano Inversin VAC I Poblacin

0 2008 23,066,343 23,066,343 134,601


1 2009 56,047,826 52,381,146 136,832
2 2010 139,021
3 2011 141,247
4 2012 143,510
5 2013 145,813
6 2014 148,154
7 2015 150,425
8 2016 152,732
9 2017 155,077
10 2018 157,460
11 2019 27,002,217 12,828,559 159,882
12 2020 162,228
13 2021 164,610
14 2022 167,029
15 2023 169,485
16 2024 171,979
17 2025 174,395
18 2026 176,847
19 2027 179,334
20 2028 181,858
21 2029 8,700,937 2,101,390 184,420
22 2030 186,916
23 2031 189,448
24 2032 192,015
25 2033 194,618
26 2034 197,259
27 2035 199,818
28 2036 202,413
29 2037 205,042
30 2038 207,706
TOTALES 114,817,323 90,377,438

Economa de recursos (R/h/d) 0.16429


Excedente (R/h/d) 0.10522
BENEFICIO NETO (R/h/d) 0.26951
Clculo de la Elasticidad Precio de la Demanda
Variacin Q Variacin P Promedio Q Promedio P Var Q/ Q Var P/ P
59.17 (0.0036) 75.7736 0.0024 0.78 (1.46)

Costos de la situacin sin proyecto


R/m3 Peso relativo
Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 2.85 0.03
pozo 0.90 6.80 6.12 0.06
busca 4.38 82.25 360.26 3.60
compra 7.25 7.10 51.48 0.51
total 13.27 100.00 420.70 4.21

R/m3 Peso relativo


Carros pipa 0.74 3.85 0.22 0.16
pozo 0.90 6.80 0.38 0.34

compra 7.25 7.10 0.40 2.90


total 8.89 17.75 1.00 3.41

Tasa de Demanda
Demanda Demanda
crecimiento O&M VAC O&M (m3/ano) -
(m3/ano) - SC (m3/ano) - PF
poblacional Total

1,213,245 1,925,382 3,138,628


1.7% 2,004,340 3,234,124 5,238,464
1.6% 5,019,966 4,384,633 2,029,997 3,290,937 5,320,934
1.6% 5,038,740 4,113,113 2,056,066 3,344,212 5,400,278
1.6% 5,040,672 3,845,505 2,082,554 3,398,320 5,480,874
1.6% 5,078,022 3,620,559 2,109,470 3,453,276 5,562,746
1.6% 5,117,750 3,410,173 2,136,822 3,516,398 5,653,220
1.5% 5,156,200 3,211,022 2,163,262 3,577,921 5,741,183
1.5% 5,196,473 3,024,395 2,190,111 3,645,414 5,835,525
1.5% 5,237,453 2,848,828 2,217,376 3,714,177 5,931,554
1.5% 5,280,968 2,684,576 2,256,596 3,780,286 6,036,882
1.5% 5,328,718 2,531,636 2,300,627 3,857,957 6,158,584
1.5% 5,368,782 2,383,804 2,316,688 3,934,463 6,251,151
1.5% 5,709,279 2,369,148 2,335,275 4,012,604 6,347,880
1.5% 5,751,954 2,230,707 2,356,468 4,092,423 6,448,891
1.5% 5,794,090 2,100,045 2,380,345 4,166,049 6,546,394
1.5% 5,839,411 1,978,010 2,422,941 4,232,971 6,655,912
1.4% 5,884,398 1,862,850 2,469,140 4,297,949 6,767,089
1.4% 5,925,743 1,753,214 2,497,983 4,363,882 6,861,865
1.4% 5,967,712 1,650,122 2,527,243 4,430,787 6,958,030
1.4% 6,595,123 1,704,305 2,556,928 4,498,680 7,055,608
1.4% 6,637,456 1,603,032 2,587,044 4,563,484 7,150,528
1.4% 6,923,124 1,562,640 2,623,595 4,626,617 7,250,212
1.4% 6,966,828 1,469,631 2,658,670 4,693,572 7,352,242
1.4% 7,013,057 1,382,600 2,702,295 4,761,321 7,463,616
1.4% 7,057,139 1,300,272 2,734,930 4,829,873 7,564,803
1.4% 7,100,347 1,222,648 2,764,043 4,897,052 7,661,096
1.3% 7,141,085 1,149,217 2,789,729 4,960,351 7,750,080
1.3% 7,179,364 1,079,792 2,802,411 5,025,227 7,827,638
1.3% 7,218,101 1,014,597 2,815,083 5,090,849 7,905,932
1.3% 7,257,888 953,448 2,827,770 5,159,643 7,987,414
174,825,846 64,444,521 73,929,046 127,376,205 201,305,250
Elasticidad
-0.5332

Por litro
0.00003
0.00006
0.00360
0.00051
0.00421

Por litro
0.0002
0.0003

0.0029
0.0034

Beneficio Neto Beneficio Neto por


Demanda Demanda (R/h/d) ano (R/ano)
BN VA BN
(m3/h/ano) (l/h/da)
0.2695 98.37
23.32 63.88 (23,066,343) -23,066,343
38.28 104.89 (56,047,826) -52,381,146
38.27 104.86 13,675,715 8,655,749 7,560,267
38.23 104.75 13,894,669 8,855,929 7,229,076
38.19 104.63 14,117,347 9,076,675 6,924,552
38.15 104.52 14,343,825 9,265,804 6,606,390
38.16 104.54 14,574,179 9,456,428 6,301,218
38.17 104.57 14,797,556 9,641,357 6,004,152
38.21 104.68 15,024,546 9,828,073 5,720,028
38.25 104.79 15,255,217 10,017,763 5,449,000
38.34 105.04 15,489,637 10,208,669 5,189,570
38.52 105.53 15,727,880 (16,603,055) -7,887,992
38.53 105.57 15,958,648 10,589,866 4,702,027
38.56 105.65 16,192,968 10,483,689 4,350,358
38.61 105.78 16,430,904 10,678,951 4,141,481
38.63 105.82 16,672,523 10,878,433 3,942,845
38.70 106.03 16,917,889 11,078,479 3,752,664
38.80 106.31 17,155,547 11,271,148 3,568,157
38.80 106.30 17,396,694 11,470,951 3,393,840
38.80 106.30 17,641,391 11,673,679 3,227,870
38.80 106.29 17,889,699 11,294,576 2,918,733
38.77 106.23 18,141,681 2,803,289 677,031
38.79 106.27 18,387,254 11,464,130 2,587,605
38.81 106.33 18,636,282 11,669,454 2,461,635
38.87 106.49 18,888,821 11,875,764 2,341,267
38.87 106.49 19,144,931 12,087,791 2,227,166
38.84 106.40 19,404,669 12,304,322 2,118,749
38.79 106.26 19,656,469 12,515,383 2,014,105
38.67 105.95 19,911,652 12,732,288 1,914,964
38.56 105.64 20,170,274 12,952,173 1,820,594
38.46 105.36 20,432,387 13,174,499 1,730,696
491,931,257 25,738,839 27,540,557
VPL 25,738,839
TIR 10.1%