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MarcusLudtke May09,2016
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Chartology,InvestingResearch

Thetugofwarbetweenbullsandbearsinthecornandsoybeanmarket
continuedthisweekwiththefocusalmostentirelyonSouthAmerican
weatherdevelopments.Andhowthismightaffectthecorncropandsoybean
crop.
RegardingArgentinassoybeancrop,themagnitudeofthebushelslostdue
toextensivefloodingduringthemonthofAprilremainsasizableunknown.
Therefore,asitstandsatradercanreadwhatheorshewantstoregarding
potentialproductiondecreaseswithestimatescurrentlyrangingfroma
minimumof2MMT(74millionbushels)toamaximumof10MMT(367 CELULARLIBRELGG4BEATH735PLATEA
millionbushels). ARGENTINA[217.991]Stock:448u.
PRECIOPORINTERNET:

Obviouslythattypeof 12cuotasde
$870
excessiverangeonlyfuels
additionalpriceuncertainty
leadingintonextTuesdays
May2016WASDEreport.In
ApriltheUSDAestimated
Argentinas2015/16soybean
cropat59MMT.
AsfarasBrazilssafrinha
corncropisconcerned,which
continuestobenegatively
impactedbypersisting
droughtlikeconditions,
privateproductionforecastshavebeenloweredto48.9to52.5MMTversus
54.6to56.6MMTamonthago.InApriltheUSDAprojectedBrazilstotal
2015/16corncropat84MMTwithapproximately6567%ofthatfigure
attributabletosafrinhaproduction.ThereforeIwouldntbesurprisedtosee
theUSDAloweritstotalproductionestimate2to3MMT(79to118million
bushels)intheMayWASDEreporthoweverImnotexpectingthemtogo
anyfurtheratthistime.TheUSDAhasanestablishedhistoricalprecedentof
http://www.seeitmarket.com/uscornweeklyoutlookpricevolatilitysetcontinue15647/ 1/7
9/5/2016 U.S.CornWeeklyOutlook:PriceVolatilitySetToContinue|SeeItMarket

patient,calculatedproductionadjustmentsasopposedtothealternative, Equities Commodities Bonds

whichcanbeemotionalandoftenunsubstantiatedmonthlyincreasesor
decreases.Havetherebeenexceptionstothis?Absolutely,however 1d 1m 3m 1y 5y all

consideringthemajorityofBrazilssafrinhacornharvestremains1to3
monthsaway,thewaitandseeapproachseemstobethesaferplayforthe
USDAinthisreport.

Symbol Last Change

S&P500 2060.6 +2.7

NQ100 4346 +11

Dow30 17740.63 +79.92

InthisweeksU.S.exportinspectionsandsalessummariesfortheweek
ending4/28,thecornnumberswereonceagainindicativeofanimproving Apple 92.72 0.52
demandmarket.Weeklycornshipmentstotaled45.6millionbushelswith Quotesby
Quotesby
saleseclipsing30millionbushelsforthesecondconsecutiveweek.Yearto
dateU.S.cornexportsalescontinuetotrail2014/15spaceby8%however
thatgaphasnarrowedconsiderablyinjustthepasttwoweeks.Ibelieve MARKET NEWS &
stronglytherecentsurgeinexportsstillsupportsaminimum50million
bushelincreasetotheUSDAs2015/16U.S.cornexportprojectioninthe INSIGHTS
MayWASDEreport.Oneweekofaboveaveragesalescertainlydoesnt
defineatrendhowevertwoweekspotentiallydoes,especiallywhenits May08,2016
followedupbyactualshipments.ItsapparentthatJapan,SouthKorea,and U.S.
othersaretakingrealprecautionagainstfurtherproductioncutstoBrazils Economy,
corncrop. Stocks
Sputter: Is
Wanttogetourlatestinvestingresearchandtradingideas?Signup The Fed Pushing A
here. String?
WeeklyU.S.soybeanexportsalesalsohadaverygoodshowingcomingin
May06,2016
at30.0millionbushels,whichwasupsubstantiallyfromthepreviousweek.
Yeartodatesalesimprovedto1,696.1millionbushelsversus1,814.6 Chart
Spotlight:
millionayearago(down6.5%).WilltheUSDAraise2015/16U.S.soybean
S&P 500
exportsintheMayWASDEreport?Iwouldargueitslikelyhoweverthe
Reaches
increasecouldbemoremeasuredconsideringtheUSDAjustincreasedits
Important Level For
projection15millionbushelsfromMarchtoApril.Thatsaidbasedonthe
Traders
continuedproductionunknownsconcerningArgentina,aswellas,some
privateanalystsnowalsopencilingina98to99MMT2015/16Brazilian May06,2016
soybeancropversustheUSDAsAprilprojectionof100MMT,another10to
Stock
15millionbushelexportincreaseseemsappropriate. Market
WhatothermajorU.S.cornSupply&Demandareaswillthemarketbe Futures
focusedonintheMay2016WASDEReport?TheMayCropreport Update:
carrieswithitaddedsignificanceduetoitcontainingtheUSDAsfirstofficial Decision Time!
2016/17U.S.cornsupplyanddemandtable.Formonthstradershavebeen
speculatingonwhatthatbalancesheetmightlooklikeandonTuesdaywell
finallygetsomeanswers.IputtogetheralistofwhatIbelievetobethe ABOUT OUR
majorpointsofemphasisforthisreport.
CONTRIBUTORS
ThethreemostcriticalfiguresintheUDSAsU.S.cornSupply&
Demandtableswillbethe2015/16U.S.corncarryout,the2016/17U.S.
cornyield,andthe2016/17U.S.corncarryout.

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9/5/2016 U.S.CornWeeklyOutlook:PriceVolatilitySetToContinue|SeeItMarket

1.2015/16U.S.CornCarryout:Thetradeisalreadyanticipatinga 30+ talented

decreasetotheoldcropcarryoutbyvirtueofanincreasetoexports. professionals
Theonlyquestionbeing,HowbigofacutwilltheUSDAmake?The
averagetradeguessforendingstockscurrentlystandsat1,841million MeettheContributors
bushelsversus1,862millioninApril.HoweverIbelievethatfigurewill
becloserto1,800millionduetoa50millionbushelincreasetoexports. Interestedincontributing?
Thatstillprovidesanamplecarryinstocksprojectionfor2016/17.U.S. Clickhere
corncarryinstocksforthepast3cropyearswere1,731millionbushels
(2015/16),1,232millionbushels(2014/15),and821millionbushels
(2012/14).Abeginningstocksestimateover1,800millionwouldbethe
largestsince2006/07(1,967millionbushels).
2.2016/17U.S.CornYield:Imexpectingafigureverycloseto168
bushelsperacre,whichwasthenumbertheUSDApluggedinitsS&D
modelattheAgOutlookForumbackinFebruary.Itshouldbenotedthat
in2015theUSDAstartedatayieldof166.8bpaintheMayreport
versus165.3bpain2014.HoweverconsideringtheU.S.hasachieved
finalnationalcornyieldsinexcessof168bpaineachofthelasttwo
corncropyears,ImofthestrongopiniontheUSDAwillleanmore Download Now
towardaslightlyabovetrendyieldprojectioninTuesdaysreport.
3.2016/17U.S.CornCarryout:Thisiswherethefundamentaldefense
forcontinuedcornralliesabovetheCZ6highof$4.09from4/21gets
difficultforCornBulls.Consideringthemarketalreadyknowsthe OpenaForexAccountandGet60
BonusonAllDeposits.
plantedacreageestimatewillbe93.6millionacres(viatheMarch StartTradingNow!
ProspectivePlantingsreport),ifcarryinstocksare1,800millionbushels
andtheUSDAusesayieldof168bpa,2016/17totalU.S.cornsupplies
Top10reasonstoinvestinincom
willexceed16,250millionbushels.ThereforeeveniftheUSDAchooses
ClickHere
toincrease2016/17totalU.S.corndemand500millionbushelsyearon
year,the2016/17U.S.corncarryoutstillpencilsbackatmorethan
2,250millionbushels.ThiswouldrepresentthelargestU.S.corn
GetthelatestMarketViewsfromt
carryoutsince1987/88!FurthermoreIveseenrecentprivateestimates experts
ashighas2,500millionbushels.TheonlywayIcurrentlyseeCorn ClickHere
BullsbeingabletoshiftthemarketsattentionawayfromnextTuesdays
initial2016/17U.S.cornendingstocksestimateisforthemtotryand Contentfromsp

immediatelydiscounttheUSDAsyieldforecastof168bpaduetothe
muchpublicizedpossibilityofalategrowingseasonLaNinaweather
event.

CornPrices&Considerations:
DecembercornfuturesclosedonFridayat$3.84perbushel,down10
centsweekonweek.Thatsaidhowcornfuturesstarttheweekwillbevery
importantforCornBulls.CZ6iscurrentlysandwichedbetweenthe100day
($3.853)and50day($3.832)movingaverages.Thereforealowercloseon
MondayandTuesdaywilldosomeserioustechnicaldamagetotherecent
uptrend.AsIstatedabove,CornBullswillneedalotofoutsidehelpto
survivewhatisexpectedtobeanundeniablyBearish2016/17U.S.corn
carryoutinTuesdaysMayWASDEreport.Thathelpcouldcomefrom
eitheragreaterthanexpectedcuttoBrazilscorncropand/orasurprisingly
BullishU.S.2016/17soybeanS&D.

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9/5/2016 U.S.CornWeeklyOutlook:PriceVolatilitySetToContinue|SeeItMarket

Thanksforreading.

Twitter:@MarcusLudtke
Authorhedgescornfuturesandmayhaveapositionatthetimeof

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9/5/2016 U.S.CornWeeklyOutlook:PriceVolatilitySetToContinue|SeeItMarket

publication.Anyopinionsexpressedhereinaresolelythoseoftheauthor,
anddonotinanywayrepresenttheviewsoropinionsofanyotherpersonor
entity.
DataReferences:
USDAUnitedStatesDepartmentofAg
EIAEnergyInformationAssociation
NASSNationalAgriculturalStatisticsService

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE PLEASE READ INVESTMENT DISCLAIMER.

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