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A Continuum of Care

More Is Not Always Better

Leonard Bickman
Vanderbilt University

This article describes an $80-million project designed to of different ways of m a n a g i n g service delivery. The Fort
test whether a continuum of mental health and substance Bragg Child and Adolescent Mental Health D e m o n s t r a -
abuse services for children and adolescents is more cost- tion and the Fort Bragg Evaluation Project were designed
effective than services delivered in the more typical frag- to " d e m o n s t r a t e that this c o n t i n u u m of services [would]
mented system. The study showed that an integrated con- result in improved t r e a t m e n t outcomes while the cost of
tinuum was successfully implemented that had better ac- care per client is decreased when c o m p a r e d to c u r r e n t
cess, greater continuity of care, more client satisfaction, C H A M P U S 2 costs. ''3 This $ 8 0 - m i l l i o n D e m o n s t r a t i o n
and treated children in less restrictive environments. provided a rare o p p o r t u n i t y to e x a m i n e both costs a n d
However, the cost was higher, and clinical outcomes were clinical outcomes in a careful a n d comprehensive eval-
no better than those at the comparison site. The article uation of the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a n innovative system of
concludes that reform o f mental health systems alone is care.
unlikely to affect clinical outcomes. Cooperation is needed
between mental health providers and researchers to better The Fort Bragg Demonstration Project
understand how to improve services delivered in the O n June 1, 1990, after a 10-month start-up period, mental
community. health and substance abuse services were offered to more
than 42,000 child and adolescent dependents of military
personnel in the Fort Bragg c a t c h m e n t area. T h e initial
subcontract established a four-year period for the D e m -

N
o controlled studies report on the cost, quality,
onstration, but the services contract between the A r m y
a n d m e n t a l health outcomes for any of the va-
a n d the state of N o r t h C a r o l i n a was extended t h r o u g h
rieties of m e n t a l health systems for children a n d
September 1995. The c u r r e n t contract for services was
adolescents. The Fort Bragg E v a l u a t i o n is the first study
to e x a m i n e what may be considered one type of system
of care, the provision of a full c o n t i n u u m of services to Editor's note. SamuelM. Turner servedas action editor for this article.
children a n d adolescents with m e n t a l health a n d sub-
stance abuse problems. This article first s u m m a r i z e s key Author~ note. This research was supported by the U.S. Army Health
Services Command Grant DADA 10-89-C-0013as a subcontract from
aspects of that complex study a n d then discusses the im- the North Carolina Department of Human Resources, Divisionof Mental
plications of the findings. Health, DevelopmentalDisabilities,and SubstanceAbuse Services;and
A n integrated and comprehensive system of care has from Grant R01MH-46136-01 from the National Institute of Mental
been proposed for i m p r o v i n g the availability a n d delivery Health.
of m e n t a l health services for children. Stroul a n d Fried- This five-year project was the work of many individuals and or-
ganizations. ! would like to especially recognize Lenore Behar for her
m a n (I 986) outlined the basic principles and c o m p o n e n t s initiative in conceptualizingthe Demonstration and her strong support
of an accessible, least restrictive, a n d cost-effective system for an independent evaluation, and the contributions of the Vanderbilt
of care for children. A key aspect of such a system is the managementteam: Pare Guthrie, Michael Foster, Warren Lambert, Tom
availability of a full range of m e n t a l health services tai- Summerfelt, Carolyn Breda, and Craig Anne Heflinger.The feedback
on a draft of this article from Carolyn Breda, Michael Foster, Craig
lored to the needs of children. This range of services has Anne Heflinger, C. Deborah Laughton, and Laura Scaramella is very
been termed a continuum of care (Behar, 1985; Stroul & much appreciated.
F r i e d m a n , 1986) a n d includes residential, intermediate, Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to
a n d nonresidential services. The c o n t i n u u m of care aims Leonard Bickman,Center for MentalHealth Policy,VanderbiltUniversity,
to deliver coordinated services on an individualized basis 1207 18th Avenue,South, Nashville,TN 37212.
using case m a n a g e m e n t a n d interdisciplinary t r e a t m e n t
This article can only provide an overview of the methods and
t e a m s to integrate a n d facilitate transition between ser- results of this large-scalestudy. More information about the Fort Bragg
vices. The c o n t i n u u m is designed to be community-based, study can be found in Bickman, Guthrie, et al. (1995).
involving various agencies p e r t i n e n t to children's needs. 2CHAMPUS refers to insurer of the dependent,the CivilianHealth
Concerns about large expenditures for mental health and Medical Program of the Uniformed Services.
3From p. C-I, Amendment0002 of Contract DADA 10-89-R-0018
services a n d a b o u t the quality of care, especially for chil- between the Army Health ServicesCommand and the North Carolina
dren a n d adolescents, p r o m p t e d Congress a n d the De- Department of Human Resources, Division of Mental Health, Devel-
p a r t m e n t of Defense to i m p l e m e n t several demonstrations opmental Disabilities,and Substance Abuse Services.

July 1996 A m e r i c a n Psychologist 689


Copyrighl 1996 by the American Psychological Association, Inc. 0003-066X/96/$2.00
Vol. 51, No. 7, 689-701
competitively bid and is operated by a managed care plementation problems found when multiple agencies
company. need to collaborate and pool funds.
The Demonstration required that families seeking The philosophy of the Demonstration called for
services for their children use the Demonstration's clinical controlling costs not by the conventional method of lim-
services, which were free, or seek and pay for services on iting services or cost per child but by providing a contin-
their own. The services included both community-based u u m of services designed to be more "appropriate" for
nonresidential and residential service components. The each child. The wide ranges of services were designed to
R u m b a u g h Clinic, located off-post in Fayetteville, North permit placement in less restrictive and hypothetically
Carolina, was the coordinator, fiscal intermediary, quality less expensive services. It was assumed that this rational-
assurance monitor, and umbrella organization for all clinical approach to managing benefits would be a more
mental health and substance abuse services for C H A M - effective means of controlling costs than placing fixed,
PUS beneficiaries. As such, it was responsible for preau- and often arbitrary, limits on care. The Demonstration,
thorizing services and for utilization reviews through its however, did operate under the scrutiny of the state, the
individual treatment teams and the quality assurance Army, and Congress and was under pressure to provide
process. The clinic provided mental health services by the most cost-effective services possible. The Demonstra-
using its own in-house staff or by contracting with com- tion was monitored by an on-site A r m y representative
munity providers already offering traditional mental and a contracting officer. In addition, there were monthly
health services (such as outpatient therapy and acute in- advisory meetings led by an A r m y medical officer. At
patient hospitalization) and provided intensive outpatient these meetings, the Demonstration staff presented utili-
services itself. For the intermediate level of the continuum, zation and expense data and reviewed any problems. The
the clinic developed services that included in-home ther- Demonstration submitted monthly utilization and cost
apy, after-school group services, day treatment services, reports to the Army. Consultants to the A r m y reviewed
therapeutic homes, specialized group homes, and 24-hour level of care placements on a regular basis. Each year, the
crisis management teams. All families who requested ser- contract had to be reviewed and funds allocated. The
vices received a comprehensive intake and assessment. next section describes the standard care children received
Children using intermediate- or more intensive-level outside the Fort Bragg catchment area in the control site.
services were assigned a case manager who coordinated Traditional CHAMPUS Services
services with the other child-serving agencies and prac-
titioners in the community. Thus, services in the contin- In fiscal year 1991, C H A M P U S allowed 45 days of in-
u u m and across other agencies were linked by case man- patient or hospital care, 150 days of Residential Treatment
agers and interdisciplinary treatment teams led by a doc- Center (RTC) care, and 23 outpatient visits per year. Un-
toral-level staff person. Additional services, such as like many other insurers, C H A M P U S imposes no lifetime
transportation and other wraparound services, also were benefit or dollar limit (Baine, 1992). Health Management
provided. Systems, Inc. (HMS) was responsible for providing uti-
The American Psychological Association's (APA's) lization management for all inpatient and RTC stays and
section on Child Clinical Psychology and the Division of for outpatient visits exceeding 23 visits per year. CHAM-
Child, Youth, and Family Services joint task force con- PUS coverage is generous. Nevertheless, it does not con-
sidered the Demonstration a model program because it tain any of the key features of a continuum of care, in
was seen as "the most comprehensive program to date, other words, no systematic centralized intake, case man-
integrating m a n y of the approaches demonstrated by agement and treatment teams, or intermediate-level
other service programs," and its approach was considered services.
"integrated and flexibly constructed, yet comprehensive,
[with] s e r v i c e s . . , available to be adapted to meet the Program Theory: Why the Continuum
needs of children and their families, rather than a sim- Should Be More Cost-Effective
plistic application of a single approach to all presenting Program theoryhas been defined as "a plausible and sen-
problems" (Roberts, 1994, p. 215). The Demonstration sible model of how a program is supposed to work"
was recognized for its continuum of care in a single lo- (Bickman, 1987, p. 5). Describing the program theory
cation and its close ties to other services and agencies. was an important first step in planning the evaluation.
The Demonstration was to provide the best possible The theory provided the hypothesized links between pro-
services for children without the typical limitations placed gram features and planned outcomes to be tested. Pro-
on providers by insurance companies or public agencies. gram evaluation theorists (Bickman, 1987, 1990; Chen
A cost-reimbursement contract allowed the Demonstra- & Rossi, 1992; Lipsey, 1990) differentiate between pro-
tion autonomy in initiating a continuum of care. This gram theory failure and program implementation failure.
contract theoretically placed no limits on the types or In this evaluation, the theory tested is that a comprehen-
costs of services to be offered if they were judged to be sive, integrated, and coordinated continuum of care is
therapeutically appropriate by the Demonstration's staff. more cost-effective than a fragmented service system with
This was to be a test of the continuum of care model a limited variety of services. The theory could be tested
without the usual financial restraints and the typical im- only if the Demonstration implemented this theory suf-

690 July 1996 American Psychologist


ficiently well and if the evaluation methods were valid. outcomes: (a) an increase in the number of clients served
Because a continuum of care had never been imple- by reducing barriers to obtaining services, and (b) an in-
mented on this scale, the evaluation did not assume that crease in client satisfaction with the intake process
such an undertaking necessarily would be successful. through a reduced financial burden and increased ease
Thus, it was important to conceptualize and describe the of access.
Demonstration theory and its actual implementation. The second major section of Figure 1 illustrates pro-
Figure 1 shows the logic model or program theory gram operations during the assessment process. All fam-
of the Demonstration developed by the evaluators. This ilies were to participate in a standard intake process, in-
theory served as the organizing principle of the evaluation cluding a comprehensive evaluation and a review by an
and identified key assumptions underlying the program. interdisciplinary treatment team. The Demonstration
The intake characteristics of this system are on the left contract set standards for prompt assessment (within three
side of Figure 1. Unlike m a n y nonsystems or more com- weeks), including obtaining input from family and other
plex systems, the eligible population can receive mental relevant professionals. These program activities were hy-
health services only through a single point of entry, the pothesized to lead to three proximal outcomes: (a) a more
Demonstration. This feature allows the Demonstration accurate assessment of the problem, which led to (b) a
to control access to services. Moreover, this feature should better treatment plan, and (c) an increase in client sat-
make it easy for potential clients to know where mental isfaction with the assessment process. A more accurate
health services can be obtained. Strict standards of time- assessment of the problem was predicted because of the
liness are not part of "services as usual" provided under comprehensive intake and assessment process, family
CHAMPUS. However, for nonemergency cases, the participation, involvement of the multidisciplinary team,
Demonstration had to ensure that clients would receive and the fact that reimbursement was not tied to diagnosis.
intake and subsequent services within three weeks of a Treatment planning should have been improved because
request for services. of the increased accuracy in judgments of the child's
As indicated in the lower left-hand column of Figure problems and the input from a multidisciplinary team.
1, at the beginning of the Demonstration, providers and The involvement of the family and the perceived accuracy
potential clients were informed about the new system of of the assessment process should have improved consumer
care. These activities were hypothesized to produce a satisfaction as well.
proximal outcome of increased access to services. This The actual services (characterized on the far right-
increased access should have resulted in two intermediate hand side of Figure 1) provided by the Demonstration

Figure 1
Fort Bragg Child and AdolescentDemonstration:Program Theory
,( INTAKE ) ~ ASSESSMENT ~, .TREATMENT
Program Proximal Intermediate Program Proximal Program Proximal
Operations Outcomes Outcomes Operations Outcomes Operations Outcomes

"figher Quality
System of
Care
Greater
continuity
Fewer
dropouts
Less
restrictive
More
individualized
More timely
care

i 1
u,,,oate
Outcomes
l health
m0rove menta
outcomes~ I recovery I
1
Note. From Evaluating Managed Mental Health Services: The Fort Bragg Experiment (p. 68), by I.. Bickman, P. R. Guthrie, E. M. Foster, E. W. Lambert, W. T.
Summerfeh, C. S. Breda, and C. A. Heflinger, 1995, New York: Plenum. Copyright 1995 by Plenum. Adapted with permission.

July 1996 American Psychologist 691


included access to the wide variety of services available Chen, 1990; Chen & Rossi, 1987) and followed a case
in the continuum of care and the management of more study approach (Yin, 1986, 1993) to describe the struc-
complex cases by a treatment team and a clinical case ture and processes of the Demonstration. The case study
manager. As noted earlier, the Demonstration offered in- used multiple methods and multiple sources of infor-
patient and residential treatment, in-home therapy, after- mation and included a network analysis.
school services, day treatment services, therapeutic homes, The Quality Study assessed the quality of two critical
specialized group homes, 24-hour crisis management service components, intake assessment and case man-
teams, wraparound services, and intensive outpatient agement, and one key administrative function, the Dem-
services. These program activities should have led to the onstration's Quality Improvement (QI) program. In the
proximal outcome of a higher quality system of care that planning phase of the Evaluation, the developers ac-
provided a better match between the services and the knowledged that the Quality Study was an indirect way
needs of the child and family. Operationally defined here, to gauge the effectiveness of the individual components
a quality system o f care has (a) individualized treatment, of care such as psychotherapy and hospitalization. These
(b) timely transitions between levels of care, (c) continuity studies are described in Bickman, Bryant, and Summer-
of services, (d) services provided at the most appropriate felt (1993); Bickman, Summerfelt, and Bryant (1996);
and least restrictive level of services, and (e) few dropouts and Heflinger (1993, 1996).
from treatment. The Implementation Study concluded that the ser-
The Demonstration should have led to the following vice delivery model specified by the Demonstration theory
ultimate outcomes as compared with mental health ser- was well implemented. The Demonstration successfully
vices under CHAMPUS: improved mental health, lower executed a coordinated, individualized, community-
costs per case, quicker recovery, and more client satisfac- based, and family-focused continuum of care. As indi-
tion. The higher quality service system should have in- cated by measures of system coordination and fragmen-
creased the probability that services would be more ef- tation, on the basis of a network analysis, services were
fective. Although the total costs of the Demonstration better coordinated at Fort Bragg than at the comparison
should have been higher (because of a predicted increase site. Moreover, the Quality Study showed that the services
in the number of clients treated), it was expected that provided at the Demonstration were of sufficient quality.
similar cases would cost less to treat at the Demonstration The Demonstration maintained a QI program that sup-
(i.e., for similar cases, the Demonstration should have ported quality clinical activities. 4 The two most significant
been more cost-effective than traditional care), The eval- nontherapeutic activities, case management and intake-
uation methodology was designed to test this program assessment central to a continuum of care, also were
theory. judged to be of high quality.
I should point out that this program model describes
Mental Health Outcomes
the logic underlying the Demonstration but is not em-
pirical support for this model. The model attempts to The Mental Health Outcome Study collected data from
explicate key linkages and assumptions made by the a sample of 984 children (574 at the Demonstration; 410
Demonstration's developers. However, the driving force at the Comparison), between the ages of 5 and 17, and
behind the Demonstration was the beliefs and values that their families to determine the effect of the Demonstration
the continuum of care was the proper way to care for on child and adolescent psychopathology and psychosocial
children. This Demonstration represented the type of functioning and family functioning. To serve as the Com-
system reform that advocates for children's services parison group, children receiving traditional CHAMPUS
thought was critical. services were recruited at two comparable army posts.
Families were interviewed at the intake to services and 6
M e t h o d s a n d Results and 12 months later. Parents and children provided clin-
Quality and Implementation ical information through in-person structured clinical in-
terviews and self-report questionnaires. Areas of inquiry
The Evaluation consisted of four substudies: (a) the Im- included level of functioning, competencies, pathologies,
plementation Study, (b) the Quality Study, (c) the Mental family environment, and client satisfaction with services.
Health Outcome Study, and (d) the Cost-Utilization Multiple informants included children in treatment, their
Study. The Implementation and Quality Studies focused primary caretaker, the mental health provider, teachers,
on documenting the Demonstration's activities. The pri- and trained interviewers. The specific instrumentation,
mary purpose of the two substudies was to assess the de- fully described in Bickman, Guthrie, et al. (1995), covered
gree to which the Demonstration implemented a high-
quality system of care that was faithful to the program 4The QI program should not be confusedwith the utilization review
model. The Evaluation needed to be confident that the process. The formeris concernedwith enhancingthe quality of services,
success or failure of the Demonstration could be attrib- whereas the latter is moreconcerned with cost control. Althoughthe QI
uted to the theory and not to a faulty implementation of program functioned verywell. the utilization reviewsystem had several
the theory. The program implementation methodology problems that were documented by Heflinger(1993). Although there
was constant pressure by the Army to control costs, the issue was not
was based on the theory-driven and component ap- brought to a head until late in the project when the utilization review
proaches to program evaluation (Bickman, 1985, 1987; system was made fully operational.

692 July 1996 American Psychologist


fable !
Eleven Key Measures of Outcome
Measure Description

Standardized measures of child mental health


Overall outcome Z-weighted average of P-CAS psychopathology, CAFAS functioning impairment, and
Psychopathology + Functioning + BCQ family burden. A single overall measure of outcome as reported by parent
Family burden and scored by a trained rater. Psychopathology high.
Child Behavior Check List (CBCL) Total psychopathology score from Achenbach's CBCL. Data reported directly by
psychopathology total parent, scored with Achenbach's methods and norms. Widely used measure of
child psychopathology. Psychopathology high.
Parent Child Assessment Schedule Total psychopathology score from Hodges's P-CAS. Parent reports observations
(P-CAS) psychopathology total that are scored by a trained rater with ongoing reliability checks. Rigorous
measure of child psychopathology in DSM-III-Rterms. Psychopathology high.
Burden of Care (BCQ) total Total burden (objective and subjective; internal and external) experienced by family
as a result of having a troubled child. Measure of child's impact on the family that
could be changed by effective treatment of the child. Psychopathology high.
Youth Self-Report (YSR) total Total psychopathology score from Achenbach's YSR, a variant of the CBCL self-
psychopathology reported by the child. Data reported directly by child, scored by Achenbach's
methods and norms. Child-reported measures have fewer cases because only
children 12 years old or older complete the YSR. Widely used measure of self-
reported child psychopathology. Psychopathology high.
Child Assessment Schedule (CASI Total psychopathology score from Hodges's CAS. Children report observations
psychopathology total about themselves that are scored by a trained rater with ongoing reliability
checks. Only children eight years old or older take the CAS. Rigorous measure of
child-reported psychopathology in DSM-III-Rterms. Psychopathology high.
Child and Adolescent Functional Overall functioning impairment from Hodges's CAFAS. Standardized rating of child
Assessment Scale (CAFAS) functioning competence. Scored by a trained rater with ongoing reliability checks
based on parent reports, child self-reports, and all biographical data available to
interviewer. Psychopathology high.

Parent-reported individualized measures


Presenting problem: Associated Using the parent's report of the child's main presenting problem, the corresponding
parent-reported psychopathology parent-reported psychopathology score from the P-CAS is chosen to represent
score the child's key problem. Scores are standardized to eliminate differences among
means of psychopathology measures.
Parent-reported "most severe" After psychopathology scores from the P-CAS and CBCL are standardized to the
psychopathology same mean and standard deviation, each child's highest (worst) score is chosen
to represent his or her most severe mental health problem area.

Child-reported individualized measures


Presenting problem: Child-reported Using the parent's report of the child's main presenting problem, the corresponding
psychopathology score child-reported psychopathology score from the CAS is chosen to represent the
child's key problem. Scores are standardized to eliminate difference among
means of psychopathology measures.
Child-reported "most severe" After psychopathology scores from the CAS and YSR are standardized to the same
psychopathology mean and standard deviation, each child's highest (worst) score is chosen to
represent his or her most severe self-reported mental health problem area.
Note. FromEvaluating Managed Mental Health Services: The Fort Bragg Experiment (pp. 146-147), by L. Bickman, P. R. Guthrie, E. M. Foster, E. W. Lambert, W. T.
Summerfelt, C. S. Breda, and C. A. Hef/inger, 1995, New York: Plenum. Copyright 1995 by Plenum. Adapted with permission. DSM-III R = Diagnostic and Statistical
Manual o{ Mental Disorders (3rd ed., revised; American Psychiatric Association, 19871.

several domains and approaches that are listed in Ta- parable at each wave of data collection. O f the 103
ble 1. measures of mental health status of the children at in-
Because the study was a quasi-experiment, sample take, 14 suggested that the two sites differed signifi-
comparability was addressed after recruitment and at cantly: Nine indicated that children at the Comparison
each wave of data collection. Analyses of demographic site exhibited greater symptomatology than those at
and outcome data showed that the samples were corn- the Demonstration site, and 5 suggested the children

July 1996 American Psychologist 693


at the D e m o n s t r a t i o n were m o r e severely impaired. an assessment and the first services at the Demonstration
N o n e o f the effect sizes associated with the m e n t a l in contrast to 38 days at the Comparison site. Children
health status o f children were greater t h a n .25. The also remained in services m u c h longer in the D e m o n -
E v a l u a t i o n sample, particularly regarding mental stration. Six m o n t h s after starting treatment, 41% of the
health status, was nearly identical at the two sites at children at the Demonstration still were receiving services
the time participants entered the Project. It is unlikely, c o m p a r e d with 13% at the Comparison site. Another in-
therefore, that any differences in o u t c o m e at later waves dicator o f greater continuity is the finding that more than
could have been a result o f initial differences between 93% of the Demonstration children received a follow-up
sites. service within 30 days after leaving the hospital compared
Analysis o f covariance with Wave 1 data serving as 5 with only 47% in the Comparison group. Finally, defining
the covariate was the primary analytic technique at Waves a dropout as someone who received only one visit, 7% of
2 and 3. In this simple endpoint analysis, the Wave 1 the clients at the Demonstration dropped out as compared
covariate controls for individual differences in pathology with more than 18% at the Comparison.
at intake. Most o f the o u t c o m e measures showed a large Only 9% o f the children at the Demonstration were
drop in pathology from Wave 1 to Wave 2 (6 months) hospitalized or placed in an RTC c o m p a r e d with 16% at
followed by a smaller drop from Wave 2 to Wave 3 for the Comparison site. Children at the Demonstration re-
both sites. Overall, at Wave 2, there were three significant ceived an average of two to three different types o f services
site differences, two favoring the Comparison and all three c o m p a r e d with the one to two at the Comparison site.
having small (SDs < .25) effect sizes. At Wave 3 (12 Parents at the Demonstration also reported that they were
months), there were two significant results favoring the more satisfied with the match between their children's
Demonstration. Only five small differences suggest that and family's needs and the services received.
mental health outcomes were equivalent at the D e m o n - Figure 1 summarizes the indicators o f service uti-
stration and Comparison. lization related to quality in the box labeled higher quality
More focused analyses that were based on the pro- system of care. The Demonstration had greater continuity
gram theory predicted better outcomes at the D e m o n - in care and fewer dropouts, used less restrictive settings,
stration for those who received intermediate care, children provided more individualized care, and delivered services
who received more than outpatient services, children with quicker. All of the differences in utilization were statis-
severe psychopathology and impairment, children from tically significant. As described in the next section, this
families with multiple problems, and children with more enhanced system performance had important cost
than one type o f clinical diagnosis. In each analysis, out- implications.
comes were measured by the key o u t c o m e variables at The Demonstration costs were m u c h higher than
Wave 2 and Wave 3. Although overall there were slightly the Comparison for the three-year study period. The
more findings than were expected from chance alone, the Demonstration spent an average o f $7,777 per treated
results favored the Demonstration and Comparison sites child c o m p a r e d with $4,904 at the Comparison site for
equally. the three years studied. The cost per eligible child, deter-
mined by dividing the total cost by the n u m b e r of children
Client Satisfaction
who were eligible to receive services in the catchment
Both adolescents and parents were surveyed about their area, averaged $1,056 at the Demonstration c o m p a r e d
satisfaction with individual service elements (e.g., out- with $321 at the Comparison site.
patient) and overall satisfaction with services. Both sites The costs o f treating the average child at the Dem-
showed a great deal o f satisfaction with services, but there onstration were higher because o f longer time spent in
was significantly more satisfaction expressed at the D e m - treatment, greater volume of traditional services, heavy
onstration, especially about services unique to the use o f intermediate services, and higher per-unit costs.
Demonstration. When considering only those services available at both
s i t e s (outpatient therapy, hospitalization, and RTC), the
Cost-Utilization Outcomes
average expenditure per treated child for these services
The Cost-Utilization Study c o m p a r e d service use and at the Demonstration was $4,696, only 4% less than that
the costs o f those services for all children treated (in-
cluding, but not limited to, those participating in the 5 Random coefficientslongitudinal models were also used, instead
O u t c o m e Study) at both the Demonstration and C o m - ofendpoint analyses, with the same results (Lambert & Guthrie, 1996).
parison sites. The p r o g r a m theory predicted that the con- 6 The 14% figureis not a true measure of prevalence, but the number
t i n u u m should have provided better access to services, a of children served divided by the average number of eligible children in
the catchment area. Dividing by the average size served is a means of
greater diversity in the types of services used, less care in standardizing the measure for differences in catchment area size. A mea-
the m o r e restrictive settings, and better timing and con- sure of prevalence, however,would use as a denominator the number of
tinuity of services. children who lived in the catchment area at any point during the Dem-
The D e m o n s t r a t i o n served 14% o f children who onstration period. Because families moved in and out of the catchment
lived in the c a t c h m e n t area 6 in contrast to 7% served at area during the Demonstration, this figure is no doubt larger than that
of the children livingin the catchment area on a day in a particular year.
the C o m p a r i s o n site. Clients in the Demonstration were A measure of the prevalence of mental health services use, therefore,
seen m o r e quickly. It took an average o f 17 days between would be less than 14%.

694 July 1996 American Psychologist


for the same services at the Comparison site. Children at showed that the model was implemented with great fi-
the Demonstration received new additional services, but delity. Services utilization data revealed that access to
their use of traditional services was reduced only slightly. care increased dramatically and that children at similar
The outcome sample was used to determine if the levels of impairment were more likely to be treated with-
cost differences were in fact due to different services and out an institutional stay at the Demonstration. These
not differences in the types of children treated. Data from findings are evidence that an implementation failure at
comparable children in the Outcome Study showed that the Demonstration site was unlikely to have occurred.
the average cost of Demonstration children, depending
Were the Clinical Services Effective?
on the severity of the child's condition, was from 1.5 to
2.5 times more than the Comparison children. The dif- The second way the continuum could have appeared in-
ference in average expenditures per child does not reflect effective was if the clinical services themselves were not
differences in the mix of children treated. effective. In other words, the Demonstration could have
faithfully implemented all the aspects of the theory and
Discussion still there might have been no enhanced clinical impact
The Fort Bragg Demonstration was designed to examine found if the mental health services (e.g., outpatient ther-
the impact of a continuum of mental health care on chil- apy, hospitalization) provided by the Demonstration were
dren's mental health on the basis of the program theory not effective in altering clients' mental health status. These
shown in Figure 1. According to this model, the Dem- components of services could have failed to be effective
onstration had to support multiple assumptions to obtain for two reasons: They were themselves ineffective or the
the predicted outcomes. If these assumptions were not Demonstration did not implement them with sufficient
met, then the Demonstration could not produce the ul- quality.
timate effects, namely, improved mental health outcome, The Evaluation documented the Demonstration's
quicker recovery, lower costs per client, and better client implementation of key aspects of the continuum of care
satisfaction. This discussion focuses on the failure to find theory and its proximal effects on utilization but was un-
better mental health outcomes and lower costs. However, able to judge the effectiveness of individual service com-
several alternative explanations for the clinical outcomes ponents because it was not designed to test individual
need to be reviewed before it can be concluded that there components &the system. The pragmatic and economical
was no support for the continuum of care theory. substitute for studying each component of care was an
There are three assumptions underlying the model: assessment of the Demonstration's own QI activities
(a) the successful implementation of a system of care (e.g., (Bickman et al., 1993, 1996). However, this approach is
case management) and the clinical services (e.g., psycho- clearly not as desirable as evidence of actual effectiveness.
therapy), (b) a more basic assumption that these services Yet no single study can evaluate every aspect of care in
are clinically effective even when well implemented, and a rigorous experimental design. Nevertheless, this limi-
(c) the successful implementation of the evaluation. Thus, tation does not allow an unequivocal interpretation of
evidence concerning the implementation of the Dem- the results.
onstration's system of care and the evaluation's methods The inability of the Evaluation to show that the clin-
and evidence underlying the clinical effectiveness of ser- ical services were effective would not be a major imped-
vices provided in community settings should be closely iment if there were a substantial scientifically valid body
examined. of evidence that showed that psychotherapy with children
and adolescents is effective in community settings (Weisz
Null Effects Were Not Likely Caused by & Weiss, 1993). Furthermore, no clear scientific evidence
Implementation Failure exists that the other forms of intervention (e.g., in-home
The Demonstration had to implement appropriate com- services, hospitalization) used in the Demonstration were
ponents of service and ensure that these components were effective (Rivera & Kutash, 1994). Thus, the Demonstra-
well integrated. The services had to be available to clients tion may have very effectively delivered seemingly more
quickly to produce smooth transitions from one service appropriate services in a higher quality system of care
level to another. The service needs of clients had to be that were nonetheless ineffective. A very impressive
carefully monitored and changes in those needs adapted structure was built on a very weak foundation.
to quickly. If the Demonstration did not implement these
Implementation of the Evaluation
features of the theory, then this study would not have
been a valid test of the theory. Moreover, both services A poorly designed and implemented evaluation may also
and their management had to be available and of sufficient mask a treatment effect. The quality of the evaluation
quality (i.e., excellent case management cannot affect can be assessed from a validity framework that focuses
clinical outcomes unless appropriate mental health ser- on four different types of validity: (a) statistical validity,
vices are available to manage). Demonstration manage- (b) internal validity, (c) construct validity, and (d) external
ment and staff were responsible for the appropriate im- validity (Hedrick, Bickman, & Rog, 1993).
plementation of the theory at the systems level. Statistical validity. The statistical power (i.e., the
Data from the Implementation (Heflinger, 1993, ability of an evaluation to detect an effect that is really
1996) and Quality Studies (Bickman et al., 1993, 1996) there) of an evaluation is crucial, especially when trying

July 1996 American Psychologist 695


to explain nonsignificant effects. An underpowered design (NIMH) will allow us to follow the families in this study
would result in a finding of no difference when, in fact, for up to four years after entering treatment. However,
there may be a difference between the treatment and con- because the scores of both Demonstration and Compar-
trol groups. Whereas several variables contribute to the ison children are close to what is considered normal for
power of the design, the clearest and most easily controlled the population on the Child Behavior Check List (CBCL),
variable is sample size. The initial planning of the eval- it is unlikely that differences will emerge in the future
uation included a sufficiently large sample to detect an unless the Comparison children start getting worse instead
effect size of clinical importance. An empirical estimate of better. Because we know so little about the natural
of power that was based on Monte Carlo modeling (Lam- course of disorders in such a heterogeneous population,
bert, 1993) showed that the evaluation had sufficient it is possible that as the adolescents pass through the crit-
power (.80) to detect effect sizes as small as .25 standard ical transition to young adulthood that regression might
deviations. The Evaluation's inability to find statistically Occur.
significant differences was not likely caused by insufficient Finally, some aspects of the model presented in Fig-
statistical power. The critical lesson here is that in a field ure 1 were not adequately measured in the Evaluation.
with uncertain measures and effects, large sample sizes In particular, there is no established method for deter-
are necessary if there is going to be confidence that the mining whether the clinical assessments in the Demon-
possible null effects are true. From a policy perspective, stration led to better treatment plans as hypothesized.
this means that studies of this nature are going to be Both assessment and treatment planning are thought to
expensive and time-consuming. be important in affecting outcomes, but the necessary
Internal validity. Internal validity refers to the research to demonstrate this has yet to be accomplished.
ability to link causally the Demonstration to an outcome Our concern about the ability of clinicians to per-
(i.e., to have confidence that the Demonstration, and not form key tasks required in a continuum of care was
another variable, caused any observed differences between heightened by the results of a study conducted subsequent
the Demonstration and Comparison sites). The most to the evaluation. This study found that clinicians were
plausible threats to internal validity in this study were not able to reliably agree on the assignment of children
the initial and subsequent equivalency of the Demon- to different levels of care (Bickman, Karver, & Schut,
stration and Comparison samples most often called "se- 1995).
lection artifacts" and "differential attrition." Bickman, The other facet of construct validity, the construct
Guthrie, et al. (1995) and Breda (1996) provide detailed of cause, could have been compromised if the Comparison
information showing the initial and subsequent equiva- site system of care was equivalent to the Demonstration
lency of the Demonstration and Comparison Evaluation (i.e., the Comparison site also provided a continuum of
samples. Again, confidence in the results would have been care). However, the Comparison site provided (a) no single
improved if a randomized experiment could have been point of entry, (b) no comprehensive and standardized
conducted. Randomized designs in children's services at intake procedure, (c) no multidisciplinary treatment
the systems level are difficult to implement but are pos- teams, (d) no case management, and (e) no intermediate
sible. A randomized study currently being conducted in services. It is not likely that the equivalent clinical out-
Stark County, Ohio, should provide further clarification comes found could be explained by pointing to equivalent
about the relationship between system-level reform and systems of care.
clinical outcomes (Bickman, Summerfelt, & Douglas, in External validity. Generalizabilit); or the exter-
press). nal validity of the results, is concerned with whether the
Construct validity. Two different aspects of con- results generalize to other populations and to other op-
struct validity are of concern here, the construct of cause erationalizations of the continuum of care (Costner, 1989;
and construct of effect (Cook & Shadish, 1994). The Sussman & Robertson, 1986). The external validity of
Demonstration could be seen as ineffective if measure- this study was examined by (a) comparing it with other
ment of the outcomes or effects was faulty, a distinct pos- systems interventions, (b) examining the similarity of the
sibility given the infancy of measurement in this field. To client population to other populations, and (c) analyzing
guard against the danger of selecting inappropriate or in- the degree to which client characteristics differentially
sensitive measures, several steps were taken in planning influenced the success of a continuum of care.
the evaluation. First, most of the outcome measures were Other system interventions. It is illuminating
widely used. Second, for the most critical outcome (men- to compare the Fort Bragg Demonstration with other re-
tal health status), multiple measures were obtained from cent major system reform efforts, in particular two other
several informants. Third, the evaluation had validated demonstration projects and a new federal program. The
the instruments on the project data (Bickman, Guthrie, two demonstration projects, sponsored by the Robert
et al., 1995). Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF), were conducted
Another measurement variable to consider was the contemporaneously with the Demonstration. These re-
length of the follow-up period. It is not clear how long sembled the Demonstration in that they examined the
clients, especially children and adolescents, need to be implementation and effects of integrating mental health
followed before an effect is manifested. A competitive re- services through a centralized continuum of care. How-
newal grant from the National Institute of Mental Health ever, the RWJF projects were more ambitious and broader

696 July 1996 American Psychologist


in scope in attempting to show that multiple public agen- The Fort Bragg Demonstration, because of the single
cies could pool resources and develop and implement a funding source, was required only to implement a con-
system of care. The RWJF provided funds for project tinuum of care. The Fort Bragg Demonstration was a less
management, technical assistance, program evaluation, complicated and more direct test of the continuum of
and case management, while the communities were to care theory.
develop the financing required to support the full array Systems of care cannot affect clinical outcomes un-
of services. In contrast, in the Fort Bragg Demonstration, less children receive services that they would not have
the development and management of the system and all received had there not been a change at the system level.
services were fully funded from the start. Graphically, this flow model is shown below:
The program model of the RWJF Program on
Chronic Mental Illness for Adults proposed that a cen- system change --~ continuum of care
tralized mental health authority would result in expanded clinical outcomes.
services and resources and thus would improve client
outcomes. The evaluation concluded that The results of this study apply to these other interventions
because they were based on a continuum of care similar
a mental health authority might be necessary, but not sufficient to Fort Bragg's.
to create a comprehensive system of services. Most of the cities Other populations of children. A comparison
improved the availability of services, especially case manage-
of children in the Fort Bragg Demonstration and other
ment, but none had a truly comprehensive system of community
support services by the end of the Demonstration. (Goldman, populations (Breda, 1996) showed that the military de-
Morrissey, & Ridgely, 1994, p. 42) pendent children who participated in the Evaluation were
similar to middle- and lower-middle-class children and
Given the shortfall in services, it was not surprising that adolescents treated in the civilian sector. Thus, the pop-
the evaluators found that this RWJF demonstration did ulation that was studied in this Demonstration is most
not affect client outcomes, such as quality of life, when similar to the estimated 68% of the children in the United
compared with other sites (Goldman et al., 1994; Leh- States who are covered by private health insurance (Cutler
man, Postrado, Roth, McNary, & Goldman, 1994; Shern, & Gruber, 1995). However, the Demonstration differed
Wilson, & Coen, 1994). Similar in program design to the in a major way from the RWJF youth project and the
adult demonstration, the Mental Health Services Program Comprehensive Community Mental Health Services
for Youth (MHSPY) was conducted by Brandeis Univer- Program. The clients in these programs were mainly poor,
sity (England & Cole, 1992; Saxe, Cross, Lovas, & Gard- publicly funded children from multiproblem families.
ner, 1995). Unfortunately, the evaluation of the MHSPY The Demonstration's children were primarily from two-
did not include collection of comprehensive and system- parent families with good education and middle to lower
atic outcome data at the client level nor any comparison incomes. Would the continuum of care operate the same
sites. Both demonstrations illustrate some difficulties in way with children who were from poorer environments?
making systems of care changes in the community, as The complexity of the continuum and its demands
observed by the U.S. General Accounting Office (1992). on the primary caretaker's time and commitment also
The passage of the Comprehensive Community may m a k e it more difficult for families with multiple
Mental Health Services Program for Children and Ado- problems to stay in treatment. For example, parents in
lescents with Severe Emotional Disturbances (SED), the Demonstration reported expending significantly more
signed into law on July 10, 1992 (Part E of Title V, section resources on travel related to their child's treatment.
561 et seq. of the Public Health Service Act), provides However, a continuum may have been more effective with
funds for assessment, case management, outpatient ser- these families because it would have provided the support
vices, day treatment, in-home services, respite care, ther- that they needed to receive and stay in services. The in-
apeutic foster care, and group homes for children with ability to specify how client characteristics would function
SED. This $60-million program, now in more than 20 in a continuum may reflect the immaturity of the con-
sites, is comparable in some ways to the Fort Bragg con- tinuum of care theory. However, the results of the Eval-
tinuum of care. Because the Demonstration and this pro- uation show that the impact of the continuum on mental
gram share a c o m m o n heritage and they are based on health outcomes was not different for multiproblem fam-
similar principles, the results of this evaluation are rele- ilies or for those clients of different socioeconomic status
vant to this major federal initiative. or demographic characteristics. The present study pro-
The continuum was central to these three system vided no indication that the continuum would be ex-
reform efforts in that the system that was to be developed pected to work better with clients who were more
in each community was a continuum of care, but the impoverished.
continuum had to be preceded by interagency coordi- The Demonstration provided the optimal conditions
nation and pooling of funds. These initial efforts can be under which to test a continuum of care theory. As Pal-
described as developing a system of care in contrast to a umbo and Olivrio (1989) recognized, "The concern of
continuum of care. For these programs to show positive external validity is generalizing to future applications. In
clinical and cost outcomes, both a system of care and a doing this, we should be concerned with whether a better
continuum of care had to be successfully implemented. program can be put into place in future locations" (p.

July 1996 American Psychologist 697


342). Future system reform efforts are not likely to have Why Did the Continuum Cost More?
the extensive financial and personnel resources of the
It was reported earlier that the Demonstration kept chil-
Demonstration. If the continuum was not effective under
dren in care longer, had higher per-unit costs, had a higher
these advantageous conditions (i.e., abundant funds, small
volume of traditional services, and extensively used in-
interagency problems, intact families), then it is unlikely
termediate services. It is not possible, in this study, to
it will be more successful in more difficult and complex disaggregate the relative contributions of several causal
contexts. variables that can be hypothesized to have affected the
Relevance to managed c a r e . The Demonstra- utilization and costs at the Demonstration. All of the fol-
tion was planned and implemented before most of the lowing variables could have been related to higher Dem-
current managed care systems were begun. Clearly, the onstration costs: no cost to clients, the cost-reimburse-
cost control assumptions made in the Demonstration are ment contract for the Demonstration (but not to provid-
not followed in contemporary managed care operations. ers), the Demonstration's belief that primarily controlling
In fact, this study provided little support for placing so hospitalization would reduce costs, the lack of a fully
much control in the hands of clinicians and their man- operational utilization review process, the strong belief
agers. After the Evaluation results were reported, the that significant cost control would be achieved by the
Demonstration removed much of the direct control of assumed ability to assign children to the "appropriate"
placement and length-of-care determination from case level of care, the lack of a clear procedure for determining
managers and treatment teams to more distally located when treatment should be terminated, and so on. All
personnel. This move may have contributed to the cost these variables could have been responsible for the uti-
reductions reported by the clinical director (Lane, 1996). lization pattern obtained and the subsequent higher costs
However, the managed care (in contrast to managed costs) at the Demonstration. Future research needs to focus on
aspects of the Demonstrations have more relevance to these variables. Approaches both to study and to train
current managed care efforts. individuals to make judgments about level and length of
The Demonstration can be described as one variety care are needed, especially in a managed care environ-
of managed care. A leader in this field suggested the ment where these decisions are often centralized. Again,
following: there are major gaps in our knowledge about basic treat-
ment decisions.
Managed care has taken on a number of different meanings. To
some it means any form of peer review to limit utilization, while Conclusions
others interpret it to mean active case management of a patient's
treatment to coordinate and assure continuity of care. (Bros- This study has shown that systems reforms can be suc-
kowski, 1991, p. 8) cessfully implemented with sufficient resources that can
increase access, treat children in less restrictive environ-
Goodman, Brown, and Deitz (1992) provided a simpler ments, and significantly improve satisfaction. However,
definition of managed behavioral health care as "any pa- the notion that costs can be controlled by clinicians and
tient care that is not determined solely by the provider" their managers by placing children in what they believe
(p. 5). Case managers and treatment teams assigned the to be the most "appropriate" level of care for the most
Demonstration children to a level of ca)e using written "appropriate" length of time was not supported. This
guidelines, as suggested by Olsen, Rickles, and Travlik clinical judgment model was not cost-effective. These
(1995) in their definition of the managed care process. higher costs were primarily related to longer treatment
Reimbursement strategies are another aspect of managed and to the use of more expensive intermediate-level ser-
care in some definitions. Landress and Bernstein (1993) vices, without a significant reduction in the use of the
stated, "Managed mental health care organizations pro- traditional services (i.e., outpatient, hospital, and RTC).
vide comprehensive inpatient and outpatient services, in- However, this method of cost control is not an intrinsic
cluding alcohol and drug abuse, using a variety of reim- aspect of a continuum of care. Although costs per treated
bursement techniques" (p. 36). The Demonstration child were much higher at the Demonstration, we should
management qualified all providers and negotiated pay- not conclude that a continuum of care is necessarily more
ment rates. There was a utilization review function that expensive than other services systems. A continuum of
was especially effective for restrictive forms of residential care model may be less expensive under a capitated or
care. The Demonstration can be considered an example fixed-price cost model.
of managed care because it contained elements thought The most unanticipated finding of the evaluation is
necessary for managing care, namely, case managers and the lack of differences in clinical outcomes between the
treatment teams who assigned and reviewed provider care Demonstration and Comparison sites. These results
decisions as well as required treatment plans and their should raise serious doubts about some current clinical
review by management; level-of-care criteria; a utilization beliefs. For example, Whittington (1992), in a very in-
review process; certification of and contracting with pro- formative chapter on clinical myths, asserted that "there
viders; and a quality improvement system. Financial risk can be no doubt of the clinical value of a system that
is not necessary to describe the Demonstration as man- promotes continuity within a managed care environ-
aged care. ment" (p. 235). There is widespread support for reforming

698 July 1996 American Psychologist


systems of care, apparently on the basis of their presumed system (e.g., case management) do result in different ser-
clinical effectiveness. vices being received, but no study has reported a signif-
The Evaluation showed that the Demonstration had icant consistent enhancement in clinical outcomes (Bums,
(a) a more systematic and comprehensive assessment and Farmer, Angold, Costello, & Behar, in press; Catron &
treatment planning approach, (b) more parent involve- Weiss, 1994; Cauce et al., 1994; Cauce, Morgan, Wagner,
ment, (c) case management, (d) more individualized ser- & Moore, 1995; Clark et al., 1994; Evans et al., 1994;
vices, (e) fewer treatment dropouts, (f) a greater range of Harris, Jacobs, Weiss, & Catron, 1995; Huz, Evans, Mor-
services, (g) enhanced continuity of care, (h) more services rissey, & Burns, 1995; Lee, Clark, Knapp-Inez, Factor,
in less restrictive environments, and (i) better match be- & Stewart, 1995). This and similar research suggest that
tween services and needs as judged by parents. Still, better the mental health field has skipped over a whole gener-
clinical outcomes were not found. Thus, conventional ation of research in moving directly from the laboratory-
wisdom about what is a better quality system of care is based treatment efficacy studies to system reform efforts
called into question. A fragmented system of care, without without sufficiently studying the effectiveness of clinical
these features, did as well clinically and was less expensive. services as delivered in community settings.
Moreover, the ability of a system of care to influence clin- This study also implies that if managed care focuses
ical outcomes is limited by the logical difficulty in ex- only on system reform, it can be expected to influence
pecting that distal events such as systems changes affect access, cost, and satisfaction, but is unlikely to improve
clinical outcomes (Salzer & Bickman, in press). Appar- clinical outcomes unless it also reforms the actual services
ently, similar counterintuitive findings have been reported delivered. However, there is little research to provide
for primary care settings. For example, a recent study guidance as to what changes in services are required. As
reported that there was no relationship between cost of managed behavioral health care matures as an industry,
services and quality and outcomes for six selected medical it is necessary that it invest in research and development
procedures (Starfield et al., 1994). to improve the quality of services and client outcomes.
An alternative to considering the continuum of care The private sector, besides government, needs to assume
model unsuccessful is to question the assumption that responsibility in this area.
clinical services provided in the community are effective. Researchers need to move outside their comfortable
Whereas only a few scientifically credible studies have laboratory settings to study services in community set-
examined psychotherapy in community settings, a meta- tings. Although this exhortation has been repeated in the
analysis showed that the average effect size was very close past (e.g., Bickman & Henchy, 1969), the need is urgent
to zero (Weisz, Donenberg, Han, & Weiss, 1995). This now. The mental health community is in desperate need
result is in contrast to hundreds of studies of psycho- of methodological advances and data to support its efforts.
therapy in research settings that showed significant and The need to show impact on client outcomes has never
clinically meaningful effects (Weisz & Weiss, 1993). been greater. Moreover, providers in the community
Therapeutic interventions can work. We have just not should be more willing to work closely with researchers
been able to establish their effectiveness in real-world to help to discover which interventions are effective in
conditions. There is just a handful of studies that have the real world.
examined clinical effectiveness in realistic community
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