1

Market Pulse
January 2017
Survey Methodology

Monthly online survey of more than 300 California

REALTORS.
The survey was sent via email to a random sample of
10,000 REALTORS throughout California. The sample
represented the geographical distribution of C.A.R.
membership across the state.
Respondents are asked about their last closed
transaction and business activity in their market area for
the previous month.
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Market Conditions
 Floor Calls Decreases Last Year
Index (>50 is positive)

80
70
60 60
57
50
Index

40
30 39

20
10
0

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Listing Appointments/Client Presentations Down YTY
Index (>50 is positive)
80

70
64 60
60

50
Index

40
40
30

20

10

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Open House Traffic Increases
90
Index (>50 is positive)

80

70
67 68
60

50
Index

40 43

30

20

10

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 All Cash Purchases Decreases From Last Year
Index (>50 is positive)
70

60 55
52
50

40
Index

41
30

20

10

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of off MLS/pocket listings in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Biggest Concern is Lack of Inventory
Lack of Inventory 36%

Decline in housing affordability 15%

Rising interest rates 14%

Inflated home prices 8.8%

Lending & financing 6.6%

Housing bubble 5.2%

Slow down in economic growth 3.6%

Policy & regulations 2.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 REALTORS Remain Most Concerned About Inventory
& Affordability
Inventory Affordability
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Affordability and Prices are the
Biggest Concerns for REALTORS
Prices (Affordability, Prices, Bubble) Inventory

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Market Expectations Continues to Trend Upward
Index (>50 is positive)
90
80
70 66 65 65
60
50
Index

40
30
20
10
0

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

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Last Transaction
 More Properties Selling Above Asking Price
from Year Ago
Below At Over

100%
90% 17% 25%
80% 23%

70%
36% 36%
60%
34%
50%
40%
30% 43%
47%
20%
38%
10%
0%

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Less Properties Selling Below Asking Price
from a Year Ago
Net % of Properties Selling Below/Above Asking Price

10%

0%

-11%
-10%

-20%
-30% -20%
-30%

-40%

-50%

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Premium Paid Decreases
Average

14.0%

12.0% 11%
9.8%
10.0%
8.6%
8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 % Paid Below Asking Price Increases YTY

Jul-14 Sep-14Nov-14Jan-15 Mar-15May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16Nov-16 Jan-17
0%

-5%

-10%

-13%
-15%

-17%
-20%

-22%
-25%
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 62% of Properties Received Multiple Offers
80%

70% 66% 64% 62%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Number of Offers Received Decreases
4.0 Average

3.5

3.0
2.5
2.5
2.1
2.0

1.5
1.2
1.0

0.5

0.0

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Number of Offers Received Unchanged YTY
Jan-16 Jan-17

38% 37%
40%

35%
30%
28%
30%
23%
25%

20%
14%
15%

10%
7.5%
5.7% 5.2% 5.1%
3.6%
5% 2.1%

0%
1 2 3 4 5 6+
Number of Offers

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Proportion of 3+ Offers Flat from a Year Ago
1-2 3+
100%
90% 40%
80% 34%
32%
70%
60%
50%
68%
40%
66%
30% 60%
20%
10%
0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 3+ Offers Increases in Mid-Range Prices
Jan-16 Jan-17
50%
Percentage of Properties Receiving 3+

50%
45% 41% 42% 40%
38% 37%
40% 35% 35% 35%
32% 31% 32%
35% 29%
28% 28%
30%
Offers

25%
18%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 24% of Properties Had Listing Price Reductions
35%

30%
26%
25% 24% 24%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Proportion of Buyers Who Were Renters Increases
60%

49%
50%
44%

40% 38%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 More Sellers Became Renters than Last Year
25%

20% 19%

15%

11%
9.5%
10%

5%

0%

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Share of First-time Buyers Increases
45% % First-time Buyers Long Run Average
39%
40%

35%
30%
30%

25%
26%
20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Majority Purchases are Primary Residences
Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Share of Investment Properties Decreased
Investment Vacation home
30%

25%

20% 5.1%

15%
4.7%

10%
17%

5% 11%

0%

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Proportion of International Buyers Declined
% International Buyers Long Run Average (6.3%)

12%

10%

8%
5.8%
6% 6.4%

4% 5.0%

2%

0%

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Top 10 Counties of Respondents
December 2016 January 2017
1 Los Angeles Los Angeles

2 Orange Riverside

3 Riverside Sacramento

4 San Diego Orange

5 Contra Costa San Diego

6 Alameda San Bernardino

7 Kern Contra Costa

8 Ventura Stanislaus

9 Sacramento San Mateo

10 San Bernardino Butte

Q: In which county do you live?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey