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Robert Simons
Harvard Business School, Boslon
Contributors:
Antonio Ddvila
IESE, University of Navarra, Barcelona
Robgrt S. Kaplan
HarvarU Busine.ss School. Boston
. To lranslate the strategy of the business into a detailed plan to create value. Tltis
process requues managers to agree on assumptions, evaluate strategic a-lternatives, and
arrive at a consensus regarding a business strategy and its ability to satisfy the demands
of different constituencies.
. Tb evaluate whether sfficient resources are available to implement the intended strat-
eg),.Companies need resources to fnance their current operations (operating cash) and
to invest in new assets for future growth (investment cash).
' Tb create a foundation to link economic goals with leading indicators of strategy i1np1s-
mentation. To implement strategy successfully, flnancial goals must be linked with key
business input, process, and output measures.
To build a profit plan, managers need to answer three different questions relating
to the economics of their business.
First, managers must ask, does the organization's strategy create economic value?
Strategies may sound attractive when described by proponents in bright words and col-
orfrrl phrases, but strategies need to be translated into accounting numbers to evaluate
how they actually create value. Does it pay to invest in a new strategic opporhrnity?
How attractive are different strategic alternatives? Boston Retail has been successful
with its line of clothing for women college students. However, the fashion market
BUILDING A PR.oFIr Puqn 79
CHAPTER
'
Cash Wheel
so,rceiRobertSimons,..Templat6forProfitPlmiog',,Boston:HmrdBusinessSchoolCase9l199l:032.1998.
Theprofitplanprovidesinformatiolontheeconomicresourcesavailabletothe
companyandhelps**ug",.*aluatethetrade-offsfacingthem.Differentstrategiesre-
opening new
Retail, the inveitment plan for
quire different investm#ts For Boston to the product
the tu-" fturr neef! to add furniture
clothing stores in New York is not
line.Perhapsmanagerswo,rafiketoi"ve'tinallofthesealternatives'butresources
arelimitedarrdmanagersareforcedtolaketrade-offs.Itisnoteasytochoose:Some
expansion' whereas others may
pre-
mana ay favor geographical
fer to
CHAPTER5 BUILDING A PROFIT PLAN 8I
Cash Wheel
Profit Wheel
EXTIIBIT 5-1
Boston Retail
20X1 Operating Results with Key Assumptions for 20X2
2OX1 ACTUAL
(x ruouseNos
on oou-nns) KEY ASSI.A{PTIONS FOR 2OX2
Income Statement
$9,200 107o sales growth
Sales
Costs of goods sold 4.780 sarrrc Vo of sales as 20Xl
Gross margin 4,420
Wages and salaries 1,530 4Vo fitowth
Rent and facilities 840 57o growth
Advertising 585 smne Vo of sales as 20Xl
Administrative exPenses 435 sarrc Vo of sales as 20Xl
Interest 72 estimated at 65
DePreciation 57 add depreciation of new assets
Assets
Cash $ 208 Cash stay at same a/o level of cash expenses
will
Accounts receivable 255 Accorrnts rrceivable at same Volevel of sales
In','entory 985 Inventorl' at same % of cost of goods soid
Property, plant, and equipment 1,854 Property, plant, and equipment increases by new
investment
Other assets 325 Other assets :upby 5OVa
Total assets $3.627
Liabilities
Accounts payable $ 209 Accounts payable at same Vo of cost of goods sold
Bank loan 1,180 Pay back dcbt of $100,000
Stockholders' equity 2.238
Total liabilities and
stockholders' equity $3,627
generate proflts that are reinvested in to generate more sales. Over time, alrnost
assets
every decision in a company impacts fhe level of sales. However, managers consider
most carefully those decisions that have direct influence on sales during the current
planning period, such as:
CHAPTER 5 BUILDING A PROFIT PLAN 85
The second category of operating expenses is nonvariable costs. As the name im-
plies, norwariable costs do ruot vary directly with the level of sales. However, it wotrld be
i -irtut" to think that they do not vary at all (thus, we avoid calling them fixed costs).
These costs are typically large and have become a higher percentage ofthe operating ex-
penses of most companies in recent yeals. Nonvariable costs are of three types:
. Committed (or engineered) costs. Some expenses are determined by previous manage-
ment decisions and, therefore, are not subject to discretion during the current proflt
planning period. Depreciation is usually a committed cost because it depends on past
investmint decisionJ and company accounting policies. The salaries of managers, engi-
neers, and long-term employees are normally also committed costs, as is the cost of a
long-term lease.
3
This altemative reduces variable costs in percentage terms because sales revenue-the denominator-goes uP
CHAPTERS BUILDINC A PROFIT PI..AN 87
profit is the flnancial measure of ihe economic value that is available for distribu-
tion to the residual claimants-equity holders-or for reinvestment in the business.
Proflt is the most important number in evaluating the financial performance of any
company.
Lawrence Bossidy, cEo of Aliied Signal, has strong opinions about proflt planning:
"one of the first things that struck me when I came here was that it was more or
less accepted practice that you put a pian together and then rnissed it. we don't
need meaningless targets. We neec an operating plan that recognizes that underly-
ing assumptions are often wrong and that provides options when that happens.
"Good flnance people are ihe ones who can help give real meaning to operat-
ing plans. when you say you're going to get a 6vo improvement in productivitv,
they're the ones who are supposed to ask where, What are the projects? When are
they going to be done? How much mcney are they going to be providing? If we're
going to grow by 5Vo, they ask the tough questions: Where are we going to grow?
What products are going to grow by 5vo2 How are we going to get price increases?
Good financial involvement is critical in constructing a sound operating plan; it re-
ally drives at the particulars."
Source: Noel M. Tichy and Ram Charari, "The CEO as Coach: An Interview with Allied Signal's Lawrence A.
Bossidy," Ilarvard Business Review 73 (March-April 1995): 68-7S.
CASH WHEEL
Before a profit plan can be accepted as feasible, managers must forecast whether the
company will have enough cash to operate (cash wheel) and whether the return to in-
vestors is sufficiently attractive (ROE wheei). If either of these critical consfraints is not
met, then managers must go back to the drawing board and adjust the profit plan.
The cash wheel (Figure 5-3 on page 92) illustrates the operating cash flow cycle
of a business: Sales of products and services to customers generate accounts receivable,
which are eventually turned into cash; this cash is used to produce inventory, which
in turn can be used to generate more sales. However, depending on the nature of
the business, considerable time can elapse between the moment that the company
disburses cash to purchase inventory and pay operating expenses until it receives
cash from customers for goods and services received. During this period of time, the
company may have to borrow from lenders to cover its ongoing operating and capital
expenses.
Looking at the cash'wheel, we chn understand why a company may need more or
less operatirg cash, depending on its industry and its strategy. High levels of inventory
require more operating cash to finance the inventory. Similarly, if credit terms to cus-
tomers are 60 days instead of 30 days, the company needs to borrow more from the
bank to cover its cash outflows during the additional 30 days. Conversely, a company
can reduce its operating cash by delaying payments to its suppliers, usually by negotiat-
ing better credit terms.
CHAPTER5 BUILDING A PROFIT PLAN 9I
5
The sustainable growth rate of any business is defined as
Assets
Step 3: Price the Acquisition and Divestiture of Long'1snn
of investment and cash' At
Different strategies and initiatives will require different levels
new com-
Boston Retaii, the investment plan for 20X2 (Exhibit 5-2)
suggests that the
puter system, warehouse exp^ansion, and store dispiays will require $260,000'
This
EXHIBIT 5-5
Boston Retail
Cash Plan for 20X2
(Prepared using EBITDA)
20x2
Cashatthebeginningoftheyear $ 208
EBITDA I,I7I
-vVo
Chan g e s in rkin g C aP i t al
Decrease (increase) in accounts receivable
(26)
Decrease (increase) in inventory
(e8)
2L
lncrease (decrease) in accounts payable
Cash flow from operating activities 1,068
equipment, however, manufacturers disburse most of their operating cash for the pro-
duction and distribution of skis at least five monlhs earlier. As a result, these businesses
need the most borrowing at the beginning of the season, when they have used up all
their cash to manufacture inventory but have not yet received any cash from customers.
Estimating the aggregate or average difference between cash inflows and cash outflows
over the entire year will not reveal the shortfall that occurs before che ski season begins.
Managers in these companies may pay a lot of attention to weekly cash requirements
during the few critical months before the start of the season.
The cash wheel higtrlights the fact that all businesses have a significant amount of
resources tied up in accounts receivable, inventory and other working capital accounts.
As a result, managers must work diligently to accelerate the flows around the cash
wheel, thereby freeing up cash for investment. finarrcing, or operations growth.
CFO Magazine conducted a survey of large public companies in 32 industries to
learn how effectively managers were able to turn working capital into cash. In their sam-
ple, the average company earned $4.2 billion in revenue and generated roughly 9 cents
of cash flow for every dollar of sales. On average these companies collected from cus-
tomers every 5C days, paid suppliers every 33 days, and turned inventory i 1 times per
year. For the largest companies in the sample, the authors of the survey noted a "rule of
30": they collect bills in 30 days, pay bills in 30 days, and turn invento4v in 30 days.
Although all companies can benefit from managing the cash wheel more effi-
ciently, the savings for large companies can be truly significant. For example, Owens
Corning recovered $175 million from managing its working capital more effectively;
General Motors set a goal lor 1997 to find $10 billion in working capital savings.6
ROE WHEEL
Businesses that earn tire rnost profit will be betier off: They will have srore resources to
invest in future opportunities; they will be able to pay higher dividends to investors;
their stock price will be higher; and their cost of debt will be lorryer. Thus, profit can be
considered both a constraint and a goal: A minirnum level of profit is necessary for sur-
vival (a constraint), but more is always better than less (a goal).
Both stock price and dividend payments depend on a business's ability to generate
profits from the invcstments that stockholders make in the business. In the most basic
sense, when a stockholder invests $100 in a firm, the managers of the lirm use the $100
Lo purchase assets, which are then deployed to earn profit for the benefit of the stock-
holder- The critical measure, therefore, is the amount of profit that managers are able to
generate from the $100 investment entrusted to them. If the business generates $20,
profit can be measured intwo ways. First, the business could report a $20 profit-an
absolute measure of success. Alternatively, managers could calculate the retur'n on
shareholders' investment by comparing the profit output ($20) wiih the investment input
($1001. In this case, the return on the stockholder investment of $100 would be ZOVo-a
ratio.
6
S. L. Mintz and C. Lazere, "I-nside the Corporate Cash Machine," CFO Magazine, trrire 1997, 54-62.
CHAPTER 5 BUILDING A PROFIT PLAN 99
around
As with the profit wheel and the cash wheel, we can work systematically
(see
the ROE wheel to determine if the profit to
plan is adequate meet expectations
Figure 5-4).
Invest;ncnts
oPe;'ating
) profit wheel
t1xpenses / in Assets
break
ation ratios shown and
company directors-th" p.oE ttrat is anticipated from the performance of their busi-
ness. The returns generated by other simiiar businesses provide an
easily calibrated
yardstick.
For Boston Retail, managers might compare their ROE with other
publicly traded
figures for
fashion retailers such as tne Limited, GAP, and Nike, whose comparative
1997 are as follows:
ASSET FINANCIAL
PROFIABILITY TURNOVER LEVERAGE
As with the cash wheel, if the expected ROE is not sufficiently high to meet ex-
pectations, it is back to the drawing board to find ways to increase profit or make
better
' sales
o profit or net income
. cash flow
. invesEnent in new assets
. return on equity (or ROCE)
. Det income + sales : profitability
. sales -:- assets : asset turnover
CHAPTER5 BIJILDING A PROFIT PLAN IO5
EXHIBIT 5-6
Boston Retail
Assumptions Underlying Alternative Strategies
ALTERNATTVE 1: GEOGRAPIIICAL EXPANSION INTO NEWYORK STATE
Operating Resubs
Sales per store expected to be the existing average
Cost stn:cture as in existing stores (7o of sales)
Operating Results
Expected ilcrease in sales Per store with furniture of2Od)o
Expected gross margin as ciothing iine
Administrative costs uP bY l57o
Wages and salaries uPbY 70Vo
Additional cost structure as existing business (7o of sales)
However, economic criteria alone are not enough to fully assess each strategic al-
ternative. Recall our discussion in Chapter 2. hofit plans may look attiactive but actu-
ally deplete the core competencies of the firm, or be at odds with the culrent market po-
sition of the company. During the 1980s and early 1990s, for example, Apple Computer
showed impressive economic pelformance, but the company was using up its advantage
built over the previous years without creating new competitive advantage. The result
was continuous economic problems in the 1990s. For Boston Retail, we could ask our-
selves: Are both of these strategic alternatives consistent with Boston Retail's competen-
cies? (We cover pertbrmance measurement and control systems related to this question
in Chapter 10.)
CHAPTER' BUII-DING A PROFIT PLAN 107
EXHIBIT 5-8
Boston Retail
Quarterly Cash Plan for 2AX2 for Alternative Strategies
(Prepared by estimating cash inflows and outflows)
STRAIEGIC AXTERNATTVE I
GEOGRAPHICAL EXPANSION FIRST SECOND TI{IRD FOTIRTH
INTO NEWYORK QUARTER QUARIER QUARTER QUARTER
Cash at the beginning of the quarter $ 208 $ 200 s 200 $ 200 $ 208
(cash balance at least 200)
Cash Inflows
Cash received from customers 1.91i 3,588 3,271 4,901 13,673
Borrowing required 758 15 (24) (203\ 546
Total cash inflows 2,669 3,603 3,249 4,698 14,219
Cash Outflows
Cash paid to suppliers i,136 1.930 t,844 2,649 7,559
Cash expenses 752 l,5M 1,236 1,880 5,372
Investrnent in new assets 620 620
Tax payments 94 94 94 94 3'76
Pay back debt 75 75 75 75 300
Total cash outflows 2,677 3,603 3.249 4.698 14.227
Total cash flows (8) (8)
Cash at the end of the quarter $ 200 $ 200 $ 200 $ 2oo $ 2oo
STR,AiTEGIC AXIERNATTVE 2
PRODUCT.LINE E)GANSION FIRST SECOND THIRD FOURTH
INTO FI'RNITURE QUARTER QUARTER QUARTER QUARTER TCTTAL
Cash at the beginning of the quarter $ 208 $ 200 $ 200 $ 200 $ 208
(cash balance at least 200)
Cash Inflows
Cash received from customers 1,591 2,894 2,640 3,9s4 tr,079
Borrowing required 388 (77) (93) (218) _---
Total cash inflows 1.979 2.8t7 2.547 3.736 tt.o79
Cash Outflows
Cash paid to suppliers 908 1,509 t,440 2,091 5,948
Cash expenses 565 t,129 928 I,4IL 4,033
Investrnent in new assets 33.I 335
Tax payments tu LM 104 tu 416
Pay back debt 75 75 75 75 300
Total cash outflows 1.987 2.817 2.547 3.681 _1Jp32
Total cash flows (8) 55 47
Cash at the end of the quarter $ 2oo $ 200 $ 200 $ 255 $ 2ss