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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

16 December, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


MAJOR CURRENCY VIEW POINT
Prev. Rupee Slips 39 Paise against Dollar on Fed Rate Hike
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close
USDINR 67.835 67.445 0.390 0.58% Rupee lost the ground after Federal Reserve raise the interest and
DXY INDX 102.950 101.760 1.190 1.17% given hawkish outlook signalled more rate hike in 2017. Global
EURUSD 1.043 1.054 -0.011 -1.02% financial markets reacted negatively on fed move. The dollar took front
GBPUSD 1.249 1.256 -0.007 -0.57% font on expectation of higher demand going ahead. The domestic unit
USDJPY 118.410 117.040 1.370 1.17% resumed sharply lower at 67.76 from previous closing value of 67.43.
It accelerated downward pressure after a brief period of consolidation,
DG USDINR 67.926 67.760 0.166 0.24%
sinking to hit a low of 67.87 before ending at 67.83, showing a steep
loss of 39 paise, or 0.58%. This is the rupee's biggest single day fall
GLOBAL INDICES
since November 15.
Indias November trade deficit widens to $13b; est. $10.5b deficit on
Prev. back of higher gold imports. The gold imports rise by 23.2% YoY to
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close $4.36b. While the Nov. exports rise 2.3% YoY to $20b.
SGX NIFTY 8187.0 8181.0 6 0.07%
NIFTY 8153.6 8182.5 -29 -0.35% Dollar Elevated to the level of 2003 against Euro
Dollar stood tall early morning, on track for handsome gains for the
SENSEX 26519.1 26602.8 -84 -0.31%
week, after scaling 14 year high against euro as well as basket of
HANG-SENG 22059.4 22456.6 -397 -1.77% currencies on hawkish statement by Federal Reserves on Wednesday.
NIKKEI 19273.8 19253.6 20 0.10% The euro fell by 0.1% to $1.0408, after plumbing $1.0366 yesterday,
SHANGHAI 3117.7 3140.5 -23 -0.73% headed for weekly loss of 1.4%. The dollar index, which tracks the
S&P INDEX 2253.3 2271.7 -18 -0.81% greenback against a basket of six major rival currencies, rose 0.2% to
DOW JONES 19792.5 19911.2 -119 -0.60% 103.210, after surging to 103.56 yesterday. It was up 1.6% for the
week.
NASDAQ 5436.7 5463.8 -27 -0.50%
The Bank of England said yesterday that sterling's strong performance
FTSE 6952.9 6949.2 4 0.05% over the past month could soften an expected surge in British inflation
CAC 4810.8 4769.2 42 0.87% next year, as its policymakers voted unanimously to keep interest
DAX 11321.2 11244.8 76 0.68% rates unchanged at a record low 0.25%. The officials noted sterling
had appreciated by over 6% since its latest forecasts in November.
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr) U.S. inflation data released showed consumer prices moderated in
November, but the underlying trend continued to point to firming
Segment 15-Dec-16 14-Dec-16 inflation pressures amid rising rents, which could support more interest
rate increases from the Federal Reserve next year. The CPI reading
Equity -477.07 -731.86 displayed at 1.70% from previous month 1.60%.
Debt 126.74 -411.44 First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits saw a modest
decrease in the week ended December 10th. The report said initial
jobless claims edged down to 254,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the
previous week's unrevised level of 258,000.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR climbs by 0.58% to close at 67.84, after four days of consolidation in the range of 67.32 and 67.63.
The pair had taken support around 67.30, the 61.8% Fibonacci level of previous low 66.34 to previous high 68.86.
Momentum oscillators exited from oversold conditions suggesting near term reversal.
In near term, the pair likely to move higher on positive breakout in dollar index. The USDINR could move towards 68.21 with
support of 67.30.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR 67.90 67.85 67.58 67.66 67.78 67.97 68.05 68.17 Short Covering
EURINR 70.95 71.19 69.91 70.42 70.69 71.46 71.97 72.23 Bearish
GBPINR 84.98 85.06 84.51 84.72 84.85 85.19 85.40 85.53 Bearish
JPYINR 57.39 57.59 56.55 56.96 57.18 57.80 58.21 58.43 Bearish

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk


Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.27 67.33 68.86 66.34 68.86 66.07 67.52 68.10 67.32 67.11 67.11
EURINR 73.35 71.42 75.64 70.78 77.49 70.78 71.66 72.47 73.14 73.96 74.61
GBPINR 86.88 84.83 86.88 82.31 100.49 80.89 85.17 85.42 83.62 85.58 90.00
JPYINR 60.14 58.78 66.11 57.27 68.11 53.86 58.30 60.00 62.30 64.02 63.06

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 67.77 67.89 67.69 67.84 0.39 -- -- -- --
USDINR DEC. FUT. 67.75 67.93 67.73 67.90 0.36 1813981 110120 1596072 514335
SPOT EURINR 71.07 71.29 70.78 70.82 -0.94 -- -- -- --
EURINR DEC. FUT. 71.45 71.70 70.93 70.95 -0.99 37771 3736 57225 19362
SPOT GBPINR 84.57 85.18 84.57 84.82 -0.50 -- -- -- --
GBPINR DEC. FUT. 85.19 85.27 84.93 84.98 -0.50 29269 1197 46678 11344
SPOT JPYINR 57.60 57.78 57.27 57.27 -1.42 -- -- -- --
JPYINR DEC. FUT. 57.89 58.00 57.38 57.39 -1.43 43121 5062 41842 21966

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
12/15/2016 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec P 53.7 54.9 53.7
12/15/2016 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Dec P 53.7 53.1 53.8
12/15/2016 17:30 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 15-Dec 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
12/15/2016 17:30 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Dec 435b 435b 435b
12/15/2016 19:00 US Current Account Balance 3Q -$111.0b -113.0b -$119.9b
12/15/2016 19:00 US Empire Manufacturing Dec 2.6 9.00 1.5
12/15/2016 19:00 US CPI YoY Nov 1.70% 1.70% 1.60%
12/15/2016 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 10-Dec -- 254k 258k
12/15/2016 19:00 US Continuing Claims 3-Dec -- 2018k 2005k
12/15/2016 20:15 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Dec P -- 54.2 54.1

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior


12/16/2016 15:30 EC Trade Balance SA Oct 25.0b 24.9b
12/16/2016 15:30 EC CPI YoY Nov F 0.60% 0.50%
12/16/2016 19:00 US Housing Starts Nov 1230k 1323k
12/16/2016 19:00 US Building Permits Nov 1243k 1260k

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]