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HSL PCG Currency Insight-Weekly

31 December, 2016
Rupee Marks for Best Monthly Advance Since July but Weaken For Six
Annual in Row
Rupee ends a two-month slide and climbs 0.7% in December, most in
Asia after Indonesias rupiah. The RBI aggressively sold dollars in
Currency Prev. %
December and that contributed to the rupees outperformance. However,
the local currency depreciated 2.7% to close at 67.92 from previous
DXY Index 102.21 103.01 -0.80 -0.78% years 66.15. It marks sixth straight annual loss against American dollar.
EURUSD 1.0517 1.0456 0.01 0.58% Rupee is depreciating since 2011 and wakened 34.19% against the dollar
from 44.71 a dollar on 31 December 2010 to 67.92 a dollar now.
GBPUSD 1.2340 1.2282 0.01 0.47%
Yield on sovereign notes due Sept. 2026 has fallen 3 bps this week to
USDJPY 116.96 117.33 -0.37 -0.32%
close at 6.515, putting bonds on course for first weekly gain in five. The
USDINR 67.9238 67.8250 0.10 0.15% Bonds in India see best year since 2008 as yield were soften around a
EURINR 71.6770 70.8690 0.81 1.14%
per-cent even after FII outflows in debt for the year were around $5
GBPINR 83.4892 83.1775 0.31 0.37%
In near term, spot USDINR would consolidate in broad range of 67.40 to
JPYINR 58.1100 57.7800 0.33 0.57% 68.40 for the coming month.
DGCX USDINR 68.1431 68.0921 0.05 0.07% Dollar Register Fourth Consecutive Annual Gain; Expected to hold
gains for coming months

RBI Reference Rate The dollar register fourth consecutive annual gain as measured by the
dollar index, set to close out 2016 with a gain of 3.7% after rising as
much as 5.1% at its peak on Dec. 20. The index rose about 7.1% during
Prev. %
Currency Last
the fourth quarter, more than half that gain coming since the November
8 US presidential election on expectations that US President-elect Donald
USDINR 67.9547 67.9117 0.04 0.06% Trump's plan to boost fiscal stimulus would benefit the currency.
EURINR 71.6175 70.9474 0.67 0.94% The gains for the year were led by a more than 16.3% advance against
GBPINR 83.4212 83.4839 -0.06 -0.08% Pound and more than 7% rise against the Swedish Krona while dollar
dropped about 2.7% against both the yen and the Canadian while
JPYINR 58.2200 57.8800 0.34 0.59%
gaining around 3.2% vs. the euro.
We believe the dollars uptrend remains intact for first half of next year
GOI 10 Yr. Bond Yield on Fed hawkish stance but expectation large spending from newly
elected President Donald Trump could limit the gains. The dollar index
Prev. % would resist around 109.45 while 97 remains supported for coming
Instrument Last Chg. months.
Close Chg.

697GS2026 6.5150 6.5440 -0.03 -0.44%


The jobs report highlights a busy week for the U.S. economic calendar, which includes releases on December manufacturing and minutes of the December
Federal Reserve meeting at which central bank officials raised their benchmark interest rate. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump continues to fill in the blanks of
his administrations key agency offices and meet with various officials on possible policy moves ahead of the Jan. 20 inauguration. Click here for a table of his
picks so far. Germanys Christian Social Union, allied with Chancellor Angela Merkels political party, meets in Bavaria to set its agenda for the 2017 election
Monday, Jan. 2
Most global markets are closed in observance of the New Years holiday. German and Eurozone manufacturing PMI (December, final) is forecast to rise to 55.5
and 54.9 from 54.3 and 53.7 respectively. The good reading will drive the euro higher against other currencies.
Tuesday, Jan.3
China Caixin manufacturing PMI (December) is expected to fall to 50.4 from 50.9. It will directly impact the Chinese financial market, Renminbi and
metal/mining stocks
German unemployment data (December): unemployment expected to fall by 6000, while the rate holds at 6%. German inflation (December, preliminary):
price growth expected to rise to 1.4% YoY from 0.8%. UK manufacturing PMI (December): expected to fall to 53.1 from 53.4. The impact of data will see on
euro and pound.
U.S. manufacturing probably strengthened in December to an almost two-year high , indicating factories are starting to rebound. US ISM manufacturing PMI
(December): forecast to rise to 54.2 from 54.1.
Wednesday, Jan.4
UK construction PMI (December): expected to rise to 53.1 from 52.8.
Eurozone inflation (December, flash): overall CPI expected to be 0.9%, from 0.6% in November, while core inflation remains steady at 0.8%.
Fed minutes: The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee will release minutes of its Dec. 13-14 meeting, at which policy makers decided to raise rates for the
first time in a year. The minutes may shed more light on the decision and potentially provide further information on the projected three rate increases in 2017.
Thursday, Jan.5
China Caixin services PMI (December): the private sector survey is expected to fall to 52.3 from 53.1.
UK services PMI (December): this most important UK PMI reading is expected to show further strength, rising to 55.5 from 55.2. Market to watch: GBP crosses
US ADP payroll report (December): the private survey, released a day later due to the Monday holiday, is expected to see job growth of 177K from 216K a
month earlier. US initial jobless claims (w/e 31 December): claims expected to fall to 263K from 265K. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (December): expected
to hold at 57.2.
Friday, Jan.6
Eurozone business confidence (December), retail sales (November): confidence expected to rise to 0.55 from 0.42, while retail sales rise 1.8% YoY from a
2.4% rise, and fall 0.4% MoM from a 1.1% rise.
US non-farm payrolls (December): payrolls are forecast to rise by 175K, from 178L in November, while average hourly earnings rise 0.3% from a 0.1% fall a
month earlier. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.7% from 4.6%.


% CHG. % CHG. (VOL.) % CHG.
NSE INRUSD Future Jan17 68.1025 68.0700 0.0% 1520711 747633 103.4% 1100195 171940 539.9%
NSE EURINR Future Jan17 71.9275 71.2250 1.0% 36063 18320 96.9% 72301 3905 1751.5%
NSE GBPINR Future Jan17 83.8250 83.5925 0.3% 25247 18627 35.5% 38536 6278 513.8%
NSE JPYINR Future Jan17 58.3925 58.1325 0.4% 30760 5631 446.3% 34320 1389 2370.8%


USDINR Jan. Future CMP 68.10


Resistance 2 68.63
Resistance 1 68.36
Pivot 68.17
Support 1 67.90
Support 2 67.71

Buy USDINR Jan Fut. At 67.90

Dollar Index has recently shown
some correction after forming
multiple tops around 103.65
levels. This could lead USDINR
toward lower levels.
However, USINR pair has been
forming higher tops and higher
bottoms on the daily charts,
indicating bullish setup for the
short term.
The level of 68.40 is expected to
act as a resistance and the level
of 67.70 is expected to act as a
support going forward.
Strategy for the Next week should
be to buy USDINR on Dips around
67.90, for the target of 68.35,
keeping Stop loss at 67.70 on
closing basis.


EURINR Jan. Future CMP 71.93

Resistance 2 72.79
Resistance 1 72.35
Pivot 71.70
Support 1 71.25
Support 2 70.61

Buy EURINR Jan Fut. above 72

Fall in Dollar index is a indication
that currencies like Euro is getting
appreciating against US Dollar.
This could also have bullish
implications for the pair like
Last week, we saw rounding
bottom formation on the daily
chart of EURINR Jan Future, which
indicates the bullish trend reversal
for the pair.
Recently pair has been taking
resistance at 72 odd levels. Any
level above 72 in EURNR Jan fut.
could trigger momentum buying.
RSI has exited the oversold zone
on the daily charts which
strengthen the chances of bullish
reversal for the Pair.
We advising going long in EURINR
Jan Fut. above 72, for the target of
74, keeping SL at 71.


GBPINR Jan. Future CMP 83.83

Resistance 2 84.59
Resistance 1 84.19
Pivot 83.90
Support 1 83.49
Support 2 83.20


After 3 weeks consecutive fall,
GBPINR pair registered some relief
rally last week with a rise of 0.80%.
Recent up move seems to be more
of a dead cat bounce than reversal
in overall bearish trend.
Overall trend of the pair has been
bearish with lower tops and lower
bottoms on the weekly and monthly
Any level below 83.40 could lead to
fresh breakdown on the short term
Resistance for the pair is placed at
84.42, which happened to be
33.3% retracement of the entire
downswing seen from 87 to 83 odd
We advise selling GBPINR below
83.40, for the targets of 82.30 and
81.40, keeping SL at 84.45.


JPYINR Jan. Future CMP : 58.39


Resistance 2 59.19
Resistance 1 58.78
Pivot 58.44
Support 1 58.03
Support 2 57.69

Sell JPYINR Jan Fut. Below 58,

SL 58.60, Tgt. 56.5
Primary trend of the pair has
been bearish, as Lower tops and
lower bottoms are well intact on
the daily and weekly chart.
Though the pair has exited
oversold zone on the short term
charts, there is no sign of bullish
price reversal seen.
Dominance of bears seems to be
much higher on bulls for the pair.
Long term support for the pair is
seen somewhere around 56.50
Resistance for the pair is seen at
Considering the setup, we advise
going short on JPYINR Jan Fut.
below 58, for the target of 56.50
keeping SL at 58.60.



EURUSD: Daily Chart

DXY: Daily Chart


USDJPY: Daily Chart

GBPUSD: Daily Chart



Data Interpretation:
The highest Open interest is seen on 69 call strike with open interest of 4.80 lakh contracts indicating call writing by
hedgers. While on down side we are seeing put writing at 67.50 strike with open interest of 2.46 lakh contract.
The overall distribution indicating the pair would consolidate in the range of 67.50 to 69.00.
The put call ratio is placed around 0.62 indicating bullishness has reached an extreme level, many traders anticipate a
downtrend at this level.
The pair likely to see short term weakness with down side support around 67.50 while continues to resist around 69.



Data Interpretation:

USDINR January future settles flat for the week ended on 30th Dec. The pair closed at 68.10 from previous weeks 68.07.
The January future started on weak note as pair witness mild profit booking ahead of year end. The aggregate open
interest at the start of December was at 19.06 lakh contracts while the new month started with 17.67 lakh contracts. In
the week gone by, the near month open interest rose from 8.23 lakh contracts to 15.23 lakh contracts.
The rise in open interest with flat move in price suggesting consolidation at higher level. In near term pair could trade in
the range of 68.40 to 67.40 in coming weeks.


Indian Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Billions)
Wkly Chg. 23-Dec 16-Dec 9-Dec 2-Dec 25-Nov 18-Nov
Total Reserves -0.94 359.67 360.61 362.99 363.87 365.30 365.50
Foreign Currency Assets -0.93 335.97 336.9 339.26 340.13 341.08 341.27
Gold 0.00 19.98 19.98 19.98 19.98 20.46 20.46
Special Drawing Rights 0.00 1.43 1.43 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
Position in IMF -0.01 2.29 2.3 2.3 2.31 2.31 2.32


Positive Net Foreign Equity Invt.

Negative Net Foreign Equity Invt.
Positive Net Foreign Debt Invt.
Negative Net Foreign Debt Invt.


(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
DOLLAR INDEX SPOT 102.17 102.59 101.91 102.21 (0.46) (0.85) 0.70 7.07
Euro Spot 1.049 1.0653 1.0485 1.0517 0.26 0.58 (0.68) (6.39)
British Pound Spot 1.226 1.2388 1.2247 1.234 0.64 0.47 (1.33) (4.87)
Japanese Yen Spot 116.54 117.2 116.05 116.96 (0.36) 0.32 (2.14) (13.35)
Indian Rupee Spot 67.955 68.0013 67.8525 67.9238 0.26 (0.15) 0.68 (1.93)
Brazilian Real Spot 3.2545 3.2552 3.2543 3.2552 (0.04) 0.46 4.01 0.22
Australian Dollar Spot 0.7219 0.7246 0.7199 0.7208 (0.15) 0.45 (2.40) (5.95)
South Korean Won Spot 1206.65 1207.39 1198.6 1205.83 0.16 (0.25) (3.06) (8.68)
S. African Rand Spot 13.6135 13.8322 13.5565 13.7401 (0.91) 1.88 2.58 (0.13)
Canadian Dollar Spot 1.3502 1.3508 1.3401 1.3441 0.45 0.68 (0.03) (2.34)
Swiss Franc Spot 1.023 1.0233 1.0064 1.019 0.39 0.74 (0.17) (4.67)

(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
GOLD 1158.05 1163.34 1147.36 1147.5 (0.92) 1.25 (2.19) (12.80)
SILVER 16.1602 16.2775 15.8475 15.9278 (1.44) 1.11 (3.53) (16.93)
CRUDE OIL 53.87 54.09 53.41 53.72 (0.09) 1.45 6.71 7.59

(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
Nifty 50 8119.7 8197.0 8114.8 8185.8 1.01 2.51 1.22 (4.94)
S&P BSE SENSEX INDEX 26441.5 26678.6 26406.5 26626.5 0.99 2.25 1.51 (4.45)
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 19833.2 19852.6 19718.7 19762.6 (0.29) (0.78) 3.09 7.94
S&P 500 INDEX 2251.6 2253.6 2233.6 2238.8 (0.46) (0.98) 2.14 3.25
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 5440.2 5441.9 5371.9 5383.1 (0.90) (1.18) 2.43 1.34
FTSE 100 INDEX 7120.3 7142.8 7087.5 7142.8 0.32 1.44 6.12 3.53
CAC 40 INDEX 4836.8 4864.3 4825.1 4862.3 0.49 0.57 7.36 9.31
DAX INDEX 11443.3 11481.7 11405.8 11481.1 0.26 0.22 9.20 9.23
NIKKEI 225 18997.7 19176.8 18991.6 19114.4 (0.16) (1.61) 3.74 16.20
HANG SENG INDEX 21818.9 22069.6 21818.9 22000.6 0.96 0.87 (2.50) (5.57)
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE 3097.3 3108.8 3090.0 3103.6 0.24 (0.21) (4.32) 3.29


Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
01/01/2017 06:30 CH Manufacturing PMI Dec 51.5 51.7
01/01/2017 06:30 CH Non-manufacturing PMI Dec -- 54.7
01/02/2017 10:30 IN Nikkei India PMI Mfg Dec -- 52.3
01/02/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec F 54.9 54.9
01/02/2017 IN Eight Infrastructure Industries Nov -- 6.60%
01/03/2017 07:15 CH Caixin China PMI Mfg Dec 50.9 50.9
01/03/2017 15:00 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Dec 53.3 53.4
01/03/2017 20:15 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Dec F 54.2 54.2
01/03/2017 20:30 US ISM Manufacturing Dec 53.7 53.2
01/03/2017 20:30 US Construction Spending MoM Nov 0.50% 0.50%
01/04/2017 06:00 JN Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Dec F -- 51.9
01/04/2017 10:30 IN Nikkei India PMI Services Dec -- 46.7
01/04/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Dec F 53.1 53.1
01/04/2017 15:00 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Dec 52.6 52.8
01/04/2017 15:30 EC CPI Core YoY Dec A 0.80% 0.80%
01/04/2017 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 30-Dec -- 2.50%
01/05/2017 00:30 US FOMC Meeting Minutes 14-Dec -- --
01/05/2017 06:00 JN Nikkei Japan PMI Services Dec -- 51.8
01/05/2017 07:15 CH Caixin China PMI Services Dec -- 53.1
01/05/2017 15:00 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Dec 54.7 55.2
01/05/2017 15:30 EC PPI YoY Nov -0.10% -0.40%
01/05/2017 18:45 US ADP Employment Change Dec 175k 216k
01/05/2017 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 31-Dec 260k 265k
01/05/2017 19:00 US Continuing Claims 24-Dec 2051k 2102k
01/05/2017 20:15 US Markit US Services PMI Dec F 53.4 53.4
01/05/2017 20:30 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Dec 56.7 57.2
01/06/2017 15:30 EC Consumer Confidence Dec F -5.3 -5.1
01/06/2017 15:30 EC Retail Sales YoY Nov 1.90% 2.40%
01/06/2017 17:30 IN GDP Annual Estimate YoY 1Q A -- 7.60%
01/06/2017 19:00 US Trade Balance Nov -$42.8b -$42.6b
01/06/2017 19:00 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Dec 178k 178k
01/06/2017 19:00 US Unemployment Rate Dec 4.70% 4.60%
01/06/2017 20:30 US Factory Orders Nov -2.30% 2.70%
01/06/2017 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders Nov F -4.60% -4.60%



How Importers And Exporters Could Use A Forex Hedge To Minimise Losses

An important tool in the global financial markets, hedging is used in every asset class to mitigate losses. This can be
utilised by anyone, whether it is an individual or corporate, to overcome the negative impact of price volatility.

For the corporate in which the business activity is dependent on import and export of commodities, there is an automatic
exposure to foreign exchange and, hence, the need for hedging is higher. In the current context, since the world markets
are interlinked, they eventually affect and impact the movement of currencies.

Hedging, in any asset class, is ultimately a strategy to decrease or transfer risk in order to protect one's portfolio or
business from uncertainty in prices. In case of hedging in the foreign exchange market, a participant who is entering a
trade with the intention of protecting the existing position from an unexpected currency move, is said to have created a
forex hedge.

With the help of a forex hedge, a participant who is long in a foreign currency pair, can protect himself from the downside
risk. On the other hand, a hedger who is short on a foreign currency pair will protect his existing position from the upside

The strategy to create a hedge would depend on the following parameters: (a) risk component (b) risk tolerance and (c) to
plan and execute the strategy.

The impact of the movement in the USD-INR currencies affects both importers and exporters. In other words, an importer
will benefit when the rupee appreciates, while the exporter will gain when the rupee depreciates against the US dollar. The
cost of import reduces when the rupee gains strength, thus benefiting an importer, and at the same time creating a loss for
the exporter, since a stronger rupee will reduce the export remittances when converted to Indian rupees.

In order to reduce the risks associated with these uncertain movements in the financial markets, both importers and
exporters can utilize the derivatives platform of currency futures. By creating an equal and opposite position in the
derivatives market, a hedge can be created.



How Hedging Works For An Importer

Suppose an oil importer wants to purchase oil worth $1,00,000 and places his order on 11 March 2016, with the delivery
date being three months away. At the time of placing the contract in the spot market, one US dollar is worth, say, Rs
66.50. However, suppose the Indian rupee depreciates to Rs 69 per dollar when the payment is due in June 2016, the
value of the payment for the importer goes up to Rs 69,00,000 rather than Rs 66,50,000.

In this case, if the importer hedges the currency risk, the losses can be reduced. Here's how the hedging strategy for the
importer would work:

Buy 100 lots of USD June 2016 contracts on 11th March 2016, assuming that June 2016 contract is trading at 67 on 11th
March 2016.
Then in June 2016, He square off 100 lots USD at 69. Profit of Rs. 200000, i.e. 1000 lot size* (69-67) *100.
Then importer makes the payment of oil purchase at 69 per dollar

Had the importer not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 2,50,000 (Rs 69,00,000 - Rs 66,50,000).
However, by creating a hedge position on the futures platform, his losses were reduced to Rs 50,000 due to profits in
currency hedge.

How An Exporter Can Use Hedging

A Jeweller, who is exporting gold jewellery worth US$50,000 in March 2016, wants protection against a possible
appreciation in the Indian rupee in June 2016 (spot Rs 66.50), when he receives his payment. When he is required to make
the payment in June 2016, suppose the rupee appreciates to 64. If, in this situation, he wants to lock in the exchange rate
for the above transaction, his strategy would be as follows

In March 2016, Sell 50 lots of June 2016 contract USD with a lot size of 1000,spot market @66.50. Assume that initially
the Indian rupee depreciated, but later appreciated to 64 per USD as foreseen by the exporter at end of June 2016.

Had the exporter not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 75,000, i.e. (50*1000*(66.50-64)), but by
creating a hedge he has made a profit of Rs 75,000 in the futures, offsetting his business loss. Hence, exposure
management is essential, given the premise of a volatile foreign exchange market. Hedging in the currency markets,
therefore, holds prime importance.


Technical Research Analyst(Equity and Currency): Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Research Analyst(Currency): Dilip Parmar (dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Above HDFC Bank, Astral Tower, Nr. Mithakadi 6 Road, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat.
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