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STATISTICS
BFC 34303
Chapter 2 :
PROBABILITY
The Definition of Basic Terms in
Probability
Basic
Outcomes
Sample Space S = { H ,T }
H ~ head , T ~ tail
(iv) Event ~ is a subset of basic
outcomes from the sample space.
Example
Rolling a die
the basic outcomes are the
numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. 2
Thus S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ,6 } 4 1 3
5
6
If A = { 1, 3, 5 }
Then A is an event of getting odd numbers
Example
List a sample space when two dice are
tossed or a die is tossed twice .
n(A) = 5
A B
Example
Rolling a die
Let A : getting even numbers
B : getting odd numbers
A B
A={2,4,6} 2 4 1 3
B={1,3,5} 6 5
Therefore, AB=
Exhaustive Events
n( A1 A2 A3 ... An ) n(S )
A1 A2 A3 A4
A5
A6 A7 A8
Example
Let S={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}.
If A={1,2,3,4,5,6} and
B ={5,6,7,8,9,10},
then n (A B) =n (S).
Therefore,
A & B are exhaustive events.
Example
Let S={1,2,3,4,5,6}.
If A={2,4,6} and
B={1,3},
then n (A B) n (S).
Therefore,
A and B are not exhaustive
events.
The Probability Of An Event
Definition
The probability of an event A occurring is
denoted by P(A) ,where
number of possibleoutcomes in A
P(A) =
number of all possible outcomes in S
=
n(A)
n(S)
P(A) satisfies the following conditions
0 P(A) 1
P(A) 1 P(A)
H
T
T
(a) S={HH,HT,TH,TT} n(S) = 4
Let A be the event of getting 2 heads
A = {HH}
1
Thus P(A) = 4
Example
There are 100 FKAAS first year students , of
whom 20 are studying mathematics, 15 are
studying statistics and 8 are studying both
mathematics and statistics. We can illustrate
this in a Venn diagram.
There are 100 FKAAS first year students , of whom
20 are studying mathematics, 15 are studying
statistics and 8 are studying both mathematics and
statistics. We can illustrate this in a Venn diagram.
TRY THIS
In a junior school class of 28 pupils, 7 are in
both a sports team and the school band. There
are 16 pupils involved in sports teams and 10 in
the school band. Find the probability that a pupil
chosen at random.
(a) is only in the school band
(b) is in either a sports team or the school band
(c) is in neither a sports team nor the school
band
DEFINITION
Probability of two events A or B occurring
can be calculated using additional probability
rules such as below,
a ) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A B )
6 4 2 2
12 12 12 3
b) P ( A B ') P ( A) P ( A B )
6 2
12 12
1
3
c ) P ( A B )' 1 P ( A B )
2
1
3
1
3
Example
Records showed that 80% of all drivers who are
summoned for various traffic offences are man
drivers. 17% are drivers below 30 years old, with
13% are man drivers who are below 30 years. If a
driver who is summoned is randomly selected, what
is the probability that the driver is a man or below 30
years old or both?
SOLUTION :
Let,
L = event to get a man driver
T = event to get a driver aged below 30 years
old
According to the information given,
P(L) = 0.80, P(T) = 0.17 and P(L T) = 0.13
We want to find P(L T).
Let
P = the worker is a production operator
270
4
135
d)P(S working less than 40hrs)
4
270
2
135
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
P( A B) 0
Definition 1
If A and B are mutually exclusive
events , then
P( A B) P( A) P( B)
since P( A B)=0
On a Venn diagram
A B s
The concept of mutually exclusive
events can be extended to more than
two events.
Definition 2
P( X1 X 2 .... X n ) P( X1 ) P( X 2 )..... P( X n ).
Example
C and D are two events where P(C) = 0.1,
P(D)= 0.2 and P(C D) = 0.3.
(a) Determine whether C and D are two
mutually exclusive events.
(b) Find P(C ) and P(C D )
' ' '
Solution
S
C D
b) P( E F) P( (A D) ( B C))
=0
since A, B, C and D are mutually
exclusive events
Example
A bag contains 4 red marbles, 2 white marbles
and 8 black marbles. What is the probability
that a marble picked from the bag at random
is either red or white ?
Solution :
Let R : event that red marble is picked
W :event that white marble is
picked
P( R U W ) = P(R) + P(W)
4 2
14 14
6
14
3
7
Example
The result of the final exam in a FKAAS are as
follows:
600 students passed the Hydraulic paper.
300 students passed the Geotechnical paper.
175 students passed both papers
50 students failed both papers.
From the information above, calculate :
(a)
(b) how
(c) many of the
the probability ofcollege students
students chosentook
whothe
did Geotechnical
not pass
passed both in and
Geotechnical.
papers.
Hydraulic paper?
From the information above, calculate :
n(A M) 175
P(A M)
n(S) 775
7
31
(c) P( G ) = 1 - P(G)
300
1
775
475
775
19
31
Conditional Events
Conditional Probability
P( A B )
P( A|B ) P(B) 0
P(B)
c) P(B|A)
Solution:
W W' Total
H 10 4 14
H' 20 66 86
Total 30 70 100
P(W H)
(a) P(W | H) =
P(H)
10
2
= 100 =
14 7
100
P(H ' W)
(b) P(H ' | W) =
P(W)
20
2
= 100 =
30 3
100
Example
Harry travels to work by either route A or route B.
The probability that he chooses route A is 1 .
4
The probability that he is late for work if he chooses
2
route A is and the probability that he is late for work
3
1
if he chooses route B is .
3
(a) What is the probability that he is late for work
on a particular day ?
(b) Given that he is not late for work, what is the
probability that he chooses route B ?
Solution:
2 L
3
1
4 A 1 L
3 1
3 L
3 B
4 2
L
3
64
1 2 3 1
(a) P(L)
4 3 4 3
5
12
P(B L')
(b) P( B|L' )
P(L')
3 2
x
4 3 6
7 7
12
The probability rule for conditional events,
P( A B)
P( A | B)
P( B)
Then, we have
P( A B) P( B) P( A | B)
66
Definition
If A and B are independent events, it means
that the outcome of one event does not affect
the outcome of the other, then
P ( A | B ) P ( A) and P ( B | A) P ( B )
Thus,
P ( A B ) P ( A | B ) P ( B ) P ( A) P ( B )
P ( A B ') P ( A) P ( B ')
P ( A ' B ) P ( A ') P ( B )
P ( A ' B ') P ( A ') P ( B ')
Example
Suppose two events A and B are independent.
Given P(A) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.25.
Find
a)P( A B) b) P ( A B )
69
Solution: A and B are
independent
a ) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B )
(0.4)(0.25)
0.1 A and B are
independent
b ) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A B )
P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A) P ( B )
0.5
C A' C
73
Example
A mathematics puzzle is given to three
students Aziz, Bong and Samy. From the
past experience, known that the probabilities
Aziz, Bong and Samy will get the correct
solutions are 0.65, 0.6 and 0.55 respectively.
If three of them attempt to solve the puzzle
without consulting each other, find the
probability that:
a) the puzzle will be solved correctly by all of
them.
b) only one of them will get the correct solution.
74
Solution:
75
a)The event that the puzzle will be solved correctly
by all of them is the event A B C
P ( A B C ) P ( A) P ( B ) P (C )
(0.65)(0.60)(0.55)
0.21
P A ' P B ' P C
(0.65)(0.4)(0.45) (0.35)(0.6)(0.45)
(0.35)(0.40)(0.55)
0.29
77
Example
The probability that Roy is late for college on any
day is 0.15 and is independent of whether he was
late on the previous day. Find the probability that
he
78
Solution:
0.15 LATE
0.15 LATE
0.85 ON TIME
0.85 ON TIME
Monday Tuesday 79
a) P( late on Monday and Tuesday )
= (0.15)(0.15)
= 0.0225
80
TRY THIS
There are 60 students in a certain college, 27 of
them are taking Mathematics, 20 are taking
Biology and 22 are taking neither Mathematics
nor Biology.
a)Find the probability that a randomly selected
student takes
(i) both Mathematics and Biology.
(ii) Mathematics only.
b) A student is selected at random.
Determine whether the event taking
Mathematics is statistically independent
of the event taking Biology .
81
Solution:
M
20-x B
27-x x
22
a) 27 - x + x + 20 - x + 22 = 60
x=9
(i) 9 3
P( B M )
60 20
(ii) 18 3
P ( M B ')
60 10
83
b) P( M B)
3
20
27 9 20 1
P( M ) , P ( B)
60 20 60 3
9 1 3
P ( M ) P ( B ) 20 3
20
P( M B) P( M ) P( B)
Hence, the two events are independent. 84
Let A be an event of getting the sum
of two numbers is 6
Thus A = { (1,5) , ( 2,4) , (3,3) , (4,2) , (5,1) }
n(A) = 5
87
TOTAL PROBABILITY OF EVENT B = P(B)
P( B | A ) B
A B
P( A)
P( B | A )
B
P( A) A
B
P( B ) = P(A) x P( B | A ) + P(A) x P( B | A ) 88
THE TOTAL PROBABILITY THEOREM
P( B ) = P(A1) x P( B | A1 ) + P(A2) x P( B | A2 )
+ P(A3) x P( B | A3 ) +..+ P(An) x P( B | An )
89
P (A|B) : the probability of A given B
P
(AB
)
P
(A|B
)
P(B
)
P
(
A
|B
)
P(
B
)P(
AB)
S
i
n
c
eP
A
B
P
(
BA
)
Substitute (2) into (1) , we get :
BAYES
THEOREM
P(
B|
A
)P(
A)
P
(
A|B
)
P(B) 91
BAYES THEOREM
P(
B|
A )
P(
A)
P
(
A|
i
B
) i i
P(B)
where A1 , A2 , .. , An are n mutually
exclusive and exhaustive events so that
A1 A2 . An = S ,
the possibility space, and B is an arbitrary
event of S ( i = 1,2,3,..,n ) .
P(B) is the total probability of event B.
Bayes Theorem is useful when we have
92
to reverse the conditions in a problem.
Example
There are 12 red balls and 8 green balls in a
bucket. Two balls are taken out in sequence
without replacement. By using a tree
diagram , find the probability that
(a) the first ball is red
(b) the second one is red if the first is red
(c) the second one is red if the first is green
(d) the second one is red
(e) the first one is red if the second is red
93
Solution: R ~ red ball
11 R2 G ~ green ball
19
12 R1
8 G2
20
19 12
19 R2
8 G1
20 7
G2
19
11
(b) P( R2 | R1 )
19
Or using the formula of
conditional probability
12 11
P
(R R ) 20 19
P( R2 | R1 ) 1 2
P(R1) 12
11 20
95
19
(c) P( R2 | G1 ) Direct from the
tree diagram
96
P
(R| R
2 1)P
(R1)
(e) P(R1 | R2 ) =
P
(R2)
11 12
19 20
Reverse
condition 3
use Bayes 5
Theorem
11
19
97
Example
Harry travels to work by route A or route B.
1
The probability that he chooses route A is .
4
The probability that he is late for work if he goes to
2
work by route A is and the corresponding
3
1
probability if he goes to work by route B is .
3
(a) What is the probability that he is late for work
on Monday ?
(b) Given that he is late for work, what is the
probability that he went to work by route B ?
98
Solution:
B
P(A|B)
0.55 A 0.3
P(B|A)P(A)
0.2 B
0.3 S P(B)
0.8 B
0.15 M 0.1
B
0.9 B 102
BAYES
THEOREM
P(
B|
A
)P(
A)
P
(
A|B
)
P(B)
0
.
70.
5
5
(
0
.5
5
0
.
7
)(
0.
3
0.
2
)(
0.
1
50
.
1
)
0.
7 0.
55
0.
837
0.
46 103
Example
According to a firms internal survey, of those
employees living more than 2 miles from work , 90%
travel to work by car. Of the remaining employees,
only 50% travel to work by car. It is known that 75%
of employees live more than 2 miles from work.
Find
(i) the overall proportion of employees who travel to work by
car.
(ii) the probability that an employee who travels to work by car
lives more than 2 miles from work.
104
Solution:
Define the events C , B1 , B2 as follows :
C : Travels to work by car
B1 : Lives more than 2 miles from work
B2 : Lives not more than 2 miles from work
P(
C)
0.90 .75
0.8
0.
843
75
107