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Business Decision Making

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Business Decision Making

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Introduction.....................................................................................................3

Task 1...............................................................................................................4

AC 1.1 Primary and Secondary Data Collection Plan for Heinz.....................4

AC 1.2 Heinzs Survey Methodology and Sampling Frame for the Research.5

AC 1.3 Questionnaire Designing for Heinz....................................................7

Task 2...............................................................................................................9

AC 2.1 Summarizing Collected Data Using Representative Value for

Decision Making............................................................................................9

AC 2.2 Analysis and Conclusions of the Results..........................................11

AC 2.3 Using Measures of Dispersion to Analyze Data to Report Heinz......12

AC 2.4 Application of Quartiles, Percentiles and Co-efficient of Correlation in

the Analysis................................................................................................15

Task 3.............................................................................................................15

AC 3.1 Graphs from Derived Information....................................................15

AC 3.2 Trend Lines for Heinz.......................................................................16

AC 3.4 A Formal Business Report for Presenting to Heinz...........................17

Task 4.............................................................................................................17

AC 4.1 Application of Information Processing Tools for the Research..........17

AC 4.2 Project Plan Designed by Using Gantt Chart and Critical Path

Analysis Method for Implementation..........................................................18

AC 4.3 Decision Making of Strategies Using Financial Tools........................19

Conclusion.....................................................................................................20

References.....................................................................................................23

Page 2 of 23

Introduction

Business decision making are vital for any organization particularly when it comes about to

project management. Managers strive to plan, imply and control every necessary thing for the

successful business decision making (Haines, 2008). It is the project managers and leaders who

are responsible for the decision making. However, the business decision making contexts are the

focal subject of this report. The report will be discussing about the business decision making for

Heinz. Heinz established in 1869 by introducing its first product in Pennsylvania. The business

got bigger and bigger every year and expanded whole USA and every continent of the world.

According to Heinz (2015), this global company has business operation in about 200 countries

through 50 affiliates as it offers 5000 products over the world. Currently it is serving eight

product categories including food, health care, infant feeding and some other services.

The company declared to operate a project named Project Millennia in 1997 which is a global

restructuring project. The project focuses on the organizations capability to adapt to change and

be flexible enough to act in the changed situations so that maximum profits can be acquired

(Heinz, 2015). The core reason behind running this project for so long is the continuous and

rapid change in the consumer behavior patterns all over the world.

The aim of this project is to provide an understanding about the decision making process and the

factors playing anchoring role behind the process. One of such factors is the understanding on

how to use a variety of sources for the collection of data and for that, a plan for collecting both

primary and secondary data is presented where required survey methodology and sampling frame

for ease of data collection as well as the developed questionnaire based on the Heinzs needs for

the project. The then objective this report serves is the discussion of a range of techniques to

analyze data effectively for business purposes. Commonly used statistical techniques such as

measures of dispersion and others are implemented for summarizing, drawing conclusions and

information processing activities. Another objective of this report writing is increasing the ability

to information processing in proper methods for decision making and at the last portion the

proper planning of the project operation and financial feasibilities are discussed using the critical

path analysis method. Heinz business perspectives are implanted in those objectives for the ease

of discussion.

Page 3 of 23

Task 1

AC 1.1 Primary and Secondary Data Collection Plan for Heinz

Heinz as well as every other company collects data for business research and decision making.

To effectively manage the research and decision making the first and foremost thing to acquire is

ample information (Cagan, 2008). Due to the importance of the data in the process, certain and

efficient plan for collecting data is necessary. The required data collection can be divided into

two parts. They are:

Primary data collection: Collection of information which is not available before from

any sources and designed to fulfill only the researchers necessity.

Secondary data collection: Collection from available sources which are not meant for

the secondary researchers use.

Some useful plans for collecting the necessary data for Heinz for the Project Millennia are

presented here:

Primary data collection: Heinz for the analysis of the project factors can use the following

sources to collect primary data.

collection is the survey questionnaire. The questionnaire provides researcher with the

facility of designing questions according to own need. The questions are based on the

project essentials and evaluations.

Interview meetings with project leaders and managers: The responsible project

manager can arrange regular interviews with other project managers and leaders or with

management to get intended information. In this case the questions to be asked and topics

to be discussed are needed to plan before by the researcher.

Observation of interactions: Customer and employee interactions in the web based

networks can also be a good source of primary data for Heinz as it possesses a strong and

advanced internet application of technologies.

Secondary data collection: Heinz for the collection of secondary data about the opportunities

and threats surrounding the business and data of the external environment can take help from

both internal and external sources. A chart is provided for the ease of discussion.

Page 4 of 23

Internal External

sources sources

statements data services

Balance Corporate

sheets filings

Internal sources: Every organization tracks and records the information of activities (Turban,

2002). The accounts of profit and loss statement, financial statement and balance sheets are good

sources for the financial feasibility of the project. The tracking of daily sales before and after the

change is also dependable sources.

External sources: Hence Heinz is a popular worldwide brand enough case studies and media

information are available. College and university reports can also be helpful for the necessary

information (Turban, 2002). However, the options for secondary data are many for the

researcher; the selection of sources depends on the projects nature and personal choices of the

researcher.

the Research

Survey methodology: A useful tool for collecting the necessary primary data is to survey

(Peppers and Rogers, 2008). Heinz develops and operates the survey through a certain

methodology which includes the population features, sample, sampling technique or frame,

sample size and sampling evaluation.

Page 5 of 23

Population: Population is the compilation of all people under the items or features of the

intended data (Peppers and Rogers, 2008). For the Project Millennia the population

would be the whole number of customers in the market, decision makers and employees.

Sample: Sample is the representative of the population (Selden, 1998). Heinz cannot

conduct survey on every member of the population instead surveyor selects affordable

number of members to survey on under the same features of population. For example, the

sample for Heinzs Project Millennia is customers in a single working day or employees

in a particular branch.

Sampling frame: The methods used to identify, select and use samples from the

population is the sampling framework (Selden, 1998). It is more of a guideline to the

survey defining what to do, when to do and how to do. The sampling framework will be

presented in a format later in the report.

Sample size: Sample size should be varied according to the project nature. As the project

is huge change bringer to the organization, the sample must be large in size as the more

number it is the more exact data is. Project manager of Heinz must not deal with only size

but the features, demographics and regional differences as well.

Sampling framework: A technique must be developed in order to collecting primary data for the

survey research. However, a framework is followed by the Heinz in Project Millennia and others

as well. The sampling framework of this organization is alike:

with Heinz so that directed information is

available

Sources of samples Various office branches of Heinz, distribution

channel members, project related employees

and managers and random customers

Sampling variations Sources from different regions so that varied

information can be available

Sample analysis method Central tendency (Mean, Median and Mode),

Interquartile ranges and co-efficient of

correlation

Further use of the sampling For the post-evaluation and related projects

Page 6 of 23

AC 1.3 Questionnaire Designing for Heinz

Survey consists of questions relating to the subject matter. The survey was conducted on 365

members of population as samples. These members are customers, employees and other

stakeholders. The questionnaire of the survey for this project of adapting change and acting in

the changed situations can be such as:

Survey questionnaire

A= Agree

N= Neutral

D= Disagree

a) Customer b) Employee

b) Stakeholder d) Other stakeholder

2. Are you likely to support the project?

SA A N D SD

Comments:

SA A N D SD

Comments:

4. Should Heinz

SA A N D SD

Comments:

Page 7 of 23

5. Should employee involvement be introduced for the Project Millennia?

SA A N D SD

Comments:

SA A N D SD

Comments:

SA A N D SD

Comments:

SA A N D SD

Comments:

SA A N D SD

Comments:

SA A N D SD

Comments:

SA A N D SD

Comments:

Page 8 of 23

Task 2

for Decision Making

The survey conducted on 365 employees, customers and other bodies related to the Heinz in the

project needs to process the data before analysing. Here a summarized presentation of the data

from survey using representative values like mean, median and mode for the sake of decision

making is provided.

List of classified data into classes and number of participants in the particular class:

than 20 100

frequencie 6 17 68 53 79 53 63 26

s

m. p 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 90

(X)

f 6 17 68 53 79 53 63 26

X 50 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 5

d=

8

fd -24 -51 -136 -53 79 53 63 130

cf 6 23 91 144 223 276 339 365

N= 365 d =1 fd=61

The mean, median and mode determined from the table using formulas are given below:

Page 9 of 23

fd

A+ i

Mean = N = 50+ 0.1671= 50.1671

N

Median = size of 2 = 365/2 = 183rd observation

N

p.c.f

Median= 2

L+ i = 50+ 1.9=51.9

f

fd 2 fd 2

Standard deviation= N

( )

N = 10.20.03 = 3.2

d = the difference between each classs middle point and average of total middle points divided

by number of frequency classes;

The mean or average of the frequency distribution is 50.17 and the median, the middle value is

51.9 determined by detecting the 183rd observation. The mode of the processes distribution is

55.4. The standard deviation calculated from over rooted squared average to averaged square

which is 3.2. That means very low dispersion or differences among the actual and expected

outcomes.

The resulted information from the mean, median and mode are useful for the analysis of the

project. A useful and correct conclusion for decision making can be developed by using the

Page 10 of 23

cumulative frequency table (Joachim, 2012). Cumulative frequency is the sequenced

accumulated value of the number of distribution.

The cumulative frequency is the sequent addition of the frequencies from each table which must

be equal to the total number of the frequencies (Joachim, 2012). The frequency distribution curve

can be converted into the cumulative frequency distribution curve to analysis cumulative

information. But the accumulation of the frequencies is used to compare between projects under

same features. Here is a cumulative frequency curve for the Project Millennia.

Cumulative Frequency

340 365

287

193

114

6 23 61

Page 11 of 23

AC 2.3 Using Measures of Dispersion to Analyze Data to Report

Heinz

The available data is analyzed to check the probability of going advanced with the Project

Millennia through measures of dispersion (Murty, 2010). The measures of dispersion are the

statistical method using to determine the central tendency and the most used properties of the

distribution. The measures of dispersion which used to analyze data are:

Variance

Standard deviation

Interquartile range

However, the Interquartile range is used for this projects data evaluation.

Processed table:

Page 12 of 23

Here from each Interquartile range one is calculated. For determining quartiles, deciles or

percentiles the range of frequency tables last value to first value needs to be calculated. The first

Page 13 of 23

quartile is 51.5 which determine the value of first and second quartile. The first percentile is

33.55. The co-efficient of correlation of the two variables is 0.92 which means a strong positive

relationship exists.

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Less than 20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-100

The graph shows the relation of frequency and variation of each item. The blue stand refers the

frequency and the red ones are referring to the variation of each item. Thus, without going

through the mathematical calculations users with little related knowledge can understand the

result by only looking at it.

Correlation in the Analysis

Quartile: Quartile helps to analyze the frequency distribution by dividing the observations into

four equal parts, first, second, third and fourth quartile (Walter, 2010). The lower quartile

represents the first and second quarter of the distribution and the upper quartile for the third and

fourth quarter of the distribution and the middle quartile are equal to the median.

Percentile: Unlike quartile percentile divides the observations into ten equal portions each called

as percentile.

Page 14 of 23

Co-efficient of correlation: The co-efficient of correlation determines if there is any relation

between the two variables and the degree of that relationship (Power, 2009). The correlation co-

efficient is addressed in percentage.

For the intended research of Heinz, theses three measurements can be used to analyze and draw

conclusions.

Task 3

The available data from the research so far can help to prepare a graph. The graph can be

prepared by spreadsheet lines, pie charts, bar charts or histograms. Here the spreadsheet lines are

used to draw a graph of summarized data.

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

1 2 3 4 5

The trend lines using the spreadsheet graphs are presented here. The aim to show the trend line

graph is to help project managers in forecasting the projects feasibility for Heinz. Here is the

graph:

Page 15 of 23

AC 3.4 A Formal Business Report for Presenting to Heinz

Project Title: Project Millennia

Abstract: This project research is standing on the survey to participants including customers,

employees and other relating to the organization. The aim of the project is to study the statistical

methods and skills to analyze the feasibility factors of this project. Evaluations and conclusions

are described in this report for the ease of application.

Methodology: The methods are based on the application of Statistical methods and Skills.

Survey techniques are used to collect data. The evaluation is developed on the basis of central

tendency, measures of dispersion and co-efficient of correlation.

Analysis: Quantitative analyzes are carefully implied for analysis which outcomes favorable

results. The results were close to the central mean value. They were some outliers both at the top

and the bottom, which show that some students used different study techniques.

Page 16 of 23

Conclusion: The project deals with the statistical data collection and quantitative analysis to

determine the success of project activities for Heinz. It is hope that the evaluation is to the help

for the users in the organization.

Task 4

Research

The successful research completion requires the information processing and various common

tools are used to do so. Information tools can be tangible and intangible equipment used to

arrange, classify, prepare and present the collected data (Hagg, Cummings and Dawkins, 1998).

The tangible equipment includes computers, transmitters and various interfaces and database,

network servers, internet and interfaces are among the intangible equipments.

The information processing tools are combination of those which helps in Heinzs budget

planning, investment appraisals and many others. For this unique change in the organization of

Project Millennia the information processing should be carefully taken care of. For the vast

data Heinz should use computerized techniques for the processing. The processing activities can

be patronized by the using of intranet within organization and website interfaces so that not only

processing but also feedbacks are available. The computerized system provides the storage and

instant data recovery facilities. Moreover, available company resources for high techs are a good

reason to select for information processing for Heinzs research.

Path Analysis Method for Implementation

After having necessary data collected, carefully processed and available, it is time to plan the

project. Project managers commonly use various techniques to plan and design the project. But

the Critical Path Analysis is the suitable for large scale projects which Project Millennia is.

CPA includes identified the tasks and serially arranged them in Gantt chart. First part is to

identify the task necessary for the completion of the project (Swift and Piff, 2005). However, an

example tasks set is provided for the discussion.

Tasks A B C D E F G H

Predecessor - - A A D, B E, C C F, G

Page 17 of 23

s

Duration 3 5 2 3 3 5 1 2

Gantt chart: The Gantt Chart is the map of flow of activities. It shows which task is needed to

do before which tasks. The chart shows the alternative paths for completing the project till first to

the finish.

Here in the chart of example of critical paths, task A and task B are first task to begin with.

Project manager can initiate these tasks together. Task C and D are the next tasks where task A

and B are the predecessors. Predecessors are the tasks needed to do before commencing the next

job. Task B is the predecessor of task E as well. On the other hand, task F can be started after

task E and C. Task C is the predecessor of task G and from then project manager can advance to

task H from task G and task F to task H for the completion.

The chart is also useful for determining the time durations of each task and required time for

completion the whole project. The expected time and actual time are determined to evaluate the

project success.

The information processing outcomes are refined through the financial feasibility tools (Swift

and Piff, 2005). Financial statement assessments are used for the better planning and

implementation of Heinzs project strategy. Financial statements include the determination of net

present value (NPV), average rate of returns (ARR), Payback period and cash flow statements

Page 18 of 23

and many others. However, a table of cash flow for the Project Millennia on the basis of yearly

report is presented here:

Given table:

Years 0 1 2 3 4

Cash flow () 78000 17000 27000 33000 28000

Net Present Value: It is the range of difference from the market value of an investment and the

costs putting on it. Cash flow information is must for determining the NPV which consists of

time period, rate of returns, discount rate and the amount of initial investment. 10% rate of

returns and 5% discount rate is assumed in this case.

n

1(1+i )

NPV =R + Initial Investment

i

= 28000

Average Rate of Return: The ARR is the average of income rates for each time period. It is

determined by the average net income divided by the average book value or purchase value of

the investment in a given time period. Here 10.27% is the ARR for the given cash flow

statement.

ARR =

Average book value

= 10.27%

Payback period: It is the time to recover the initial costs of investment. The required time or

payback time is necessary to know because it tells how much time it will take to get back the

Page 19 of 23

money put on it. If the rates are not fluctuated, then the calculated payback period does not make

mistake in practical. Here the payback period is 7 years that means the investment made for the

project will be returned after 7 years with 10% rate of returns and 5% discount rate.

Conclusion

The aim of this project is to provide an understanding about the decision making process and the

factors playing anchoring role behind the process. One of such factors is the understanding on

how to use a variety of sources for the collection of data and for that, a plan for collecting both

primary and secondary data is presented where required survey methodology and sampling frame

for ease of data collection as well as the developed questionnaire based on the Heinzs needs for

the project. The then objective this report serves is the discussion of a range of techniques to

analyze data effectively for business purposes. Commonly used statistical techniques such as

measures of dispersion and others are implemented for summarizing, drawing conclusions and

information processing activities. Another objective of this report writing is increasing the ability

to produce information in appropriate formats for decision making and at the last portion the

proper planning of the project operation and financial feasibilities are discussed using the critical

path analysis method. Heinz business perspectives are implanted in those objectives for the ease

of discussion.

Page 20 of 23

Page 21 of 23

References

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Hahn, G. J. et al (1999) The Impact of Six Sigma Improvement-A Glimpse into the Future of

Statistics. The American Statistician, Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 208-215.

Haines, S (2008) The Product Manager's Desk Reference (1st ed) McGraw-Hill.

Pearson Education Limited.

Joachim, K. (2012). Social judgment and decision making. New York: Psychology Press.

Kreitner, R, and Angelo K. (2004) Organizational Behavior. (6th ed). Boston, MA: McGraw-

Hill/Irwin.

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Kingdom: Willey.

Peppers, D. and Rogers, M. (2008) Rules to Break and Laws to Follow. Wiley.

Power, D. (2009). Decision support basics. New York: Business Expert Press.

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Page 22 of 23

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5. Armstrong, G. & Kotler, P., (2013), Marketing: An Introduction (11th Ed.). Harlow: Pearson.

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Implementation, and Control. Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann.

9. Bouyssou, D., Dubois, D., & Prade, H. (2013). Decision making process: Concepts and

10. Hahn, G. J. et al (1999) The Impact of Six Sigma Improvement-A Glimpse into the Future of

Statistics. The American Statistician, Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 208-215.

11. Haines, S (2008) The Product Manager's Desk Reference (1st ed) McGraw-Hill.

12. Murty, G. (2010). Optimization for decision making: Linear and quadratic model. United

Kingdom: Willey.

13. Power, D. (2009). Decision support basics. New York: Business Expert Press.

14. Selden, P. H. (1998) Sales Process Engineering: An Emerging Quality Application. Quality

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